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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local and Westminster by-election preview

Richmond Park (Ind defence, elected as Conservative) to Westminster Parliament Result of Parliament at last election (2015): Conservatives 331, Labour 232, Scottish National Party 56, Northern Ireland Parties 18, Liberal Democrats 8, Plaid Cymru 3, Green Party 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 12) Result of constituency at last election (2015): Conservative 34,404 (58%), Liberal Democrat 11,389 (19%), Labour 7,296 (12%), Green Party 3,548 (6%), United Kingdom Independence Party 2,464 (4%) EU Referendum Result (Borough): REMAIN 75,396 (69%) LEAVE 33,410 (31%) on a turnout of 82% Estimated Vote in constituency: REMAIN 72%, LEAVE 28% Candidates duly nominated: Zac Goldsmith (Ind), Alan Hope (Loony), Ankit Love (One Love), Sarah Olney (Lib Dem), David Powell (Non Party Independent), Dominic Stockford (Christian People’s Alliance), Fiona Syms (Independent Conservative), Christian Wolmar (Lab)

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TheScreamingEagles

Primus inter pares

Scrapheap_as_was

2nd like spurs

JosiasJessop

As ever, thanks Harry.

Pulpstar

113, like my IQ on a 15 SD.

Scrapheap_as_was

Vs Swansea.

Pulpstar

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/804432728628162560

I assume OGH lumped on the popular vote ?

YellowSubmarine

Somebody give us meaningless knocking up anecdata from Richmond Park.

AnneJGP

Many thanks, Harry. Much appreciated.

Pulpstar

YellowSubmarine said:

Somebody give us meaningless knocking up anecdata from Richmond Park.

Zac seen ashen faced emerging from the Dog & Duck.

foxinsoxuk

Some interesting locals too.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/804432728628162560

I assume OGH lumped on the popular vote ?

Nah. His ECV spread betting, when he bought Hillary and closed out at 12 times his stake.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/804432728628162560

I assume OGH lumped on the popular vote ?

Nah. His ECV spread betting, when he bought Hillary and closed out at 12 times his stake.

The man who sold out at the right time !

chestnut

FPT

MikeL said:

Not sure if already posted but seems an extraordinary statistic:

In Scotland, 27% of Labour voters at GE 2015 now support the Conservatives.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/11/yougov-mark-st-andrews-day/

Yougov's leader approval ratings in Scotland have subtly changed in the last 18 months. They don't bother with the Lib Dems any more.

MikeK

Anybody from PB at the count?

Sunil_Prasannan

YellowSubmarine said:

Somebody give us meaningless knocking up anecdata from Richmond Park.

The red deer are pregnant???

MikeK

Pulpstar said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Somebody give us meaningless knocking up anecdata from Richmond Park.

Zac seen ashen faced emerging from the Dog & Duck.

He's always ashen faced. When he grins crusts of soot fall from his eyebrows.

Pulpstar

MikeK said:

Anybody from PB at the count?

Isn't it your constituency ?

YellowSubmarine

The iPlayer schedule makes no sense but *suggests* This Week starts at 11.45 on BBC 1 then transmutes into a By-election Special running on BBC World News running till 0300. Or maybe the guide is just unclear.

Pulpstar

Has anyone polled the black minority ethnic voter in Richmond yet ?

chestnut

FPT

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032

As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.

Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.

I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.

200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.

Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.

It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.

Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.

YellowSubmarine

Sunil_Prasannan said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Somebody give us meaningless knocking up anecdata from Richmond Park.

The red deer are pregnant???

Very good Sunil, very good.

kle4

Insert joke about Tower Hamlets elections here.

MikeK

Pulpstar said:

MikeK said:

Anybody from PB at the count?

Isn't it your constituency ?

No. I left the area almost 18 months ago.

YellowSubmarine

Zac @ 1.42 on Betfair. Olney @ 3

nunu

Pulpstar said:

Has anyone polled the black minority ethnic voter in Richmond yet ?

Yes, I voted against my interest. Because i'm too stupid and racist to know what my interest is.

kle4

With by-elections, local or parliamentary, I generally hope for the most interesting result which is at least marginally plausible.

