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One thing that jumps out at me from the Votecastr maps is that they project HRC winning Jacksonville (Duval county) by 3%. IMO if she wins Jacksonville, she wins the election.0
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Trump hovering at 5 on Betfair - actual votes in Kentucky/ Indiana better than Romney - Indiana I can understand. Kentucky call Trump +27 is 4.3 better than Romney.0
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That's my plan.TheScreamingEagles said:
Watch CNN, really informative tonightRobD said:Must. Get. To. Telly.
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Yebbut, where?HYUFD said:
If Florida goes Trump, then there's huge value on the markets, but the Clinton camp is confident of victory (according to CNN)0 -
Florida
trump50.4%589,250
clinton47.1%550,524
johnson1.8%20,926
stein0.5%5,853
full details
voting, est. 12% in0 -
The counties reporting are all in the boonies.Casino_Royale said:
Yebbut, where?HYUFD said:
If Florida goes Trump, then there's huge value on the markets, but the Clinton camp is confident of victory (according to CNN)
Miami, Orlando etc report later.0 -
Herenunu said:
where is the exit poll? I was watching cnn and cant see it.MikeL said:Georgia CNN Exit looks very, very good for Clinton.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/georgia/president
They make you do your own math (as they say....)
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Interesting package on 538 explaining that the typical Trump supporter is better paid but less well educated than the American average. They are in effect workers in unionised industries who are seeing their jobs and status disappearing.0
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Mixed picture, Trump doing better in some areas, Hillary in others.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I like C-SPAN coverage, they couldn't be arsed starting until 8PM ET.
This is eminently sensible, its like they all had to have their tea first.0 -
Trump as long as 3.5 now to win FL...0
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Where's that BBC Latino exit poll from? 27 points for Trump is pretty decent, might not be over in that case.0
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Georgia going Trump
Virginia: Tie0 -
Only 12% counted in Florida but Clinton closing the gap.0
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That's data from earlier. I believe official exit polling.MaxPB said:Where's that BBC Latino exit poll from? 27 points for Trump is pretty decent, might not be over in that case.
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Can't remember but is bona fide. Would be a small Clinton lead nationally.MaxPB said:Where's that BBC Latino exit poll from? 27 points for Trump is pretty decent, might not be over in that case.
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trivia: Georgia has the second highest number of counties of any state, second only to Texas.HYUFD said:
Georgia 1% inJobabob said:
How do I see the headline numbers (rather than broken down by sex, age, ethnicity etc etc)?HYUFD said:
No, Trump has won Georgia according to the exit poll, although it is tight. A few polls had Clinton actually winning Georgiarcs1000 said:
SC too EARLY to call, Trump leading.Andrew said:
Georgia not surprising, was only Trump+4, but SC was Trump+7....Casino_Royale said:Hmm.. If Georgia and South Carolina are close, I don't think Trump will make it.
SC, Trump.
Looks like Georgia is going for Clinton based on the demographics.
It's over guys. Clinton won, 330-350 EVs.
Trump 75%
Clinton 22%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/georgia
I have no idea how useful this is!0 -
Democrats seem increasingly confident about Florida.0
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Hillary now within 5pts in FL with NO votes yet in from Miami and Orlando.....0
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Seriously, what is the point of pasting these figures based on 1% of the votes? It's essentially random.HYUFD said:Virginia 1% in
Trump 52%
Clinton 43%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia0 -
Swing in both those states is 2% to GOP. Not very impressive.HYUFD said:
No she is not, as posted in Indiana and Kentucky she is underperforming Obamarcs1000 said:
Clinton is outperforming Obama. It's over.HYUFD said:
No, Trump has won Georgia according to the exit poll, although it is tight. A few polls had Clinton actually winning Georgiarcs1000 said:
SC too EARLY to call, Trump leading.Andrew said:
Georgia not surprising, was only Trump+4, but SC was Trump+7....Casino_Royale said:Hmm.. If Georgia and South Carolina are close, I don't think Trump will make it.
SC, Trump.
Looks like Georgia is going for Clinton based on the demographics.
