politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s first PMQs: She’s going be a challenge for either Cor
Comments
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Mr. Llama, cheers.0
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Didn't you vote for them in 2015, Sunil :@) ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
A year later the REAL Nasty Party bombed and invaded Iraq.....The_Apocalypse said:While the nasty party as a term was coined in 2002, the image of the Tories as nasty was in existience before that. 2002 was just the first time it was really acknowledged.
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Traditional lazy thinking from some on here to assume the LDs are Europhile. I'm a Lib Dem and I voted LEAVE - the constant mantra of "the EU can be reformed" just doesn't wash any more.IanB2 said:<
I would say that is most unlikely, given his background.
There will always be a constituency that would support closer ties with Europe. Even if Brexit goes very well, that constituency will be there, although in such cicurmstances not really a vote winner.
If Brexit goes very badly, all bets are off...
Farron's policy of wanting a second referendum to join the EU is fair enough but we cannot simply rejoin on the terms we rejected in June. IF we choose to rejoin it will be on the EU's terms which may or may not include the Euro but will certainly exclude a lot of the opt-outs won by Thatcher, Blair, Brown and Cameron over social and industrial policy.
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Leave voters would be mad to join Labour & vote Smith, and take the risk of Smith making it into No. 10 & stopping Brexit.nunu said:
He's saying a second vote on the deal, but I think he is being clever trying to get the £3 quidders, u don't have to vote for him at next GE.John_M said:
Owen Smith wants a second referendum. Comrade Corbyn for me. But I won't vote. It's not my fight.nunu said:*Calling everyone who loves their country*
We need a strong opposition in this country and yes Smith leaves a lot to be desired but Corbyn is a disaster, and Smith will step down if there is someone better.
Please, please please everyone if u love ur country register to save her Majesty's Loyal opposition.
Tories, I know u love ur country more than party, do ur duty hold ur nose and if u can register as a Labour supporter and vote for Owen Smith.0 -
Jeremy Corbyn believes he could win the Labour leadership contest by a landslide, his aides have suggested as allies were accused of a dirty tricks campaign to undermine his rival Owen Smith.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/20/jeremy-corbyn-believes-he-could-win-landslide-victory-in-labour/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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What are the 'dirty tricks' exactly ?TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn believes he could win the Labour leadership contest by a landslide, his aides have suggested as allies were accused of a dirty tricks campaign to undermine his rival Owen Smith.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/20/jeremy-corbyn-believes-he-could-win-landslide-victory-in-labour/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
@NCPoliticsUK: Enough deluded comparisons w/ past election results. LAB polling under past leaders, GE+14 months:
Foot 46
Kinnock 39
Smith 44
Miliband 420 -
Bob__Sykes said:
Nah, I paid my £3 a year ago for a bit of fun, I'm not paying £25 for another go. :-)PlatoSaid said:
How many £3ers have become £25ers is key. If your vote in 2015 won it for Comrade Corbyn, I'd imagine you'd fork out £25 to keep him there.Bob__Sykes said:
I feel quite sorry for the Labour Party, being taken over by a bunch of whackjob lefties. One can't help feeling the coup attempt has flooded the party with new and more hardcore/radical members, it will make Corbyn even more entrenched, the Labour Party even more left wing, and even further removed from power.kle4 said:
It's either a moment of surprise revolution, or incredible blindness - Labour membership has never been more popular in modern times, and either they really are more reflective of the wider public than we think, or might prove appealing to it more than we think, or it is a party making itself unelectable in a really extreme way by total choice.PlatoSaid said:
Holy Hell.Tissue_Price said:@STJamesl
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
That's stunning if true.
[chuckles]
(I guess you weren't addressing that to me though!)
Surely £25 worth of fun is better than £3 worth of fun.0 -
EEK Said:
"What's the background to your single word response?
Catholics in NI are far more conservative than their Southern counterparts they haven't had 20 years of stories about previous Catholic church abuses... That's utterly destroyed the reputation of the church south of the border and many people have become more liberal as they see how the church worked the abuse it happily perpetuated"
After partition the Catholic Church in RoI became basically the establishment and priests aristocracy. They took the rap for a lot of things like abuse in Childrens homes because they ran them (in the UK local councils did), also as they were treated like aristocracy they were largely unnaccountable and this allowed deviants to go unchecked.
An (English) priest I know related how his Irish uncle's reaction to him deciding to become a priest was one of disgust. This was long before the abuse etc. came out, his reaction was because even then in the 70s the clergy in RoI were seen in many quarters as a cosy, wealthy easy number for those too idle to work for a living. It was said the best Irish priests went to England where being a priest meant lots of hard work and no money.
Obviously in NI the priviliges that the RoI church had did not exist and therefore far less of the corruption and far more work, meaning that the Church is far healthier.
I realised this when we had to arrange burial in a predominately protestant town of the ashes of a close relative who had died abroad.
The local catholic parish priest was contacted to do the burial and offered to say a requiem Mass. It was on a weekday and about 100 turned up. Apologies were given that there were not many massgoers that day as the rest had gone on a pilgrimage down south!
In contrast in the RoI, I am told, churches are empty.0 -
Fm the article, it would appear the dirty tricks were the lobby quoting his words back to him.Pulpstar said:
What are the 'dirty tricks' exactly ?TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn believes he could win the Labour leadership contest by a landslide, his aides have suggested as allies were accused of a dirty tricks campaign to undermine his rival Owen Smith.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/20/jeremy-corbyn-believes-he-could-win-landslide-victory-in-labour/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
I'm offendedstodge said:
Traditional lazy thinking from some on here to assume the LDs are Europhile. I'm a Lib Dem and I voted LEAVE - the constant mantra of "the EU can be reformed" just doesn't wash any more.IanB2 said:<
I would say that is most unlikely, given his background.
There will always be a constituency that would support closer ties with Europe. Even if Brexit goes very well, that constituency will be there, although in such cicurmstances not really a vote winner.
If Brexit goes very badly, all bets are off...
Farron's policy of wanting a second referendum to join the EU is fair enough but we cannot simply rejoin on the terms we rejected in June. IF we choose to rejoin it will be on the EU's terms which may or may not include the Euro but will certainly exclude a lot of the opt-outs won by Thatcher, Blair, Brown and Cameron over social and industrial policy.
. I have never heard anything but adulation from any Lib Dem spokesman. There's occasionally been a soundbite about 'a reformed EU', but I don't think it's just laziness that's lead me to believe that the Lib Dems are crazed on the topic. That Farron is even contemplating (as you say, sans opt outs) leading us back in says it all.
Tempering it to as much cooperation as possible (e.g. Horizon, Erasmus, ITER, ESA, CERN etc) is fine.0 -
Every YouGov this year, according to UKPR:brokenwheel said:
Changes from a duff poll are duff by definition. The UKIP figure in this new poll is consistent with the actual election results in May.TheWhiteRabbit said:
A considerable reduction in the UKIP vote is the most interesting part.ThreeQuidder said:
A definite outlier.Sean_F said:
The last one looked like an outlier. But, there's nothing surprising about this. People on the Right who were pissed off with David Cameron's fake renegotiation have switched back to the Tories.nunu said:
When were the tories at 30% with yougov?TheScreamingEagles said:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
YouGov/Times 2016-04-26 30 33 6 20 3 -3
2016-07-18 40 29 9 12 3 11
2016-04-26 30 33 6 20 3 -3
2016-04-12 31 34 8 17 3 -3
2016-03-17 33 34 6 16 3 -1
2016-02-23 37 30 8 16 3 7
2016-02-04 39 29 6 18 3 10
2016-01-28 39 30 6 17 3 9
So... yeah.0 -
Yep, the late running 16:59 from Woking to Waterloo was the service. We were 17 minutes late at Surbiton and the driver announced over the intercom to the guard "we are going via east Putney". We veered off just after Wimbledon and took the scenic route.Sunil_Prasannan said:<
Did you do it in daylight? I thought that train only ran around midnight. I have yet to do it!
