Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
Where's the £350million/week, the NHS needs it now!
With that level of debate I can't believe remain lost.
But that was Leave`s strongest argument, Mr TGOHF.
The whole Referendum was a nonsense from beginning to end. Nobody ought to take any notice of it, and Mrs May ought to sack her three goons immediately. Save a lot of time and money.
Remain put to bed the theory that you can patronise the voters to death and win even if your case is rubbish.
Voters can smell the wind beneath the spin and headlines - that's why leave won (and Sindy failed). Ferk all to do with NHS cash.
Remain had a terrible hand - and played it badly. That is not the voters fault.
Even Burnham wouldn't have come up with bollox like we need to promote tolerance of beliefs and ideas even if we strongly disapprove of them Like ISIS and Boko Haram presumably ?
"A year ago today, I remember being very nervous indeed. Along with hundreds of thousands of people, I held my breath to find out whether or not the impossible had happened, whether Jeremy Corbyn – a role model to so many of the new intake of Labour MPs, and a brilliant, principled politician who looked set to be locked out of power forever – was about to become leader of the Labour party."
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Hopefully it is enough to get Gove back into Mrs. May's good graces and he takes over the Brexit brief. Davis is proving to be the disappointment that many predicted.
Fox is the disappointment. He has now realised that his trade deals are going to come to nothing, and he has lined up "fat" "lazy" British business to take the blame.
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Hopefully it is enough to get Gove back into Mrs. May's good graces and he takes over the Brexit brief. Davis is proving to be the disappointment that many predicted.
Fox is the disappointment. He has now realised that his trade deals are going to come to nothing, and he has lined up "fat" "lazy" British business to take the blame.
I'm assuming you haven't read what he actually said.
The Guardian didn't read what he actually said, most left-leaning people are regurgitating their synthetic outrage about something he didn't say. Plus ce la change.
It is objectively the case that only 11 percent of British businesses export anything, and our exports expressed as a percentage of GDP are the lowest in Europe, and half the average.
This is what he actually said, verbatim: In a recording of the event published in The Times, Dr Fox is heard saying: "This country is not the free-trading nation that it once was. We have become too lazy, and too fat on our successes in previous generations."
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Morgan looks utterly stupid this morning.
Greening for first cabinet exit?
I heard Liz Truss on the radio last week, giggling away in front of a Select Committee. Out of her depth did not come even close to describing it. Just embarrassing.
She's a lightweight. I was astonished May gave her that job.
May has made a few dodgy appointments, Truss clearly one of them. But counting the number of obvious duffers in Cabinet, I reckon she's about on par with Cameron - no obvious deterioration.
At least 3 of the top 4 cleverest men in the Conservative Party, Cameron, Osborne and Gove, are all on the back benches. I think it is hard to argue that the quality of appointments has been maintained. There is just not enough talent in UK politics to waste like this.
Where's the £350million/week, the NHS needs it now!
With that level of debate I can't believe remain lost.
But that was Leave`s strongest argument, Mr TGOHF.
The whole Referendum was a nonsense from beginning to end. Nobody ought to take any notice of it, and Mrs May ought to sack her three goons immediately. Save a lot of time and money.
Remain put to bed the theory that you can patronise the voters to death and win even if your case is rubbish. Voters can smell the wind beneath the spin and headlines - that's why leave won (and Sindy failed). Ferk all to do with NHS cash. Remain had a terrible hand - and played it badly. That is not the voters fault.
Indeed, Mr TGOHF. All the fault of the Conservative leadership.
That said, we did (do still?) have a very much better deal out of the EU than we are likely to end up with at the hands of Mrs May`s three goons.
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Morgan looks utterly stupid this morning.
Indeed. It seems to me that any school which is free of LEA control and wants to enforce some discipline and standards is likely to be a good school. Call them grammars or free schools or academies or charter schools (in the USA) or whatever - the name is immaterial. Morgan seems to have missed this key point. It's also true that having a range of different schools, some catering to the more academic some to the more vocational makes good sense:
Aren't we trying to emulate German educational outcomes and employment stats? Their school system is highly graded.
That is probably true but calling schools Grammar Schools is like walking around a petrol depot with lit matches. It would have been so easy to avoid most of the grief by just using a different word. Madness.
It wouldnt have had half the resonance or "red meat" value with a different name. This has all the hallmarks of picking a popular fight before the BrExit fight starts in earnest. Possibly as a pretext to doing something about the House of Lords without it looking like it is linked to BrExit.
Other way round imo. It's to distract backbenchers while watering down Brexit. Theresa May spent the last six years letting immigration spin out of control so it is hardly likely she knows how to control it now -- indeed, what she does know is why simplistic solutions will not work, and has already ruled out points. The Prime Minister also will be keen to protect trade and the City. Her Brexit goal must involve something that looks an awful lot like the status quo.
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Morgan looks utterly stupid this morning.
Indeed. It seems to me that any school which is free of LEA control and wants to enforce some discipline and standards is likely to be a good school. Call them grammars or free schools or academies or charter schools (in the USA) or whatever - the name is immaterial. Morgan seems to have missed this key point. It's also true that having a range of different schools, some catering to the more academic some to the more vocational makes good sense:
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
Where's the £350million/week, the NHS needs it now!
A short anecdote:
I took my father into hospital for a scan this weekend and ended up in conversation with a nurse of South Asian heritage and Midlands accent. She brought up the topic of Brexit, saying she'd voted Leave because the EU was such a waste of money and we needed to get out. She couldn't understand why they don't just get on with it since the NHS could really, really do with the money at the moment.
