politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB-UKIP race is on: Which party will split first?

Are there any lessons in the U.S. Republican Party at the moment for what might happen if Corbyn wins the leadership election?

EPG said:

Are there any lessons in the U.S. Republican Party at the moment for what might happen if Corbyn wins the leadership election?

Imagine the furore if a leading Republican said they'd like to smash Hillary Clinton back on her heels.

Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn

williamglenn said:

not_on_fire said:

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Speedy said:

As I mentioned, this trick could work only if then nomination stays in the Trump family (they can keep all the logos, the policies, Trump voters, but getting rid of Trump's manners), my recommendation would be to give it to Ivanka Trump.

Wasn't Ivanka Trump born in Kenya? ....

She is qualified by the constitution, she would be 35 years old by election day.
She would probably beat Hillary by a landslide in that she is:

A. Trump
B. Not Donald
C. A woman
D. Is a young mother
E. Liked by media

Donald Trump would probably gain a pardon from his daughter in case of conviction on his Trump University trial and of course access to the White House.

Ivanka cannot be president. She is only 34 and the consitution requires that the President is aged at least 45

"No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of 35 Years, and been 14 Years a Resident within the United States."

Rod Crosby, is that you?

SimonStClare said:

Sandpit said:

Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...

While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

williamglenn said:

not_on_fire said:

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Speedy said:

As I mentioned, this trick could work only if then nomination stays in the Trump family (they can keep all the logos, the policies, Trump voters, but getting rid of Trump's manners), my recommendation would be to give it to Ivanka Trump.

Wasn't Ivanka Trump born in Kenya? ....

She is qualified by the constitution, she would be 35 years old by election day.
She would probably beat Hillary by a landslide in that she is:

A. Trump
B. Not Donald
C. A woman
D. Is a young mother
E. Liked by media

Donald Trump would probably gain a pardon from his daughter in case of conviction on his Trump University trial and of course access to the White House.

Ivanka cannot be president. She is only 34 and the consitution requires that the President is aged at least 45

"No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of 35 Years, and been 14 Years a Resident within the United States."

Rod Crosby, is that you?

You know I'm not allowed to answer that question.

John_M said:

SimonStClare said:

Sandpit said:

Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...

Based on my Twitter timeline, UKIP members are slightly less abusive than Corbynites, but considerably madder.

"Madder" in 'madder than a wet hen'
or 'madder' as in 'swivel eyed loon'?

National - Penn Schoen Berland

Clinton 45 .. Trump 40

http://psbresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/PSB-DNC-Dial-Test-08-02-16.pdf

EPG said:

Are there any lessons in the U.S. Republican Party at the moment for what might happen if Corbyn wins the leadership election?

Well both parties will fail to win a general election for at least another decade on present trends and are both based around the cult of one man

UKIP Peoples Mandate (who? Ed) are not happy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Co8_9FIWIAEqQ-8.jpg:large

SimonStClare said:

UKIP Peoples Mandate (who? Ed) are not happy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Co8_9FIWIAEqQ-8.jpg:large

I signed up for 5 years in 2014, I wonder if I should demand my money back?

tlg86 said:

SimonStClare said:

UKIP Peoples Mandate (who? Ed) are not happy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Co8_9FIWIAEqQ-8.jpg:large

I signed up for 5 years in 2014, I wonder if I should demand my money back?

At least you'll be allowed a vote. Us poor Tories had to go without*

*Not that I cared too much really, would have voted for May anyway and backed her in from 10/1.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

SimonStClare said:

Sandpit said:

Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...

While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?

Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain

None of that is a response to the problem I had, which is if people want them to ignore such rules because the fact people want to vote for candidate x is more important, why did they bother to have the rules in the first place?

I have no antipathy toward UKIP, I want as many parties as possible to do well, but the internal processes are not presumably secret for such senior people, if they don't like them why didn't they change them, and if obeying those small rules is unimportant why should obeying the big rules be important, who makes the call which rules need to be followed and which not?

EPG said:

john_zims said:

@old_labour

'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.

A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .

Sandpit said:

EPG said:

john_zims said:

@old_labour

'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.

Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?

That would be like forced labour - a workhouse outside so to speak.

MarkSenior said:

EPG said:

john_zims said:

@old_labour

'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.

