If Britain doesn't compromise on freedom of movement, any idea of staying in the single market looks fanciful to me. Far too many politicians across the EU would have to eat their words to make that a runner.
''I go back to my original prediction. It will be an enormous plateful of EU fudge. Vague and obscure enough for May to claim she's delivered on Brexit, and worded that way, yet explicit enough on British compromises for the EU to say the UK has suffered for leaving, the Four Freedoms are intact.''
I thought that initially but now I'm much sure. May is talking much tougher than I thought and seems to realise anything less than full and sovereign control of immigration will not do.
We'll start with that, and then see what we can get on trade and financial passporting. It may not be much.
FWIW, I think we'll end up remaining in the EEA and continuing to trade and travel relatively freely with the EU, even if we're not perhaps in EFTA.
I think it will be tortuously difficult to get there, in a speedy and efficient manner, and I fear we'll end up still paying out billions to Brussels, and under the control of Eurocrats whilst not having any influence at all.
My first post in some time. For happy reasons - pleased to say i became a daddy for the first time 5 weeks ago, so PB has quite naturally fallen down the list of priorities!
Very many Congratulations on parenthood - hope that all is going well for baby and mother.
Indeed: many congratulations to Bob. Hope all is well.
If Britain doesn't compromise on freedom of movement, any idea of staying in the single market looks fanciful to me. Far too many politicians across the EU would have to eat their words to make that a runner.
Isn't eating their words and getting a last minute fudge precisely what the EU does best?
Goodness gracious, the number of people on here who drink gin. Astonishing. Not for nothing is it known as "mothers' ruin" and if that were not signal enough it is also the favoured spirit of RN officers. Repent ye all, and turn to whisky or even whiskey.
Thank goodness I say that we didn't have BMA limits in the period 1939-45
No wonder they are so stretched for resources and reliant on doctors from other countries.
That reminds me of something that's really annoyed me recently. I was trying to do a little medical research, and despite there being some very good websites, the best pointed to papers that were behind paywalls.
Does anyone know how a mere pleb can gain access to papers, preferably from the comfort o my own home?
The Royal Society of Medicine has an excellent online service, very exhaustive. I don't think that non-docs can join though.
@bbclaurak: 3 different ministers have said privately this week that we might stay in the single market after Brexit, whatever has been said....
Translation: We still have no fucking clue...
Or, they genuinely think the EU will compromise on Free Movement. Which is quite possible. Both sides are groping in the dark to a workable solution, and both sides will WANT to compromise. See Sarko's speech last week. That didn't come from nowhere.
The compromise would be to have free movement (for residence as opposed to holidays and business travel purposes) of LABOUR not people per se. I always thought that was what the fundamental freedom of movement was supposed to be about anyway....
Goodness gracious, the number of people on here who drink gin. Astonishing. Not for nothing is it known as "mothers' ruin" and if that were not signal enough it is also the favoured spirit of RN officers. Repent ye all, and turn to whisky or even whiskey.
Thank goodness I say that we didn't have BMA limits in the period 1939-45
No wonder they are so stretched for resources and reliant on doctors from other countries.
That reminds me of something that's really annoyed me recently. I was trying to do a little medical research, and despite there being some very good websites, the best pointed to papers that were behind paywalls.
Does anyone know how a mere pleb can gain access to papers, preferably from the comfort o my own home?
The Royal Society of Medicine has an excellent online service, very exhaustive. I don't think that non-docs can join though.
BTW: sorry to dissappoint but the BMA does not have any role in deciding the numbers of medical students. That is an issue for the Department of Health, the Universities and the General Medical Council.
Just checked it is possible to have Library membership if not a member of the RSM and not a Doctor, but it does cost £260 per year.
FWIW, I think we'll end up remaining in the EEA and continuing to trade and travel relatively freely with the EU, even if we're not perhaps in EFTA.
I think it will be tortuously difficult to get there, in a speedy and efficient manner, and I fear we'll end up still paying out billions to Brussels, and under the control of Eurocrats whilst not having any influence at all.
I think there can be no real negotiations right now, both sides especially the EU is too much emotional to think rationally.
I believe the best way is to let things cool down on both sides and start negotiating a period after we leave.
China in 2009, a group of us were at the top of a Chinese mountain range having just eaten wood ear fungus for dinner. 4 of us went through 8 bottles of rice wine (~35% vol) and had a synchronised piss off the side of a mountain into a valley below at sunrise.
To this day I'm not sure what possessed us to do it, other than the two bottles of rice wine we'd each had.
If I don't remind you of a Christmas pudding, I've failed
''I go back to my original prediction. It will be an enormous plateful of EU fudge. Vague and obscure enough for May to claim she's delivered on Brexit, and worded that way, yet explicit enough on British compromises for the EU to say the UK has suffered for leaving, the Four Freedoms are intact.''
I thought that initially but now I'm much sure. May is talking much tougher than I thought and seems to realise anything less than full and sovereign control of immigration will not do.
We'll start with that, and then see what we can get on trade and financial passporting. It may not be much.
See her Sky interview. Change of tone.
I agree. I was going to list a number of unforced May errors here. One of them was being unnecessarily aggressive towards EU partners. Maybe they are a bunch of self-serving buffoons, but they will undoubtedly be sore about the Brexit result and there is a time to be emollient. There is a big gap between hard Brexit, which is more or less inevitable, and scorched earth.
