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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember when devaluations of the pound were a big politica

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    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "

    I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?

    I am 73 and cannot ever remember a worse opposition
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    The pound in your pocket has lost nearly all of its real value since 1970. Nobody is trying to convince you otherwise.
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    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "

    I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?

    I am 73 and cannot ever remember a worse opposition
    What opposition?
  • Options

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852
    TonyE said:

    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/

    OR just proof that she knows what's electorally good for her in Socialist Republic of Scotland.
    It's hardly news. Scotland has always had a separate education system to England, even before devolution.
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    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/

    Never were Grammar Schools in Scotland but I did go to the one probably nearest in Berwick on Tweed
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    I'm loving continuity Remainers desperately trying to make hay out of it.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT.

    IanB2 said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
    Yes it's advisory and the government is going to exercise its powers based on the advice received.
    Quite. Is this the most tedious PB debate of all time?
    Erm, AV referendum??

    That was a snoozathon.

    At least the AV snoozathon was *before* the referendum on the subject!
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    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    They'll notice eventually

    It's not impacting inflation, yet we have a massive trade deficit - yet..

    What % of our consumption is domestic and what imported though ?
    We imported £548bn worth of goods and services in 2015, the economy is around £1.9tn nominal value so around 29% of our economic consumption is on imported goods and services.
    Wrong slightly. The economy is measured by including exports and taking away imports. You need to take that into account.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    I bought €600 for my week long all incl Greek trip coming up, I doubt I'll even spend it all - it is nicely gaining value in my top drawer though !
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    Not only have Conservatives become the proponents of devaluation they have become the proponents of inflation too .
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960

    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "

    I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?

    IDS. Had say Ken Clarke or the vomit from a drunk been Leader of the Opposition in the run up to the Iraq war we might have avoided the greatest foreign policy and military disaster in this country's history.
    But equally we might have been in the Euro....which would have become the greatest foreign policy disaster in this country's history.

    The Norway Campaign was pretty dreadful, too....
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    Speaking purely selfishly - as one does - my modest nest egg is almost 50 grand more scrummy and yummy since the referendum, mostly apparently due to sterling's depreciation.

    Down, you gorgeous, shameless pound, down, down, down.

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    taffys said:

    ''As everyone here knows, I don't like Rudd one iota - but she's kicking ass at CPC16.''

    I now freely admit it looks like I read May wrong. If she's got the cojones for a hard Brexit as now seems likely, well that's ten times as much bottle as I thought she had.

    I needed to pinch myself whilst watching Rudd - deporting EU citizens for repeated minor crimes, tougher on terror and loads more.

    It was Howard on steroids. Excellent stuff.
    Sounds good, will have to catch up on it later. Deporting foreign criminals, whoever would have thought of that!

    Ooh, and thanks for posting the Guardian long read article on Dan Hannan yesterday, a really good read once I finally caught up!
    I find Hannan really rather sexy and scary in a Professor Moriarty way - he'd make a master criminal if he'd chosen another path.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    TonyE said:

    FPT.

    IanB2 said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    I have just re read the act provisions. There is no line which says it is legally binding. It does not need to have any line to verify that it is NOT legally binding as no referendum is unless specific provision is made for it to be so in its enabling act.
    People are still arguing about this?! Christ, even on PB this is getting silly.

    Bottom line, people are free to donate their political careers to try and stop Brexit, it is legally permissable to try to stop it, to in fact ignore the referendum completely. That a minority of Remainers would indeed like to try that does not make it in any way likely, so every Brexiter should relax.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,471
    edited October 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    As everyone here knows, I don't like Rudd one iota - but she's kicking ass at CPC16.

    Have you re-joined the party yet - and yes Amber Rudd very impressive. This is the first conservative conference for ages that feels conservative
    I'm inching closer - still not convinced. Very bruised over Brexit Cameroon behaviour. But watching CPC16 is wooing.
    I supported David Cameron but that is past and we have in Theresa May a grounded politician and a party conference ticking all the right boxes. Looking forward to her speech tomorrow afternoon
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    Mortimer said:

    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "

    I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?

    IDS. Had say Ken Clarke or the vomit from a drunk been Leader of the Opposition in the run up to the Iraq war we might have avoided the greatest foreign policy and military disaster in this country's history.
    But equally we might have been in the Euro....which would have become the greatest foreign policy disaster in this country's history.

    The Norway Campaign was pretty dreadful, too....
    We would have had a referendum on joining the Euro. Trust the people,

    I still think the fall of Singapore was the biggest eff up in terms of military disasters, that along any losses to France.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    kle4 said:

    TonyE said:

    FPT.

    IanB2 said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    I have just re read the act provisions. There is no line which says it is legally binding. It does not need to have any line to verify that it is NOT legally binding as no referendum is unless specific provision is made for it to be so in its enabling act.
    People are still arguing about this?! Christ, even on PB this is getting silly.

    Bottom line, people are free to donate their political careers to try and stop Brexit, it is legally permissable to try to stop it, to in fact ignore the referendum completely. That a minority of Remainers would indeed like to try that does not make it in any way likely, so every Brexiter should relax.
    Nobody is answering the difficult question - which Brexit?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Never were Grammar Schools in Scotland but I did go to the one probably nearest in Berwick on Tweed

    Ummm

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paisley_Grammar_School

    Andrew Neil most prominent Alum right now
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    :smiley:

    Rinka the Dog
    Reservoir Dogs II fails to win over critics. @MarcherLord1 https://t.co/2LpWrOGxu5
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Scott_P said:

    Never were Grammar Schools in Scotland but I did go to the one probably nearest in Berwick on Tweed

    Ummm

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paisley_Grammar_School

    Andrew Neil most prominent Alum right now
    I was going to be pedantic and point this out ( I think there are about a dozen 'Grammar Schools' in Scotland) but they are non-selective so I thought I'd let it past.

