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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB-UKIP race is on: Which party will split first?

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  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/08/03/brexit-britain-needs-ukip-to-get-its-act-together/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Contrary to appearances, the process of selecting a new leader for the UK Independence Party is not a joke

    Ok then.

    "Next Ukip leader | Who are the bookies backing?" should say "Next Ukip leader | Whom are the bookies laying?" and would still be a bloody silly question.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,033
    Are there any lessons in the U.S. Republican Party at the moment for what might happen if Corbyn wins the leadership election?
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    EPG said:

    Are there any lessons in the U.S. Republican Party at the moment for what might happen if Corbyn wins the leadership election?

    Imagine the furore if a leading Republican said they'd like to smash Hillary Clinton back on her heels.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    Based on my Twitter timeline, UKIP members are slightly less abusive than Corbynites, but considerably madder.
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited August 2016
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited August 2016
    Tedious. We've been bringing seasonal workers over for the harvest since Adam was a lad. Journalists are morons.
  • Options

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    As I mentioned, this trick could work only if then nomination stays in the Trump family (they can keep all the logos, the policies, Trump voters, but getting rid of Trump's manners), my recommendation would be to give it to Ivanka Trump.

    Wasn't Ivanka Trump born in Kenya? .... :smiley:

    She is qualified by the constitution, she would be 35 years old by election day.
    She would probably beat Hillary by a landslide in that she is:

    A. Trump
    B. Not Donald
    C. A woman
    D. Is a young mother
    E. Liked by media

    Donald Trump would probably gain a pardon from his daughter in case of conviction on his Trump University trial and of course access to the White House.
    Ivanka cannot be president. She is only 34 and the consitution requires that the President is aged at least 45
    "No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of 35 Years, and been 14 Years a Resident within the United States."
    Rod Crosby, is that you? :lol:
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    John_M said:

    This is so annoying. We've been bringing seasonal workers over for the harvest since Adam was a lad. Journalists are morons.
    That particular journalist looks like a smug faced git, usually writes about alternative energy. Stuff on the lines that a few solar panels will supply energy to 5 billion homes at little cost.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,050

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    As I mentioned, this trick could work only if then nomination stays in the Trump family (they can keep all the logos, the policies, Trump voters, but getting rid of Trump's manners), my recommendation would be to give it to Ivanka Trump.

    Wasn't Ivanka Trump born in Kenya? .... :smiley:

    She is qualified by the constitution, she would be 35 years old by election day.
    She would probably beat Hillary by a landslide in that she is:

    A. Trump
    B. Not Donald
    C. A woman
    D. Is a young mother
    E. Liked by media

    Donald Trump would probably gain a pardon from his daughter in case of conviction on his Trump University trial and of course access to the White House.
    Ivanka cannot be president. She is only 34 and the consitution requires that the President is aged at least 45
    "No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of 35 Years, and been 14 Years a Resident within the United States."
    Rod Crosby, is that you? :lol:
    You know I'm not allowed to answer that question. ;)
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    This is so annoying. We've been bringing seasonal workers over for the harvest since Adam was a lad. Journalists are morons.
    That particular journalist looks like a smug faced git, usually writes about alternative energy. Stuff on the lines that a few solar panels will supply energy to 5 billion homes at little cost.
    Up until a couple of years ago, we had the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme which was an evolution of the old pre-EEC schemes. At the end it was only used as part of the transitional controls for the A2.

    It would be trivial to reintroduce it.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727
    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    Based on my Twitter timeline, UKIP members are slightly less abusive than Corbynites, but considerably madder.
    "Madder" in 'madder than a wet hen'
    or 'madder' as in 'swivel eyed loon'?
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited August 2016

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    Based on my Twitter timeline, UKIP members are slightly less abusive than Corbynites, but considerably madder.
    "Madder" in 'madder than a wet hen'
    or 'madder' as in 'swivel eyed loon'?
    Please understand that they're all mad. It's a question of degrees. Corbynites generally manage to retain the ability to spell. UKIP are ALL ABOUT THE FUCKING BLOCK CAPITALS CARSWELL YOU C*NT etc.

    However, Corbynites were abusing a 9 year old girl (on Twitter I hasten to add) who chose Maggie as her specialist subject on some TV program I wot not of. Truly, deeply unpleasant people.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National - Penn Schoen Berland

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 40

    http://psbresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/PSB-DNC-Dial-Test-08-02-16.pdf
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2016
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?
    Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    EPG said:

    Are there any lessons in the U.S. Republican Party at the moment for what might happen if Corbyn wins the leadership election?

