... If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of that happening (it would be completely illegal under EU law and directly contrary to the EU treaties). So either the report is garbage, or the Trump people claiming that are half-wits.
Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it?
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?
And that is the awesome power the USA has, the $18 Trillion gorilla in the room.
The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Juncker
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!
I thought you wanted out anyway. The EU will be in panic - make no mistake they have 100 billion of trade and jobs on this.
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
I do want hard Brexit as a planned event rather than a carcrash hard Brexit where nothing happens til the last minute.
Agreeing with the EU starting position is hardly tough negotiating.
Juncker: No single market if no free movement!
May: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
Juncker: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
May gets down on all fours...
Or
May: No single market if no immigration controls!
Junker: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
May: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
Junker gets down on all fours
May doesn't have 27 friends so it doesn't work that way.
At least we know where we stand., and at least we have all that lovely £350 million per week for the NHS to look forward to.
Neither does Junker.
And you only get that extra £350m a week if you persuade the voters that they should spend it on the NHS rather than something else (or give themselves a tax cut).
Perhaps you could try emulating Richard Taylor in Leicester East - more money for the NHS and the end to Keith Vaz.
Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?
No-one, but you can't agree a deal with a counterparty who is legally incapable of agreeing it, not to mention politically completely unwilling.
This is what I think is going to happen.
Trump will say we're not doing a trade deal with the EU but we will do one with individual countries.
He'll dangle the carrot.
He'll fast track a deal for the UK and other EU nations will look in enviously as our trade deal proves an amazing success. And gradually, one by one, individual EU states will start to break cover... And (like that) the EU will cease to exist.
The EU will matter... Until it becomes... Irrelevant.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
... If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of that happening (it would be completely illegal under EU law and directly contrary to the EU treaties). So either the report is garbage, or the Trump people claiming that are half-wits.
Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it?
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?
The EU will.
If Trump's people think the EU is like NAFTA or ASEAN they need to be educated.
The EU ...........hahahahahahahahaha!
It's 27 different nations at odds with each other.
One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.
She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.
Yes, it's weird. In particular, the financial markets still don't seem to have got it.
Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?
No-one, but you can't agree a deal with a counterparty who is legally incapable of agreeing it, not to mention politically completely unwilling.
This is what I think is going to happen.
Trump will say we're not doing a trade deal with the EU but we will do one with individual countries.
He'll dangle the carrot.
He'll fast track a deal for the UK and other EU nations will look in enviously as our trade deal proves an amazing success. And gradually, one by one, individual EU states will start to break cover... And (like that) the EU will cease to exist.
The EU will matter... Until it becomes... Irrelevant.
EU countries are bound by treaty not to do that, so they won't.
Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?
No-one, but you can't agree a deal with a counterparty who is legally incapable of agreeing it, not to mention politically completely unwilling.
This is what I think is going to happen.
Trump will say we're not doing a trade deal with the EU but we will do one with individual countries.
He'll dangle the carrot.
He'll fast track a deal for the UK and other EU nations will look in enviously as our trade deal proves an amazing success. And gradually, one by one, individual EU states will start to break cover... And (like that) the EU will cease to exist.
The EU will matter... Until it becomes... Irrelevant.
EU countries are bound by treaty not to do that, so they won't.
You think so? National self interest will ALWAYS take priority in the end.
The EU won't die in one huge crisis moment. Instead it will just slowly but surely become irrelevant.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?
No-one, but you can't agree a deal with a counterparty who is legally incapable of agreeing it, not to mention politically completely unwilling.
This is what I think is going to happen.
Trump will say we're not doing a trade deal with the EU but we will do one with individual countries.
He'll dangle the carrot.
He'll fast track a deal for the UK and other EU nations will look in enviously as our trade deal proves an amazing success. And gradually, one by one, individual EU states will start to break cover... And (like that) the EU will cease to exist.
The EU will matter... Until it becomes... Irrelevant.
EU countries are bound by treaty not to do that, so they won't.
You think so? National self interest will ALWAYS take priority in the end.
The EU won't die in one huge crisis moment. Instead it will just slowly but surely become irrelevant.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
It isn't fully priced in, which is why the exchange rate reacts to Theresa May repeating the obvious.
FWIW, my guess would be something like £1=$1.18 to $1.19 next Saturday. I don't know about the EUR rate, partly because I don't watch it so closely, and partly because the impact of a chaotic Brexit on the Eurozone is hard to assess.
One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.
She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.
Yes, it's weird. In particular, the financial markets still don't seem to have got it.
I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.
I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was probably a more risky proposition.
At least India is growing.
I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.
One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.
She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.
Yes, it's weird. In particular, the financial markets still don't seem to have got it.
