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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB-UKIP race is on: Which party will split first?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited August 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB-UKIP race is on: Which party will split first?

All not happy in UKIP-Land. Faragists Vow to "Declare War on UKIP" – Guido https://t.co/OPPknzez3j

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Second
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    How have UKIP ended up with a leadership contest where none of their big hitters are involved?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    edited August 2016
    Really gutted about Woolfe being excluded because Mike's going to be unbearable with his big win on laying Woolfe I really wanted to threads headlined with 'Hungry like the Woolfe for Labour seats'
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Really gutted about Woolfe being excluded because Mike's going to be unbearable with his big win on laying Woolfe I really wanted to threads headlined with 'Hungry like the Woolfe for Labour seats

    Rainbow's 'Run with the Woolfe'. All those puns will be lost in time, like tears...in...rain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    FPT: Mr. Jim, TOCs?

    UKIP will split first. They don't have the sentimental zeal for their party that Labour sorts do.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    Fighting talk

    https://twitter.com/Tim_Aker/status/760794708004237312
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Definitely UKIP.
    These parties are polar opposites in terms of loyalty. Core Labour people are the most tribal around, the party and the flag are everything and Labour is an article of faith.

    Kippers on the other hand have usually defected from another party, and their record on council groups of splitting, reforming, falling out, and creating new parties is well established. It's completely consistent for them to split, while it's an anathema for Labour.


  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    Mr Dancer - train operating companies
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    Farage going down the Chancellor Palpatine route

    @WikiGuido: Pro-Farage/Woolfe UKIP source: There will be an Extraordinary General Meeting and the NEC will be abolished.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    DanSmith said:

    How have UKIP ended up with a leadership contest where none of their big hitters are involved?

    Well quite. Woolfe's exclusion is insane.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Jim, ah.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    UKIP have missed the boat excluding Woolfe. He could have transformed UKIP to take on Labour in the north just as they're at their most vulnerable.

    Woolfe to be fair missed the boat submitting his application late, I don't understand those who blame technical problems when submitting a last minute application, why don't you just submit a day or two early hence avoiding this risk?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2016
    UKIP MEPs not taking the decision well.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Co7jkaLW8AA5R2-.jpg:large
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:

    How have UKIP ended up with a leadership contest where none of their big hitters are involved?

    Well quite. Woolfe's exclusion is insane.
    This is why UKIP has never achieved its potential - the capacity for self-destruction, concentrated in the anorak wing - is just too great. The organisation is thoroughly unprofessional and stuffed full of would-be little Hitlers.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    FPT:
    logical_song said:

    UKIP candidates:

    Cllr Bill Etheridge MEP
    Diane James MEP
    Elizabeth Jones
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Cllr Lisa Duffy
    Phillip Broughton

    I have heard of one of these people.

    And I'm a politics geek.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNewsBreak: Update - 3 members of #Ukip National Executive Committee have resigned in protest at decision to exclude Steven Woolfe from leadership race
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    logical_song said:

    UKIP candidates:

    Cllr Bill Etheridge MEP
    Diane James MEP
    Elizabeth Jones
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Cllr Lisa Duffy
    Phillip Broughton

    I have heard of one of these people.

    And I'm a politics geek.

    Diane James has the highest profile.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    As a Barrister, Steven Woolfe should know it's not when you send it, but when the other party receives it.

    Which begs the question, why did he send it with only minutes to spare.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Leaving Woolfe off the ballot on a technicality is foot-shooting of the first water.
    G
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,985
    On the news:

    A 777 has crash-landed at Dubai. Reportedly everyone is safe, although there is some very thick smoke.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36963112

    An unusual incident with a plane that has been very reliable, with very few airframes lost.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    edited August 2016
    So it is likely that UKIP will have a woman leader before Labour does.

    We truly live in interesting times.

    Time to fire up the pink bus
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited August 2016
    runnymede said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:

    How have UKIP ended up with a leadership contest where none of their big hitters are involved?