    The other major difference between Scotland and England of course is the lack of fee paying schools.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    The tipping point with France is about €1.19 vs €1.14 at the moment, but the French economy is not expanding, around 4% of nominal growth will bridge the gap at current rates. Given where inflation is heading and current rates of expansion we might get fifth place back by this time next year anyway.
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    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    Not only have Conservatives become the proponents of devaluation they have become the proponents of inflation too .
    2% inflation yes. Below that is bad, above that is bad, that is target.

    We have gone from being 1.5% away from our inflation target to 1.4% away from target. Hopefully we will continue to get closer to target.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108

    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/

    Never were Grammar Schools in Scotland but I did go to the one probably nearest in Berwick on Tweed
    Really? My father went to what from his description sounded like a grammar school in 1960s Glasgow. Got him from a shitty council estate to the middle classes.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Casino_Royale As you read through this thread, you can feel Britain shrinking: shrinking in economy size relative to its competitors, shrinking in influence, shrinking in its horizons. The Leavers sought this shrivelling and so must embrace it. We are reading of Leavers who are happy not to be taking foreign holidays.

    The country has not yet finished its descent to the bottom of this well.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Getting lots of " let's build Heathrow" adverts on this site?

    I think we should just cut to the quick and expand Biggin hill by two grass runways and a build a new cinder track for vehicular access.

    Sorted....
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    Scott_P said:

    Never were Grammar Schools in Scotland but I did go to the one probably nearest in Berwick on Tweed

    Ummm

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paisley_Grammar_School

    Andrew Neil most prominent Alum right now
    In my time it was a fee paying school
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,252
    edited October 2016

    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/

    Supporting them in Scotland would be similar to committing Hari Kari. Given the donkey flip flops on a daily basis , she will be supporting soon, as soon as BigT sends her the e-mail.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601

    kle4 said:

    TonyE said:

    FPT.

    IanB2 said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    I have just re read the act provisions. There is no line which says it is legally binding. It does not need to have any line to verify that it is NOT legally binding as no referendum is unless specific provision is made for it to be so in its enabling act.
    People are still arguing about this?! Christ, even on PB this is getting silly.

    Bottom line, people are free to donate their political careers to try and stop Brexit, it is legally permissable to try to stop it, to in fact ignore the referendum completely. That a minority of Remainers would indeed like to try that does not make it in any way likely, so every Brexiter should relax.
    Nobody is answering the difficult question - which Brexit?
    I would be interested (seriously) to know how much faith those here that are clearly keen and eager to see Brexit actually have in the ability of the current government to make the best of it?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    Dimitry said:

    Scott_P said:
    This supposed correlation between the levels of UK equities and the GBPUSD rate is often quoted on this site, but the analysis here: http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2013/02/correlation-between-gbpusd-and-uk-equities/
    seems to suggest little correlation between the two. Which is right? I know intuition might support it but the data is hard to naysay.
    This seems a bit mad. Exchange rates tend to hover around the same place for a while then do the big moves in a short space of time, so why would you hide the signal in noise by grouping it by months and plotting a point for every month?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JonathanD said:

    I was going to be pedantic and point this out ( I think there are about a dozen 'Grammar Schools' in Scotland) but they are non-selective so I thought I'd let it past.

    The other major difference between Scotland and England of course is the lack of fee paying schools.

    Ummm

    Scotland did use selective entry (until it was abolished)

    And there are many fee paying schools in Scotland
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "

    I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?

    I am 73 and cannot ever remember a worse opposition
    I'm a mere 49 and this is Opposition in name only. Paul Flynn is over 80yrs old and has two hats.

    It's a joke - most debates have no one challenging HMG, they're letting Tories push anything through. It's incredible and unworthy.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,252

    TonyE said:

    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/

    OR just proof that she knows what's electorally good for her in Socialist Republic of Scotland.
    Scotland can't be that socialist, the Tories are the second largest party in Scotland, and given Ruth's performance, they may well be the largest party in Scotland within a few years.
    You are a sandwich short of a picnic if you even harbour that thought. They are going nowhere. Unbelievable the fantasy world the frothers on here live in.
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    JohnO said:

    Speaking purely selfishly - as one does - my modest nest egg is almost 50 grand more scrummy and yummy since the referendum, mostly apparently due to sterling's depreciation.

    Down, you gorgeous, shameless pound, down, down, down.

    Snap!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    Not only have Conservatives become the proponents of devaluation they have become the proponents of inflation too .
    2% inflation yes. Below that is bad, above that is bad, that is target.

    We have gone from being 1.5% away from our inflation target to 1.4% away from target. Hopefully we will continue to get closer to target.
    I'd be looking for 3% inflation and 2% growth for a few years if I were the newly installed chancellor. The reverse seems unlikely at the moment.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    taffys said:

    ''As everyone here knows, I don't like Rudd one iota - but she's kicking ass at CPC16.''

    I now freely admit it looks like I read May wrong. If she's got the cojones for a hard Brexit as now seems likely, well that's ten times as much bottle as I thought she had.

    I needed to pinch myself whilst watching Rudd - deporting EU citizens for repeated minor crimes, tougher on terror and loads more.

    It was Howard on steroids. Excellent stuff.
    Sounds good, will have to catch up on it later. Deporting foreign criminals, whoever would have thought of that!

    Ooh, and thanks for posting the Guardian long read article on Dan Hannan yesterday, a really good read once I finally caught up!
    I find Hannan really rather sexy and scary in a Professor Moriarty way - he'd make a master criminal if he'd chosen another path.
    You just said that out loud!

    I hadn't heard much of his back story before, working in the '90s with the 'bastards' and for the Telegraph as a leader writer. Will be fascinating to see what he does after we finally give him the P45 he's craved for so long!
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,252

    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/

    Never were Grammar Schools in Scotland but I did go to the one probably nearest in Berwick on Tweed
    Yes there were
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited October 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT.

    IanB2 said:

    @Richard_Nabavi Either it was advisory or it was not.

    Indeed.