@SeanT There might just about be scope for compromise on a sliding scale. Partial restrictions on freedom of movement in return for only partial access to the single market. Sounds fiendishly difficult to execute and some court is going to need to sit over it. If not the ECJ, then what?
And which industries are going to be on the wrong side of the line? Which people are going to be excluded? Bear in mind that there are a heap of EU countries who do little trade with Britain but have a lot of people going to the UK to work. They don't have much incentive to cut a deal on that basis.
Not sure if this quote from May has been posted yet, but it warms the heart. For the first time since she won the leadership contest, I am sure UK plc will be getting the best possible deal in the negotiations:
"It is not about the UK, in some sense, being a supplicant to the EU but the reciprocity here - a good trade deal is going to be a benefit to us and the EU."
I keep hearing about the "May honeymoon". Well it seems full of argumentative and disagreeing people, judging by all the electoral results since she took over. By any measure her results have been a calamity. If the same happens at Witney, and there are ominous signs they could, she will be in real internal trouble.
Disagree with that. Callaghan and Major had very poor by election results after taking over but it did them little harm.
@SeanT There might just about be scope for compromise on a sliding scale. Partial restrictions on freedom of movement in return for only partial access to the single market. Sounds fiendishly difficult to execute and some court is going to need to sit over it. If not the ECJ, then what?
And which industries are going to be on the wrong side of the line? Which people are going to be excluded? Bear in mind that there are a heap of EU countries who do little trade with Britain but have a lot of people going to the UK to work. They don't have much incentive to cut a deal on that basis.
Indeed that's the nub of the problem.
There is absolutely no reason for FOM to be tied into free trade. The two are completely separate.
We can do free trade on a like-for-like basis.
And we can do free-ish movement with an equivalent range for both sides.
Do the EU tie freedom of movement with trade deals in other parts of the world?
If Britain doesn't compromise on freedom of movement, any idea of staying in the single market looks fanciful to me. Far too many politicians across the EU would have to eat their words to make that a runner.
Worth reading this
""I want that relationship to have the best possible deal, the maximum opportunity, for UK businesses to be able to trade with and to operate within that market in the European Union which is the Single Market".
The phrase "operate within" means that the Government is willing to contemplate some sort of shared regulatory framework with the European Union, short of European Court of Justice jurisdiction."
It's like Kremlinology; but, as you say, "operate within" is a very important term. It's hard to see how you operate within the Single Market without the ECJ having at least some jurisdiction, though.
@SeanT There might just about be scope for compromise on a sliding scale. Partial restrictions on freedom of movement in return for only partial access to the single market. Sounds fiendishly difficult to execute and some court is going to need to sit over it. If not the ECJ, then what?
And which industries are going to be on the wrong side of the line? Which people are going to be excluded? Bear in mind that there are a heap of EU countries who do little trade with Britain but have a lot of people going to the UK to work. They don't have much incentive to cut a deal on that basis.
Indeed that's the nub of the problem.
There is absolutely no reason for FOM to be tied into free trade. The two are completely separate.
We can do free trade on a like-for-like basis.
And we can do free-ish movement with an equivalent range for both sides.
Do the EU tie freedom of movement with trade deals in other parts of the world?
They don't tie it in other parts of the world.
But the EU is thinking with it's emotions not it's brain at the moment, that is why you have to wait until things cool down after Article 50.
@SeanT There might just about be scope for compromise on a sliding scale. Partial restrictions on freedom of movement in return for only partial access to the single market. Sounds fiendishly difficult to execute and some court is going to need to sit over it. If not the ECJ, then what?
And which industries are going to be on the wrong side of the line? Which people are going to be excluded? Bear in mind that there are a heap of EU countries who do little trade with Britain but have a lot of people going to the UK to work. They don't have much incentive to cut a deal on that basis.
Well the EFTA court would be a decent compromise, maybe a 4 person panel with two EU and two UK representatives? Separate to the ECJ and ultimately answerable to Parliament and the EU commission.
@SeanT There might just about be scope for compromise on a sliding scale. Partial restrictions on freedom of movement in return for only partial access to the single market. Sounds fiendishly difficult to execute and some court is going to need to sit over it. If not the ECJ, then what?
And which industries are going to be on the wrong side of the line? Which people are going to be excluded? Bear in mind that there are a heap of EU countries who do little trade with Britain but have a lot of people going to the UK to work. They don't have much incentive to cut a deal on that basis.
Unfortunately for Ms May it sits in Luxembourg, and given that two days ago she specifically said there won't be judges in Luxembourg presiding over us, we will also have to persuade the court to move to London.
Mind you, between London and Luxembourg, I know where I'd rather be a very well paid international judge.
The EFTA court has jurisdiction over EEA (Norway etc) but not the Swiss bilaterals. However the lack of oversight on bilateral-related law in Switzerland is a HUGE issue for the EU right now
Sounds to me like May is going for EFTA, like Switzerland, but with a real push to get passporting and "qualified" Free Movement.
There's no way the EU will give us that without some huge compromise on our side.
Something has to give. Contributions?
Not necessarily. She is going to say, look, this is what the UK has to do as a result of the referendum (supremacy of UK law, own trade representation, right to decide who gets to come to the UK), but here are the areas that, given those red lines, there is a common UK-EU imperative to do deals, out of mutual interest. Why we should have to pay to address areas of mutual interest is beyond me.