There are a few services which use the route - the 05:28 from Woking is timed to take 32 minutes to get to Clapham Junction because it goes that way round - normal route time for a fast service would be 20 minutes. The 01:05 from London Waterloo to Southampton Central goes to Paltform 6 at Clapham then goes down the East Putney route to Wimbledon.
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Maybe the Lib Dems should have picked up Boris's original position when he joined the Leave camp: Use the referendum result as leverage to carry out a true renegotiation taking account of the British people's concerns.stodge said:
Traditional lazy thinking from some on here to assume the LDs are Europhile. I'm a Lib Dem and I voted LEAVE - the constant mantra of "the EU can be reformed" just doesn't wash any more.IanB2 said:<
I would say that is most unlikely, given his background.
There will always be a constituency that would support closer ties with Europe. Even if Brexit goes very well, that constituency will be there, although in such cicurmstances not really a vote winner.
If Brexit goes very badly, all bets are off...
Farron's policy of wanting a second referendum to join the EU is fair enough but we cannot simply rejoin on the terms we rejected in June. IF we choose to rejoin it will be on the EU's terms which may or may not include the Euro but will certainly exclude a lot of the opt-outs won by Thatcher, Blair, Brown and Cameron over social and industrial policy.0 -
When I sleep I miss all the fun. A romp at PMQs, and Scottish Tory Surge in progress. Woe is me
OMG and a +10 on YouGov.0 -
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Plenty of money available to LAY Woolfe for UKIP leader at 1.18 for those in a position and wanting to bank a profit. I got on at 6.0 thanks to Tissue Price's direction and Scott P, I think.
I've banked the money! Hat tip and thanks to both PBers.0 -
That's an abuse of the meme.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
http://bit.ly/1ikOQ3eTheWhiteRabbit said:
That's an abuse of the meme.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
stjohn triumphs again - despite his prompting, I missed out on this one unfortunately .... sob.stjohn said:Plenty of money available to LAY Woolfe for UKIP leader at 1.18 for those in a position and wanting to bank a profit. I got on at 6.0 thanks to Tissue Price's direction and Scott P, I think.
I've banked the money! Hat tip and thanks to both PBers.
It would seem that the UKIP members voted Woolfe too often.
I'll get me coat!0 -
These may be famous last words but I think he is the winner.stjohn said:Plenty of money available to LAY Woolfe for UKIP leader at 1.18 for those in a position and wanting to bank a profit. I got on at 6.0 thanks to Tissue Price's direction and Scott P, I think.
I've banked the money! Hat tip and thanks to both PBers.
I'm in for tiddly sums anyway
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Cheers Peter. I've been managing to wrest neutrality from the jaws of victory a bit too often recently so it's nice to bank another winner!peter_from_putney said:
stjohn triumphs again - despite his prompting, I missed out on this one unfortunately .... sob.stjohn said:Plenty of money available to LAY Woolfe for UKIP leader at 1.18 for those in a position and wanting to bank a profit. I got on at 6.0 thanks to Tissue Price's direction and Scott P, I think.
I've banked the money! Hat tip and thanks to both PBers.
Backing at 6.0 and then laying at 1.18 is equivalent to backing at 6.0/1.18 = 5.08 - for a guaranteed winner. There's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip as they say in Dudley.0 -
The other side is now more aware of this route in, so there will be a few like me who did not take part last time that will this time and will not be voting for the Great Leader. However, the chances are that he will win very easily indeed.PlatoSaid said:
How many £3ers have become £25ers is key. If your vote in 2015 won it for Comrade Corbyn, I'd imagine you'd fork out £25 to keep him there.Bob__Sykes said:
I feel quite sorry for the Labour Party, being taken over by a bunch of whackjob lefties. One can't help feeling the coup attempt has flooded the party with new and more hardcore/radical members, it will make Corbyn even more entrenched, the Labour Party even more left wing, and even further removed from power.kle4 said:
It's either a moment of surprise revolution, or incredible blindness - Labour membership has never been more popular in modern times, and either they really are more reflective of the wider public than we think, or might prove appealing to it more than we think, or it is a party making itself unelectable in a really extreme way by total choice.PlatoSaid said:
Holy Hell.Tissue_Price said:@STJamesl
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
That's stunning if true.
[chuckles]
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Don't be stupid , how can you get Brown being a twonk to only SNP are Scottish, talk about fantasy.nunu said:
ah I see only SNP are true Scots?malcolmg said:
He is a halfwit and called himself North British, he is no real Scotsman.JonnyJimmy said:
I don't think Malc considers Brown to be a true ScotsmanThreeQuidder said:
Because of Gordon Brown.malcolmg said:If you are talking about borrowing , why is England borrowing £100B a year you halfwit.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.0 -
X
The comparison is with the last yougov isn't it? There haven't been results since have there?brokenwheel said:
You miss my point, and that being made by others, that the comparison used to create the figures was itself awfully out of line with both results and other polling at the time. It appears to have been wilfully chosen to create a narrative.MontyHall said:
It would be quite incredible if UKIP VI didn't drop after the vote to Leave the EU, the resignation of Farage and the destruction of the Cameroons. Their goal has been achieved, I would think they have a lot less to be fired up aboutbrokenwheel said:
Especially with Yougov, changes sound nonsense.Artist said:I don't remember UKIP being at 20% to be honest.
It seems Yougovs previous polls were wildly out of kilter with other firms re Con share, have they changed something?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
How much is real drop and how much is Yougov's bad methodology?0 -
Another halfwit , I have nothing to do with or have ever been associated with the SNP.runnymede said:
That's right, 'proper Scots' must be SNP, as our SNP posters have consistently told us.nunu said:
ah I see only SNP are true Scots?malcolmg said:
He is a halfwit and called himself North British, he is no real Scotsman.JonnyJimmy said:
I don't think Malc considers Brown to be a true ScotsmanThreeQuidder said:
Because of Gordon Brown.malcolmg said:If you are talking about borrowing , why is England borrowing £100B a year you halfwit.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.0 -
Wouldn't we all?kle4 said:
I get the feeling Ms Chakrabarti would, whatever problems with the current system, prefer an appointment to the grind of becoming an MP.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: WATCH: Shami Chakrabarti hints she has been offered a Labour peerage
https://t.co/Xmg5scOStI https://t.co/UASEfYmdty0 -
That's funny, they say that in Putney too, or at least I do.stjohn said:
Cheers Peter. I've been managing to wrest neutrality from the jaws of victory a bit too often recently so it's nice to bank another winner!peter_from_putney said:
stjohn triumphs again - despite his prompting, I missed out on this one unfortunately .... sob.stjohn said:Plenty of money available to LAY Woolfe for UKIP leader at 1.18 for those in a position and wanting to bank a profit. I got on at 6.0 thanks to Tissue Price's direction and Scott P, I think.
I've banked the money! Hat tip and thanks to both PBers.
Backing at 6.0 and then laying at 1.18 is equivalent to backing at 6.0/1.18 = 5.08 - for a guaranteed winner. There's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip as they say in Dudley.
