politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Article 50 can’t be invoked, surely, without the country knowi

@pulpstar
Indeed, it would be useful and I don't understand why BVA did not do it last week (they only did Fillon/ Le Pen and Macron / Le Pen)

@HYUFD
Valls or Macron supporters would certainly bring more votes to Fillon but even Mélenchon supporters would mostly support Fillon or not vote. Le Pen transfers from the left remain very low.

In the last IFOP second round polling for a Fillon Le Pen scenario
Melenchon voters would split Fillon 31 Le Pen 14 No vote 55
Valls voters: Fillon 42 Le Pen 12 No vote 46
Macron voters: Fillon 58 Le Pen 10 No vote 32

The unbelievably stupid Alix Culbertson (I've never heard of her before, but anyway) of the Express seems to think (although I doubt whether she is capable of "thinking" at all, in any meaningful sense which we humans would understand) that the Mayor of Rome is the Mayor of the Vatican City

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/743558/Rome-war-migrants-poor-Italians-Vatican-City-Virginia-Raggi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwZ37MnYbiw

By chance I also recently found the (translated) script of the speech. Even with no knowledge of Albanian, it is easy to follow because of the large number of proper names.

From pages 624, 628 and 629: https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/hoxha/works/ebooks/sw/vol6.pdf

We tell the Great Serbs, the secret firm friends of the Russians, that there are two ways for the Russo-Bulgarian revisionists to attack Albania in order to reach our part of the Adriatic coast. The one way is through the Vardar and Kosova and the other through the Straits of Otranto. In the first case, without the slightest doubt, the whole Albanian people living in Kosova and other regions of Yugoslavia — in Skopje and Kaçanik , in Tetova and Gostivar, in Llap and Plava-Gucia , will meet the aggressors with guns. (Applause) The whole of Yugoslavia will be ablaze and the Russo-Bulgarian revisionist invaders, if they ever succeed in reaching our Alps, will be in the same shape as the German Nazis after the battle of Stalingrad.

In the second case, we Albanians hold the key to the Straits of Otranto. Sazan Island and the Karaburun Peninsula — and do not fear that I am revealing any secret, are rocks clad in iron and concrete which the Soviet naval fleet cannot pass. (Applause, "The Party! Enver! We are ready any time!")

If our Russo-Bulgarian enemies and others want to embark on such adventures they ought to know that the Albanians are not a state of three million, but a nation of six million people. (Applause) Ours was a small people in the time of the Second World War, but although alone and unarmed, they defeated and liquidated a considerable number of Italian fascist and German Nazi divisions. Now the times have changed in favour of socialist Albania, hence: Hands off Albania! (Applause)

Albania threatens nobody, it wants to live in friendship with the others but, if anyone violates its rights and borders, it will retaliate in kind . Likewise , it will reply in the sternest manner to the injustices or insults anybody might employ against it.

Rogue One is awesome. That is all.

@TSE worth seeing in IMAX 3-D?

@JohnLoony
Awesome, thank you very much.

RobD said:

@TSE.. you know what is also awesome? Having a quote button...

I'll get my coat.

It works via the vanilla forums.

AndyJS said:

"Donald Trump is facing growing pressure to respond to the alleged hack of the election by the Russians as new reports say Vladimir Putin was "directly tied" to the cyber attack.

NBC news reported that the Russian president was personally involved in the attempt to disrupt the election, according to two anonymous intelligence officials.

The motives for the alleged cyber attack were multifaceted. Mr Putin had a "vendetta" against Hillary Clinton, and this morphed into a desire to highlight corruption in American politics and split off key US allies, according to Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-russian-cyber-attack-rex-tillerson-vladimir-putin-hacking-election-vendetta-hillary-a7476096.html

What are they expecting Trump to say, that he's sorry his political opponent was as shit at using email for their campaign, as their candidate was when she held office?

If the Democrats are trying to infer that Trump might have had something to do with the Russian hacking, the best thing he can say on the subject is nothing at all.