What does "we" refer to, in this context? Who does Liam Fox mean when he says "we" have become too lazy?
We the British people, who have spent far to long expecting the world to owe us a living. Our productivity is lamentable both per hour and per dollar and yet we look aghast every time a global business decides to move their facilities to another country. We dont make anything close to the money we need to support our current lifestyle, and do so on the back of massive government and private borrowing, if it's not going to end badly we need to make a lot more, and export a lot more, at currently we don't, the alternative is to make do with a lot less.
What does "we" refer to, in this context? Who does Liam Fox mean when he says "we" have become too lazy?
We the British people, who have spent far to long expecting the world to owe us a living. Our productivity is lamentable both per hour and per dollar and yet we look aghast every time a global business decides to move their facilities to another country. We dont make anything close to the money we need to support our current lifestyle, and do so on the back of massive government and private borrowing, if it's not going to end badly we need to make a lot more, and export a lot more, at currently we don't, the alternative is to make do with a lot less.
Not British business then, but British people? Surely that is an even dafter thing for Fox to have said.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
Where's the £350million/week, the NHS needs it now!
A short anecdote:
I took my father into hospital for a scan this weekend and ended up in conversation with a nurse of South Asian heritage and Midlands accent. She brought up the topic of Brexit, saying she'd voted Leave because the EU was such a waste of money and we needed to get out. She couldn't understand why they don't just get on with it since the NHS could really, really do with the money at the moment.
We can't just get on with it, because it is a hugely complex exercise, quite possibly overwhelmingly so. After 40 years of ever closer trading and other links, it is going to take years to get out. If we ever actually do.
This anecdote illustrates why it should never have been put to a referendum vote.
What does "we" refer to, in this context? Who does Liam Fox mean when he says "we" have become too lazy?
We the British people, who have spent far to long expecting the world to owe us a living. Our productivity is lamentable both per hour and per dollar and yet we look aghast every time a global business decides to move their facilities to another country. We dont make anything close to the money we need to support our current lifestyle, and do so on the back of massive government and private borrowing, if it's not going to end badly we need to make a lot more, and export a lot more, at currently we don't, the alternative is to make do with a lot less.
Not British business then, but British people? Surely that is an even dafter thing for Fox to have said.
Possibly a too refreshingly frank for the electorate I will agree, perhaps the public will eventually get a taste for politicians telling them the truth
I'm levelled up on the main market at the moment, I think the odds are about right.
My last move was to lay Trump rather than back Clinton though, which I'm happy with this morning.
I'm at work who block bookmakers including Betfair so I'm really hoping for no dramatic moves today as my book, while green, is quite skewed at the moment.
"A year ago today, I remember being very nervous indeed. Along with hundreds of thousands of people, I held my breath to find out whether or not the impossible had happened, whether Jeremy Corbyn – a role model to so many of the new intake of Labour MPs, and a brilliant, principled politician who looked set to be locked out of power forever – was about to become leader of the Labour party."
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Hopefully it is enough to get Gove back into Mrs. May's good graces and he takes over the Brexit brief. Davis is proving to be the disappointment that many predicted.
Fox is the disappointment. He has now realised that his trade deals are going to come to nothing, and he has lined up "fat" "lazy" British business to take the blame.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
Just so you know, the Illuminati is currently plotting a (small) global war, in which a few tens of millions will be killed. The purpose of this will be to demonstrate to the lumpen-proletariat that supranational organisations (the EU, NAFTA, the UN) are the only balwark against further war and chaos.
This is the true reason behind Hillary's "stumble" - it was a necessary part of manipulating the media and allowing Donald to ascend. And thus provide the catalyst for war.
What does "we" refer to, in this context? Who does Liam Fox mean when he says "we" have become too lazy?
We the British people, who have spent far to long expecting the world to owe us a living. Our productivity is lamentable both per hour and per dollar and yet we look aghast every time a global business decides to move their facilities to another country. We dont make anything close to the money we need to support our current lifestyle, and do so on the back of massive government and private borrowing, if it's not going to end badly we need to make a lot more, and export a lot more, at currently we don't, the alternative is to make do with a lot less.
Not British business then, but British people? Surely that is an even dafter thing for Fox to have said.
Given the desire for people in this country to get rich on buy to let, I'd suggest Fox has it about right.
Where's the £350million/week, the NHS needs it now!
With that level of debate I can't believe remain lost.
But that was Leave`s strongest argument, Mr TGOHF.
The whole Referendum was a nonsense from beginning to end. Nobody ought to take any notice of it, and Mrs May ought to sack her three goons immediately. Save a lot of time and money.
Remain put to bed the theory that you can patronise the voters to death and win even if your case is rubbish. Voters can smell the wind beneath the spin and headlines - that's why leave won (and Sindy failed). Ferk all to do with NHS cash. Remain had a terrible hand - and played it badly. That is not the voters fault.
Indeed, Mr TGOHF. All the fault of the Conservative leadership.
That said, we did (do still?) have a very much better deal out of the EU than we are likely to end up with at the hands of Mrs May`s three goons.
But also a much better deal than we would have been left with if we'd Remained. The status quo was not an option, that's not the least reason that Leave won.
Betfair market has HC down from a 78% chance to a 63% chance.
Under reaction ?
A drop of 15% is about right for the incident but she was and remains too short.
What's the weather forecast for North America ? An autumnal cold snap might thin the presidential field.
I see Biden is the third favourite, ahead of Bernie.
Johnson, at 410, must surely be worth a pop in spite of Aleppo. If he gets into the debates, and he now might get his 15%, his odds will surely shorten.
