politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now you can bet on how many LAB MPs will quit as during 2017

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

...
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic

There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of that happening (it would be completely illegal under EU law and directly contrary to the EU treaties). So either the report is garbage, or the Trump people claiming that are half-wits.

Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it?

I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?

And that is the awesome power the USA has, the $18 Trillion gorilla in the room.

That said I doubt they'd bother with this.

Richard_Nabavi said:

GIN1138 said:

Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!

I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?

No-one, but you can't agree a deal with a counterparty who is legally incapable of agreeing it, not to mention politically completely unwilling.

This is what I think is going to happen.

Trump will say we're not doing a trade deal with the EU but we will do one with individual countries.

He'll dangle the carrot.

He'll fast track a deal for the UK and other EU nations will look in enviously as our trade deal proves an amazing success. And gradually, one by one, individual EU states will start to break cover... And (like that) the EU will cease to exist.

The EU will matter... Until it becomes... Irrelevant.

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

GIN1138 said:

Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!

I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?

No-one, but you can't agree a deal with a counterparty who is legally incapable of agreeing it, not to mention politically completely unwilling.

This is what I think is going to happen.

Trump will say we're not doing a trade deal with the EU but we will do one with individual countries.

He'll dangle the carrot.

He'll fast track a deal for the UK and other EU nations will look in enviously as our trade deal proves an amazing success. And gradually, one by one, individual EU states will start to break cover... And (like that) the EU will cease to exist.

The EU will matter... Until it becomes... Irrelevant.

EU countries are bound by treaty not to do that, so they won't.

Rumours Hollande could back Macron, not necessarily good news for the latter
https://twitter.com/benjaminhaddad/status/820409090283278336

John_M said:

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

GIN1138 said:

Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!

I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?

No-one, but you can't agree a deal with a counterparty who is legally incapable of agreeing it, not to mention politically completely unwilling.

This is what I think is going to happen.

Trump will say we're not doing a trade deal with the EU but we will do one with individual countries.

He'll dangle the carrot.

He'll fast track a deal for the UK and other EU nations will look in enviously as our trade deal proves an amazing success. And gradually, one by one, individual EU states will start to break cover... And (like that) the EU will cease to exist.

The EU will matter... Until it becomes... Irrelevant.

EU countries are bound by treaty not to do that, so they won't.

You think so? National self interest will ALWAYS take priority in the end.

The EU won't die in one huge crisis moment. Instead it will just slowly but surely become irrelevant.

Nick Clegg comes out in support of Richard Tyndall.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/14/nick-clegg-theresa-may-norway-style-trade-deal-brexit-eu?CMP=twt_gu

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

Delicious.

But, as other posters have pointed out...

If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.

Within the margin of error of today.

Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).

It isn't fully priced in, which is why the exchange rate reacts to Theresa May repeating the obvious.

FWIW, my guess would be something like £1=$1.18 to $1.19 next Saturday. I don't know about the EUR rate, partly because I don't watch it so closely, and partly because the impact of a chaotic Brexit on the Eurozone is hard to assess.

Richard_Nabavi said:

glw said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.

She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.

Yes, it's weird. In particular, the financial markets still don't seem to have got it.

I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.

I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was probably a more risky proposition.

At least India is growing.

I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.

Floater said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Scott_P said:

foxinsoxuk said:

There is plenty of evidence that they are half wits!

https://twitter.com/zorasuleman/status/820416369854468096

A black man with a gun? In Trumpistan he is lucky not to have bulletholes.

Because black people weren't getting shot whilst Obama was in power, oh no.

Obama's legacy - Islamic State on the international front, and Black Lives Matter on the home front

Pong said:

I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.

I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.

At least India is growing.

I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.

That's a big bet on one currently relatively small and volatile market! I hope it works out - and it may well do - but personally I'd spread my risk around much more than that.

GIN1138 said:

And (like that) the EU will cease to exist....

Is this some special PB night where people put film references for me to find...?

surbiton said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

PBModerator said:

PBModerator said:

SeanT and other posters

Threatening/wishing death or violence to other PBers/politicians is a no no on PB.

Any comments like that see PBers have their ability to instantly publish revoked until they agree not to post such comments like that in the future.

Upon reflection and discussion, SeanT was joking, but in future can all PBers play nicely.

Goodnight

Well of course he was joking, duh!

