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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the dramatic political events in the US tonight’s Lo

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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    I think that is fine but her behaviour is that of a teenager not getting her way. Rabb was very sensible & she spent the whole time huffing.
    Yup.

    Incidentally, I'm finding my mates-who-moved-to-America are FAR angrier than my born-American mates. Most amusing.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rkrkrk said:

    Okay... so that would be UK, Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand?
    Some of the libertarian Brexit outriders have been going on about CANZUK (i.e. that lot minus the US) for years. I don't suppose that it's impossible, but I'll believe it when I see it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,638

    The tricky one is the Trump 47% market, I had another attempt at calculating it and got about 46.96%, it's very close to be sure.
    Out of interest... what assumptions did you make?
    Did you assume late votes will be equal trump v. clinton split as those already gone?

    I'm trying to spreadsheet it at the moment using CNN figures but must be making a mistake as I can't make the totals add up...
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @FrancisUrquhart

    'Mortimer">I see Mrs Balls is has a season ticket for the US outrage bus as well as the British outrage bus...

    She is going to burst a blood vessel.'

    Maybe housing Syrian refugees is too stressful for her.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    This blonde American lady seems like she is about to cry.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,533
    edited November 2016
    The republican lady again is actually again speaking calmly and making sensible points despite not liking trump...lecturer lady just having a petulant teenage breakdown.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    The tricky one is the Trump 47% market, I had another attempt at calculating it and got about 46.96%, it's very close to be sure.
    Michigan will surely put Trump over the 47% mark. WTF are they doing there and NH? How many recounts do they need to make a choice?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,638

    Some of the libertarian Brexit outriders have been going on about CANZUK (i.e. that lot minus the US) for years. I don't suppose that it's impossible, but I'll believe it when I see it.
    Agreed. That's why I'm keen to bet on it!
    Particularly given the comment that it would "very soon appear".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    How do they manage to find a British audience full of people who can repeat Democratic talking points?
  • Watching the delightful Dr. Alice Roberts on BBC4 :)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    The republican lady again is actually again speaking calmly and making sensible points despite not liking trump...lecturer lady just having a petulant teenage breakdown.

    The more I see of pro-HRCites, the less surprised I am by this result.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Labour hold Wandsworth Queenstown
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,533
    edited November 2016
    Rabb is easily the best on here...trying to answer the question by adding some value rather than having a temper tantrum.
  • How do they manage to find a British audience full of people who can repeat Democratic talking points?

    How come you're a REMAINER yet an avid Trump fan?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    How do they manage to find a British audience full of people who can repeat Democratic talking points?

    It's the BBC.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Was Margaret Thatcher judged by "different standards" ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Rabb is easily the best on here...trying to answer the question by adding some value rather than having a temper tantrum.

    If Raab C Nesbitt is on, it might be worth tuning in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Best video on the left's attitude to Trump (and Brexit) yet
    https://www.facebook.com/JonathanPieReporter/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED&fref=nf
  • I seemed to remember they didn't half bang on about trumps hair and being a fatty fatty bum bum.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,638

    How do they manage to find a British audience full of people who can repeat Democratic talking points?

    How do you think the British electorate would have voted on Clinton vs. Trump?
    Probably 90% Clinton. Among those interested in politics I'd bump that up to 95%....
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    Yvette Cooper is no longer do-able. Shame.

    No wonder Balls is out dancing!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    Pulpstar said:

    Was Margaret Thatcher judged by "different standards" ?

    Or indeed our current Prime Minister.

    Tasmina is one of those people who I could never tire of disagreeing with. The vehemence with which she argues every point is downright hilarious.
  • Wandsworth - Queenstown

    Lab 1551
    Con 987
    Lib Dem 249
    Green 122

  • MikeK said:

    No wonder Balls is out dancing!
    Lets hope that is all he is doing!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    Was Margaret Thatcher judged by "different standards" ?

    Yes, remember the voice stuff.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    This woman is deranged.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    rkrkrk said:

    How do you think the British electorate would have voted on Clinton vs. Trump?
    Probably 90% Clinton. Among those interested in politics I'd bump that up to 95%....
    rkrkrk said:

    How do you think the British electorate would have voted on Clinton vs. Trump?
    Probably 90% Clinton. Among those interested in politics I'd bump that up to 95%....
    What is it about your nom de plume that erkerkerks me?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    nunu said:

    Yes, remember the voice stuff.
    She won though !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Alistair said:

    What could be changed about TPP to make out better for America?
    Trump is not going to do any trade deal with SouthEast Asia or Latin America
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Labour hold Wandsworth Queenstown

    Lab 1551 Con 987 LD 249 Green 122
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,533
    edited November 2016
    MaxPB said:

    This woman is deranged.