Yes, Johnson is huge value at 410. His name is actually on the ballot papers.
Betfair's 'Next President' market is on the election result in November, not who takes the oath in January.
"A year ago today, I remember being very nervous indeed. Along with hundreds of thousands of people, I held my breath to find out whether or not the impossible had happened, whether Jeremy Corbyn – a role model to so many of the new intake of Labour MPs, and a brilliant, principled politician who looked set to be locked out of power forever – was about to become leader of the Labour party."
''Morgan was utterly housetrained at the Department of Education, all the signs are she is still singing from their civil service hymn sheet after losing her job. '
Either that or Morgan is, in fact, a socialist who has no business being in the conservative party, let alone representing it as an MP.
Andrew Neil The DNC rules give no guidance as to who would have preference if Mrs Clinton drops out. Sanders, Biden, Kaine would all be in running.
I thought we had established yesterday that the ballots have been printed and people are voting. Therefore Tim Kaine would be the candidate, no ifs or buts.
MPs get early sight of boundaries tomorrow says PA
I'll be interested to see how they deal with Wales. The proposals I'd seen seemed to involve (a) some very odd shaped constituencies, and (b) some that took no account of geographical features, or the existence of towns.
''Sanders, Biden, Kaine would all be in running. ''
Goodness knows what the internal polling is telling the Dems if they are already at this stage.
What precisely nobody is discussing is the possibility that the DNC gets beaten by Trump and subsequently turns into what the left in Britain has turned into.
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Morgan looks utterly stupid this morning.
Indeed. It seems to me that any school which is free of LEA control and wants to enforce some discipline and standards is likely to be a good school. Call them grammars or free schools or academies or charter schools (in the USA) or whatever - the name is immaterial. Morgan seems to have missed this key point. It's also true that having a range of different schools, some catering to the more academic some to the more vocational makes good sense:
Aren't we trying to emulate German educational outcomes and employment stats? Their school system is highly graded.
The don't have the equivalent of the 11 plus. Parents choose which stream to send their children to.
We did this to death on Friday. Essentially some states do not have an entrance test for the academic schools but the primary school attainment plus a recommendation is used to inform parent choice. In at least one state, Bavaria, there is an equivalent of the 11+.
Edited extra bit. The first method I mentioned is also that used by the old Inner London Education Authority in the 1960s to select for grammar schools, though they also used a interview of the child with parents by the head teacher.
Andrew Neil The DNC rules give no guidance as to who would have preference if Mrs Clinton drops out. Sanders, Biden, Kaine would all be in running.
I thought we had established yesterday that the ballots have been printed and people are voting. Therefore Tim Kaine would be the candidate, no ifs or buts.
Please please please please please let it be Kaine.
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Hopefully it is enough to get Gove back into Mrs. May's good graces and he takes over the Brexit brief. Davis is proving to be the disappointment that many predicted.
Fox is the disappointment. He has now realised that his trade deals are going to come to nothing, and he has lined up "fat" "lazy" British business to take the blame.
I'm assuming you haven't read what he actually said.
It is objectively the case that only 11 percent of British businesses export anything, and our exports expressed as a percentage of GDP are the lowest in Europe, and half the average.
But by value per head we are exporting above the G7 average and above France. Europe has high exports as percentage of GDP because there is so much cross-border trade but in the UK our size means most of that happens internally so we don't see it.
''Sanders, Biden, Kaine would all be in running. ''
Goodness knows what the internal polling is telling the Dems if they are already at this stage.
What precisely nobody is discussing is the possibility that the DNC gets beaten by Trump and subsequently turns into what the left in Britain has turned into.
While the US gets a President who doesn't believe in free trade, and isn't particularly keen on NATO.
''Sanders, Biden, Kaine would all be in running. ''
Goodness knows what the internal polling is telling the Dems if they are already at this stage.
What precisely nobody is discussing is the possibility that the DNC gets beaten by Trump and subsequently turns into what the left in Britain has turned into.
While the US gets a President who doesn't believe in free trade, and isn't particularly keen on NATO.
Goodness: I wish Michael Bloomberg had stood now.
Doesn't have the balls. Our last hope is for Johnson to hit 15% a few times and get included in the debates, or for Hillary to withdraw and for Kaine to run and beat Trump (which he would).
Betfair market has HC down from a 78% chance to a 63% chance.
Under reaction ?
A drop of 15% is about right for the incident but she was and remains too short.
What's the weather forecast for North America ? An autumnal cold snap might thin the presidential field.
I see Biden is the third favourite, ahead of Bernie.
Johnson, at 410, must surely be worth a pop in spite of Aleppo. If he gets into the debates, and he now might get his 15%, his odds will surely shorten.
Yes, Johnson is huge value at 410. His name is actually on the ballot papers.
Betfair's 'Next President' market is on the election result in November, not who takes the oath in January.
I'm liking my £5 on Kaine @ 1000.0 this morning tbh.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
Just so you know, the Illuminati is currently plotting a (small) global war, in which a few tens of millions will be killed. The purpose of this will be to demonstrate to the lumpen-proletariat that supranational organisations (the EU, NAFTA, the UN) are the only balwark against further war and chaos.
This is the true reason behind Hillary's "stumble" - it was a necessary part of manipulating the media and allowing Donald to ascend. And thus provide the catalyst for war.
Do you not need to track us all down and kill us now? Just as well you don't know our real identities....ah.
Andrew Neil The DNC rules give no guidance as to who would have preference if Mrs Clinton drops out. Sanders, Biden, Kaine would all be in running.
