Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month
The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
I've just grasped a tidy profit by selling my overnight buy of Tim Caine at 200 and 210 back to the market at 120 and 130, whilst still preserving a handsome potential profit on him. Rather like hindsight, Betfair can be a wonderful thing!
Betfair say that "Cash Out lets you take profit early". What happens if you cash out and they then void the market - for example, because the US Congress postpones the presidential election until next year?
Bloody good question. Anyone here with experience of an early cashout on a market that got voided?
Have Betfair ever voided a market so large before? There's 35m quid so far, will probably go over 100m by election day, second only behind the Brexit vote. They must be exposed to serious lawsuits if they try and work out what to do if a candidate gets replaced, voiding might actually be the better option for them.
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
That's a typically excellent article from Mr Worstall.
However, it is important that one's economy balances over time. When you run a persistent current account surplus, your country accumulates foreign assets. So, China owns gazillions of US government bonds, etc. Likewise, when you run a persistent current account deficit, you run up foreign liabilities.
We used to - as recently as the mid 1980s - to have a very big net financial assets position in the UK. Simply, more money was remitted to the UK than we remitted out. This enabled us to live beyond our means for a long time.
In 30 years, we've gone from a net 60% of GDP foreign assets position, to a negative 40%. At a 7% current account deficit, that'll be more than 60% in three years time. And it gets worse every day. When a Singaporean investor buys a flat in London and rents it out, he puts money in now (which helps cover our current account deficit this year...), but the stream of rental payments back to Singapore worsens our current account in future years.
We are not at crisis point, but we do not have an infinite set of assets in the UK to sell. Ultimately, we will need to either (a) meaningfully increase the quantity of our exports, or (b) reduce our consumption - almost certainly through a dramatic increase in the UK's negligible savings rate.
I've just grasped a tidy profit by selling my overnight buy of Tim Caine at 200 and 210 back to the market at 120 and 130, whilst still preserving a handsome potential profit on him. Rather like hindsight, Betfair can be a wonderful thing!
F1: once I've finished fiddling with a chapter (a few knotty lines to untangle) I'll cast my eye over the Singapore market(s). There may be an early tip. Unsure as yet.
Right, so I'm wondering if any elector can be faithless (for a very low value of faithless eg the paper said Hillary but Hillary had said Biden) or whether some states compel them to vote for the person on the paper.
There's a map in the wiki link showing which states been the practice
@edmundintokyo As the Wikipedia article suggests, some states criminalise faithlessness in an elector and some void a purported faithless vote. It's hard to imagine an act of faithlessness being prosecuted where the electorate had understood in advance what the elector is going to do, but I suppose that would depend on the vindictiveness of the political opponents in any given state.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
It also - and this was my main point - makes the sterling-denominated income stream which Johnny Foreigner has invested in worth less, and non-sterling-denominated income streams which sharp British investors have invested in worth more. That seems to me to be the inevitable long-term outcome of the imbalance which you described.
Anyone remotely normal would beat either Donald or Hillary. They both have over 50% negative ratings with the general public (as opposed to their own party's primary voters).
Both parties have managed to nominate a candidate the other party are very happy with.
I'm not convinced those numbers are correct. Exports as a percent of GDP for the UK are the lowest of any developed country with a population of 25 - 75m.
(As a rule, the larger your country, the smaller your exports are, as you have a bigger internal market. The US and China both have huge, continent wide economies, and Japan is twice the size of the UK.)
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
I'm basing this off a tweet by Andrew Sentence
"Liam Fox may want to check the facts about UK exports - 3rd highest exports/head in G7 & 27% above G7 average"
His numbers don't match the World Bank ones very well. As a percent of GDP they have:
Spain 33.1 Canada 31.5 Italy 30.2 France 30.0 UK 27.4
It is worth remembering that (using 2015 numbers), the UK economy is very slightly larger than France's ($3.01trn vs $2.98) - but that's not enough to make up for the fact that exports as a percent of GDP are 10% higher in France.
It's also worth remembering that the massive decline in the pound will likely have elasticity of less than one. So, we'll have smaller exports in dollar terms in 2016 and 2017 than in 2015, so we may fall below Italy too next year.
I think it shows the Euro doing the job it's supposed to do in boosting exports. Eurozone countries do better than Britain at exporting outside the EU as well. They are not just exporting to each other. The chart also shows UK exports boosted by membership of the the EEC in the early seventies, which will presumably fall back now.
Yes, Johnson is huge value at 410. His name is actually on the ballot papers.
Agreed.
According to the 12th Amendment, if no candidate gets a majority in the Electoral College, then the House of Representatives must choose from among the top three "on the list of those voted for as President". One interpretation is that if one of those three has withdrawn, then they must choose from the top two.
All the conspiracy stuff of body doubles etc etc etc...made me think, is Fidel Castro officially still alive? When was the last time he was seen in public?
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
I find it deeply concerning that you see China as a political model superior to Western democracy.
But, I suspect you're not alone. Some people cry foul on the democratic system when it delivers a decision against their interests.
But, if you remove the mechanism for making your views known, what do you do when a non-democratic Government decides to move against you and your own interests?
Baby and bathwater seem to come to mind.
What do you do when a democratic government decides to move against you and your own interests? I don't see much difference?
Anyone remotely normal would beat either Donald or Hillary. They both have over 50% negative ratings with the general public (as opposed to their own party's primary voters).
Both parties have managed to nominate a candidate the other party are very happy with.
