politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 5% of voters show they shouldn’t be allowed out of the hous

Great bar chart - Lib Dems winning here...

Isn't 5% of voters thinking Corbyn is right wing just the " Lizardman Constant " ?

What's Gray on the chart? Don't know?

PlatoSaid said:

What happens if Hillary is too ill to continue?

Trump is stuffed.

Only Hillary can deliver victory to Trump and vice versa.

Hilary Clinton is lying...


on the ground after a collapse.

Worse for Labour is that 50% fall into categories that have broadly right wing views and 24% fall into categories that have broadly left wing views.

Mr. F, but that is self-identifying. In psychology, people are notoriously bad at self-identifying their own personality.

There's a natural tendency to drift to the middle/centre anyway.

Also, where does it show half of people falling into right wing views and 24% into left wing?

Ok so if Hillary doesn't make it to the finish line, everyone who has placed a bet on this election is stuffed.

Because in that case neither Hillary nor Trump will win.

Trump is close because Hillary is so unpopular, if she is removed then Trump doesn't have a chance.
Like wise if Trump goes, Hillary doesn't have a chance.

So mystery candidate x would win, or rather the VP picks, but how many have placed a bet on Tim Kaine or Mike Pence to win ?

PlatoSaid said:

Jennifer Epstein
Clinton campaign says HRC felt "overheated" and went to Chelsea's apartment near Madison Square Park

Another day, another incident, another excuse...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

What's Gray on the chart? Don't know?

Grey = Centre ground

So yellow = Social Democrat? Where do the Liberals go?

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

PlatoSaid said:

What happens if Hillary is too ill to continue?

It's too late now to take Clinton off the ballot. It may be different if she actually dies (I'm not sure) but if she is simply ill she would delegate her duties (on the campaign trail and in office if elected) as usual.

Yeah, too late to remove her name from the ballot.

What would happen I believe is she'd say if she won in November, she'd be inaugurated in January, but resign immediately and be replaced by Tim Kaine,

That would upset lots of people with bets on Kaine. Time to make to make sure of laying Trump rather than backing Hillary, just in case.

If Hillary goes sick, it will be a landslide for the Dems against Trump.

Oh, and Eid Mubarak

PlatoSaid said:

Fox
Statement from @HillaryClinton campaign spokesman @NickMerrill. https://t.co/oB8afu5PXX

Oh f. Trump will not let this go.

Miss Plato, that Al-Qaeda quote is special. Even for Labour.

If Jadahi Jez is right wing in some people's mind, I wonder what left wing looks like?

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

PlatoSaid said:

What happens if Hillary is too ill to continue?

It's too late now to take Clinton off the ballot. It may be different if she actually dies (I'm not sure) but if she is simply ill she would delegate her duties (on the campaign trail and in office if elected) as usual.

Yeah, too late to remove her name from the ballot.

What would happen I believe is she'd say if she won in November, she'd be inaugurated in January, but resign immediately and be replaced by Tim Kaine,

That would upset lots of people with bets on Kaine. Time to make to make sure of laying Trump rather than backing Hillary, just in case.

If Hillary goes sick, it will be a landslide for the Dems against Trump.

Oh, and Eid Mubarak

I think we need a betting market for presidential resignations.

Though Hillary and Trump have ego's the size of Jupiter.
So I doubt that they will resign on their own free will.

Charles said:

rottenborough said:

Charles said:

PlatoSaid said:

Well as black swans go, fainting at the 911 memorial is a zinger.

All the Hillary health memes now have moved from conspiracy theories to legitimate discussion point.

Google doesn't give any hits from mainstream ? Jerusalem Post most recognisable (at least to me) - others are Heat Street and BNO News

USA Today.

Google stories for "usa today clinton faints" are from December 2012

Just google 'clinton' and click news. This one is in top few hits:


http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/09/11/hillary-clinton-911-new-york-city/90223902/

Morris_Dancer said:

BBC take - she was unwell but now feeling better:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37332106

As an aside, they're both younger than when Seleucus and Lysimachus fought at the Battle of Corupedium to determine mastery of the world.

Edited extra bit: ahem, younger than Seleucus and Lysimachus were when they... etc.

FDR nearly did 4 terms.

FrancisUrquhart said:

If Jadahi Jez is right wing in some people's mind, I wonder what left wing looks like?

Stalin.

Mr. M, indeed. It's normal for individuals to identify themselves as the centre (sometimes of the universe ) and define left and right relative to their position.

That can also happen on an institutional level, such as the Catholic Church once believing the Earth was the centre of the universe. Or the view that if there's, saying, a changing climate the only possible cause must be the Evil of Man. Ahem.

A surplus "is" towards the end of the first para TSE....

FrancisUrquhart said:

How is Clinton going to manage the utterly insane schedule required of a candidate for POTUS for the next two months?

How is Clinton going to manage the utterly insane schedule required of a POTUS for the next four years?