Mustn't grumble though, having picked up around £120 today following Trump's GOP nomination. Possibly the easiest bet of the year so far, although a long period in the winning.0 -
If the donkey gave me £25 I would not vote for himThreeQuidder said:
Me too. Smith isn't worth paying £25 to vote for.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Unfortunately, I've decided to sit this one out (I was a 2015 £3-er).PlatoSaid said:
Holy Hell.Tissue_Price said:@STJamesl
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
That's stunning if true.0 -
The last Yougov was a lifetime away in political terms, alot has happened since April so large swings are not entirely unpredictable.0
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Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.0 -
Gosh. East Putney was my nearest tube station when I was growing up and very, very occasionally, maybe once every year or two, we would see a freight train on the mainline. I am surprised it is still in use let alone for passenger traffic. Perhaps they could re-open for a stopping service and take some of the pressure off of the District Line and the Putney proper to Waterloo route.stodge said:
Yep, the late running 16:59 from Woking to Waterloo was the service. We were 17 minutes late at Surbiton and the driver announced over the intercom to the guard "we are going via east Putney". We veered off just after Wimbledon and took the scenic route.Sunil_Prasannan said:<
Did you do it in daylight? I thought that train only ran around midnight. I have yet to do it!
There are a few services which use the route - the 05:28 from Woking is timed to take 32 minutes to get to Clapham Junction because it goes that way round - normal route time for a fast service would be 20 minutes. The 01:05 from London Waterloo to Southampton Central goes to Paltform 6 at Clapham then goes down the East Putney route to Wimbledon.
If you are coming from the Wandsworth end it used to be a real fag to get to the City and that was fifty years ago. I dread to think what it is like now. East Putney to Waterloo and then the Drain to Bank would be a big improvement.0 -
Emphasis added...malcolmg said:
Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.0 -
May is going all One Nation precisely because there's a gaping hole in the centre just waiting to be filled - as well as UKIP suffering something of an identity crisis, albeit one borne of success, so being less able to challenge on the right.John_M said:
It's a repeated mistake by both parties that losing elections means that you just weren't [pick your poison] wing enough. It's Labour's turn now, made more difficult by May going One Nation Tory all over its ass.The_Apocalypse said:
I haven't forgotten that. However that was under Major, who is on left of the Conservative party. Much of the Tory leaders after him were much more Thatcherite - Hague, IDS etc - which voters didn't like.HurstLlama said:
Miss Apocalypse also seems to forget that after Thatcher the Conservatives won a general election with the highest number of votes ever cast for one party.Casino_Royale said:
Yes.The_Apocalypse said:@Casino_Royale Where you honestly stimulated by PMQs? Really?
Also, I agree with @valleyboy re the Thatcher comparisons. It's partly that time period and the fall out from it that meant the Tories were seen as the nasty party and had to modernise in the first place.
You lefties really don't know what Maggie does to us Tory Boys.
Youngsters believing the myths they have been taught rather than learning the history.
Don't despair, there will be plenty of right wingers who think May's speech makes her a TINO.0 -
Corbyn won't take any lesson from losers and is building his own path.Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Enough deluded comparisons w/ past election results. LAB polling under past leaders, GE+14 months:
Foot 46
Kinnock 39
Smith 44
Miliband 42
(unfair to Smith, I know, who probably would have won in 1997 but still - none of those four *did* win a GE)0 -
HurstLlama said:
Gosh. East Putney was my nearest tube station when I was growing up and very, very occasionally, maybe once every year or two, we would see a freight train on the mainline. I am surprised it is still in use let alone for passenger traffic. Perhaps they could re-open for a stopping service and take some of the pressure off of the District Line and the Putney proper to Waterloo route.stodge said:
Yep, the late running 16:59 from Woking to Waterloo was the service. We were 17 minutes late at Surbiton and the driver announced over the intercom to the guard "we are going via east Putney". We veered off just after Wimbledon and took the scenic route.Sunil_Prasannan said:<
Did you do it in daylight? I thought that train only ran around midnight. I have yet to do it!
There are a few services which use the route - the 05:28 from Woking is timed to take 32 minutes to get to Clapham Junction because it goes that way round - normal route time for a fast service would be 20 minutes. The 01:05 from London Waterloo to Southampton Central goes to Paltform 6 at Clapham then goes down the East Putney route to Wimbledon.
If you are coming from the Wandsworth end it used to be a real fag to get to the city and that was fifty years ago. I dread to think what it is like now. East Putney to Waterloo and then the Drain to Bank would be a big improvement.
HL - For me it's main line from Barnes to Waterloo and from there the Drain to Bank. Fifty minutes door to door, so not too bad.0 -
France in August is going to be even more fun than normal. Valls rams his labour reforms through.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-politics-protests-idUSKCN1001YM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)0 -
The idea of joining the EU after we leave is DOA. It's just a policy for the LDs to snap up angry remainers SNP style. The country will grow to accept Brexit. I'm a genuine europhile and even I have accepted we are leaving and shouldn't overturn the result. Any negative economic consequences such as actual recessions will be too in the near future for us to contemplate the idea, and 20 years down the line, the economic cost is in lost opportunity - harder to quantify and therefore harder to convince people we made the wrong choice.John_M said:
I'm offendedstodge said:
Traditional lazy thinking from some on here to assume the LDs are Europhile. I'm a Lib Dem and I voted LEAVE - the constant mantra of "the EU can be reformed" just doesn't wash any more.IanB2 said:<
I would say that is most unlikely, given his background.
There will always be a constituency that would support closer ties with Europe. Even if Brexit goes very well, that constituency will be there, although in such cicurmstances not really a vote winner.
If Brexit goes very badly, all bets are off...
Farron's policy of wanting a second referendum to join the EU is fair enough but we cannot simply rejoin on the terms we rejected in June. IF we choose to rejoin it will be on the EU's terms which may or may not include the Euro but will certainly exclude a lot of the opt-outs won by Thatcher, Blair, Brown and Cameron over social and industrial policy.. I have never heard anything but adulation from any Lib Dem spokesman. There's occasionally been a soundbite about 'a reformed EU', but I don't think it's just laziness that's lead me to believe that the Lib Dems are crazed on the topic. That Farron is even contemplating (as you say, sans opt outs) leading us back in says it all.
Tempering it to as much cooperation as possible (e.g. Horizon, Erasmus, ITER, ESA, CERN etc) is fine.
Fundamentally though, once we leave the EU will never accept us back. Just like we will survive post-brexit, so will the EU, they won't desperately need us as a member, and they wouldn't trust us enough - much as de Gaulle didn't in the 60s.
To stick with the often used divorce analogy, it would be like two exes getting back together post divorce and living happily ever after - only ever happens in the movies.
In reality, the fundamental problems with the relationship are still there and those couples that do try it nearly always split up again! I don't think we want an "on again-off again" relationship with the EU!0 -
US Pres:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-is-as-safe-as-kerrys-was-in-2004
URL says it all.0 -
Terrible use of the meme.TheScreamingEagles said:
If something is already unelectable, then you can't make it unelectable by civil war since it's already there. So there is no facepalm involved ...0 -
Jonathan Walker Verified account @jonwalker121 40m40 minutes ago
UKIP leader candidate Bill Etheridge sets out plans: Cheaper beer, vote on the death penalty & maybe smoking in pubs0 -
Out of interest, did you vote SNP at the last elections, or a different pro-indy party (GE and Holyrood)?malcolmg said:
Another halfwit , I have nothing to do with or have ever been associated with the SNP.runnymede said:
That's right, 'proper Scots' must be SNP, as our SNP posters have consistently told us.nunu said:
ah I see only SNP are true Scots?malcolmg said:
He is a halfwit and called himself North British, he is no real Scotsman.JonnyJimmy said:
I don't think Malc considers Brown to be a true ScotsmanThreeQuidder said:
Because of Gordon Brown.malcolmg said:If you are talking about borrowing , why is England borrowing £100B a year you halfwit.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.0 -
I was born and grew up on the estate behind the West Hill fire station. So when I first left school it was a ten fifteen minute walk to East Putney then a packed-solid district line train round to Monument and then that ghastly escalator connection to Bank. Then a stroll to the actual office. It was intolerable then I really dread to think what it is like now.peter_from_putney said:HurstLlama said:
Gosh. East Putney was my nearest tube station when I was growing up and very, very occasionally, maybe once every year or two, we would see a freight train on the mainline. I am surprised it is still in use let alone for passenger traffic. Perhaps they could re-open for a stopping service and take some of the pressure off of the District Line and the Putney proper to Waterloo route.stodge said:
Yep, the late running 16:59 from Woking to Waterloo was the service. We were 17 minutes late at Surbiton and the driver announced over the intercom to the guard "we are going via east Putney". We veered off just after Wimbledon and took the scenic route.Sunil_Prasannan said:<
Did you do it in daylight? I thought that train only ran around midnight. I have yet to do it!