    Well both parties will fail to win a general election for at least another decade on present trends and are both based around the cult of one man
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2016
    UKIP Peoples Mandate (who? Ed) are not happy.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Co8_9FIWIAEqQ-8.jpg:large
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SeanT.
    .
    'Of course Merkel's insane policies have allowed in terrorists. Hundreds of them. One of them bombed Paris. Read more here:

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/08/04/world/middleeast/isis-german-recruit-interview.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&referer=https://t.co/jmIL33eZn4&_r=1'


    Could be as high as 1 in 50 refugees are terrorists.

    1 in 50 Syrian refugees in Europe could be an Isis ... - The Independent
    www.independent.co.uk › News › World › Middle East
    15 Sep 2015 - One in 50 Syrian refugees entering Europe could be member of Isis, ... Mr Saab said he had no firm information on terrorist infiltration of ...

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207

    UKIP Peoples Mandate (who? Ed) are not happy.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Co8_9FIWIAEqQ-8.jpg:large

    I signed up for 5 years in 2014, I wonder if I should demand my money back? :D
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,033
    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited August 2016
    tlg86 said:

    UKIP Peoples Mandate (who? Ed) are not happy.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Co8_9FIWIAEqQ-8.jpg:large

    I signed up for 5 years in 2014, I wonder if I should demand my money back? :D
    At least you'll be allowed a vote. Us poor Tories had to go without*

    *Not that I cared too much really, would have voted for May anyway and backed her in from 10/1. ;)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Farage and Woolfe are, just not with the brand they originally intended
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,050
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?
    Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain
    None of that is a response to the problem I had, which is if people want them to ignore such rules because the fact people want to vote for candidate x is more important, why did they bother to have the rules in the first place?

    I have no antipathy toward UKIP, I want as many parties as possible to do well, but the internal processes are not presumably secret for such senior people, if they don't like them why didn't they change them, and if obeying those small rules is unimportant why should obeying the big rules be important, who makes the call which rules need to be followed and which not?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited August 2016
    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?
    They did that for a TV program once. The twelve of them did the work of one Eastern European, or something.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?
    That would be like forced labour - a workhouse outside so to speak.
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Sandpit

    'Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride? '

    Good point & if they can't be bothered then the unemployment benefit is withdrawn.


  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .
    We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

    Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?
    They did that for a TV program once. The twelve of them did the work of one Eastern European, or something.
    I watched that - it was piece work cutting asparagus. Most didn't turn back up on Day 2, absolutely back breaking if you're not used to it and their work rate was so slow that they'd earn less than their dole money.

    The Eastern Europeans were like Trojans and very fast. I think the longest lasting Brit made it to Day 4.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    john_zims said:

    @Sandpit

    'Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride? '

    Good point & if they can't be bothered then the unemployment benefit is withdrawn.


    So they go out onto the farms and pick at a rate 10 times slower than a skilled immigrant . Do you pay them the same hourly rate , if so you need 10 times as many pickers and the fruit is no longer economical to pick .
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,033
    John_M said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .
    We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

    Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.
    It has been happening before any of us were born. I did expect fear about the death of the great British jam to ensure fruit pickers were given entry, but it is hard to spot who the UK would actually want to keep out once you get down to economic reasons. All I note is that as long as immigrants keep coming to the UK from Europe, the sentiment unleashed is not going to go away, and Ukip needs a cause; connect the dots.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    john_zims said:

    @Sandpit

    'Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride? '

    Good point & if they can't be bothered then the unemployment benefit is withdrawn.


    Me and my sibs used to do potato picking. It's pretty hard work, but it was paid at piece rates. Lucrative if you had the stamina to work dawn till dusk. There was a knack to it. And yes, we cheerfully broke the law :).
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    John_M said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .
    We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

    Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.
    Eventually they will stop coming just as Londoners no longer go hop picking in Kent .
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    edited August 2016
    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Itsu staff, surely.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .
    We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

    Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.
    Eventually they will stop coming just as Londoners no longer go hop picking in Kent .
    I'm fine with people highlighting the terrible all-sector PMIs and the new NIESR forecast (though we beat those to death this morning).

    However, these manufactured 'omg what are we going to do without immigrants' stories get a bit tedious. Particularly true of agriculture where we've had ~150 years of subsidies, price guarantees and work schemes.
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited August 2016
    @MarkSenior


    'So they go out onto the farms and pick at a rate 10 times slower than a skilled immigrant . Do you pay them the same hourly rate , if so you need 10 times as many pickers and the fruit is no longer economical to pick '


    Nope you pay them by piece work which is a very common form of payment on farms.

    But like any other job if they are useless they get fired, not so complicated ?

