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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s time to take a Trump presidency seriously – it could h

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??

    A few days? a week max?

    If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
    That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
    I may be overly suspicious but I find it a little convenient that this diagnosis comes out just after she's collapsed in public. I'm wondering if it's a political infection and there's a more serious cause that they don't want to talk about
    Her eyes must have been a mess to need those ridiculous sun glasses when no one else was wearing them. Or the body double stuff has some truth in it....That really would change the race.
    That we're even wondering if there's a doppelgänger in play is beyond strange :open_mouth:
    You'd have to be really unlucky to swap with a doppelgänger because of ill-health - only to then have the double collapse!
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    One question is how long does Hiliary have until she has to be up in front of the camera and being seen to be 'fighting fit'??

    A few days? a week max?

    If it is pneumonia then it will be a couple of weeks, at least that's what it was for my grandad. Tbh I'm not convinced that it is pneumonia, when my grandad had it my parents almost read him his last rites a week or so into his battle with it before he began to recover. Even the doctors were unsure at one point whether he would survive. My great grandfather died of it weeks before I was born.
    That is why they are claiming "walking pneumonia", a less severe form, but contagious...
    I may be overly suspicious but I find it a little convenient that this diagnosis comes out just after she's collapsed in public. I'm wondering if it's a political infection and there's a more serious cause that they don't want to talk about
    Her eyes must have been a mess to need those ridiculous sun glasses when no one else was wearing them. Or the body double stuff has some truth in it....That really would change the race.
    Maybe she just got really smashed on Saturday night and then became dehydrated on Sunday morning?
    And really likes the Ozzy Osbourne look? :lol:
  • Options
    AnneJGP said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am extremely late to this thread, so please could somebody kindly answer a trivial question for me, even though it may already have been mentioned?

    I watched the video in the header (transport heading left - right), and then went back & watched the same event on the previous thread (transport heading right - left).

    Please, somebody, why have the images been inverted?

    Hillary was trying to communicate with a MiG28?
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.

    Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month

    The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.

    Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).

    BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
    I think its is true to say that all my life the pound sterling has been quietly sinking against all other major currencies. So if devaluation were such a wonderful idea we ought to be top of the table, after all we have gone from a pound being worth more than $4 to it being a bit above $1.

    Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.

    I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
    I think that's unfair. The German economy is currently prospering on the back of a long term devalued currency and prior wage dumping.

    Sterling has been over-valued for a long time IMO, we have a huge current account deficit as Robert pointed out and the current rate feels about right.

    I'm deflation.
    Mr. Max, What the German economy is doing now (and for the last ten years or so) was not my point. The German economy was built from 1945 on the principle of sound money and not constant devaluation. So if the Germans could build an export powerhouse against a background of appreciating currency how did we end up with a declining export share, and industrial base, against a background of constant devaluation?

    Real terms wage deflation, no minimum wage, a superior primary and secondary education system and generous state subsidies. They also never had the stupidity of Blair's 50% university target.

    The Mittlestand and its ethos has been a big plus for Germany. Long-term decision making is key to building an economy which produces high-quality stuff that people want to buy.

  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    AnneJGP said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am extremely late to this thread, so please could somebody kindly answer a trivial question for me, even though it may already have been mentioned?

    I watched the video in the header (transport heading left - right), and then went back & watched the same event on the previous thread (transport heading right - left).

    Please, somebody, why have the images been inverted?

    Error on someone's part I think. Both versions are out there on the internet (that is, the inversion is not a PB special)

    I think lapel pins usually on the left it you want a clue as to which version is authentic
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    AnneJGP said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am extremely late to this thread, so please could somebody kindly answer a trivial question for me, even though it may already have been mentioned?

    I watched the video in the header (transport heading left - right), and then went back & watched the same event on the previous thread (transport heading right - left).

    Please, somebody, why have the images been inverted?

    Who knows. Maybe it is footage from our mirror Universe. To show the anti-matter Hillary also collapsed?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I've noticed that Hillary has suffered another mini-collapse on Betfair and Biden has made an appearance in the last hour, anything driving it ?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    DavidL said:

    Again it comes back to ownership. Those overpaid managers and directors in the UK are employees with no long term investment in the business. In Germany more of them will have a stake and be focussed on the long term success of the business, often on an intergenerational basis. We try to address this with share options etc but these simply seem to create further distortions such as share buybacks rather than looking to increase the size of the business. Such a mercenary attitude does not engender enthusiasm or restraint amongst the workforce.

    Agreed. The management classes have as much to answer for (if not more) wrt to the failures of our industries and short term focus. The government must take action on executive pay, I've not been in favour of it in the past, but right now I can feel hard times coming and directors are going to carry on as normal while trying to force through below inflation wage rises which will ratchet up the whole them vs us problem we already have.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    PlatoSaid said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    ''Would he get to choose a vice vice president prior to the vote ?''

    If the dems change horses midstream it will surely reflect extremely badly on their judgement. They are the party that served up Clinton to the US electorate in the first place.