There are a few services which use the route - the 05:28 from Woking is timed to take 32 minutes to get to Clapham Junction because it goes that way round - normal route time for a fast service would be 20 minutes. The 01:05 from London Waterloo to Southampton Central goes to Paltform 6 at Clapham then goes down the East Putney route to Wimbledon.
If you are coming from the Wandsworth end it used to be a real fag to get to the city and that was fifty years ago. I dread to think what it is like now. East Putney to Waterloo and then the Drain to Bank would be a big improvement.
HL - For me it's main line from Barnes to Waterloo and from there the Drain to Bank. Fifty minutes door to door, so not too bad.0 -
£260 for me from an all green bookpeter_from_putney said:
That's funny, they say that in Putney too, or at least I do.stjohn said:
Cheers Peter. I've been managing to wrest neutrality from the jaws of victory a bit too often recently so it's nice to bank another winner!peter_from_putney said:
stjohn triumphs again - despite his prompting, I missed out on this one unfortunately .... sob.stjohn said:Plenty of money available to LAY Woolfe for UKIP leader at 1.18 for those in a position and wanting to bank a profit. I got on at 6.0 thanks to Tissue Price's direction and Scott P, I think.
I've banked the money! Hat tip and thanks to both PBers.
Backing at 6.0 and then laying at 1.18 is equivalent to backing at 6.0/1.18 = 5.08 - for a guaranteed winner. There's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip as they say in Dudley.
Mustn't grumble though, having picked up around £120 today following Trump's GOP nomination. Possibly the easiest bet of the year so far, although a long period in the winning.
Pulpstar had a book I was extremely jealous of though0 -
Hawks, doves, idiots and ignoramuses in that order. I have no idea how the 10% manage to tie their shoelaces. Presumably they're dressed by their Mums.SeanT said:If I'm not mistaken, the British public has become MORE hawkish about the nuclear deterrent, over time, not less. Which makes sense, in these perilous days
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7557795019304058930 -
Um, that was for local reasons - I thoroughly enjoyed Election Night, I stayed up until 8 amPulpstar said:
Didn't you vote for them in 2015, Sunil :@) ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
A year later the REAL Nasty Party bombed and invaded Iraq.....The_Apocalypse said:While the nasty party as a term was coined in 2002, the image of the Tories as nasty was in existience before that. 2002 was just the first time it was really acknowledged.
0 -
No offence intended, my friend. I wouldn't say it's been adulation but more a "hope" that "somehow" the EU will be able to reform itself to something more to the UK's liking. If it takes the threat of our departure or indeed our actual departure to bring about that change, I'll appreciate the irony.John_M said:I'm offended
. I have never heard anything but adulation from any Lib Dem spokesman. There's occasionally been a soundbite about 'a reformed EU', but I don't think it's just laziness that's lead me to believe that the Lib Dems are crazed on the topic. That Farron is even contemplating (as you say, sans opt outs) leading us back in says it all.
Tempering it to as much cooperation as possible (e.g. Horizon, Erasmus, ITER, ESA, CERN etc) is fine.
Farron's position needs defining - on June 23rd, we didn't just reject Cameron's renegotiated terms, we voted to Leave the EU. Now, saying we should rejoin the EU is a valid position - no problem there - but there seems an implicit assumption from Farron we can simply walk back in as though nothing had happened.
We shouldn't and can't - can we negotiate terms for our re-entry from the EU ? In theory, no but in practice, yes. It seems unrealistic to assume all the opt-outs will be handed back without a word and the elephant in the room, the Euro, will still be there. If the price of Britain returning to the EU is the Euro, no one here will pay it.
As I see it, we can't return to the EU without making commitments on the Single Market and control of our borders that a majority specifically rejected on June 23rd. If we are offered membership of the EU without being a net contributor, with control of our borders and without having to sign up to the full panoply of the Single Market, fantastic. I just can't see that ever being on the table.
0 -
I made a decent return on the late nights, the spreadsheets, the reading analysis...!Casino_Royale said:
£260 for me from an all green bookpeter_from_putney said:
That's funny, they say that in Putney too, or at least I do.stjohn said:
Cheers Peter. I've been managing to wrest neutrality from the jaws of victory a bit too often recently so it's nice to bank another winner!peter_from_putney said:
stjohn triumphs again - despite his prompting, I missed out on this one unfortunately .... sob.stjohn said:Plenty of money available to LAY Woolfe for UKIP leader at 1.18 for those in a position and wanting to bank a profit. I got on at 6.0 thanks to Tissue Price's direction and Scott P, I think.
I've banked the money! Hat tip and thanks to both PBers.
Backing at 6.0 and then laying at 1.18 is equivalent to backing at 6.0/1.18 = 5.08 - for a guaranteed winner. There's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip as they say in Dudley.
Mustn't grumble though, having picked up around £120 today following Trump's GOP nomination. Possibly the easiest bet of the year so far, although a long period in the winning.
Pulpstar had a book I was extremely jealous of though0 -
Due to my ubergeekery, I like to do these obscure lines in daylight where available. A year ago today I did Corby to Oakham in both directions (1636 Derby to Kettering, then 1900 Kettering to Melton Mowbray).stodge said:
Yep, the late running 16:59 from Woking to Waterloo was the service. We were 17 minutes late at Surbiton and the driver announced over the intercom to the guard "we are going via east Putney". We veered off just after Wimbledon and took the scenic route.Sunil_Prasannan said:<
Did you do it in daylight? I thought that train only ran around midnight. I have yet to do it!
There are a few services which use the route - the 05:28 from Woking is timed to take 32 minutes to get to Clapham Junction because it goes that way round - normal route time for a fast service would be 20 minutes. The 01:05 from London Waterloo to Southampton Central goes to Paltform 6 at Clapham then goes down the East Putney route to Wimbledon.