I'm not so sure. Clinton will find Trump difficult. He can't be game planned and doesn't take stuff out of the accepted playbook. As an example, they are struggling to find the right person to play him in practice debates.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
I find it deeply concerning that you see China as a political model superior to Western democracy.
But, I suspect you're not alone. Some people cry foul on the democratic system when it delivers a decision against their interests.
But, if you remove the mechanism for making your views known, what do you do when a non-democratic Government decides to move against you and your own interests?
Baby and bathwater seem to come to mind.
What do you do when a democratic government decides to move against you and your own interests? I don't see much difference?
All the conspiracy stuff of body doubles etc etc etc...made me think, is Fidel Castro officially still alive? When was the last time he was seen in public?
He or someone uncannily resembling him had a 90 th birthday party back in august.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
It also - and this was my main point - makes the sterling-denominated income stream which Johnny Foreigner has invested in worth less, and non-sterling-denominated income streams which sharp British investors have invested in worth more. That seems to me to be the inevitable long-term outcome of the imbalance which you described.
FWIW, I've locked into a structural short on sterling at US$1.85 and have no intention of changing that medium term.
(Mainly because my wife would kill me if I sold the beach house...)
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
Having spent a fair bit of time in China, I would take our flawed democracy over their corrupt one party state every day of the week. The problems being stored up there are immense and at some stage something will give. It will not be pleasant.
Precisely the reason why I stopped contributing to big name charities many years ago. These days I restrict myself to smaller local charities, e.g. hospices, etc.
All the conspiracy stuff of body doubles etc etc etc...made me think, is Fidel Castro officially still alive? When was the last time he was seen in public?
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
I find it deeply concerning that you see China as a political model superior to Western democracy.
But, I suspect you're not alone. Some people cry foul on the democratic system when it delivers a decision against their interests.
But, if you remove the mechanism for making your views known, what do you do when a non-democratic Government decides to move against you and your own interests?
Baby and bathwater seem to come to mind.
What do you do when a democratic government decides to move against you and your own interests? I don't see much difference?
Brexit, Trump, AfD. There is always the opportunity for a reaction within a democratic system.
Half of me thinks every available penny should be put into laying those not actually on the ballot papers. Surely they can't actually settle the election market in favour of someone who wasn't even nominated?
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
It also - and this was my main point - makes the sterling-denominated income stream which Johnny Foreigner has invested in worth less, and non-sterling-denominated income streams which sharp British investors have invested in worth more. That seems to me to be the inevitable long-term outcome of the imbalance which you described.
FWIW, I've locked into a structural short on sterling at US$1.85 and have no intention of changing that medium term.
(Mainly because my wife would kill me if I sold the beach house...)
All the conspiracy stuff of body doubles etc etc etc...made me think, is Fidel Castro officially still alive? When was the last time he was seen in public?
He or someone uncannily resembling him had a 90 th birthday party back in august.
So he was. That situation is all a bit weird, but actually good step for Cuba.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
It also - and this was my main point - makes the sterling-denominated income stream which Johnny Foreigner has invested in worth less, and non-sterling-denominated income streams which sharp British investors have invested in worth more. That seems to me to be the inevitable long-term outcome of the imbalance which you described.
FWIW, I've locked into a structural short on sterling at US$1.85 and have no intention of changing that medium term.
(Mainly because my wife would kill me if I sold the beach house...)
Mr. Observer, it's a long time ago now, but when I visited China I listened, briefly, to an English language radio station. All the news was good. It took me a little while to realise, but when I did it suddenly sounded intensely creepy.
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
Is that a good thing or a bad thing:
That's a typically excellent article from Mr Worstall.
However, it is important that one's economy balances over time. When you run a persistent current account surplus, your country accumulates foreign assets. So, China owns gazillions of US government bonds, etc. Likewise, when you run a persistent current account deficit, you run up foreign liabilities.
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
That's a typically excellent article from Mr Worstall.
However, it is important that one's economy balances over time. When you run a persistent current account surplus, your country accumulates foreign assets. So, China owns gazillions of US government bonds, etc. Likewise, when you run a persistent current account deficit, you run up foreign liabilities.
We used to - as recently as the mid 1980s - to have a very big net financial assets position in the UK. Simply, more money was remitted to the UK than we remitted out. This enabled us to live beyond our means for a long time.
In 30 years, we've gone from a net 60% of GDP foreign assets position, to a negative 40%. At a 7% current account deficit, that'll be more than 60% in three years time. And it gets worse every day. When a Singaporean investor buys a flat in London and rents it out, he puts money in now (which helps cover our current account deficit this year...), but the stream of rental payments back to Singapore worsens our current account in future years.
We are not at crisis point, but we do not have an infinite set of assets in the UK to sell. Ultimately, we will need to either (a) meaningfully increase the quantity of our exports, or (b) reduce our consumption - almost certainly through a dramatic increase in the UK's negligible savings rate.
Excellent post.
IMO the post is better than the article, which makes a rather trite point as is picked up by some of the comments below it.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
It also - and this was my main point - makes the sterling-denominated income stream which Johnny Foreigner has invested in worth less, and non-sterling-denominated income streams which sharp British investors have invested in worth more. That seems to me to be the inevitable long-term outcome of the imbalance which you described.
FWIW, I've locked into a structural short on sterling at US$1.85 and have no intention of changing that medium term.
(Mainly because my wife would kill me if I sold the beach house...)
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
What a thoroughly foolish and infantile post.
