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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s first PMQs: She’s going be a challenge for either Cor

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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,061
    Been out today... blimey that put down about an unscrupulous boss was 'off the scale'...
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,725

    Patrick said:

    Sunil, you're a train geek (this is a compliment). Why are trains in 2016 affected by rain, snow, lightning and hot weather. I've spent a lot of hours delayed at Waterloo just recently and was wondering if the UK is uniquely plagued by unreliable trains or if the worldwide technology is better than ours. How hard can it be to design a rain, snow and heat indifferent/tolerant train?

    I have travelled by train in Spain, France, Germany, Poland, Czech, Slovakia and Hungary in recent years. The only ones that let me down were the French and Germans. The Germans twice! On both the long distance trains that I took with DB.
    Oh yeah, on Monday, returned from Skegness towards Nottingham on the 1730 which by-passed Grantham allowing me to do the Allington Curve :)
    Skegness must have been a bit less bracing than usual on Monday.
    It was a little on the hot side yes :)

    But my ticket from Nottingham to Skeggie return was less than a Labour Party leadership (2016 edition) vote!
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,272

    Although I watch PMQs only infrequently, I've noticed that Angus Robertson is allowed to ask two questions every Wednesday - it always seems to be him and not another SNP member, although I do recall that last week at Dave's swansong, a rather unpleasant female SNP MP, whose name I can't recall, droned on for about two minutes, her face contorted with bitterness, completely failing to capture the otherwise generous mood of the House towards the outgoing Prime Minister.
    Is this now part of the formalised deal at PMQs or simply at the Speaker's discretion?
    The LibDems must be spitting blood with poor Two Taxis Tim just being squeezed in and unceremoiously slapped down by La May at 12.36 pm according to my watch.

    It is down to numbers of MP's , the LD's are nonentities , couln not fill a taxi.
    Robertson is the SNP Leader in Westminster hence why he asks most of teh questions.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042

    Been out today... blimey that put down about an unscrupulous boss was 'off the scale'...

    From Deacon

    Naturally enough, Tory MPs were in ecstasy. They were wailing, gasping, groaning for more. Their excitement was downright unseemly.

    :D
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Have they no sense of honour or shame?
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/755791495219863552
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    John_M said:

    I'm offended :). I have never heard anything but adulation from any Lib Dem spokesman. There's occasionally been a soundbite about 'a reformed EU', but I don't think it's just laziness that's lead me to believe that the Lib Dems are crazed on the topic. That Farron is even contemplating (as you say, sans opt outs) leading us back in says it all.

    Tempering it to as much cooperation as possible (e.g. Horizon, Erasmus, ITER, ESA, CERN etc) is fine.

    No offence intended, my friend. I wouldn't say it's been adulation but more a "hope" that "somehow" the EU will be able to reform itself to something more to the UK's liking. If it takes the threat of our departure or indeed our actual departure to bring about that change, I'll appreciate the irony.

    Farron's position needs defining - on June 23rd, we didn't just reject Cameron's renegotiated terms, we voted to Leave the EU. Now, saying we should rejoin the EU is a valid position - no problem there - but there seems an implicit assumption from Farron we can simply walk back in as though nothing had happened.

    We shouldn't and can't - can we negotiate terms for our re-entry from the EU ? In theory, no but in practice, yes. It seems unrealistic to assume all the opt-outs will be handed back without a word and the elephant in the room, the Euro, will still be there. If the price of Britain returning to the EU is the Euro, no one here will pay it.

    As I see it, we can't return to the EU without making commitments on the Single Market and control of our borders that a majority specifically rejected on June 23rd. If we are offered membership of the EU without being a net contributor, with control of our borders and without having to sign up to the full panoply of the Single Market, fantastic. I just can't see that ever being on the table.

    The government cannot tell us what Brexit means, despite now being official policy nearly a month after we voted for it. So I don't think it is reasonable to expect the LibDems to spell out what rejoining would look like so soon!
    That's right. Despite various factions champing at the bit, May is perfectly correct to remain opaque. We can't say what Brexit means because it's not within our gift. Most of the have cake/eat cake people would love it if we managed, SM please, no FoM. Some have fantasised about that in public. It's nonsense.

    We have 27 counterparties to deal with (well, realistically a dozen or so). We know that we'd like to take control of immigration, but the degree to which we can do so under the various treaty umbrellas is again, dependent on the concessions the EU require.

    Talking about what we want prior to actual negotiations is to repeat Cameron's mistake.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,963


    There is a minimum, though. You do need sufficient numbers of missiles and flexibility of delivery options to make the deterrent threat real.