Like he does when he is pissed out of his mind which is always.

PB po-faced brigade out in force tonight.


At college I had friend who were far more fun in any state than others at their best. Sean definitely falls into that category.

PBModerator said:

PBModerator said:

SeanT and other posters

Threatening/wishing death or violence to other PBers/politicians is a no no on PB.

Any comments like that see PBers have their ability to instantly publish revoked until they agree not to post such comments like that in the future.

Upon reflection and discussion, SeanT was joking, but in future can all PBers play nicely.

Goodnight

Crikey!

In Blackadder 2, Percy said 'Sorry I'm late' to which Edmund replied 'oh don't apologise, I'm sorry you're alive'

I repeated the joke to bobajob/last Boy Scout or whatever he was calling himself at the time, and got banned for a fortnight!

foxinsoxuk said:

Scott_P said:

foxinsoxuk said:

There is plenty of evidence that they are half wits!

https://twitter.com/zorasuleman/status/820416369854468096

A black man with a gun? In Trumpistan he is lucky not to have bulletholes.

Obama's legacy;
" Not long after he took office in 2009, a New York Times/CBS News poll suggested two-thirds of Americans regarded race relations as generally good. In the midst of last summer's racial turbulence, that poll found there had been a complete reversal. Now 69% of Americans assessed race relations to be mostly bad. "

Trump can hardly do worse in this area.

surbiton said:

Pong said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

glw said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.

She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.

Yes, it's weird. In particular, the financial markets still don't seem to have got it.

I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.

I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.

At least India is growing.

I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.

You have made a mistake. It is just not sterling which depreciates. Even the Bangladesh Taka will achieve parity with the Rupee within 3 years.

Good morning for Bangladesh in the cricket. New Zealand still bizarrely betting favourites.

isam said:

Lib Dems and Cons shorten/Ukip drift in Stoke

That 20/1 Cons not a bet?

I suggested earlier that Theresa May's decision should shift the bye election betting.

What is the point in UKIP and if you want to stop the process Lib Dems are the pro EU party

viewcode said:

GIN1138 said:

And (like that) the EU will cease to exist....

Is this some special PB night where people put film references for me to find...?

I don't know where you get your delusions, laser brain!

GIN1138 said:

viewcode said:

GIN1138 said:

And (like that) the EU will cease to exist....

Is this some special PB night where people put film references for me to find...?

I didn't think anybody would notice.

Will have to try harder.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pong said:

I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.

I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.

At least India is growing.

I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.

That's a big bet on one currently relatively small and volatile market! I hope it works out - and it may well do - but personally I'd spread my risk around much more than that.

lol. Yeah, it's wonderfully risky. I think the very long-term expected return (or whatever the financial speak is) - is much higher than a lot of UK investments though and i'm fully prepared (and semi-expecting!) to lose capital.

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

Delicious.

But, as other posters have pointed out...

If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.

Within the margin of error of today.

Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).

Aaargh.

I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.

It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.

I expect a drop against the dollar to about 1.18 but the euro may well fall as well so the euro maybe 1.12. However I am no expert and am not saying this will happen.

Also we need to see how the market moves over several days and weeks especially with the Euro

My son and his wife are visiting us fron Vancouver in early Feb so they should have a value for money trip

Pong said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pong said:

I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.

I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.

At least India is growing.

I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.

That's a big bet on one currently relatively small and volatile market! I hope it works out - and it may well do - but personally I'd spread my risk around much more than that.

lol. Yeah, it's wonderfully risky. I think the very long-term expected return (or whatever the financial speak is) - is much higher than a lot of UK investments though and i'm fully prepared (and semi-expecting!) to lose capital.

The eternal search for yield

Best of luck - I've invested some funds in this:

https://savingstream.co.uk?a=11425248 on a £2/day/loan sell as days approach zero basis.

Refusal to accept defeat nicely is not just a UK thing

https://twitter.com/dailymail/status/820421502378053633

Pulpstar said:

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

Delicious.

But, as other posters have pointed out...

If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.

Within the margin of error of today.

Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).

Aaargh.

I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.

It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.

What are you trying to achieve here ?

My face on the one dollar bill?

Treating your question seriously fo the moment. I am a statistician who works for an insurance company and my work sometimes leads me into modelling. I also have some side projects concerning prediction and its limits: how predictions are judged, what do we mean by a "good" prediction, and so on. So being able to predict outcomes and arrange matters to profit is important to me.