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited August 2016
    Tyson Fury: World heavyweight champion faces UK Anti-Doping charge

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/boxing/36970816
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    EPG said:

    John_M said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .
    We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

    Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.
    It has been happening before any of us were born. I did expect fear about the death of the great British jam to ensure fruit pickers were given entry, but it is hard to spot who the UK would actually want to keep out once you get down to economic reasons. All I note is that as long as immigrants keep coming to the UK from Europe, the sentiment unleashed is not going to go away, and Ukip needs a cause; connect the dots.
    What do these seasonal skilled and experienced fruit pickers do the rest of the year? Aren't harvest times around Europe more or less synchronised?
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?
    Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain
    How will the UKIP 13% split between the two parties I wonder. Will Carswell retain Clacton?
  • Options
    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior


    'So they go out onto the farms and pick at a rate 10 times slower than a skilled immigrant . Do you pay them the same hourly rate , if so you need 10 times as many pickers and the fruit is no longer economical to pick '


    Nope you pay them by piece work which is a very common form of payment on farms.

    But like any other job if they are useless they get fired, not so complicated ?

    If you're working with temporary workers in a limited time window then yes it is complicated. In any other work you try and get good employees and keep them.
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @John_M

    'Me and my sibs used to do potato picking. It's pretty hard work, but it was paid at piece rates. Lucrative if you had the stamina to work dawn till dusk. There was a knack to it. And yes, we cheerfully broke the law :).'

    Farm work kept me in holiday jobs throughout my teens,hard work but great to be outside.

  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Is this broadly true?

    Can't translate on my phone

    Old Holborn
    "Balcony Man" in Munich is being prosecuted for defamation for calling killer an arsehole

    https://t.co/k8smJki0zD

    https://t.co/0Y2baRelvx
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior


    'So they go out onto the farms and pick at a rate 10 times slower than a skilled immigrant . Do you pay them the same hourly rate , if so you need 10 times as many pickers and the fruit is no longer economical to pick '


    Nope you pay them by piece work which is a very common form of payment on farms.

    But like any other job if they are useless they get fired, not so complicated ?

    Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .
  • Options

    EPG said:

    John_M said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .
    We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

    Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.
    It has been happening before any of us were born. I did expect fear about the death of the great British jam to ensure fruit pickers were given entry, but it is hard to spot who the UK would actually want to keep out once you get down to economic reasons. All I note is that as long as immigrants keep coming to the UK from Europe, the sentiment unleashed is not going to go away, and Ukip needs a cause; connect the dots.
    What do these seasonal skilled and experienced fruit pickers do the rest of the year? Aren't harvest times around Europe more or less synchronised?
    "The live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in" - for the rest of the year they return home. It isn't unusual that a seasonal worker from the third world can earn more in a couple of months in the UK than they can in the rest of the year in their own nation. If that is their visa then they can do that more than once so long as they go home at the end of it if that is the requirement.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    EPG said:

    John_M said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .
    We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

    Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.
    It has been happening before any of us were born. I did expect fear about the death of the great British jam to ensure fruit pickers were given entry, but it is hard to spot who the UK would actually want to keep out once you get down to economic reasons. All I note is that as long as immigrants keep coming to the UK from Europe, the sentiment unleashed is not going to go away, and Ukip needs a cause; connect the dots.
    What do these seasonal skilled and experienced fruit pickers do the rest of the year? Aren't harvest times around Europe more or less synchronised?
    I only know a couple. They both had what we'd consider smallholdings, but primarily livestock rather than arable. UK harvest was how they generated cash. Rest of the time, working their own land.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .
    We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

    Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.
    Eventually they will stop coming just as Londoners no longer go hop picking in Kent .
    I'm fine with people highlighting the terrible all-sector PMIs and the new NIESR forecast (though we beat those to death this morning).

    However, these manufactured 'omg what are we going to do without immigrants' stories get a bit tedious. Particularly true of agriculture where we've had ~150 years of subsidies, price guarantees and work schemes.
    What a pathetic story
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MarkSenior

    'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


    I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    runnymede said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    A skilled and experienced fruit pickers can pick fruit 10 times as fast as you or I could , so yes they are skilled .
    We have about 4,000 over in Herefordshire every year. They live on the farms and return whence they came after the harvest is in. That's been happening since before I was born.

    Always amusing to see the metropolitan types cudgeling their brains trying to understand where the food comes from. We used SAWS before the EU, and we'll use it after the EU.
    Eventually they will stop coming just as Londoners no longer go hop picking in Kent .
    I'm fine with people highlighting the terrible all-sector PMIs and the new NIESR forecast (though we beat those to death this morning).