It's OK to disagree with that post, but it's not an infantile post by any means. infantile
of or occurring among babies or very young children. synonyms: childish, babyish, immature, puerile, juvenile, adolescent;
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
It also - and this was my main point - makes the sterling-denominated income stream which Johnny Foreigner has invested in worth less, and non-sterling-denominated income streams which sharp British investors have invested in worth more. That seems to me to be the inevitable long-term outcome of the imbalance which you described.
FWIW, I've locked into a structural short on sterling at US$1.85 and have no intention of changing that medium term.
(Mainly because my wife would kill me if I sold the beach house...)
The poor darling - imagine having to cope with life without a beach house - it doesn't bear thinking about.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
It also - and this was my main point - makes the sterling-denominated income stream which Johnny Foreigner has invested in worth less, and non-sterling-denominated income streams which sharp British investors have invested in worth more. That seems to me to be the inevitable long-term outcome of the imbalance which you described.
FWIW, I've locked into a structural short on sterling at US$1.85 and have no intention of changing that medium term.
(Mainly because my wife would kill me if I sold the beach house...)
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
We are not at crisis point, but we do not have an infinite set of assets in the UK to sell. Ultimately, we will need to either (a) meaningfully increase the quantity of our exports, or (b) reduce our consumption - almost certainly through a dramatic increase in the UK's negligible savings rate.
Great post. I think we need to push hard on import substitution too. Or importing from much cheaper places. (Such as agricultural / food imports from outside the EU).
Yeah - that was the one time I went bearish on Trump these last 14 months, when he seemed to be spoiling for fights left, right and centre and pissing off those whose support it looked like he'd need; otherwise, I've always thought there was value. I don't think I'd do differently in the circumstances again: Trump acted like he was already nominee at a time when he wasn't and when others had a chance to stop him, albeit in a way that would have left no-one with much legitimacy. In the end, it was their botched pact that sealed his win as much as anything he did.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
It also - and this was my main point - makes the sterling-denominated income stream which Johnny Foreigner has invested in worth less, and non-sterling-denominated income streams which sharp British investors have invested in worth more. That seems to me to be the inevitable long-term outcome of the imbalance which you described.
FWIW, I've locked into a structural short on sterling at US$1.85 and have no intention of changing that medium term.
(Mainly because my wife would kill me if I sold the beach house...)
Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month
The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
I think its is true to say that all my life the pound sterling has been quietly sinking against all other major currencies. So if devaluation were such a wonderful idea we ought to be top of the table, after all we have gone from a pound being worth more than $4 to it being a bit above $1.
Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.
I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
Oligarchies are inherently corrupt and self-serving.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
Having spent a fair bit of time in China, I would take our flawed democracy over their corrupt one party state every day of the week. The problems being stored up there are immense and at some stage something will give. It will not be pleasant.
An interesting (although terrifying) question is whether democracy is able to survive a period of sustained decline in living standards.
Up to now, the West has had continuing rising living standards c. 1750-2000, albeit the 1930s were one hell of a nasty hiccup in Europe, the trend has been the same.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
Having spent a fair bit of time in China, I would take our flawed democracy over their corrupt one party state every day of the week. The problems being stored up there are immense and at some stage something will give. It will not be pleasant.
An interesting (although terrifying) question is whether democracy is able to survive a period of sustained decline in living standards.
Up to now, the West has had continuing rising living standards c. 1750-2000, albeit the 1930s were one hell of a nasty hiccup in Europe, the trend has been the same.
That scares me too. I think it's one of the reasons that our government needs to work hard on inequality. (Even though - as a 1% - I'd be a loser. I'd rather lose a little now, than everything later.)
Oh well, it's back to bed for me for an hour or so, cheerio Rob, everyone.
A quick nap before the new thread? Dangerous!
There is no new thread. This thread is staying up until lunchtime.
Precisely, as I had already concluded ...... why close down a good story, as if the powers that be at PB.com would ever contemplate doing such a thing. Oh wait .....!
Announcing the result of the referendum prediction competition would be a good story...
Indeed so, but it seems that miracles take a little longer.
Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month
The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
I think its is true to say that all my life the pound sterling has been quietly sinking against all other major currencies. So if devaluation were such a wonderful idea we ought to be top of the table, after all we have gone from a pound being worth more than $4 to it being a bit above $1.
Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.
I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
GDP per head has grown by about 125% since Harold Wilson devalued in 1967. Had sterling remained at $2.80 during the past 50 years, I expect that the rate of growth would have been rather less.
Devaluation is no panacea, but deliberately maintaining a currency at an overvalued rate can really cripple an economy, as the Italians have discovered. Their GDP per head is no higher than 15 years ago.
I'm surprised the Septics haven't brought out dolls of the candidates. A trump doll with a set of wigs and a string which when pulled shouts out various insults, and a Hillary doll which crumples to the floor when exposed to light.
A Jezza doll for the UK market could be a winner too. The foot in the mouth might make walking difficult though.
We have the lowest exports as a percentage of GDP in the EU. Worse, just a decade ago we were ahead of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Now we're well behind them.
We are not at crisis point, but we do not have an infinite set of assets in the UK to sell. Ultimately, we will need to either (a) meaningfully increase the quantity of our exports, or (b) reduce our consumption - almost certainly through a dramatic increase in the UK's negligible savings rate.
Great post. I think we need to push hard on import substitution too. Or importing from much cheaper places. (Such as agricultural / food imports from outside the EU).
Import substitution would need to be aimed out our huge semi-manufactured goods deficit, that's not an easy win. It would need huge investment by businesses and a step change in education and training. The problems are two-fold, firstly the infrastructure for semi-manufactured goods is all gone, either sold or demolished and secondly we don't have an education suited to it.