So LD Gain, LD Gain, UKIP Hold, Lab Gain, Ind gain and LD Gain.

kle4

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

FrancisUrquhart

Manuel from fawlty towers has died.

Dixie

YellowSubmarine said:

Zac @ 1.42 on Betfair. Olney @ 3

gotta put money on the Yellow at that level. well, at least a couple of shillings.

trawl

Off topic, just been in my BF a/c and see they have paid out on Michigan. On POTUS night someone posted on PB to start thinking about a Trump win there in the light of the early results. Apologies I can't recall who but thanks whoever it was.

Jonathan

FrancisUrquhart said:

Manuel from fawlty towers has died.

2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.

glw

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

Errr I don't want to be picky but surely Trump winning was in fact very Brexity in terms of the polling, odds, and the "shocking" outcome. GE 2015 and Corbyn's 1st victory aren't far off it either.

YellowSubmarine

Had my best ever Brexit discussion today. Chatting to a German Psychotherapist who lives here working for the NHS. She moves in overwhelmingly Remainian circles but was calling the referendum for Leave months in advance to her friends/collegues bewilderment. It was based on her fascinating analysis of watching dubbed versions of Upstairs, Downstairs in Germany as a child then comparing it to Downtown Abbey here as an adult. She argues , as you'd expect from a psychotherapist , that the myths we we tell about ourselves say a lot about our national self conscious.

Jonathan

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.

Big_G_NorthWales

Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%

MikeK

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

Wrong! The break-up of the EU is just beginning.

kle4

glw said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

Errr I don't want to be picky but surely Trump winning was in fact very Brexity in terms of the polling, odds, and the "shocking" outcome. GE 2015 and Corbyn's 1st victory aren't far off it either.

Experiencing a US election is different to experiencing one on the home front, in my view. As for comparing a longstanding outsider winning a party election with the titanic nature of the Brexit vote, well, how dare you, sir or madam.

kle4

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.

Corbyn wins snap GE?

Scrapheap_as_was

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%

Farage has just conceded....

foxinsoxuk

chestnut said:

FPT

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032

As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.

Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.

I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.

200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.

Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.

It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.

Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.

I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016

So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.

It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.

YellowSubmarine

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

It's perfectly plausible, even likely that 2017 will see #Mayday

FrankBooth

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

It might be for some. And there's the added bonus that even if the result goes against your side it doesn't matter anyway.

SimonStClare

FrancisUrquhart said:

Manuel from fawlty towers has died.

I Know Nothing! - Andrew Sachs RIP

Pulpstar

foxinsoxuk said:

chestnut said:

FPT

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032

As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.

Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.

I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.

200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.

Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.

It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.

Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.

I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016

So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.

It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.

Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).

Where are all the extra people living ?

Barnesian

MikeK said:

Anybody from PB at the count?

Not me - and I haven't even got a mole.

IanB2

Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...

On Betfair the LDs have shaded out to about 3.0

Jonathan

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.

Corbyn wins snap GE?

Golden rule of politics these days, just when you think it can't get worse it does in new and more depressing ways

AnneJGP

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

Hard to believe even that would be any kind of a match. In June it was commonly thought to be all over bar the shouting, even after voting ceased. We know now that the seemingly inevitable can be over-turned.

But hard to believe, also, that we will ever again be offered a referendum on anything - now that the seemingly inevitable result has been over-turned by those pesky voters once.

FrancisUrquhart

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H-oH-TELcLE

kle4

IanB2 said:

Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...

Who doesn't claim a good result in these situations? Trying to overturn such a massive majority, just getting within shouting distance would be said to be good.

another_richard

YellowSubmarine said:

Had my best ever Brexit discussion today. Chatting to a German Psychotherapist who lives here working for the NHS. She moves in overwhelmingly Remainian circles but was calling the referendum for Leave months in advance to her friends/collegues bewilderment. It was based on her fascinating analysis of watching dubbed versions of Upstairs, Downstairs in Germany as a child then comparing it to Downtown Abbey here as an adult. She argues , as you'd expect from a psychotherapist , that the myths we we tell about ourselves say a lot about our national self conscious.