I take it you are familiar with this website?
http://www.psul4all.free-online.co.uk/2016.htm0 -
I don't think SSBNs have any rule other than patrol and firing their missiles! Otherwise we wouldn't have an additional class of hunter-killer subs.John_M said:
Hawks, doves, idiots and ignoramuses in that order. I have no idea how the 10% manage to tie their shoelaces. Presumably they're dressed by their Mums.SeanT said:If I'm not mistaken, the British public has become MORE hawkish about the nuclear deterrent, over time, not less. Which makes sense, in these perilous days
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7557795019304058930 -
I don't think Jeremy Corbyn's mum is still alive is she?John_M said:
Hawks, doves, idiots and ignoramuses in that order. I have no idea how the 10% manage to tie their shoelaces. Presumably they're dressed by their Mums.SeanT said:If I'm not mistaken, the British public has become MORE hawkish about the nuclear deterrent, over time, not less. Which makes sense, in these perilous days
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7557795019304058930 -
I feel they might actually go through with them this time, Merkel wants it.John_M said:France in August is going to be even more fun than normal. Valls rams his labour reforms through.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-politics-protests-idUSKCN1001YM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)0 -
Corbyn is dressed by Cameron's Mum!Patrick said:
I don't think Jeremy Corbyn's mum is still alive is she?John_M said:
Hawks, doves, idiots and ignoramuses in that order. I have no idea how the 10% manage to tie their shoelaces. Presumably they're dressed by their Mums.SeanT said:If I'm not mistaken, the British public has become MORE hawkish about the nuclear deterrent, over time, not less. Which makes sense, in these perilous days
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7557795019304058930 -
The right thing done far too late. The only beneficiary will be Alain Juppe, who will credit for Valls reforms.John_M said:France in August is going to be even more fun than normal. Valls rams his labour reforms through.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-politics-protests-idUSKCN1001YM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
(Like Merkel got credit for Schroder's labour reforms.)0 -
The train didn't stop at East Putney - it sort of went past it to the east. Apparently, there are the remnants of a platform there which was once used by trains but the line is now single track from East Putney east to where it rejoins the main line at Wandsworth Town.HurstLlama said:
Gosh. East Putney was my nearest tube station when I was growing up and very, very occasionally, maybe once every year or two, we would see a freight train on the mainline. I am surprised it is still in use let alone for passenger traffic. Perhaps they could re-open for a stopping service and take some of the pressure off of the District Line and the Putney proper to Waterloo route.
If you are coming from the Wandsworth end it used to be a real fag to get to the City and that was fifty years ago. I dread to think what it is like now. East Putney to Waterloo and then the Drain to Bank would be a big improvement.
I do wonder whether once the old Eurostar platforms at Waterloo are brought back into service whether somebody might look at re-introducing a few trains on that route from Wimbledon via East Putney as it would relieve pressure on other lines. There couldn't be many given the tube service in existence.
0 -
We need Trident Subs to counter the increasing threat of the EU-Boat wolf-packs!RobD said:
I don't think SSBNs have any rule other than patrol and firing their missiles! Otherwise we wouldn't have an additional class of hunter-killer subs.John_M said:
Hawks, doves, idiots and ignoramuses in that order. I have no idea how the 10% manage to tie their shoelaces. Presumably they're dressed by their Mums.SeanT said:If I'm not mistaken, the British public has become MORE hawkish about the nuclear deterrent, over time, not less. Which makes sense, in these perilous days
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7557795019304058930 -
Gary Johnson: must be value as a trading bet at 270, if he ends up in the debates - on for a fiver of the £200 that Betfair kindly deposited in my account this morning. He has no chance of course, but those who understand the electoral college are not necessarily the same people who bet on the outcome of the election.0
-
Emphasis is they cannot win seats they have to be given them as consolation prizes for being duff and hated..ThreeQuidder said:
Emphasis added...malcolmg said:
Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.0 -
Yep. In fairness, Hollande deserves everything that's coming his way. I can't remember a worse presidency. Which is saying a lot, all things considered.rcs1000 said:
The right thing done far too late. The only beneficiary will be Alain Juppe, who will credit for Valls reforms.John_M said:France in August is going to be even more fun than normal. Valls rams his labour reforms through.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-politics-protests-idUSKCN1001YM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
(Like Merkel got credit for Schroder's labour reforms.)0 -
It's never too late and France is hardly an economic basket case.rcs1000 said:
The right thing done far too late. The only beneficiary will be Alain Juppe, who will credit for Valls reforms.John_M said:France in August is going to be even more fun than normal. Valls rams his labour reforms through.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-politics-protests-idUSKCN1001YM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
(Like Merkel got credit for Schroder's labour reforms.)0 -
Sunil, you're a train geek (this is a compliment). Why are trains in 2016 affected by rain, snow, lightning and hot weather. I've spent a lot of hours delayed at Waterloo just recently and was wondering if the UK is uniquely plagued by unreliable trains or if the worldwide technology is better than ours. How hard can it be to design a rain, snow and heat indifferent/tolerant train?0
-
Twitter feeds mentioning 150k registered supporters for the Labour election. If accurate - and they're not unknowns reporting it - that has to be very good news for Corbyn.0
-
I do vote SNP as they are the only option that will ever have a chance of making independence a reality. Voting for them in any election is only option for anyone wanting Scotland to be an independent country.Paristonda said:
Out of interest, did you vote SNP at the last elections, or a different pro-indy party (GE and Holyrood)?malcolmg said:
Another halfwit , I have nothing to do with or have ever been associated with the SNP.runnymede said:
That's right, 'proper Scots' must be SNP, as our SNP posters have consistently told us.nunu said:
ah I see only SNP are true Scots?malcolmg said:
He is a halfwit and called himself North British, he is no real Scotsman.JonnyJimmy said:
I don't think Malc considers Brown to be a true ScotsmanThreeQuidder said:
Because of Gordon Brown.malcolmg said:If you are talking about borrowing , why is England borrowing £100B a year you halfwit.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.0 -
Pretty much my thoughts on the matter. I want an EEA style deal that allows the four freedoms. I would not want a re-entry in the forseable future, and I am sure that we would be vetoed as troublemakers if we tried. Farron was foolish and premature to proclaim re-entry as policy, not least because policy should be decided within the party and voted on at conference rather than by dictat. We are not UKIP.Paristonda said:
The idea of joining the EU after we leave is DOA. It's just a policy for the LDs to snap up angry remainers SNP style. The country will grow to accept Brexit. I'm a genuine europhile and even I have accepted we are leaving and shouldn't overturn the result. Any negative economic consequences such as actual recessions will be too in the near future for us to contemplate the idea, and 20 years down the line, the economic cost is in lost opportunity - harder to quantify and therefore harder to convince people we made the wrong choice.John_M said:
I'm offendedstodge said:
Traditional lazy thinking from some on here to assume the LDs are Europhile. I'm a Lib Dem and I voted LEAVE - the constant mantra of "the EU can be reformed" just doesn't wash any more.IanB2 said:<
I would say that is most unlikely, given his background.
There will always be a constituency that would support closer ties with Europe. Even if Brexit goes very well, that constituency will be there, although in such cicurmstances not really a vote winner.
If Brexit goes very badly, all bets are off...
Farron's policy of wanting a second referendum to join the EU is fair enough. I have never heard anything but adulation from any Lib Dem spokesman. There's occasionally been a soundbite about 'a reformed EU', but I don't think it's just laziness that's lead me to believe that the Lib Dems are crazed on the topic. That Farron is even contemplating (as you say, sans opt outs) leading us back in says it all.
Tempering it to as much cooperation as possible (e.g. Horizon, Erasmus, ITER, ESA, CERN etc) is fine.
Fundamentally though, once we leave the EU will never accept us back. Just like we will survive post-brexit, so will the EU, they won't desperately need us as a member, and they wouldn't trust us enough - much as de Gaulle didn't in the 60s.
To stick with the often used divorce analogy, it would be like two exes getting back together post divorce and living happily ever after - only ever happens in the movies.
In reality, the fundamental problems with the relationship are still there and those couples that do try it nearly always split up again! I don't think we want an "on again-off again" relationship with the EU!0 -
Strawberries with warm porridge? The world has gone mad!Tissue_Price said:0 -
Sounds ok to me. Prep for disappointment.foxinsoxuk said:
Pretty much my thoughts on the matter. I want an EEA style deal that allows the four freedomsParistonda said:
The idea of joining the EU after we leave is DOA. It's just a policy for the LDs to snap up angry remainers SNP style. The country will grow to accept Brexit. I'm a genuine europhile and even I have accepted we are leaving and shouldn't overturn the result. Any negative economic consequences such as actual recessions will be too in the near future for us to contemplate the idea, and 20 years down the line, the economic cost is in lost opportunity - harder to quantify and therefore harder to convince people we made the wrong choice.John_M said:
I'm offendedstodge said:
Traditional lazy thinking from some on here to assume the LDs are Europhile. I'm a Lib Dem and I voted LEAVE - the constant mantra of "the EU can be reformed" just doesn't wash any more.IanB2 said:<
I would say that is most unlikely, given his background.