    Better to stick with a mistake?
    There is no way Clinton will bow whilst she is still breathing. And possibly not even if she wasn't.
    At this rate, the last debate will be a seance.
    Lol - post of the day already :D
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    Or (c) devalue, surely? Which is why I'm a long-term sterling bear.

    Markets are down the drain today. The vibe is that there could still be a rate increase from the Fed this month

    The subtext is more interesting - ie Central Bankers are losing faith in the stimulus religion they have followed since 2008. It doesn't seem to be working.

    Devalue is (a) and (b) - it makes UK exports more attractive, while making imports more expensive (i.e., it forces up the savings rate).

    BUT. It is not a panacea. We import lots of things that are priced on the global market in dollars, and where our demand is price inelastic. Oil, steel, iron ore, natural gas, coal, etc., etc., all cost more to import when the pound is cheaper.
    I think its is true to say that all my life the pound sterling has been quietly sinking against all other major currencies. So if devaluation were such a wonderful idea we ought to be top of the table, after all we have gone from a pound being worth more than $4 to it being a bit above $1.

    Germany on the other hand rebuilt its economy based on a long term policy of sound money and an appreciating Deutsche Mark.

    I see no evidence that allowing Sterling to fall has ever really helped the economy or exports and certainly not over the medium to long term.
    I think that's unfair. The German economy is currently prospering on the back of a long term devalued currency and prior wage dumping.

    Sterling has been over-valued for a long time IMO, we have a huge current account deficit as Robert pointed out and the current rate feels about right.

    I'm deflation.
    Mr. Max, What the German economy is doing now (and for the last ten years or so) was not my point. The German economy was built from 1945 on the principle of sound money and not constant devaluation. So if the Germans could build an export powerhouse against a background of appreciating currency how did we end up with a declining export share, and industrial base, against a background of constant devaluation?

    Real terms wage deflation, no minimum wage, a superior primary and secondary education system and generous state subsidies. They also never had the stupidity of Blair's 50% university target.

    The Mittlestand and its ethos has been a big plus for Germany. Long-term decision making is key to building an economy which produces high-quality stuff that people want to buy.

    I get the feeling you and I are not very far apart on economics or industry, we just see it from differenr vantage points.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Thank you, everyone - I thought there might be some interesting technical reason.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    glw said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Fox
    .@realDonaldTrump on Hillary's health: I hope she gets well, gets back on the trail & we'll see her at the debate https://t.co/1k8vXigpBv

    Video

    Damn him, he's said almost word for word what I said he should. :(

    So Trump should say "I hope Hilary is feeling well and campaigning again as soon as possible." i.e. She's ill but I'm being nice. He'll probably mime someone having a stroke.
    That's the best indicator of Trump having a chance to win, he now follows expert media advise on public relations.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    AnneJGP said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I am extremely late to this thread, so please could somebody kindly answer a trivial question for me, even though it may already have been mentioned?

    I watched the video in the header (transport heading left - right), and then went back & watched the same event on the previous thread (transport heading right - left).

    Please, somebody, why have the images been inverted?

    Who knows. Maybe it is footage from our mirror Universe. To show the anti-matter Hillary also collapsed?
    It's Earth 2.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_go1SU1oJ0
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,304

    Barnesian said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mr. P, *sighs*

    Most people said both campaigns were full of rubbish. Does it include Remain propaganda such as global war, and the downfall of Western civilisation?

    This not not about the campaign.

    This is about how BRILLIANT everything is now we have voted.

    How much control we have taken back, and exactly how much Sovereignty per head will be bestowed upon us the the 3 Brexiteers.
    Still feel let down by democracy Scott ? Lolza.

    We love democracy. And when Jezza is democratically elected leader of Labour I presume you will join in the accepted wisdom that it was the best outcome.

    No one disputes such a decision has democratic legitimacy, nor would any sensible person disagree that it would be an idiotic one.
    Quite. Personally, I don't love democracy. It's only virtue is that it lets off steam and deters revolution. Otherwise it is deeply flawed. It leaves important decisions to a mass of ill-informed emotional people easily swayed by populists and false promises. Current practical examples included US presidential election, Brexit, Corbyn. Then there is Egypt, Turkey, Israel etc.

    I much prefer the Unilever/BP/GSK approach of appointment of leaders by their peers. It is also the Chinese method and the method used to appoint our current Prime Minister. You get competent people in charge and a stable progression. Instead we have the prospect of Trump, and the reality of Brexit. Ugh.

    Having spent a fair bit of time in China, I would take our flawed democracy over their corrupt one party state every day of the week. The problems being stored up there are immense and at some stage something will give. It will not be pleasant.

    Indeed, non-democratic systems risk a revolution
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    Speedy said:

    That's the best indicator of Trump having a chance to win, he now follows expert media advise on public relations.

    Indeed, no more fireworks.
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    .
This discussion has been closed.