How did they compare and what did that mean politically ?

I've never watched Downton Abbey but have seen a few episodes of Upstairs, Downstairs on ITV encore - surprisingly watchable IMO.

glw

kle4 said:

Experiencing a US election is different to experiencing one on the home front, in my view.

You have a good point about the experience, but the event itself was certainly similar. Some of our neighbours might have their own "Brexits" soon.

Barnesian

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%

I think that's right. Low turnout. Allegedly 35% in my local polling station.

Jonathan

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Manuel from fawlty towers has died.

2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.

2016 will go down as one of the best years of my life. I went to these countries: Thailand, Kenya (to see the last northern white rhinos on earth), Bhutan, Calabria in Italy (ate best dish of my life), Ticino in Switzerland, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Portugal, Chile, Bolivia, Peru (climbed to 18,400 feet), Dordogne in France, and Australia (where I stayed in Australia's best hotel).

I also slept with several exquisite young women, saw the UK exit the EU (a lifelong ambition), and laughed long and hard at the election of Donald Trump. And I made £200,000 from royalties just by sitting on my fat smug arse.

I fully expect to get a richly deserved face cancer in 2017, and to spend most of it in Macclesfield. The pendulum must swing.

Must be weird to find yourself on the centre left of politics now.

Pulpstar

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%

I think that's right. Low turnout. Allegedly 35% in my local polling station.

Is your particular polling station more likely to be a strong Lib Dem or Tory one ?

TCPoliticalBetting

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

chestnut said:

FPT

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032

As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.

Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.

I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.

200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.

Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.

It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.

Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.

I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016

So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.

It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.

Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).

Where are all the extra people living ?

Are you saying that immigration drives up housing prices and rental costs?
shock
Next you may think that immigration keeps wages down. Just wait for the europhile deniers to pile in....

Jobabob

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Manuel from fawlty towers has died.

2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.

2016 will go down as one of the best years of my life. I went to these countries: Thailand, Kenya (to see the last northern white rhinos on earth), Bhutan, Calabria in Italy (ate best dish of my life), Ticino in Switzerland, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Portugal, Chile, Bolivia, Peru (climbed to 18,400 feet), Dordogne in France, and Australia (where I stayed in Australia's best hotel).

I also slept with several exquisite young women, saw the UK exit the EU (a lifelong ambition), and laughed long and hard at the election of Donald Trump. And I made £200,000 from royalties just by sitting on my fat smug arse.

I fully expect to get a richly deserved face cancer in 2017, and to spend most of it in Macclesfield. The pendulum must swing.

Charlie Falconer's resignation was the highlight for me.

FrankBooth

IanB2 said:

Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...

On Betfair the LDs have shaded out to about 3.0

Nothing less than a win is a good result for the Lib Dems. It's a former seat of theirs, lost to a liberally inclined Tory who then turned into Richard Nixon as candidate for London mayor. It's thought of as a very pro-EU area with the whole election a bit of a farce, reflecting badly on both the Tories and Goldsmith. The Greens have even stood aside for them.

Pulpstar

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

chestnut said:

FPT

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032

As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.

Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.

I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.

200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.

Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.

It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.

Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.

I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016

So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.

It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.

Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).

Where are all the extra people living ?

Are you saying that immigration drives up housing prices and rental costs?
shock
Next you may think that immigration keeps wages down. Just wait for the europhile deniers to pile in....

Obviously price is a function of demand, my question simply is where are all the extra people living !

ThreeQuidder

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...

Who doesn't claim a good result in these situations? Trying to overturn such a massive majority, just getting within shouting distance would be said to be good.

Well, they'll be able to claim a huge swing from Conservative no matter what happens!

Dixie

I've got a great picture of Zac trying to hold a pint glass. Just had Coke in it. He didn't want to do it...smiling but hating me. How do I upload it to PB?

Sunil_Prasannan

SimonStClare said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Manuel from fawlty towers has died.

I Know Nothing! - Andrew Sachs RIP

"I can speak English! I learn it from a book!"

foxinsoxuk

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H-oH-TELcLE

Euro migration before Spain joined, to fill a job because he is cheap...

