politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Westminster and Local By-Election Preview : December 8th 2016
Comments
-
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/807028241185771521
"You don't get that on the BBC"0 -
I'd forgotten about Brent South. I remember IDS was teetering when the Lib Dems were on the brink of overtaking the Tories in the national opinion polls, though I don't recall if this ever actually happened.HYUFD said:
Yes but for the official opposition to come 4th or worse in any by-election would be very bad (especially outside Scotland and Wales with no SNP or Plaid), the Tories got rid of IDS when they came third in Brent Southslade said:
Lincolnshire county council is very peculiar. As well as the majority Conservatives there are UKIP, Lincolnshire Independents, and Anti-Europe councillors. There have been some strange changes in representation over recent years.HYUFD said:
Yes, if the County results follow the Sleaford result UKIP and the LDs will squeeze Labourjustin124 said:The PLP moved too early. Needed to wait for results like this.Perhaps next year’s County Council results will provide the basis for another challenge.
0 -
Nah, Corbyn has a cult following like Trump he can do no wrong. These results just prove MSM bias.justin124 said:
A lot of them would! The evidence was not there last Summer with Corbynites being able to claim that he had exceeded expectations in respect of the electoral tests set for him. That has now changed!brokenwheel said:
I don't think the membership gives a sh*t.justin124 said:
Because of results such as this which provide clear evidence of Corbyn's electoral toxicity!AndyJS said:
Why would the membership vote any differently than before?justin124 said:The PLP moved too early. Needed to wait for results like this.Perhaps next year’s County Council results will provide the basis for another challenge.
0 -
A very irresponsible front page from the Guardian tomorrow.0
-
The Times has a picture of David Cameron looking happy with George and Laura Bush at a basketball game in Texas yesterday.0
-
Has a major party ever lost two deposits in the space of eight days before?0
-
One of the few TOTP they can show?AndyJS said:O/T
It's 21st October 1982 on BBC4 with vintage Top of the Pops if anyone's interested. (That was the same month CDs first became commercially available IIRC).0 -
The LDs never actually overtook the Tories in the polls (Clegg actually managed it briefly in 2010 after the first debate but he overtook Labour then too) however while the Tories were flatlining the LDs under Kennedy were making more progress against Blair's LabourStark_Dawning said:
I'd forgotten about Brent South. I remember IDS was teetering when the Lib Dems were on the brink of overtaking the Tories in the national opinion polls, though I don't recall if this ever actually happened.HYUFD said:
Yes but for the official opposition to come 4th or worse in any by-election would be very bad (especially outside Scotland and Wales with no SNP or Plaid), the Tories got rid of IDS when they came third in Brent Southslade said:
Lincolnshire county council is very peculiar. As well as the majority Conservatives there are UKIP, Lincolnshire Independents, and Anti-Europe councillors. There have been some strange changes in representation over recent years.HYUFD said:
Yes, if the County results follow the Sleaford result UKIP and the LDs will squeeze Labourjustin124 said:The PLP moved too early. Needed to wait for results like this.Perhaps next year’s County Council results will provide the basis for another challenge.
0 -
What's he got to be happy about? He should be scavenging around bins! Where's the justice in this world?MikeL said:The Times has a picture of David Cameron looking happy with George and Laura Bush at a basketball game in Texas yesterday.
0 -
The LDs also lost deposit after deposit in coalition and never got anywhere near to a leadership challenge. Still, Labour can console themselves that the LDs did ok at the next general election...not.AndyJS said:
Ought to be curtains for Corbyn but won't be with the membership as it is.williamglenn said:ITV correspondent speculating that Labour may be 5th.