    However, these manufactured 'omg what are we going to do without immigrants' stories get a bit tedious. Particularly true of agriculture where we've had ~150 years of subsidies, price guarantees and work schemes.
    What a pathetic story
    I'm doing my best *sob*.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited August 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Is this broadly true?

    Can't translate on my phone

    Old Holborn
    "Balcony Man" in Munich is being prosecuted for defamation for calling killer an arsehole

    https://t.co/k8smJki0zD

    https://t.co/0Y2baRelvx

    No idea if it is true in terms of being prosecuted, but he called him much more than arsehole or wanker. He basically racially abused him, called him a f##king foreigner and an unseen person called him a f##king turk.

    Hence why the killer then started going on about being born in Germany ane being bullied by people like him, and the media got half a story and jumped on the right wing extremist thing, because why else would a guy be ranting and raving about being German born.

    Since then he also said he would have shot him if he had a gun and the general tone of when I saw him interviewed was he wasn't exactly fond of foreigners.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


    I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

    According to John_M we used immigrants before we joined the EU or broke the law and employed underage school children or both .
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    "he committed the party to pushing the minimum wage up to £8.25 and forcing employers to give it to all adults on the payroll, not just those over 25 - to be funded by tax increases for the highest-earners in society and businesses."

    Huh...so tax businesses more to pay for businesses to pay their employees more. How does that one work then?

    magic money tree
    Presumably he's talking about how the government will pay for the resultant wage increase in the NHS.

    (Actually - that's what he should be talking about. I suspect he's just a numpty who doesn't have a f***ing clue)
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    PlatoSaid said:

    Is this broadly true?

    Can't translate on my phone

    Old Holborn
    "Balcony Man" in Munich is being prosecuted for defamation for calling killer an arsehole

    Hmm, he claimed in an interview with a German newspaper, that he’d been reported to the police and that they were investigating the matter – no charges brought as yet, or likely imo.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


    I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

    Britain, in fact, did not exist before 1973
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I expect Farage will start a new populist anti immigration party which Woolfe will lead and UKIP will be left with Carswell, Neil Hamilton and whichever nonentity they now elect to lead them and wither on the vine

    Since the EU is no longer an issue they should just concentrate on being British ...

    Sounds like you want them to be rather nationalist, they should put National in their name too ...

    Obviously they are a Party ...

    Now what name could they go for ...
    When May agrees to continue free movement with controls to get some access to the single market that will be the time for an anti immigration party and the British Nationalists is as good a name as any
    Why not just add the word Socialist on the end. British national socialist party. Has a nice ring to it, plus if they are going to try and appeal to traditional Labour voters then saying they are socialist is a must.
    They also need to mention Workers. British Workers National Socialist Party.
    Workers & National Kipper, English Regions & Socialist party?
    I wonder what acronym we could use for that?
    *innocent face*
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


    I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

    According to John_M we used immigrants before we joined the EU or broke the law and employed underage school children or both .
    Originally, summer school holidays were so long precisely so children could help with the harvest. In terms of the law, we were mostly 14 or older, it was the hours worked that were in breach.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,033
    runnymede said:

    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


    I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

    Britain, in fact, did not exist before 1973
    Britain did exist - but the modern British diet did not - less pasta more spuds - more broadly Britain owned a lot of other places and there were plenty of bureaucratic jobs involved in running things abroad - such as the early career of one Sir J Major - now people come to Britain to run its things, now is different, one can never go back from now to then.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?
    Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain
    On 5live at lunchtime they had all of the kipper leadership candidates on bar Jarvis.. Both Philip Broughton and Lisa Duffy could easily appeal in Labour seats. Bill Etheridge perhaps too.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2016

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?
    Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain
    How will the UKIP 13% split between the two parties I wonder. Will Carswell retain Clacton?
    At least 10% for the Farage and Woolfe lot, perhaps more if some free movement is retained, back to 3% for Carswell's lot, though he may retain Clacton through a personal vote
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    runnymede said:

    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


    I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

    Britain, in fact, did not exist before 1973
    In fairness, you'd have to be in your fifties to have any real recollection of life pre-EEC. Not really sure what the demographics of PB are in practice.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?
    That would be like forced labour - a workhouse outside so to speak.
    No-one is forced to work, but if they're being given in some cases a couple of thousand pounds a month to be without a job, it's not unreasonable for the state to expect something in return.

    The work rate is more likely to be an issue, probably resolved with piece work pay on the farms somehow made up to minimum wage. The biggest reason to do it though, is to get the lazy buggers off the sofa, even if it means them travelling and staying away during the week. Whatever else has been said about Iain Duncan Smith, his views on welfare were completely right.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?
    That would be like forced labour - a workhouse outside so to speak.
    No-one is forced to work, but if they're being given in some cases a couple of thousand pounds a month to be without a job, it's not unreasonable for the state to expect something in return.

