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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Article 50 can’t be invoked, surely, without the country knowi

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited December 2016
    WG Bush Snr was very pro EU, Trump was the most openly supportive of Brexit of any of the main contenders he dislikes the EU as much as he dislikes NAFTA and TPP. Goodnight
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    @pulpstar
    Indeed, it would be useful and I don't understand why BVA did not do it last week (they only did Fillon/ Le Pen and Macron / Le Pen)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    @Chris_from_paris What were the Fillon/Le Pen and Macron/Le Pen figures ?
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    @HYUFD
    Valls or Macron supporters would certainly bring more votes to Fillon but even Mélenchon supporters would mostly support Fillon or not vote. Le Pen transfers from the left remain very low.

    In the last IFOP second round polling for a Fillon Le Pen scenario
    Melenchon voters would split Fillon 31 Le Pen 14 No vote 55
    Valls voters: Fillon 42 Le Pen 12 No vote 46
    Macron voters: Fillon 58 Le Pen 10 No vote 32

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    @pulpstar
    For BVA
    Fillon 67 Le Pen 33
    Macron 62 Le Pen 38

    For IFOP
    Fillon 65 / Le Pen 35
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    The unbelievably stupid Alix Culbertson (I've never heard of her before, but anyway) of the Express seems to think (although I doubt whether she is capable of "thinking" at all, in any meaningful sense which we humans would understand) that the Mayor of Rome is the Mayor of the Vatican City

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/743558/Rome-war-migrants-poor-Italians-Vatican-City-Virginia-Raggi
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    @JohnLoony
    Incredible (the journalist is at fault but what about the editor?). The depressing thing is that a lot of readers probably won't notice the mistake.

    By the way, do you still have the link you often posted on pb.com in the past of an Enver Hoxha speech with "spontaneous" applause and standing ovation every few sentences? I was searching for it the other day.
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwZ37MnYbiw

    By chance I also recently found the (translated) script of the speech. Even with no knowledge of Albanian, it is easy to follow because of the large number of proper names.

    From pages 624, 628 and 629: https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/hoxha/works/ebooks/sw/vol6.pdf

    We tell the Great Serbs, the secret firm friends of the Russians, that there are two ways for the Russo-Bulgarian revisionists to attack Albania in order to reach our part of the Adriatic coast. The one way is through the Vardar and Kosova and the other through the Straits of Otranto. In the first case, without the slightest doubt, the whole Albanian people living in Kosova and other regions of Yugoslavia — in Skopje and Kaçanik , in Tetova and Gostivar, in Llap and Plava-Gucia , will meet the aggressors with guns. (Applause) The whole of Yugoslavia will be ablaze and the Russo-Bulgarian revisionist invaders, if they ever succeed in reaching our Alps, will be in the same shape as the German Nazis after the battle of Stalingrad.

    In the second case, we Albanians hold the key to the Straits of Otranto. Sazan Island and the Karaburun Peninsula — and do not fear that I am revealing any secret, are rocks clad in iron and concrete which the Soviet naval fleet cannot pass. (Applause, "The Party! Enver! We are ready any time!")

    If our Russo-Bulgarian enemies and others want to embark on such adventures they ought to know that the Albanians are not a state of three million, but a nation of six million people. (Applause) Ours was a small people in the time of the Second World War, but although alone and unarmed, they defeated and liquidated a considerable number of Italian fascist and German Nazi divisions. Now the times have changed in favour of socialist Albania, hence: Hands off Albania! (Applause)

    Albania threatens nobody, it wants to live in friendship with the others but, if anyone violates its rights and borders, it will retaliate in kind . Likewise , it will reply in the sternest manner to the injustices or insults anybody might employ against it.
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (Part 2 because the text was too long for one comment)

    Comrades,

    The new elections for deputies to the People's Assembly are being held on the eve of a major event — the celebration of the 70th anniversary of National Independence.