The week I was born! Pass the Dutchie on the left hand side was #1 I think. Might be wrong, I don't remember it all that well.AndyJS said:O/T
It's 21st October 1982 on BBC4 with vintage Top of the Pops if anyone's interested. (That was the same month CDs first became commercially available IIRC).0 -
Neither the Lib Dems nor UKIP can form a government. Barring total realignment non Tory governments have to be led by Labour. If Labour has done as badly as we are being briefed it's yet more evidence we're in David Milluband's " One governing party state ". Another nudge toward #Mayday.0
-
They got knocked off number one this week by Boy George and Culture Club with Do You Really Want To Hurt Me.tpfkar said:
The LDs also lost deposit after deposit in coalition and never got anywhere near to a leadership challenge. Still, Labour can console themselves that the LDs did ok at the next general election...not.AndyJS said:
Ought to be curtains for Corbyn but won't be with the membership as it is.williamglenn said:ITV correspondent speculating that Labour may be 5th.
The week I was born! Pass the Dutchie on the left hand side was #1 I think. Might be wrong, I don't remember it all that well.AndyJS said:O/T
It's 21st October 1982 on BBC4 with vintage Top of the Pops if anyone's interested. (That was the same month CDs first became commercially available IIRC).0 -
I think that's what we're seeing, in addition to the Tory vote being soft. The constituency battleground map will look very different in the next election.YellowSubmarine said:Neither the Lib Dems nor UKIP can form a government. Barring total realignment non Tory governments have to be led by Labour. If Labour has done as badly as we are being briefed it's yet more evidence we're in David Milluband's " One governing party state ". Another nudge toward #Mayday.
0 -
They're able to show about 80% of them.FrancisUrquhart said:
One of the few TOTP they can show?AndyJS said:O/T
It's 21st October 1982 on BBC4 with vintage Top of the Pops if anyone's interested. (That was the same month CDs first became commercially available IIRC).0 -
-
Now a report on ITV of Labour and LibDem battling for third place.0
-
Looks like UKIP are probably going to get second place.0
-
LibDems fourth would just show what a freaky result Richmond was...justin124 said:Now a report on ITV of Labour and LibDem battling for third place.
0 -
UKIP's Victoria Ayling predicts second place and 'hoping to get 20%' of vote. Labour +Lib Dems neck and neck for 3rd #sleafordbyelection0
-
It shows that Sleaford and Richmond Park are two very different constituencies.MarqueeMark said:
LibDems fourth would just show what a freaky result Richmond was...justin124 said:Now a report on ITV of Labour and LibDem battling for third place.
0 -
Doc Nuttall has arrived at the count.0
-
Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?0
-
Labour source (minus the swearing) 'we're 5th' #sleafordandnorthhykeham
Reports seem a bit confused!0 -
Labour comfortable they have held off Bus Pass Elvis for fifth.justin124 said:Labour source (minus the swearing) 'we're 5th' #sleafordandnorthhykeham
Reports seem a bit confused!0 -
"Church of the Militant Elvis Party"MarqueeMark said:
Labour comfortable they have held off Bus Pass Elvis for fifth.justin124 said:Labour source (minus the swearing) 'we're 5th' #sleafordandnorthhykeham
Reports seem a bit confused!
LOL.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-uokKdI7KcRobD said:
"Church of the Militant Elvis Party"MarqueeMark said:
Labour comfortable they have held off Bus Pass Elvis for fifth.justin124 said:Labour source (minus the swearing) 'we're 5th' #sleafordandnorthhykeham
Reports seem a bit confused!
LOL.0 -
Some reports of a declaration in 20 mins.0
-
Result now expected 20 minutes or so.0
-
Sounds like the " reports " are all over the place.0
-
Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villagesAndyJS said:
The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.BigRich said:Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?
0 -
I thought all copies of that were burnt?williamglenn said:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-uokKdI7KcRobD said:
"Church of the Militant Elvis Party"MarqueeMark said:
Labour comfortable they have held off Bus Pass Elvis for fifth.justin124 said:Labour source (minus the swearing) 'we're 5th' #sleafordandnorthhykeham
Reports seem a bit confused!
LOL.
0 -
From Daniel Hewitt
'I'm told it's close between Labour and Lib Dems for 3rd. 100-200 votes. Labour fears of losing their deposit appear to have not materialised'0 -
A lot of confusion — some people saying Labour are 5th, others that they might get 3rd over LDs.0
-
Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.HYUFD said:
Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villagesAndyJS said:
The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.BigRich said:Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?