I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.
I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.
At least India is growing.
I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.
You have made a mistake. It is just not sterling which depreciates. Even the Bangladesh Taka will achieve parity with the Rupee within 3 years.
I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.
I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.
At least India is growing.
I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.
That's a big bet on one currently relatively small and volatile market! I hope it works out - and it may well do - but personally I'd spread my risk around much more than that.
... If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of that happening (it would be completely illegal under EU law and directly contrary to the EU treaties). So either the report is garbage, or the Trump people claiming that are half-wits.
There is a belief that Trump is anti EU but pro individual Countries. The possibilty is zero but it is another issue to cause real stress in Europe
That's odd, why would he want to do that? On ideology he's further left than Macron and in any case closer to Valls. It was Macron that quit the cabinet and undermined Hollandes authority. Valls stuck it out mostly loyally. The only reason I can see is that Hollande knows he's toxic and wants to deliberately poison macarons campaign with an endorsement!
The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Juncker
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!
I thought you wanted out anyway. The EU will be in panic - make no mistake they have 100 billion of trade and jobs on this.
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
I do want hard Brexit as a planned event rather than a carcrash hard Brexit where nothing happens til the last minute.
Agreeing with the EU starting position is hardly tough negotiating.
Juncker: No single market if no free movement!
May: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
Juncker: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
May gets down on all fours...
She has not said she wants no single market access just that she could be prepared to give up full membership of the single market to control free movement. If she showed she was not willing to do so the EU would inevitably try to force the UK to capitulate instead she has made clear the boundaries within which both sides will be working for any trade deal
It is not tough negotiating to agree the other parties starting position.
It is probably for the best, probably inevitable, and probably quicker to conclude; but tough, my arse!
Except you entirely misunderstand the EU's negotiating position. FOM is what they want, membership of the single market is what they think we want. Making it clear that we're less bothered about single market than restricting FOM is exactly the opposite of agreeing to their negotiating position. You would be correct if the EU's position was to eject us from the single market as an objective in itself, but that is not their position at all.
A black man with a gun? In Trumpistan he is lucky not to have bulletholes.
Obama's legacy; " Not long after he took office in 2009, a New York Times/CBS News poll suggested two-thirds of Americans regarded race relations as generally good. In the midst of last summer's racial turbulence, that poll found there had been a complete reversal. Now 69% of Americans assessed race relations to be mostly bad. "
One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.
She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.
Yes, it's weird. In particular, the financial markets still don't seem to have got it.
I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.
I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.
At least India is growing.
I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.
You have made a mistake. It is just not sterling which depreciates. Even the Bangladesh Taka will achieve parity with the Rupee within 3 years.
Good morning for Bangladesh in the cricket. New Zealand still bizarrely betting favourites.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Aaargh.
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Aaargh.
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.
I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.
At least India is growing.
I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.
That's a big bet on one currently relatively small and volatile market! I hope it works out - and it may well do - but personally I'd spread my risk around much more than that.
lol. Yeah, it's wonderfully risky. I think the very long-term expected return (or whatever the financial speak is) - is much higher than a lot of UK investments though and i'm fully prepared (and semi-expecting!) to lose capital.
That's odd, why would he want to do that? On ideology he's further left than Macron and in any case closer to Valls. It was Macron that quit the cabinet and undermined Hollandes authority. Valls stuck it out mostly loyally. The only reason I can see is that Hollande knows he's toxic and wants to deliberately poison macarons campaign with an endorsement!
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Aaargh.
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
I expect a drop against the dollar to about 1.18 but the euro may well fall as well so the euro maybe 1.12. However I am no expert and am not saying this will happen.
Also we need to see how the market moves over several days and weeks especially with the Euro
My son and his wife are visiting us fron Vancouver in early Feb so they should have a value for money trip
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Aaargh.
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
Using GBP to buy USD at the moment is absolutely daft. I currently get paid in USD (so falling GBP is fantastic for me) and can't open a brokerage account with my employer soon enough (to buy GBP at spot rather than on a big spread), as I'm pretty sure GBP is pretty close to as low as it will get against USD. Selling GPB for USD now is selling at the bottom of the market.
I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.
I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.
At least India is growing.
I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.
That's a big bet on one currently relatively small and volatile market! I hope it works out - and it may well do - but personally I'd spread my risk around much more than that.
lol. Yeah, it's wonderfully risky. I think the very long-term expected return (or whatever the financial speak is) - is much higher than a lot of UK investments though and i'm fully prepared (and semi-expecting!) to lose capital.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Aaargh.
