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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Want to bet on footage of that golden shower appearing on a porn site? Yes WEE Can
Paddy Power have some Donald Trump specials up, to be honest most of these appear to be taking the piss, as it were, and serve to act as an excellent way to contribute to Paddy Power’s bonus fund.
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https://twitter.com/hdevreij/status/820579325900685312
1/25 on the inauguration taking place must be value, he'll be surrounded by very tight security between now and then.
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/820638924737540096
"Well it's written by an American so stands more chance than most of being balanced."
A pretty good article.
Personally, I am glad that Hammond, of all people, is signaling back to the EU that threats can go both ways. Him saying it, as the 'dove' and 'soft Brexit' champion within the government, will have far more impact than Fox saying it.
Unlike the author, I think this does not necessarily increase the chances of Hard Brexit, but might work the other way - to level the playing field before the game starts, thereby giving more opportunity for a fairer game and hence a reasonable outcome.
But it could go either way. People are involved, ergo it is unpredictable.
Sometimes it's necessary to show a bit of ankle, but we're used to disseminating intelligence to parties who might be allies (coalition members, the French, the Israelis) but who we don't necessarily trust.
But like a big puddle of piss, once it is made it is liable to spread.
If such salacious material really does exist, then as soon as it's leaked it'll spray all over the internet.
Including, presumably, to all those naughty websites. Of which I, too, have no meaningful knowledge.
On impeachment, I'd want to check what the bookies think the word means. Bill Clinton was impeached; Richard Nixon was not: probably the average bookmaker in the street would have it the other way round.
Of course, sometimes the content might be such (report on discussions of a small meeting) that could reduce the number of suspects considerably.
So the answer if it is a real concern is to share with the administration only composite intelligence assessments, rather than raw intelligence reports.
I would be amazed if it really came to that (the vast bulk of the sharing is one way and to our benefit), and would expect, even if it did, for the spooks at the working level to sort something out.
PS Not something I'd ever imagined that I would be quoting on PB
Edward Boyle was Shadow Education Secretary under Heath until October 1969 when Thatcher was given the position. I recall speaking to him in the late 1970s when he brought up the subject of comprehensive schools himself. He seemed pretty passionate in his support for them
Better for UK Intelligence not to give the names of agents. Just give code names if anything.
"Snow says that nobody can consider themselves educated who doesn't know at least the basic language of Science. I mean, things like Sir Edward Boyle's Law, for example: the greater the external pressure, the greater the volume of hot air."
Tories 9% ahead of Labour.
I had to log off but nobody disproved my contention that for living standards, Eastern Europe (perhaps I should better have said Central Europe, because I mean Czech, Hungary, East Germany, Poland etc) are the best comparators for regions north of the Watford Gap.
GDP per capita is not right, you need PPP if you are comparing living standards. Also, removing Prague from Czech is cheating.
On a different note, this looks like good viewing for a wet Sunday afternoon: Brexit economics debate at the American Economics Association, featuring both pro and anti Brexiters.
https://www.aeaweb.org/webcasts/2017/brexit.php
The polling also carried a current “state of the parties” Westminster voting intention of CON 38% (-1); LAB 29% (NC); UKIP 13% (NC); LD 10% (+2); SNP 4% (-1); Green 2% (-2); Other 4% (+1) (chg. from 23rd Sept. 2016).
It is whether people believe it.
The poll also shows the Tories 3% ahead of Labour in Wales - which seems a bit unlikely.
Dates for the calendar.
21 Jan: International right-wing populist "European counter-summit" in Koblenz, Germany, hosted by Le Pen.
This is the day after Trump's inauguration. Attenders will include Matteo Salvini (Northern League), Geert Wilders (PfF), Tom Van Grieken (Vlaams Belang, Belgium), Norbert Hofer (Freedom Pary), Frauke Petry (AfD), and others of the same ilk from Denmark and Norway. Observers or others may come from the US Republicans and the Israeli Likud. Word is that Trump may speak by video link. Unclear whether Nigel Farage will attend.