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

How is Clinton going to manage the utterly insane schedule required of a candidate for POTUS for the next two months?

How is Clinton going to manage the utterly insane schedule required of a POTUS for the next four years?

Do what Obama does and play golf all day?

Charles said:

@Casino_Royale

Purpose of the EU Parliament vote is to allow a retrade.

You the the negotiation between heads of government. Painful concessions made in the last 6 hours, as always but it's all squared away.

You then go to the Parliament vote and they reject.

Cue sorrowful shake of the head. "Sorry. Know we had a deal & you've given away your trump cards. But now we need more or it's no deal"

Unethical, but probably effective.

Only way round it that I can see is to get Parliamentary consent at an earlier stage (e.g. on heads of terms )

That's exactly how the US negotiates except when the Administration have Fast Track authority. Final texts go to the Senate for approval, and it is sorry, but we need a little bit more. Like your soul.

John Rentoul on this thread

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/774993234590392320

TSE's natural optimism shines through once again: only 5% of the electorate should not be allowed out on their own or access to sharp implements? Ridiculous.

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

PlatoSaid said:

What happens if Hillary is too ill to continue?

It's too late now to take Clinton off the ballot. It may be different if she actually dies (I'm not sure) but if she is simply ill she would delegate her duties (on the campaign trail and in office if elected) as usual.

Yeah, too late to remove her name from the ballot.

What would happen I believe is she'd say if she won in November, she'd be inaugurated in January, but resign immediately and be replaced by Tim Kaine,

That would upset lots of people with bets on Kaine. Time to make to make sure of laying Trump rather than backing Hillary, just in case.

If Hillary goes sick, it will be a landslide for the Dems against Trump.

Oh, and Eid Mubarak

Thanks. We're celebrating it tomorrow. So glad it isn't today.

I just know Trump and Farage would be saying 'look at all those Muslims celebrating on the anniversary of 9/11'

MTimT said:

TSE Surely the data would imply Labour's ceiling, not floor, is 25% under Corbyn

On that same metric the Tory ceiling should be 30% and the LD at 45%.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

PlatoSaid said:

What happens if Hillary is too ill to continue?

It's too late now to take Clinton off the ballot. It may be different if she actually dies (I'm not sure) but if she is simply ill she would delegate her duties (on the campaign trail and in office if elected) as usual.

Yeah, too late to remove her name from the ballot.

What would happen I believe is she'd say if she won in November, she'd be inaugurated in January, but resign immediately and be replaced by Tim Kaine,

That would upset lots of people with bets on Kaine. Time to make to make sure of laying Trump rather than backing Hillary, just in case.

If Hillary goes sick, it will be a landslide for the Dems against Trump.

Oh, and Eid Mubarak

Thanks. We're celebrating it tomorrow. So glad it isn't today.

I just know Trump and Farage would be saying 'look at all those Muslims celebrating on the anniversary of 9/11'

Ha, we're just starting now in the sandpit - think I'll stay in for the next couple of days, rather than venture outside into the chaos that usually happens.

Did you go to New Anfield yesterday? The new TV camera view from the top of the stand is going to take a bit of getting used to!

Charles said:

rottenborough said:

Charles said:

PlatoSaid said:

Well as black swans go, fainting at the 911 memorial is a zinger.

All the Hillary health memes now have moved from conspiracy theories to legitimate discussion point.

Google doesn't give any hits from mainstream ? Jerusalem Post most recognisable (at least to me) - others are Heat Street and BNO News

USA Today.

Google stories for "usa today clinton faints" are from December 2012

Google for "hillary clinton on ground after collapsing" are from today.

tlg86 said:

The worst thing about the Clinton thing is that she won't stand down. She will keep on going until she's dead. Who in the Democratic Party will be prepared to have a quiet word with her?

Someone needs to show her some polling - anyone else up against Trump wins a landslide, she needs to stand aside for the good of the Democratic Party. Think of the Supreme Court Judges.

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect this is most easily explained by people confusing left and right wing. I know a few people who do that.

Also there a few on the far left who think all mainstream politicians are right-wing.

Plus a few people just messing.

RickLeventhalFoxNews ✔@RickLeventhal
MORE ON #HILLARY per witness: "unexpected early departure"; she stumbled off curb, "knees buckled", lost a shoe as she was helped into van
2:52 PM - 11 Sep 2016

This and her others previous " reported issues" does not sound like someone who should be considering running for president. If there is any ceremony in the year where total attendance is required and no candidate would ever leave unless it's seriously bad .....it's this one. It has to becoming a concern for her and family as well as to the electorate.

Speedy said:

MTimT said:

TSE Surely the data would imply Labour's ceiling, not floor, is 25% under Corbyn

On that same metric the Tory ceiling should be 30% and the LD at 45%.

No, because the Tories under May are capable of appealing to the centre, Labour under Corbyn are not.