Take back control!

Dixie

FrankBooth said:

IanB2 said:

Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...

On Betfair the LDs have shaded out to about 3.0

Nothing less than a win is a good result for the Lib Dems. It's a former seat of theirs, lost to a liberally inclined Tory who then turned into Richard Nixon as candidate for London mayor. It's thought of as a very pro-EU area with the whole election a bit of a farce, reflecting badly on both the Tories and Goldsmith. The Greens have even stood aside for them.

I agree

Pulpstar

Dixie said:

I've got a great picture of Zac trying to hold a pint glass. Just had Coke in it. He didn't want to do it...smiling but hating me. How do I upload it to PB?

Post it onto twitter, then link the tweet.

rural_voter

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

chestnut said:

FPT

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032

As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.

Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.

I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.

200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.

Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.

It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.

Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.

I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016

So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.

It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.

Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).

Where are all the extra people living ?

Er, in garden sheds in Slough I think. Or with the in-laws.

murali_s

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Manuel from fawlty towers has died.

2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.

2016 will go down as one of the best years of my life. I went to these countries: Thailand, Kenya (to see the last northern white rhinos on earth), Bhutan, Calabria in Italy (ate best dish of my life), Ticino in Switzerland, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Portugal, Chile, Bolivia, Peru (climbed to 18,400 feet), Dordogne in France, and Australia (where I stayed in Australia's best hotel).

I also slept with several exquisite young women, saw the UK exit the EU (a lifelong ambition), and laughed long and hard at the election of Donald Trump. And I made £200,000 from royalties just by sitting on my fat smug arse.

I fully expect to get a richly deserved face cancer in 2017, and to spend most of it in Macclesfield. The pendulum must swing.

Charlie Falconer's resignation was the highlight for me.

He's RESIGNED???

That's news to me too - he's still clinging on was the last I heard.

SimonStClare

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SimonStClare said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Manuel from fawlty towers has died.

I Know Nothing! - Andrew Sachs RIP

"I can speak English! I learn it from a book!"

Que?

murali_s

Dixie said:

I've got a great picture of Zac trying to hold a pint glass. Just had Coke in it. He didn't want to do it...smiling but hating me. How do I upload it to PB?

That Zac/Bollywood clip is pure comedy gold - someone load it up please.

Dixie

Pulpstar said:

Dixie said:

I've got a great picture of Zac trying to hold a pint glass. Just had Coke in it. He didn't want to do it...smiling but hating me. How do I upload it to PB?

Post it onto twitter, then link the tweet.

I'm feeling guilty now. Anyway, not sure I want to post it on my actual twitter as i use my real name on that.

another_richard

Pulpstar said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

chestnut said:

FPT

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032

As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.

Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.

I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.

200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.

Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.

It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.

Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.

I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016

So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.

It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.

Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).

Where are all the extra people living ?

Are you saying that immigration drives up housing prices and rental costs?
shock
Next you may think that immigration keeps wages down. Just wait for the europhile deniers to pile in....

Obviously price is a function of demand, my question simply is where are all the extra people living !

In smaller and smaller spaces.

williamglenn

Dixie said:

Pulpstar said:

Dixie said:

I've got a great picture of Zac trying to hold a pint glass. Just had Coke in it. He didn't want to do it...smiling but hating me. How do I upload it to PB?

Post it onto twitter, then link the tweet.

I'm feeling guilty now. Anyway, not sure I want to post it on my actual twitter as i use my real name on that.

Upload it to TinyPic.com

FF43

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anyway

Dromedary

This is how an Italian friend sees the position in Italy:

* NO will win on Sunday, which means Grillo will win

* M5S will win a plurality in the next general election

* a NO win will probably lead to the end of the majority bonus system, so M5S will not win a majority in the lower house

* how Grillo will make use of his win is unclear

The issue of the majority bonus system is NOT being reported much in the "Anglo-American" press, if one may use an adjective that is popular in France and Italy. Said press prefers to write of how "complicated" the referendum issue is. Yeah right.