    And it wasn't.
    But it was
    "This is a simple, but vital, piece of legislation. It has one clear purpose: to deliver on our promise to give the British people the final say on our EU membership in an in/out referendum by the end of 2017. "
    Can you provide the line in the act authorizing the referendum that says it was legally binding?
    Can you provide the line that says that it wasn't?
    This is a pointless discussion; if you look at the Act you can see that it is advisory; the government said it was advisory when it proposed it (but also promised to implement the result), and simple logic can establish that it is advisory. What's the point in arguing about it?
    Yes it's advisory and the government is going to exercise its powers based on the advice received.
    Quite. Is this the most tedious PB debate of all time?
    Erm, AV referendum??

    That was a snoozathon.

    The problem of the AV referendum was that no one explained the advantages properly on PB. Could anyone contribute a summary of its manyfold advantages? :-)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    JohnO said:

    Speaking purely selfishly - as one does - my modest nest egg is almost 50 grand more scrummy and yummy since the referendum, mostly apparently due to sterling's depreciation.

    Down, you gorgeous, shameless pound, down, down, down.

    But is your 300k? pot worth more or less in US$ terms :)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The problem of the AV referendum was that no one explained the advantages properly on PB. Could anyone contribute a summary of its manyfold advantages? :-)

    There are none.

    Next!
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    taffys said:

    ''Doctors will have to repay thousands if they leave NHS too soon after training. The first consequence of their botched strike.''

    They are also ramping up the supply of new medics. Both long overdue.

    Repay training costs -- that won't last -- it's politically daft because doctors *ought* to be voting Tory if Hunt would stop upsetting them, and more importantly will hit women hardest, and the PM is one of them.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,945


    I am 73 and cannot ever remember a worse opposition

    The Opposition from 2001 to 2005 was diabolical. Blair decided we were going to war in Iraq on the evidence of some dodgy dossier yet the Opposition leader was so gung ho he wanted to send in more troops.

    Then we had the spectacle of the Shadow Home Secretary being forced to support a policy on Identity Cards that he had publicly opposed.

    They even wanted to throw more money at the public services than Gordon Brown, would you believe ?

    One of their leaders kept trying to "turn up the volume" - it wasn't that nobody could hear him, nobody was listening but the party faithful kept standing up everytime he spoke like something out of a North Korean rally.

    Happy days...

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    Scott_P said:

    The problem of the AV referendum was that no one explained the advantages properly on PB. Could anyone contribute a summary of its manyfold advantages? :-)

    There are none.

    Next!
    There are some, but this isn't the time.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Sean_F said:

    There is a world of difference between having $ 2,80 as a virility symbol and accepting that the £ sterling is a less desirable currency to hold than the Bangladesh Taka , Iranian Rial and Guatemalan Quetzel to give just 3 examples .

    There is a world of difference between having $ 2,80 as a virility symbol and accepting that the £ sterling is a less desirable currency to hold than the Bangladesh Taka , Iranian Rial and Guatemalan Quetzel to give just 3 examples .

    Given that our economy is plainly in better shape than any of those three countries, it's all rather irrelevant.

    If at some point in the future, the pound appreciates against those currencies, it won't say very much either.
    Indeed, I wonder what the off-shore holdings or central bank reserve holdings total in those currencies vs sterling. Come to think of it, no, I don't wonder ... It's f*cking obvious. Mark Senior being a twat again.
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    @Casino_Royale As you read through this thread, you can feel Britain shrinking: shrinking in economy size relative to its competitors, shrinking in influence, shrinking in its horizons. The Leavers sought this shrivelling and so must embrace it. We are reading of Leavers who are happy not to be taking foreign holidays.
    The country has not yet finished its descent to the bottom of this well.

    http://theendisnighmagazine.blogspot.co.uk/
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    IanB2 said:

    There are some, but this isn't the time.

    You are more wrong than a Brexiteer on Article 50 and the role of Parliament, but this isn't the time
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,294
    edited October 2016

    Our economy is probably smaller than France's by now. At what point does it become smaller than Italy's?

    On the current GBP/USD and EUR/USD exchange rates, France has overtaken us into second, albeit marginally ($2.53trl vs $2.48trl). Italy is, however, some way behind ($1.91trl). India will likely overtake us in the next two years, so we are in danger of theoretically falling out of the G7.

    Edit to add: oops, I mean falling into 7th position...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108

    taffys said:

    ''Doctors will have to repay thousands if they leave NHS too soon after training. The first consequence of their botched strike.''

    They are also ramping up the supply of new medics. Both long overdue.

    Repay training costs -- that won't last -- it's politically daft because doctors *ought* to be voting Tory if Hunt would stop upsetting them, and more importantly will hit women hardest, and the PM is one of them.
    Training bonds are quite common in the private sector. There's no reason why the NHS should spend hundreds of thousands training someone, for them to disappear at the first opportunity once they're trained and able to earn money.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mortimer said:

    "She’s very much assisted by the mediocre opposition that she faces from the LAB front bench which is one of the worst I have seen. "

    I'm only 33, but when has there been worse?

    IDS. Had say Ken Clarke or the vomit from a drunk been Leader of the Opposition in the run up to the Iraq war we might have avoided the greatest foreign policy and military disaster in this country's history.
    But equally we might have been in the Euro....which would have become the greatest foreign policy disaster in this country's history.

    The Norway Campaign was pretty dreadful, too....
    We would have had a referendum on joining the Euro. Trust the people,

    I still think the fall of Singapore was the biggest eff up in terms of military disasters, that along any losses to France.
    See Jeremy Clarkson's documentary on PQ17 an Arctic Convoy Disaster, if you want to judge cock-ups by stupid decisions rather than lives or territory lost. Spoiler: the convoy was scattered to avoid Tirpitz, which was not at sea.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited October 2016
    taffys said:

    ''Doctors will have to repay thousands if they leave NHS too soon after training. The first consequence of their botched strike.''

    They are also ramping up the supply of new medics. Both long overdue.