    The work rate is more likely to be an issue, probably resolved with piece work pay on the farms somehow made up to minimum wage. The biggest reason to do it though, is to get the lazy buggers off the sofa, even if it means them travelling and staying away during the week. Whatever else has been said about Iain Duncan Smith, his views on welfare were completely right.
    But how will they be able to afford toothpaste....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?
    Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain
    None of that is a response to the problem I had, which is if people want them to ignore such rules because the fact people want to vote for candidate x is more important, why did they bother to have the rules in the first place?

    I have no antipathy toward UKIP, I want as many parties as possible to do well, but the internal processes are not presumably secret for such senior people, if they don't like them why didn't they change them, and if obeying those small rules is unimportant why should obeying the big rules be important, who makes the call which rules need to be followed and which not?
    Farage was never one for technical details
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?
    Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain
    On 5live at lunchtime they had all of the kipper leadership candidates on bar Jarvis.. Both Philip Broughton and Lisa Duffy could easily appeal in Labour seats. Bill Etheridge perhaps too.
    Surprisingly Broughton ran Labour pretty close at the 2015 general election. His Loadsamoney video is quite weird:

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/760221110189252608
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''more broadly Britain owned a lot of other places and there were plenty of bureaucratic jobs involved in running things abroad ''

    As a graduate in the early 80s I remember reading job ads for the Hong Kong police...
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    I see it looks as though Scotland is to get a different Six O'Clock News (funded by the general license fee, no doubt). I wonder if England will be the new cause celebre over the next few years? I think May has made an assured start to her premiership. The one concern I have is how much she cares about keeping Scotland in the Union. I'm not sure what the English Democrats are up to, but they may have an opportunity to come to prominence over the next year or two.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Do we have any demographic information on UKIP *members* available anywhere?

    As we've seen with Labour, the politicians, members and voters can be three very different groups of people, the more we know about UKIP members the more likely we are to predict the right result.

    Based on today’s events, the UKIP membership is angry with the NEC for doing its job, their MP has been accused of plotting a coup and the leadership has walked out and left them to it. - Apart from that, everything is going swimminigly...
    While submitting late and some of the other stuff is petty bureucratic stuff, I was taken by one of the complaints of the NEC decision on the grounds that he was 'popular candidate among UKIP's members and should be permitted to represent those that wish to vote for him'. Which if that is all you want, why have any technical rules at all, why need nominations, why need closing dates, the only criteria is do people want to vote for them?
    Getting people to vote for them is the main point of political parties. Wolfe may have failed to meet the closing date but UKIP will now be a Carswell and Hamilton led libertarian rump. The UKIP name will still be there but of little relevance to a UK outside the EU. Wolfe and Farage and most of the UKIP members and MEPs will form a new 'Britain First' type party backed by Aaron Banks' cash focusing on opposition to free movement which will be a more relevant issue for a post Brexit Britain
    On 5live at lunchtime they had all of the kipper leadership candidates on bar Jarvis.. Both Philip Broughton and Lisa Duffy could easily appeal in Labour seats. Bill Etheridge perhaps too.
    We will see but it will be Carswell running the show and pushing for less anti immigration rhetoric and a more libertarian and small state philosophy, a platform more Kensington and Chelsea and Virginia Water than Thurrock, Hartlepool and West Bromwich and which will have a ceiling of about 5% of the vote
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    edited August 2016
    Woolfe on Sky News now. Sounds like he thinks dirty tricks were used.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Speaking of dirty tricks. Donald Trumps advisors seem to be being outed in one form or another.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    tlg86 said:

    Woolfe on Sky News now. Sounds like he thinks dirty tricks were used.

    Right. He didn't wait until the last minute to send in his forms - and the technical difficulties he claims were just part of a conspiracy then...

    And he didn't fail to declare his conviction when required - which is going to land him in trouble with the Police and the Bar Council. Even though he has confessed to breaking Electoral Law.

    He has no-one to blame but himself. He knew the deadline and failed to meet it. If he had done that 24 hours earlier, none of this would have happened.

    Trying to paint that as a conspiracy is a pretty big stretch.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    taffys said:

    ''more broadly Britain owned a lot of other places and there were plenty of bureaucratic jobs involved in running things abroad ''

    As a graduate in the early 80s I remember reading job ads for the Hong Kong police...