    The Albanian people, all the Albanians, wherever they are, have always celebrated with great jubilation the great day of November 28th, 1912 when that wise old patriot — Ismail Qemali, hoisted the national flag in Vlora and proclaimed the independence of the country.

    In celebrating this glorious anniversary, we recall the legendary battles that the Albanian people have waged for centuries on end for the freedom and independence of the Homeland, their titanic efforts to preserve and develop their language and culture, their ardent love for their land and traditions.

    - - - - -

    The elections to the People's Assembly find work going on at full swing all over the country to put the decisions of the 8th Congress of the Party in practice, to fulfil the important tasks of the 7th Five Year Plan. Let them serve as an inspiration and impulse to further strengthening the steel unity of the people around the Party, to greater mobilization and zest at work, to working with discipline and knowledge, to implementing everywhere the militant slogan of the Party, «Work and Vigilance», to making the people's state power ever stronger, our socialist Albania ever more beautiful, more prosperous and happier.
    Long live our people!
    Long live the Party of Labour of Albania!
    Long live our people's power! (Applause)
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    Rogue One is awesome. That is all.
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    Good to see the Tartan Tories anf Scottish Tories voting against the SNP Policy of a 50p tax rate......
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    @TSE worth seeing in IMAX 3-D?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    @TSE.. you know what is also awesome? Having a quote button... :D

    I'll get my coat.
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    @JohnLoony
    Awesome, thank you very much.
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    @TSE worth seeing in IMAX 3-D?

    Oh yes. I watched it in 3D IMAX.

    4DX later on today.
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    RobD said:

    @TSE.. you know what is also awesome? Having a quote button... :D

    I'll get my coat.

    It works via the vanilla forums.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Donald Trump is facing growing pressure to respond to the alleged hack of the election by the Russians as new reports say Vladimir Putin was "directly tied" to the cyber attack.

    NBC news reported that the Russian president was personally involved in the attempt to disrupt the election, according to two anonymous intelligence officials.

    The motives for the alleged cyber attack were multifaceted. Mr Putin had a "vendetta" against Hillary Clinton, and this morphed into a desire to highlight corruption in American politics and split off key US allies, according to Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-russian-cyber-attack-rex-tillerson-vladimir-putin-hacking-election-vendetta-hillary-a7476096.html
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited December 2016
    AndyJS said:

    "Donald Trump is facing growing pressure to respond to the alleged hack of the election by the Russians as new reports say Vladimir Putin was "directly tied" to the cyber attack.

    NBC news reported that the Russian president was personally involved in the attempt to disrupt the election, according to two anonymous intelligence officials.

    The motives for the alleged cyber attack were multifaceted. Mr Putin had a "vendetta" against Hillary Clinton, and this morphed into a desire to highlight corruption in American politics and split off key US allies, according to Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-russian-cyber-attack-rex-tillerson-vladimir-putin-hacking-election-vendetta-hillary-a7476096.html

    What are they expecting Trump to say, that he's sorry his political opponent was as shit at using email for their campaign, as their candidate was when she held office?

    If the Democrats are trying to infer that Trump might have had something to do with the Russian hacking, the best thing he can say on the subject is nothing at all.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited December 2016
    Morning all.

    BBC (top story) Brexit trade deal could take 10 years, says UK's EU ambassador.

    There’s that word ‘could’ again...!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    RobD said:

    @TSE.. you know what is also awesome? Having a quote button... :D

    I'll get my coat.

    It works via the vanilla forums.
    Is it ever going to return to the other forum and if it does can we have a like button as well :)
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Morning all.

    BBC (top story) Brexit trade deal could take 10 years, says UK's EU ambassador.