A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .

We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.

john_zims said:

@Sandpit

'Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride? '

Good point & if they can't be bothered then the unemployment benefit is withdrawn.

So they go out onto the farms and pick at a rate 10 times slower than a skilled immigrant . Do you pay them the same hourly rate , if so you need 10 times as many pickers and the fruit is no longer economical to pick .

john_zims said:

@Sandpit

'Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride? '

Good point & if they can't be bothered then the unemployment benefit is withdrawn.

Me and my sibs used to do potato picking. It's pretty hard work, but it was paid at piece rates. Lucrative if you had the stamina to work dawn till dusk. There was a knack to it. And yes, we cheerfully broke the law .

EPG said:

john_zims said:

@old_labour

'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.

Itsu staff, surely.

@MarkSenior


'So they go out onto the farms and pick at a rate 10 times slower than a skilled immigrant . Do you pay them the same hourly rate , if so you need 10 times as many pickers and the fruit is no longer economical to pick '


Nope you pay them by piece work which is a very common form of payment on farms.

But like any other job if they are useless they get fired, not so complicated ?

john_zims said:

@MarkSenior


'So they go out onto the farms and pick at a rate 10 times slower than a skilled immigrant . Do you pay them the same hourly rate , if so you need 10 times as many pickers and the fruit is no longer economical to pick '


Nope you pay them by piece work which is a very common form of payment on farms.

But like any other job if they are useless they get fired, not so complicated ?

If you're working with temporary workers in a limited time window then yes it is complicated. In any other work you try and get good employees and keep them.

ThreeQuidder said:

EPG said:

John_M said:

MarkSenior said:

EPG said:

john_zims said:

@old_labour

'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.

A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .

We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.

It has been happening before any of us were born. I did expect fear about the death of the great British jam to ensure fruit pickers were given entry, but it is hard to spot who the UK would actually want to keep out once you get down to economic reasons. All I note is that as long as immigrants keep coming to the UK from Europe, the sentiment unleashed is not going to go away, and Ukip needs a cause; connect the dots.

What do these seasonal skilled and experienced fruit pickers do the rest of the year? Aren't harvest times around Europe more or less synchronised?

"The live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in" - for the rest of the year they return home. It isn't unusual that a seasonal worker from the third world can earn more in a couple of months in the UK than they can in the rest of the year in their own nation. If that is their visa then they can do that more than once so long as they go home at the end of it if that is the requirement.

John_M said:

MarkSenior said:

John_M said:

MarkSenior said:

EPG said:

john_zims said:

@old_labour

'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.

A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .

We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.

Eventually they will stop coming just as Londoners no longer go hop picking in Kent .

I'm fine with people highlighting the terrible all-sector PMIs and the new NIESR forecast (though we beat those to death this morning).

However, these manufactured 'omg what are we going to do without immigrants' stories get a bit tedious. Particularly true of agriculture where we've had ~150 years of subsidies, price guarantees and work schemes.

What a pathetic story

runnymede said:

John_M said:

MarkSenior said:

John_M said:

MarkSenior said:

EPG said:

john_zims said:

@old_labour

'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.

A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .

We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.

Eventually they will stop coming just as Londoners no longer go hop picking in Kent .

I'm fine with people highlighting the terrible all-sector PMIs and the new NIESR forecast (though we beat those to death this morning).

However, these manufactured 'omg what are we going to do without immigrants' stories get a bit tedious. Particularly true of agriculture where we've had ~150 years of subsidies, price guarantees and work schemes.

What a pathetic story

I'm doing my best *sob*.

john_zims said:

@MarkSenior

'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

According to John_M we used immigrants before we joined the EU or broke the law and employed underage school children or both .

PlatoSaid said:

Is this broadly true?

Can't translate on my phone

Old Holborn
"Balcony Man" in Munich is being prosecuted for defamation for calling killer an arsehole

Hmm, he claimed in an interview with a German newspaper, that he’d been reported to the police and that they were investigating the matter – no charges brought as yet, or likely imo.

MTimT said:

Charles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

I expect Farage will start a new populist anti immigration party which Woolfe will lead and UKIP will be left with Carswell, Neil Hamilton and whichever nonentity they now elect to lead them and wither on the vine

Since the EU is no longer an issue they should just concentrate on being British ...