    I recall seeing judicial jobs in Caribbean islands being advertised in our broadsheets in the 80's and early 90's too.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?
    That would be like forced labour - a workhouse outside so to speak.
    No-one is forced to work, but if they're being given in some cases a couple of thousand pounds a month to be without a job, it's not unreasonable for the state to expect something in return.

    The work rate is more likely to be an issue, probably resolved with piece work pay on the farms somehow made up to minimum wage. The biggest reason to do it though, is to get the lazy buggers off the sofa, even if it means them travelling and staying away during the week. Whatever else has been said about Iain Duncan Smith, his views on welfare were completely right.
    So what happens to the children of those people then. Put into care for the duration?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    I see it looks as though Scotland is to get a different Six O'Clock News (funded by the general license fee, no doubt). I wonder if England will be the new cause celebre over the next few years? I think May has made an assured start to her premiership. The one concern I have is how much she cares about keeping Scotland in the Union. I'm not sure what the English Democrats are up to, but they may have an opportunity to come to prominence over the next year or two.

    Scotland pays vastly more in licence fee than is spent on BBC Scotland production. Plenty of slack for a Scottish Six.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?
    That would be like forced labour - a workhouse outside so to speak.
    No-one is forced to work, but if they're being given in some cases a couple of thousand pounds a month to be without a job, it's not unreasonable for the state to expect something in return.

    The work rate is more likely to be an issue, probably resolved with piece work pay on the farms somehow made up to minimum wage. The biggest reason to do it though, is to get the lazy buggers off the sofa, even if it means them travelling and staying away during the week. Whatever else has been said about Iain Duncan Smith, his views on welfare were completely right.
    So what happens to the children of those people then. Put into care for the duration?
    Just apply it to one adult in households where neither parent work
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    tlg86 said:

    Woolfe on Sky News now. Sounds like he thinks dirty tricks were used.

    Right. He didn't wait until the last minute to send in his forms - and the technical difficulties he claims were just part of a conspiracy then...

    And he didn't fail to declare his conviction when required - which is going to land him in trouble with the Police and the Bar Council. Even though he has confessed to breaking Electoral Law.

    He has no-one to blame but himself. He knew the deadline and failed to meet it. If he had done that 24 hours earlier, none of this would have happened.

    Trying to paint that as a conspiracy is a pretty big stretch.
    UKIP have dodged a bullet methinks.
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    John_M said:

    runnymede said:

    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


    I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

    Britain, in fact, did not exist before 1973
    In fairness, you'd have to be in your fifties to have any real recollection of life pre-EEC. Not really sure what the demographics of PB are in practice.
    Until 1971 we had really nice money. Pounds shillings and pence. You got half a crown pocket money (2s6d) if you were lucky. Normally about 9d though. Great fun and good for mental arithmetic. Ted Heath abolished it so we could join the EEC. Now we have left we should have it back. Could be a good policy for UKIP.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?
    That would be like forced labour - a workhouse outside so to speak.
    No-one is forced to work, but if they're being given in some cases a couple of thousand pounds a month to be without a job, it's not unreasonable for the state to expect something in return.

    The work rate is more likely to be an issue, probably resolved with piece work pay on the farms somehow made up to minimum wage. The biggest reason to do it though, is to get the lazy buggers off the sofa, even if it means them travelling and staying away during the week. Whatever else has been said about Iain Duncan Smith, his views on welfare were completely right.
    A simple system of penalties would be better, i.e. benefits being reduced by 15% for the fortnight if you fail to sign on on time, or don't do enough job searches, etc., and benefits being reduced by 5% a month for each month of unemployment, down to a minimum payment (before sanctions) of 65%. These carrots would be effective and humane without resorting to (a) stopping benefits completely for a period, as currently happens, which is a sad and dangerous state of affairs, or (b) forced labour of any kind, which is a bad idea from every perspective.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    EPG said:

    john_zims said:

    @old_labour

    'Guardian suggesting an outbreak of scurvy because of Brexit. :trollface:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn'


    Guardian clearly unaware of the 1.6 million unemployed or heard of work visas.

    So fruit pickers now count as "skilled immigrants" too.

    Probably Pret staff next when the City lobby gets into swing.

    Hope the white working-class is ready for Project Betrayal.
    Serious question: Why is everyone on the dole under 50 and not sick, not asked to work on the land over the summer? They are providing transport and accommodation on site anyway, so why not do it for the British unemployed, give them some money and some pride?
    That would be like forced labour - a workhouse outside so to speak.
    No-one is forced to work, but if they're being given in some cases a couple of thousand pounds a month to be without a job, it's not unreasonable for the state to expect something in return.