    Well quite. Woolfe's exclusion is insane.
    This is why UKIP has never achieved its potential - the capacity for self-destruction, concentrated in the anorak wing - is just too great. The organisation is thoroughly unprofessional and stuffed full of would-be little Hitlers.
    Woolfe is clearly a liar (about his driving conviction) and also bad at organisation (too late with application). UKIP better off without him as leader.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    SimonStClare said:

    UKIP MEPs not taking the decision well.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Co7jkaLW8AA5R2-.jpg:large

    It's not in green ink.
    But it is in CAPITALS ;-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    We must applaud UKIP after a near months of extraordinary political events, news was in danger of becoming tedious. Huzzah for the purples!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Where is HYUFD today to tell us how this is good news for UKIP who will sweep to power in 2020 because of this ?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Update - 3 members of #Ukip National Executive Committee have resigned in protest at decision to exclude Steven Woolfe from leadership race

    Awkward - But what is the point of having rules if they are then going to be ignored?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,985
    UKIP appears to be in a mess. After stupid rules (e.g. the five-year membership) were imposed seemingly just to stop rivals from standing, rivals have now kyboshed Woolfe.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    MarkSenior said:

    Where is HYUFD today to tell us how this is good news for UKIP who will sweep to power in 2020 because of this ?

    Did you miss is heroic performance the other night that Steven Woolfe hadn't filled in his nomination paper for Manchester Police Commissioner incorrectly?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Update - 3 members of #Ukip National Executive Committee have resigned in protest at decision to exclude Steven Woolfe from leadership race

    Oh for pity's sake. He missed the deadline. Clearly this guy and his supporters are from that strand of thinking that says "rules only apply to other folk"
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT: Mr. Jim, TOCs?

    UKIP will split first. They don't have the sentimental zeal for their party that Labour sorts do.

    Full, respect, Mr. Dancer, but who aside from party members will give a big rat's arse? UKIP's job is done. If they are to morph into a mainstream party, rather than an enormously successful pressure group, then they have years of thinking ahead of them (which they are, in my mind, incapable of doing). Job done, they should be allowed to split and fade their way into obscurity and eventual oblivion without the embarrassment of outside attention.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SimonStClare said:

    Awkward - But what is the point of having rules if they are then going to be ignored?

    Ask the Labour MPs that nominated Corbyn...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    David_Evershed said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    logical_song said:

    UKIP candidates:

    Cllr Bill Etheridge MEP
    Diane James MEP
    Elizabeth Jones
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Cllr Lisa Duffy
    Phillip Broughton

    I have heard of one of these people.

    And I'm a politics geek.

    Diane James has the highest profile.
    Jonathan Arnott is by far the strongest chessplayer. FWIW ;)
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Update - 3 members of #Ukip National Executive Committee have resigned in protest at decision to exclude Steven Woolfe from leadership race

    Oh for pity's sake. He missed the deadline. Clearly this guy and his supporters are from that strand of thinking that says "rules only apply to other folk"
    Actually, it's not clear that he did, if he did all that was necessary to submit the application in time and the computer at the other end fouled up. There's almost certainly a genuine issue to go to court about, unlike the Foster/Corbyn nonsense.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    alex. said:

    David_Evershed said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    logical_song said:

    UKIP candidates:

    Cllr Bill Etheridge MEP
    Diane James MEP
    Elizabeth Jones
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Cllr Lisa Duffy
    Phillip Broughton

    I have heard of one of these people.

    And I'm a politics geek.

    Diane James has the highest profile.
    Jonathan Arnott is by far the strongest chessplayer. FWIW ;)
    Is he better at chess than Angela Eagle tho ?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Philip_Thompson said:

    UKIP have missed the boat excluding Woolfe. He could have transformed UKIP to take on Labour in the north just as they're at their most vulnerable.

    Woolfe to be fair missed the boat submitting his application late, I don't understand those who blame technical problems when submitting a last minute application, why don't you just submit a day or two early hence avoiding this risk?

    Good question but people just don't. I had a job once running an application process for members of one of the learned professions. Granted the application form was quite long and unwieldy but they had months to complete it and get it in. Yet every year you could bet your pension at least half would leave it until the last minute and the excuses we got from those (highly educated and presumably really clever) people who missed the boat were laughable.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:

    How have UKIP ended up with a leadership contest where none of their big hitters are involved?

    Well quite. Woolfe's exclusion is insane.
    Mr. P. why so? As I understand it he let his membership lapse, whilst at the same time behaving as if it hadn't, and possibly broke electoral law. UKIP would have been monstered on both grounds had they allowed him to stand in defiance of their own rules.