    There’s that word ‘could’ again...!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146

    Sadly the BBC is full on with negativity regarding BRexit again - despite the relative benignity of much of the current data. Laura Kuenesberg and Faisal Islam from SKY are like 2 peas from the same pod. Fake news seems pretty endemic in the mainstream now.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited December 2016
    Paging Roger

    Will make trying to bet on a winner interesting

    "BAFTA is bringing in diversity rules which films will have to comply with to be eligible for two of its top annual awards. From 2019 it will be a requirement that films put forward for the Outstanding British Film and Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer categories must meet the new criteria. The academy said the 'significant change' demonstrated its intention to take a leading role in 'increasing the representation of under-represented groups in front of and behind the camera"

    "A Bafta spokesman said: 'Under-represented groups in the film industry include people from minority ethnic backgrounds, disabled people, women and LGBT [lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender]. It also includes people from lower socio-economic groups."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4035358/The-oh-trendy-diversity-rules-mean-Bond-never-win-Baftas-today-Organisation-introduces-new-guidelines-means-movies-meet-criteria-qualify-awards.html#ixzz4St1KfrpW
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    felix said:

    Morning all.

    BBC (top story) Brexit trade deal could take 10 years, says UK's EU ambassador.

    There’s that word ‘could’ again...!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146

    Sadly the BBC is full on with negativity regarding BRexit again - despite the relative benignity of much of the current data. Laura Kuenesberg and Faisal Islam from SKY are like 2 peas from the same pod. Fake news seems pretty endemic in the mainstream now.
    They were on good form last night, describing the rise in average earnings as "small". And by small what they actually meant was 2.5% which is more than double the rate of inflation which they described as "the highest since October 2014."
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    felix said:

    Morning all.

    BBC (top story) Brexit trade deal could take 10 years, says UK's EU ambassador.

    There’s that word ‘could’ again...!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146

    Sadly the BBC is full on with negativity regarding BRexit again - despite the relative benignity of much of the current data. Laura Kuenesberg and Faisal Islam from SKY are like 2 peas from the same pod. Fake news seems pretty endemic in the mainstream now.
    What part of 'we haven't left yet' don't you understand?
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    edited December 2016
    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    felix said:

    Morning all.

    BBC (top story) Brexit trade deal could take 10 years, says UK's EU ambassador.

    There’s that word ‘could’ again...!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38324146

    Sadly the BBC is full on with negativity regarding BRexit again - despite the relative benignity of much of the current data. Laura Kuenesberg and Faisal Islam from SKY are like 2 peas from the same pod. Fake news seems pretty endemic in the mainstream now.
    Ffs Felix, we haven't left yet, nothing has changed. It's a phoney war, but God knows the clouds are gathering.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    And this proposed EU rule change would be consistent with the Single Market how?

    Its complete nonsense anyway. London manages to buy and sell more US dollars than New York every day despite supposedly not being able to clear US dollars outside the US.

    This lack of a quote button is annoying.
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    test
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
    Or look up admiring the view?

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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203

    RobD said:

    @TSE.. you know what is also awesome? Having a quote button... :D

    I'll get my coat.

    It works via the vanilla forums.
    I only use the vanilla forums view these days. I hate reading threads from last to first.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Bromptonaut
    "What part of 'we haven't left yet' don't you understand?"

    "We haven't left yet" has now become the Remainers fall back point having lost all the other arguments as well as the referendum.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548


    The last shall be first and the first shall be last!
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    The problem with fake news on the EU departure and the word "could do this" or " could do that" is when something big does come along .........no one will believe them.

    There's a fairy tale story about that somewhere I believe
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
    Or look up admiring the view?

    Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited December 2016
    i can see the headlines now.....

    Britains decision to leave the EU could mean low scores are received in Eurovision.

    positive news then as at least we would do better than we normally do.

    "We haven't left yet though" :wink:
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
    Or look up admiring the view?

    ....at those who have constantly looked down on us for 40 odd years.

    No change then.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    Moses_ said:

    The problem with fake news on the EU departure and the word "could do this" or " could do that" is when something big does come along .........no one will believe them.

    There's a fairy tale story about that somewhere I believe

    How does it differ from Boris telling us we could have our cake and eat it. I'm afraid much of what we're hearing from Government is just pollyanna, pollyanna. But you're content with that as it reinforces your own delusions.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
    Or look up admiring the view?

    Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?
    Very much so!.

    Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

    I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

    The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.
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    I see that a consensus is now emerging that Brexit will take years to sort out. Well who would have thunk it?

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/02/the-idea-that-post-brexit-trade-negotiations-would-be-wrapped-up-quickly-is-divorced-from-reality/
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,465
    Moses_ said:

    i can see the headlines now.....

    Britains decision to leave the EU could mean low scores are received in Eurovision.

    positive news then as at least we would do better than we normally do.

    "We haven't left yet though" :wink:

    Mass exodus of celebrities in the wake of Brexit could lead to the end of Strictly Come Dancing, experts have said.
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    Loved yesterday's reported reply by the queen to Martin McGuinnes on how she was "Can't complain. I'm not dead."

    Harmless chit chat from an old dear, or McGuinnes has just been brutally sandbagged.....?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    DavidL said:

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
    Or look up admiring the view?

    Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?
    Very much so!.

    Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

    I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

    The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.
    On the latter point I completely agree. The day after the decision of the Supreme Court comes out would be a good day if the government wins. The day after the Bill is raced through Parliament if they don't. This uncertainty and refusal in many parts to accept it is ever going to happen does not help anyone.

    On the former point attempts by the French to limit Euro trading to the EZ have so far been unsuccessful. A repeat of those attempts without the UK there to stop them is indeed possible even if it is unlikely to be effective. The remaining non Euro countries would need to have a serious think about the implications of that.
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    DavidL said:

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
    Or look up admiring the view?

    Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?
    Very much so!.

    Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

    I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

    The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.
    Yes, let's not delay taking this irrevocable (?) step that is likely to make things worse.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,465
    Sausages may be officially shorter in the wake of Brexit, according to Mark Carney's team at the BOE.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    DavidL said:

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
    Or look up admiring the view?

    Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?
    Very much so!.

    Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

    I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

    The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.
    Yes, let's not delay taking this irrevocable (?) step that is likely to make things worse.
    It may well make things worse, but it is a stupid decision democratically arrived at, so should be implemented ASAP.

    Democracy delayed is Democracy denied.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    Not as good as Vanilla are doing to PB though.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    Mostly by doing bugger all. Its almost as if May, Hammond and Johnson don't want to leave at all...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    Or Brexit is a fuckup, and the Government are doing a good job of implementing it...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The best way to have avoided a referendum was just not to have called one. As Shipman relates, George Osborne certainly thought so. To answer the referendum question properly you need to go far back. Oliver quotes Nicholas Soames, who puts the main point in his usually colourful way: “If you have an Alsatian sitting in front of you and it growls at you and bares its teeth, there are two ways of dealing with it. You can pat it on the head, in which case it’ll bite you, or you can kick it really hard in the balls, in which case it’ll run away.” David Cameron should have chosen the moment of his maximum strength, soon after becoming Tory leader, to kick the Alsatian in the balls. He didn’t.

    Cameron then misread the politics, yielding to the demands for a referendum because he exaggerated the threat of losing office in 2015. It’s not really true, as Oliver suggests, that the country would have become ungovernable if the Tories had not promised a referendum in their 2015 manifesto. The correct reading of the last parliament is that it was a search to find a way not to make Ed Miliband prime minister. Cameron should have chillaxed. The threat to the Tories from Ukip was never existential. Plenty of his MPs were wittering in that vein but they were all wrong and should have been faced down.


    http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/brexit-european-union-book-review-tim-shipman-daniel-hannan
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    Where were you for the great quoting crisis of December 2016?
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.
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    Where were you for the great quoting crisis of December 2016?

    Here.....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Where were you for the great quoting crisis of December 2016?

    Remoaners still have access to the secret quote facility...

    It's a conspiracy!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    There's a story in Times today that Brexit made Lego more expensive...
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    DavidL said:

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
    Or look up admiring the view?

    Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?
    Very much so!.

    Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

    I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

    The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.
    Yes, let's not delay taking this irrevocable (?) step that is likely to make things worse.
    It may well make things worse, but it is a stupid decision democratically arrived at, so should be implemented ASAP.

    Democracy delayed is Democracy denied.
    I understand appeasement was supported democratically during the 1930's. By your logic Churchill was wrong to oppose it.
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    Good morning, everyone.
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    Scott_P said:

    Where were you for the great quoting crisis of December 2016?

    Remoaners still have access to the secret quote facility...

    It's a conspiracy!
    I remember during SINDYREF one of the Nats was convinced only Unionists could edit posts! Which is ironic considering how the SNP specialises in time travel.....
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    PlatoSaid said:

    There's a story in Times today that Brexit made Lego more expensive...

    Very clever.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,314
    edited December 2016
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
    Or look up admiring the view?

    Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?
    Very much so!.

    Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

    I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

    The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.
    On the latter point I completely agree. The day after the decision of the Supreme Court comes out would be a good day if the government wins. The day after the Bill is raced through Parliament if they don't. This uncertainty and refusal in many parts to accept it is ever going to happen does not help anyone.

    On the former point attempts by the French to limit Euro trading to the EZ have so far been unsuccessful. A repeat of those attempts without the UK there to stop them is indeed possible even if it is unlikely to be effective. The remaining non Euro countries would need to have a serious think about the implications of that.
    People mix up clearing and settlement (payments).

    Payments the ECB has complete control over. Clearing there is a fight to be had but we only kept it last time because we were in the single market.
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    Jonathan said:
    No, that's teetotallers.....
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931

    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.
    Remainers should absolutely hate Cameron for his incompetence and poor judgement.

    He didn't have to hold a referendum, but he had all the tools at his disposal to win it, he called one anyway and lost it.

    Even then he was the right person to handle our departure, and could have negotiated a softish brexit before retiring at the next GE.

    Instead he had a crap in a paper bag, put it on the doorstep of No 10, set the bag alight and ran away shouting 'fire' as Theresa May moseyed up in her kitten heels.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    edited December 2016
    F1: Mercedes apparently having a board meeting tomorrow to decide how to proceed with their empty seat.

    Edited extra bit: having some odd computer issues. Humbug.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.
    Remainers should absolutely hate Cameron for his incompetence and poor judgement.

    He didn't have to hold a referendum, but he had all the tools at his disposal to win it, he called one anyway and lost it.

    Even then he was the right person to handle our departure, and could have negotiated a softish brexit before retiring at the next GE.

    Instead he had a crap in a paper bag, put it on the doorstep of No 10, set the bag alight and ran away shouting 'fire' as Theresa May moseyed up in her kitten heels.
    The bag is still burning, giving off an almighty stink and beginning to catch the surroundings.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Is Corbyn playing to Labour's strengths or not?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38318415

    Just wondering how his choice of topics at PMQs compares with polling leads for each party.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Given the Euro is the currency of the EU it is astonishing they never led the way in transactions of it in the first place
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    O/T

    The new president of the Phillipines is certainly carrying out his pre-election promises!
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    Spot the difference:

    ' The threat of a potential vote to leave the EU in June could be partly to blame for the first rise in unemployment in seven months, the work and pensions secretary has warned.

    Stephen Crabb said the latest labour report, which showed the unemployment total rose by 21,000 in the three months to February to 1.7 million, was a signal that the looming EU referendum vote was hitting the jobs market. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/20/uk-unemployment-rises-and-pay-growth-falls

    ' UK unemployment fell slightly to 1.62 million in the three months to October, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    It meant the unemployment rate held steady at 4.8% in the period, remaining at an 11-year low. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38313110

    Have we had any comment from Stephen Crabb on the most recent unemployment figures ? It may not be his job anymore but I believe he has plenty of time on his hands these days.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Blue_rog said:

    O/T

    The new president of the Phillipines is certainly carrying out his pre-election promises!