However, the biggest issue is that it's pushing water uphill. Even Germany are going to start finding this sooner rather than later. The biggest cost for this industry is labour, in the UK, Europe and even US to some degree, unit labour costs are 10x higher than they are in China and SE Asia. We need to have a productivity rate at least 3-4x higher in order to justify domestic manufacturing. The UK and US have fallen badly behind which is why our industries have all moved overseas, the Germans have a few in built advantages and a few hard won advantages, a weak currency and an education system which values this work, however even those are being eroded.
What we need to do is ensure we have access to cheaper imports from outside the EU and ensure our manufacturing industry adds more value than anywhere else in the world.
Import substitution, to me, feels like a non-starter.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
I find it deeply concerning that you see China as a political model superior to Western democracy.
But, I suspect you're not alone. Some people cry foul on the democratic system when it delivers a decision against their interests.
But, if you remove the mechanism for making your views known, what do you do when a non-democratic Government decides to move against you and your own interests?
Baby and bathwater seem to come to mind.
What do you do when a democratic government decides to move against you and your own interests? I don't see much difference?
Brexit, Trump, AfD. There is always the opportunity for a reaction within a democratic system.
Brexit, for example, is just some other group having the state move against them and their interests. The tyranny of the majority is still just a tyranny.
If Trump convinces too well that Hilary's health is failing, is that enough for voters to look at the Democratic ticket in the round and might that actually give them a poll boost?
Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month
The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
I think its is true to say that all my life the pound sterling has been quietly sinking against all other major currencies. So if devaluation were such a wonderful idea we ought to be top of the table, after all we have gone from a pound being worth more than $4 to it being a bit above $1.
Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.
I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
GDP per head has grown by about 125% since Harold Wilson devalued in 1967. Had sterling remained at $2.80 during the past 50 years, I expect that the rate of growth would have been rather less.
Devaluation is no panacea, but deliberately maintaining a currency at an overvalued rate can really cripple an economy, as the Italians have discovered. Their GDP per head is no higher than 15 years ago.
Devaluation must surely be thought of as a short term tactical response (to the extent that it can be considered within the control of anyone but the international markets) rather than a long term economic strategy ?
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
Having spent a fair bit of time in China, I would take our flawed democracy over their corrupt one party state every day of the week. The problems being stored up there are immense and at some stage something will give. It will not be pleasant.
An interesting (although terrifying) question is whether democracy is able to survive a period of sustained decline in living standards.
Up to now, the West has had continuing rising living standards c. 1750-2000, albeit the 1930s were one hell of a nasty hiccup in Europe, the trend has been the same.
That scares me too. I think it's one of the reasons that our government needs to work hard on inequality. (Even though - as a 1% - I'd be a loser. I'd rather lose a little now, than everything later.)
Maybe this is my prejudice coming through, but I think the irony is that the wealthy lefty do gooder Guardian reader types are completely oblivious to the fragility of our system.
I wonder if Hofer's ahead in the polls and they're trying to give the other chap more time. [Yes, that might sound crackpot. Until you remember the re-run is because the other chap's very narrow victory last time was due to turnouts exceeding 100%].
Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month
The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
I think its is true to say that all my life the pound sterling has been quietly sinking against all other major currencies. So if devaluation were such a wonderful idea we ought to be top of the table, after all we have gone from a pound being worth more than $4 to it being a bit above $1.
Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.
I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
I think that's unfair. The German economy is currently prospering on the back of a long term devalued currency and prior wage dumping.
Sterling has been over-valued for a long time IMO, we have a huge current account deficit as Robert pointed out and the current rate feels about right.
I'm also unsure over the longer term value of a weaker currency, as the ONS pointed out our import/export prices have an almost linear relationship, as a country without natural resources, or at least a dwindling supply, any export gains based on a weaker currency will be temporary or hard won through real terms wage deflation.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite.
Having spent a fair bit of time in China, I would take our flawed democracy over their corrupt one party state every day of the week. The problems being stored up there are immense and at some stage something will give. It will not be pleasant.
An interesting (although terrifying) question is whether democracy is able to survive a period of sustained decline in living standards.
Up to now, the West has had continuing rising living standards c. 1750-2000, albeit the 1930s were one hell of a nasty hiccup in Europe, the trend has been the same.
That scares me too. I think it's one of the reasons that our government needs to work hard on inequality. (Even though - as a 1% - I'd be a loser. I'd rather lose a little now, than everything later.)
It does, but my view would be it has to gear inequality mitigation measures with self-sustainability in mind.
Direct fiscal redistribution is running to stand still, and we will utilmately run out of cash. I think HMG needs to switch the balance of funding away from the oldies (pensions and health) and towards adult education, training and re-training and R&D and innovation support grants.
Basically, it needs to redistribute to create an energetic and dynamic working class.
Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?
This not not about the campaign.
This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.
How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.
We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.
No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.
I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.
Having spent a fair bit of time in China, I would take our flawed democracy over their corrupt one party state every day of the week. The problems being stored up there are immense and at some stage something will give. It will not be pleasant.
An interesting (although terrifying) question is whether democracy is able to survive a period of sustained decline in living standards.
Up to now, the West has had continuing rising living standards c. 1750-2000, albeit the 1930s were one hell of a nasty hiccup in Europe, the trend has been the same.
That scares me too. I think it's one of the reasons that our government needs to work hard on inequality. (Even though - as a 1% - I'd be a loser. I'd rather lose a little now, than everything later.)