    The work rate is more likely to be an issue, probably resolved with piece work pay on the farms somehow made up to minimum wage. The biggest reason to do it though, is to get the lazy buggers off the sofa, even if it means them travelling and staying away during the week. Whatever else has been said about Iain Duncan Smith, his views on welfare were completely right.
    So what happens to the children of those people then. Put into care for the duration?
    Take them strawberry picking ... it happened 40-50 years ago.

    It's more enjoyable than being a wageslave in a factory, which I briefly did as a summer job when at univ.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    runnymede said:

    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


    I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

    Britain, in fact, did not exist before 1973
    In fairness, you'd have to be in your fifties to have any real recollection of life pre-EEC. Not really sure what the demographics of PB are in practice.
    Until 1971 we had really nice money. Pounds shillings and pence. You got half a crown pocket money (2s6d) if you were lucky. Normally about 9d though. Great fun and good for mental arithmetic. Ted Heath abolished it so we could join the EEC. Now we have left we should have it back. Could be a good policy for UKIP.
    If we change our currency, I'm going to have to insist on doubloons. Possibly mixed in with pieces o'eight.

    On the other hand your suggestion has some merit. Tourists would be utterly bamboozled if we started charging in guineas.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    John_M said:

    runnymede said:

    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


    I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

    Britain, in fact, did not exist before 1973
    In fairness, you'd have to be in your fifties to have any real recollection of life pre-EEC. Not really sure what the demographics of PB are in practice.
    So far as I can tell from those alive at the time, life was pretty good in 1960's Britain, and I think life will be pretty good outside the EU.
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    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    How does Farage feel about Diane James? She would seem to be a strong candidate for leader- indeed I'd never heard of Woolfe before the leadership became vacant and I am also a political geek.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good evening all. I must be prescient and very happy that I left UKIP when I did.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    So we can sum up pb Brexiteers vision of post EU UK as having a currency worth less than the Bangla Deshi Taka and a population back working in the fields like pre Industrial Britain or Bangla Desh today .
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    So we can sum up pb Brexiteers vision of post EU UK as having a currency worth less than the Bangla Deshi Taka and a population back working in the fields like pre Industrial Britain or Bangla Desh today .

    Yes, that's completely accurate Mark. Well done for uncovering our secret vision. Don't forget the workhouses and the public birchings though.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207

    John_M said:

    runnymede said:

    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    'Piece Work minimum wage would be taken into account , it would be much higher if the average rate included super fast immigrants . So you fire them all and the crops rot in the field , that is a very sensible idea .'


    I really don't know how our farms functioned before we joined the EU, on the other hand I can't recall any stories of crops rotting in fields and I grew up in the countryside..

    Britain, in fact, did not exist before 1973
    In fairness, you'd have to be in your fifties to have any real recollection of life pre-EEC. Not really sure what the demographics of PB are in practice.
    Until 1971 we had really nice money. Pounds shillings and pence. You got half a crown pocket money (2s6d) if you were lucky. Normally about 9d though. Great fun and good for mental arithmetic. Ted Heath abolished it so we could join the EEC. Now we have left we should have it back. Could be a good policy for UKIP.
    My dad would support that. He says that the day before the change over a cup of tea at the cafe near where he worked was 3 old pence. The next day it was 3 new pence. Though I guess we'd get some serious inflation if we went back again.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    tlg86 said:

    Woolfe on Sky News now. Sounds like he thinks dirty tricks were used.

    Right. He didn't wait until the last minute to send in his forms - and the technical difficulties he claims were just part of a conspiracy then...

    And he didn't fail to declare his conviction when required - which is going to land him in trouble with the Police and the Bar Council. Even though he has confessed to breaking Electoral Law.

    He has no-one to blame but himself. He knew the deadline and failed to meet it. If he had done that 24 hours earlier, none of this would have happened.

    Trying to paint that as a conspiracy is a pretty big stretch.
    UKIP have dodged a bullet methinks.
    UKIP is now Carswell Inc
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2016

    So we can sum up pb Brexiteers vision of post EU UK as having a currency worth less than the Bangla Deshi Taka and a population back working in the fields like pre Industrial Britain or Bangla Desh today .

    Remainers think that the EU is responsible for everything good in the 1973-2016 period.
    Leavers think that the EU is responsible for everything bad in the 1973-2016 period.

    So what's new ?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Woolfe on Sky News now. Sounds like he thinks dirty tricks were used.

    Right. He didn't wait until the last minute to send in his forms - and the technical difficulties he claims were just part of a conspiracy then...

    And he didn't fail to declare his conviction when required - which is going to land him in trouble with the Police and the Bar Council. Even though he has confessed to breaking Electoral Law.

