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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember when devaluations of the pound were a big politica

SystemSystem Posts: 12,150
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember when devaluations of the pound were a big political deal? No more it seems.

The pound has fared poorly on the foreign exchange markets since TMay’s speech on Sunday setting out her plans to extract the UK from the EU with the aim to invoke Article 50 in March next year.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    They'll notice eventually
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    It's because the whole world has been at it to a greater or lesser degree for the past decade. People just seem used to it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Third again?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    It ceased to be a big political issue, once governments ceased trying to defend a particular exchange rate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    So Assange stood up and said nothing, after all that hype about getting Clinton. Idiot.

    Have to laugh at all the luvvies, most of whom didn't know him, who posted Assange's bail in London though. They were mightily pissed off when Her Majesty cashed the cheques!
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    Fpt

    I understand that the A50 English high court case main proceedings start this month. Draft submission for both sides are available https://www.bindmans.com/uploads/files/documents/Article_50_final_corrected_and_unredacted_version.pdf https://www.bindmans.com/uploads/files/documents/Defendant_s_Detailed_Grounds_of_Resistance_for_publication.PDF
    and well worth reading.

    Northern Ireland high court case starts today http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37545894

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,751
    FPT: when's the court decision regarding Article 50 due?

    There were substantial falls in the pound during Labour's last period in office, wasn't there? Never became a serious issue.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen."

    Blimey Mike, which opposition can you remember that was worse?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/783230960347312128
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @CCHQPress: .@AmberRudd_MP: We want to tackle those terrorism cases where judges get the sentence wrong.

    Is it just me, or is she proposing politically motivated extra-judicial sentencing?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    Sean_F said:

    It ceased to be a big political issue, once governments ceased trying to defend a particular exchange rate.

    Correct.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    FPT.
    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    rottenborough said:

    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen."

    Blimey Mike, which opposition can you remember that was worse?

    Brown from 08-10 was pretty awful.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Yes it is staggering how the Conservative Party has become the proponents of devaluation and a worth less even worthless £ sterling within 50 years .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Does this mean an improvement is coming in our woeful current account deficit?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/783230960347312128

    Sounds like words of compromise from Mr Verhorfstadt. Juncker won't be happy. Excellent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    Scott_P said:

    @CCHQPress: .@AmberRudd_MP: We want to tackle those terrorism cases where judges get the sentence wrong.

    Is it just me, or is she proposing politically motivated extra-judicial sentencing?

    We used to have that not so long ago, until both the House of Lords and the ECHR put a block on it.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen."

    Blimey Mike, which opposition can you remember that was worse?

    Brown from 08-10 was pretty awful.
    I seem to remember Gordo was in No.10 not in opposition.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    On topic, the inflation will come with time, as the oil price starts to climb and US rate rises strengthen the dollar further. The reversal of the panicked rate cut of August would be a good starting point, but a return of interest rates to something approaching normality would make a big positive medium term difference to the economy.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    When Wilson devalued the pound, I think currencies were fixed against the value of the dollar (and therefore against gold where $35 = 1oz).

    Once Nixon closed the gold window, all currencies floated - it was not a political 'decision' as such to devalue.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    On topic, I don't remember GBPUSD being discussed much between mid August and early September either.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    Patrick said:

    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen."

    Blimey Mike, which opposition can you remember that was worse?

    Brown from 08-10 was pretty awful.
    I seem to remember Gordo was in No.10 not in opposition.
    I meant Labour specifically rather than the opposition. Hague was lamentably poor, but then he was facing down a massive majority rather than 12 like Corbyn.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We used to have that not so long ago, until both the House of Lords and the ECHR put a block on it.

    Next up, hanging...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    edited October 2016
    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It ceased to be a big political issue, once governments ceased trying to defend a particular exchange rate.

    Correct.
    Some things cease to be problems, once you stop worrying about them.

    It was a matter of national prestige that Sterling should trade at $2.80, and so it was a blow to national prestige, once the government could no longer sustain this rate. Once you cease to treat exchange rates as a matter of national prestige, they cease to matter very much.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    As everyone here knows, I don't like Rudd one iota - but she's kicking ass at CPC16.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Next up, hanging...''

    Its clearly going to take time for remainers to get used to a home secretary who can actually DO stuff as opposed to being hamstrung by our myriad European commitments.

    And if you don;t like it, campaign against it.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    OGH has discovered the beauty of a free floating currency exchange.
    Next he might discover decimalisation.