3. Do bilateral free trade agreements help trade that much? Not really. One issue is trade distortion. Say we agree an FTA to sell bedlinen to the USA, but the content rules require us to use American cotton to avoid import duties. It's a marginal call whether we wouldn't be better buying the better and cheaper cotton from Egypt and take the hit on the duties for the bedlinen we export to the USA. We can then buy and sell our linen to whomever we like. The Australian Productivity Commission concluded that preferential trade agreements (and in particular Australia's FTA with the USA) were at best neutral in terms of a net boost to trade. Multilateral agreements are good Unfortunately we are walking away from the most important of these. Apart from EU countries, we trade most with China and the US without bilateral free trade agreements in place.
Interestingly one of the potential positives of Brexit is an increase in the importance of the WTO. It would be feasible to imagine a scenario in which we don't really look to sign bilateral trade agreements but actually work much harder at the WTO level to remove/reduce tariffs across the board (and actually work on the punishment of those that don't follow the WTO rules). It has the effect of moving from 'multilateral FTA's' to 'globalateral Trade Agreements', albeit via no FTA's
Or we could reread Adam Smith and David Ricardo, the economists that originally explained why Free Trade would make a contrary wealthy. Or look at the experience of nations that have fully embraced Free trade, UK in 1850, Hon-Kong 1945, Singapore today. and accept the Fact, (counterintuitive it may be) that almost all the gains can be had by simply eliminating all are tariffs and regulatory restrictions, on all good and services, from any company or country, and expect to be 50% richer per person in 10 years.
That's not to say there are not additional benefits to us form other country's lowering there trade barriers, there are, ether unilaterally or in an FTA. A FTA with another country that does not distract from the above, then grate, (the Singapore approach) But let us make a success from free trade, others can watch and imitate, and then we can all be richer still, simple!
If Britain doesn't compromise on freedom of movement, any idea of staying in the single market looks fanciful to me. Far too many politicians across the EU would have to eat their words to make that a runner.
Worth reading this
""I want that relationship to have the best possible deal, the maximum opportunity, for UK businesses to be able to trade with and to operate within that market in the European Union which is the Single Market".
The phrase "operate within" means that the Government is willing to contemplate some sort of shared regulatory framework with the European Union, short of European Court of Justice jurisdiction."
It's like Kremlinology; but, as you say, "operate within" is a very important term. It's hard to see how you operate within the Single Market without the ECJ having at least some jurisdiction, though.
I expect we will move to an EFTA/EEA relationship as an unspecified transitional arrangement. This will draw the sting of the A50 deadline and open up the prospect of an eventual FTA, something which could take years to ratify. In the end very little will change and the issue will head for the long grass. I expect we will will depart the customs union so that we can have our own FTAs elewhere, and we may get an emergency break on immigration thrown in too. All but the hardcore idealogues should be able to live with this.
Goodness gracious, the number of people on here who drink gin. Astonishing. Not for nothing is it known as "mothers' ruin" and if that were not signal enough it is also the favoured spirit of RN officers. Repent ye all, and turn to whisky or even whiskey.
Thank goodness I say that we didn't have BMA limits in the period 1939-45
No wonder they are so stretched for resources and reliant on doctors from other countries.
That reminds me of something that's really annoyed me recently. I was trying to do a little medical research, and despite there being some very good websites, the best pointed to papers that were behind paywalls.
Does anyone know how a mere pleb can gain access to papers, preferably from the comfort o my own home?
Ask someone like me at a university to access them for you?
Thanks to you and Sunil.
The problem is that I'm not sure what I need to know, and therefore need access to scatter-gun my reading until I can narrow it down. Below is an example, though by far not the only one.
Basically, I had an operation back in 1988, and the more I look into, the less I understand what they did. I seem to be the only person I can find who was treated (ahem) in the way I was. Since there's a distinct possibility my son will have the same problem, I'm getting my research in a decade early.
It's also made harder by the fact I'm an engineer, not a doctor, and the terminology can be somewhat vexing for someone who is currently lacking in the memory department.
Sounds to me like May is going for EFTA, like Switzerland, but with a real push to get passporting and "qualified" Free Movement.
There's no way the EU will give us that without some huge compromise on our side.
Something has to give. Contributions?
I'd take that deal tomorrow - and pretty optimistically.
I wonder if May has accepted that her qualification to Free Movement might be small, and limited - a shift to Free Movement of Work not people?
So instead she knows she HAS to come down massively on non-EU migration, to get the results. Hence the ferocious talk on students, asylum seekers, etc, from Rudd.