    Some missiles may not launch, some may fail to reach their targets, some may not detonate and you have to threaten enough places to make your deterrent a scary prospect.

    I see no argument for increasing the size of the current deterrent. Improvements in missile technology should ensure a greater percentage will launch "successfully" and the difference between 180 and 220 isn't worth worrying about in terms of deterrence. On that basis, I think we can reduce the numbers - currently it's 220, Blair suggested 160, I'd go with 180 but it's not that important.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926

    Have they no sense of honour or shame?
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/755791495219863552

    I thought Owen Smith had said that the other day
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042
    stodge said:


    There is a minimum, though. You do need sufficient numbers of missiles and flexibility of delivery options to make the deterrent threat real.

    Some missiles may not launch, some may fail to reach their targets, some may not detonate and you have to threaten enough places to make your deterrent a scary prospect.

    I see no argument for increasing the size of the current deterrent. Improvements in missile technology should ensure a greater percentage will launch "successfully" and the difference between 180 and 220 isn't worth worrying about in terms of deterrence. On that basis, I think we can reduce the numbers - currently it's 220, Blair suggested 160, I'd go with 180 but it's not that important.

    Only 160 warheads are operational according to Wikipedia.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    Andrea Leadsom’s responsibilities for climate change have been thrown into confusion after a Government department suggested she had been stripped of her sole role in combating global warming.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/cabinet-office-publishes-plan-to-strip-andrea-leadsom-of-sole-climate-change-role_uk_578eb1f3e4b0b545e5cbe63c?edition=uk&utm_hp_ref=uk&
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,963
    Ah hubris, thy name is the Conservative Party.

    They thought they were unbeatable in 1992 - perhaps next year the BBC will re-run Election Night 1997 to mark the 20th Anniversary just to remind us all how right they were !!

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    stodge said:

    Ah hubris, thy name is the Conservative Party.

    They thought they were unbeatable in 1992 - perhaps next year the BBC will re-run Election Night 1997 to mark the 20th Anniversary just to remind us all how right they were !!

    I believe Tim Bale is a Labour supporter.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    Hubris. Negotiating our way out of a 43-year old relationship in a slowing global economy while borrowing £75 billion p.a. (with more to come) and an 83% debt/GDP ratio is hardly the stuff of political dreams. May needs to stay gritty, realistic and humble (would also be grateful if Davis could stfu as well).

    PS @David_Evershed Thanks for the link earlier. Very interesting. I am, apparently, a Liberal, if not an LD.
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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 921
    edited July 2016
    stodge said:


    There is a minimum, though. You do need sufficient numbers of missiles and flexibility of delivery options to make the deterrent threat real.

    Some missiles may not launch, some may fail to reach their targets, some may not detonate and you have to threaten enough places to make your deterrent a scary prospect.

    I see no argument for increasing the size of the current deterrent. Improvements in missile technology should ensure a greater percentage will launch "successfully" and the difference between 180 and 220 isn't worth worrying about in terms of deterrence. On that basis, I think we can reduce the numbers - currently it's 220, Blair suggested 160, I'd go with 180 but it's not that important.

    Surely we have installed bombs in our embassy in Moscow (and the Russians in theirs in London) - why go to the uncertainty of a missile delivery system when it is easier by DHL?

    I should stress that as my grandfather worked for Vickers Armstong in Barrow we should still build the subs!!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,944
    DavidL said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    Not a bad effort. Still miss Dave though.

    At least Theresa doesn't go red in the face and get shouty - I thought she kept an even temper throughout
    If you thought Cameron was genuinely angry and losing his temper then I suspect you have not conducted many court hearings.
    Nor indeed appeared in any.

    But that's the first time I've read someone argue that Cameron's flushing was other than involuntary....

    Absence does indeed make the heart grow fonder....

    Or is that Absinthe.....?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    John_M said:

    Hubris. Negotiating our way out of a 43-year old relationship in a slowing global economy while borrowing £75 billion p.a. (with more to come) and an 83% debt/GDP ratio is hardly the stuff of political dreams. May needs to stay gritty, realistic and humble (would also be grateful if Davis could stfu as well).
    It is interesting how many Tories, both Remainers and Leavers, wets and dries etc, are all unified in thinking David Davis as Brexit Secretary is a disaster waiting to happen.

    Liam Fox would have done a better job.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Andrea Leadsom’s responsibilities for climate change have been thrown into confusion after a Government department suggested she had been stripped of her sole role in combating global warming.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/cabinet-office-publishes-plan-to-strip-andrea-leadsom-of-sole-climate-change-role_uk_578eb1f3e4b0b545e5cbe63c?edition=uk&utm_hp_ref=uk&

    "The Cabinet Office on Tuesday published a paper entitled ‘Machinery of Government’"

    Well straight away you can tell the author doesn't understand what they are reading!
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    stodge said:

    Ah hubris, thy name is the Conservative Party.