    At least you don't have to listen to her for hours a week...some poor sods are going to have to! She doesn't want to listen to anything.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    rcs1000 said:

    That is who TPP is with: Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. It opens up 99% of those markets for US firms, against only 85% in return. It enforces US trade standards on these countries. It requires these countries to keep intellectual property laws in lock step with the US. And it has enforcement through US ISDS tribunals.

    There will never be a more favourable trade deal for the US than the TPP. It's with friendly countries, who have strategic interests in common with the US.

    if TPP doesn't work for the US, why should a deal with the UK?
    TPP also includes Peru, Vietnam and Mexico, none of whom Trump will include in any free trade deal
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,638
    MikeK said:

    What is it about your nom de plume that erkerkerks me?
    Sorry!
  • rkrkrk said:

    How do you think the British electorate would have voted on Clinton vs. Trump?
    Probably 90% Clinton. Among those interested in politics I'd bump that up to 95%....
    Nowhere near that, maybe about 60 - 40 Clinton.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    houndtang said:

    Nowhere near that, maybe about 60 - 40 Clinton.
    So when Lord Farage sells us out as the 51st state, we might swing the electoral collage Math.
  • Yvette cooper just dug her own hole there...trying to make a petty point.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    houndtang said:

    Nowhere near that, maybe about 60 - 40 Clinton.
    I wouldn't rely on any opinion polls for that.

    The shy Trump vote here would be absolubtely massive.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    That is who TPP is with: Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. It opens up 99% of those markets for US firms, against only 85% in return. It enforces US trade standards on these countries. It requires these countries to keep intellectual property laws in lock step with the US. And it has enforcement through US ISDS tribunals.

    There will never be a more favourable trade deal for the US than the TPP. It's with friendly countries, who have strategic interests in common with the US.

    if TPP doesn't work for the US, why should a deal with the UK?
    Will we get offered a similar deal? forcing competitive tendering by US corporations, adjudicated by courts that we cannot control.

    Take back control, my arse!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Stupid woman.
  • Shut up about trumps hair...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    Jonathan said:

    So when Lord Farage sells us out as the 51st state, we might swing the electoral collage Math.

    Perhaps that could be Sturgeon's backup post-independence plan. Expand Trump Turnberry into Trumpland.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,638
    houndtang said:

    Nowhere near that, maybe about 60 - 40 Clinton.
    This poll suggested 49 - 12 apparently... with presumably a lot of undecideds...
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/06/tenth-of-britons-back-donald-trump-for-president-while-half-back-hillary-clinton
  • Jonathan said:

    So when Lord Farage sells us out as the 51st state, we might swing the electoral collage Math.
    75 seats in the House!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902/sandbox
  • Man, you watch the BBC (and indeed other media) these days and it's like being in a parallel universe.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414
    HYUFD said:

    TPP also includes Peru, Vietnam and Mexico, none of whom Trump will include in any free trade deal
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership
    Sure, but Mexico and the US already have a free trade agreement (NAFTA), and the TPP is subsidiary to that (that is, when there is conflict between the provisions, the NAFTA ones take precedence). And Peru and Vietnam account for well under one percent of US trade, and score almost zero on the MIT Trade Correlation Index. (I.e., they export almost nothing to each other that is domestically produced.)
  • Stupid stunt comes back to bite her own the arse....
  • Who let the taxi driver in?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Will we get offered a similar deal? forcing competitive tendering by US corporations, adjudicated by courts that we cannot control.