    It will be 2028 before any of the new Docs are out of the Foundation programme, so not going to affect anyone for a long time yet.

    The 25% expansion of medical school intake is long overdue, but probably needs to be at least another 25% to allow for demography. It should keep me occupied for the next few years at the Medical School.

    And on the plus side it does mean that the Tories still plan to have a NHS in 2028....
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Sandpit said:

    On topic, the inflation will come with time, as the oil price starts to climb and US rate rises strengthen the dollar further. The reversal of the panicked rate cut of August would be a good starting point, but a return of interest rates to something approaching normality would make a big positive medium term difference to the economy.

    What would be the economic justification to return them to normality? And, more interestingly, what is normality?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    FPT:

    FF43 said:

    Morning all. Are people here in favour of Gatwick, Heathrow, or Heathrow Hub, or any combination thereof? I'm liking the cut of Heathrow Hub's gib at the moment (probably meaning they won't get the gig).

    Heathrow Hub is the extension of the current north runway? Do that and build runway 3, resulting in four effective runways. Require a plan to reduce overall noise impact from the airport to keep neighbours happy.
    Yes. And it requires a lot less disturbance to communities. You'd think for that reason it would be T May's choice. But it also seems to have quite a good plan for surrounding transport infrastructure too. http://www.heathrowhub.com

    Its interesting that there doesn't seem to be much made here of the distinction between the Heathrow and Heathrow Hub proposals.
    Have you read the Airports Commission final report, which goes thoroughly into the advantages and disadvantages of both Heathrow expansion and Heathrow Hub?

    Conclusions in section 13.8 onwards.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/airports-commission-final-report
    Thanks, an interesting read. I disagree with the weight they attach to the various arguments for a third runway vs. extending the 2nd, and therefore their conclusion.

    I'd give Heathrow Hub the go ahead, and give Gatwick the go-ahead if they think they can make it work with Heathrow expanding also.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    It seems to have become their version of the 'magic money tree' when no matter how crappily you run the economy there is no such thing as bad news - so long as you never go abroad or buy any foreign made goods...ever... :)
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Autarkists to a man.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    Not only have Conservatives become the proponents of devaluation they have become the proponents of inflation too .
    2% inflation yes. Below that is bad, above that is bad, that is target.

    We have gone from being 1.5% away from our inflation target to 1.4% away from target. Hopefully we will continue to get closer to target.
    I'd be looking for 3% inflation and 2% growth for a few years if I were the newly installed chancellor. The reverse seems unlikely at the moment.
    Indeed a few years of 5% nominal growth would do wonders for the Treasury. And be with inflation closer to target than what we have today.

    When inflation is too high everyone acknowledges a fall as a good thing. What's weird is we have so many economically illiterate people that they think a modest rise in inflation when it's too low is bad thing. Too low is as bad as too high.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    taffys said:

    ''Doctors will have to repay thousands if they leave NHS too soon after training. The first consequence of their botched strike.''

    They are also ramping up the supply of new medics. Both long overdue.

    Repay training costs -- that won't last -- it's politically daft because doctors *ought* to be voting Tory if Hunt would stop upsetting them, and more importantly will hit women hardest, and the PM is one of them.
    Training bonds are quite common in the private sector. There's no reason why the NHS should spend hundreds of thousands training someone, for them to disappear at the first opportunity once they're trained and able to earn money.
    No doubt the government can justify it -- but it is politically stupid for the reasons I've given, and I suspect will be quietly dropped.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307

    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/

    Scotland has no grammars and the SNP government decide education policy so what Davidson thinks makes little real difference either way at present, though some Scottish Tory voters may like grammars
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    taffys said:

    ''As everyone here knows, I don't like Rudd one iota - but she's kicking ass at CPC16.''

    I now freely admit it looks like I read May wrong. If she's got the cojones for a hard Brexit as now seems likely, well that's ten times as much bottle as I thought she had.

    I needed to pinch myself whilst watching Rudd - deporting EU citizens for repeated minor crimes, tougher on terror and loads more.

    It was Howard on steroids. Excellent stuff.
    Sounds good, will have to catch up on it later. Deporting foreign criminals, whoever would have thought of that!

    Ooh, and thanks for posting the Guardian long read article on Dan Hannan yesterday, a really good read once I finally caught up!
    I find Hannan really rather sexy and scary in a Professor Moriarty way - he'd make a master criminal if he'd chosen another path.
    You just said that out loud!

    I hadn't heard much of his back story before, working in the '90s with the 'bastards' and for the Telegraph as a leader writer. Will be fascinating to see what he does after we finally give him the P45 he's craved for so long!
    :lol:
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    It seems to have become their version of the 'magic money tree' when no matter how crappily you run the economy there is no such thing as bad news - so long as you never go abroad or buy any foreign made goods...ever... :)
    Whereas in the "global economic race" the exchange rate is effectively the score.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited October 2016
    Sandpit said:

    taffys said:

    ''Doctors will have to repay thousands if they leave NHS too soon after training. The first consequence of their botched strike.''

    They are also ramping up the supply of new medics. Both long overdue.

    Repay training costs -- that won't last -- it's politically daft because doctors *ought* to be voting Tory if Hunt would stop upsetting them, and more importantly will hit women hardest, and the PM is one of them.
    Training bonds are quite common in the private sector. There's no reason why the NHS should spend hundreds of thousands training someone, for them to disappear at the first opportunity once they're trained and able to earn money.
    Easier than this would be to have a scheme whereby you have x knocked off your student loan / reduced rate of repayment for every year you work in the NHS. Set at the right level it could certainly stop the standard procession of dentists doing their training, handful of years in NHS dentistry then off to private practice asap.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,156

    taffys said:

    ''Doctors will have to repay thousands if they leave NHS too soon after training. The first consequence of their botched strike.''

    They are also ramping up the supply of new medics. Both long overdue.

    It will be 2028 before any of the new Docs are out of the Foundation programme, so not going to affect anyone for a long time yet.