I thought we had established yesterday that the ballots have been printed and people are voting. Therefore Tim Kaine would be the candidate, no ifs or buts.
Would he get to choose a vice vice president prior to the vote ?
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Hopefully it is enough to get Gove back into Mrs. May's good graces and he takes over the Brexit brief. Davis is proving to be the disappointment that many predicted.
Fox is the disappointment. He has now realised that his trade deals are going to come to nothing, and he has lined up "fat" "lazy" British business to take the blame.
I'm assuming you haven't read what he actually said.
It is objectively the case that only 11 percent of British businesses export anything, and our exports expressed as a percentage of GDP are the lowest in Europe, and half the average.
But by value per head we are exporting above the G7 average and above France. Europe has high exports as percentage of GDP because there is so much cross-border trade but in the UK our size means most of that happens internally so we don't see it.
I'm not convinced those numbers are correct. Exports as a percent of GDP for the UK are the lowest of any developed country with a population of 25 - 75m.
(As a rule, the larger your country, the smaller your exports are, as you have a bigger internal market. The US and China both have huge, continent wide economies, and Japan is twice the size of the UK.)
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
Andrew Neil The DNC rules give no guidance as to who would have preference if Mrs Clinton drops out. Sanders, Biden, Kaine would all be in running.
I thought we had established yesterday that the ballots have been printed and people are voting. Therefore Tim Kaine would be the candidate, no ifs or buts.
Clinton is the candidate, that's what we discussed
''Sanders, Biden, Kaine would all be in running. ''
Goodness knows what the internal polling is telling the Dems if they are already at this stage.
What precisely nobody is discussing is the possibility that the DNC gets beaten by Trump and subsequently turns into what the left in Britain has turned into.
While the US gets a President who doesn't believe in free trade, and isn't particularly keen on NATO.
Goodness: I wish Michael Bloomberg had stood now.
He had plenty of opportunity, as well as much urging to stand - clearly he didn't want it enough.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
Just so you know, the Illuminati is currently plotting a (small) global war, in which a few tens of millions will be killed. The purpose of this will be to demonstrate to the lumpen-proletariat that supranational organisations (the EU, NAFTA, the UN) are the only balwark against further war and chaos.
This is the true reason behind Hillary's "stumble" - it was a necessary part of manipulating the media and allowing Donald to ascend. And thus provide the catalystexcuse for war.
Nearly right. Corrected the error for you. If you want to work for Illuminati Communications Inc you need to improve your dictation skills
''Would he get to choose a vice vice president prior to the vote ?''
If the dems change horses midstream it will surely reflect extremely badly on their judgement. They are the party that served up Clinton to the US electorate in the first place.
Betfair market has HC down from a 78% chance to a 63% chance.
Under reaction ?
A drop of 15% is about right for the incident but she was and remains too short.
What's the weather forecast for North America ? An autumnal cold snap might thin the presidential field.
I see Biden is the third favourite, ahead of Bernie.
Johnson, at 410, must surely be worth a pop in spite of Aleppo. If he gets into the debates, and he now might get his 15%, his odds will surely shorten.
Yes, Johnson is huge value at 410. His name is actually on the ballot papers.
Betfair's 'Next President' market is on the election result in November, not who takes the oath in January.
I'm liking my £5 on Kaine @ 1000.0 this morning tbh.
Looking like an excellent bet at the moment, his price is into 110.
''Would he get to choose a vice vice president prior to the vote ?''
If the dems change horses midstream it will surely reflect extremely badly on their judgement. They are the party that served up Clinton to the US electorate in the first place.
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
Does anyone think there's any chance Betfair might settle this market (rather than void it) in favour of someone who's name isn't on the ballot papers? Currently an 8% underround if looking at those actually nominated.
"This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2016 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
"This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2016. If more than one election takes place in 2016, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
"If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
"Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Hopefully it is enough to get Gove back into Mrs. May's good graces and he takes over the Brexit brief. Davis is proving to be the disappointment that many predicted.
Fox is the disappointment. He has now realised that his trade deals are going to come to nothing, and he has lined up "fat" "lazy" British business to take the blame.
I'm assuming you haven't read what he actually said.
It is objectively the case that only 11 percent of British businesses export anything, and our exports expressed as a percentage of GDP are the lowest in Europe, and half the average.
But by value per head we are exporting above the G7 average and above France. Europe has high exports as percentage of GDP because there is so much cross-border trade but in the UK our size means most of that happens internally so we don't see it.
I'm not convinced those numbers are correct. Exports as a percent of GDP for the UK are the lowest of any developed country with a population of 25 - 75m.
(As a rule, the larger your country, the smaller your exports are, as you have a bigger internal market. The US and China both have huge, continent wide economies, and Japan is twice the size of the UK.)
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
I'm basing this off a tweet by Andrew Sentence
"Liam Fox may want to check the facts about UK exports - 3rd highest exports/head in G7 & 27% above G7 average"
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
Just so you know, the Illuminati is currently plotting a (small) global war, in which a few tens of millions will be killed. The purpose of this will be to demonstrate to the lumpen-proletariat that supranational organisations (the EU, NAFTA, the UN) are the only balwark against further war and chaos.
This is the true reason behind Hillary's "stumble" - it was a necessary part of manipulating the media and allowing Donald to ascend. And thus provide the catalystexcuse for war.
Nearly right. Corrected the error for you. If you want to work for Illuminati Communications Inc you need to improve your dictation skills
Betfair market has HC down from a 78% chance to a 63% chance.