Sounds like you want them to be rather nationalist, they should put National in their name too ...

Obviously they are a Party ...

Now what name could they go for ...

When May agrees to continue free movement with controls to get some access to the single market that will be the time for an anti immigration party and the British Nationalists is as good a name as any

Why not just add the word Socialist on the end. British national socialist party. Has a nice ring to it, plus if they are going to try and appeal to traditional Labour voters then saying they are socialist is a must.

They also need to mention Workers. British Workers National Socialist Party.

Workers & National Kipper, English Regions & Socialist party?

I wonder what acronym we could use for that?

*innocent face*

runnymede said:

john_zims said:

@MarkSenior

'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

Britain, in fact, did not exist before 1973

Britain did exist - but the modern British diet did not - less pasta more spuds - more broadly Britain owned a lot of other places and there were plenty of bureaucratic jobs involved in running things abroad - such as the early career of one Sir J Major - now people come to Britain to run its things, now is different, one can never go back from now to then.

logical_song said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

SimonStClare said:

Sandpit said:

Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...

While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?

Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain

How will the UKIP 13% split between the two parties I wonder. Will Carswell retain Clacton?

At least 10% for the Farage and Woolfe lot, perhaps more if some free movement is retained, back to 3% for Carswell's lot, though he may retain Clacton through a personal vote

tlg86 said:

Sandpit said:

EPG said:

john_zims said:

@old_labour

'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.

Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?

That would be like forced labour - a workhouse outside so to speak.

No-one is forced to work, but if they're being given in some cases a couple of thousand pounds a month to be without a job, it's not unreasonable for the state to expect something in return.

The work rate is more likely to be an issue, probably resolved with piece work pay on the farms somehow made up to minimum wage. The biggest reason to do it though, is to get the lazy buggers off the sofa, even if it means them travelling and staying away during the week. Whatever else has been said about Iain Duncan Smith, his views on welfare were completely right.

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

SimonStClare said:

Sandpit said:

Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...

While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?

Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain

None of that is a response to the problem I had, which is if people want them to ignore such rules because the fact people want to vote for candidate x is more important, why did they bother to have the rules in the first place?

I have no antipathy toward UKIP, I want as many parties as possible to do well, but the internal processes are not presumably secret for such senior people, if they don't like them why didn't they change them, and if obeying those small rules is unimportant why should obeying the big rules be important, who makes the call which rules need to be followed and which not?

Farage was never one for technical details

''more broadly Britain owned a lot of other places and there were plenty of bureaucratic jobs involved in running things abroad ''

As a graduate in the early 80s I remember reading job ads for the Hong Kong police...

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

SimonStClare said:

Sandpit said:

Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...

While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?

Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain

On 5live at lunchtime they had all of the kipper leadership candidates on bar Jarvis.. Both Philip Broughton and Lisa Duffy could easily appeal in Labour seats. Bill Etheridge perhaps too.

We will see but it will be Carswell running the show and pushing for less anti immigration rhetoric and a more libertarian and small state philosophy, a platform more Kensington and Chelsea and Virginia Water than Thurrock, Hartlepool and West Bromwich and which will have a ceiling of about 5% of the vote

Speaking of dirty tricks. Donald Trumps advisors seem to be being outed in one form or another.

tlg86 said:

I see it looks as though Scotland is to get a different Six O'Clock News (funded by the general license fee, no doubt). I wonder if England will be the new cause celebre over the next few years? I think May has made an assured start to her premiership. The one concern I have is how much she cares about keeping Scotland in the Union. I'm not sure what the English Democrats are up to, but they may have an opportunity to come to prominence over the next year or two.

Scotland pays vastly more in licence fee than is spent on BBC Scotland production. Plenty of slack for a Scottish Six.

oxfordsimon said:

tlg86 said:

Woolfe on Sky News now. Sounds like he thinks dirty tricks were used.

Right. He didn't wait until the last minute to send in his forms - and the technical difficulties he claims were just part of a conspiracy then...

And he didn't fail to declare his conviction when required - which is going to land him in trouble with the Police and the Bar Council. Even though he has confessed to breaking Electoral Law.

He has no-one to blame but himself. He knew the deadline and failed to meet it. If he had done that 24 hours earlier, none of this would have happened.