    A heavy drug using friend of mine moved there in June... and is now an ex drug user!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited December 2016
    Sandpit Former Ambassador Craig Murray has now said most of the leaks from the DNC came from disgruntled Sanders' supporters
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    AM Brexit will be done by 2019 the EU may hold up a trade deal a while longer but that is up to them
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit Former Ambassador Craig Murray has now said most of the leaks from the DNC came from disgruntled Sanders' supporters

    Whether it was the murdered DNC staffer, Romanian phishing or pissed off Bernie fans - it's all much more likely than some Putin plot to campaign in a cack-handed way by Team Hillary.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    DavidL said:

    Those quisling journos at the FT are at it too.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/809283003457355780

    And yet the lemmings remain delusional as they maintain their headlong rush to the bottom of the cliff..
    Where they'll bump their heads on the bottom of the cliff? :-)
    Or look up admiring the view?

    Is that like trying to read a thread on vanilla forums so you can have a quote button?
    Very much so!.

    Presumably the mooted change in clearing could only take place after Brexit from the Single Market.

    I was chatting to a friend in the City earlier in the week. It sounds like several banks have stopped hiring in London and are recruiting in the EU27 instead, mostly in Frankfurt.

    The sooner A50 is invoked, the better as I see it. No one wants a decade of uncertainty.
    Yes, let's not delay taking this irrevocable (?) step that is likely to make things worse.
    Democracy delayed is Democracy denied.
    Not when there wasn't a timescale it isn't.

    The Supreme Court will aim to announce its view in January I believe. May has said, prior to the case 'delaying' things, that triggering might not happen until the end of march. She certainly is committed to Brexit happening, so it would seem her delay is not denying democracy is it? And the other delays were either expected and accounted for or not really delaying from when the prime minister planned at all, given her choice was march.

    Sadly, pithy phrases often turn out not to fit actual circumstances.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    Scott_P said:

    The best way to have avoided a referendum was just not to have called one. As Shipman relates, George Osborne certainly thought so. To answer the referendum question properly you need to go far back. Oliver quotes Nicholas Soames, who puts the main point in his usually colourful way: “If you have an Alsatian sitting in front of you and it growls at you and bares its teeth, there are two ways of dealing with it. You can pat it on the head, in which case it’ll bite you, or you can kick it really hard in the balls, in which case it’ll run away.” David Cameron should have chosen the moment of his maximum strength, soon after becoming Tory leader, to kick the Alsatian in the balls. He didn’t.

    Cameron then misread the politics, yielding to the demands for a referendum because he exaggerated the threat of losing office in 2015. It’s not really true, as Oliver suggests, that the country would have become ungovernable if the Tories had not promised a referendum in their 2015 manifesto. The correct reading of the last parliament is that it was a search to find a way not to make Ed Miliband prime minister. Cameron should have chillaxed. The threat to the Tories from Ukip was never existential. Plenty of his MPs were wittering in that vein but they were all wrong and should have been faced down.


    http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/brexit-european-union-book-review-tim-shipman-daniel-hannan

    Cameron certainly could have purged the eurosceptics when he became leader, but they'd have ended up voting and campaigning for UKIP.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    Scott_P said:

    Where were you for the great quoting crisis of December 2016?

    Remoaners still have access to the secret quote facility...

    It's a conspiracy!
    I remember during SINDYREF one of the Nats was convinced only Unionists could edit posts! Which is ironic considering how the SNP specialises in time travel.....
    Oh yes, had gone past the six minute rule. Good times.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,708
    edited December 2016
    You know a man by his friends
    Another Labour insider described Ms Fisher's appointment as "a self-inflicted punishment beating".
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/81752/jeremy-corbyn-defends-giving-key
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.
    Remainers should absolutely hate Cameron for his incompetence and poor judgement.

    He didn't have to hold a referendum, but he had all the tools at his disposal to win it, he called one anyway and lost it.