    Movements are market and trade determined not government determined and happen over a long period of time instead of a single day, so people don't really notice much, beautifull isn't it ?

    And people have learned the lesson of an artificially expensive pound:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_oET45GzMI

    I for once welcome OGH's and TSE's discovery of the 1990's, lets hope the eurozone discovers the 1990's as well.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    Big news for F1 fans, Mercedes have entered Formula-E for the 18/19 season. Hopefully McLaren will make their commitment soon.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I feel this coming on

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,122
    taffys said:

    ''Next up, hanging...''

    Its clearly going to take time for remainers to get used to a home secretary who can actually DO stuff as opposed to being hamstrung by our myriad European commitments.

    And if you don;t like it, campaign against it.

    The way domestic politics has developed since September '14 - just delicious.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''As everyone here knows, I don't like Rudd one iota - but she's kicking ass at CPC16.''

    I now freely admit it looks like I read May wrong. If she's got the cojones for a hard Brexit as now seems likely, well that's ten times as much bottle as I thought she had.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    On the positive side, the exchange rate is fantastic for those of us paid in dollars with a mortgage in Sterling. On the other hand, the part of my business exporting from dollarzone to the UK is becoming somewhat less profitable.

    UK industry will certainly be happier with the reduction though, Jaguar just found their cars got 10% cheaper than their German competition in the key markets of USA, Middle East and China. Ditto McLaren against their Italian competition and JCB against their American rivals.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,122
    Speedy said:

    OGH has discovered the beauty of a free floating currency exchange.
    Next he might discover decimalisation.

    Movements are market and trade determined not government determined and happen over a long period of time instead of a single day, so people don't really notice much, beautifull isn't it ?

    And people have learned the lesson of an artificially expensive pound:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_oET45GzMI

    I for once welcome OGH's and TSE's discovery of the 1990's, lets hope the eurozone discovers the 1990's as well.

    Post of the day!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/783230960347312128

    They probably shouldn't have appointed him as negotiator then...
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    “A weak currency arises from a weak economy which in turn is the result of a weak Government”
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    There is a world of difference between having $ 2,80 as a virility symbol and accepting that the £ sterling is a less desirable currency to hold than the Bangladesh Taka , Iranian Rial and Guatemalan Quetzel to give just 3 examples .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    edited October 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Big news for F1 fans, Mercedes have entered Formula-E for the 18/19 season. Hopefully McLaren will make their commitment soon.

    Ooh, interesting. Finally some big name entrants, now they opened up the rules to development.

    Maybe we'll see the cars on a proper track soon, as they get fast enough not to be embarrassed by Formula Ford cars and don't have to change the car half way through the race!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    It ceased to be a big political issue, once governments ceased trying to defend a particular exchange rate.

    Exactly. The currency devaluations happened in 67 and 92 despite the fact that the government of the day was trying to "fix" the exchange rate at an inappropriate level so the correction came despite not because of what the government was doing. A freely floating exchange rate is supposed to be free to float up and down so it is not a failure.

    The second major difference is the death of inflation and the spectre of deflation. With an inflation rate that's been hovering around 0, inflation currently is too low. If inflation goes up to 2.5% (Treasury forecast I believe) then that's an improvement on the situation we have now, not a failure. It's supposed to be close to 2% and we are too low currently.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/lorcanrk/status/783266032395882496
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    I think that twat from Guy is quite telling in a sense that the EU are worried that the UK may seek a much harder Brexit than they were preparing for. Whatever immigration fudge being readied might not be enough. So far Mrs May gets an A* for negotiation tactics. Better than Dave's F.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    JonathanD said:

    “A weak currency arises from a weak economy which in turn is the result of a weak Government”

    Funny, because I don't remember Gordon Brown saying that when we got to parity with the Euro.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,122
    Sandpit said:

    On the positive side, the exchange rate is fantastic for those of us paid in dollars with a mortgage in Sterling. On the other hand, the part of my business exporting from dollarzone to the UK is becoming somewhat less profitable.

    UK industry will certainly be happier with the reduction though, Jaguar just found their cars got 10% cheaper than their German competition in the key markets of USA, Middle East and China. Ditto McLaren against their Italian competition and JCB against their American rivals.

    Those of us who export almost exclusively GBP sourced products are rather pleased too....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    edited October 2016
    MarkSenior said:

    There is a world of difference between having $ 2,80 as a virility symbol and accepting that the £ sterling is a less desirable currency to hold than the Bangladesh Taka , Iranian Rial and Guatemalan Quetzel to give just 3 examples .