    The 25% expansion of medical school intake is long overdue, but probably needs to be at least another 25% to allow for demography. It should keep me occupied for the next few years at the Medical School.

    And on the plus side it does mean that the Tories still plan to have a NHS in 2028....
    Is UCLAN Medical School accepting British students? Was told, on not very good authority, admittedly, that it wasn’t.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    taffys said:

    ''Doctors will have to repay thousands if they leave NHS too soon after training. The first consequence of their botched strike.''

    They are also ramping up the supply of new medics. Both long overdue.

    Repay training costs -- that won't last -- it's politically daft because doctors *ought* to be voting Tory if Hunt would stop upsetting them, and more importantly will hit women hardest, and the PM is one of them.
    Training bonds are quite common in the private sector. There's no reason why the NHS should spend hundreds of thousands training someone, for them to disappear at the first opportunity once they're trained and able to earn money.
    IIRC the RAF contract requires a number of years service in return for training.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307
    edited October 2016
    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Never were Grammar Schools in Scotland but I did go to the one probably nearest in Berwick on Tweed

    Ummm

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paisley_Grammar_School

    Andrew Neil most prominent Alum right now
    I was going to be pedantic and point this out ( I think there are about a dozen 'Grammar Schools' in Scotland) but they are non-selective so I thought I'd let it past.

    The other major difference between Scotland and England of course is the lack of fee paying schools.
    Lamont, Darling, Blair etc all went to Scottish private schools
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/10/04/trump-backers-feel-played-as-wikileaks-fails-to-come-through-on-october-surprise/

    Ha, hilarious

    'That didn’t go over well with Trump backers who had stayed up through the night, thinking they’d be watching live the unveiling of the death blow to the Clinton campaign.'
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    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    For all our talk on here, the Torygraph seems to have forgotten the basics of how the British state works when they say that "Theresa May will repeal the 1972 European Communities Act". She can't do any such thing.

    Neither Theresa May nor the government have the authority to trigger Article 50 either. Why? Because doing so would reverse a decision by Parliament, which can only be done by Parliament. Only Parliament can give them that authority. Even if the leader of this pearls-and-hairstyle cackheap of a government, with its clown as a Foreign Secretary - a government which probably won't last long - did send in an Article 50 letter, the Supreme Court would declare that her act of doing so was unlawful. And that, dear Leavers, is what counts. The Commission would have to swallow that and rip the letter up.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Dromedary said:

    For all our talk on here, the Torygraph seems to have forgotten the basics of how the British state works when they say that "Theresa May will repeal the 1972 European Communities Act". She can't do any such thing.

    Neither Theresa May nor the government have the authority to trigger Article 50. Why? Because doing so would reverse a decision by Parliament, which can only be done by Parliament. Even if the leader of this pearls-and-hairstyle cackheap of a government, which probably won't last long, did send in an Article 50 letter, the Supreme Court would declare that doing so was an unlawful Act. And that, dear Leavers, is what counts. The Commission would have to swallow that and rip the letter up.


    LOL. Excellent troll.

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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    JohnO said:

    Speaking purely selfishly - as one does - my modest nest egg is almost 50 grand more scrummy and yummy since the referendum, mostly apparently due to sterling's depreciation.

    Down, you gorgeous, shameless pound, down, down, down.

    The trick is to spread your assets evenly between the places you need to spend/earn money in. In my case we have almost negative inflation here in Spain and although my monthly pension is converted from £s the bulk of my assets are spread out in banks and property. The latter is handy as even when it goes belly up it remains somewhere to lay your head at night!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Leavers trust Boris Johnson the most out of the three Brexiteers to get the best deal for Britain as it prepares to quit the EU, according to a poll.

    But the BMG Research survey also found Remainers trust him least, suggesting many have not forgiven Mr Johnson for his role in leading the Out campaign.

    The Foreign Secretary was backed by 38 per cent of Leave voters to ensure the most favourable Brexit agreement, followed by Brexit Secretary David Davis at 20 per cent and International Trade Secretary Liam Fox on 12 per cent.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-will-get-us-the-best-brexit-deal-say-leave-voters-a3360851.html
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    stodge said:


    I am 73 and cannot ever remember a worse opposition

    The Opposition from 2001 to 2005 was diabolical. Blair decided we were going to war in Iraq on the evidence of some dodgy dossier yet the Opposition leader was so gung ho he wanted to send in more troops.

    Then we had the spectacle of the Shadow Home Secretary being forced to support a policy on Identity Cards that he had publicly opposed.

    They even wanted to throw more money at the public services than Gordon Brown, would you believe ?

    One of their leaders kept trying to "turn up the volume" - it wasn't that nobody could hear him, nobody was listening but the party faithful kept standing up everytime he spoke like something out of a North Korean rally.

    Happy days...

    IDS 'laughing' during a John Humphrys interview was toe curling.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    taffys said:

    ''Doctors will have to repay thousands if they leave NHS too soon after training. The first consequence of their botched strike.''

    They are also ramping up the supply of new medics. Both long overdue.

    It will be 2028 before any of the new Docs are out of the Foundation programme, so not going to affect anyone for a long time yet.

    The 25% expansion of medical school intake is long overdue, but probably needs to be at least another 25% to allow for demography. It should keep me occupied for the next few years at the Medical School.

    And on the plus side it does mean that the Tories still plan to have a NHS in 2028....
    Is UCLAN Medical School accepting British students? Was told, on not very good authority, admittedly, that it wasn’t.
    I am not sure.

    The British taxpayer is getting ripped off if it thinks training a Doctor costs £250 000 over 5 years.

    It is possible to train in English speaking medical schools in Europe for as little as £5 000 per year, with no obligation to work anywhere. Even the Milan medical school costs about 20% of the quoted price in the UK.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    edited October 2016

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    But inflation is low because the economy is flat on its back. Inflation generated by the increasing cost of imports - which includes consumer goods many Brits consider essentials as well as components that go into our exports - is never going to be a good thing. The only upside will be a modest reduction in the real value of debt, more than cancelled out by the spending the government will be forced to make to keep the country out of recession, and a sustained period of inflation when the rest of the world isn't having any will simply drive the currency down further.
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Dromedary said:

    For all our talk on here, the Torygraph seems to have forgotten the basics of how the British state works when they say that "Theresa May will repeal the 1972 European Communities Act". She can't do any such thing.