There will always be a constituency that would support closer ties with Europe. Even if Brexit goes very well, that constituency will be there, although in such cicurmstances not really a vote winner.
If Brexit goes very badly, all bets are off...
Farron's policy of wanting a second referendum to join the EU is fair enough. I have never heard anything but adulation from any Lib Dem spokesman. There's occasionally been a soundbite about 'a reformed EU', but I don't think it's just laziness that's lead me to believe that the Lib Dems are crazed on the topic. That Farron is even contemplating (as you say, sans opt outs) leading us back in says it all.
Tempering it to as much cooperation as possible (e.g. Horizon, Erasmus, ITER, ESA, CERN etc) is fine.
Fundamentally though, once we leave the EU will never accept us back. Just like we will survive post-brexit, so will the EU, they won't desperately need us as a member, and they wouldn't trust us enough - much as de Gaulle didn't in the 60s.
To stick with the often used divorce analogy, it would be like two exes getting back together post divorce and living happily ever after - only ever happens in the movies.
In reality, the fundamental problems with the relationship are still there and those couples that do try it nearly always split up again! I don't think we want an "on again-off again" relationship with the EU!
0 -
I've no problem with replacing the submarines and the missiles but I am opposed to increasing the numbers of either. Blair suggested a reduction in submarines from four to three and in warheads from 200 to 160. That doesn't seem unreasonable. I could accept the status quo - I don't see the argument for more submarines or more warheads.John_M said:
Hawks, doves, idiots and ignoramuses in that order. I have no idea how the 10% manage to tie their shoelaces. Presumably they're dressed by their Mums.SeanT said:If I'm not mistaken, the British public has become MORE hawkish about the nuclear deterrent, over time, not less. Which makes sense, in these perilous days
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/755779501930405893
0 -
I mean, too late for Hollande.williamglenn said:
It's never too late and France is hardly an economic basket case.rcs1000 said:
The right thing done far too late. The only beneficiary will be Alain Juppe, who will credit for Valls reforms.John_M said:France in August is going to be even more fun than normal. Valls rams his labour reforms through.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-politics-protests-idUSKCN1001YM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
(Like Merkel got credit for Schroder's labour reforms.)0 -
Lol. Take your point but you are conveniently forgetting the howls of protest if there is even the hint of a suggestion that pensioners take their share of the cuts. And I speak as one.HurstLlama said:
I know of no pensioner who is more concerned for themselves than they are for their offspring. You may wish to consider the idea that pensioners maybe more willing to vote Conservative has bugger all to do with having "money thrown at them" but something to do with people who have seen life making a mature judgement about which party is likely to produce the best life chances for their children and, especially, grandchildren.SouthamObserver said:
And the Tories have been throwing money at them for six years :-)chestnut said:Pensioners:
Tory 58 Labour 15 UKIP 13
Old folk - the children of Beveridge - have written Labour off.
They know their client vote.0 -
Que? A constituency win is a constituency win surely? And Davidson took seven of them in May.malcolmg said:
Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.
If the Conservatives won 24% in Scotland - and they took 22% in May - I think 6 would be ballpark for their return, and possibly on the low side.
FWIW, I suspect it's a bit of a top-side outlier but given the Holyrood result, perhaps not by all that much. We'll have another chance to cross-check polls next year with the local elections there.0 -
Err.. "Scottish Tories" and "duff" seldom go together....malcolmg said:
Emphasis is they cannot win seats they have to be given them as consolation prizes for being duff and hated..ThreeQuidder said:
Emphasis added...malcolmg said:
Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.
0 -
I believe the number of warheads is already sub-200. I suppose four rather than three for operational reasons.stodge said:
I've no problem with replacing the submarines and the missiles but I am opposed to increasing the numbers of either. Blair suggested a reduction in submarines from four to three and in warheads from 200 to 160. That doesn't seem unreasonable. I could accept the status quo - I don't see the argument for more submarines or more warheads.John_M said:
Hawks, doves, idiots and ignoramuses in that order. I have no idea how the 10% manage to tie their shoelaces. Presumably they're dressed by their Mums.SeanT said:If I'm not mistaken, the British public has become MORE hawkish about the nuclear deterrent, over time, not less. Which makes sense, in these perilous days
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7557795019304058930 -
My reading is that it's track that's most affected by hot weather, though local news in Brum last night had an item on the Midland Metro trams overheating, but then concluded the Aircon can't cope because the doors open too frequently due to the close proximity of metro stops!Patrick said:Sunil, you're a train geek (this is a compliment). Why are trains in 2016 affected by rain, snow, lightning and hot weather. I've spent a lot of hours delayed at Waterloo just recently and was wondering if the UK is uniquely plagued by unreliable trains or if the worldwide technology is better than ours. How hard can it be to design a rain, snow and heat indifferent/tolerant train?
0 -
0528-0600 is daylight in summerSunil_Prasannan said:
Due to my ubergeekery, I like to do these obscure lines in daylight where available. A year ago today I did Corby to Oakham in both directions (1636 Derby to Kettering, then 1900 Kettering to Melton Mowbray).stodge said:
Yep, the late running 16:59 from Woking to Waterloo was the service. We were 17 minutes late at Surbiton and the driver announced over the intercom to the guard "we are going via east Putney". We veered off just after Wimbledon and took the scenic route.Sunil_Prasannan said:<
Did you do it in daylight? I thought that train only ran around midnight. I have yet to do it!
There are a few services which use the route - the 05:28 from Woking is timed to take 32 minutes to get to Clapham Junction because it goes that way round - normal route time for a fast service would be 20 minutes. The 01:05 from London Waterloo to Southampton Central goes to Paltform 6 at Clapham then goes down the East Putney route to Wimbledon.
I take it you are familiar with this website?
http://www.psul4all.free-online.co.uk/2016.htm 0 -
But they won 7 fptp seats.malcolmg said:
Emphasis is they cannot win seats they have to be given them as consolation prizes for being duff and hated..ThreeQuidder said:
Emphasis added...malcolmg said:
Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.0 -
Yeah but I'll have to get to Woking by 0528!!ThreeQuidder said:
0528-0600 is daylight in summerSunil_Prasannan said:
Due to my ubergeekery, I like to do these obscure lines in daylight where available. A year ago today I did Corby to Oakham in both directions (1636 Derby to Kettering, then 1900 Kettering to Melton Mowbray).stodge said:
Yep, the late running 16:59 from Woking to Waterloo was the service. We were 17 minutes late at Surbiton and the driver announced over the intercom to the guard "we are going via east Putney". We veered off just after Wimbledon and took the scenic route.Sunil_Prasannan said:<
Did you do it in daylight? I thought that train only ran around midnight. I have yet to do it!
There are a few services which use the route - the 05:28 from Woking is timed to take 32 minutes to get to Clapham Junction because it goes that way round - normal route time for a fast service would be 20 minutes. The 01:05 from London Waterloo to Southampton Central goes to Paltform 6 at Clapham then goes down the East Putney route to Wimbledon.