    He has no-one to blame but himself. He knew the deadline and failed to meet it. If he had done that 24 hours earlier, none of this would have happened.

    Trying to paint that as a conspiracy is a pretty big stretch.
    UKIP have dodged a bullet methinks.
    UKIP is now Carswell Inc
    Farage must be spitting blood. It takes a heart of stone...
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    tlg86 said:

    Woolfe on Sky News now. Sounds like he thinks dirty tricks were used.

    Right. He didn't wait until the last minute to send in his forms - and the technical difficulties he claims were just part of a conspiracy then...

    And he didn't fail to declare his conviction when required - which is going to land him in trouble with the Police and the Bar Council. Even though he has confessed to breaking Electoral Law.

    He has no-one to blame but himself. He knew the deadline and failed to meet it. If he had done that 24 hours earlier, none of this would have happened.

    Trying to paint that as a conspiracy is a pretty big stretch.
    To be fair to Woolfe, most conspiracy theories fall down because the theorist believes the world is run by malignant nutters who are out to get him, and that belief is obviously delusional. That doesn't apply in this case, because he was dealing with the NEC of ukip who everyone agrees are in fact malignant nutters who are out to get Woolfe. If you think about it, technology doesn't actually glitch that much these days. I am quite prepared to believe he is only partly to blame for his own misfortune over the "late" submission.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    So we can sum up pb Brexiteers vision of post EU UK as having a currency worth less than the Bangla Deshi Taka and a population back working in the fields like pre Industrial Britain or Bangla Desh today .

    Still, at least we know how to spell Bangladesh.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Woolfe on Sky News now. Sounds like he thinks dirty tricks were used.

    Right. He didn't wait until the last minute to send in his forms - and the technical difficulties he claims were just part of a conspiracy then...

    And he didn't fail to declare his conviction when required - which is going to land him in trouble with the Police and the Bar Council. Even though he has confessed to breaking Electoral Law.

    He has no-one to blame but himself. He knew the deadline and failed to meet it. If he had done that 24 hours earlier, none of this would have happened.

    Trying to paint that as a conspiracy is a pretty big stretch.
    UKIP have dodged a bullet methinks.
    UKIP is now Carswell Inc
    Farage must be spitting blood. It takes a heart of stone...
    I doubt it. History will show Farage to be the greatest politician of his generation. Okay, not saying much given the competition, but he won.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Woolfe on Sky News now. Sounds like he thinks dirty tricks were used.

    Right. He didn't wait until the last minute to send in his forms - and the technical difficulties he claims were just part of a conspiracy then...

    And he didn't fail to declare his conviction when required - which is going to land him in trouble with the Police and the Bar Council. Even though he has confessed to breaking Electoral Law.

    He has no-one to blame but himself. He knew the deadline and failed to meet it. If he had done that 24 hours earlier, none of this would have happened.

    Trying to paint that as a conspiracy is a pretty big stretch.
    UKIP have dodged a bullet methinks.
    UKIP is now Carswell Inc
    Farage must be spitting blood. It takes a heart of stone...
    I doubt it. History will show Farage to be the greatest politician of his generation. Okay, not saying much given the competition, but he won.
    All political careers end in failure, and we do not yet know whether Brexit will be seen as Britains biggest mistake of recent times.

    New thread btw.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I've got good news and bad news for the Trump campaign by looking at all the post convention polls (including state polls and sub-samples).

    The Good news is that he hasn't lost support outside the western USA, he is still retaining 80%+ of Romney's 2012 vote plus a sizable number of Obama 2012 switchers ~10%.
    The bulk of Hillary's bounce seems to have come from California and the N.E.

    The Bad news is that Trump retains only 2/3rds of Romney's 2012 vote in the west, and Hillary is not losing much of Obama's (80%+) outside the Mid-West (~70%).

    Trump remains competitive east of the Mississippi river, but he's in real trouble west of that river.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited August 2016

    So we can sum up pb Brexiteers vision of post EU UK as having a currency worth less than the Bangla Deshi Taka and a population back working in the fields like pre Industrial Britain or Bangla Desh today .

    Still, at least we know how to spell Bangladesh.
    Dug up some old numbers from the MAC. The SAWS ran from the 1950s to 2013. There were a total of 67k seasonal workers. After 2008 it was only used to cover Romanian and Bulgarian workers.

    The last report was worried that the supply of A8/A2 and Portugese workers would dry up due to improved living standards in those countries. It proposed a non-EU SAWS. Apparently we also had a separate scheme for mushroom growers. Mind blown.

    Anyway, enough about the joys of agricultural labour provision. Toodle pip.
This discussion has been closed.