    Even then he was the right person to handle our departure, and could have negotiated a softish brexit before retiring at the next GE.

    Instead he had a crap in a paper bag, put it on the doorstep of No 10, set the bag alight and ran away shouting 'fire' as Theresa May moseyed up in her kitten heels.
    He'd have been kicked out by his party. Some wanted him out even if he won. But definitely if he lost they all knew he'd not last if he tried to stay. Yesh, they pretended otherwise, but that was one of those political white lies.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    isam said:

    Blue_rog said:

    O/T

    The new president of the Phillipines is certainly carrying out his pre-election promises!

    A heavy drug using friend of mine moved there in June... and is now an ex drug user!
    He knows how to motivate!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    If there's one person unaffected by this quote button problem, it's mr dancer alright.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited December 2016
    SF SP Had Cameron not promised the referendum more people would have voted UKIP than Tory and he would not have won a majority but the Coalition would have continued and he would now still be PM. The irony!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Plato Agreed
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.
    Remainers should absolutely hate Cameron for his incompetence and poor judgement.

    He didn't have to hold a referendum, but he had all the tools at his disposal to win it, he called one anyway and lost it.

    Even then he was the right person to handle our departure, and could have negotiated a softish brexit before retiring at the next GE.

    Instead he had a crap in a paper bag, put it on the doorstep of No 10, set the bag alight and ran away shouting 'fire' as Theresa May moseyed up in her kitten heels.
    He'd have been kicked out by his party. Some wanted him out even if he won. But definitely if he lost they all knew he'd not last if he tried to stay. Yesh, they pretended otherwise, but that was one of those political white lies.
    He'd already said he was going at the next GE, he should have stayed and negotiated a soft brexit that would have placated the people now known as 'remoaners'. It would have been better for the country and, as a PM who campaigned heavily for Remain, I think he had a mandate for a soft brexit. Hard leavers who didn't like him would be placated by the fact he kept his word and took us out.
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    ' Cameron certainly could have purged the eurosceptics when he became leader, but they'd have ended up voting and campaigning for UKIP. '

    Cameron postured as the EUsceptic candidate in the Conservative leadership contest.

    The inconvenient fact for the likes of Clarke, Soames, Soubry and Osborne is that the Conservatives are a fundamentally EUsceptic party.

    Imagine how many Conservative MPs would have supported Remain if Cameron had chosen Leave (as he should have done after being humiliated by Merkel).

    Would it have been 5% ? 10% ? 15% ? Certainly it would have been below 20%.
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    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    Not as good as Vanilla are doing to PB though.

    Can I quote you on that?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.
    Remainers should absolutely hate Cameron for his incompetence and poor judgement.

    He didn't have to hold a referendum, but he had all the tools at his disposal to win it, he called one anyway and lost it.

    Even then he was the right person to handle our departure, and could have negotiated a softish brexit before retiring at the next GE.

    Instead he had a crap in a paper bag, put it on the doorstep of No 10, set the bag alight and ran away shouting 'fire' as Theresa May moseyed up in her kitten heels.
    He'd have been kicked out by his party. Some wanted him out even if he won. But definitely if he lost they all knew he'd not last if he tried to stay. Yesh, they pretended otherwise, but that was one of those political white lies.
    He'd already said he was going at the next GE, he should have stayed and negotiated a soft brexit that would have placated the people now known as 'remoaners'. It would have been better for the country and, as a PM who campaigned heavily for Remain, I think he had a mandate for a soft brexit. Hard leavers who didn't like him would be placated by the fact he kept his word and took us out.
    I'd have preferred he stayed on too, but we'll have to agree to disagree on whether, had he wanted to, he'd have been let to. Personally I think it's a shame former pms dont generally stick around. It'd have been a distraction first up, but it'd have been interesting to see him in the cabinet.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,726

    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    Mostly by doing bugger all. Its almost as if May, Hammond and Johnson don't want to leave at all...
    Brexit means Brexit. Leaving is easy. It's the And it Will be a Success part that's difficult. It will be a hard Brexit. It always was going to be hard. It doesn't fit with the sunlit uplands rhetoric from the Leave campaign if we are out on our ear without a significant deal with the EU and nothing in place with anyone else either and we have to spend the next couple of decades scrabbling around trying to sort something out.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    ' Cameron certainly could have purged the eurosceptics when he became leader, but they'd have ended up voting and campaigning for UKIP. '

    Cameron postured as the EUsceptic candidate in the Conservative leadership contest.