It's over guys. Clinton won, 330-350 EVs.0 -
If you got Trump at 8, selling at 5 might not be a bad deal.0
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In other news, Johnson and Stein seem to have been squeezed into oblivion...0
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Clinton moving *out* on Betfair to 1.24
I presume this is people who simply don't understand what CNN/Fox are telling them about the early results..0 -
Trump doing better in the early vote in the Western side of Florida so far (Naples, Tampa), doing worse in West Palm Beach.0
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Kentucky 20% in
Trump 64%
Clinton 31%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/kentucky
Indiana 15% in
Trump 63%
Clinton 33%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/indiana0 -
CNN: Senior Trump adviser - It will take a miracle for us to win0
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NYT live calculator going for Clinton +4% nationally, winning Florida by +1.6, NC by +1.8, but losing Ohio by 0.3:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
Makes for 323-215 in the EC, although Ohio might flip.0 -
clinton49.1%1,035,402
trump48.2%1,017,255
johnson1.9%40,562
stein0.6%11,722
full details
voting, est. 23%0 -
Ooh, "senior Trump adviser" conceding defeat.0
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Increasingly clear Comey's intervention was about senate and scotus0
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CNN - Trump advisor basically conceding...will now take a miracle.0
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YupTheWhiteRabbit said:If you got Trump at 8, selling at 5 might not be a bad deal.
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Because:SouthamObserver said:Democrats seem increasingly confident about Florida.
"In the initial returns from the Jacksonville area, Marco Rubio in the Senate race is running 8 points ahead of where Trump is running in the presidential race. "
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
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HUFUD...I don't want to be rude, but giving out those extremely early counts is not helpfulHYUFD said:Virginia 1% in
Trump 52%
Clinton 43%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia
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Looks like the Trump campaign is conceding privately.0
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"It will take a miracle for us to win"FrancisUrquhart said:CNN - Trump advisor basically conceding...
Game over.
All credit to @RCS1000 if so – first to call Brexit. First to call this.0 -
There is very easy money to be made boys and girls.Casino_Royale said:Clinton moving *out* on Betfair to 1.24
I presume this is people who simply don't understand what CNN/Fox are telling them about the early results..0 -
Good for Clinton if so, both were supposedly taking more from Clinton than Trump. Bernie Bro types came back to her at the last minute.Danny565 said:In other news, Johnson and Stein seem to have been squeezed into oblivion...
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Just a reminder Farage also conceded on June 230
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clinton49.6%1,385,769
trump47.7%1,332,025
johnson1.9%53,610
stein0.5%15,341
full details
voting, est. 30% in0 -
Dewey wins !0
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I see a pattern emerging, Trump doing worse than Romney in the cities, doing better than Romney in rural areas and small towns.
The Miami-Dade early vote is actually not bad for Trump, same as Romney which means he didn't lose the cuban vote.0 -
Florida 30% in, Clinton 52,000 votes ahead.0
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For anyone who knows there political geography the Guardian live results section allows you to home in on a state, see the current result and, more importantly, which counties have reported. Anyone getting excited about the Trump vote in Florida needs to have a look a which counties have voted.0
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CNN Clinton in the lead in Florida!0
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Hillary LEADS in FL.
Gonna be a short night.0 -
1% of the population of 318 million ish is a viable statistical sample.not_on_fire said:
Seriously, what is the point of pasting these figures based on 1% of the votes? It's essentially random.HYUFD said:Virginia 1% in
Trump 52%
Clinton 43%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia
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Exit poll in Virginia puts Democrats 7.7% ahead. Can't be long before it's called for them.0
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This is done. Hillary up in FL.0
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Via 538
I’m looking at returns from two major counties in Florida: Duval and Palm Beach. In the early vote, Clinton is doing better than the amount that Obama won by overall in those counties in 2012. In Palm Beach, she’s running 7 percentage points ahead. If that holds, it’s going to be a very long night for Trump.0 -
Dem areas coming in though....Saltire said:Florida with 30% in
Clinton 49.6
Trump 47.7
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida0 -
Am guessing that is what luntz and co got wind of.Jobabob said:Hillary LEADS in FL.