0 -
Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual resultRobD said:
Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.HYUFD said:
Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villagesAndyJS said:
The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.BigRich said:Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?
0 -
Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual resultRobD said:
Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.HYUFD said:
Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villagesAndyJS said:
The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.BigRich said:Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?
0 -
Their election is the race for firstAndyJS said:
Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual resultRobD said:
Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.HYUFD said:
Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villagesAndyJS said:
The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.BigRich said:Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?
0 -
If UKIP move from third to second that will be a boost for them and for Nuttall but looks like a clear Tory holdwilliamglenn said:0 -
Actually they haven't had any competitors for a long time. In the last few elections they've declared about an hour before anyone else, so it hasn't been close.HYUFD said:
Their election is the race for firstAndyJS said:
Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual resultRobD said:
Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.HYUFD said:
Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villagesAndyJS said:
The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.BigRich said:Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?
0 -
Maybe they should earn some money telling California how it is done.AndyJS said:
Actually they haven't had any competitors for a long time. In the last few elections they've declared about an hour before anyone else, so it hasn't been close.HYUFD said:
Their election is the race for firstAndyJS said:
Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual resultRobD said:
Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.HYUFD said:
Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villagesAndyJS said:
The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.BigRich said:Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?
0 -
Yes because they put the most effort into itAndyJS said:
Actually they haven't had any competitors for a long time. In the last few elections they've declared about an hour before anyone else, so it hasn't been close.HYUFD said:
Their election is the race for firstAndyJS said:
Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual resultRobD said:
Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.HYUFD said:
Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villagesAndyJS said:
The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.BigRich said:Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?
0 -
California don't make any effort to finish quickly. Their view is that once everyone knows who's going to win the state, there's no point in rushing to finish the count. The same with most of the other states. I don't agree with that way of doing things myself.RobD said:
Maybe they should earn some money telling California how it is done.AndyJS said:
Actually they haven't had any competitors for a long time. In the last few elections they've declared about an hour before anyone else, so it hasn't been close.HYUFD said:
Their election is the race for firstAndyJS said:
Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual resultRobD said:
Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.HYUFD said:
Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villagesAndyJS said:
The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.BigRich said:Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?
0 -
Northern England's Brexit voters need to be heard, says thinktank
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/09/northern-englands-brexit-voters-need-to-be-heard-says-thinktank?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard0 -
Sunderland's democratically elected council chooses to spend far more than it needs to achieve it's quirky status and coverage as first to declare. It's upto it's voters whether it's value for money vis a vis street cleaning or child protection.0
-
Newcastle beat Sunderland on referendum nightYellowSubmarine said:Sunderland's democratically elected council chooses to spend far more than it needs to achieve it's quirky status and coverage as first to declare. It's upto it's voters whether it's value for money vis a vis street cleaning or child protection.
0 -
They were heard. If they hadn't been, the overall result would have been Remain.YellowSubmarine said:Northern England's Brexit voters need to be heard, says thinktank
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/09/northern-englands-brexit-voters-need-to-be-heard-says-thinktank?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard0 -
BBC Radio Lincolnshire have a "By-Election Special" although they're playing music at the moment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/bbc_radio_lincolnshire0 -
LDs now reported to have narrowly taken 3rd, so Labour have fallen from 2nd to 4th0
-
Sky thinks the results are minutes away.0
-
UKIP "a bit less" than 20%. They were on 15.7% in 2015.0
-
@AndyJS Yes, they were not only heard but they changed the course of European history. It's a bizzare thing to ask that they be heard. Digging into the article it's the usual bedwetting. Policy wonks know they've voted to cut off their nose, have realised they'll be no bregret and know how nasty it's going to get when the Vultures come home to roost. So how do you frame a conversation with angry people who aren't going away, who''ve acted like idiots but who you can't call idiots ?