    Neither Theresa May nor the government have the authority to trigger Article 50. Why? Because doing so would reverse a decision by Parliament, which can only be done by Parliament. Even if the leader of this pearls-and-hairstyle cackheap of a government, which probably won't last long, did send in an Article 50 letter, the Supreme Court would declare that doing so was an unlawful Act. And that, dear Leavers, is what counts. The Commission would have to swallow that and rip the letter up.


    LOL. Excellent troll.

    If it were, it wouldn't be so clever to feed me, would it, even in three words?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    Not for those consumers who are price sensitive - I thought the new Conservative party was supposed to care about those people.
  • Options
    felix said:

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    Not for those consumers who are price sensitive - I thought the new Conservative party was supposed to care about those people.
    Yes for those consumers as growth will mean wages rise faster than inflation. Our inflation target is 2%, not 0% for a reason. If you think we should have a 0% inflation target then argue for that, but I don't.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    PlatoSaid said:

    Leavers trust Boris Johnson the most out of the three Brexiteers to get the best deal for Britain as it prepares to quit the EU, according to a poll.

    But the BMG Research survey also found Remainers trust him least, suggesting many have not forgiven Mr Johnson for his role in leading the Out campaign.

    The Foreign Secretary was backed by 38 per cent of Leave voters to ensure the most favourable Brexit agreement, followed by Brexit Secretary David Davis at 20 per cent and International Trade Secretary Liam Fox on 12 per cent.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-will-get-us-the-best-brexit-deal-say-leave-voters-a3360851.html

    Boris is probably best for Britain as he may go for Brexit Lite, since he didn't want Leave to win anyway:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-wanted-to-lose-brexit-vote-to-become-prime-minister-sir-alan-duncan-claims_uk_57e3e2a4e4b004d4d8623ee2
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    PlatoSaid said:

    Leavers trust Boris Johnson the most out of the three Brexiteers to get the best deal for Britain as it prepares to quit the EU, according to a poll.

    But the BMG Research survey also found Remainers trust him least, suggesting many have not forgiven Mr Johnson for his role in leading the Out campaign.

    The Foreign Secretary was backed by 38 per cent of Leave voters to ensure the most favourable Brexit agreement, followed by Brexit Secretary David Davis at 20 per cent and International Trade Secretary Liam Fox on 12 per cent.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-will-get-us-the-best-brexit-deal-say-leave-voters-a3360851.html

    Jeez - they are pretty crap figures for all 3 and that is from Leave voters!
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Further proof Ruth Davidson is an absolute legend, who cares about the futures of ALL children, not just a select few.

    Ruth Davidson opposes new grammar schools in Scotland

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/ruth-davidson-opposes-new-grammar-schools-in-scotland/

    She goes on to set out her firm commitment to water continuing to be wet and gravity to keep working.
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    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    But inflation is low because the economy is flat on its back. Inflation generated by the increasing cost of imports - which includes consumer goods many Brits consider essentials as well as components that go into our exports - is never going to be a good thing. The only upside will be a modest reduction in the real value of debt, more than cancelled out by the spending the government will be forced to make to keep the country out of recession, and a sustained period of inflation when the rest of the world isn't having any will simply drive the currency down further.
    No it's not, inflation is low because in large part globally inflation is low. Even when we are growing at above 2% per annum inflation has been dangerously low.

    Improving inflation will improve our balance of trade and improve growth as we export more. Companies which grow because of exports will pay their employees who can spend more with local service economies etc who don't export but gain from improved confidence. Win, win.

    Or do you think we should have a 0% inflation target even at the cost of our trade?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016
    Dromedary said:

    For all our talk on here, the Torygraph seems to have forgotten the basics of how the British state works when they say that "Theresa May will repeal the 1972 European Communities Act". She can't do any such thing.

    Neither Theresa May nor the government have the authority to trigger Article 50 either. Why? Because doing so would reverse a decision by Parliament, which can only be done by Parliament. Only Parliament can give them that authority. Even if the leader of this pearls-and-hairstyle cackheap of a government, with its clown as a Foreign Secretary - a government which probably won't last long - did send in an Article 50 letter, the Supreme Court would declare that her act of doing so was unlawful. And that, dear Leavers, is what counts. The Commission would have to swallow that and rip the letter up.

    Quite some feat typing all that with one hand on the keyboard. What you have there is a big pile of steaming opinion, conjecture and supposition, a more erudite version of which is currently awaiting deliberation by the Supreme Court, where the august justices will decide if there is some merit in that argument, or if you are talking complete bollocks :wink:
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    felix said:

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    Not for those consumers who are price sensitive - I thought the new Conservative party was supposed to care about those people.
    Yes for those consumers as growth will mean wages rise faster than inflation. Our inflation target is 2%, not 0% for a reason. If you think we should have a 0% inflation target then argue for that, but I don't.
    Not much evidence of that over the past few years - and wage growth when it does come is rarely evenly spread. I accept the point about inflation of course but the continued pretence that an ever-sliding currency somehow reflects a healthy economy is risible pants as you well know.
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    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    Not for those consumers who are price sensitive - I thought the new Conservative party was supposed to care about those people.
    Yes for those consumers as growth will mean wages rise faster than inflation. Our inflation target is 2%, not 0% for a reason. If you think we should have a 0% inflation target then argue for that, but I don't.
    Not much evidence of that over the past few years - and wage growth when it does come is rarely evenly spread. I accept the point about inflation of course but the continued pretence that an ever-sliding currency somehow reflects a healthy economy is risible pants as you well know.
    I never said a falling currency reflects a healthy economy, that would be to put the cart before the horse. I said a falling currency is good for the economy given our combination of a high trade deficit and dangerously low inflation. If we had a trade surplus and rampant inflation then I'd be more panicked by a currency devaluation, but we don't.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960

    @Casino_Royale As you read through this thread, you can feel Britain shrinking: shrinking in economy size relative to its competitors, shrinking in influence, shrinking in its horizons. The Leavers sought this shrivelling and so must embrace it. We are reading of Leavers who are happy not to be taking foreign holidays.