There was an article yesterday stating that the UK owns billions of pounds worth of shared EU assets and that these assets are due to the UK on leaving. If that is true surely that is another big lever in UK's favour as a quid pro quo
This English guy is recommended by a friend to eat at a special restaurant in an old bull-fighting town in central Spain, and to do so on a Sunday. So the guy books a table for himself and dutifully turns up. The place is full and he notices one lone diner sitting at a table set on a raised platform. He doesn’t take too much notice of him, though, and sets to ordering his meal. As the waiter is finishing taking his order the restaurant lights suddenly dim, a spotlight falls on the lone diner, and a red carpet is rolled from the kitchen door to his table. Then six fanfare trumpeters appear and, three each side of the carpet, they sound a rousing flourish on their instruments. The kitchen doors open and out walk four waiters each supporting a large covered silver salver, one at each corner so to speak. As they slowly traverse the red carpet towards the raised table, the other diners are on their feet shouting: ‘Ole! Ole! Ole’ with every step they take. The lone diner sets his arms wide, a knife in one hand and a fork in the other, waiting enthusiastically. The waiters reach the table and gently set the salver in front of him. As the head waiter’s hand grasps the handle of the cover a hush falls across the restaurant. Then he lifts the cover to reveal two of the largest meatballs you have ever seen. The crowd is now shouting even loader ‘Ole!, Ole!, Ole!’ Eventually the noise subsides and the diner slices into the first meatball with his knife and fork. ‘What was all that about?’ asks the English guy to his waiter, ‘that was amazing!’ ‘Ahh,’ says the waiter, ‘it is the tradition of the house. We have the special arrangement with the bullring and we get the criadillas, the testicles, from the prize bull after the final fight of the day. Then they are cooked and ceremoniously served immediately after the bull fight is over, as you have seen, to the diner who has reserved the special table.’ ‘That IS amazing!’ says the English guy, ‘I must reserve the table for myself..’ ‘Sadly, senor, there is a long wait, and I will not be able to let you have a table for several weeks…’ The guy is not to be put off however, and he books a table some 3 months away. All the time he is looking forward to his meal and eventually the day arrives. He enters the restaurant, and he takes his place on the raised table. All eyes are upon him. After about ten minutes the ceremony starts. The lights dim, the spotlight falls upon him, the trumpeters sound their fanfare and the waiters enter with the large salver. ‘Ole! Ole! Ole!’ scream the other diners. The guy’s heart is pounding as the salver is placed upon the table, and then the head waiter lifts the cover to reveal… two extremely small meatballs. ‘Hey, what’s this?’ shouts the perplexed Englishman ‘I didn’t order these,. I ordered two bull’s testicles, not these tiny things. What’s going on?’ ‘Aahh, senor’ says the waiter, ‘You see… you have to appreciate… sometimes… the bull… he wins!’
I am 73 and cannot ever remember a worse opposition
The Opposition from 2001 to 2005 was diabolical. Blair decided we were going to war in Iraq on the evidence of some dodgy dossier yet the Opposition leader was so gung ho he wanted to send in more troops.
Then we had the spectacle of the Shadow Home Secretary being forced to support a policy on Identity Cards that he had publicly opposed.
They even wanted to throw more money at the public services than Gordon Brown, would you believe ?
One of their leaders kept trying to "turn up the volume" - it wasn't that nobody could hear him, nobody was listening but the party faithful kept standing up everytime he spoke like something out of a North Korean rally.
Happy days...
IDS 'laughing' during a John Humphrys interview was toe curling.
"She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "
I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?
IDS. Had say Ken Clarke or the vomit from a drunk been Leader of the Opposition in the run up to the Iraq war we might have avoided the greatest foreign policy and military disaster in this country's history.
Yep. They were obviously lying. I mean Alastair Campbell was speaking: what more evidence was needed?
I keep hearing about the "May honeymoon". Well it seems full of argumentative and disagreeing people, judging by all the electoral results since she took over. By any measure her results have been a calamity. If the same happens at Witney, and there are ominous signs they could, she will be in real internal trouble.
Disagree with that. Callaghan and Major had very poor by election results after taking over but it did them little harm.
Quite. The piffling little local by-election results mean next to nothing, especially if you set them against everything that happened in the last big round of elections in May: Labour having its worst local government results in opposition since the 80s and being humiliated in Scotland; the Lib Dems making modest gains in seat count in the councils, but losing one of their remaining authorities to Labour, coming 5th behind the Greens at Holyrood and almost becoming extinct in the Welsh Assembly; the Tories down by less than 50 seats nationally despite being the incumbent Government and in the middle of their pre-referendum polling slump. And there is nothing to indicate in the voter intention figures or other opinion surveys any mass movement away from Theresa May or the Conservative Party since the change of leadership. Not yet, anyway...
It would, if course, be a different matter if the Lib Dems could get anywhere close to winning Witney - AND if this were to be followed by signs, after many years, of some sort of recovery in the polls. Not impossible, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
Never were Grammar Schools in Scotland but I did go to the one probably nearest in Berwick on Tweed
Rubbish. I went to a school that was being converted to a Comprehensive from a grammar when I was there. I was in the first year of Comp to feed through. There were 2 grammar schools in Dundee. My father went to the other one.
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I don't think Brits will care THAT much about the detail, when the MEPs come home and we get our passports back and the EU symbol comes off our cars, we'll know we've left. That'll do for most people, they don't read Treaties (the only caveat here is migration: people do notice that, it will have to come down, noticeably).
It's the Tory Ultras in the Commons she will eventually have to squish. Somehow.
I think you are right on the British people not noticing the detail. We had our say and something happened probably covers it. The difficulty is with the fundamental nature of the EU which has never been clearly explained. The EU is a membership organisation not a set of treaties set in stone. The only way to "leave" the EU without completely changing the nature of the relationship is to move to a new category of membership. Not impossible but it will take major adjustment in thinking on both sides.
I keep hearing about the "May honeymoon". Well it seems full of argumentative and disagreeing people, judging by all the electoral results since she took over. By any measure her results have been a calamity. If the same happens at Witney, and there are ominous signs they could, she will be in real internal trouble.