    I'll not get excited about a chap having a conviction for drink drive per se (there are in my view different levels of heinousness for this offence), but I do wonder if someone who is prepared to ignore the law in not declaring such and who is so disorganised that he cannot even keep his party subscription up to date is a fit and proper person to run anything.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    ToryJim said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
    Entryism.

    That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

    They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited August 2016
    No Woolfe is a real missed opportunity. James is easily the best of the rest and should win. She can certainly help UKIP retain their vote share but in terms of offering a threat to
    Labour I think they have missed the boat. Quite a shame the party is at war with itself.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    logical_song said:

    UKIP candidates:

    Cllr Bill Etheridge MEP
    Diane James MEP
    Elizabeth Jones
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Cllr Lisa Duffy
    Phillip Broughton

    I have heard of one of these people.

    And I'm a politics geek.
    I've heard properly (not counting this leadership election) of just two and would recognise on TV just one. Also a politics geek.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Root and Cook out.

    No more England batting left. :(
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    DanSmith said:

    How have UKIP ended up with a leadership contest where none of their big hitters are involved?

    Because their big hitter resigned.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    David_Evershed said:

    Root and Cook out.

    No more England batting left. :(

    Ahem Jonny Bairstow and Chris Woakes say hello.

    Have you seen their recent performances?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    Disappointing to see the Muslim family off Gogglebox have felt the need to apologise for having a sense of humour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    edited August 2016
    Toys leaving the pram alert

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    What is the mechanism in UKIP for removing an incumbent leader?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    David_Evershed said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    logical_song said:

    UKIP candidates:

    Cllr Bill Etheridge MEP
    Diane James MEP
    Elizabeth Jones
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Cllr Lisa Duffy
    Phillip Broughton

    I have heard of one of these people.

    And I'm a politics geek.

    Diane James has the highest profile.
    Indeed. She's the only one.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    David_Evershed said:

    Root and Cook out.

    No more England batting left. :(

    No more England "batting". But plenty of bowlers.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MichaelLCrick: Arron Banks tells me: "It's going to end in full scale civil war in Ukip. There already is full-scale civil war. Maybe Ukip's run its race."

    It does beg the question, after a Brexit vote, the point of UKIP is what exactly?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Pulpstar said:

    alex. said:

    David_Evershed said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    logical_song said:

    UKIP candidates:

    Cllr Bill Etheridge MEP
    Diane James MEP
    Elizabeth Jones
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Cllr Lisa Duffy
    Phillip Broughton

    I have heard of one of these people.

    And I'm a politics geek.

    Diane James has the highest profile.
    Jonathan Arnott is by far the strongest chessplayer. FWIW ;)
    Is he better at chess than Angela Eagle tho ?
    By a long way.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ThreeQuidder said:

    DanSmith said:

    How have UKIP ended up with a leadership contest where none of their big hitters are involved?

    Because their big hitter resigned.
    And their big hitter blocked anyone else for years from becoming a rival big hitter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Scott_P said:

    @MichaelLCrick: Arron Banks tells me: "It's going to end in full scale civil war in Ukip. There already is full-scale civil war. Maybe Ukip's run its race."

    It does beg the question, after a Brexit vote, the point of UKIP is what exactly?

    Keep the Conservatives honest on Art 50, and go after Labour in working class provincial England.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What odds a snap election now?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    Ishmael_X said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Update - 3 members of #Ukip National Executive Committee have resigned in protest at decision to exclude Steven Woolfe from leadership race

    Oh for pity's sake. He missed the deadline. Clearly this guy and his supporters are from that strand of thinking that says "rules only apply to other folk"
    Actually, it's not clear that he did, if he did all that was necessary to submit the application in time and the computer at the other end fouled up. There's almost certainly a genuine issue to go to court about, unlike the Foster/Corbyn nonsense.
    Well the other candidates managed to get themselves submitted properly. Why was he doing it so last minute? I think the episode is evidence that he probably isn't up to running a complicated organisation

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

    With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

    "Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MichaelLCrick: Arron Banks tells me: "It's going to end in full scale civil war in Ukip. There already is full-scale civil war. Maybe Ukip's run its race."

    It does beg the question, after a Brexit vote, the point of UKIP is what exactly?