Under reaction ?
A drop of 15% is about right for the incident but she was and remains too short.
What's the weather forecast for North America ? An autumnal cold snap might thin the presidential field.
I see Biden is the third favourite, ahead of Bernie.
Johnson, at 410, must surely be worth a pop in spite of Aleppo. If he gets into the debates, and he now might get his 15%, his odds will surely shorten.
Yes, Johnson is huge value at 410. His name is actually on the ballot papers.
Betfair's 'Next President' market is on the election result in November, not who takes the oath in January.
I'm liking my £5 on Kaine @ 1000.0 this morning tbh.
Looking like an excellent bet at the moment, his price is into 110.
I was waiting for Gove to show his hand, and that's quite significant. Given he might have been the nucleus around which a backbench rebellion (dominated by dillusioned Cameroons) could have formed. It contrasts starkly with Morgan.
May will be grateful.
Hopefully it is enough to get Gove back into Mrs. May's good graces and he takes over the Brexit brief. Davis is proving to be the disappointment that many predicted.
Fox is the disappointment. He has now realised that his trade deals are going to come to nothing, and he has lined up "fat" "lazy" British business to take the blame.
I'm assuming you haven't read what he actually said.
It is objectively the case that only 11 percent of British businesses export anything, and our exports expressed as a percentage of GDP are the lowest in Europe, and half the average.
But by value per head we are exporting above the G7 average and above France. Europe has high exports as percentage of GDP because there is so much cross-border trade but in the UK our size means most of that happens internally so we don't see it.
I'm not convinced those numbers are correct. Exports as a percent of GDP for the UK are the lowest of any developed country with a population of 25 - 75m.
(As a rule, the larger your country, the smaller your exports are, as you have a bigger internal market. The US and China both have huge, continent wide economies, and Japan is twice the size of the UK.)
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
Isn't that at least in part because domestic demand has grown quicker than demand in our trading partners int he EU?
''Would he get to choose a vice vice president prior to the vote ?''
If the dems change horses midstream it will surely reflect extremely badly on their judgement. They are the party that served up Clinton to the US electorate in the first place.
Better to stick with a mistake?
There is no way Clinton will bow whilst she is still breathing. And possibly not even if she wasn't.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
Just so you know, the Illuminati is currently plotting a (small) global war, in which a few tens of millions will be killed. The purpose of this will be to demonstrate to the lumpen-proletariat that supranational organisations (the EU, NAFTA, the UN) are the only balwark against further war and chaos.
This is the true reason behind Hillary's "stumble" - it was a necessary part of manipulating the media and allowing Donald to ascend. And thus provide the catalystexcuse for war.
Nearly right. Corrected the error for you. If you want to work for Illuminati Communications Inc you need to improve your dictation skills
I see that many PBers are sh*tting verbal bricks on the likelyhood of The Donald becoming POTUS. I'm laughing out loud.
Agree. The US political system has ossified around lookalike establishments on both sides, relatively safe in their gerrymandered fortresses. A Donald or a Saunders or a Cruz might blow that cosy self-serving elite away. He might be a shit president but that doesn't mean it's a bad thing overall. How crap was Obama!
One thing that struck me was I wondered who the woman was next to Clinton throughout her brief visit to ceremony yesterday (and the woman holding Clinton up before being dragged into the van)...reverse google search, turns out to be her her personal physician, not secret service.
Doesn't mean any conspiracy theorist stuff, but it means that her team obviously thought she was so ill she needed her doctor by her side throughout her outing in public. Did the press not think that was odd at the time? Clearly not.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
Just so you know, the Illuminati is currently plotting a (small) global war, in which a few tens of millions will be killed. The purpose of this will be to demonstrate to the lumpen-proletariat that supranational organisations (the EU, NAFTA, the UN) are the only balwark against further war and chaos.
This is the true reason behind Hillary's "stumble" - it was a necessary part of manipulating the media and allowing Donald to ascend. And thus provide the catalystexcuse for war.
Nearly right. Corrected the error for you. If you want to work for Illuminati Communications Inc you need to improve your dictation skills
We in the Illuminati would say casus belli.
Not really in this case. No one is going to attack America as a result of Trump being election (which would be the casus belli). But everyone knows that Trump has an itchy trigger finger - who know what will happen on his watch
''Would he get to choose a vice vice president prior to the vote ?''
If the dems change horses midstream it will surely reflect extremely badly on their judgement. They are the party that served up Clinton to the US electorate in the first place.
Better to stick with a mistake?
There is no way Clinton will bow whilst she is still breathing. And possibly not even if she wasn't.
At this rate, the last debate will be a seance.
Shermans name was on the ballot - and Twitter tells me he died 6 days before the result.
''Sanders, Biden, Kaine would all be in running. ''
Goodness knows what the internal polling is telling the Dems if they are already at this stage.
What precisely nobody is discussing is the possibility that the DNC gets beaten by Trump and subsequently turns into what the left in Britain has turned into.
While the US gets a President who doesn't believe in free trade, and isn't particularly keen on NATO.
Goodness: I wish Michael Bloomberg had stood now.
He had plenty of opportunity, as well as much urging to stand - clearly he didn't want it enough.
Bloomberg did not have a big enough base of support to beat Trump or Hillary and is the epitome of the status quo
''A Donald or a Saunders or a Cruz might blow that cosy self-serving elite away. He might be a shit president but that doesn't mean it's a bad thing overall. How crap was Obama! ''
Absolutely. And I think many are weighing up the positive impact something like that might have, as against the potential downside - which as Mr RCS points out is growth destroying protectionism.