    They thought they were unbeatable in 1992 - perhaps next year the BBC will re-run Election Night 1997 to mark the 20th Anniversary just to remind us all how right they were !!

    Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us since the Second World War. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,944

    Andrea Leadsom’s responsibilities for climate change have been thrown into confusion after a Government department suggested she had been stripped of her sole role in combating global warming.

    She's going to be busy delivering LEAVE's promises placating farmers...
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,553

    stodge said:

    Ah hubris, thy name is the Conservative Party.

    They thought they were unbeatable in 1992 - perhaps next year the BBC will re-run Election Night 1997 to mark the 20th Anniversary just to remind us all how right they were !!

    Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us since the Second World War. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    By cutting the budgets of local authorities so much that there is no civic life any more.

    But I do agree - the Tories will win big. Which is why she's going to the country this year.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    felix said:

    chestnut said:

    Pensioners:

    Tory 58 Labour 15 UKIP 13

    Old folk - the children of Beveridge - have written Labour off.

    And the Tories have been throwing money at them for six years :-)

    They know their client vote.
    I know of no pensioner who is more concerned for themselves than they are for their offspring. You may wish to consider the idea that pensioners maybe more willing to vote Conservative has bugger all to do with having "money thrown at them" but something to do with people who have seen life making a mature judgement about which party is likely to produce the best life chances for their children and, especially, grandchildren.
    Lol. Take your point but you are conveniently forgetting the howls of protest if there is even the hint of a suggestion that pensioners take their share of the cuts. And I speak as one.
    I do forget the howls of protest, Mr Felix, mainly because aside from on here I have not actually heard them, at least not for a long time (brown's 75p increase I think was the last time). I do however hear my contemporaries saying how daft it is that they are still given winter fuel allowance and bus passes when they do not need them.

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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016

    John_M said:

    Hubris. Negotiating our way out of a 43-year old relationship in a slowing global economy while borrowing £75 billion p.a. (with more to come) and an 83% debt/GDP ratio is hardly the stuff of political dreams. May needs to stay gritty, realistic and humble (would also be grateful if Davis could stfu as well).
    It is interesting how many Tories, both Remainers and Leavers, wets and dries etc, are all unified in thinking David Davis as Brexit Secretary is a disaster waiting to happen.

    Liam Fox would have done a better job.
    'Under-promise and over-deliver' is the hoariest of all old business chestnuts. We're about to do hard things. Tone is incredibly important.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Have they no sense of honour or shame?
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/755791495219863552

    Is this a prelude to an honour killing or is that too unPC?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    , a rather unpleasant female SNP MP, whose name I can't recall, droned on for about two minutes, her face contorted with bitterness, completely failing to capture the otherwise generous mood of the House towards the outgoing Prime Minister.

    That was the SNP in generous mood....

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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    stodge said:

    Ah hubris, thy name is the Conservative Party.

    They thought they were unbeatable in 1992 - perhaps next year the BBC will re-run Election Night 1997 to mark the 20th Anniversary just to remind us all how right they were !!

    After the 1992 election, I doubt very much many Tory MPs thought they were 'unbeatable'. Mr Blair quickly destroyed any notion of 'hubris', even if any existed. As for now, and not then, what party in power would not delight in an opposition destroying itself?

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
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    malcolmg said:

    Although I watch PMQs only infrequently, I've noticed that Angus Robertson is allowed to ask two questions every Wednesday - it always seems to be him and not another SNP member, although I do recall that last week at Dave's swansong, a rather unpleasant female SNP MP, whose name I can't recall, droned on for about two minutes, her face contorted with bitterness, completely failing to capture the otherwise generous mood of the House towards the outgoing Prime Minister.
    Is this now part of the formalised deal at PMQs or simply at the Speaker's discretion?
    The LibDems must be spitting blood with poor Two Taxis Tim just being squeezed in and unceremoiously slapped down by La May at 12.36 pm according to my watch.

    It is down to numbers of MP's , the LD's are nonentities , couln not fill a taxi.
    Robertson is the SNP Leader in Westminster hence why he asks most of teh questions.
    That's unfair, a London Black Cab holds 5 passengers, the LibDems 8 members would therefore fill 1.6 cabs or say 2 cabs comfortably, assuming they don't have any Cyril Smith-type fatties these days, which I believe is the case.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    Labour supporters have cooled on Corbyn, Guardian survey finds

    Survey finds enthusiasm waning for Labour party leader but no evidence of support for any other candidate

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/20/labour-supporters-have-cooled-on-corbyn-guardian-survey-finds?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    stodge said:

    Ah hubris, thy name is the Conservative Party.