Paging Roger

Will make trying to bet on a winner interesting

"BAFTA is bringing in diversity rules which films will have to comply with to be eligible for two of its top annual awards. From 2019 it will be a requirement that films put forward for the Outstanding British Film and Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer categories must meet the new criteria. The academy said the 'significant change' demonstrated its intention to take a leading role in 'increasing the representation of under-represented groups in front of and behind the camera"

"A Bafta spokesman said: 'Under-represented groups in the film industry include people from minority ethnic backgrounds, disabled people, women and LGBT [lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender]. It also includes people from lower socio-economic groups."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4035358/The-oh-trendy-diversity-rules-mean-Bond-never-win-Baftas-today-Organisation-introduces-new-guidelines-means-movies-meet-criteria-qualify-awards.html#ixzz4St1KfrpW

Bromptonaut said:

Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..

And this proposed EU rule change would be consistent with the Single Market how?

Its complete nonsense anyway. London manages to buy and sell more US dollars than New York every day despite supposedly not being able to clear US dollars outside the US.

This lack of a quote button is annoying.

test

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

@TSE.. you know what is also awesome? Having a quote button...

I'll get my coat.

It works via the vanilla forums.

I only use the vanilla forums view these days. I hate reading threads from last to first.

The last shall be first and the first shall be last!

foxinsoxuk said:

Bromptonaut said:

Monksfield said:

Bromptonaut said:

Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..

Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)

Or look up admiring the view?

Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?

foxinsoxuk said:

Bromptonaut said:

Monksfield said:

Bromptonaut said:

Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..

Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)

Or look up admiring the view?

....at those who have constantly looked down on us for 40 odd years.

No change then.

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Bromptonaut said:

Monksfield said:

Bromptonaut said:

Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..

Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)

Or look up admiring the view?

Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?

Very much so!.

Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.

Moses_ said:

i can see the headlines now.....

Britains decision to leave the EU could mean low scores are received in Eurovision.

positive news then as at least we would do better than we normally do.

"We haven't left yet though"

Mass exodus of celebrities in the wake of Brexit could lead to the end of Strictly Come Dancing, experts have said.

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Bromptonaut said:

Monksfield said:

Bromptonaut said:

Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..

Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)

Or look up admiring the view?

Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?

Very much so!.

Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.

On the latter point I completely agree. The day after the decision of the Supreme Court comes out would be a good day if the government wins. The day after the Bill is raced through Parliament if they don't. This uncertainty and refusal in many parts to accept it is ever going to happen does not help anyone.

On the former point attempts by the French to limit Euro trading to the EZ have so far been unsuccessful. A repeat of those attempts without the UK there to stop them is indeed possible even if it is unlikely to be effective. The remaining non Euro countries would need to have a serious think about the implications of that.

Sausages may be officially shorter in the wake of Brexit, according to Mark Carney's team at the BOE.

Bromptonaut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Bromptonaut said:

Monksfield said:

Bromptonaut said:

Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..

Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)

Or look up admiring the view?

Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?

Very much so!.

Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.

Yes, let's not delay taking this irrevocable (?) step that is likely to make things worse.

It may well make things worse, but it is a stupid decision democratically arrived at, so should be implemented ASAP.

Democracy delayed is Democracy denied.

Jonathan said:

The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

Mostly by doing bugger all. Its almost as if May, Hammond and Johnson don't want to leave at all...

The best way to have avoided a referendum was just not to have called one. As Shipman relates, George Osborne certainly thought so. To answer the referendum question properly you need to go far back. Oliver quotes Nicholas Soames, who puts the main point in his usually colourful way: “If you have an Alsatian sitting in front of you and it growls at you and bares its teeth, there are two ways of dealing with it. You can pat it on the head, in which case it’ll bite you, or you can kick it really hard in the balls, in which case it’ll run away.” David Cameron should have chosen the moment of his maximum strength, soon after becoming Tory leader, to kick the Alsatian in the balls. He didn’t.

Cameron then misread the politics, yielding to the demands for a referendum because he exaggerated the threat of losing office in 2015. It’s not really true, as Oliver suggests, that the country would have become ungovernable if the Tories had not promised a referendum in their 2015 manifesto. The correct reading of the last parliament is that it was a search to find a way not to make Ed Miliband prime minister. Cameron should have chillaxed. The threat to the Tories from Ukip was never existential. Plenty of his MPs were wittering in that vein but they were all wrong and should have been faced down.

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/brexit-european-union-book-review-tim-shipman-daniel-hannan

Where were you for the great quoting crisis of December 2016?