I don't envy those doomed to work on behalf of these communities ( including my own here in Leaverstan )
Also worth noting Burnham repositioning just as he did in the Commons the other day.0 -
Sky News:
UKIP second but not much improvement on 2015 share. Below 20%.0 -
Declaration time0
-
Declaration!0
-
With crappy audio....0
-
Bus-pass Elvis party, 55!0
-
Con 17,517
UKIP 4,486
LD 3,606
Lab 3,363
Lincs Ind 2,892
Payne 462
Loony 200
0 -
Con only down 3%. Not too shabby. A crushing defeat for Remain
0 -
UKIP never got off the ground. Labour will get stick for finishing 4th.0
-
Labour fourth!!0
-
Looks like Tories got about 52%.0
-
Big win for May which she needed after Richmond Park, UKIP little changed but moved up to second, LDs will be pleased with further progress and bad night for Labour falling from second to fourth. GoodnightAndyJS said:Con 17,517
UKIP 4,486
LD 3,606
Lab 3,363
Lincs Ind 2,892
Payne 462
Loony 2000 -
Labour only 471 votes from fifth place.0
-
I think it is a steady as she goes win. A big win would have been Tories 60%+, I think.HYUFD said:
Big win for May which she needed after Richmond Park, UKIP little changed but moved up to second, LDs will be pleased with further progress and bad night for Labour falling from second to fourth. GoodnightAndyJS said:Con 17,517
UKIP 4,486
LD 3,606
Lab 3,363
Lincs Ind 2,892
Payne 462
Loony 2000 -
Good for May and encouraging for the LDs, mediocre for UKIP and disastrous for Labour.0
-
Looks like a swing from Lab to Con.
Con down about 3%
Lab down about 7%0 -
UKIP candidate talking for far too long.0
-
Very impressive for the Tories to maintain that vote share despite the huge drop in turnout. For perspective;
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/8068341896098775040 -
May and the Tories can take comfort from the result, but as UKIP failed to get voters interested (despitte the incumbent leaving due to Tory wavering) I would say that a long trailing 2nd is poor show indeed. The mainstream Tory party will probably breathe a sigh of relief as attention now turns to Labour and UKIP's at best poor performance. Lib Dems probably quite happy with a 3rd place in what was always hostile territory0
-
Its a big win after 6 years in power.RobD said:
I think it is a steady as she goes win. A big win would have been Tories 60%+, I think.HYUFD said:
Big win for May which she needed after Richmond Park, UKIP little changed but moved up to second, LDs will be pleased with further progress and bad night for Labour falling from second to fourth. GoodnightAndyJS said:Con 17,517
UKIP 4,486
LD 3,606
Lab 3,363
Lincs Ind 2,892
Payne 462
Loony 2000 -
Only the Lib Dems increased their raw vote total from the GE.0
-
Per Britain Elects:
Sleaford & North Hykeham result:
CON: 53.5% (-2.7)
UKIP: 13.5% (-2.2)
LDEM: 11.0% (+5.3)
LAB: 10.2% (-7.0)
LIND: 8.8% (+3.6)0 -
Well whatever happens in Thanet South, I suspect it will be Blue in 12 months time,0
-
+5.3% - Lib Dem
+3.6% - Lincs Ind
-2.2% - UKIP
-2.8% - Conservative
-7.1% - Labour0 -
There must have been a big swing from Lab to LD.williamglenn said:Only the Lib Dems increased their raw vote total from the GE.
0 -
Zac Goldsmith actually polled slightly more votes than the winning Tory tonight.0
-
Has the major Opposition party ever gone from 2nd to 4th in a by-election?
It's an astonishingly bad result for Lab. And it's not as if opposition to the Govt congregated around anyone else.0 -
So more than 10% above par? very nice!brokenwheel said:Very impressive for the Tories to maintain that vote share despite the huge drop in turnout. For perspective;
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/8068341896098775040 -
Tory votes:
Sleaford by-election: 17,517
Newark by-election: 17,4310 -
The absence of a Green candidate may have helped the LibDems a bit, any idea why they did not stand? If they had I would imagine a few hundred LibDem/Lab voters may have drifted to them.0
-
A fantastic result for the Tories and another pointer toward #Mayday. Holding vote share six and a half years into a government when one of your own MP's has quit in a huff is quite a feat. The fact the opposition vote didn't coalesce is another sign voters there aren't too angry.
