viewcode said:

I'm confused. I know what the "verification stage" is for postal votes: you take the votes out of their envelopes and check that the numbers and signatures match those on the outside. But what in the name of Jesus H Trump is the "verification stage" for non-postal votes?

It's a genuine question.

Opening the ballot boxes, unfolding the ballot papers and counting them so the total number of papers matches the log of that polling station. ( To prevent box stuffing ) It's the glimpses observers get during this that they tally. You can only see a few percent of votes cast but it's statistically significant.

AndyJS said:

"Lib Dem source: “I think we’ve won.” #RichmondPark."

http://www.coombemonthly.co.uk/richmondpark-by-election-live-blog/

cf Nigel Farage: I think we've lost.

cf Trump "needs a miracle"

This is 2016. Everything is filed under "Who fucking knows?"

DecrepitJohnL said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The circumstances of this by-election are sui generis. It tells you nothing ( on it's own ) about UK politics. That won't stop people framing it and some f those frames being sucessful. But in terms of the fundamentals ? The circumstances are bizarre. Sui Generis.

Is it though? If Zac got his wish and this is about Heathrow, then yes, it si sui generis, but if the Lib Dems have succeeded in making Brexit the main issue then Richmond Park could be the new normal politics.

How many Richmond Parks are there, even in terms of Brexit. Twickenham, next door, but how many others?

53.6%

Pulpstar said:

53.6%

Boy, some of those earlier predictions were way off.

Zac's about to hit 4 on Betfair now.

Extraordinary

TheScreamingEagles said:

Zac's about to hit 4 on Betfair now.

Extraordinary

Will the postals come in later or something ?

Warwick figures

Con 488
LDem 228
Lab 194

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Zac's about to hit 4 on Betfair now.

Extraordinary

Will the postals come in later or something ?

Not sure. I've lumped back onto Zac

If those are postal votes the LD have won.
If those don't include even a single postal vote then Goldsmith won.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804481775078637570

It is official, I have a gambling addiction, I needed to be in bed an hour ago, but I can't stop myself betting on this sodding by election

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804482581391609860

That's high for a by-election.

This may be an anti-Tory wave.

There is a huge open goal for the LDs now. Become the official anti-Brexit party, north and south. Could split Labour wide open.

That takes them to the middle of 2019. As a "let's rejoin the EU" party they won't break 10%.

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804482581391609860

That's high for a by-election.

This may be an anti-Tory wave.

Faisal can't even get the turnout % right not sure why we're relying on him for dodgy info !

He adds excitement I guess.

Speedy said:

If those are postal votes the LD have won.
If those don't include even a single postal vote then Goldsmith won.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804481775078637570

But that's just one team's boxes. Someone will be collecting them and recording them at a central table, and the usual arrangement is to have one member of staff collecting each candidate's papers, or the same member of staff going round collecting each candidate's bundles one at a time. So the piles left at the table don't tell you that much - it depends on how they are organising things

SeanT said:

pinkrose said:

FPT

SeanT said:

There might be more niqabs and burqas per capita in London - and England - than any non-Muslim country on earth. Even in countries with larger Muslim populations - e.g. France - you seldom see the niqab.

What is it about British Muslims that makes these horrible shrouds so popular among them? Is it a particular kind of migrant/community? Is it some perverse kind of British Muslim fashion?

Here are a few reasons:

Burqas and niqabs should not be banned in the UK, they are a part of an increasing number of Muslim women's idenity and religious worship. Any ban would increase tensions and would create a nightmare for police and authorities to enforce. These women will not suddenly take off their burqas and go around uncovered, instead they will retreat into the home and not work or be in education. Also, Women do not endless debate what men should wear or campaign to ban men from wearing this or that particular clothing.

Then what we must do is make life pretty much unliveable for people like this - like you? - in the UK. Ban halal food, abolish all shariah courts, close down ANY Salafist or Wahhabi mosques, deport all extremist or anti-Semitic imams, make it difficult for Muslims to pray at odd hours, etc.

There is no alternative. Fundamentalist Islam - i.e.the kind of Islam that tolerates or desires the burqa - has absolutely no future in Europe.

In the end people will vote for white Fascist parties if the alternative is conservative Islam like this, determining our morality and our polity. We can see that already. France will lead the fight.

Vive Charles Martel. Vive La France. Vive Fillon.

"Know ye that it is the will of Allah (SWT) that we are all born stark, raving naked!"
- Grand Ayatollah Nudistani.

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/dadge/status/804484213848371201

Whose pile looks bigger ?