    Take back control, my arse!
    You are looking at TPP terms, which given Trump is ripping up that deal is rather pointless, the US is the largest destination for UK exports, of course we want a trade deal with them
  • rkrkrk said:

    This poll suggested 49 - 12 apparently... with presumably a lot of undecideds...
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/06/tenth-of-britons-back-donald-trump-for-president-while-half-back-hillary-clinton
    Shy Trumpers?
  • I know why I virtually never watch QT these days!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    She won though !
    So? Still judged by different standards. Also different system. Tho Clinton would have still lost if she was a man.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    edited November 2016
    houndtang said:

    Nowhere near that, maybe about 60 - 40 Clinton.
    Yougov poll said 59%-8% to Clinton. 67% though he would make a terrible president, 5% good or great. Clinton got 22% good/great, 42% average, 25% poor/terible

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vuun7hasza/Eurotrack_GB_USElection_Website.pdf
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414
    HYUFD said:

    You are looking at TPP terms, which given Trump is ripping up that deal is rather pointless, the US is the largest destination for UK exports, of course we want a trade deal with them
    Yes. But TPP is an amazing deal for the US with some of its closest allies. Why would the US say "TPP is not good enough for us, but hey Britain, have a deal that's worse for America"?
  • 75 seats in the House!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902/sandbox
    Nice!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    houndtang said:

    Shy Trumpers?
    However, in a reflection of both candidates’ underlying unpopularity, almost a third of respondents (32%) said they would not vote for either. <- TRUMP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited November 2016
    rkrkrk said:

    How do you think the British electorate would have voted on Clinton vs. Trump?
    Probably 90% Clinton. Among those interested in politics I'd bump that up to 95%....
    Hillary would have won the UK by as big a margin as she won New York state and Massachusetts ie winning around 60%+ at least. In London and Scotland she would have won around 90%+ ie the same margin she won DC. The only places Trump would likely have won would have been parts of Essex and maybe a few industrial towns like Hartlepool and Nuneaton and seaside towns like Great Yarmouth and Blackpool and some rural parts of Yorkshire
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Bloody hell she's deranged.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes. But TPP is an amazing deal for the US with some of its closest allies. Why would the US say "TPP is not good enough for us, but hey Britain, have a deal that's worse for America"?
    Why would anyone who isn't the US sign up to TPP? I didn't vote to get rid of one master on 23rd June, to get another.
  • Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705
  • rkrkrk said:

    Out of interest... what assumptions did you make?
    Did you assume late votes will be equal trump v. clinton split as those already gone?

    I'm trying to spreadsheet it at the moment using CNN figures but must be making a mistake as I can't make the totals add up...
    I assumed the stein and others were the same% but used the Clinton trump difference on remaining votea from the new York time site. Though theh don't seem to be updating it any more very often and others have more up to date totals
  • MaxPB said:

    Bloody hell she's deranged.

    Thank God only a few more minutes....
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Horsham Con hold

    Con 1046 LD 308 Lab 118 UKIP 109
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414
    Sean_F said:

    Why would anyone who isn't the US sign up to TPP? I didn't vote to get rid of one master on 23rd June, to get another.
    I don't disagree with that. My point is that the US does not do equal trade treaties. It enters into trade treaties where it controls standards and enforcement, and only then when the benefits are overwhelming. Any deal with the UK that was acceptable to Trump and Congress would not - I suspect - be acceptable to the British people.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

    Class.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:
    See the polls are right.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Thank God only a few more minutes....
    I think she didn't realise that none of use had a vote.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,533
    edited November 2016
    MaxPB said:

    I think she didn't realise that none of use had a vote.
    What is annoying with people like that is they don't want to listen to any view different from their own. Rabb was trying to be pragmatic, diplomatic and sensible and she just huffed and puffed like a child when he spoke.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't disagree with that. My point is that the US does not do equal trade treaties. It enters into trade treaties where it controls standards and enforcement, and only then when the benefits are overwhelming. Any deal with the UK that was acceptable to Trump and Congress would not - I suspect - be acceptable to the British people.
    The British people voted for Brexit, they knew they needed to do deals elsewhere, the US is the largest destination for UK exports
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes. But TPP is an amazing deal for the US with some of its closest allies. Why would the US say "TPP is not good enough for us, but hey Britain, have a deal that's worse for America"?
    No it isn't, it allows yet more cheap imports from and outsourcing to Mexico which was what Trump was raging against
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Sarah Palin is the obvious choice for Russian ambassador; she could work from home.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited November 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Bloody hell she's deranged.