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
That's a typically excellent article from Mr Worstall.
However, it is important that one's economy balances over time. When you run a persistent current account surplus, your country accumulates foreign assets. So, China owns gazillions of US government bonds, etc. Likewise, when you run a persistent current account deficit, you run up foreign liabilities.
We used to - as recently as the mid 1980s - to have a very big net financial assets position in the UK. Simply, more money was remitted to the UK than we remitted out. This enabled us to live beyond our means for a long time.
In 30 years, we've gone from a net 60% of GDP foreign assets position, to a negative 40%. At a 7% current account deficit, that'll be more than 60% in three years time. And it gets worse every day. When a Singaporean investor buys a flat in London and rents it out, he puts money in now (which helps cover our current account deficit this year...), but the stream of rental payments back to Singapore worsens our current account in future years.
We are not at crisis point, but we do not have an infinite set of assets in the UK to sell. Ultimately, we will need to either (a) meaningfully increase the quantity of our exports, or (b) reduce our consumption - almost certainly through a dramatic increase in the UK's negligible savings rate.
''Would he get to choose a vice vice president prior to the vote ?''
If the dems change horses midstream it will surely reflect extremely badly on their judgement. They are the party that served up Clinton to the US electorate in the first place.
Kaine v Trump would be a landslide for the Democrat. Literally anyone else from either party beats Donald or Hillary.
Short of death Hillary will keep going until election day, she has been preparing her whole life for this. As of today she leads in the RCP 4 way average by 2.1%, the same margin by which Carter beat Ford in 1976
Looking like an excellent bet at the moment, his price is into 110.
I'm on that too at 1000, but I'm struggling to see how it could actually materialise. The rules and deadlines for getting on to the ballot vary from state to state, so any attempt by the Dems to switch to Kaine would probably end up with both Hillary and Kaine on the ballot, which would deliver the election to Trump. The only get-out is that, under the rules of the Twelfth Amendment, if there's no candidate with a majority of the ECVs, the president gets chosen by the House of Representatives from the three candidates for president who got the most ECVs. It's hard to see the GOP-dominated House choosing a loser Democrat.
So, nice bet, but I don't intend to spend the winnings quite yet!
We are not at crisis point, but we do not have an infinite set of assets in the UK to sell. Ultimately, we will need to either (a) meaningfully increase the quantity of our exports, or (b) reduce our consumption - almost certainly through a dramatic increase in the UK's negligible savings rate.
Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
Looking like an excellent bet at the moment, his price is into 110.
I'm on that too at 1000, but I'm struggling to see how it could actually materialise. The rules and deadlines for getting on to the ballot vary from state to state, so any attempt by the Dems to switch to Kaine wouldn't probably end up with both Hillary and Kaine on the ballot, which would deliver the election to Trump. The only get-out is that, under the rules of the Twelfth Amendment, if there's no candidate with a majority of the ECVs, the president gets chosen by the House of Representatives from the three candidates for president who got the most ECVs. It's hard to see the GOP-dominated House choosing a loser Democrat.
So, nice bet, but I don't intend to spend the winnings quite yet!
Are any of the electors actually bound to vote for the candidates on the ballot? Even if they are no longer running and/or alive???
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
That's a typically excellent article from Mr Worstall.
However, it is important that one's economy balances over time. When you run a persistent current account surplus, your country accumulates foreign assets. So, China owns gazillions of US government bonds, etc. Likewise, when you run a persistent current account deficit, you run up foreign liabilities.
We used to - as recently as the mid 1980s - to have a very big net financial assets position in the UK. Simply, more money was remitted to the UK than we remitted out. This enabled us to live beyond our means for a long time.
In 30 years, we've gone from a net 60% of GDP foreign assets position, to a negative 40%. At a 7% current account deficit, that'll be more than 60% in three years time. And it gets worse every day. When a Singaporean investor buys a flat in London and rents it out, he puts money in now (which helps cover our current account deficit this year...), but the stream of rental payments back to Singapore worsens our current account in future years.
We are not at crisis point, but we do not have an infinite set of assets in the UK to sell. Ultimately, we will need to either (a) meaningfully increase the quantity of our exports, or (b) reduce our consumption - almost certainly through a dramatic increase in the UK's negligible savings rate.
I'm levelled up on the main market at the moment, I think the odds are about right.
My last move was to lay Trump rather than back Clinton though, which I'm happy with this morning.
I'm at work who block bookmakers including Betfair so I'm really hoping for no dramatic moves today as my book, while green, is quite skewed at the moment.
Skewed which way ?
I laid Clinton expecting here to slowly drift out today, I've already rebacked some of my lay but want to close out today - I'm assuming she will drift today before Trump does something dumb tomorrow to mess up this gilt edged opportunity.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
Just so you know, the Illuminati is currently plotting a (small) global war, in which a few tens of millions will be killed. The purpose of this will be to demonstrate to the lumpen-proletariat that supranational organisations (the EU, NAFTA, the UN) are the only balwark against further war and chaos.
This is the true reason behind Hillary's "stumble" - it was a necessary part of manipulating the media and allowing Donald to ascend. And thus provide the catalystexcuse for war.
Nearly right. Corrected the error for you. If you want to work for Illuminati Communications Inc you need to improve your dictation skills
We in the Illuminati would say casus belli.
Not really in this case. No one is going to attack America as a result of Trump being election (which would be the casus belli). But everyone knows that Trump has an itchy trigger finger - who know what will happen on his watch
Indeed, he has already lashed out at China and Mexico, is no fan of the EU and who knows what he might do in the Middle East?
