The circumstances of this by-election are sui generis. It tells you nothing ( on it's own ) about UK politics. That won't stop people framing it and some f those frames being sucessful. But in terms of the fundamentals ? The circumstances are bizarre. Sui Generis.
Is it though? If Zac got his wish and this is about Heathrow, then yes, it si sui generis, but if the Lib Dems have succeeded in making Brexit the main issue then Richmond Park could be the new normal politics.
I'm confused. I know what the "verification stage" is for postal votes: you take the votes out of their envelopes and check that the numbers and signatures match those on the outside. But what in the name of Jesus H Trump is the "verification stage" for non-postal votes?
It's a genuine question.
Opening the ballot boxes, unfolding the ballot papers and counting them so the total number of papers matches the log of that polling station. ( To prevent box stuffing ) It's the glimpses observers get during this that they tally. You can only see a few percent of votes cast but it's statistically significant.
I'm confused. I know what the "verification stage" is for postal votes: you take the votes out of their envelopes and check that the numbers and signatures match those on the outside. But what in the name of Jesus H Trump is the "verification stage" for non-postal votes?
It's a genuine question.
Opening the ballot boxes, unfolding the ballot papers and counting them so the total number of papers matches the log of that polling station. ( To prevent box stuffing ) It's the glimpses observers get during this that they tally. You can only see a few percent of votes cast but it's statistically significant.
Actually since the votes are put in piles face up, one at a time, you can actually see almost all the votes, if you have enough people watching. At one of my counts I looked at the tally sheets afterwards and reckoned we'd tallied over 75% of the total poll.
The circumstances of this by-election are sui generis. It tells you nothing ( on it's own ) about UK politics. That won't stop people framing it and some f those frames being sucessful. But in terms of the fundamentals ? The circumstances are bizarre. Sui Generis.
Is it though? If Zac got his wish and this is about Heathrow, then yes, it si sui generis, but if the Lib Dems have succeeded in making Brexit the main issue then Richmond Park could be the new normal politics.
How many Richmond Parks are there, even in terms of Brexit. Twickenham, next door, but how many others?
I've been out so am just catching up. After previously backing the LibDems and following DrFoxinsox in on his bet for Zac by a small majority, I'm inclined to let it ride.
The circumstances of this by-election are sui generis. It tells you nothing ( on it's own ) about UK politics. That won't stop people framing it and some f those frames being sucessful. But in terms of the fundamentals ? The circumstances are bizarre. Sui Generis.
Is it though? If Zac got his wish and this is about Heathrow, then yes, it si sui generis, but if the Lib Dems have succeeded in making Brexit the main issue then Richmond Park could be the new normal politics.
How many Richmond Parks are there, even in terms of Brexit. Twickenham, next door, but how many others?
Depends on if they message on trying to stop Brexit or mitigate Brexit. There are more places sympathetic to the latter even if not so much as Richmond, assuming for sake of argument the LDs can do this. Never write off the bland, even in 2016.
They should be mixed in and counted along with the rest; you shouldn't be able to know which are the PVs during the count (unless someone eagle eyed notices which tables they mostly ended up on)
But that's just one team's boxes. Someone will be collecting them and recording them at a central table, and the usual arrangement is to have one member of staff collecting each candidate's papers, or the same member of staff going round collecting each candidate's bundles one at a time. So the piles left at the table don't tell you that much - it depends on how they are organising things
There might be more niqabs and burqas per capita in London - and England - than any non-Muslim country on earth. Even in countries with larger Muslim populations - e.g. France - you seldom see the niqab.
What is it about British Muslims that makes these horrible shrouds so popular among them? Is it a particular kind of migrant/community? Is it some perverse kind of British Muslim fashion?
Here are a few reasons:
Burqas and niqabs should not be banned in the UK, they are a part of an increasing number of Muslim women's idenity and religious worship. Any ban would increase tensions and would create a nightmare for police and authorities to enforce. These women will not suddenly take off their burqas and go around uncovered, instead they will retreat into the home and not work or be in education. Also, Women do not endless debate what men should wear or campaign to ban men from wearing this or that particular clothing.
Then what we must do is make life pretty much unliveable for people like this - like you? - in the UK. Ban halal food, abolish all shariah courts, close down ANY Salafist or Wahhabi mosques, deport all extremist or anti-Semitic imams, make it difficult for Muslims to pray at odd hours, etc.
There is no alternative. Fundamentalist Islam - i.e.the kind of Islam that tolerates or desires the burqa - has absolutely no future in Europe.
In the end people will vote for white Fascist parties if the alternative is conservative Islam like this, determining our morality and our polity. We can see that already. France will lead the fight.