    They thought they were unbeatable in 1992 - perhaps next year the BBC will re-run Election Night 1997 to mark the 20th Anniversary just to remind us all how right they were !!

    Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us since the Second World War. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    By cutting the budgets of local authorities so much that there is no civic life any more.

    But I do agree - the Tories will win big. Which is why she's going to the country this year.
    I can't resist, Mr. Pioneers. Do you fancy a small fun wager, say a bottle of something decent, that there will not be a GE this year?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,963


    Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us since the Second World War. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

    I thought the Prime Minister had ruled out an election in the near future but perhaps she will feel compelled to go to the country on a wave of eu-phoria (as it weren't).

    Cameron thought he could keep us in the EU - he couldn't. Nothing is certain in this life and the assumptions of increased majorities and the like based on a few polls (apparently reliable now May is Prime Minister) mean nothing.

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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    stodge said:

    Ah hubris, thy name is the Conservative Party.

    They thought they were unbeatable in 1992 - perhaps next year the BBC will re-run Election Night 1997 to mark the 20th Anniversary just to remind us all how right they were !!

    Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us since the Second World War. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    By cutting the budgets of local authorities so much that there is no civic life any more.

    But I do agree - the Tories will win big. Which is why she's going to the country this year.
    Bless you for taking the words of Sion Simon so seriously. Though I'm on board with the early election thinking too.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited July 2016

    Andrea Leadsom’s responsibilities for climate change have been thrown into confusion after a Government department suggested she had been stripped of her sole role in combating global warming.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/cabinet-office-publishes-plan-to-strip-andrea-leadsom-of-sole-climate-change-role_uk_578eb1f3e4b0b545e5cbe63c?edition=uk&utm_hp_ref=uk&

    Just part of the inevitable demotion of the quack idea of "climate change" to the dustbin of history beside " flat earth", "life on Mars" ," Arc of prosperity" and "electable Labour leader"
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,689

    Have they no sense of honour or shame?
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/755791495219863552

    Is this a prelude to an honour killing or is that too unPC?
    So they can go through the whole jolly cycle all over again.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Interesting chap on Jeremy Vine at lunch time. Not interested in politics, used to vote labour before losing interest, but pro-Corbyn and absolutely not worried by the idea that Corbyn can't win seats, because look at UKIP: they only have one MP but they still won the referendum. So you obviously don't need MPs.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,963
    Jason said:

    <
    After the 1992 election, I doubt very much many Tory MPs thought they were 'unbeatable'. Mr Blair quickly destroyed any notion of 'hubris', even if any existed. As for now, and not then, what party in power would not delight in an opposition destroying itself?

    I don't know your age, Jason, but I can assure you in that summer of 1992, before Black Wednesday, the Conservatives did think they were electorally unbeatable. They had won a fourth victory and a fourth term in spite of defenestrating Thatcher and in the teeth of an economic recession (remember negative equity anyone ?).

    Major had a larger majority than Cameron does now and having polled more votes than any Party before or since, the Conservatives believed they could see off John Smith or any other Labour leader.

    That was before Black Wednesday and Cameron's walk-on part after which it all got very "interesting" - VAT on fuel, remember that ?

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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    felix said:

    chestnut said:

    Pensioners:

    Tory 58 Labour 15 UKIP 13

    Old folk - the children of Beveridge - have written Labour off.

    And the Tories have been throwing money at them for six years :-)

    They know their client vote.
    I know of no pensioner who is more concerned for themselves than they are for their offspring. You may wish to consider the idea that pensioners maybe more willing to vote Conservative has bugger all to do with having "money thrown at them" but something to do with people who have seen life making a mature judgement about which party is likely to produce the best life chances for their children and, especially, grandchildren.
    Lol. Take your point but you are conveniently forgetting the howls of protest if there is even the hint of a suggestion that pensioners take their share of the cuts. And I speak as one.
    I do forget the howls of protest, Mr Felix, mainly because aside from on here I have not actually heard them, at least not for a long time (brown's 75p increase I think was the last time). I do however hear my contemporaries saying how daft it is that they are still given winter fuel allowance and bus passes when they do not need them.