    MarkSenior said:

    There is a world of difference between having $ 2,80 as a virility symbol and accepting that the £ sterling is a less desirable currency to hold than the Bangladesh Taka , Iranian Rial and Guatemalan Quetzel to give just 3 examples .

    Given that our economy is plainly in better shape than any of those three countries, it's all rather irrelevant.

    If at some point in the future, the pound appreciates against those currencies, it won't say very much either.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Big news for F1 fans, Mercedes have entered Formula-E for the 18/19 season. Hopefully McLaren will make their commitment soon.

    Ooh, interesting. Finally some big name entrants, now they opened up the rules to development.

    Maybe we'll see the cars on a proper track soon, as they get fast enough not to be embarrassed by Formula Ford cars and don't have to change the car half way through the race!
    What's really great is that it is the F1 team that has entered unlike Renault who now have two separate racing teams.

    McLaren already provide a lot of the tech for FE, I'd love to see them give Jenson a car in 18/19 for FE since he probably won't get an F1 seat.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Given that our economy is plainly in better shape than any of those three countries, it's all rather irrelevant. ''

    I don;t know Mr Sean, I can see Iran being quite attractive for the likes of Goldman Sachs....
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the positive side, the exchange rate is fantastic for those of us paid in dollars with a mortgage in Sterling. On the other hand, the part of my business exporting from dollarzone to the UK is becoming somewhat less profitable.

    UK industry will certainly be happier with the reduction though, Jaguar just found their cars got 10% cheaper than their German competition in the key markets of USA, Middle East and China. Ditto McLaren against their Italian competition and JCB against their American rivals.

    Those of us who export almost exclusively GBP sourced products are rather pleased too....
    Indeed. I'm cheering the thing lower! Now if only we could crowbar interest rates up too......
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    welshowl said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the positive side, the exchange rate is fantastic for those of us paid in dollars with a mortgage in Sterling. On the other hand, the part of my business exporting from dollarzone to the UK is becoming somewhat less profitable.

    UK industry will certainly be happier with the reduction though, Jaguar just found their cars got 10% cheaper than their German competition in the key markets of USA, Middle East and China. Ditto McLaren against their Italian competition and JCB against their American rivals.

    Those of us who export almost exclusively GBP sourced products are rather pleased too....
    Indeed. I'm cheering the thing lower! Now if only we could crowbar interest rates up too......
    Not sure we'd hold Sterling down if the Bank started to raise rates.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    (((Harry Enten))) Verified account
    ‏@ForecasterEnten

    Fun fact: Trump's margin among white voters right now is less than Romney's was in 2012.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    MaxPB said:

    welshowl said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the positive side, the exchange rate is fantastic for those of us paid in dollars with a mortgage in Sterling. On the other hand, the part of my business exporting from dollarzone to the UK is becoming somewhat less profitable.

    UK industry will certainly be happier with the reduction though, Jaguar just found their cars got 10% cheaper than their German competition in the key markets of USA, Middle East and China. Ditto McLaren against their Italian competition and JCB against their American rivals.

    Those of us who export almost exclusively GBP sourced products are rather pleased too....
    Indeed. I'm cheering the thing lower! Now if only we could crowbar interest rates up too......
    Not sure we'd hold Sterling down if the Bank started to raise rates.
    Yeah I know. But I can dream.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT.

    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT.

    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    I have just re read the act provisions. There is no line which says it is legally binding. It does not need to have any line to verify that it is NOT legally binding as no referendum is unless specific provision is made for it to be so in its enabling act.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Big news for F1 fans, Mercedes have entered Formula-E for the 18/19 season. Hopefully McLaren will make their commitment soon.

    Ooh, interesting. Finally some big name entrants, now they opened up the rules to development.

    Maybe we'll see the cars on a proper track soon, as they get fast enough not to be embarrassed by Formula Ford cars and don't have to change the car half way through the race!
    What's really great is that it is the F1 team that has entered unlike Renault who now have two separate racing teams.

    McLaren already provide a lot of the tech for FE, I'd love to see them give Jenson a car in 18/19 for FE since he probably won't get an F1 seat.
    It should develop alongside GP2 as a good junior formula for the engineering teams to gain experience, with a combination of young F1 reserve drivers and old hands like Button providing experience.

    By the way, I had a drive in one of McLaren's road cars (650s) the other day. God is it quick, insanely so for something with number plates!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,122
    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT.