Absolutely agreed. Brexit (among other anti-establishment movements) is a reaction to the bottom half of the income curve not benefitting from globalisation. Your paper was highly instructive on this subject and I hope that it has been read by the great and good of Whitehall instead of their daily serving of the Guardian.
F1: given the Red Bull performance at Monaco and their improvement since, decided against backing Hamilton/Rosberg for the win at 2.5 and 4 respectively. I don't think there'll be a repeat of last year's collapse in form, but I do think the Red Bull is in good shape.
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
@MichaelDugher: One year on, Labour - a once successful brand - risks becoming the political equivalent of BHS or Woolworths... https://t.co/uolOliO8ZL
Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month
The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
I think its is true to say that all my life the pound sterling has been quietly sinking against all other major currencies. So if devaluation were such a wonderful idea we ought to be top of the table, after all we have gone from a pound being worth more than $4 to it being a bit above $1.
Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.
I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
I think that's unfair. The German economy is currently prospering on the back of a long term devalued currency and prior wage dumping.
Sterling has been over-valued for a long time IMO, we have a huge current account deficit as Robert pointed out and the current rate feels about right.
I'm also unsure over the longer term value of a weaker currency, as the ONS pointed out our import/export prices have an almost linear relationship, as a country without natural resources, or at least a dwindling supply, any export gains based on a weaker currency will be temporary or hard won through real terms wage deflation.
Mr. Max, What the German economy is doing now (and for the last ten years or so) was not my point. The German economy was built from 1945 on the principle of sound money and not constant devaluation. So if the Germans could build an export powerhouse against a background of appreciating currency how did we end up with a declining export share, and industrial base, against a background of constant devaluation?
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month
The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
I think its is true to say that all my life the pound sterling has been quietly sinking against all other major currencies. So if devaluation were such a wonderful idea we ought to be top of the table, after all we have gone from a pound being worth more than $4 to it being a bit above $1.
Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.
I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
I think that's unfair. The German economy is currently prospering on the back of a long term devalued currency and prior wage dumping.
Sterling has been over-valued for a long time IMO, we have a huge current account deficit as Robert pointed out and the current rate feels about right.
I'm also unsure over the longer term value of a weaker currency, as the ONS pointed out our import/export prices have an almost linear relationship, as a country without natural resources, or at least a dwindling supply, any export gains based on a weaker currency will be temporary or hard won through real terms wage deflation.
Mr. Max, What the German economy is doing now (and for the last ten years or so) was not my point. The German economy was built from 1945 on the principle of sound money and not constant devaluation. So if the Germans could build an export powerhouse against a background of appreciating currency how did we end up with a declining export share, and industrial base, against a background of constant devaluation?
Real terms wage deflation, no minimum wage, a superior primary and secondary education system and generous state subsidies. They also never had the stupidity of Blair's 50% university target.
So about that little girl Hiliary hugged and visiting ceremonies with massive crowds...
Contagious or non contagious it really doesn't matter. The fact is quite a number of people will presume or even think it is contagious and will join the dots even incorrectly and come to a conclusion that hugging the young girl was opportunistic if not downright dangerous
TBF we can't even agree on here if it is or is not
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
If that is true then she potentially endangered the safety/life of that little girl.
Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month
The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.
Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).
BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
I think its is true to say that all my life the pound sterling has been quietly sinking against all other major currencies. So if devaluation were such a wonderful idea we ought to be top of the table, after all we have gone from a pound being worth more than $4 to it being a bit above $1.
Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.
I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
I think that's unfair. The German economy is currently prospering on the back of a long term devalued currency and prior wage dumping.
Sterling has been over-valued for a long time IMO, we have a huge current account deficit as Robert pointed out and the current rate feels about right.
I'm also unsure over the longer term value of a weaker currency, as the ONS pointed out our import/export prices have an almost linear relationship, as a country without natural resources, or at least a dwindling supply, any export gains based on a weaker currency will be temporary or hard won through real terms wage deflation.
Mr. Max, What the German economy is doing now (and for the last ten years or so) was not my point. The German economy was built from 1945 on the principle of sound money and not constant devaluation. So if the Germans could build an export powerhouse against a background of appreciating currency how did we end up with a declining export share, and industrial base, against a background of constant devaluation?
Germany's export success depends upon other countries not behaving like Germany.
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
If that is true then she potentially endangered the safety/life of that little girl.
Well and attending a ceremony with 1000's of people in close proximity...and all the staff in close contact...
They are clearly hiding / downplaying some sort of health issue as this isn't a one off. What it is could be anything. It could just be as simple as given her previous health problems she can't do 20hrs days and run around all over the place without getting sick / run down or it could be worse.
Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.
.
I think its is true to say that all my life the pound sterling has been quietly sinking against all other major currencies. So if devaluation were such a wonderful idea we ought to be top of the table, after all we have gone from a pound being worth more than $4 to it being a bit above $1.
Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.
I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
I think that's unfair. The German economy is currently prospering on the back of a long term devalued currency and prior wage dumping.
Sterling has been over-valued for a long time IMO, we have a huge current account deficit as Robert pointed out and the current rate feels about right.
I'm also unsure over the longer term value of a weaker currency, as the ONS pointed out our import/export prices have an almost linear relationship, as a country without natural resources, or at least a dwindling supply, any export gains based on a weaker currency will be temporary or hard won through real terms wage deflation.
When we first went to Germany with the BAOR in 1970 the "official" rate of exchange was DM7.40 to the £. Of course that was a rate simply for the payment of wages and the market rate, such as it was, was already lower.
