politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Tru

weejonnie said:

RobD said:

peter_from_putney said:

America turns right - good news for the Tories but great news for Britain - let's hear no more Obamaspeak of our being placed at the back of the queue in terms of negotiating trade deals, etc.
Three cheers for the Special Relationship, which hasn't been very special over recent years.

Will he be invited here soon I wonder.

Haven't you heard - the UK will be at the back of the queue.

Has NH finished yet? on NYT the gap is 127 votes - not that it matters any more - except for spread betters.

Where is left in New Hampshire ?

I have £60 riding on this.

I guess one of the most important things here is that there were other elections.

As such the Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives (just) and also control of the Senate.

With a Republican president....

GIN1138 said:

It looks as though Jack's ARSE took one hell of a pounding!

Not half as bad as the schlonging Hillary got.

president trump = pent murder spit.

That is all.

Trumps stance on NATO will be both interesting and worrying. He's surely going to have to rein back on his previous stance on NATO?

Gardenwalker said:

rcs1000 said:

Gardenwalker said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

That was pre-Trump.

Le Pen may not be favourite, but Trump (and to a much lesser extent Brexit) legitimises a vote for her.

With a gun to my head, I do not think she will win. But it must now be considered distinctly possible.

Everyone talks about spillover, but in the Spanish elections post Brexit there was a swing to the status quo.

Because of the sight of the pound collapsing.

And because, in a very pro-European country like Spain, the connection between Brexit and whatever the Spanish equiv of WWC is not there.

But you can see a direct line between - philosophically - between Trump and Le Pen.

Sure. Nevertheless the Trump-Juppe gap in 40%.

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

JennyFreeman said:

Monksfield said:

JennyFreeman said:

jonny83 said:

Well the world just became a more dangerous place

Really? You don't think unfettered immigration and playing soft on hard line Islam hasn't made the world an extremely dangerous place? That's one of the reasons 'we' voted Brexit and Trump.

Interfering in other folks affairs in the middle east created hardline islam. Own it.

I agree. That prick Tony Blair and other liberal metropolitan elites who opened Pandora's box and then flung wide the doors of the western world.

The people have spoken. And we've had enough.

Don't forget those liberal metropolitan pricks GWB & IDS.

GWB, IDS and Blair created hardline Islam did they?

IDS became Leader of the Tory Party on 13 September 2011 - two days after the attack that destroyed the Twin Towers.

GWB became POTUS in 2011 long after the rise of Al'Qaeda even if before 9/11.

Al'Qaeda existed well before even Blair came to power too.

I didn't think I was being that subtle, but hey ho..

Well, what a night. I hope that fellow PBers either won a lot or did not lose too much. I managed to win £10K+ net on tonight so it has paid for a few nice holidays But I could not have done that without the insight that was provided by a fair few number on here. Brokenwheel, in particular, was superb on Florida (I tried to do a similar ongoing commentary on why I thought C was Republican but could not keep up) but many others had some very good tips.

A special thumbs up to Plato as well - you are vindicated and deserve to bask in the glory

I think this election showed the best and worst of this site: the best in that the often accurate and very quick analysis of what was going on and their implications meant there was money to be made before the betting sites woke up to what was happening; the worst, though, in that, in the run up to the election, there were so many on here who not only just did not want to accept any alternative view to the "HRC will win" line but who abused those who put these arguments forward.

Point said and now off to bed.

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Has Clinton still not said anything?

Nope, she did concede to Trump over the phone, but nothing public.

I find that astonishing.

The Clinton camp must be utterly gutted. I would be totally shell-shocked.

She's been semi-absent for most of the campaign to be honest.

She never visited WI once!

https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/796281936750714880

I think what is increasingly becoming clear is that people detest the vast assortment of hangers-on in politics just as much, if not more so, than the politicians themselves.

The talking-heads, the pollsters, the newspaper columnists, the supposedly independent experts. Michael Gove received a lot of flak for his 'we've heard enough from experts' statements. But it has mainly come from the self-appointed experts themselves. He hit a nerve.

If there is a consensus by the hangers on - who are loathed - then people will have more of a propensity to choose the exact opposite. No-one likes their destiny taken out of their own hands. If you are told something is a dead cert before the event has happened and yet you have a tiny chance of changing that event - would a part of you not want to act to change it?