    Ah, how quickly the howls of protest regarding George Osborne's 'granny tax' are forgotten.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Have they no sense of honour or shame?
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/755791495219863552

    Jolly decent of them. Not that we are short of betting markets at the moment, but a continual supply of markets on defenestrations and Labour leadership contests would be welcome nonetheless.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Die Welt are liking Frau May. Still gagging to take a pop at Boris. His journalism is going to be an albatross around his neck for a while.

    http://www.dw.com/en/tough-talking-may-makes-confident-pmqs-debut/a-19414579
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,294

    Have they no sense of honour or shame?
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/755791495219863552

    How does that make any kind of sense? If they had no confidence in his leadership before how can they have confidence in him just because he wins another mandate? He already had one.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926

    Have they no sense of honour or shame?
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/755791495219863552

    Jolly decent of them. Not that we are short of betting markets at the moment, but a continual supply of markets on defenestrations and Labour leadership contests would be welcome nonetheless.
    This is a golden age for political betting.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I've been in the Labour Party signup queue since 16:50 (research only!) and am approaching 40% on the progress bar to be allowed to register [you get 10 minutes, even after 5pm, as long as you were in the queue]. So those clicking on at 16:58 will probably have to wait at least an hour.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    stodge said:

    Ah hubris, thy name is the Conservative Party.

    They thought they were unbeatable in 1992 - perhaps next year the BBC will re-run Election Night 1997 to mark the 20th Anniversary just to remind us all how right they were !!

    Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us since the Second World War. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    I thought the FTPA meant that won't happen now?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,926
    edited July 2016
    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    kle4 said:

    Have they no sense of honour or shame?
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/755791495219863552

    How does that make any kind of sense? If they had no confidence in his leadership before how can they have confidence in him just because he wins another mandate? He already had one.
    It's the we respect the members, and we'll try and make it work, and hope Corbyn eventually screws up badly so he can be toppled.

    I do think we'll get a peace deal in 2017 after a round of gubbings in the locals.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    stodge said:

    Ah hubris, thy name is the Conservative Party.

    They thought they were unbeatable in 1992 - perhaps next year the BBC will re-run Election Night 1997 to mark the 20th Anniversary just to remind us all how right they were !!

    Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us since the Second World War. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    By cutting the budgets of local authorities so much that there is no civic life any more.

    But I do agree - the Tories will win big. Which is why she's going to the country this year.
    May will want to hold the Tory Conference and Parliament does not reassemble until the following week (I think!).Even if Labour played ball re- an immediate dissolution there would be no election before late November. More likely Labour would seek to frustrate May if polls are not encouraging - so putting off the election until December. Unlikely she will go back on her word I think.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,641
    kle4 said:

    Have they no sense of honour or shame?
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/755791495219863552

    How does that make any kind of sense? If they had no confidence in his leadership before how can they have confidence in him just because he wins another mandate? He already had one.
    Cos the membership said he ain't going nowhere.

    Analogously to Jezza himself they will presumably try to make some kind of difference although with no support from their boss.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    A nice war chest if May calls an early election.
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    Have they no sense of honour or shame?
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/755791495219863552

    Jolly decent of them. Not that we are short of betting markets at the moment, but a continual supply of markets on defenestrations and Labour leadership contests would be welcome nonetheless.
    Surely the very first attempted de-selection of a Labour MP will prove to be the straw which breaks the Camel's back, resulting in mass resignations from the party and the establishment of an alternative left of centre party in the HoC, plus possible legal disputes surrounding the division of Labour's assets ..... Oh wait!
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited July 2016

    I've been in the Labour Party signup queue since 16:50 (research only!) and am approaching 40% on the progress bar to be allowed to register [you get 10 minutes, even after 5pm, as long as you were in the queue]. So those clicking on at 16:58 will probably have to wait at least an hour.

    Research? - Ah, the Pete Townshend defence..! :)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    Does anyone want to explain to him how governments are formed?

    https://twitter.com/Harryslaststand/status/755792899074207745
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    Andrea Leadsom’s responsibilities for climate change have been thrown into confusion after a Government department suggested she had been stripped of her sole role in combating global warming.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/cabinet-office-publishes-plan-to-strip-andrea-leadsom-of-sole-climate-change-role_uk_578eb1f3e4b0b545e5cbe63c?edition=uk&utm_hp_ref=uk&amp;

    I certainly hope that is the case. Greg Clark, whose department would take over full responsibility for climate change policy, seems to have a pretty sound understanding of the issues, whereas Andrea Leadsom seems to lack both interest and knowledge in the area.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,919
    Apparently universities are raising their fees again - to £9,250 pa from September 2017, with further raises inline or above inflation in the future.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Chameleon said:

    Apparently universities are raising their fees again - to £9,250 pa from September 2017, with further raises inline or above inflation in the future.