    The inconvenient fact for the likes of Clarke, Soames, Soubry and Osborne is that the Conservatives are a fundamentally EUsceptic party.

    Imagine how many Conservative MPs would have supported Remain if Cameron had chosen Leave (as he should have done after being humiliated by Merkel).

    Would it have been 5% ? 10% ? 15% ? Certainly it would have been below 20%.

    Difficult to say. I have to say I think people are a little harsh on Tory MPs and act like most of them did not really support the position they said they did. Almost half went against their leader, if ever there was safety in numbers to do what you wanted that was it. Did some toady up? Yes, almost certainly. But I think it's wishful thinking g that dozens and dozens were lying.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I've no view here, but this runs against most MSM

    Hamoush
    Canadian journo totally crushes MSM reporter on what’s actually going on in #Syria #Aleppo part 2! https://t.co/at9wvgT1sA
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    Mr. kle4, mwahahaha!

    You can quote me on that.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    The government are really doing a good job of fucking up Brexit.

    The fuck up was entirely Cameron's. As barrister's say, you should never ask a question you don't know the answer to.
    Remainers should absolutely hate Cameron for his incompetence and poor judgement.

    He didn't have to hold a referendum, but he had all the tools at his disposal to win it, he called one anyway and lost it.

    Even then he was the right person to handle our departure, and could have negotiated a softish brexit before retiring at the next GE.

    Instead he had a crap in a paper bag, put it on the doorstep of No 10, set the bag alight and ran away shouting 'fire' as Theresa May moseyed up in her kitten heels.
    He'd have been kicked out by his party. Some wanted him out even if he won. But definitely if he lost they all knew he'd not last if he tried to stay. Yesh, they pretended otherwise, but that was one of those political white lies.
    He'd already said he was going at the next GE, he should have stayed and negotiated a soft brexit that would have placated the people now known as 'remoaners'. It would have been better for the country and, as a PM who campaigned heavily for Remain, I think he had a mandate for a soft brexit. Hard leavers who didn't like him would be placated by the fact he kept his word and took us out.
    I'd have preferred he stayed on too, but we'll have to agree to disagree on whether, had he wanted to, he'd have been let to. Personally I think it's a shame former pms dont generally stick around. It'd have been a distraction first up, but it'd have been interesting to see him in the cabinet.
    All he'd have needed to get was slightly more than the deal he presented before the referendum. Almost half the country voted for that, and many that rejected it would have settled for slightly more.

    To be fair that's all May has to get as well, but I think it's a harder sell for her.
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    ' But I think it's wishful thinking g that dozens and dozens were lying. '

    Not lying but going along with their leader on an issue they were uncertain about or those that place great emphasis on party loyalty.

    The number of outright toadies who would have gone against their strong viewpoint for career advancement would, as you say, have been much smaller.

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    Morning all,

    I can no longer use 'reply' - is this just me? Or have we got vanilla problems?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,314
    kle4 said:

    If there's one person unaffected by this quote button problem, it's mr dancer alright.

    @taffys also
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    @rottenborough

    Can't see a reply option either. Just 'Flag' and 'Off Topic'.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 7,693
    9:57AM
    Morning all,
    I can no longer use 'reply' - is this just me? Or have we got vanilla problems?


    Yes. Rather like the inside of Alistair Meeks' head it used to work properly but it has recently become unstable. There's no timescale on a reliable service being resumed.
This discussion has been closed.