MPs get early sight of boundaries tomorrow says PA
Let the cat fighting begin!!
These are the first draft of the boundaries. Both England and Wales are being released (NI was last week). No news on Scotland.
There will then be a lengthy consultation process, where everyone fights for political advantage while dressing it up as "preserving local ties"
I just hope there is a way to get rid of the odious Philip Davies
All the Bradford constituencies are undersized. Keighley will need to gain some territory from Shipley, which in turn will need to gain a ward from either Bradford N or W. My guess is Davies' 9k majority might be reduced to 4 or 5k.
Betfair market has HC down from a 78% chance to a 63% chance.
Under reaction ?
A drop of 15% is about right for the incident but she was and remains too short.
What's the weather forecast for North America ? An autumnal cold snap might thin the presidential field.
I see Biden is the third favourite, ahead of Bernie.
Johnson, at 410, must surely be worth a pop in spite of Aleppo. If he gets into the debates, and he now might get his 15%, his odds will surely shorten.
Yes, Johnson is huge value at 410. His name is actually on the ballot papers.
Betfair's 'Next President' market is on the election result in November, not who takes the oath in January.
I'm a bit puzzled that Johnson has actually drifted out in all of this rather than come in. I was expecting to be able to lay off my Johnson that I took at 300 but alas no.
One thing that struck me was I wondered who the woman was next to Clinton throughout her brief visit to ceremony yesterday (and the woman holding Clinton up before being dragged into the van)...reverse google search, turns out to be her her personal physician, not secret service.
Doesn't mean any conspiracy theorist stuff, but it means that her team obviously thought she was so ill she needed her doctor by her side throughout her outing in public. Did the press not think that was odd at the time? Clearly not.
Hillary's medics are clearly terrified of her. She shouldn't have been allowed to fall to the ground yesterday but it seems that her hapless medical team is intimidated into not laying hands on the patient until it's too late. Reminds me of the paralysis of Stalin's doctors in his final hours.
I had the distinct feeling certain posters on here yesterday were defending the collapse of HRC and vigorously deflecting any concerns or even accusations about her health
Today the inference is more on .....well she will go on even if she drops dead in doing so and lots of historical whataboutery?
To coin a phrase.....24 hours is a long time in PB.
Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month
The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
Betfair say that "Cash Out lets you take profit early". What happens if you cash out and they then void the market - for example, because the US Congress postpones the presidential election until next year?
I'm not convinced those numbers are correct. Exports as a percent of GDP for the UK are the lowest of any developed country with a population of 25 - 75m.
(As a rule, the larger your country, the smaller your exports are, as you have a bigger internal market. The US and China both have huge, continent wide economies, and Japan is twice the size of the UK.)
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
I'm basing this off a tweet by Andrew Sentence
"Liam Fox may want to check the facts about UK exports - 3rd highest exports/head in G7 & 27% above G7 average"
His numbers don't match the World Bank ones very well. As a percent of GDP they have:
Spain 33.1 Canada 31.5 Italy 30.2 France 30.0 UK 27.4
It is worth remembering that (using 2015 numbers), the UK economy is very slightly larger than France's ($3.01trn vs $2.98) - but that's not enough to make up for the fact that exports as a percent of GDP are 10% higher in France.
It's also worth remembering that the massive decline in the pound will likely have elasticity of less than one. So, we'll have smaller exports in dollar terms in 2016 and 2017 than in 2015, so we may fall below Italy too next year.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
I find it deeply concerning that you see China as a political model superior to Western democracy.
But, I suspect you're not alone. Some people cry foul on the democratic system when it delivers a decision against their interests.
But, if you remove the mechanism for making your views known, what do you do when a non-democratic Government decides to move against you and your own interests?
''Kaine v Trump would be a landslide for the Democrat. Literally anyone else from either party beats Donald or Hillary. ''
I don;t see how this statement is based in logic. Clinton won the nomination on democratic elections. Ditto Trump. The latter beat a large field.
To say that untested candidates would romp home against them is a huge stretch.
Anyone remotely normal would beat either Donald or Hillary. They both have over 50% negative ratings with the general public (as opposed to their own party's primary voters).
''Would he get to choose a vice vice president prior to the vote ?''
If the dems change horses midstream it will surely reflect extremely badly on their judgement. They are the party that served up Clinton to the US electorate in the first place.
Kaine v Trump would be a landslide for the Democrat. Literally anyone else from either party beats Donald or Hillary.
Right, so I'm wondering if any elector can be faithless (for a very low value of faithless eg the paper said Hillary but Hillary had said Biden) or whether some states compel them to vote for the person on the paper.
Comments
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
Voters can smell the wind beneath the spin and headlines - that's why leave won (and Sindy failed). Ferk all to do with NHS cash.
Remain had a terrible hand - and played it badly. That is not the voters fault.
we need to promote tolerance of beliefs and ideas even if we strongly disapprove of them
Like ISIS and Boko Haram presumably ?
"A year ago today, I remember being very nervous indeed. Along with hundreds of thousands of people, I held my breath to find out whether or not the impossible had happened, whether Jeremy Corbyn – a role model to so many of the new intake of Labour MPs, and a brilliant, principled politician who looked set to be locked out of power forever – was about to become leader of the Labour party."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/12/one-year-on-jeremy-corbyn-has-transformed-british-politics
Evening Standard: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/british-business-too-fat-and-lazy-cabinet-minister-liam-fox-claims-in-extraordinary-attack-a3341586.html
Jamie Reid
Pro-Independence Blog Wings Over Scotland Has Been Suspended From Twitter https://t.co/Q5RqmNW3M5
That said, we did (do still?) have a very much better deal out of the EU than we are likely to end up with at the hands of Mrs May`s three goons.