    The bill that would allow them to do so has not yet been passed.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,926
    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    A nice war chest if May calls an early election.
    If Corbyn wins they should have an annual leadership challenge purely as a fundraiser.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    JonathanD said:

    felix said:

    chestnut said:

    Pensioners:

    Tory 58 Labour 15 UKIP 13

    Old folk - the children of Beveridge - have written Labour off.

    And the Tories have been throwing money at them for six years :-)

    They know their client vote.
    I know of no pensioner who is more concerned for themselves than they are for their offspring. You may wish to consider the idea that pensioners maybe more willing to vote Conservative has bugger all to do with having "money thrown at them" but something to do with people who have seen life making a mature judgement about which party is likely to produce the best life chances for their children and, especially, grandchildren.
    Lol. Take your point but you are conveniently forgetting the howls of protest if there is even the hint of a suggestion that pensioners take their share of the cuts. And I speak as one.
    I do forget the howls of protest, Mr Felix, mainly because aside from on here I have not actually heard them, at least not for a long time (brown's 75p increase I think was the last time). I do however hear my contemporaries saying how daft it is that they are still given winter fuel allowance and bus passes when they do not need them.


    Ah, how quickly the howls of protest regarding George Osborne's 'granny tax' are forgotten.
    Do you actually want to read what I said?
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,903
    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    Election war chest. Time to get that turd polishing qualification you always promised yourself and earn your share of the Labour party's cash.

    Either that or it will cover at least some of the legal fees set aside for contesting the outcome.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,919
    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    A nice war chest if May calls an early election.
    It doesn't matter whether you have £1 or £1,000,000 to sell rubbish, because at the end of the day, everyone will see that it is still rubbish.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    stodge said:

    Jason said:

    <
    After the 1992 election, I doubt very much many Tory MPs thought they were 'unbeatable'. Mr Blair quickly destroyed any notion of 'hubris', even if any existed. As for now, and not then, what party in power would not delight in an opposition destroying itself?

    I don't know your age, Jason, but I can assure you in that summer of 1992, before Black Wednesday, the Conservatives did think they were electorally unbeatable. They had won a fourth victory and a fourth term in spite of defenestrating Thatcher and in the teeth of an economic recession (remember negative equity anyone ?).

    Major had a larger majority than Cameron does now and having polled more votes than any Party before or since, the Conservatives believed they could see off John Smith or any other Labour leader.

    That was before Black Wednesday and Cameron's walk-on part after which it all got very "interesting" - VAT on fuel, remember that ?

    OK, you can have the four months between May and September of 1992 where you believe the Tories thought they were 'unbeatable', and I'll have the period after that right up until 1997 when no right minded person in the whole of the UK thought the Tories could beat Mr Blair.

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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Chameleon said:

    Apparently universities are raising their fees again - to £9,250 pa from September 2017, with further raises inline or above inflation in the future.

    On current inflation trends, we are looking at 2019 for crossover: when it costs more to be a registered supporter of Labour than to attend university.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,919

    Chameleon said:

    Apparently universities are raising their fees again - to £9,250 pa from September 2017, with further raises inline or above inflation in the future.

    The bill that would allow them to do so has not yet been passed.
    Yep, but that's not stopping them.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-36845106
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,339
    Betfair: Will there be a GE in 2016?

    Yes 7.6
    No 1.13

    Anything is possible - we've seen plenty of surprises recently - but on the face of it a 2016 GE isn't looking likely.

    And if Theresa doesn't go for one in her first 6 months then going soon after that seems even less likely - given initial bounce will be fading and we'll then be right in the middle of triggering Article 50 and the resulting negotiations.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    stodge said:

    Ah hubris, thy name is the Conservative Party.

    They thought they were unbeatable in 1992 - perhaps next year the BBC will re-run Election Night 1997 to mark the 20th Anniversary just to remind us all how right they were !!

    Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us since the Second World War. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Conservative government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
    By cutting the budgets of local authorities so much that there is no civic life any more.

    But I do agree - the Tories will win big. Which is why she's going to the country this year.
    You're clearly more than clever enough to know what was going to happen if Leave won but you voted for it anyway. So it's lacking in Christian Charity but I'd rather blame you than the Tories at the moment.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,926
    Jason said:

    stodge said:

    Jason said:

    <
    After the 1992 election, I doubt very much many Tory MPs thought they were 'unbeatable'. Mr Blair quickly destroyed any notion of 'hubris', even if any existed. As for now, and not then, what party in power would not delight in an opposition destroying itself?

    I don't know your age, Jason, but I can assure you in that summer of 1992, before Black Wednesday, the Conservatives did think they were electorally unbeatable. They had won a fourth victory and a fourth term in spite of defenestrating Thatcher and in the teeth of an economic recession (remember negative equity anyone ?).