Hypothesis: Le Pen sorted out some money in Trump Tower, and now we're going to find out what the money has bought.
1 Feb: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan launches his campaign
Don't underestimate this guy. He may only be at 1.5% in the polls now, but two months ago when Le Pen was at around 30% he was at around 5% and in a few polls touched 7%. If Le Pen's poll score starts climbing then his probably will too. If she gets into the second round and he doesn't then his votes will mainly go to her. If he does get into the second round - which looks very unlikely at the moment - he will win. Against Le Pen, the left would vote for him. Against another candidate, Le Pen supporters and many who respect much of Le Pen's manifesto but haven't bought into her party's detoxification will also vote for him.
4 Feb: Le Pen launches her campaign
But the "North" has stagnated. They have now met in the middle, give or take.
But both are still far short of the best Western European standards of living. We should aspire to better.
Despite it suffering a 30 year low level war, N. Ireland is wealthier than Wales: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Northern_Ireland.
It's had more government intervention than Wales has had.
West Germany merged with and modernised East Germany in a period of just over 20 years.
A clue there, Mrs. May? Or talk to Michael Heseltine about intervening before breakfast, lunch and dinner.
The reason I keep banging on about this is, of course, Brexit. Voting for Leave is correlated with being poorer, older, less educated, and "Northern".
But, going back to the Hammond interview, a hard Brexit implies an even *worse* dispensation toward the "North".
If I was giving advice to anyone under the age of 40 in, for eg, Newcastle, I'd say emigrate.
Now if you want to see some evidence about comparative living standards then go to a supermarket in Lincolnshire or South Yorkshire and you will hear the languages of Eastern Europe.
Now do you think the supermarkets of Eastern Europe have an equivalent level of British customers ?
If you want to compare PPP levels then you'll probably find that large amounts of Northern England are richer than London on account of much lower living costs.
Whereas the real East Germany is just 20% of the total German population.
your analysis of Brexit is just plain wrong every region in England voted out except for London
And as for Polish people in Lincolnshire, they are there for the jobs, opportunity, and the opportunity to remit valuable ££.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/15/509903805/after-146-years-ringling-bros-and-barnum-bailey-circus-to-shut-down
WRT Brexit, most of the South and East Anglia also voted in favour.
But I underestimated your tendency to try to make a Brextarded cheap shot.
its richer than Norhern Ireland which voted remain
in your desire to advance a flawed argument your are making huge generalities without undertsanding whats happenend.
WRT Brexit, I am talking correlation not binary outcome. The poorer the region, the more likely to vote Brexit.
Not sure why this is controversial, except perhaps that Brexiters on here may resent being lumped in with the less educated, poorer voters.
But it's true.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnbiVw_1FNs
I haven't, as an aside, listed "white". Ethnicity was less of an indicator that perhaps many Remainers think it was.
They have shows in Atlanta and Duluth in Feb - Mar. I feel a family circus trip coming on, even without the elephants.
As a kid I remember frequently going to Blackpool Tower Circus.
However, I love it here. It's clean, uncrowded, relatively inexpensive and beautiful. I used to work in Holborn: I chose to be a country mouse, and sacrificed the restaurants and culture of the city for a simpler, poorer life and a better environment for my children. Plenty of people like me, all over the country.
the daft argument that the uneducated voted out ignores the fact that so did the old.
my parents generation maybe had 5% of people go to uni
my generation maybe 25%
my kids 50%
education in this instance is a meaningless measure except that we can note the old and ignorant know how to vote and the young and educated appear not to.
1) Information stolen from the DNC/Hillary Clinton was published to influence the American election. This was done by Russian intelligence. This is bad.
2) Information has been provided by Russian intelligence to a private spook outfit, paid by the opponents of Donald Trump, to influence American politics. This is good.
France is notably worse without Greater Paris; Holland is notably worse without Greater Amsterdam; Italy is notably worse without Lombardy and Venezia; Spain is notably worse without Madrid and Catalonia; and so on.