Trying to paint that as a conspiracy is a pretty big stretch.

UKIP have dodged a bullet methinks.

John_M said:

runnymede said:

john_zims said:

@MarkSenior

'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

Britain, in fact, did not exist before 1973

In fairness, you'd have to be in your fifties to have any real recollection of life pre-EEC. Not really sure what the demographics of PB are in practice.

Until 1971 we had really nice money. Pounds shillings and pence. You got half a crown pocket money (2s6d) if you were lucky. Normally about 9d though. Great fun and good for mental arithmetic. Ted Heath abolished it so we could join the EEC. Now we have left we should have it back. Could be a good policy for UKIP.

Alistair said:

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

Sandpit said:

EPG said:

john_zims said:

@old_labour

'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.

Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?

That would be like forced labour - a workhouse outside so to speak.

No-one is forced to work, but if they're being given in some cases a couple of thousand pounds a month to be without a job, it's not unreasonable for the state to expect something in return.

The work rate is more likely to be an issue, probably resolved with piece work pay on the farms somehow made up to minimum wage. The biggest reason to do it though, is to get the lazy buggers off the sofa, even if it means them travelling and staying away during the week. Whatever else has been said about Iain Duncan Smith, his views on welfare were completely right.

So what happens to the children of those people then. Put into care for the duration?

Take them strawberry picking ... it happened 40-50 years ago.

It's more enjoyable than being a wageslave in a factory, which I briefly did as a summer job when at univ.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36968052

So we can sum up pb Brexiteers vision of post EU UK as having a currency worth less than the Bangla Deshi Taka and a population back working in the fields like pre Industrial Britain or Bangla Desh today .

gettingbetter said:

John_M said:

runnymede said:

john_zims said:

@MarkSenior

'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

Britain, in fact, did not exist before 1973

In fairness, you'd have to be in your fifties to have any real recollection of life pre-EEC. Not really sure what the demographics of PB are in practice.

Until 1971 we had really nice money. Pounds shillings and pence. You got half a crown pocket money (2s6d) if you were lucky. Normally about 9d though. Great fun and good for mental arithmetic. Ted Heath abolished it so we could join the EEC. Now we have left we should have it back. Could be a good policy for UKIP.

My dad would support that. He says that the day before the change over a cup of tea at the cafe near where he worked was 3 old pence. The next day it was 3 new pence. Though I guess we'd get some serious inflation if we went back again.

MarkSenior said:

So we can sum up pb Brexiteers vision of post EU UK as having a currency worth less than the Bangla Deshi Taka and a population back working in the fields like pre Industrial Britain or Bangla Desh today .

Remainers think that the EU is responsible for everything good in the 1973-2016 period.
Leavers think that the EU is responsible for everything bad in the 1973-2016 period.

So what's new ?

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

oxfordsimon said:

tlg86 said:

Woolfe on Sky News now. Sounds like he thinks dirty tricks were used.

Right. He didn't wait until the last minute to send in his forms - and the technical difficulties he claims were just part of a conspiracy then...

And he didn't fail to declare his conviction when required - which is going to land him in trouble with the Police and the Bar Council. Even though he has confessed to breaking Electoral Law.

He has no-one to blame but himself. He knew the deadline and failed to meet it. If he had done that 24 hours earlier, none of this would have happened.

Trying to paint that as a conspiracy is a pretty big stretch.

UKIP have dodged a bullet methinks.

UKIP is now Carswell Inc

Farage must be spitting blood. It takes a heart of stone...

I doubt it. History will show Farage to be the greatest politician of his generation. Okay, not saying much given the competition, but he won.

I've got good news and bad news for the Trump campaign by looking at all the post convention polls (including state polls and sub-samples).

The Good news is that he hasn't lost support outside the western USA, he is still retaining 80%+ of Romney's 2012 vote plus a sizable number of Obama 2012 switchers ~10%.
The bulk of Hillary's bounce seems to have come from California and the N.E.

The Bad news is that Trump retains only 2/3rds of Romney's 2012 vote in the west, and Hillary is not losing much of Obama's (80%+) outside the Mid-West (~70%).

Trump remains competitive east of the Mississippi river, but he's in real trouble west of that river.