    Major had a larger majority than Cameron does now and having polled more votes than any Party before or since, the Conservatives believed they could see off John Smith or any other Labour leader.

    That was before Black Wednesday and Cameron's walk-on part after which it all got very "interesting" - VAT on fuel, remember that ?

    OK, you can have the four months between May and September of 1992 where you believe the Tories thought they were 'unbeatable', and I'll have the period after that right up until 1997 when no right minded person in the whole of the UK thought the Tories could beat Mr Blair.

    Blair became leader in 1994.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    A nice war chest if May calls an early election.
    Er that would total up a bit under £4m, less the costs of administration. Call it three-million quid available for the campaign. Nice, but not enough to make a differnece.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,060

    Chameleon said:

    Apparently universities are raising their fees again - to £9,250 pa from September 2017, with further raises inline or above inflation in the future.

    The bill that would allow them to do so has not yet been passed.
    Racing cert :p
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,001
    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    A nice war chest if May calls an early election.

    With Jezza leading the way Labour will successfully and triumphantly secure close to 150 seats.

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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited July 2016

    Labour supporters have cooled on Corbyn, Guardian survey finds

    Survey finds enthusiasm waning for Labour party leader but no evidence of support for any other candidate

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/20/labour-supporters-have-cooled-on-corbyn-guardian-survey-finds?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I must confess to some confusion about the nomenclature of Labour categories. I want to say "supporters" but aren't they (historically) people off the street who paid £3 for a vote in last year's leadership election? Looking at the clock, it also now seems to apply historically to people off the street who've paid £25 to vote in this year's leadership election. If Labour wanted to reassure its supporters that this "cash for votes" (which used to work the other way round) is not just a not so cheap trick to separate the gullible from their cash, it could sell an annual season ticket as a hedge against overly frequent future competitions.

    Have I got that right? Are not people that vote Labour supporters? I'm sure that there are those on here who will happily educate me as to what they're called.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    A nice war chest if May calls an early election.
    Labour doesn't need a war chest, they have an awesome ground game
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Chameleon said:

    Apparently universities are raising their fees again - to £9,250 pa from September 2017, with further raises inline or above inflation in the future.

    The bill that would allow them to do so has not yet been passed.
    But with little opposition, it is but a formality.

    Anyone have a feeling that even if May calls an early election and the Tories win a landslide the cult will say he wasn't given enough time and that the great leader should stay on.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,001
    An early election actually suits the PLP in a funny way as it will mean there will not be time for deselections before it takes place. A lot of MPs in safe seats who would have been thrown out will get five more years.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    An early election actually suits the PLP in a funny way as it will mean there will not be time for deselections before it takes place. A lot of MPs in safe seats who would have been thrown out will get five more years.

    I asked NP about that and he said there would still be time for selection panels; though in extremis the NEC could decide.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,562

    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    A nice war chest if May calls an early election.
    Labour doesn't need a war chest, they have an awesome ground game
    And a big pink bus for the ladies
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    nunu said:

    Chameleon said:

    Apparently universities are raising their fees again - to £9,250 pa from September 2017, with further raises inline or above inflation in the future.

    The bill that would allow them to do so has not yet been passed.
    But with little opposition, it is but a formality.

    Anyone have a feeling that even if May calls an early election and the Tories win a landslide the cult will say he wasn't given enough time and that the great leader should stay on.
    The cult will say he wasn't given enough support, and blame the moderates.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,903
    Pulpstar said:

    Chameleon said:

    Apparently universities are raising their fees again - to £9,250 pa from September 2017, with further raises inline or above inflation in the future.

    The bill that would allow them to do so has not yet been passed.
    Racing cert :p
    Ye gads! They are already using the fees to piss away money on boutique buildings in an inflationary boom, sometimes without even any clue as to what the building is going to be used for (Manchester University - I name you). I guess this will be yet more extra insulation against the near immediate loss of EU funding they are facing even pre-A50.

    Perhaps Brexit was the reason that capping fees lower was 'economically illiterate', as I can't think of any other reason.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    A nice war chest if May calls an early election.
    Labour doesn't need a war chest, they have an awesome ground game
    Lol. They won it for Remain as well.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    Weird to think Labour have signed more members in the last few days than the Tories have in their entirety
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,431

    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    A nice war chest if May calls an early election.
    Labour doesn't need a war chest, they have an awesome ground game
    GG WP, as I'm told they say.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    I do miss IOS.

    That was hubris writ large
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,562

    Weird to think Labour have signed more members in the last few days than the Tories have in their entirety

    Still won't win them the election though
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    ToryJim said:

    Weird to think Labour have signed more members in the last few days than the Tories have in their entirety

    Still won't win them the election though
    Indeed, I'm told size isn't important, it's what you do with it that counts.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    150,000 supporter at £25 a pop is a shit load of money.