AlastairMeeks said:

Where were you for the great quoting crisis of December 2016?

Here.....

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Where were you for the great quoting crisis of December 2016?

Remoaners still have access to the secret quote facility...

It's a conspiracy!

I remember during SINDYREF one of the Nats was convinced only Unionists could edit posts! Which is ironic considering how the SNP specialises in time travel.....

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Bromptonaut said:

Monksfield said:

Bromptonaut said:

Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..

Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)

Or look up admiring the view?

Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?

Very much so!.

Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.

On the latter point I completely agree. The day after the decision of the Supreme Court comes out would be a good day if the government wins. The day after the Bill is raced through Parliament if they don't. This uncertainty and refusal in many parts to accept it is ever going to happen does not help anyone.

On the former point attempts by the French to limit Euro trading to the EZ have so far been unsuccessful. A repeat of those attempts without the UK there to stop them is indeed possible even if it is unlikely to be effective. The remaining non Euro countries would need to have a serious think about the implications of that.

People mix up clearing and settlement (payments).

Payments the ECB has complete control over. Clearing there is a fight to be had but we only kept it last time because we were in the single market.

Bromptonaut said:

Jonathan said:

The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.

Remainers should absolutely hate Cameron for his incompetence and poor judgement.

He didn't have to hold a referendum, but he had all the tools at his disposal to win it, he called one anyway and lost it.

Even then he was the right person to handle our departure, and could have negotiated a softish brexit before retiring at the next GE.

Instead he had a crap in a paper bag, put it on the doorstep of No 10, set the bag alight and ran away shouting 'fire' as Theresa May moseyed up in her kitten heels.

isam said:

Bromptonaut said:

Jonathan said:

The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.

Remainers should absolutely hate Cameron for his incompetence and poor judgement.

He didn't have to hold a referendum, but he had all the tools at his disposal to win it, he called one anyway and lost it.

Even then he was the right person to handle our departure, and could have negotiated a softish brexit before retiring at the next GE.

Instead he had a crap in a paper bag, put it on the doorstep of No 10, set the bag alight and ran away shouting 'fire' as Theresa May moseyed up in her kitten heels.

The bag is still burning, giving off an almighty stink and beginning to catch the surroundings.

Given the Euro is the currency of the EU it is astonishing they never led the way in transactions of it in the first place

Spot the difference:

' The threat of a potential vote to leave the EU in June could be partly to blame for the first rise in unemployment in seven months, the work and pensions secretary has warned.

Stephen Crabb said the latest labour report, which showed the unemployment total rose by 21,000 in the three months to February to 1.7 million, was a signal that the looming EU referendum vote was hitting the jobs market. '

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/20/uk-unemployment-rises-and-pay-growth-falls

' UK unemployment fell slightly to 1.62 million in the three months to October, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

It meant the unemployment rate held steady at 4.8% in the period, remaining at an 11-year low. '

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38313110

Have we had any comment from Stephen Crabb on the most recent unemployment figures ? It may not be his job anymore but I believe he has plenty of time on his hands these days.

Sandpit Former Ambassador Craig Murray has now said most of the leaks from the DNC came from disgruntled Sanders' supporters

Scott_P said:

The best way to have avoided a referendum was just not to have called one. As Shipman relates, George Osborne certainly thought so. To answer the referendum question properly you need to go far back. Oliver quotes Nicholas Soames, who puts the main point in his usually colourful way: “If you have an Alsatian sitting in front of you and it growls at you and bares its teeth, there are two ways of dealing with it. You can pat it on the head, in which case it’ll bite you, or you can kick it really hard in the balls, in which case it’ll run away.” David Cameron should have chosen the moment of his maximum strength, soon after becoming Tory leader, to kick the Alsatian in the balls. He didn’t.

Cameron then misread the politics, yielding to the demands for a referendum because he exaggerated the threat of losing office in 2015. It’s not really true, as Oliver suggests, that the country would have become ungovernable if the Tories had not promised a referendum in their 2015 manifesto. The correct reading of the last parliament is that it was a search to find a way not to make Ed Miliband prime minister. Cameron should have chillaxed. The threat to the Tories from Ukip was never existential. Plenty of his MPs were wittering in that vein but they were all wrong and should have been faced down.