In that respect, Trump winning is a feedback loop against all those who despise him.

rcs1000 said:

Gardenwalker said:

rcs1000 said:

Gardenwalker said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

That was pre-Trump.

Le Pen may not be favourite, but Trump (and to a much lesser extent Brexit) legitimises a vote for her.

With a gun to my head, I do not think she will win. But it must now be considered distinctly possible.

Everyone talks about spillover, but in the Spanish elections post Brexit there was a swing to the status quo.

Because of the sight of the pound collapsing.

And because, in a very pro-European country like Spain, the connection between Brexit and whatever the Spanish equiv of WWC is not there.

But you can see a direct line between - philosophically - between Trump and Le Pen.

Sure. Nevertheless the Trump-Juppe gap in 40%.

I wish I had your confidence.

One thing I can be sure of though is Le Pen ramping on here in due course.

peter_from_putney said:

Much doom and gloom on BBC news this morning - the entire mood is very downbeat ..... incredible!

No joke, but the news headlines on R4 at about 5:30 or so was so slow and sombre sounding you would think that the Queen had died.

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Has Clinton still not said anything?

Nope, she did concede to Trump over the phone, but nothing public.

I find that astonishing.

The Clinton camp must be utterly gutted. I would be totally shell-shocked.

She's been semi-absent for most of the campaign to be honest.

You do have to wonder, this election has been lost in three key states by about just 1%. Could a more vigorous campaign have made the difference?

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

Clinton still trails in the popular vote and in the second round are that many working class and socialist voters going to vote for Juppe?

Mr. 1000, cheers.

Mr. Putney, karma after popping the champagne corks for Blair in 1997.

Media as well as politicians need to realise things are changing. Mass migration, globalisation, cultural/national identity are major issues and broadcast media can't lead opinion (if it did, years of entirely sympathetic migrant coverage would've changed the public's mind).

It's taken a while, but pointing at someone and shouting "Racist!" isn't enough to close down a debate.

The_Apocalypse said:

JosiasJessop said:

The_Apocalypse said:

rottenborough said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Razedabode said:

glw said:

MAGA

F***ing hell!

Looks like Plato had a point after all, a few apologies and a lot less abuse from all sides would be sensible.

Probably ought to start pondering Corbyn a bit more seriously, I mean the polls are bad for him, but pollsters are not exactly doing a great job right now.

Pundits, pollsters, forecasters, journalists, talking heads, think tank wonks, and all the other know-it-alls who fill the airwaves and newspapers should reflect on their job sand whether another line of employment might better serve them.

Will 619 do an IOS?

Politics is shifting rightwards. Pretty certain Corbyns actually numbers will be as poor as they look.

Well, it looks like it's shifting towards extremes, really. Greece's government is pretty much of the hard left.

Paul Mason's masterplan is to rouse the same hunger for change but direct it at a Left-Syriza style movement/party.

Paul Mason is absolutely nuts. I really didn't have any inclining as to just how hard-left he was until he left Newsnight. I now no longer believe that a Corbyn victory is impossible. It's clear that polls are worth sweet fa, and that from here on now they should no longer be given an ounce of credibility.

Read one of my posts earlier in this thread.

If I were a gambler, I'd put money on Labour leading in the polls next year (if the odds were good enough!), and I certainly think it's possible for them to win in 2020.

On the other hand, if May successfully negotiates the hurricanes swirling around her and leaves the country in a more prosperous and settled state, then she'll have been a better PM than even Thatcher. Early signs are distinctly mixed.

There are also opportunities for the Lib Dems, if Farron can grasp them. And that's sadly a big conditional.

Farron is god damn terrible. The LDs are in desperate need of a semi-decent leader.

Clegg!

stodge said:

PlatoSaid said:

As others have said, it's beyond perplexing that Establishment clever dicks over the pond apparently learned nothing from Brexit.

And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

Yet Trump's economic policy, such as it is, which is trickledown on steroids, isn't going to improve the lot of the working, lower middle and middle classes who (and I quite agree with you) have been left behind by economic, social, cultural and political developments in the past 20-30 years any more than there is a coherent argument that Brexit will improve things for the same groups over here.