Zac's

Paristonda said:

Speedy said:

If those are postal votes the LD have won.
If those don't include even a single postal vote then Goldsmith won.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804481775078637570

Is that legal - tweeting photos of the counted ballots before the official announcement?

None of his tweets have been legal. When I first started going to counts you had to attend a JP a few days before to swear an oath of secrecy, and if you broke it you really did end up in jail. But the advent of mobile devices means people have pretty much given up on all that nowadays, although some counts do try and stop their use.

The Lib Dem numbers look accurate.

!!!

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804482581391609860

That's high for a by-election.

This may be an anti-Tory wave.

Faisal can't even get the turnout % right not sure why we're relying on him for dodgy info !

He adds excitement I guess.

Comedic value more like!

Speedy said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804482581391609860

That's high for a by-election.

This may be an anti-Tory wave.

There is a huge open goal for the LDs now. Become the official anti-Brexit party, north and south. Could split Labour wide open.

That takes them to the middle of 2019. As a "let's rejoin the EU" party they won't break 10%.

If the LD win tonight I will go on record that the LD will win the next GE or at least that the Tories will lose their majority.

From 8 MPs to >300?

If the LDs do win, surely Corbyn will be able to get a good taunt in at next PMQs. Lisa g to the LDs is just embarrassing (we'll ignore labour barely place here end technically the Tories aren't standing)

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Zac's about to hit 4 on Betfair now.

Extraordinary

Will the postals come in later or something ?

Not sure. I've lumped back onto Zac

Nope, they're already in the mix

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Zac's about to hit 4 on Betfair now.

Extraordinary

Will the postals come in later or something ?

Not sure. I've lumped back onto Zac

Nope, they're already in the mix

Gained some UKIP tribalists though?

AndyJS said:

In Witney the Tory vote dropped from 35,201 to 17,313, a retention rate of 49.18%. The same retention in Richmond Park would see the Tories go from 34,404 to 16,920.

Although in this election the incumbent is standing so i'm not sure it will necessarily follow Witney.

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Zac's about to hit 4 on Betfair now.

Extraordinary

Will the postals come in later or something ?

Not sure. I've lumped back onto Zac

Nope, they're already in the mix

Gained some UKIP tribalists though?

There aren't many of those in richmond.

MaxPB said:

Speedy said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804482581391609860

That's high for a by-election.

This may be an anti-Tory wave.

There is a huge open goal for the LDs now. Become the official anti-Brexit party, north and south. Could split Labour wide open.

That takes them to the middle of 2019. As a "let's rejoin the EU" party they won't break 10%.

If the LD win tonight I will go on record that the LD will win the next GE or at least that the Tories will lose their majority.

From 8 MPs to >300?

last May I did put a fiver each at 500/1 on LD most seats and kippers most seats.

Speedy said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804484828943024128

The Goldsmith pile is a lot springier. They just showed someone lifting some from it and a lot of the height is air.

Can they just start bloody counting?

NEW THREAD

SeanT said:

1989 was probably more exciting, and certainly much more important, but I specifically said "within the realm of democratic politics we have had the most excitement possible" - ie. within electoral politics here in the west.

Things could definitely get more exciting, however one chooses to define that in electoral politics, in Western European politics.

MLP's inevitable victory in France could lead to the final rupture of Belgium as Wallonie will finally have French president who's willing to take them and their dole payments on.

This could embolden seccessionist movements all over Europe. Catalonia, Scotland, Corsica, Neutral Moresnet.

Corbyn could become UK PM. Anyone who now says this is 'impossible' is talking out of their arse. He just needs a sufficiently bad Brexit which May and the three frigging idiots look to be well on their way to delivering.

5SM takes power in Italy leading to Quitaly.

Post Trump, LePen and Corbyn NATO will be finished and the dominant European security structure will be a France-Russia power axis.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/dadge/status/804484213848371201

Whose pile looks bigger ?

Zac's

If it's this close it could go either way: it's a coin toss. So whichever candidate has the "larger" odds (100/1 = high, 1/100 = low) is value.

NEW THREAD!!!!!!!!!!!

MikeL said:

kle4 said:

MikeL said:

Am I missing something - in the picture tweeted the Zac pile looks higher to me.

Of course it's only one pile.

It does look higher, but that still means closer than many thought it would be, and thus the LDs have a shot.

But presumably there are lots of different tables - that's only one table.

The whole constituency can't be on one table surely?

Certainly not, him being up on that table means they have hope depending on the others.

.