Goodness knows why, but Renzi is giving the same hand signal as Trump:



Renzi's promise to resign if NO wins has spurred people to vote NO. He appears to be a bit thick in his head, or maybe someone has slipped something in his water or has just told him he's got to go:

"I made an error in the beginning by personalising the referendum. I don’t want to make the same mistake now. To err is human, to persevere, diabolical."

Who wants a prime minister who talks like that?

Jobabob

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Manuel from fawlty towers has died.

2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.

2016 will go down as one of the best years of my life. I went to these countries: Thailand, Kenya (to see the last northern white rhinos on earth), Bhutan, Calabria in Italy (ate best dish of my life), Ticino in Switzerland, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Portugal, Chile, Bolivia, Peru (climbed to 18,400 feet), Dordogne in France, and Australia (where I stayed in Australia's best hotel).

I also slept with several exquisite young women, saw the UK exit the EU (a lifelong ambition), and laughed long and hard at the election of Donald Trump. And I made £200,000 from royalties just by sitting on my fat smug arse.

I fully expect to get a richly deserved face cancer in 2017, and to spend most of it in Macclesfield. The pendulum must swing.

Must be weird to find yourself on the centre left of politics now.

AnneJGP said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

Hard to believe even that would be any kind of a match. In June it was commonly thought to be all over bar the shouting, even after voting ceased. We know now that the seemingly inevitable can be over-turned.

But hard to believe, also, that we will ever again be offered a referendum on anything - now that the seemingly inevitable result has been over-turned by those pesky voters once.

Brexit will soon be proved to be a complete waste of time and money. Whether you like its ideals or not it's implementation will be a shambles - either that or it will be so wat

SeanT said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Manuel from fawlty towers has died.

2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.

2016 will go down as one of the best years of SNIP

I fully expect to get a richly deserved face cancer in 2017, and to spend most of it in Macclesfield. The pendulum must swing.

Charlie Falconer's resignation was the highlight for me.

He's RESIGNED???

In noisy times, quiet revolutions slip by unheard.

Sunil_Prasannan

Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2016 Edition. Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time.

Jan: Kidsgrove to Manchester Piccadilly, Overton to Salisbury, Ashford to Eastbourne, Manningtree to Harwich

Feb: Nottingham to Hucknall (NET tram), Alderley Edge to Cheadle Hulme, Manchester Piccadilly to Ashton (Metrolink), Chester to Liverpool via Birkenhead, Newhaven Harbour to Seaford

March: Ford to Bognor Regis, Polegate to Eastbourne, Crowhurst to St Leonards, Petersfield to Portsmouth, Portsmouth to Eastleigh, Derby to Matlock, Matlock to Rowsley South (Peak Rail)

Apr: Faversham to Dover, Ely to Kings Lynn, Liverpool to Southport, Thorpe-le-Soken to Walton-on-Naze

May: Ely to Norwich, Cambridge to Stowmarket, Stockport to Buxton, Barnham to Havant, Bedhampton to Cosham, Fareham to St Denys (Southampton), Ryde to Shanklin (Isle of Wight), Bull Street to New Street (Midland Metro)

Jun: Ipswich to Lowestoft, Nottingham to Chesterfield, Nottingham to Clifton South (NET), Nottingham to Toton Lane (NET), David Lane to Phoenix Park (NET), Peterborough to Lincoln, Ramsgate to Dover

Jul: Gloucester to Newport (Wales), Liverpool to Wigan North Western, Southampton to Weymouth, Nottingham to Lincoln, Grantham to Skegness, Gobowen to Chester, Norwich to Great Yarmouth (via Acle), Great Yarmouth to Norwich (via Berney Arms), Sileby to Melton Mowbray, Ipswich to Felixstowe

Aug: Nottingham to Worksop, Salisbury to Westbury, Winsford to Manchester Airport, Manchester Airport to Piccadilly, Eastleigh to Salisbury, Norwich to Sheringham, Manchester Piccadilly to Leeds (via Huddersfield), Guide Bridge to Hadfield (via Glossop), Hadfield to Dinting