    Which one ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    rcs1000 said:

    Sure, but Mexico and the US already have a free trade agreement (NAFTA), and the TPP is subsidiary to that (that is, when there is conflict between the provisions, the NAFTA ones take precedence). And Peru and Vietnam account for well under one percent of US trade, and score almost zero on the MIT Trade Correlation Index. (I.e., they export almost nothing to each other that is domestically produced.)
    Trump has also suggested ripping up NAFTA, so he is not going to do a similar deal instead
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Pulpstar said:

    Which one ?
    The blonde haired harpie.
  • Pulpstar said:

    However, in a reflection of both candidates’ underlying unpopularity, almost a third of respondents (32%) said they would not vote for either. <- TRUMP</p>
    yep makes sense
  • rcs1000 said:
    Hope he lumped on!
  • nunu said:

    See the polls are right.
    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day :lol:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    IanB2 said:

    Sarah Palin is the obvious choice for Russian ambassador; she could work from home.

    I wouldn't want the job of being her interpreter.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    What is annoying with people like that is they don't want to listen to any view different from their own. Rabb was trying to be pragmatic, diplomatic and sensible and she just huffed and puffed like a child when he spoke.
    As a member of the governing party Raab played a straight bat. Fair enough. The republican lady was reasonable I thought, lots of truth bombs that people just didn't want to listen to. On NATO her points were relevant, its time for Europe to pay up, Raab got applause for that so I'm glad the liberal audience were on board as well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    "Will Britain ever have a black Prime Minister"

    Why is this even a question ?

    Of course ! If someone is good enough, they'll win.
  • Alistair said:

    STEIN PREDICTION UPDATE!!!!!!

    Error in my spreadsheet. She is instead heading for 0.98%, I had accidentally projected Oregon's results with California high percentage of remaining votes to cast

    Chillax, Alistair. What will be will be. You can't change it, and it's too late to adjust your position, so there's no point spending any effort, let alone emotion, on figuring out whether it will be a winner or a loser.

    Fingers crossed, that's all!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,312
    Please let this not be a hoax

    Ron Perlman for POTUS 2020
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    MaxPB said:

    As a member of the governing party Raab played a straight bat. Fair enough. The republican lady was reasonable I thought, lots of truth bombs that people just didn't want to listen to. On NATO her points were relevant, its time for Europe to pay up, Raab got applause for that so I'm glad the liberal audience were on board as well.
    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton" - the Government here of course needs to do the same now.
  • viewcode said:

    Please let this not be a hoax

    Ron Perlman for POTUS 2020

    What the Hell-boy!!!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Conservatives gain Greenwich by around 60 votes
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    MaxPB said:

    As a member of the governing party Raab played a straight bat. Fair enough. The republican lady was reasonable I thought, lots of truth bombs that people just didn't want to listen to. On NATO her points were relevant, its time for Europe to pay up, Raab got applause for that so I'm glad the liberal audience were on board as well.
    It was from Southend. On Sea. In Essex. south Essex.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131

    Conservatives gain Greenwich by around 60 votes

    Oops, I was wrong.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    IanB2 said:

    Oops, I was wrong.
    Seems majority was 38
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    IanB2 said:

    It was from Southend. On Sea. In Essex. south Essex.
    Still a BBC audience.
  • MaxPB said:

    Still a BBC audience.
    Other than angry taxi driver, not a lot of Only Way Is Essex cast members...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,312

    What the Hell-boy!!!
    I swear to God if I was American I'd vote for him.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Just catching up with Question Time.

    Dear oh dear...
  • GIN1138 said:

    Just catching up with Question Time.

    Dear oh dear...

    Don't bother is my advice.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    GIN1138 said:

    Just catching up with Question Time.

    Dear oh dear...

    Don't bother mate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Chillax, Alistair. What will be will be. You can't change it, and it's too late to adjust your position, so there's no point spending any effort, let alone emotion, on figuring out whether it will be a winner or a loser.

    Fingers crossed, that's all!
    The bet was sound, winner or loser.
  • Seems majority was 38
    56.

    https://www.twitter.com/Royal_Greenwich/status/796868084569088001
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867



    Don't bother is my advice.

    MaxPB said:



    Don't bother mate.

    Have had to turn it off... That American lady ranting and raving was too much to cope with...

  • GIN1138 said:

    Have had to turn it off... That American lady ranting and raving was too much to cope with...

    She didn't get any better...
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    She didn't get any better...
    Looked like the only one to come out of that car crash was Dom Rabb.... Wonder when Theresa will allow him back into her governments bosom?
This discussion has been closed.