    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
    Because everyone who cannot come to terms with losing the referendum seems to be looking for ways to delay/deny the outcome....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MarkSenior said:

    There is a world of difference between having $ 2,80 as a virility symbol and accepting that the £ sterling is a less desirable currency to hold than the Bangladesh Taka , Iranian Rial and Guatemalan Quetzel to give just 3 examples .

    Your examples are nonsense. You are naming currencies that are not freely floating currencies and move in step changes which you are only right about if you exclude all the steps.

    In otherwords you're being even more dishonest than a Lib Dem bar chart.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    welshowl said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the positive side, the exchange rate is fantastic for those of us paid in dollars with a mortgage in Sterling. On the other hand, the part of my business exporting from dollarzone to the UK is becoming somewhat less profitable.

    UK industry will certainly be happier with the reduction though, Jaguar just found their cars got 10% cheaper than their German competition in the key markets of USA, Middle East and China. Ditto McLaren against their Italian competition and JCB against their American rivals.

    Those of us who export almost exclusively GBP sourced products are rather pleased too....
    Indeed. I'm cheering the thing lower! Now if only we could crowbar interest rates up too......
    Those actions tend to be mutually exclusive, although if the US and EU raise rates at the same time the effect should be negligible.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    (((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten Oct 1

    My guess is that Trump could get this tax story out of the press if he finally shoots someone on 5th ave.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It ceased to be a big political issue, once governments ceased trying to defend a particular exchange rate.

    Correct.
    Some things cease to be problems, once you stop worrying about them.

    It was a matter of national prestige that Sterling should trade at $2.80, and so it was a blow to national prestige, once the government could no longer sustain this rate. Once you cease to treat exchange rates as a matter of national prestige, they cease to matter very much.
    I remember watching the BBC 1 O'Clock News as a kid when they had graphics of parity £1:$1

    The exchange rate only matters to the vast majority for a couple of weeks when they buy travel money.

    I can't see the attraction of a high value currency that damages exports and UK tourism myself.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Huge trade deficit....lowered interest rates... pound falling.

    If only there was a dismal science to explain such weird events...
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Clinton up to +4.0 on the RCP 4 way averages, 3.8 on a two way.

    That may be her high point for a while, not sure how the betting market prices are for Trump
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT.

    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
    Yes it's advisory and the government is going to exercise its powers based on the advice received.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    They'll notice eventually

    It's not impacting inflation, yet we have a massive trade deficit - yet..

    What % of our consumption is domestic and what imported though ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    PlatoSaid said:

    As everyone here knows, I don't like Rudd one iota - but she's kicking ass at CPC16.

    Have you re-joined the party yet - and yes Amber Rudd very impressive. This is the first conservative conference for ages that feels conservative
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT.

    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
    Because everyone who cannot come to terms with losing the referendum seems to be looking for ways to delay/deny the outcome....
    I haven't heard much of that. There is a difference between thinking the result is a mistake and wanting it changed right away. But in any event your observation cannot change the nature of the referendum, clearly!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    They'll notice eventually

    It's not impacting inflation, yet we have a massive trade deficit - yet..

    What % of our consumption is domestic and what imported though ?
    Dunno.

    Nick Herbert was spot on, we're spending more time discussing the colour of the UK's passports and not enough on financial passporting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Philip_Thompson said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT.

    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
    Yes it's advisory and the government is going to exercise its powers based on the advice received.
    Quite. Is this the most tedious PB debate of all time?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Sandpit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT.

    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
    Yes it's advisory and the government is going to exercise its powers based on the advice received.
    Quite. Is this the most tedious PB debate of all time?
    Certainly not.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    They'll notice eventually

    It's not impacting inflation, yet we have a massive trade deficit - yet..

    What % of our consumption is domestic and what imported though ?
    Dunno.

    Nick Herbert was spot on, we're spending more time discussing the colour of the UK's passports and not enough on financial passporting.
    I suspect quite a bit of discussion on financial passporting either is or will happen behind closed doors.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    taffys said:

    ''As everyone here knows, I don't like Rudd one iota - but she's kicking ass at CPC16.''

    I now freely admit it looks like I read May wrong. If she's got the cojones for a hard Brexit as now seems likely, well that's ten times as much bottle as I thought she had.

    I needed to pinch myself whilst watching Rudd - deporting EU citizens for repeated minor crimes, tougher on terror and loads more.

    It was Howard on steroids. Excellent stuff.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Sandpit said:

    welshowl said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the positive side, the exchange rate is fantastic for those of us paid in dollars with a mortgage in Sterling. On the other hand, the part of my business exporting from dollarzone to the UK is becoming somewhat less profitable.