Gonna be a short night.0 -
Florida still has very few votes in from Miami-Dade, which is good news for Clinton if she's already ahead without it.0
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Or rather, it's not random, that's the problem.not_on_fire said:
Seriously, what is the point of pasting these figures based on 1% of the votes? It's essentially random.HYUFD said:Virginia 1% in
Trump 52%
Clinton 43%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia0 -
and i think it worked.Monksfield said:Increasingly clear Comey's intervention was about senate and scotus
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These maps on CNN are brilliant0
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No chance. FL is surely going DEM.Mortimer said:My current feeling:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/O3bWA0 -
Yeap Trump is doing better than Romney in Tampa.0
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Looks like they have voted for the candidate who might start WWIII by accident, not the one who might do so on purpose.0
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Surely the longer the night, the more competitive he is??Saltire said:Via 538
I’m looking at returns from two major counties in Florida: Duval and Palm Beach. In the early vote, Clinton is doing better than the amount that Obama won by overall in those counties in 2012. In Palm Beach, she’s running 7 percentage points ahead. If that holds, it’s going to be a very long night for Trump.0 -
They are actual results, take them or leave themtyson said:
HUFUD...I don't want to be rude, but giving out those extremely early counts is not helpfulHYUFD said:Virginia 1% in
Trump 52%
Clinton 43%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia0 -
538:
I’m looking at returns from two major counties in Florida: Duval and Palm Beach. In the early vote, Clinton is doing better than the amount that Obama won by overall in those counties in 2012. In Palm Beach, she’s running 7 percentage points ahead. If that holds, it’s going to be a very long night for Trump.
[Don't quite follow the last bit!]0 -
clinton49.4%1,658,543
trump47.8%1,602,508
johnson2.0%66,252
stein0.6%19,199
full details
voting, est. 36% i0 -
Can't be long until Fl is called for Clinton, three massive counties yet to come in for Clinton.0
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Is he a certain N. Farage?TheScreamingEagles said:CNN: Senior Trump adviser - It will take a miracle for us to win
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Zero in from Broward0
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Pinellis county going Clinton with 16% in.0
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West Virginia projected for Trump0
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Just in time for 7:30
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I think so. All credit to him for the early call if so.FrancisUrquhart said:
Am guessing that is what luntz and co got wind of.Jobabob said:Hillary LEADS in FL.
Gonna be a short night.0 -
NYT live predict says Clinton Florida+0.9, Ohio Trump+0.2. Talk about close.0
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Why do the polls close so early in the US?0
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Ohio and North Carolina too close to call0
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North Carolina too early to call
Ohio too early
West Virginia called trump0 -
But a point or two or more than some models. See: http://benchmark.shareblue.com/florida/MarqueeMark said:
Dem areas coming in though....Saltire said:Florida with 30% in
Clinton 49.6
Trump 47.7
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida0 -
I am getting "key race alert" fatigue....0
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North Carolina Too EARLY To Call, Ohio TCTC0
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CNN poll, NC edging Clinton, Ohio basically tied.0
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Trump is doing worse in Orlando and West Palm beach, doing as well as Romney in Miami-Dade, doing better than Romney in the Tampa-Naples area.bigjohnowls said:clinton49.4%1,658,543
trump47.8%1,602,508
johnson2.0%66,252
stein0.6%19,199
full details
voting, est. 36% i
All that is of course early vote, not the votes cast today.
Trump has a chance in Florida.0 -
Trump leapfrogged Clinton, ahead by 30,000 with 43% in.0
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This could be a long night ...0
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trump48.9%1,958,093
clinton48.2%1,928,885
johnson2.0%80,840
stein0.6%23,378
full details
voting, est. 43% i0 -
It's not the size that's important.NoEasyDay said:
1% of the population of 318 million ish is a viable statistical sample.not_on_fire said:
Seriously, what is the point of pasting these figures based on 1% of the votes? It's essentially random.HYUFD said:Virginia 1% in
Trump 52%
Clinton 43%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia0 -
Surprised SC not called yet, must be closer than expected0
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Doesn't look like any news from the panhandle yet. I'm not sure if the polls have closed there.Speedy said:
Trump is doing worse in Orlando and West Palm beach, doing as well as Romney in Miami-Dade, doing better than Romney in the Tampa-Naples area.bigjohnowls said:clinton49.4%1,658,543
trump47.8%1,602,508
johnson2.0%66,252
stein0.6%19,199
full details
voting, est. 36% i
All that is of course early vote, not the votes cast today.
Trump has a chance in Florida.0 -
CNN's little slip 'Drump' seems strangely appropriate0
This discussion has been closed.