    Keep the Conservatives honest on Art 50, and go after Labour in working class provincial England.
    The latter isn't a 'purpose' of UKIP per se. It might be the purpose of a party set up for to fill a void in that area.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    I am not a member of either party, Mr. Meeks, but I used to be a long term Conservative voter who has in recent years deserted and voted UKIP. I have to tell you that I probably shan't vote for UKIP again but it will be a very cold day in Hell before I vote Conservative once more.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MichaelLCrick: Arron Banks tells me: "It's going to end in full scale civil war in Ukip. There already is full-scale civil war. Maybe Ukip's run its race."

    It does beg the question, after a Brexit vote, the point of UKIP is what exactly?

    Keep the Conservatives honest on Art 50, and go after Labour in working class provincial England.
    Arron banks has been quite open for a while about replacing UKIP with another party. It's quite likely to happen I think. The anoraks with their sandwiches and flasks and lengthy agendas will be left out in the cold.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    I know he's not on the ballot but I couldn't resist taking the £2 on Flynn at 1000.0
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Mike Smithson ‎@MSmithsonPB


    .@LadPolitics make it evens that Farage will resign to join a new political party before the end of 2016

    Can I bet against that?

    I'll take 5/6
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    @Kevin_Maguire: If Steven Woolfe can "forget" a drink-driving conviction he'll soon forget other errors barred him from Ukip's leadership race
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
    Entryism.

    That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

    They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom
    The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules ;)
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
    Entryism.

    That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

    They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom
    The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules ;)
    The MPs are also quite a powerful safeguard against entryism/the membership managing to put in place an inappropriate leader (see IDS)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

    With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

    "Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.
    A split in UKIP would add to May's joys immensely.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,407
    edited August 2016
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
    Entryism.

    That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

    They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom
    The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules ;)
    I know, but I'm worried about the next Tory leadership contest, which, if we're lucky wont happen until 2025 ish but our decent rules didn't stop IDS becoming leader
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

    With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

    "Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.
    Arron Banks talked months ago about changing UKIP into another Party/making it an enormous pressure group. He's got all the GrassrootsOut data and loads of money.

    Given he's the one backing Woolfe et al - I can see him doing this.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rottenborough said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

    With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

    "Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.
    A split in UKIP would add to May's joys immensely.
    Lib Dems beware, lest Theresa May's Sauronic eye fall upon thee, to your enduring and utter woe.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    alex. said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
    Entryism.

    That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

    They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom
    The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules ;)
    The MPs are also quite a powerful safeguard against entryism/the membership managing to put in place an inappropriate leader (see IDS)
    Indeed and the principal determination of the timing and rules of leadership contests resides with the 1922 committee not the board.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Update - 3 members of #Ukip National Executive Committee have resigned in protest at decision to exclude Steven Woolfe from leadership race

    Oh for pity's sake. He missed the deadline. Clearly this guy and his supporters are from that strand of thinking that says "rules only apply to other folk"
    Actually, it's not clear that he did, if he did all that was necessary to submit the application in time and the computer at the other end fouled up. There's almost certainly a genuine issue to go to court about, unlike the Foster/Corbyn nonsense.
    Well the other candidates managed to get themselves submitted properly. Why was he doing it so last minute? I think the episode is evidence that he probably isn't up to running a complicated organisation

    We don't know the circumstances. He could legitimately have been waiting on circumstances beyond his control prior to pushing the button. But it is reasonable to assume that deadline T actually means T, not T minus 24 because our computers are useless.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    PlatoSaid said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

    With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

    "Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.
    Arron Banks talked months ago about changing UKIP into another Party/making it an enormous pressure group. He's got all the GrassrootsOut data and loads of money.

    Given he's the one backing Woolfe et al - I can see him doing this.
    Even UKIP is a pretty strong brand of sorts. Putting a new competitor party in place would be a considerable challenge. Actually much easier for a Labour type split to attempt because if they had a large number of MPs that would automatically provide them with a substantial media profile to build up exposure and a new 'brand'.

    How many votes did the referendum party get? And that was hardly short of money.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    I'm all for Banks starting another party.

    More betting opportunities.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
    Entryism.

    That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

    They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom
    The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules ;)
    I know, but I'm worried about the next Tory leadership contest, which, if we're lucky wont happen until 2025 ish but our decent rules didn't stop IDS becoming leader
    No but they meant the MPs could get rid of him sharpish.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited August 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
    Entryism.