I get the anger, the frustration and the disillusionment and the desire for "change", I get all of that but it's nothing more than an unfocussed anger. Both May and Trump can talk the talk about speaking for the working classes and wanting to unify the country and all that but in truth they have no solutions and no ideas whatsoever and once that bankruptcy becomes evident, what then ?

You can't run countries or sophisticated economies simply on the basis of being angry or blaming some "liberal metropolitan elite" (whatever than means). I've heard nothing meaningful that will genuinely and permanently improve the economic fortunes of the WWC or even the "squeezed middle".

Agreed. And it's only half of the country that think that. Generally the less successful half imposing their lack of solutions on everyone. So you end up with a Berlusconi style stagnation.

LucyJones said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

Why is everyone saying Clinton won the popular vote? The BBC give it to Trump, as does AP.
Hillary: 57 708 523 votes
Donald: 58 173 271 votes

Because there are still votes to count in CA. Lots of them.

Sam Wang
@SamWangPhD

I agree w/@NateSilver538 that there was high uncertainty, much more than I assumed. Median polling error 4% Presidential, 6% Senate so far.

I think this ^ was posted upthread, but it's worth a repost.

Fair play to Sam.

AndyJS said:

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

stodge said:

another_richard said:

Why is Minnesota so Democratic compared with the rest of Mid-West ?

The only answer I have is a large number of Scandinavian migrants settled there - climate akin to Sweden or Finland apparently.

That makes sense.

The IN-OH-PA belt took a lot of German settlers.

Yes, I believe at one point German stood some chance of becoming the language of the US?

Wisconsin was settled by mainly German immigrants, Minnesota by Scandinavians.

There are odd pockets of Germania in Texas as well.

Pong said:

Sam Wang
@SamWangPhD

I agree w/@NateSilver538 that there was high uncertainty, much more than I assumed. Median polling error 4% Presidential, 6% Senate so far.

I think this ^ was posted upthread, but it's worth a repost.

Fair play to Sam.

Anyone who doesn't think Nate Silver had a vindication from the primaries doesn't understand modelling or statistics.

LucyJones said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

Why is everyone saying Clinton won the popular vote? The BBC give it to Trump, as does AP.
Hillary: 57 708 523 votes
Donald: 58 173 271 votes

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125828948

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president

Theuniondivvie said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

JennyFreeman said:

Monksfield said:

JennyFreeman said:

jonny83 said:

Well the world just became a more dangerous place

Really? You don't think unfettered immigration and playing soft on hard line Islam hasn't made the world an extremely dangerous place? That's one of the reasons 'we' voted Brexit and Trump.

Interfering in other folks affairs in the middle east created hardline islam. Own it.

I agree. That prick Tony Blair and other liberal metropolitan elites who opened Pandora's box and then flung wide the doors of the western world.

The people have spoken. And we've had enough.

Don't forget those liberal metropolitan pricks GWB & IDS.

GWB, IDS and Blair created hardline Islam did they?

IDS became Leader of the Tory Party on 13 September 2011 - two days after the attack that destroyed the Twin Towers.

GWB became POTUS in 2011 long after the rise of Al'Qaeda even if before 9/11.

Al'Qaeda existed well before even Blair came to power too.

I didn't think I was being that subtle, but hey ho..

I get that you don't believe GWB and IDS to be liberal metropolitan pricks (maybe you do think pricks) but the implication was there that they were responsible for creating hardline Islam. When one of them only came to office post-9/11 that is very bizarre.

If you were being sarcastic, the comment still stands to those before you in the quote chain like jonny83 etc that seem to be serious.

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

Clinton still trails in the popular vote and in the second round are that many working class and socialist voters going to vote for Juppe?

And Juppe is Mr Establishment and has had the odd scandal of his own in the past.

Juppe faced criminal charges I believe for financial dealings, as you say he is the epitome of the establishment and while intelligent like Hillary he lacks charisma, Le Pen like Trump has charisma

RobD said:

LucyJones said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

Why is everyone saying Clinton won the popular vote? The BBC give it to Trump, as does AP.
Hillary: 57 708 523 votes
Donald: 58 173 271 votes

Because there are still votes to count in CA. Lots of them.