This was a great subsidy for the forces there and the problem was usually how did you get that money back to the UK at a time of exchange rate controls. The usual answer was to buy a fancy German car, drive it back to the UK and sell it.
By 1990 and the ERM the rate was DM3 to the £. Mostly, this was because of higher inflation in the UK but there were very few signs it was doing our industry any good. What we see in Germany is that when the going gets tough, as it was in the early days of the Euro, the tough get going with more investment and higher productivity boosted by internal devaluation.
In contrast in the UK when the going gets tough our industry all too frequently disappears. I think this is because of the different structure of ownership (far fewer family firms here) and the different attitude of the banks (way more short term here). No one system is perfect as the bad debts on German balance sheets shows but their system has certainly worked a lot better than ours.
Damn him, he's said almost word for word what I said he should.
So Trump should say "I hope Hilary is feeling well and campaigning again as soon as possible." i.e. She's ill but I'm being nice. He'll probably mime someone having a stroke.
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
If that is true then she potentially endangered the safety/life of that little girl.
Well and attending a ceremony with 1000's of people in close proximity...and all the staff in close contact...
The stupid thing is that if Hillary really did have a bug that'd be gone in a couple of days - there was no need to say it was pneumonia at all. My immediate reaction was that they needed a plausible longer lasting illness that covered all manner of other things/several days rest.
I honestly don't believe a word of her explanations.
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
I may be overly suspicious but I find it a little convenient that this diagnosis comes out just after she's collapsed in public. I'm wondering if it's a political infection and there's a more serious cause that they don't want to talk about
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
If that is true then she potentially endangered the safety/life of that little girl.
Well and attending a ceremony with 1000's of people in close proximity...and all the staff in close contact...
The stupid thing is that if Hillary really did have a bug that'd be gone in a couple of days - there was no need to say it was pneumonia at all. My immediate reaction was that they needed a plausible longer lasting illness that covered all manner of other things/several days rest.
I honestly don't believe a word of her explanations.
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
I may be overly suspicious but I find it a little convenient that this diagnosis comes out just after she's collapsed in public. I'm wondering if it's a political infection and there's a more serious cause that they don't want to talk about
Her eyes must have been a mess to need those ridiculous sun glasses when no one else was wearing them. Or the body double stuff has some truth in it....That really would change the race.
I am extremely late to this thread, so please could somebody kindly answer a trivial question for me, even though it may already have been mentioned?
I watched the video in the header (transport heading left - right), and then went back & watched the same event on the previous thread (transport heading right - left).
Please, somebody, why have the images been inverted?
I would imagine a big fear for Clinton campaign is that for all the faults of Trump (and there is a million and one), one thing he displays is energy. He does crazy number of those rallies, often several in a day in different parts of the country, flying all over the place day after day.
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
I may be overly suspicious but I find it a little convenient that this diagnosis comes out just after she's collapsed in public. I'm wondering if it's a political infection and there's a more serious cause that they don't want to talk about
That really would be desperate state of affairs to slide past the American voters, just so Hillary gets SOMETHING to be remembered for...
When we first went to Germany with the BAOR in 1970 the "official" rate of exchange was DM7.40 to the £. Of course that was a rate simply for the payment of wages and the market rate, such as it was, was already lower.
This was a great subsidy for the forces there and the problem was usually how did you get that money back to the UK at a time of exchange rate controls. The usual answer was to buy a fancy German car, drive it back to the UK and sell it.
By 1990 and the ERM the rate was DM3 to the £. Mostly, this was because of higher inflation in the UK but there were very few signs it was doing our industry any good. What we see in Germany is that when the going gets tough, as it was in the early days of the Euro, the tough get going with more investment and higher productivity boosted by internal devaluation.
In contrast in the UK when the going gets tough our industry all too frequently disappears. I think this is because of the different structure of ownership (far fewer family firms here) and the different attitude of the banks (way more short term here). No one system is perfect as the bad debts on German balance sheets shows but their system has certainly worked a lot better than ours.
Yes, I'm not taking away from past achievements in Germany. Their rebuilding of industry after the war has been a lot better than here. As I said, if we want weak currency to stick and boost exports for the longer term is means wage deflation in real terms. It means directors are going to have to act with restraint in order to sell falling wages to staff. The chances of that happening are close to zero IMO, the boardroom class as become another parasitical entity in the UK economy. They only seem interested in their own remuneration package and end of year bonus targets. Unfair on some good eggs, but overall I think I'm right.
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
I may be overly suspicious but I find it a little convenient that this diagnosis comes out just after she's collapsed in public. I'm wondering if it's a political infection and there's a more serious cause that they don't want to talk about
I have zero medical knowledge about things I've never had - but it's those blue glasses that look really strange/The Matrix.
Why would any politician wear shades like that - especially when no one else around does? I keep seeing references to epilepsy on Twitter. I'd a greyhound with severe epilepsy - but I don't think that counts, she'd have looked really cool with them on
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
I may be overly suspicious but I find it a little convenient that this diagnosis comes out just after she's collapsed in public. I'm wondering if it's a political infection and there's a more serious cause that they don't want to talk about
Her eyes must have been a mess to need those ridiculous sun glasses when no one else was wearing them. Or the body double stuff has some truth in it....That really would change the race.
The conspiracy theories are probably just that, but, Hillary Clinton has lied/exaggerated so often that she only has her own behaviour to blame for giving credence to them.