Vive Charles Martel. Vive La France. Vive Fillon.
"Know ye that it is the will of Allah (SWT) that we are all born stark, raving naked!" - Grand Ayatollah Nudistani.
Is that legal - tweeting photos of the counted ballots before the official announcement?
None of his tweets have been legal. When I first started going to counts you had to attend a JP a few days before to swear an oath of secrecy, and if you broke it you really did end up in jail. But the advent of mobile devices means people have pretty much given up on all that nowadays, although some counts do try and stop their use.
In Witney the Tory vote dropped from 35,201 to 17,313, a retention rate of 49.18%. The same retention in Richmond Park would see the Tories go from 34,404 to 16,920.
If the LDs do win, surely Corbyn will be able to get a good taunt in at next PMQs. Lisa g to the LDs is just embarrassing (we'll ignore labour barely place here end technically the Tories aren't standing)
In Witney the Tory vote dropped from 35,201 to 17,313, a retention rate of 49.18%. The same retention in Richmond Park would see the Tories go from 34,404 to 16,920.
In Witney the Tory vote dropped from 35,201 to 17,313, a retention rate of 49.18%. The same retention in Richmond Park would see the Tories go from 34,404 to 16,920.
Zac is an independent. He will lose some Tory tribalists for that alone.
There is a huge open goal for the LDs now. Become the official anti-Brexit party, north and south. Could split Labour wide open.
That takes them to the middle of 2019. As a "let's rejoin the EU" party they won't break 10%.
If the LD win tonight I will go on record that the LD will win the next GE or at least that the Tories will lose their majority.
I do enjoy your calm, hyperbole free analysis on politics.
Well when was the last time the LD enjoyed such huge swings from the Tories in Local and Westminster by-elections ? And didn't result in the Tories losing seats in the next GE ?
In Witney the Tory vote dropped from 35,201 to 17,313, a retention rate of 49.18%. The same retention in Richmond Park would see the Tories go from 34,404 to 16,920.
Although in this election the incumbent is standing so i'm not sure it will necessarily follow Witney.
But that's just one team's boxes. Someone will be collecting them and recording them at a central table, and the usual arrangement is to have one member of staff collecting each candidate's papers, or the same member of staff going round collecting each candidate's bundles one at a time. So the piles left at the table don't tell you that much - it depends on how they are organising things
1989 was probably more exciting, and certainly much more important, but I specifically said "within the realm of democratic politics we have had the most excitement possible" - ie. within electoral politics here in the west.
Things could definitely get more exciting, however one chooses to define that in electoral politics, in Western European politics.
MLP's inevitable victory in France could lead to the final rupture of Belgium as Wallonie will finally have French president who's willing to take them and their dole payments on.
This could embolden seccessionist movements all over Europe. Catalonia, Scotland, Corsica, Neutral Moresnet.
Corbyn could become UK PM. Anyone who now says this is 'impossible' is talking out of their arse. He just needs a sufficiently bad Brexit which May and the three frigging idiots look to be well on their way to delivering.
5SM takes power in Italy leading to Quitaly.
Post Trump, LePen and Corbyn NATO will be finished and the dominant European security structure will be a France-Russia power axis.
That still looks like one team's finished piles; although they are supposed to mix things up a little, that will still probably be from one set of boxes, not necessarily representative of the whole constituency.
Comments
cf Trump "needs a miracle"
This is 2016. Everything is filed under "Who fucking knows?"
That's high for a by-election.
This may be an anti-Tory wave.
Extraordinary
Con 488
LDem 228
Lab 194
Meanwhile, Saudi wives in burqas have been a common site at the (BUPA) Cromwell Hospital in London for many years.
If those don't include even a single postal vote then Goldsmith won.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804481775078637570
2015 figure was 59,101.
- Grand Ayatollah Nudistani.
Whose pile looks bigger ?
!!!
And didn't result in the Tories losing seats in the next GE ?
Of course it's only one pile.
NEW THREAD
MLP's inevitable victory in France could lead to the final rupture of Belgium as Wallonie will finally have French president who's willing to take them and their dole payments on.
This could embolden seccessionist movements all over Europe. Catalonia, Scotland, Corsica, Neutral Moresnet.
Corbyn could become UK PM. Anyone who now says this is 'impossible' is talking out of their arse. He just needs a sufficiently bad Brexit which May and the three frigging idiots look to be well on their way to delivering.
5SM takes power in Italy leading to Quitaly.
Post Trump, LePen and Corbyn NATO will be finished and the dominant European security structure will be a France-Russia power axis.
But it's a good picture for a journalist
The whole constituency can't be on one table surely?