    That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

    They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom
    The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules ;)
    I know, but I'm worried about the next Tory leadership contest, which, if we're lucky wont happen until 2025 ish but our decent rules didn't stop IDS becoming leader
    I would have thought that TM will stand down midway through the next Parliament, say 2023. Who here replacement will be, God only knows, I would expect someone from the 2010 intake who will by then have risen through the ranks. Though, I still fancy Priti Patel.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    rottenborough said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

    With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

    "Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.
    A split in UKIP would add to May's joys immensely.
    Not if WWC voters especially in the North go back to supporting Labour.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    In my experience with Kippers who defected from the Tory Party their common trait was an hysterical approach to politics. This seems to be reinforced when they exhibit the same tendencies even when it could be said that they won the argument.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alex. said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

    With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

    "Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.
    Arron Banks talked months ago about changing UKIP into another Party/making it an enormous pressure group. He's got all the GrassrootsOut data and loads of money.

    Given he's the one backing Woolfe et al - I can see him doing this.
    Even UKIP is a pretty strong brand of sorts. Putting a new competitor party in place would be a considerable challenge. Actually much easier for a Labour type split to attempt because if they had a large number of MPs that would automatically provide them with a substantial media profile to build up exposure and a new 'brand'.

    How many votes did the referendum party get? And that was hardly short of money.
    Even UKIP is a pretty weak brand of sorts. UKIP have never in their entire history won seat at an election except for when the incumbent defected to them.

    The idea they were going to start winning (unless someone like Labour abandoned the field) post-Brexit was always for the fairies, the idea that a new party would without the EU as an issue is absurd.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PeterMannionMP: Paul Nuttall doesn't run; Suzanne Evans gets barred; Steven Woolfe can't get form in on time; Diane James has freak lawnmower accident #ukip
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
    Entryism.

    That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

    They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom
    The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules ;)
    I know, but I'm worried about the next Tory leadership contest, which, if we're lucky wont happen until 2025 ish but our decent rules didn't stop IDS becoming leader
    No but they meant the MPs could get rid of him sharpish.
    The Tories are in the sweet spot. We have Labour with too many voters, thus prone to entryism. We have UKIP's NEC which is too small and cliquey to act in accordance with party interests. Then you have the Tories, like Goldilocks, just right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    UKIP needs to dissolve the NEC and Flynn chuck his hat in the ring :)
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Woolfe was strongly backed by Nigel Farage, who criticised his party’s NEC just days ago

    "I have been fought at every step of the way by total amateurs who come to London once a month with sandwiches in their rucksacks, to attend NEC meetings that normally last seven hours."

    Looks like Farage’s rubbishing of his own party’s NEC didn’t help Woolfe's chances,

    And now UKIP NEC members have resigned in protest.

    A whelk stall springs to mind.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The wails of anguish from the left are growing...

    @charlotteahenry: Imagine if both Tories & UKIP have female leader while Labour don't have woman on ballot & no female Lib Dem MP. https://t.co/F85s27VrQp
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited August 2016
    Scott_P said:

    The wails of anguish from the left are growing...

    @charlotteahenry: Imagine if both Tories & UKIP have female leader while Labour don't have woman on ballot & no female Lib Dem MP. https://t.co/F85s27VrQp

    The most left wing party in England has a female leader though.. so do the SNP and Plaid..
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Scott_P said:

    @PeterMannionMP: Paul Nuttall doesn't run; Suzanne Evans gets barred; Steven Woolfe can't get form in on time; Diane James has freak lawnmower accident #ukip

    Has someone in UKIP circles adopted a small boy, name of Damian? Asking for a friend.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,985
    PlatoSaid said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

    With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

    "Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.
    Arron Banks talked months ago about changing UKIP into another Party/making it an enormous pressure group. He's got all the GrassrootsOut data and loads of money.

    Given he's the one backing Woolfe et al - I can see him doing this.
    Would there be legal issues with Grassroots Out data being used by another organisation? If it has been collected by Grassroots Out for their purposes, can it be transferred?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    SimonStClare said:

    Woolfe was strongly backed by Nigel Farage, who criticised his party’s NEC just days ago

    "I have been fought at every step of the way by total amateurs who come to London once a month with sandwiches in their rucksacks, to attend NEC meetings that normally last seven hours."

    Looks like Farage’s rubbishing of his own party’s NEC didn’t help Woolfe's chances,

    And now UKIP NEC members have resigned in protest.

    A whelk stall springs to mind.