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
I may be overly suspicious but I find it a little convenient that this diagnosis comes out just after she's collapsed in public. I'm wondering if it's a political infection and there's a more serious cause that they don't want to talk about
Her eyes must have been a mess to need those ridiculous sun glasses when no one else was wearing them. Or the body double stuff has some truth in it....That really would change the race.
Maybe she just got really smashed on Saturday night and then became dehydrated on Sunday morning?
@MichaelDugher: One year on, Labour - a once successful brand - risks becoming the political equivalent of BHS or Woolworths... https://t.co/uolOliO8ZL
Not really. People had a collective sense of loss and regret when Woolies went...
"If only I'd bought more pick-n-mix." Nobody is going to say "If only I'd voted for Labour more..."
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
I may be overly suspicious but I find it a little convenient that this diagnosis comes out just after she's collapsed in public. I'm wondering if it's a political infection and there's a more serious cause that they don't want to talk about
I have zero medical knowledge about things I've never had - but it's those blue glasses that look really strange/The Matrix.
Why would any politician wear shades like that - especially when no one else around does? I keep seeing references to epilepsy on Twitter. I'd a greyhound with severe epilepsy - but I don't think that counts, she'd have looked really cool with them on
Google has a few results for Parkinson's and blue lenses
One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??
A few days? a week max?
If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
I may be overly suspicious but I find it a little convenient that this diagnosis comes out just after she's collapsed in public. I'm wondering if it's a political infection and there's a more serious cause that they don't want to talk about
Her eyes must have been a mess to need those ridiculous sun glasses when no one else was wearing them. Or the body double stuff has some truth in it....That really would change the race.
That we're even wondering if there's a doppelgänger in play is beyond strange
When we first went to Germany with the BAOR in 1970 the "official" rate of exchange was DM7.40 to the £. Of course that was a rate simply for the payment of wages and the market rate, such as it was, was already lower.
This was a great subsidy for the forces there and the problem was usually how did you get that money back to the UK at a time of exchange rate controls. The usual answer was to buy a fancy German car, drive it back to the UK and sell it.
By 1990 and the ERM the rate was DM3 to the £. Mostly, this was because of higher inflation in the UK but there were very few signs it was doing our industry any good. What we see in Germany is that when the going gets tough, as it was in the early days of the Euro, the tough get going with more investment and higher productivity boosted by internal devaluation.
In contrast in the UK when the going gets tough our industry all too frequently disappears. I think this is because of the different structure of ownership (far fewer family firms here) and the different attitude of the banks (way more short term here). No one system is perfect as the bad debts on German balance sheets shows but their system has certainly worked a lot better than ours.
Yes, I'm not taking away from past achievements in Germany. Their rebuilding of industry after the war has been a lot better than here. As I said, if we want weak currency to stick and boost exports for the longer term is means wage deflation in real terms. It means directors are going to have to act with restraint in order to sell falling wages to staff. The chances of that happening are close to zero IMO, the boardroom class as become another parasitical entity in the UK economy. They only seem interested in their own remuneration package and end of year bonus targets. Unfair on some good eggs, but overall I think I'm right.
In public companies there are many as you describe, for sure.
When we first went to Germany with the BAOR in 1970 the "official" rate of exchange was DM7.40 to the £. Of course that was a rate simply for the payment of wages and the market rate, such as it was, was already lower.
This was a great subsidy for the forces there and the problem was usually how did you get that money back to the UK at a time of exchange rate controls. The usual answer was to buy a fancy German car, drive it back to the UK and sell it.
By 1990 and the ERM the rate was DM3 to the £. Mostly, this was because of higher inflation in the UK but there were very few signs it was doing our industry any good. What we see in Germany is that when the going gets tough, as it was in the early days of the Euro, the tough get going with more investment and higher productivity boosted by internal devaluation.
In contrast in the UK when the going gets tough our industry all too frequently disappears. I think this is because of the different structure of ownership (far fewer family firms here) and the different attitude of the banks (way more short term here). No one system is perfect as the bad debts on German balance sheets shows but their system has certainly worked a lot better than ours.
Yes, I'm not taking away from past achievements in Germany. Their rebuilding of industry after the war has been a lot better than here. As I said, if we want weak currency to stick and boost exports for the longer term is means wage deflation in real terms. It means directors are going to have to act with restraint in order to sell falling wages to staff. The chances of that happening are close to zero IMO, the boardroom class as become another parasitical entity in the UK economy. They only seem interested in their own remuneration package and end of year bonus targets. Unfair on some good eggs, but overall I think I'm right.
Again it comes back to ownership. Those overpaid managers and directors in the UK are employees with no long term investment in the business. In Germany more of them will have a stake and be focussed on the long term success of the business, often on an intergenerational basis. We try to address this with share options etc but these simply seem to create further distortions such as share buybacks rather than looking to increase the size of the business. Such a mercenary attitude does not engender enthusiasm or restraint amongst the workforce.
Comments
BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
Rather like hindsight, Betfair can be a wonderful thing!
The self entitlement and arrogance of Mr Barnesian's post is quite simply breathtaking.
Have Betfair ever voided a market so large before? There's 35m quid so far, will probably go over 100m by election day, second only behind the Brexit vote. They must be exposed to serious lawsuits if they try and work out what to do if a candidate gets replaced, voiding might actually be the better option for them.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?locations=XC-GB
I think it shows the Euro doing the job it's supposed to do in boosting exports. Eurozone countries do better than Britain at exporting outside the EU as well. They are not just exporting to each other. The chart also shows UK exports boosted by membership of the the EEC in the early seventies, which will presumably fall back now.