Disagree with that. Callaghan and Major had very poor by election results after taking over but it did them little harm.
Quite. The piffling little local by-election results mean next to nothing, especially if you set them against everything that happened in the last big round of elections in May: Labour having its worst local government results in opposition since the 80s and being humiliated in Scotland; the Lib Dems making modest gains in seat count in the councils, but losing one of their remaining authorities to Labour, coming 5th behind the Greens at Holyrood and almost becoming extinct in the Welsh Assembly; the Tories down by less than 50 seats nationally despite being the incumbent Government and in the middle of their pre-referendum polling slump. And there is nothing to indicate in the voter intention figures or other opinion surveys any mass movement away from Theresa May or the Conservative Party since the change of leadership. Not yet, anyway...
It would, if course, be a different matter if the Lib Dems could get anywhere close to winning Witney - AND if this were to be followed by signs, after many years, of some sort of recovery in the polls. Not impossible, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
I know facts are not your strong point , but Lib Dems lost control of no council in May . They did take overall control of Watford council however .
Mr. T, nowhere near as well-travelled as most people, let along a travel reporter, but I had baby snakes (battered). They were rather nice.
Also had ox and sheep tongue. One was ok, shade rubbery, the other was displeasing as I could feel its tongue bumps on my own.
The weirdest thing was the duck embryo. It's a fertilised duck egg, just at the point of hatching - then they boil it. So you get the egginess but you are also crunching into a baby duck - brains, beaks, feathers, the works - but all soft and embryonic.
They call it balut.
It was actually very very tasty - meat and egg - but the concept and spectacle is so disgusting I nearly gagged
Ugh! They sell those down the road from me at the beach, cant say I have ever been the slightest inclined to try it, but its considered a delicacy here by traditionalists (with which I am surrounded living as I do deep in the boonies). This country is full of wierd foods I have no intention of trying, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinuguan for example, as well as many which are delightful.
"She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "
I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?
IDS. Had say Ken Clarke or the vomit from a drunk been Leader of the Opposition in the run up to the Iraq war we might have avoided the greatest foreign policy and military disaster in this country's history.
Yep. They were obviously lying. I mean Alastair Campbell was speaking: what more evidence was needed?
Mr. T, nowhere near as well-travelled as most people, let along a travel reporter, but I had baby snakes (battered). They were rather nice.
Also had ox and sheep tongue. One was ok, shade rubbery, the other was displeasing as I could feel its tongue bumps on my own.
The weirdest thing was the duck embryo. It's a fertilised duck egg, just at the point of hatching - then they boil it. So you get the egginess but you are also crunching into a baby duck - brains, beaks, feathers, the works - but all soft and embryonic.
They call it balut.
It was actually very very tasty - meat and egg - but the concept and spectacle is so disgusting I nearly gagged
Ugh! They sell those down the road from me at the beach, cant say I have ever been the slightest inclined to try it, but its considered a delicacy here by traditionalists (with which I am surrounded living as I do deep in the boonies). This country is full of wierd foods I have no intention of trying, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinuguan for example, as well as many which are delightful.
We had witchetty grub during a “bush tucker night” just outside Alice Springs some years ago. And I’ve had rat in Thailand.
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I disagree that this is smart negotiations. We're not likely to get much in transactional negotiations, for various reasons. The best thing we can do is maintain relatively good informal relations. I prefer Bob Sykes approach below: These are our red lines. Everything else you can keep on a reciprocal basis. If you don't want that we can discuss.
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I'm giving Mrs May the benefit of the doubt atm.
Ultimately the negotiation will come down to if the EU27 decide Juncker is a prat acting in his own interests and take control of the negotiations themselves.
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I'm still making my mind up about Theresa May but, this week, I have been very impressed with her.
I understand that our London Mayor, Sadiq Khan promised, in his manifesto, to plant 2 million trees in London by 2020. After half a year in office not one tree has peen planted, nor has any plan to plant been discussed.
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I'm still making my mind up about Theresa May but, this week, I have been very impressed with her.
Some accelerated capital investment at long last. Just hope they actually do it !
Meanwhile Osborne's family company say they will benefit from Brexit :-)
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I disagree that this is smart negotiations. We're not likely to get much in transactional negotiations, for various reasons. The best thing we can do is maintain relatively good informal relations. I prefer Bob Sykes approach below: These are our red lines. Everything else you can keep on a reciprocal basis. If you don't want that we can discuss.
Maybe I missed that but his later comments seemed somewhat pessimistic to me. I set out an idea of listing our priorities loud and clear yesterday or the day before. But I do think that the very confident approach of our current government as seen at this conference is likely to pay some dividends.
Mr. K, be fair. He's got a lot on his plate. Saying terrorism is bound to happen in cities and banning pictures of perfectly healthy women in bikinis on the tube doesn't happen magic, you know.
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I'm giving Mrs May the benefit of the doubt atm.
Ultimately the negotiation will come down to if the EU27 decide Juncker is a prat acting in his own interests and take control of the negotiations themselves.
Agreed. And they will. Parents can only let the children be noisy for so long before order has to be restored.
Of course, if Hannibal were conducting negotiations he would have led an army of men, horses and elephants through the Channel Tunnel, launching a surprise attack and claiming the north coast of France.
Edited extra bit: Mr. L, some parents are bloody woeful. Whilst I'm sure you're right about most, a few will just let their kids do as they please.