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
Treating your question seriously fo the moment. I am a statistician who works for an insurance company and my work sometimes leads me into modelling. I also have some side projects concerning prediction and its limits: how predictions are judged, what do we mean by a "good" prediction, and so on. So being able to predict outcomes and arrange matters to profit is important to me.
Brexit will involve changes and not necessarily to my benefit. Combine that with the fact that many people on here believe things that are at the least disputable (the "500,000 million" number quoted tonight, the "tariffs are income" line, the ineffable belief that the UK will not leave the EU despite a "leave" vote) and the situation is one recognizable to Clausewitz as fog and friction: things are more difficult than usual and the truth is clouded by comforting misapprehensions.
May's Tuesday speech is a point which may (pun!) cause a change that affects me. So I wish to do the following: * Anticipate the outcome and act in a way to mitigate any disadvantages to myself * Test my ability to do things despite risk of loss
So the answer to your question "What are you trying to achieve here ?" is "test my professional skills and personal determination by attempting to mitigate any loss consequent to the speech"
Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?
No-one, but you can't agree a deal with a counterparty who is legally incapable of agreeing it, not to mention politically completely unwilling.
This is what I think is going to happen.
Trump will say we're not doing a trade deal with the EU but we will do one with individual countries.
He'll dangle the carrot.
He'll fast track a deal for the UK and other EU nations will look in enviously as our trade deal proves an amazing success. And gradually, one by one, individual EU states will start to break cover... And (like that) the EU will cease to exist.
The EU will matter... Until it becomes... Irrelevant.
Any such deal is likely to be loaded in America's favour. We should not accept it without studying the small print lest we are inundated with hormone-filled beef and sued in secret American courts.
I am a statistician who works for an insurance company and my work sometimes leads me into modelling. I also have some side projects concerning prediction and its limits: how predictions are judged, what do we mean by a "good" prediction, and so on. So being able to predict outcomes and arrange matters to profit is important to me.
Brexit will involve changes and not necessarily to my benefit. Combine that with the fact that many people on here believe things that are at the least disputable (the "500,000 million" number quoted tonight, the "tariffs are income" line, the ineffable belief that the UK will not leave the EU despite a "leave" vote) and the situation is one recognizable to Clausewitz as fog and friction: things are more difficult than usual and the truth is clouded by comforting misapprehensions.
May's Tuesday speech is a point which may (pun!) cause a change that affects me. So I wish to do the following: * Anticipate the outcome and act in a way to mitigate any disadvantages to myself * Test my ability to do things despite risk of loss
So the answer to your question "What are you trying to achieve here ?" is "test my professional skills and personal determination by attempting to mitigate any loss consequent to the speech"
Have you considered taking a Finance degree to top up your stats one? You might find the content interesting - and professionally useful.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Aaargh.
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
I am a statistician who works for an insurance company and my work sometimes leads me into modelling. I also have some side projects concerning prediction and its limits: how predictions are judged, what do we mean by a "good" prediction, and so on. So being able to predict outcomes and arrange matters to profit is important to me.
Brexit will involve changes and not necessarily to my benefit. Combine that with the fact that many people on here believe things that are at the least disputable (the "500,000 million" number quoted tonight, the "tariffs are income" line, the ineffable belief that the UK will not leave the EU despite a "leave" vote) and the situation is one recognizable to Clausewitz as fog and friction: things are more difficult than usual and the truth is clouded by comforting misapprehensions.
May's Tuesday speech is a point which may (pun!) cause a change that affects me. So I wish to do the following: * Anticipate the outcome and act in a way to mitigate any disadvantages to myself * Test my ability to do things despite risk of loss
So the answer to your question "What are you trying to achieve here ?" is "test my professional skills and personal determination by attempting to mitigate any loss consequent to the speech"
Have you considered taking a Finance degree to top up your stats one? You might find the content interesting - and professionally useful.
It's been suggested: some City University courses seem interesting. But I don't have a lot of free time.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Aaargh.
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Aaargh.
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Aaargh.
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
If I understand correctly your colleagues are currency dealers. GBP/USD is currently £1=$1.218, and GBP/EUR is £1=$1.14. Care to hazard a guess as to where it will be next Saturday? Now's your chance to get major bragging rights on PB if you get it right.
Within the margin of error of today.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
Aaargh.
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.
She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.
Yes, it's weird. In particular, the financial markets still don't seem to have got it.
I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.
I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.
At least India is growing.
I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.
You have made a mistake. It is just not sterling which depreciates. Even the Bangladesh Taka will achieve parity with the Rupee within 3 years.
Good morning for Bangladesh in the cricket. New Zealand still bizarrely betting favourites.
One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.
She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.
Yes, it's weird. In particular, the financial markets still don't seem to have got it.
I invested half of my POTUS winnings in the Indian stock market last week.