    UK industry will certainly be happier with the reduction though, Jaguar just found their cars got 10% cheaper than their German competition in the key markets of USA, Middle East and China. Ditto McLaren against their Italian competition and JCB against their American rivals.

    Those of us who export almost exclusively GBP sourced products are rather pleased too....
    Indeed. I'm cheering the thing lower! Now if only we could crowbar interest rates up too......
    Those actions tend to be mutually exclusive, although if the US and EU raise rates at the same time the effect should be negligible.
    Yes I realise that of course, but anything that gets interest rates off the floor is good in my book - even better than a falling Pound , though the latter is good in itself for me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    They'll notice eventually

    It's not impacting inflation, yet we have a massive trade deficit - yet..

    What % of our consumption is domestic and what imported though ?
    Dunno.

    Nick Herbert was spot on, we're spending more time discussing the colour of the UK's passports and not enough on financial passporting.
    Gone with the wind methinks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT.

    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
    Because everyone who cannot come to terms with losing the referendum seems to be looking for ways to delay/deny the outcome....
    I haven't heard much of that. There is a difference between thinking the result is a mistake and wanting it changed right away. But in any event your observation cannot change the nature of the referendum, clearly!
    No need to change the nature of the referendum. We advised the government, the government listens to that advice and chooses to respect it, job done.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,912
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT.

    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
    Because everyone who cannot come to terms with losing the referendum seems to be looking for ways to delay/deny the outcome....
    But which outcome (soft Brexit, hard Brexit, single market etc etc)?
  • DimitryDimitry Posts: 49
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/lorcanrk/status/783266032395882496

    This supposed correlation between the levels of UK equities and the GBPUSD rate is often quoted on this site, but the analysis here: http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2013/02/correlation-between-gbpusd-and-uk-equities/
    seems to suggest little correlation between the two. Which is right? I know intuition might support it but the data is hard to naysay.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,387
    Our economy is probably smaller than France's by now. At what point does it become smaller than Italy's?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Dimitry said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/lorcanrk/status/783266032395882496

    This supposed correlation between the levels of UK equities and the GBPUSD rate is often quoted on this site, but the analysis here: http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2013/02/correlation-between-gbpusd-and-uk-equities/
    seems to suggest little correlation between the two. Which is right? I know intuition might support it but the data is hard to naysay.
    Substitute 'Labour proximity to power' for Pound and we're getting there....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    They'll notice eventually

    It's not impacting inflation, yet we have a massive trade deficit - yet..

    What % of our consumption is domestic and what imported though ?
    We imported £548bn worth of goods and services in 2015, the economy is around £1.9tn nominal value so around 29% of our economic consumption is on imported goods and services.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    PlatoSaid said:

    taffys said:

    ''As everyone here knows, I don't like Rudd one iota - but she's kicking ass at CPC16.''

    I now freely admit it looks like I read May wrong. If she's got the cojones for a hard Brexit as now seems likely, well that's ten times as much bottle as I thought she had.

    I needed to pinch myself whilst watching Rudd - deporting EU citizens for repeated minor crimes, tougher on terror and loads more.

    It was Howard on steroids. Excellent stuff.
    Sounds good, will have to catch up on it later. Deporting foreign criminals, whoever would have thought of that!

    Ooh, and thanks for posting the Guardian long read article on Dan Hannan yesterday, a really good read once I finally caught up!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    They'll notice eventually

    It's not impacting inflation, yet we have a massive trade deficit - yet..

    What % of our consumption is domestic and what imported though ?
    Dunno.

    Nick Herbert was spot on, we're spending more time discussing the colour of the UK's passports and not enough on financial passporting.
    Any discussion about financial passport rights are not going to be happening in public.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Dimitry said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/lorcanrk/status/783266032395882496

    This supposed correlation between the levels of UK equities and the GBPUSD rate is often quoted on this site, but the analysis here: http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2013/02/correlation-between-gbpusd-and-uk-equities/
    seems to suggest little correlation between the two. Which is right? I know intuition might support it but the data is hard to naysay.
    I think US $ revenues as a proportion of the overall book are greater now than the mean revenue % between 1971 and 2012

    I can't back that up with hard figures, just an intuition (Increased globalisation the root cause)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Andrew Pierce
    Doctors will have to repay thousands if they leave NHS too soon after training. The first consequence of their botched strike
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    MaxPB said:

    I think that twat from Guy

    I think he's from Belgium, actually.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,912
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/lorcanrk/status/783266032395882496

    "In short, the FTSE 100 is increasingly unrepresentative of what’s going on in Britain."
    https://wealth.barclays.com/en_gb/smartinvestor/market-review/how-british-is-the-ftse-100.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    edited October 2016
    MarkSenior said:

    There is a world of difference between having $ 2,80 as a virility symbol and accepting that the £ sterling is a less desirable currency to hold than the Bangladesh Taka , Iranian Rial and Guatemalan Quetzel to give just 3 examples .