Sep: Piccadilly to Bury (Manchester Metrolink), Salisbury to Exeter St. Davids (via Yeovil), Sheffield Station to Halfway (Supertram), Gleadless Townend to Herdings Park (Supertram), Brockenhurst to Lymington Pier, Birkenhead Hamilton Square to West Kirby, Birkenhead North to New Brighton, Reedham (Norfolk) to Lowestoft, Ely to Kennett, Wigan North Western to Preston

Oct: Pewsey to Newton Abbot (avoiding Westbury and Frome, and via Exeter St Davids), Stockport to Chester (via Altrincham), Redbridge (Hants.) to Romsey, Sheffield to Doncaster (avoiding Rotherham), Chippenham to Trowbridge, Manchester Piccadilly to Liverpool (via Warrington Central), Huyton to Manchester Deansgate (via Newton-le-Willows), Castle Cary to Yeovil Junction (via Pen Mill), Bruton to Frome, Hooton to Ellesmere Port, Ellesmere Port to Helsby, Bristol to Taunton (avoiding Weston-super-Mare), Langley Green to Smethwick Rolfe Street (rare track!)

Nov: Hazel Grove to Sheffield, Sandhills (Liverpool) to Ormskirk, Worle to Highbridge and Burnham (via Weston), Sheffield University to Malin Bridge (Supertram), Hillsborough to Middlewood (Supertram), Fitzalan Square to Meadowhall (Supertram), Piccadilly Gardens to Altrincham (Metrolink), Cornbrook to Eccles (Metrolink), Harbour City to Media City (Metrolink).

FrankBooth

Good things about 2016? Cameron's sudden resignation not even being the number 1 news story of the day. And er....... that's about it.

TCPoliticalBetting

Pulpstar said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

chestnut said:

FPT

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032

As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.

Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.

I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.

200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.

Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.

It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.

Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.

I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016

So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.

It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.

Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).

Where are all the extra people living ?

Are you saying that immigration drives up housing prices and rental costs?
shock
Next you may think that immigration keeps wages down. Just wait for the europhile deniers to pile in....

Obviously price is a function of demand, my question simply is where are all the extra people living !

3 bedroom rented places now with at least 6 people, sometimes 9.

Dixie

Tories have been canvassing tonight in Richmond Park that have finally confirmed. they've told me that Libs have won.

Chris_from_Paris

O/T French election

After Hollande's announcement, the picture gets even more complicated on the left.

Most socialists are trying to stay on message tonight, saluting a "dignified and lucid" speech (to be honest, he mainly looked and sounded like a very sad, tired and broken man).

But the deadline for the left-wing primary candidacies is in less than two weeks and Hollande's decision is opening up the game.

It is a virtual certainty that Valls will announce his candidacy either on Friday or Saturday. The expecteation is that he will resign as PM to be able to campaign full-time. His most likely successor for this interim role would be Bernard Cazeneuve (Interior minister, very close to Hollande).

Now the problem is for the centre (or Hollandist) branch of the party, formerly dominant. The current candidates all represent either the left wing (Hamon, Montebourg, Filoche, Lienemann), the small allied parties (de Rugy and Benhamias) or the right-wing (Valls).

Thus there are rumors other candidates from that wing could enter the race: Najat Vallaud-Belkacem (education minister, 39) or Marisol Touraine (Health Minister, 59). Both are women and would guarantee a female particpation (Lienemann is not sure to get the needed number of supporters). NVB, who was born in Morocco, would also bring another touch of "diversity".

The dream of the "diversity" branch of the left is to have Christiane Taubira run. Taubira, 64, is a black woman who is mostly known as the Minister who prepared and defended in Parliament the Gay marriage law and the Justice Minister who pleaded against new anti-terror laws. She would get massive press support and would probably do well with the most militant base. She would of course have no chance in the general election but so do most of the others...

foxinsoxuk

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anyway

1990 with the defenestration of Maggie was a great day to be alive, as was watching the country turn red in May 1997.

The_Apocalypse

The only political highlight of 2016 for me was Nigel Farage losing in South Thanet.

Outside of that, it was a pretty disappointing year.