I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was actually a more risky proposition.
At least India is growing.
I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.
You have made a mistake. It is just not sterling which depreciates. Even the Bangladesh Taka will achieve parity with the Rupee within 3 years.
Good morning for Bangladesh in the cricket. New Zealand still bizarrely betting favourites.
Bangladesh at 64-1 to win...?
To win, they need another ten wickets, there's only one day left. Back the draw.
Comments
That said I doubt they'd bother with this.
And you only get that extra £350m a week if you persuade the voters that they should spend it on the NHS rather than something else (or give themselves a tax cut).
Perhaps you could try emulating Richard Taylor in Leicester East - more money for the NHS and the end to Keith Vaz.
Trump will say we're not doing a trade deal with the EU but we will do one with individual countries.
He'll dangle the carrot.
He'll fast track a deal for the UK and other EU nations will look in enviously as our trade deal proves an amazing success. And gradually, one by one, individual EU states will start to break cover... And (like that) the EU will cease to exist.
The EU will matter... Until it becomes... Irrelevant.
It's 27 different nations at odds with each other.
https://twitter.com/benjaminhaddad/status/820409090283278336
The EU won't die in one huge crisis moment. Instead it will just slowly but surely become irrelevant.
Brexit is priced in, despite the best wishes of Remainers everywhere (and especially here).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/14/nick-clegg-theresa-may-norway-style-trade-deal-brexit-eu?CMP=twt_gu
FWIW, my guess would be something like £1=$1.18 to $1.19 next Saturday. I don't know about the EUR rate, partly because I don't watch it so closely, and partly because the impact of a chaotic Brexit on the Eurozone is hard to assess.
Goodnight
In the words of Roy Orbison - It's Over.
Yet another leave poster banned.
I figured having it sitting in the bank in sterling (or in UK shares) during Brexit was probably a more risky proposition.
At least India is growing.
I'll check back in ten years to see if I made a mistake.
At college I had friend who were far more fun in any state than others at their best. Sean definitely falls into that category.
In Blackadder 2, Percy said 'Sorry I'm late' to which Edmund replied 'oh don't apologise, I'm sorry you're alive'
I repeated the joke to bobajob/last Boy Scout or whatever he was calling himself at the time, and got banned for a fortnight!
" Not long after he took office in 2009, a New York Times/CBS News poll suggested two-thirds of Americans regarded race relations as generally good. In the midst of last summer's racial turbulence, that poll found there had been a complete reversal. Now 69% of Americans assessed race relations to be mostly bad. "
Trump can hardly do worse in this area.
That 20/1 Cons not a bet?
Will have to try harder.
What is the point in UKIP and if you want to stop the process Lib Dems are the pro EU party
I opened a USD account and I've managed to gather £4K into a GB account that I can transfer in. The spread is hidden in the exchange rate ("no fees" my ass), so each transfer costs about 3cents: a midpoint of £1=$1.21 implies a sell at $1.18 and a buy at $1.24 (I think that's the right way round). So if GBP falls to $1.15 or below I start making a profit, but if it doesn't move I lose about £200 just thru there-and-back costs.
It might be worth moving it just on insurance grounds. I shall have a think.
Also we need to see how the market moves over several days and weeks especially with the Euro
My son and his wife are visiting us fron Vancouver in early Feb so they should have a value for money trip
Best of luck - I've invested some funds in this:
https://savingstream.co.uk?a=11425248 on a £2/day/loan sell as days approach zero basis.
Turkey's membership of NATO under threat.
Never mind we got the 'Donald' to deal with it shortly
https://twitter.com/dailymail/status/820421502378053633
Treating your question seriously fo the moment. I am a statistician who works for an insurance company and my work sometimes leads me into modelling. I also have some side projects concerning prediction and its limits: how predictions are judged, what do we mean by a "good" prediction, and so on. So being able to predict outcomes and arrange matters to profit is important to me.
Brexit will involve changes and not necessarily to my benefit. Combine that with the fact that many people on here believe things that are at the least disputable (the "500,000 million" number quoted tonight, the "tariffs are income" line, the ineffable belief that the UK will not leave the EU despite a "leave" vote) and the situation is one recognizable to Clausewitz as fog and friction: things are more difficult than usual and the truth is clouded by comforting misapprehensions.
May's Tuesday speech is a point which may (pun!) cause a change that affects me. So I wish to do the following:
* Anticipate the outcome and act in a way to mitigate any disadvantages to myself
* Test my ability to do things despite risk of loss
So the answer to your question "What are you trying to achieve here ?" is "test my professional skills and personal determination by attempting to mitigate any loss consequent to the speech"
Thank you for your responses: I appreciate it.