According to the 12th Amendment, if no candidate gets a majority in the Electoral College, then the House of Representatives must choose from among the top three "on the list of those voted for as President". One interpretation is that if one of those three has withdrawn, then they must choose from the top two.
In China, you get thrown in jail.
(Mainly because my wife would kill me if I sold the beach house...)
It's @rcs1000 who's got a place in the Hamptons
Howard Dean
First time I've ever turned off NPR in disgust with Morning editions coverage of HRC. The media really is a disaster in this country.
Clearly NPR didn't get the DNC memo.
It's a much easier weekend commute than La Jolla.
infantile
of or occurring among babies or very young children.
synonyms: childish, babyish, immature, puerile, juvenile, adolescent;
Thom Arlo
@realDonaldTrump
Look what we have here. #SickHillary #HillarysHealth
Hillary's Body Double: Teresa Barnwell https://t.co/4CiurhFZ9M
Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.
I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
Up to now, the West has had continuing rising living standards c. 1750-2000, albeit the 1930s were one hell of a nasty hiccup in Europe, the trend has been the same.
Devaluation is no panacea, but deliberately maintaining a currency at an overvalued rate can really cripple an economy, as the Italians have discovered. Their GDP per head is no higher than 15 years ago.
A Jezza doll for the UK market could be a winner too. The foot in the mouth might make walking difficult though.
#Austria’s presidential elections postponed by another 2 months… because the glue will not stick on postal vote forms. Outstanding comedy.
However, the biggest issue is that it's pushing water uphill. Even Germany are going to start finding this sooner rather than later. The biggest cost for this industry is labour, in the UK, Europe and even US to some degree, unit labour costs are 10x higher than they are in China and SE Asia. We need to have a productivity rate at least 3-4x higher in order to justify domestic manufacturing. The UK and US have fallen badly behind which is why our industries have all moved overseas, the Germans have a few in built advantages and a few hard won advantages, a weak currency and an education system which values this work, however even those are being eroded.
What we need to do is ensure we have access to cheaper imports from outside the EU and ensure our manufacturing industry adds more value than anywhere else in the world.
Import substitution, to me, feels like a non-starter.
http://www.webmd.com/lung/walking-pneumonia#1
If Trump convinces too well that Hilary's health is failing, is that enough for voters to look at the Democratic ticket in the round and might that actually give them a poll boost?
I wonder if Hofer's ahead in the polls and they're trying to give the other chap more time. [Yes, that might sound crackpot. Until you remember the re-run is because the other chap's very narrow victory last time was due to turnouts exceeding 100%].
Sterling has been over-valued for a long time IMO, we have a huge current account deficit as Robert pointed out and the current rate feels about right.
I'm also unsure over the longer term value of a weaker currency, as the ONS pointed out our import/export prices have an almost linear relationship, as a country without natural resources, or at least a dwindling supply, any export gains based on a weaker currency will be temporary or hard won through real terms wage deflation.
Direct fiscal redistribution is running to stand still, and we will utilmately run out of cash. I think HMG needs to switch the balance of funding away from the oldies (pensions and health) and towards adult education, training and re-training and R&D and innovation support grants.
Basically, it needs to redistribute to create an energetic and dynamic working class.
MPs and staff queuing up to see what fate awaits them. #BoundaryChanges https://t.co/zhnqzEA406
A few days? a week max?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37337195
Well that passed off smoothly...
.@realDonaldTrump on Hillary's health: I hope she gets well, gets back on the trail & we'll see her at the debate https://t.co/1k8vXigpBv
Video
TBF we can't even agree on here if it is or is not
They are clearly hiding / downplaying some sort of health issue as this isn't a one off. What it is could be anything. It could just be as simple as given her previous health problems she can't do 20hrs days and run around all over the place without getting sick / run down or it could be worse.
This was a great subsidy for the forces there and the problem was usually how did you get that money back to the UK at a time of exchange rate controls. The usual answer was to buy a fancy German car, drive it back to the UK and sell it.
By 1990 and the ERM the rate was DM3 to the £. Mostly, this was because of higher inflation in the UK but there were very few signs it was doing our industry any good. What we see in Germany is that when the going gets tough, as it was in the early days of the Euro, the tough get going with more investment and higher productivity boosted by internal devaluation.
In contrast in the UK when the going gets tough our industry all too frequently disappears. I think this is because of the different structure of ownership (far fewer family firms here) and the different attitude of the banks (way more short term here). No one system is perfect as the bad debts on German balance sheets shows but their system has certainly worked a lot better than ours.
So Trump should say "I hope Hilary is feeling well and campaigning again as soon as possible." i.e. She's ill but I'm being nice. He'll probably mime someone having a stroke.
"The worst condition Hillary Clinton suffers from isn't pneumonia, it's dishonesty"
There's telling it!
I honestly don't believe a word of her explanations.
" if she even can't get through a 9/11 memorial how is she going to get through the real thing.....**
**words to the effect of as can't remember precise words or person.
I am extremely late to this thread, so please could somebody kindly answer a trivial question for me, even though it may already have been mentioned?
I watched the video in the header (transport heading left - right), and then went back & watched the same event on the previous thread (transport heading right - left).
Please, somebody, why have the images been inverted?
Why would any politician wear shades like that - especially when no one else around does? I keep seeing references to epilepsy on Twitter. I'd a greyhound with severe epilepsy - but I don't think that counts, she'd have looked really cool with them on
"If only I'd bought more pick-n-mix." Nobody is going to say "If only I'd voted for Labour more..."