I took my father into hospital for a scan this weekend and ended up in conversation with a nurse of South Asian heritage and Midlands accent. She brought up the topic of Brexit, saying she'd voted Leave because the EU was such a waste of money and we needed to get out. She couldn't understand why they don't just get on with it since the NHS could really, really do with the money at the moment.
This anecdote illustrates why it should never have been put to a referendum vote.
This is the true reason behind Hillary's "stumble" - it was a necessary part of manipulating the media and allowing Donald to ascend. And thus provide the catalyst for war.
Betfair's 'Next President' market is on the election result in November, not who takes the oath in January.
Either that or Morgan is, in fact, a socialist who has no business being in the conservative party, let alone representing it as an MP.
The DNC rules give no guidance as to who would have preference if Mrs Clinton drops out. Sanders, Biden, Kaine would all be in running.
OPEN YOUR EYES SHEEPLE!
"Narrative has gone from "Hillary is perfectly healthy, stop being sexist" to "FDR had Polio and was a good President" in less than 12 hours."
Goodness knows what the internal polling is telling the Dems if they are already at this stage.
What precisely nobody is discussing is the possibility that the DNC gets beaten by Trump and subsequently turns into what the left in Britain has turned into.
Edited extra bit. The first method I mentioned is also that used by the old Inner London Education Authority in the 1960s to select for grammar schools, though they also used a interview of the child with parents by the head teacher.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Goodness: I wish Michael Bloomberg had stood now.
There will then be a lengthy consultation process, where everyone fights for political advantage while dressing it up as "preserving local ties"
On the upside those lovely British ships, nuclear subs, planes and battle hardened troops must be lookin' pretty good to Western Europe right now.
Visas? maybe not.
(As a rule, the larger your country, the smaller your exports are, as you have a bigger internal market. The US and China both have huge, continent wide economies, and Japan is twice the size of the UK.)
See here: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?year_high_desc=false
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
If the dems change horses midstream it will surely reflect extremely badly on their judgement. They are the party that served up Clinton to the US electorate in the first place.
Is that a good thing or a bad thing:
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/two-particularly-stupid-views-of-trade-in-one-morning
Does anyone think there's any chance Betfair might settle this market (rather than void it) in favour of someone who's name isn't on the ballot papers? Currently an 8% underround if looking at those actually nominated.
"This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2016 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
"This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2016. If more than one election takes place in 2016, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
"If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
"Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.
"Liam Fox may want to check the facts about UK exports - 3rd highest exports/head in G7 & 27% above G7 average"
https://twitter.com/asentance/status/774519460292067329
Doesn't mean any conspiracy theorist stuff, but it means that her team obviously thought she was so ill she needed her doctor by her side throughout her outing in public. Did the press not think that was odd at the time? Clearly not.
''The Presidential election at Bernie's?''
Shermans name was on the ballot - and Twitter tells me he died 6 days before the result.
Absolutely. And I think many are weighing up the positive impact something like that might have, as against the potential downside - which as Mr RCS points out is growth destroying protectionism.
However, it is important that one's economy balances over time. When you run a persistent current account surplus, your country accumulates foreign assets. So, China owns gazillions of US government bonds, etc. Likewise, when you run a persistent current account deficit, you run up foreign liabilities.
We used to - as recently as the mid 1980s - to have a very big net financial assets position in the UK. Simply, more money was remitted to the UK than we remitted out. This enabled us to live beyond our means for a long time.
In 30 years, we've gone from a net 60% of GDP foreign assets position, to a negative 40%. At a 7% current account deficit, that'll be more than 60% in three years time. And it gets worse every day. When a Singaporean investor buys a flat in London and rents it out, he puts money in now (which helps cover our current account deficit this year...), but the stream of rental payments back to Singapore worsens our current account in future years.
We are not at crisis point, but we do not have an infinite set of assets in the UK to sell. Ultimately, we will need to either (a) meaningfully increase the quantity of our exports, or (b) reduce our consumption - almost certainly through a dramatic increase in the UK's negligible savings rate.
So, nice bet, but I don't intend to spend the winnings quite yet!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/12/labour-polls-jeremy-corbyn-one-year-leadership-live/
I don;t see how this statement is based in logic. Clinton won the nomination on democratic elections. Ditto Trump. The latter beat a large field.
To say that untested candidates would romp home against them is a huge stretch.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
I had the distinct feeling certain posters on here yesterday were defending the collapse of HRC and vigorously deflecting any concerns or even accusations about her health
Today the inference is more on .....well she will go on even if she drops dead in doing so and lots of historical whataboutery?
To coin a phrase.....24 hours is a long time in PB.
Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month
The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.
It's also worth remembering that the massive decline in the pound will likely have elasticity of less than one. So, we'll have smaller exports in dollar terms in 2016 and 2017 than in 2015, so we may fall below Italy too next year.
But, I suspect you're not alone. Some people cry foul on the democratic system when it delivers a decision against their interests.
But, if you remove the mechanism for making your views known, what do you do when a non-democratic Government decides to move against you and your own interests?
Baby and bathwater seem to come to mind.
Summary of my position:
Book worth 457
Neutral Clinton @ 448/Trump 450.
Long Kaine, Pence - best results at 4.8k (Kaine looks especially nice)
Short Sanders, Biden?? winning 68/84.
Gary Johnson @ 700.