I take it you are familiar with this website?
http://www.psul4all.free-online.co.uk/2016.htm0 -
The number of missiles per sub is already being cut (28 to 20 iirc). We were pretty sure that you can't achieve CaS without four subs.stodge said:
I've no problem with replacing the submarines and the missiles but I am opposed to increasing the numbers of either. Blair suggested a reduction in submarines from four to three and in warheads from 200 to 160. That doesn't seem unreasonable. I could accept the status quo - I don't see the argument for more submarines or more warheads.John_M said:
Hawks, doves, idiots and ignoramuses in that order. I have no idea how the 10% manage to tie their shoelaces. Presumably they're dressed by their Mums.SeanT said:If I'm not mistaken, the British public has become MORE hawkish about the nuclear deterrent, over time, not less. Which makes sense, in these perilous days
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/7557795019304058930 -
I suppose it isn't worth the investment to upgrade the AC for the few days it's hot enough to need it!Sunil_Prasannan said:
My reading is that it's track that's most affected by hot weather, though local news in Brum last night had an item on the Midland Metro trams overheating, but then concluded the Aircon can't cope because the doors open too frequently due to the close proximity of metro stops!Patrick said:Sunil, you're a train geek (this is a compliment). Why are trains in 2016 affected by rain, snow, lightning and hot weather. I've spent a lot of hours delayed at Waterloo just recently and was wondering if the UK is uniquely plagued by unreliable trains or if the worldwide technology is better than ours. How hard can it be to design a rain, snow and heat indifferent/tolerant train?
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As a fellow SWT regular (usually to Guildford or Woking, occasionally Winchester), I sympathise and understand. Regrettably some of the delays are due to people committing suicide at places like Wimbledon and Surbiton against which there's only so much that can be done.Patrick said:Sunil, you're a train geek (this is a compliment). Why are trains in 2016 affected by rain, snow, lightning and hot weather. I've spent a lot of hours delayed at Waterloo just recently and was wondering if the UK is uniquely plagued by unreliable trains or if the worldwide technology is better than ours. How hard can it be to design a rain, snow and heat indifferent/tolerant train?
SWT are vulnerable because if trains get delayed, staff get delayed which means more delays and the service takes forever to recover from problems. They are inventive as yesterday proved using unusual routes and taking out intermediate stations so services can get to Waterloo more quickly but until the old Eurostar platforms come back into service, they have 19 platforms and just four lines coming up (2 fast, 2 slow) from Woking to Wimbledon and beyond and losing one or more or those lines has a huge knock-on effect.
I also find lightning, water and electrical circuitry don't mix well.
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Apart from the constituency seats they won. How many of those are there?malcolmg said:
Emphasis is they cannot win seats they have to be given them as consolation prizes for being duff and hated..ThreeQuidder said:
Emphasis added...malcolmg said:
Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.0 -
Rob, they never reach the dizzy heights of just being "duff" so I stand corrected. I was trying to be kind.RobD said:
Err.. "Scottish Tories" and "duff" seldom go together....malcolmg said:
Emphasis is they cannot win seats they have to be given them as consolation prizes for being duff and hated..ThreeQuidder said:
Emphasis added...malcolmg said:
Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.0 -
I have travelled by train in Spain, France, Germany, Poland, Czech, Slovakia and Hungary in recent years. The only ones that let me down were the French and Germans. The Germans twice! On both the long distance trains that I took with DB.Patrick said:Sunil, you're a train geek (this is a compliment). Why are trains in 2016 affected by rain, snow, lightning and hot weather. I've spent a lot of hours delayed at Waterloo just recently and was wondering if the UK is uniquely plagued by unreliable trains or if the worldwide technology is better than ours. How hard can it be to design a rain, snow and heat indifferent/tolerant train?
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They have 24 hours to mount a censure motion against the government or otherwise it is considered as definitively adopted.John_M said:France in August is going to be even more fun than normal. Valls rams his labour reforms through.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-politics-protests-idUSKCN1001YM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
Sounds like Valls is making it an Issue of Confidence, in UK parlence.0 -
They will never get 7 seats in a GE. They benefitted from an anti Labour split otherwise it would have been business as usual.nunu said:
But they won 7 fptp seats.malcolmg said:
Emphasis is they cannot win seats they have to be given them as consolation prizes for being duff and hated..ThreeQuidder said:
Emphasis added...malcolmg said:
Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.0 -
That's correct. Heat can buckle rails (even if 32 degrees air temperature direct sun can heat them up far more than that, leading to necessary speed restrictions) and the heat yesterday also affected signalling.stodge said:
As a fellow SWT regular (usually to Guildford or Woking, occasionally Winchester), I sympathise and understand. Regrettably some of the delays are due to people committing suicide at places like Wimbledon and Surbiton against which there's only so much that can be done.Patrick said:Sunil, you're a train geek (this is a compliment). Why are trains in 2016 affected by rain, snow, lightning and hot weather. I've spent a lot of hours delayed at Waterloo just recently and was wondering if the UK is uniquely plagued by unreliable trains or if the worldwide technology is better than ours. How hard can it be to design a rain, snow and heat indifferent/tolerant train?
SWT are vulnerable because if trains get delayed, staff get delayed which means more delays and the service takes forever to recover from problems. They are inventive as yesterday proved using unusual routes and taking out intermediate stations so services can get to Waterloo more quickly but until the old Eurostar platforms come back into service, they have 19 platforms and just four lines coming up (2 fast, 2 slow) from Woking to Wimbledon and beyond and losing one or more or those lines has a huge knock-on effect.
I also find lightning, water and electrical circuitry don't mix well.
Alas, a lot of our infrastructure is just rather old and susceptible to problems.0 -
Very goodmalcolmg said:
Rob, they never reach the dizzy heights of just being "duff" so I stand corrected. I was trying to be kind.RobD said:
Err.. "Scottish Tories" and "duff" seldom go together....malcolmg said:
Emphasis is they cannot win seats they have to be given them as consolation prizes for being duff and hated..ThreeQuidder said:
Emphasis added...malcolmg said:
Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals. 0 -
Although I watch PMQs only infrequently, I've noticed that Angus Robertson is allowed to ask two questions every Wednesday - it always seems to be him and not another SNP member, although I do recall that last week at Dave's swansong, a rather unpleasant female SNP MP, whose name I can't recall, droned on for about two minutes, her face contorted with bitterness, completely failing to capture the otherwise generous mood of the House towards the outgoing Prime Minister.
Is this now part of the formalised deal at PMQs or simply at the Speaker's discretion?
The LibDems must be spitting blood with poor Two Taxis Tim just being squeezed in and unceremoiously slapped down by La May at 12.36 pm according to my watch.0 -
Absolutely - yesterday was a real treat. I was in the rear coach of a 12-coach train, had the carriage to myself, aircon on full blast. I really didn't mind it took more than an hour from Woking.I was cool and comfortable and able to enjoy the ride.Sunil_Prasannan said:Due to my ubergeekery, I like to do these obscure lines in daylight where available. A year ago today I did Corby to Oakham in both directions (1636 Derby to Kettering, then 1900 Kettering to Melton Mowbray).
I take it you are familiar with this website?
http://www.psul4all.free-online.co.uk/2016.htm
I've done both the New Beckenham to Beckenham Junction loop which is used when there are engineering works on the main line from Hither Green to Petts Wood as a diversion for trains to Orpington and of course the Barking "flyover" as I'm sure you'd expect.
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Oh yeah, on Monday, returned from Skegness towards Nottingham on the 1730 which by-passed Grantham allowing me to do the Allington Curvefoxinsoxuk said:
I have travelled by train in Spain, France, Germany, Poland, Czech, Slovakia and Hungary in recent years. The only ones that let me down were the French and Germans. The Germans twice! On both the long distance trains that I took with DB.Patrick said:Sunil, you're a train geek (this is a compliment). Why are trains in 2016 affected by rain, snow, lightning and hot weather. I've spent a lot of hours delayed at Waterloo just recently and was wondering if the UK is uniquely plagued by unreliable trains or if the worldwide technology is better than ours. How hard can it be to design a rain, snow and heat indifferent/tolerant train?