    The country has not yet finished its descent to the bottom of this well.

    Time for a holiday in vibrant Italy?

    With each wriggling Remainer posting about how Parliament needs to do this (which delays or denies Brexit), the people did not mean a, b or c, it was so close that we must have the softest of Brexits, other EU countries are going to crucify us for having the temerity to say your federalism is not for us, I grow immensely proud of the general common sense and democratic impetus of the British people in voting Leave.

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    edited October 2016

    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    But inflation is low because the economy is flat on its back. Inflation generated by the increasing cost of imports - which includes consumer goods many Brits consider essentials as well as components that go into our exports - is never going to be a good thing. The only upside will be a modest reduction in the real value of debt, more than cancelled out by the spending the government will be forced to make to keep the country out of recession, and a sustained period of inflation when the rest of the world isn't having any will simply drive the currency down further.
    No it's not, inflation is low because in large part globally inflation is low. Even when we are growing at above 2% per annum inflation has been dangerously low.

    Improving inflation will improve our balance of trade and improve growth as we export more. Companies which grow because of exports will pay their employees who can spend more with local service economies etc who don't export but gain from improved confidence. Win, win.

    Or do you think we should have a 0% inflation target even at the cost of our trade?
    No, the point I am making is that inflation generated from internal pressures that indicate the domestic economy is growing is good (up to about 2%, when the problems start). Inflation generated solely from a price shock because everything we need from overseas suddenly becomes more expensive isn't in the same ballpark, at all. Go look back at the 1970s......
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    Indigo said:

    Dromedary said:

    For all our talk on here, the Torygraph seems to have forgotten the basics of how the British state works when they say that "Theresa May will repeal the 1972 European Communities Act". She can't do any such thing.

    Neither Theresa May nor the government have the authority to trigger Article 50 either. Why? Because doing so would reverse a decision by Parliament, which can only be done by Parliament. Only Parliament can give them that authority. Even if the leader of this pearls-and-hairstyle cackheap of a government, with its clown as a Foreign Secretary - a government which probably won't last long - did send in an Article 50 letter, the Supreme Court would declare that her act of doing so was unlawful. And that, dear Leavers, is what counts. The Commission would have to swallow that and rip the letter up.

    Quite some feat typing all that with one hand on the keyboard. What you have there is a big pile of steaming opinion, conjecture and supposition, a more erudite version of which is currently awaiting deliberation by the Supreme Court, where the august justices will decide if there is some merit in that argument, or if you are talking complete bollocks :wink:
    Has this court case gone straight to the Supreme Court? Normally cases go to the High Court and then get appealed by the loser and so on.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,294

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    During the 19th Century inflation in the UK was persistently negative. It didn't seem to do our economic performance any harm.

    People diagnose deflation as a disease, using Japan's sickness as its case zero. But Japan's problems were over-indebtedness and dreadful demographics. Deflation was an output, not the cause of its woes.
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    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    During the 19th Century inflation in the UK was persistently negative. It didn't seem to do our economic performance any harm.

    People diagnose deflation as a disease, using Japan's sickness as its case zero. But Japan's problems were over-indebtedness and dreadful demographics. Deflation was an output, not the cause of its woes.
    Thankfully we're not facing the dangers of deflation with a lot of debt ourselves then ... oh wait ... ;)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,294

    Improving inflation will improve our balance of trade

    I'd be intrigued to see the empirical evidence of that.

    In fact, I suspect that if you put long term inflation on one axis of a chart, and long term real export growth on another, you'd find a pretty clear negative correlation between developed nations.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Cameron Yarde Jnr
    Britain will be fastest growing G7 economy this year, says IMF

    https://t.co/wn7g41wYFe

    Feel that butt hurt
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Indigo said:

    Dromedary said:

    For all our talk on here, the Torygraph seems to have forgotten the basics of how the British state works when they say that "Theresa May will repeal the 1972 European Communities Act". She can't do any such thing.

    Neither Theresa May nor the government have the authority to trigger Article 50 either. Why? Because doing so would reverse a decision by Parliament, which can only be done by Parliament. Only Parliament can give them that authority. Even if the leader of this pearls-and-hairstyle cackheap of a government, with its clown as a Foreign Secretary - a government which probably won't last long - did send in an Article 50 letter, the Supreme Court would declare that her act of doing so was unlawful. And that, dear Leavers, is what counts. The Commission would have to swallow that and rip the letter up.

    Quite some feat typing all that with one hand on the keyboard. What you have there is a big pile of steaming opinion, conjecture and supposition, a more erudite version of which is currently awaiting deliberation by the Supreme Court, where the august justices will decide if there is some merit in that argument, or if you are talking complete bollocks :wink:
    Nonetheless, the UK went into the EC through an Act of Parliament. It was not done by executive order. Therefore, Britain can exit only by a similar Act.

    I am not aware of any other Act which confers the PM with that authority. The Royal Prerogative applies in very special circumstances. You cannot argue that we have to leave the EU all of a sudden.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    No it's not, inflation is low because in large part globally inflation is low. Even when we are growing at above 2% per annum inflation has been dangerously low.

    Improving inflation will improve our balance of trade and improve growth as we export more. Companies which grow because of exports will pay their employees who can spend more with local service economies etc who don't export but gain from improved confidence. Win, win.

    Or do you think we should have a 0% inflation target even at the cost of our trade?