I've told myself to stop being such a wuss and have piled on this.

I didn't entirely believe RCS's conviction that it was over, I was more inclined to accept Frank Luntz's judgement that Hillary would win but it was when one of Trump's own people said they needed a miracle that I felt I could safely go to bed. I have woken up in a slight state of shock.

@GuardianHeather: Theresa May: “I would like to congratulate Donald Trump on being elected the next President of the US, following a hard-fought campaign."

BBC now reporting that Trump won the popular vote as well....

Flip, Stein up to 0.94%. Sad

Dromedary said:

malcolmg said:

Dromedary said:

OK Malcolm if you are still here. I have made the screenshot. I placed several bets over a period of time - it wasn't just one. So I've put three screenshots together, and have blanked out reference numbers. I also had the Cruz/Rubio/Bush/Kaine/Pence/Kasich/Ryan options covered, all at very low prices, so lost those. The absolute best result for me would have been a Pence win. If I recall correctly, the average price I got on Trump was 3.34. Is there a way to send another member here an image?

you can send me a PM and I will be happy to apologise and congratulate you heartily.

OK I've opened up the messaging function, which I've never used before. Can I include an image, or do I have to post it online and include a link?

I don't think you can attach in that messaging - you have to use links.

But you could exchange emails first and then send that way.

foxinsoxuk said:

stodge said:

PlatoSaid said:

As others have said, it's beyond perplexing that Establishment clever dicks over the pond apparently learned nothing from Brexit.

And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

Yet Trump's economic policy, such as it is, which is trickledown on steroids, isn't going to improve the lot of the working, lower middle and middle classes who (and I quite agree with you) have been left behind by economic, social, cultural and political developments in the past 20-30 years any more than there is a coherent argument that Brexit will improve things for the same groups over here.

I get the anger, the frustration and the disillusionment and the desire for "change", I get all of that but it's nothing more than an unfocussed anger. Both May and Trump can talk the talk about speaking for the working classes and wanting to unify the country and all that but in truth they have no solutions and no ideas whatsoever and once that bankruptcy becomes evident, what then ?

You can't run countries or sophisticated economies simply on the basis of being angry or blaming some "liberal metropolitan elite" (whatever than means). I've heard nothing meaningful that will genuinely and permanently improve the economic fortunes of the WWC or even the "squeezed middle".

I agree with all that, May and Trump will be wolves in sheeps clothing for the WWC. Lots of flagwaving, but high paid factory jobs are not returning. There will be some hightech, automated factories, but steel and similar? No chance.

The right won't deliver for the working class, of course it won't. But in the UK, at least, it doesn't have to. All May needs is 37% of the vote. If she looks after pensioners and homeowners, she's home and dry - and that's before you factor in Corbyn.

Moses_ said:

BBC now reporting that Trump won the popular vote as well....

Tosh

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jeremycliffe/status/796284333807923200

Really? Has May opined on Trump before?

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

JosiasJessop said:

The_Apocalypse said:

rottenborough said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Razedabode said:

glw said:

MAGA

F***ing hell!

Looks like Plato had a point after all, a few apologies and a lot less abuse from all sides would be sensible.

Probably ought to start pondering Corbyn a bit more seriously, I mean the polls are bad for him, but pollsters are not exactly doing a great job right now.

Pundits, pollsters, forecasters, journalists, talking heads, think tank wonks, and all the other know-it-alls who fill the airwaves and newspapers should reflect on their job sand whether another line of employment might better serve them.

Will 619 do an IOS?

Politics is shifting rightwards. Pretty certain Corbyns actually numbers will be as poor as they look.

Well, it looks like it's shifting towards extremes, really. Greece's government is pretty much of the hard left.

Paul Mason's masterplan is to rouse the same hunger for change but direct it at a Left-Syriza style movement/party.

Paul Mason is absolutely nuts. I really didn't have any inclining as to just how hard-left he was until he left Newsnight. I now no longer believe that a Corbyn victory is impossible. It's clear that polls are worth sweet fa, and that from here on now they should no longer be given an ounce of credibility.

Read one of my posts earlier in this thread.

If I were a gambler, I'd put money on Labour leading in the polls next year (if the odds were good enough!), and I certainly think it's possible for them to win in 2020.