0 -
Sandpit said:
They have 24 hours to mount a censure motion against the government or otherwise it is considered as definitively adopted.John_M said:France in August is going to be even more fun than normal. Valls rams his labour reforms through.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-politics-protests-idUSKCN1001YM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
Sounds like Valls is making it an Issue of Confidence, in UK parlence.
Interesting. They have a reverse Parliament act where the upper chamber can overrule the lower one.Sandpit said:
They have 24 hours to mount a censure motion against the government or otherwise it is considered as definitively adopted.John_M said:France in August is going to be even more fun than normal. Valls rams his labour reforms through.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-politics-protests-idUSKCN1001YM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
Sounds like Valls is making it an Issue of Confidence, in UK parlence.0 -
Skegness must have been a bit less bracing than usual on Monday.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Oh yeah, on Monday, returned from Skegness towards Nottingham on the 1730 which by-passed Grantham allowing me to do the Allington Curvefoxinsoxuk said:
I have travelled by train in Spain, France, Germany, Poland, Czech, Slovakia and Hungary in recent years. The only ones that let me down were the French and Germans. The Germans twice! On both the long distance trains that I took with DB.Patrick said:Sunil, you're a train geek (this is a compliment). Why are trains in 2016 affected by rain, snow, lightning and hot weather. I've spent a lot of hours delayed at Waterloo just recently and was wondering if the UK is uniquely plagued by unreliable trains or if the worldwide technology is better than ours. How hard can it be to design a rain, snow and heat indifferent/tolerant train?
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FPT and Milo Yiannopoulos.
Having read a little into this, I am mainly with Milo. I think Twitter were looking for a convenient victim to appease the SJW mob, and Milo was the unfortunate (may turn out to be fortunate for him) person on this occasion.
Milo's sins seem to be:
1 - Writing a vitriolic review of a film, Ghostbusters, which had been set up as an icon of an ideology he dislikes, and turned out to be a poor film - IMDB rating is far below average at 5.3 vs 6.4.
"Teenage Boys with Tits: Here's my Problem with Ghostbusters".
http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/07/18/milo-reviews-ghostbusters/
2 - Posting 2 (or maybe a few) tweets which are alleged to be offensive, eg
https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2016-07/19/22/asset/buzzfeed-prod-web06/sub-buzz-20464-1468981900-1.png?no-auto
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/milo-tweet.jpg?w=669
Leslie Jones doesn't have a spotless record herself, and wasn't able to decide whether she was being subjected to a "fake account" or hacking.
In the context of the conversations this is just everyday stuff that happens on all sides.
Twitter shot themselves in the foot with a bazooka, imo.
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There are more Holyrood constituency seats than Westminster constituencies and the boundaries are better for the Cons at Holyrood e.g. in Ayrshire.david_herdson said:
Que? A constituency win is a constituency win surely? And Davidson took seven of them in May.malcolmg said:
Yes but they only made it up due to getting , list seats. They will never get 6 in a GE.david_herdson said:
How many constituency seats did the Conservatives win at this year's Scottish election, malcolm? Give you a clue - it wasn't 6. (Yes, there are more up for grabs but it wouldn't make that much difference.malcolmg said:
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.
If the Conservatives won 24% in Scotland - and they took 22% in May - I think 6 would be ballpark for their return, and possibly on the low side.
FWIW, I suspect it's a bit of a top-side outlier but given the Holyrood result, perhaps not by all that much. We'll have another chance to cross-check polls next year with the local elections there.
If you look at the Con target list, only 1 of the top 50 target seats is in Scotland
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative0 -
4 submarines and say 100 warheads is something with which I would be completely comfortable. I am opposed to increasing our deterrent - a reduction in missiles while keeping the current number of submarines (and I understand the need for four rather than three) is perfectly fine by me.John_M said:
The number of missiles per sub is already being cut (28 to 20 iirc). We were pretty sure that you can't achieve CaS without four subs.
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There is a minimum, though. You do need sufficient numbers of missiles and flexibility of delivery options to make the deterrent threat real.stodge said:
I've no problem with replacing the submarines and the missiles but I am opposed to increasing the numbers of either. Blair suggested a reduction in submarines from four to three and in warheads from 200 to 160. That doesn't seem unreasonable. I could accept the status quo - I don't see the argument for more submarines or more warheads.John_M said:
Hawks, doves, idiots and ignoramuses in that order. I have no idea how the 10% manage to tie their shoelaces. Presumably they're dressed by their Mums.SeanT said:If I'm not mistaken, the British public has become MORE hawkish about the nuclear deterrent, over time, not less. Which makes sense, in these perilous days
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/755779501930405893
Some missiles may not launch, some may fail to reach their targets, some may not detonate and you have to threaten enough places to make your deterrent a scary prospect.0 -
The government cannot tell us what Brexit means, despite now being official policy nearly a month after we voted for it. So I don't think it is reasonable to expect the LibDems to spell out what rejoining would look like so soon!stodge said:
No offence intended, my friend. I wouldn't say it's been adulation but more a "hope" that "somehow" the EU will be able to reform itself to something more to the UK's liking. If it takes the threat of our departure or indeed our actual departure to bring about that change, I'll appreciate the irony.John_M said:I'm offended
. I have never heard anything but adulation from any Lib Dem spokesman. There's occasionally been a soundbite about 'a reformed EU', but I don't think it's just laziness that's lead me to believe that the Lib Dems are crazed on the topic. That Farron is even contemplating (as you say, sans opt outs) leading us back in says it all.
Tempering it to as much cooperation as possible (e.g. Horizon, Erasmus, ITER, ESA, CERN etc) is fine.
Farron's position needs defining - on June 23rd, we didn't just reject Cameron's renegotiated terms, we voted to Leave the EU. Now, saying we should rejoin the EU is a valid position - no problem there - but there seems an implicit assumption from Farron we can simply walk back in as though nothing had happened.
We shouldn't and can't - can we negotiate terms for our re-entry from the EU ? In theory, no but in practice, yes. It seems unrealistic to assume all the opt-outs will be handed back without a word and the elephant in the room, the Euro, will still be there. If the price of Britain returning to the EU is the Euro, no one here will pay it.
As I see it, we can't return to the EU without making commitments on the Single Market and control of our borders that a majority specifically rejected on June 23rd. If we are offered membership of the EU without being a net contributor, with control of our borders and without having to sign up to the full panoply of the Single Market, fantastic. I just can't see that ever being on the table.0 -
''That's correct. Heat can buckle rails (even if 32 degrees air temperature direct sun can heat them up far more than that, leading to necessary speed restrictions) and the heat yesterday also affected signalling.''
That's not the fault of SWT of course. The rails and signalling are all operated by the nationalised track operator.
I'm sure SWT find it exasperating sometimes. If not all the time.0 -
It is a privilege of the second Opposition Party, if of appropriate size (not sure if this is formalised anywhere, but 20 would be my guess), for their leader to get 2 questions.peter_from_putney said:Although I watch PMQs only infrequently, I've noticed that Angus Robertson is allowed to ask two questions every Wednesday - it always seems to be him and not another SNP member, although I do recall that last week at Dave's swansong, a rather unpleasant female SNP MP, whose name I can't recall, droned on for about two minutes, her face contorted with bitterness, completely failing to capture the otherwise generous mood of the House towards the outgoing Prime Minister.
Is this now part of the formalised deal at PMQs or simply at the Speaker's discretion?
The LibDems must be spitting blood with poor Two Taxis Tim just being squeezed in and unceremoiously slapped down by La May at 12.36 pm according to my watch.
The Lib Dems used to have this privilege prior to 2010; no one had it during the coalition. Corbyn may yet get it.0
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