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect this is most easily explained by people confusing left and right wing. I know a few people who do that.

Easily done because the left-right spectrum is mostly nonsense, mere tribal labels and people will support policies until they find out who proposed them, as that makes them not of the 'right' tribe, it is not who they think they should vote for, regardless of whether it accords more with their views.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

PlatoSaid said:

What happens if Hillary is too ill to continue?

It's too late now to take Clinton off the ballot. It may be different if she actually dies (I'm not sure) but if she is simply ill she would delegate her duties (on the campaign trail and in office if elected) as usual.

Yeah, too late to remove her name from the ballot.

What would happen I believe is she'd say if she won in November, she'd be inaugurated in January, but resign immediately and be replaced by Tim Kaine,

That would upset lots of people with bets on Kaine. Time to make to make sure of laying Trump rather than backing Hillary, just in case.

If Hillary goes sick, it will be a landslide for the Dems against Trump.

Oh, and Eid Mubarak

Thanks. We're celebrating it tomorrow. So glad it isn't today.

I just know Trump and Farage would be saying 'look at all those Muslims celebrating on the anniversary of 9/11'

You mean like they did on the actual date?

Speedy said:

3% think Cameron is left wing, 7% that Farage is left wing, 8% Blair is left wing.

Given the number of Hard right Tories who thought Cameron was a LD, I'm a little surprised it is only 3% who think that.

MarqueeMark said:

A surplus "is" towards the end of the first para TSE....

Only surplus an Osbornite ever achieved

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect this is most easily explained by people confusing left and right wing. I know a few people who do that.

Are those the ones who think that fascists are right wingers?

TheScreamingEagles said:

What a douchebag Trump is

https://twitter.com/politicalwire/status/774972080580354048

I disagree. I think that's a form of mourning what is gone.

"It was the tallest. Then they built the World Trade Center. And it became known as the second tallest. Now it's the tallest again"

Doesn't sound like a brag to me.

Speedy said:

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

The worst thing about the Clinton thing is that she won't stand down. She will keep on going until she's dead. Who in the Democratic Party will be prepared to have a quiet word with her?

Someone needs to show her some polling - anyone else up against Trump wins a landslide, she needs to stand aside for the good of the Democratic Party. Think of the Supreme Court Judges.

She fixed the primaries so she could win, she strong armed everyone else including Biden so that she had no effective opposition, she installed her personal friend as chair of the Democratic Party.

There is no one left to tell her to step down, she is the Democratic Party.

The only wings of the DNC that have some autonomy from her is NBC and Obama.
I doubt that Obama would publicly call for her to step down, but NBC can through it's shows.

But I also doubt that NBC has the power to force her out.

NBC cannot raise the issue - unless they know Clinton is going. Or they just run Trump's "she's not fit for the White House" schtick for him. But if they do start running with it - lay Hillary!

And the Lib Dems are on about 10%. #epicfail

I've just seen the Sky Interview with lady Bucket.

She reminds me strongly of Jezza. The same irritation with questions she doesn't like and a rant against the interviewer. No wonder they get on well.

I bet she'd be the same with the French and South Korean foreign ministers (whoever they are). No problem with the Frogs but we don't want war with South Korea, so best keep her away.

https://twitter.com/zgazda66/status/774993814025011200

kle4 said:

Speedy said:

kle4 said:

Speedy said:

3% think Cameron is left wing, 7% that Farage is left wing, 8% Blair is left wing.

Given the number of Hard right Tories who thought Cameron was a LD, I'm a little surprised it is only 3% who think that.

Even I think Cameron is a Liberal, but the public seems to think he is more right wing that either May or Farage.

Which is also weird, as I'm sure I've read pieces suggesting Cameron is indeed pretty right wing, but the reason he was successful (prior to EU) was in general people regarded as pretty centrist and benign despite being pretty right wing.

I think the public and commentariat are all very confused.

I think the public read Cameron's statements and the commentariat weighted his actions.

Statements and actions can be different, especially in politics.

David_Evershed said:

kle4 said:

Speedy said:

3% think Cameron is left wing, 7% that Farage is left wing, 8% Blair is left wing.

Given the number of Hard right Tories who thought Cameron was a LD, I'm a little surprised it is only 3% who think that.

Except Lib Dems should not be thought of as left wing but libertarians versus authoritarians (such as the Labour party). Gladstone for example was all for free markets, a small state and people spending their own money, whilst protecting those who could not look after themselves.

The LD base evaporated the instant they worked with the Tories and 'betrayed' the centre-left progressive alliance (and then got worse over the years, but the instant reaction is telling); they definitely though the LDs were left wing. Whether they should be Gladstonian liberals or not is a far cry from the question of whether the party, its activists or its voters are that, which is a question for another time.

Nevertheless, the point was actually that to some Tories Cameron was like a LD, and those people would definitely say the LDs were left wing.