On the other hand, if May successfully negotiates the hurricanes swirling around her and leaves the country in a more prosperous and settled state, then she'll have been a better PM than even Thatcher. Early signs are distinctly mixed.

There are also opportunities for the Lib Dems, if Farron can grasp them. And that's sadly a big conditional.

Farron is god damn terrible. The LDs are in desperate need of a semi-decent leader.

Clegg!

He's way too tarnished.

FrankBooth said:

I didn't entirely believe RCS's conviction that it was over, I was more inclined to accept Frank Luntz's judgement that Hillary would win but it was when one of Trump's own people said they needed a miracle that I felt I could safely go to bed. I have woken up in a slight state of shock.

Had a gut feeling yesterday when Betfair shot out to a Clinton win that we could be facing deja vu all over again. So it has happened, still shocking.

Moses_ said:

BBC now reporting that Trump won the popular vote as well....

Far too early to say that.

Pulpstar said:

Moses_ said:

BBC now reporting that Trump won the popular vote as well....

Tosh

He has at the moment - but a few million Californians will probably change that - nyt forecasts Clinton 1 - 1.5 ahead.

Trump's vote has been incredibly efficient, Labouresque while Clinton's was Toryesque.

Anybody got the Betfair graphs from last night and Brexit night to see how they compared?

I bet they look very similar.

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

GideonWise said:

I think what is increasingly becoming clear is that people detest the vast assortment of hangers-on in politics just as much, if not more so, than the politicians themselves.

The talking-heads, the pollsters, the newspaper columnists, the supposedly independent experts. Michael Gove received a lot of flak for his 'we've heard enough from experts' statements. But it has mainly come from the self-appointed experts themselves. He hit a nerve.

If there is a consensus by the hangers on - who are loathed - then people will have more of a propensity to choose the exact opposite. No-one likes their destiny taken out of their own hands. If you are told something is a dead cert before the event has happened and yet you have a tiny chance of changing that event - would a part of you not want to act to change it?

In that respect, Trump winning is a feedback loop against all those who despise him.

I think white people in America were sick of being told they were about to become a minority in 20 years time, even if it were true. It's a bit like constantly telling a middle-aged person that in a few years time they'll have varicose veins and might not be able to walk without a stick. Probably true, but you don't want your nose rubbed in it all the time.

(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account ‏@DPJHodges 46m46 minutes ago
Hillary lost white women without a degree by more than 20 points.

That's the problem while Hillary types raise their eyes towards the glass ceilings in fancy atriums, they forget the poor drudges who are cleaning the marble floors for minimum wage.

AndyJS said:

Moses_ said:

BBC now reporting that Trump won the popular vote as well....

Far too early to say that.

Over half of LA county now in and all of San Francisco and Trump still has a clear popular vote lead

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jeremycliffe/status/796284333807923200

https://twitter.com/RonMooreMoreRon/status/796273801134796801

Pulpstar said:

Noooo Trump takes the lead in New Hampshire.

NY Times still have that as 57% chance for Clinton.

So a microcosm of the election for me was I predicted Nevada going to Clinton 48 to 44. In the end it was 48% - 45.5%. Those extra points proving crucial in other states.

I think CLINTON will win Michigan.

brokenwheel said:

GIN1138 said:

Has Frank Luntz explained himself yet?


https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796136199706574848

Were you on here last night? Everyone was going mental saying Hillary had won early on not realising the early vote, counted first, was always going to produce her best results and it would be downhill from there.

Combined with useless exits you can see why ppl were confident early on.

Yep, have been "on and off" all night.

https://twitter.com/martinbelam/status/796285951710556161

Breaking news BBC

Republican control of Senate confirmed

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

Clinton still trails in the popular vote and in the second round are that many working class and socialist voters going to vote for Juppe?

Yes

"I spent almost two years working for Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight, where I hoped to learn the secrets of political forecasting. I walked away totally disillusioned. It sometimes seemed as though their interpretation of the math wasn’t free from subjective bias. There was also a certain arrogance that comes from being part of an elite that “gets the numbers”, and an entrenched hierarchy meant that predictions weren’t properly scrutinized."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/09/polls-wrong-donald-trump-election