Brexit will involve changes and not necessarily to my benefit. Combine that with the fact that many people on here believe things that are at the least disputable (the "500,000 million" number quoted tonight, the "tariffs are income" line, the ineffable belief that the UK will not leave the EU despite a "leave" vote) and the situation is one recognizable to Clausewitz as fog and friction: things are more difficult than usual and the truth is clouded by comforting misapprehensions.

May's Tuesday speech is a point which may (pun!) cause a change that affects me. So I wish to do the following:
* Anticipate the outcome and act in a way to mitigate any disadvantages to myself
* Test my ability to do things despite risk of loss

So the answer to your question "What are you trying to achieve here ?" is "test my professional skills and personal determination by attempting to mitigate any loss consequent to the speech"

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

GIN1138 said:

Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!

I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?

No-one, but you can't agree a deal with a counterparty who is legally incapable of agreeing it, not to mention politically completely unwilling.

This is what I think is going to happen.

Trump will say we're not doing a trade deal with the EU but we will do one with individual countries.

He'll dangle the carrot.

He'll fast track a deal for the UK and other EU nations will look in enviously as our trade deal proves an amazing success. And gradually, one by one, individual EU states will start to break cover... And (like that) the EU will cease to exist.

The EU will matter... Until it becomes... Irrelevant.

Any such deal is likely to be loaded in America's favour. We should not accept it without studying the small print lest we are inundated with hormone-filled beef and sued in secret American courts.

viewcode said:

I am a statistician who works for an insurance company and my work sometimes leads me into modelling. I also have some side projects concerning prediction and its limits: how predictions are judged, what do we mean by a "good" prediction, and so on. So being able to predict outcomes and arrange matters to profit is important to me.

Brexit will involve changes and not necessarily to my benefit. Combine that with the fact that many people on here believe things that are at the least disputable (the "500,000 million" number quoted tonight, the "tariffs are income" line, the ineffable belief that the UK will not leave the EU despite a "leave" vote) and the situation is one recognizable to Clausewitz as fog and friction: things are more difficult than usual and the truth is clouded by comforting misapprehensions.

May's Tuesday speech is a point which may (pun!) cause a change that affects me. So I wish to do the following:
* Anticipate the outcome and act in a way to mitigate any disadvantages to myself
* Test my ability to do things despite risk of loss

So the answer to your question "What are you trying to achieve here ?" is "test my professional skills and personal determination by attempting to mitigate any loss consequent to the speech"

Have you considered taking a Finance degree to top up your stats one? You might find the content interesting - and professionally useful.

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

Delicious.

But, as other posters have pointed out...

If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.

Within the margin of error of today.

Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).

Aaargh.

I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.

It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.

What are you trying to achieve here ?

My face on the one dollar bill?

Treating your question seriously fo the moment. I am a statistician who works for an insurance company and my work sometimes leads me into modelling.

It's a Walk Off!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

Delicious.

But, as other posters have pointed out...

If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.

Within the margin of error of today.

Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).

Aaargh.

I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.

It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.

What are you trying to achieve here ?

My face on the one dollar bill?

Treating your question seriously fo the moment. I am a statistician who works for an insurance company and my work sometimes leads me into modelling.

It's a Walk Off!

The other kind of modelling...

Sunil_Prasannan said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

viewcode said:

Mortimer said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

Delicious.

But, as other posters have pointed out...

If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.

Within the margin of error of today.

Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).

Aaargh.

I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.

It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.

What are you trying to achieve here ?

My face on the one dollar bill?

Treating your question seriously fo the moment. I am a statistician who works for an insurance company and my work sometimes leads me into modelling.

It's a Walk Off!

The other kind of modelling...

Do I make you HORNBY, baby? Do I?

Thank you, Dr Sunil Danger Prasannan. The other, other type of modelling...

Pulpstar said:

surbiton said:

Pong said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

glw said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.

She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.

Yes, it's weird. In particular, the financial markets still don't seem to have got it.

I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.

I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.

At least India is growing.

I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.

You have made a mistake. It is just not sterling which depreciates. Even the Bangladesh Taka will achieve parity with the Rupee within 3 years.

Good morning for Bangladesh in the cricket. New Zealand still bizarrely betting favourites.

Bangladesh at 64-1 to win...?