    A nice war chest if May calls an early election.
    Labour doesn't need a war chest, they have an awesome ground game
    GG WP, as I'm told they say.
    Ground Game Will Perish?
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Merkel & May on BBC News. Merkel selfishly talking in German :).
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    ToryJim said:

    Weird to think Labour have signed more members in the last few days than the Tories have in their entirety

    Still won't win them the election though
    Indeed, I'm told size isn't important, it's what you do with it that counts.
    Not that u have to worry about such things......
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    I do miss IOS.

    That was hubris writ large

    Ave it was more right than hubiristic in GE 2015 oddly...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    edited July 2016
    Lincoln Red Imps are 45/1 to beat Celtic tonight.

    Just saying

    Edit 70s on Betfair, had a nibble
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    John_M said:

    Merkel & May on BBC News. Merkel selfishly talking in German :).

    Having grown up in the East, her English is probably not that brilliant.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    nunu said:

    I do miss IOS.

    That was hubris writ large

    Ave it was more right than hubiristic in GE 2015 oddly...
    Ave it called a Tory majority and Leave win.
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    ToryJim said:

    Weird to think Labour have signed more members in the last few days than the Tories have in their entirety

    Still won't win them the election though
    Indeed, I'm told size isn't important, it's what you do with it that counts.
    Do you get told that a lot? If so....
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    edited July 2016

    I do miss IOS.

    That was hubris writ large

    Has he come back since May? And that other one, the toothpaste guy.
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    DaveDaveDaveDave Posts: 76
    Tories should aspire to a GE. majority wafer thin and a lot changes in a week. Crack on.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,926
    Animal_pb said:

    ToryJim said:

    Weird to think Labour have signed more members in the last few days than the Tories have in their entirety

    Still won't win them the election though
    Indeed, I'm told size isn't important, it's what you do with it that counts.
    Do you get told that a lot? If so....
    Nope, it is what I've heard from friends.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    John_M said:

    Merkel & May on BBC News. Merkel selfishly talking in German :).

    Having grown up in the East, her English is probably not that brilliant.
    Russian was compulsory in the East, until the wall came down. Can’t expect Frau Merkle to speak English as well, she’s not a rocket scientist…
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited July 2016
    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    I do miss IOS.

    That was hubris writ large

    Ave it was more right than hubiristic in GE 2015 oddly...
    Ave it called a Tory majority and Leave win.
    Ave it. The new gold standard.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,903
    John_M said:

    Hubris. Negotiating our way out of a 43-year old relationship in a slowing global economy while borrowing £75 billion p.a. (with more to come) and an 83% debt/GDP ratio is hardly the stuff of political dreams. May needs to stay gritty, realistic and humble (would also be grateful if Davis could stfu as well).

    PS @David_Evershed Thanks for the link earlier. Very interesting. I am, apparently, a Liberal, if not an LD.
    The government are in full spin mode on Brexit. Partly that covers up the absence of planning or any joined up thinking on the subject. What they are not doing is preparing the public for any hardship or stuff that might happen. I can't decide whether the spin will carry them through or whether the public will realise they have been sold a pup. Perhaps more worrying is if they actually believe their own spin. I think David Davis does believe the nonsense he spouts.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,042
    DaveDave said:

    Tories should aspire to a GE. majority wafer thin and a lot changes in a week. Crack on.

    Would be rude to do one while Labour are in the middle of a leadership election :p
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MaxPB said:

    I do miss IOS.

    That was hubris writ large

    Has he come back since May? And that other one, the toothpaste guy.
    No he vanished, just like Ash (toothpaste guy).
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    RobD said:

    DaveDave said:

    Tories should aspire to a GE. majority wafer thin and a lot changes in a week. Crack on.

    Would be rude to do one while Labour are in the middle of a leadership election :p
    I think pushing the idea of an early election may help one of the anti-Corbyn lot get in which is why the idea is on the back burner. Labour may come to their senses if they were facing a November election. With the election all the way out in 2020 Labour members don't need to worry about winning in the near term.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,001
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    DaveDave said:

    Tories should aspire to a GE. majority wafer thin and a lot changes in a week. Crack on.

    Would be rude to do one while Labour are in the middle of a leadership election :p
    I think pushing the idea of an early election may help one of the anti-Corbyn lot get in which is why the idea is on the back burner. Labour may come to their senses if they were facing a November election. With the election all the way out in 2020 Labour members don't need to worry about winning in the near term.

    Most of them really aren't bothered, believe me.

This discussion has been closed.