I keep hearing about the "May honeymoon". Well it seems full of argumentative and disagreeing people, judging by all the electoral results since she took over. By any measure her results have been a calamity. If the same happens at Witney, and there are ominous signs they could, she will be in real internal trouble.
Disagree with that. Callaghan and Major had very poor by election results after taking over but it did them little harm.
Quite. The piffling little local by-election results mean next to nothing, especially if you set them against everything that happened in the last big round of elections in May: Labour having its worst local government results in opposition since the 80s and being humiliated in Scotland; the Lib Dems making modest gains in seat count in the councils, but losing one of their remaining authorities to Labour, coming 5th behind the Greens at Holyrood and almost becoming extinct in the Welsh Assembly; the Tories down by less than 50 seats nationally despite being the incumbent Government and in the middle of their pre-referendum polling slump. And there is nothing to indicate in the voter intention figures or other opinion surveys any mass movement away from Theresa May or the Conservative Party since the change of leadership. Not yet, anyway...
It would, if course, be a different matter if the Lib Dems could get anywhere close to winning Witney - AND if this were to be followed by signs, after many years, of some sort of recovery in the polls. Not impossible, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
I know facts are not your strong point , but Lib Dems lost control of no council in May . They did take overall control of Watford council however .
Now now, play nice.
Stockport: leader before May 2016: Lib Dem, leader after May 2016: Labour.
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I'm giving Mrs May the benefit of the doubt atm.
Ultimately the negotiation will come down to if the EU27 decide Juncker is a prat acting in his own interests and take control of the negotiations themselves.
Agreed. And they will. Parents can only let the children be noisy for so long before order has to be restored.
That of course cant happen until the French and German elections are out of the way. And currently anything could happen. France is in a mess and Merkel is trying to destroy her own party.
Of course, if Hannibal were conducting negotiations he would have led an army of men, horses and elephants through the Channel Tunnel, launching a surprise attack and claiming the north coast of France.
Edited extra bit: Mr. L, some parents are bloody woeful. Whilst I'm sure you're right about most, a few will just let their kids do as they please.
My 13 year old is using highly inappropriate language on his X-box with one of his pals at the moment. No one is perfect.
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I'm still making my mind up about Theresa May but, this week, I have been very impressed with her.
This week I'm puzzled as to why, if she is so enthused with a sovereign independent country, she campaigned to remain a subservient lapdog of the EU.
Mr. K, be fair. He's got a lot on his plate. Saying terrorism is bound to happen in cities and banning pictures of perfectly healthy women in bikinis on the tube doesn't happen magic, you know.
It's the sort of thing politicians promised in the thirties to give the unemployed a few days work. Besides where is he going to plant them?
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I'm giving Mrs May the benefit of the doubt atm.
Ultimately the negotiation will come down to if the EU27 decide Juncker is a prat acting in his own interests and take control of the negotiations themselves.
Agreed. And they will. Parents can only let the children be noisy for so long before order has to be restored.
That of course cant happen until the French and German elections are out of the way. And currently anything could happen. France is in a mess and Merkel is trying to destroy her own party.
Merkel is almost certainly toast. There is very little chance of her standing again. France, who knows? As I have said several times the real key is going to be finding anyone who can say yes. They may not exist once that matriarchy of Merkel comes to an end.
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I'm still making my mind up about Theresa May but, this week, I have been very impressed with her.
This week I'm puzzled as to why, if she is so enthused with a sovereign independent country, she campaigned to remain a subservient lapdog of the EU.
She didn't campaign. Maybe she was one of those people who didn't like much of what the EU did, but thought it was the only game in town.
Mr. T, nowhere near as well-travelled as most people, let along a travel reporter, but I had baby snakes (battered). They were rather nice.
Also had ox and sheep tongue. One was ok, shade rubbery, the other was displeasing as I could feel its tongue bumps on my own.
The weirdest thing was the duck embryo. It's a fertilised duck egg, just at the point of hatching - then they boil it. So you get the egginess but you are also crunching into a baby duck - brains, beaks, feathers, the works - but all soft and embryonic.
They call it balut.
It was actually very very tasty - meat and egg - but the concept and spectacle is so disgusting I nearly gagged
Ugh! They sell those down the road from me at the beach, cant say I have ever been the slightest inclined to try it, but its considered a delicacy here by traditionalists (with which I am surrounded living as I do deep in the boonies). This country is full of wierd foods I have no intention of trying, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinuguan for example, as well as many which are delightful.
We had witchetty grub during a “bush tucker night” just outside Alice Springs some years ago. And I’ve had rat in Thailand.
Well done! I mostly choose not to enquire too closely, especially if the dish is described as "meat", it either tastes good and gets eaten, or it doesnt. I do have the slight irony of living on a tropical beach island with more wonderful seafood than you can shake a substantial stick at, for ridiculously little money.... and I am allergic to shellfish
I keep hearing about the "May honeymoon". Well it seems full of argumentative and disagreeing people, judging by all the electoral results since she took over. By any measure her results have been a calamity. If the same happens at Witney, and there are ominous signs they could, she will be in real internal trouble.
Disagree with that. Callaghan and Major had very poor by election results after taking over but it did them little harm.