    No, the point I am making is that inflation generated from internal pressures that indicate the domestic economy is growing is good. Inflation generated solely from a price shock because everything we need from overseas suddenly becomes more expensive isn't in the same ballpark, at all. Go look back at the 1970s......
    Inflation in the UK was over 5% already BEFORE the oil price shock and reached a peak of nearly 25% ... if that was the case in the UK then yes any further inflation would be terrible. Instead we are facing a modest rise from being too low and even worst case scenarios predict inflation remaining within target range.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    During the 19th Century inflation in the UK was persistently negative. It didn't seem to do our economic performance any harm.

    People diagnose deflation as a disease, using Japan's sickness as its case zero. But Japan's problems were over-indebtedness and dreadful demographics. Deflation was an output, not the cause of its woes.
    Well said sir.

    Have you ever considered a career in finance and economic analysis? :)

    More seriously, did you see the posts on alphaville (Izabella Kaminski) a couple of years back about the new normal being almost zero interest rates and low/no inflation?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,294

    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    During the 19th Century inflation in the UK was persistently negative. It didn't seem to do our economic performance any harm.

    People diagnose deflation as a disease, using Japan's sickness as its case zero. But Japan's problems were over-indebtedness and dreadful demographics. Deflation was an output, not the cause of its woes.
    Thankfully we're not facing the dangers of deflation with a lot of debt ourselves then ... oh wait ... ;)
    I don't think we should worry about it too much!

    Personally, I think negative interest rates distort investment decisions, and would prefer we put a floor at (say) 1.5 or 2%. But I am unusual in that way.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Improving inflation will improve our balance of trade

    I'd be intrigued to see the empirical evidence of that.

    In fact, I suspect that if you put long term inflation on one axis of a chart, and long term real export growth on another, you'd find a pretty clear negative correlation between developed nations.
    Taken out of context, I meant [a fall in sterling] improving inflation will improve our balance of trade. Obviously could have phrased it better but in the conversation I thought it was clear sorry.

    As for your graph I suspect you would too but I didn't say higher inflation, I said improved inflation. By which I mean closer to target, if its too high then cutting inflation is improving it, if it's too low then a modest boost is improving it.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    PlatoSaid said:

    Cameron Yarde Jnr
    Britain will be fastest growing G7 economy this year, says IMF

    https://t.co/wn7g41wYFe

    Feel that butt hurt

    Also, the fastest sliding economy. Growth projected at 1.1% which would be even worse in 2018.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    I for one am loving all the Leavers telling themselves this morning that the pound in their pockets or purses or banks have not been devalued.

    Of course it's been devalued. The question debated is whether it's a good or bad thing.

    Exports it is good.
    Inflation it is good.
    Inward tourism it is good.
    For tourists going out it is bad.

    As someone who has no foreign holidays planned in the foreseeable future I see it as good so far.
    The most important negative you have missed - the increased cost of all imported goods. A country which relies on trade actually needs a relatively stable ER above all else. What worries me are those who keep saying it doesn't matter at any level so long as we have Brexit :)
    I covered that in inflation. Currently inflation is dangerously low. Rising costs of imports will provide a modest boost to inflation which is a good thing.
    During the 19th Century inflation in the UK was persistently negative. It didn't seem to do our economic performance any harm.

    People diagnose deflation as a disease, using Japan's sickness as its case zero. But Japan's problems were over-indebtedness and dreadful demographics. Deflation was an output, not the cause of its woes.
    Thankfully we're not facing the dangers of deflation with a lot of debt ourselves then ... oh wait ... ;)
    I don't think we should worry about it too much!

    Personally, I think negative interest rates distort investment decisions, and would prefer we put a floor at (say) 1.5 or 2%. But I am unusual in that way.
    I think in 10 years that is going to be recognised as the new doctrine. The current policy of ultra loose monetary policy is yielding no gain.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,196
    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Never were Grammar Schools in Scotland but I did go to the one probably nearest in Berwick on Tweed

    Ummm

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paisley_Grammar_School

    Andrew Neil most prominent Alum right now
    I was going to be pedantic and point this out ( I think there are about a dozen 'Grammar Schools' in Scotland) but they are non-selective so I thought I'd let it past.

    The other major difference between Scotland and England of course is the lack of fee paying schools.
    You being funny?
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    Indigo said:

    Dromedary said:

    For all our talk on here, the Torygraph seems to have forgotten the basics of how the British state works when they say that "Theresa May will repeal the 1972 European Communities Act". She can't do any such thing.

    Neither Theresa May nor the government have the authority to trigger Article 50 either. Why? Because doing so would reverse a decision by Parliament, which can only be done by Parliament. Only Parliament can give them that authority. Even if the leader of this pearls-and-hairstyle cackheap of a government, with its clown as a Foreign Secretary - a government which probably won't last long - did send in an Article 50 letter, the Supreme Court would declare that her act of doing so was unlawful. And that, dear Leavers, is what counts. The Commission would have to swallow that and rip the letter up.

    Quite some feat typing all that with one hand on the keyboard. What you have there is a big pile of steaming opinion, conjecture and supposition, a more erudite version of which is currently awaiting deliberation by the Supreme Court, where the august justices will decide if there is some merit in that argument, or if you are talking complete bollocks :wink:
    Nonetheless, the UK went into the EC through an Act of Parliament. It was not done by executive order. Therefore, Britain can exit only by a similar Act.

    I am not aware of any other Act which confers the PM with that authority. The Royal Prerogative applies in very special circumstances. You cannot argue that we have to leave the EU all of a sudden.
    An Act will go through Parliament to repeal the 72 Act that's already been said. Invoking Article 50 doesn't repeal the 72 Act.

    It does lead to an interesting question as to what would happen if we left the EU via Article 50 and two years passing but didn't repeal the 72 Act? Presumably the ECJ and EU law would still have primacy (as conferred by the 72 Act) even though we were no longer members.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    edited October 2016
    The biggest problem the government faces is to explain why its economic policy over the past six years has been to reduce the deficit but suddenly, now, the immense challenges we face from Brexit make this unnecessary.
This discussion has been closed.