    Did Farage in an unguarded moment ever refer to the membership as being dominated by swivel-eyed fruitcakes, by any chance?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    Scott_P said:

    The wails of anguish from the left are growing...

    @charlotteahenry: Imagine if both Tories & UKIP have female leader while Labour don't have woman on ballot & no female Lib Dem MP. https://t.co/F85s27VrQp

    The Lib Dem Commons team is incredibly diverse being as it is 8 middle aged white men.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    The most left wing party in England has a female leader though.. so do the SNP and Plaid..

    And nobody cares...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998
    Philip_Thompson said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    DanSmith said:

    How have UKIP ended up with a leadership contest where none of their big hitters are involved?

    Because their big hitter resigned.
    And their big hitter blocked anyone else for years from becoming a rival big hitter.
    Also like Labour.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
    Entryism.

    That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

    They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom
    The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules ;)
    I know, but I'm worried about the next Tory leadership contest, which, if we're lucky wont happen until 2025 ish but our decent rules didn't stop IDS becoming leader
    IDS won because of what he wasn't. He wasn't a headbanger europhile like Ken. You know that. Now that we're heading out of the EU I find it hard to believe the Leadbangers will get a look in.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Please god no - they'd try to bring Leadsom back :)
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    JosiasJessop said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

    With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

    "Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.
    Arron Banks talked months ago about changing UKIP into another Party/making it an enormous pressure group. He's got all the GrassrootsOut data and loads of money.

    Given he's the one backing Woolfe et al - I can see him doing this.
    Would there be legal issues with Grassroots Out data being used by another organisation? If it has been collected by Grassroots Out for their purposes, can it be transferred?
    Depends on the terms of their data protection registration. What did they say they were collecting the data for and who did they say they were going to give it to. I would doubt it could be legally transferred, but the wording will be the important thing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    This seems apt today again:

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/ukip-announces-unclear-plans-for-drinking-session-in-brewery-20160802111730
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    alex. said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Woolfe was strongly backed by Nigel Farage, who criticised his party’s NEC just days ago
    "I have been fought at every step of the way by total amateurs who come to London once a month with sandwiches in their rucksacks, to attend NEC meetings that normally last seven ours."
    Looks like Farage’s rubbishing of his own party’s NEC didn’t help Woolfe's chances,
    And now UKIP NEC members have resigned in protest.

    A whelk stall springs to mind.

    Did Farage in an unguarded moment ever refer to the membership as being dominated by swivel-eyed fruitcakes, by any chance?
    I couldn’t possibly say Mr Alex – certainly not since the swivel-eyed fruitcake stood down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    edited August 2016
    I expect Farage will start a new populist anti immigration party which Woolfe will lead and UKIP will be left with Carswell, Neil Hamilton and whichever nonentity they now elect to lead them and wither on the vine
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    On topic. Can someone explain why UKIP are so desperate to distance themselves from Farage/Woolf? Farage made them what they are today and on paper Woolf seems like the ideal candidate foe UKIP. I'm not a big fan of Nigel but no one can deny the effect he has had on British politics, without him we would not have voted to leave the EU. A candidate who can keep that going and dump some of the negatives would probably be quite successful.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    John_M said:

    rottenborough said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

    With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

    "Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.
    A split in UKIP would add to May's joys immensely.
    Lib Dems beware, lest Theresa May's Sauronic eye fall upon thee, to your enduring and utter woe.
    A LD split into factions would be...an achievement!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

    Not sure why they'd do that.
    Entryism.

    That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

    They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom
    The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules ;)
    I know, but I'm worried about the next Tory leadership contest, which, if we're lucky wont happen until 2025 ish but our decent rules didn't stop IDS becoming leader
    IDS won because of what he wasn't. He wasn't a headbanger europhile like Ken. You know that. Now that we're heading out of the EU I find it hard to believe the Leadbangers will get a look in.
    For now at least it looks like they may as well declare Theresa May PM for life anyway
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2016
    HYUFD said:

    I expect Farage will start a new populist anti immigration party which Woolfe will lead and UKIP will be left with Carswell, Neil Hamilton and whichever nonentity they now elect to lead them and wither on the vine

    Since the EU is no longer an issue they should just concentrate on being British ...

    Sounds like you want them to be rather nationalist, they should put National in their name too ...

    Obviously they are a Party ...

    Now what name could they go for ...
This discussion has been closed.