I still think we're in the Brown bounce stage of the May premiership but a bounce she's been wise enough not **** up with ramping then cancelling an election. Surely the plan is to call #Mayday immediately after A50 in March meaning the **** doesn't hit the fan until after she's back with an increased m ?0 -
Useless fact; there are now 195 women MPs in the Commons which is exactly 30%, the first time it's reached that level.0
-
The Greens and the NHA Party backed one of the Independents, Sarah Stock , campaigning on local services.swing_voter said:The absence of a Green candidate may have helped the LibDems a bit, any idea why they did not stand? If they had I would imagine a few hundred LibDem/Lab voters may have drifted to them.
0 -
I only just realised May 4th is a Thursday! Is May a Star Wars fan, I wonder?YellowSubmarine said:A fantastic result for the Tories and another pointer toward #Mayday. Holding vote share six and a half years into a government when one of your own MP's has quit in a huff is quite a feat. The fact the opposition vote didn't coalesce is another sign voters there aren't too angry.
I still think we're in the Brown bounce stage of the May premiership but a bounce she's been wise enough not **** up with ramping then cancelling an election. Surely the plan is to call #Mayday immediately after A50 in March meaning the **** doesn't hit the fan until after she's back with an increased m ?
0 -
The Greens haven't stood in this constituency since it was created in 1997. There can't be many seats where that is the case. Usually the Greens have put a candidate up at some time or other in most constituencies, even if it was just on one occasion.swing_voter said:The absence of a Green candidate may have helped the LibDems a bit, any idea why they did not stand? If they had I would imagine a few hundred LibDem/Lab voters may have drifted to them.
0 -
May the 4th be with youRobD said:
I only just realised May 4th is a Thursday! Is May a Star Wars fan, I wonder?YellowSubmarine said:A fantastic result for the Tories and another pointer toward #Mayday. Holding vote share six and a half years into a government when one of your own MP's has quit in a huff is quite a feat. The fact the opposition vote didn't coalesce is another sign voters there aren't too angry.
I still think we're in the Brown bounce stage of the May premiership but a bounce she's been wise enough not **** up with ramping then cancelling an election. Surely the plan is to call #Mayday immediately after A50 in March meaning the **** doesn't hit the fan until after she's back with an increased m ?
0 -
So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?0
-
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.edmundintokyo said:So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
0 -
May's a straightforward politician - she said no GE and that will mean no GE.
Only change will be if she gets blocked in the Commons - which looks unlikely.
It'll have to be a fairly Soft Brexit as Con MPs won't vote for a Hard Brexit, even with an increased majority.0 -
In Richmond Park the Tory vote went from 34,404 to 18,638.
In Sleaford & North Hykeham it went from 34,805 to 17,517.0 -
That'd be the Sun headline, surely?Sunil_Prasannan said:
May the 4th be with youRobD said:
I only just realised May 4th is a Thursday! Is May a Star Wars fan, I wonder?YellowSubmarine said:A fantastic result for the Tories and another pointer toward #Mayday. Holding vote share six and a half years into a government when one of your own MP's has quit in a huff is quite a feat. The fact the opposition vote didn't coalesce is another sign voters there aren't too angry.
I still think we're in the Brown bounce stage of the May premiership but a bounce she's been wise enough not **** up with ramping then cancelling an election. Surely the plan is to call #Mayday immediately after A50 in March meaning the **** doesn't hit the fan until after she's back with an increased m ?0 -
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.AndyJS said:
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.edmundintokyo said:So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
0 -
May would be on course for a landslide victory on those numbers.edmundintokyo said:
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.AndyJS said:
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.edmundintokyo said:So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
0 -
The LDs were 12% behind Labour at the general election. Tonight they beat Labour by 1%. That's probably the biggest story of the night. A 6.2% swing from Lab to LD.0
-
It would be like 1983 but with much less safety margin for Labour.RobD said:
May would be on course for a landslide victory on those numbers.edmundintokyo said:
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.AndyJS said:
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.edmundintokyo said:So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
0