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/brexit-european-union-book-review-tim-shipman-daniel-hannan

Cameron certainly could have purged the eurosceptics when he became leader, but they'd have ended up voting and campaigning for UKIP.

You know a man by his friends
Another Labour insider described Ms Fisher's appointment as "a self-inflicted punishment beating".
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/81752/jeremy-corbyn-defends-giving-key

isam said:

Bromptonaut said:

Jonathan said:

The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.

Remainers should absolutely hate Cameron for his incompetence and poor judgement.

He didn't have to hold a referendum, but he had all the tools at his disposal to win it, he called one anyway and lost it.

Even then he was the right person to handle our departure, and could have negotiated a softish brexit before retiring at the next GE.

Instead he had a crap in a paper bag, put it on the doorstep of No 10, set the bag alight and ran away shouting 'fire' as Theresa May moseyed up in her kitten heels.

He'd have been kicked out by his party. Some wanted him out even if he won. But definitely if he lost they all knew he'd not last if he tried to stay. Yesh, they pretended otherwise, but that was one of those political white lies.

If there's one person unaffected by this quote button problem, it's mr dancer alright.

Plato Agreed

' Cameron certainly could have purged the eurosceptics when he became leader, but they'd have ended up voting and campaigning for UKIP. '

Cameron postured as the EUsceptic candidate in the Conservative leadership contest.

The inconvenient fact for the likes of Clarke, Soames, Soubry and Osborne is that the Conservatives are a fundamentally EUsceptic party.

Imagine how many Conservative MPs would have supported Remain if Cameron had chosen Leave (as he should have done after being humiliated by Merkel).

Would it have been 5% ? 10% ? 15% ? Certainly it would have been below 20%.

isam said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

Bromptonaut said:

Jonathan said:

The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.

Remainers should absolutely hate Cameron for his incompetence and poor judgement.

He didn't have to hold a referendum, but he had all the tools at his disposal to win it, he called one anyway and lost it.

Even then he was the right person to handle our departure, and could have negotiated a softish brexit before retiring at the next GE.

Instead he had a crap in a paper bag, put it on the doorstep of No 10, set the bag alight and ran away shouting 'fire' as Theresa May moseyed up in her kitten heels.

He'd have been kicked out by his party. Some wanted him out even if he won. But definitely if he lost they all knew he'd not last if he tried to stay. Yesh, they pretended otherwise, but that was one of those political white lies.

He'd already said he was going at the next GE, he should have stayed and negotiated a soft brexit that would have placated the people now known as 'remoaners'. It would have been better for the country and, as a PM who campaigned heavily for Remain, I think he had a mandate for a soft brexit. Hard leavers who didn't like him would be placated by the fact he kept his word and took us out.

I'd have preferred he stayed on too, but we'll have to agree to disagree on whether, had he wanted to, he'd have been let to. Personally I think it's a shame former pms dont generally stick around. It'd have been a distraction first up, but it'd have been interesting to see him in the cabinet.

another_richard said:

' Cameron certainly could have purged the eurosceptics when he became leader, but they'd have ended up voting and campaigning for UKIP. '

Cameron postured as the EUsceptic candidate in the Conservative leadership contest.

The inconvenient fact for the likes of Clarke, Soames, Soubry and Osborne is that the Conservatives are a fundamentally EUsceptic party.

Imagine how many Conservative MPs would have supported Remain if Cameron had chosen Leave (as he should have done after being humiliated by Merkel).

Would it have been 5% ? 10% ? 15% ? Certainly it would have been below 20%.

Difficult to say. I have to say I think people are a little harsh on Tory MPs and act like most of them did not really support the position they said they did. Almost half went against their leader, if ever there was safety in numbers to do what you wanted that was it. Did some toady up? Yes, almost certainly. But I think it's wishful thinking g that dozens and dozens were lying.

Mr. kle4, mwahahaha!

You can quote me on that.

' But I think it's wishful thinking g that dozens and dozens were lying. '

Not lying but going along with their leader on an issue they were uncertain about or those that place great emphasis on party loyalty.

The number of outright toadies who would have gone against their strong viewpoint for career advancement would, as you say, have been much smaller.

kle4 said:

If there's one person unaffected by this quote button problem, it's mr dancer alright.

@taffys also