MikeK

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%

I think that's right. Low turnout. Allegedly 35% in my local polling station.

So, Olney the Lonely ?

Jobabob

AnneJGP said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

Hard to believe even that would be any kind of a match. In June it was commonly thought to be all over bar the shouting, even after voting ceased. We know now that the seemingly inevitable can be over-turned.

But hard to believe, also, that we will ever again be offered a referendum on anything - now that the seemingly inevitable result has been over-turned by those pesky voters once.

Brexit will soon be proved to be a complete waste of time and money. Whether you like its ideals or not it's implementation will be a shambles - either that or it will be so watered down as to make no difference. Probably the former.

Scott_P

@STJamesl: #RichmondPark chat
LD sources "it's tighter than a Nats f***ing chuff - 3k either way

foxinsoxuk

The_Apocalypse said:

The only political highlight of 2016 for me was Nigel Farage losing in South Thanet.

Outside of that, it was a pretty disappointing year.

That was 2015 surely?

Pulpstar

The_Apocalypse said:

The only political highlight of 2016 for me was Nigel Farage losing in South Thanet.

Outside of that, it was a pretty disappointing year.

Farage lost in 2015, won big in 2016.

Luckyguy1983

Dixie said:

Tories have been canvassing tonight in Richmond Park that have finally confirmed. they've told me that Libs have won.

That's big!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/804452790659674112

chestnut

foxinsoxuk said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anyway

1990 with the defenestration of Maggie was a great day to be alive, as was watching the country turn red in May 1997.

In the context of where we are in 2016, May 1997 has to be considered one of the most stupid decisions the electorate have ever made.

Luckyguy1983

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anyway

1990 with the defenestration of Maggie was a great day to be alive, as was watching the country turn red in May 1997.

In the context of where we are in 2016, May 1997 has to be considered one of the most stupid decisions the electorate have ever made.

But it felt good at the time - that's all you ever need to know about left wing politics.

The_Apocalypse

Pulpstar said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The only political highlight of 2016 for me was Nigel Farage losing in South Thanet.

Outside of that, it was a pretty disappointing year.

Farage lost in 2015, won big in 2016.

You're right. For some reason the 2015 GE feels like it was so recent. The fact I picked an event that happened last year shows (a. I'm going crazy (b. 2016 was a really terrible year for liberals.

Dixie

Luckyguy1983 said:

Dixie said:

Tories have been canvassing tonight in Richmond Park that have finally confirmed. they've told me that Libs have won.

That's big!

Of course, they really don't know. Just their feeling. They're on the phone now, they are so miserable. I can't get them off the phone.

YellowSubmarine

@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.

She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..

So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.

foxinsoxuk

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anyway

1990 with the defenestration of Maggie was a great day to be alive, as was watching the country turn red in May 1997.

In the context of where we are in 2016, May 1997 has to be considered one of the most stupid decisions the electorate have ever made.

One of many poor decisions perhaps, but thats democracy.

I would argue that the 1997 Labour govt was pretty good. It was the second rerm that both Tony and Gordon got drunk on power and went bonkers.

IanB2

IanB2 said:

Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...

On Betfair the LDs have shaded out to about 3.0

Correction, now polls have closed the LibDems are on 2.52, with Zac on 1.53

Paristonda

kle4 said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.

Corbyn wins snap GE?

Corbyn winning would send this site into a bigger meltdown than Trump and Brexit combined

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/804452790659674112

It doesn't seem especially bonkers, just desperate and ignoring some key factors making stopping Brexit more than merely 'not easy'.

kle4

Luckyguy1983 said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?

We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.

It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.

We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.

*sigh*

1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anyway

1990 with the defenestration of Maggie was a great day to be alive, as was watching the country turn red in May 1997.

In the context of where we are in 2016, May 1997 has to be considered one of the most stupid decisions the electorate have ever made.

But it felt good at the time - that's all you ever need to know about left wing politics.

I really don't think that's an attitude unique to the left wing. Is one more inclined to that sort of thing? That's a more difficult one.

Paristonda

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%

Farage has just conceded....

Hillary looking strong in Florida