Quite. The piffling little local by-election results mean next to nothing, especially if you set them against everything that happened in the last big round of elections in May: Labour having its worst local government results in opposition since the 80s and being humiliated in Scotland; the Lib Dems making modest gains in seat count in the councils, but losing one of their remaining authorities to Labour, coming 5th behind the Greens at Holyrood and almost becoming extinct in the Welsh Assembly; the Tories down by less than 50 seats nationally despite being the incumbent Government and in the middle of their pre-referendum polling slump. And there is nothing to indicate in the voter intention figures or other opinion surveys any mass movement away from Theresa May or the Conservative Party since the change of leadership. Not yet, anyway...
It would, if course, be a different matter if the Lib Dems could get anywhere close to winning Witney - AND if this were to be followed by signs, after many years, of some sort of recovery in the polls. Not impossible, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
I know facts are not your strong point , but Lib Dems lost control of no council in May . They did take overall control of Watford council however .
Now now, play nice.
Stockport: leader before May 2016: Lib Dem, leader after May 2016: Labour.
Which change had nothing to do with the local elections but presumably you would argue on that basis that the local elections saw Lib Dems take part control of Walsall , Milton Keynes and Elmbridge councils . Incidently nor was 2016 Labour's worst opposition year;s results since the 1980s . Their NEV share was lower in 1992 , 2013 , 2014 and 2015 as well as in 1982 and 1987
Mr. K, be fair. He's got a lot on his plate. Saying terrorism is bound to happen in cities and banning pictures of perfectly healthy women in bikinis on the tube doesn't happen magic, you know.
He's also consulting on putting tube staff back behind glass rather than out in the station helping passengers.
VP debate is going to be a snoozefest. If you are a masochists and are going to watch it then spice up your viewing by counting the number on time Pence equivocates on a Trump policy.
I understand that our London Mayor, Sadiq Khan promised, in his manifesto, to plant 2 million trees in London by 2020. After half a year in office not one tree has peen planted, nor has any plan to plant been discussed.
A politician not keeping their promises. Interesting.
Mr. T, nowhere near as well-travelled as most people, let along a travel reporter, but I had baby snakes (battered). They were rather nice.
Also had ox and sheep tongue. One was ok, shade rubbery, the other was displeasing as I could feel its tongue bumps on my own.
The weirdest thing was the duck embryo. It's a fertilised duck egg, just at the point of hatching - then they boil it. So you get the egginess but you are also crunching into a baby duck - brains, beaks, feathers, the works - but all soft and embryonic.
They call it balut.
It was actually very very tasty - meat and egg - but the concept and spectacle is so disgusting I nearly gagged
Ugh! They sell those down the road from me at the beach, cant say I have ever been the slightest inclined to try it, but its considered a delicacy here by traditionalists (with which I am surrounded living as I do deep in the boonies). This country is full of wierd foods I have no intention of trying, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinuguan for example, as well as many which are delightful.
A Filipina colleague has been threatening me with balut, it's apparently fairly easily obtainable in London.
VP debate is going to be a snoozefest. If you are a masochists and are going to watch it then spice up your viewing by counting the number on time Pence equivocates on a Trump policy.
Two sensible and experienced politicians debating policy will be something of a step up from the two monkeys throwing shit at each other, that we had to endure for an hour and a half last week!
I am still withholding judgment on the new regime but I agree with other posters who have said so far they have played this extremely well. Basically, their response to threats of a hard Brexit from the EU has been, "whatever, we have bigger fish to fry."
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
I'm giving Mrs May the benefit of the doubt atm.
Ultimately the negotiation will come down to if the EU27 decide Juncker is a prat acting in his own interests and take control of the negotiations themselves.
Agreed. And they will. Parents can only let the children be noisy for so long before order has to be restored.
That of course cant happen until the French and German elections are out of the way. And currently anything could happen. France is in a mess and Merkel is trying to destroy her own party.
Merkel is almost certainly toast. There is very little chance of her standing again. France, who knows? As I have said several times the real key is going to be finding anyone who can say yes. They may not exist once that matriarchy of Merkel comes to an end.
Is there any evidence Merkel is going to stand down?
Comments
I thought that initially but now I'm much sure. May is talking much tougher than I thought and seems to realise anything less than full and sovereign control of immigration will not do.
We'll start with that, and then see what we can get on trade and financial passporting. It may not be much.
If the EU thinks we are prepared to walk away (and I think we are) then that deal may be possible.
I think it will be tortuously difficult to get there, in a speedy and efficient manner, and I fear we'll end up still paying out billions to Brussels, and under the control of Eurocrats whilst not having any influence at all.
https://www.rsm.ac.uk/library/library-membership.aspx
And to think of the rapture from PB Tories just a couple of days ago when they thought May really had some kind of Damascene conversion.
I believe the best way is to let things cool down on both sides and start negotiating a period after we leave.
And which industries are going to be on the wrong side of the line? Which people are going to be excluded? Bear in mind that there are a heap of EU countries who do little trade with Britain but have a lot of people going to the UK to work. They don't have much incentive to cut a deal on that basis.
"It is not about the UK, in some sense, being a supplicant to the EU but the reciprocity here - a good trade deal is going to be a benefit to us and the EU."
Indeed that's the nub of the problem.
There is absolutely no reason for FOM to be tied into free trade. The two are completely separate.
We can do free trade on a like-for-like basis.
And we can do free-ish movement with an equivalent range for both sides.
Do the EU tie freedom of movement with trade deals in other parts of the world?