    Have you sold all your liquid Sterling deposits to purchase those currencies?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Our economy is probably smaller than France's by now. At what point does it become smaller than Italy's?

    India's is the next on the list and then Italy

    5 United Kingdom 2,760,960
    6 France 2,464,790
    7 India 2,288,720
    8 Italy 1,848,690

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Our economy is probably smaller than France's by now. At what point does it become smaller than Italy's?

    France overtook us on the night, while PB'ers were still counting up our winnings
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Doctors will have to repay thousands if they leave NHS too soon after training. The first consequence of their botched strike.''

    They are also ramping up the supply of new medics. Both long overdue.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Our economy is probably smaller than France's by now. At what point does it become smaller than Italy's?

    I like the probably here. Place contracted last quarter and wasn't pulling roots up before that.

    Anyway, Italy's GDP is about 2/3 that of the UK.

    Probably.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "

    I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    They'll notice eventually

    Those Christmas pressies will not be so cheap, nor next summers holiday.

    Who wants to go south of The delightful Isle of Wight anyway? There be dragons and seamonsters...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Dimitry said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/lorcanrk/status/783266032395882496

    This supposed correlation between the levels of UK equities and the GBPUSD rate is often quoted on this site, but the analysis here: http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2013/02/correlation-between-gbpusd-and-uk-equities/
    seems to suggest little correlation between the two. Which is right? I know intuition might support it but the data is hard to naysay.
    There is correlation between the exchange rate and the FTSE 100 specifically, as opposed to equities in general.
    The 100 are the largest companies, all global players who book a very high proportion of their revenues in foreign currency. The FTSE 250 is more representative of most British firms, hasn't followed the 100 quite so high.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/

    OR just proof that she knows what's electorally good for her in Socialist Republic of Scotland.
  • DimitryDimitry Posts: 49
    Pulpstar said:

    Dimitry said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/lorcanrk/status/783266032395882496

    This supposed correlation between the levels of UK equities and the GBPUSD rate is often quoted on this site, but the analysis here: http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2013/02/correlation-between-gbpusd-and-uk-equities/
    seems to suggest little correlation between the two. Which is right? I know intuition might support it but the data is hard to naysay.
    I think US $ revenues as a proportion of the overall book are greater now than the mean revenue % between 1971 and 2012

    I can't back that up with hard figures, just an intuition (Increased globalisation the root cause)
    There's some further analysis here that tends to support your thesis:
    https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/uk-equities-and-the-british-pound-becoming-inversely-related/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    not_on_fire said:

    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "

    I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?

    IDS. Had say Ken Clarke or the vomit from a drunk been Leader of the Opposition in the run up to the Iraq war we might have avoided the greatest foreign policy and military disaster in this country's history.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    As devaluation of the £ is a direct result of the voters own decision in the referendum against the PM's advice, the government cannot really be blamed in this instance and in any case the FTSE 100 remains strong
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,122
    Sandpit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT.

    not_on_fire said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    IanB2 said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
    Yes it's advisory and the government is going to exercise its powers based on the advice received.
    Quite. Is this the most tedious PB debate of all time?
    Erm, AV referendum??

    That was a snoozathon.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    TonyE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/

    OR just proof that she knows what's electorally good for her in Socialist Republic of Scotland.
    Scotland can't be that socialist, the Tories are the second largest party in Scotland, and given Ruth's performance, they may well be the largest party in Scotland within a few years.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    not_on_fire said:

    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "

    I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?

    IDS. Had say Ken Clarke or the vomit from a drunk been Leader of the Opposition in the run up to the Iraq war we might have avoided the greatest foreign policy and military disaster in this country's history.
    But we didn't join the Euro.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    As everyone here knows, I don't like Rudd one iota - but she's kicking ass at CPC16.

    Have you re-joined the party yet - and yes Amber Rudd very impressive. This is the first conservative conference for ages that feels conservative
    I'm inching closer - still not convinced. Very bruised over Brexit Cameroon behaviour. But watching CPC16 is wooing.
This discussion has been closed.