Mark Pack — "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction"
http://www.markpack.org.uk/140073/superforecasting-art-science-of-prediction-tetlock-gardner/
But the EU is thinking with it's emotions not it's brain at the moment, that is why you have to wait until things cool down after Article 50.
Only takes a couple to issue a leadership challenge, and they've held the same view for decades.
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/783309723332476928
Democrats are bothered by Trump's scandals, Republicans bothered by Hillary's scandals, very much partisan.
Not necessarily. She is going to say, look, this is what the UK has to do as a result of the referendum (supremacy of UK law, own trade representation, right to decide who gets to come to the UK), but here are the areas that, given those red lines, there is a common UK-EU imperative to do deals, out of mutual interest. Why we should have to pay to address areas of mutual interest is beyond me.
That's not to say there are not additional benefits to us form other country's lowering there trade barriers, there are, ether unilaterally or in an FTA. A FTA with another country that does not distract from the above, then grate, (the Singapore approach) But let us make a success from free trade, others can watch and imitate, and then we can all be richer still, simple!
*applies mind bleach*
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/113631.shtml?5day#contents
Presidential candidates vey much advised to prepare their "President in a Disaster movie" role.
So the guy books a table for himself and dutifully turns up. The place is full and he notices one lone diner sitting at a table set on a raised platform. He doesn’t take too much notice of him, though, and sets to ordering his meal.
As the waiter is finishing taking his order the restaurant lights suddenly dim, a spotlight falls on the lone diner, and a red carpet is rolled from the kitchen door to his table. Then six fanfare trumpeters appear and, three each side of the carpet, they sound a rousing flourish on their instruments.
The kitchen doors open and out walk four waiters each supporting a large covered silver salver, one at each corner so to speak. As they slowly traverse the red carpet towards the raised table, the other diners are on their feet shouting: ‘Ole! Ole! Ole’ with every step they take.
The lone diner sets his arms wide, a knife in one hand and a fork in the other, waiting enthusiastically. The waiters reach the table and gently set the salver in front of him. As the head waiter’s hand grasps the handle of the cover a hush falls across the restaurant. Then he lifts the cover to reveal two of the largest meatballs you have ever seen. The crowd is now shouting even loader ‘Ole!, Ole!, Ole!’ Eventually the noise subsides and the diner slices into the first meatball with his knife and fork.
‘What was all that about?’ asks the English guy to his waiter, ‘that was amazing!’
‘Ahh,’ says the waiter, ‘it is the tradition of the house. We have the special arrangement with the bullring and we get the criadillas, the testicles, from the prize bull after the final fight of the day. Then they are cooked and ceremoniously served immediately after the bull fight is over, as you have seen, to the diner who has reserved the special table.’
‘That IS amazing!’ says the English guy, ‘I must reserve the table for myself..’
‘Sadly, senor, there is a long wait, and I will not be able to let you have a table for several weeks…’
The guy is not to be put off however, and he books a table some 3 months away. All the time he is looking forward to his meal and eventually the day arrives. He enters the restaurant, and he takes his place on the raised table. All eyes are upon him. After about ten minutes the ceremony starts. The lights dim, the spotlight falls upon him, the trumpeters sound their fanfare and the waiters enter with the large salver. ‘Ole! Ole! Ole!’ scream the other diners. The guy’s heart is pounding as the salver is placed upon the table, and then the head waiter lifts the cover to reveal… two extremely small meatballs.
‘Hey, what’s this?’ shouts the perplexed Englishman ‘I didn’t order these,. I ordered two bull’s testicles, not these tiny things. What’s going on?’
‘Aahh, senor’ says the waiter, ‘You see… you have to appreciate… sometimes… the bull… he wins!’
New Monmouth poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania:
Clinton 50
Trump 40
Johnson 5
Stein 2
https://t.co/XKv6dl7t9B
It just makes us slaves to that political project.
The: "Since I can't win it, neither will she"
Trump to resign the nomination in order for Hillary to lose as well, since Hillary can only beat Trump and no one else.
It will be the most dramatic political suicide bombing, but it will be very effective against Hillary.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/justine-greening-goes-offensive-grammar-schools/
It would, if course, be a different matter if the Lib Dems could get anywhere close to winning Witney - AND if this were to be followed by signs, after many years, of some sort of recovery in the polls. Not impossible, but I wouldn't put any money on it.
But, as usual, Ruth has the politics spot on.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/harter-brexit-fuer-die-eu-14466222.html
LOL. Just excellent.
interesting, how Trump is viewed by subarban women
This may or may not be true but as a negotiating position it is hard to fault and improves our chances of getting what we want. Your article is one on many indications that EU members are starting to think this through with an eye to their own interests rather than protecting some absurd concept of EU supremacy.
Ohio is just about to move into the Democrat column.
Ultimately the negotiation will come down to if the EU27 decide Juncker is a prat acting in his own interests and take control of the negotiations themselves.
Meanwhile Osborne's family company say they will benefit from Brexit :-)
Edited extra bit: Mr. L, some parents are bloody woeful. Whilst I'm sure you're right about most, a few will just let their kids do as they please.
Stockport: leader before May 2016: Lib Dem, leader after May 2016: Labour.
Incidently nor was 2016 Labour's worst opposition year;s results since the 1980s . Their NEV share was lower in 1992 , 2013 , 2014 and 2015 as well as in 1982 and 1987