May hurting UKIP more than Labour is the simple takeaway.
UKIP unchanged since the general election though however that would be the biggest Tory and Labour gap since the 1987 general election, so maybe May is the new Thatcher and whether Labour pick Corbyn or Smith it does not make a real difference, they are just choosing between Foot and Kinnock!
Interesting that Mrs. May's folder of supposedly readily accessible information, which no PM ever seems to actually refer to, appeared to be a tiny fraction the thickness of the one used by her predecessor. Might I correct her on one all too commonly mispronounced word ...... children are brought up not bought up. A horrid mistake she uttered twice within a few seconds ..... aargh!
Yes, she won today, but was far too deliberately Thatcherite for my liking.
Interesting that Mrs. May's folder of supposedly readily accessible information, which no PM ever seems to actually refer to, appeared to be a tiny fraction the thickness of the one used by her predecessor. Might I correct her on one all too commonly mispronounced word ...... children are brought up not bought up. A horrid mistake she uttered twice within a few seconds ..... aargh!
Yes, she won today, but was far too deliberately Thatcherite for my liking.
Me too.
And Tories only buy children for cooking.
Don't be silly. Do you think chimneys clean themselves?
Kipppers flocking back to the Tories. Labour in freefall. Despairing lefty Remainians moving to the Lib Dems.
Not so sure about that for the LDs - it's been a high mark for them for awhile, but they have been as high as 9 in the past year. And Kipper support will be very ephemeral.
Interesting that Mrs. May's folder of supposedly readily accessible information, which no PM ever seems to actually refer to, appeared to be a tiny fraction the thickness of the one used by her predecessor. Might I correct her on one all too commonly mispronounced word ...... children are brought up not bought up. A horrid mistake she uttered twice within a few seconds ..... aargh!
Yes, she won today, but was far too deliberately Thatcherite for my liking.
Two Taxi Tim Farron must be encouraged by the LibDems' 9% level of support in this latest poll .... surely just about their highest score since last year's G.E.
Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
Owen Smith doesn't want Brexit. That's going to go down well in Northern areas.
By the time there is another GE it won't really matter, if he can manage to get to be leader in the meantime. Unless there is a GE prior to declaring article 50, which doesn't seem on the cards, it will be at the least well advanced before another GE, at which point Smith's wish to prevent it won't necessarily be an issue - he can make a play for the 48% now, say he would have prevented it if he had the opportunity, but like most people once we are out, he's probably not going to campaign on rejoining, which is a whole other kettle of fish.
Two Taxi Tim Farron must be encouraged by the LibDems 9% level of support in this latest poll .... surely just about their highest score since last year's G.E.
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.
Kipppers flocking back to the Tories. Labour in freefall. Despairing lefty Remainians moving to the Lib Dems.
Not so sure about that for the LDs - it's been a high mark for them for awhile, but they have been as high as 9 in the past year. And Kipper support will be very ephemeral.
Changes from April?? Have they selected Labour's most favourable poll from the last 12 months for comparison, then? Surely that was not the last YouGov GE VI poll.
Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
Yup.
I totally agree also - generally speaking, hectoring women are not vote winners.
Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
You can only close mines and steelworks once. I'm sure lazy people will peddle the Thatcher idea, but it really doesn't suit the times. We're three times as wealthy as we were in the late 70s.
If May doesn't go after the boomers, I shall be incredibly disappointed.
How big a shift must that be in London and Scotland?! Subsample heaven indeed for some.
Yup. But if ALL the subsamples are pointing the same way, there's a trend.
If it is maintained, yes possibly. Frankly I'm susprised the gap with Lab is not higher in the South, although apparently Corbyn is actually more popular among the county Lab members.
I signed up to the Saving Labour site and had done the psychological contortions needed to pay £3 to save fully functioning democracy in the UK but... It was the coup instigators who were told hiked the fee to £25 and retroactively disenfranchised new full members. Apart from reminding me of everything that's kept me out of the Labour Party all my life where is the strategy ? Why attempt to mobilise centrists to join AND make it bloody difficult at the same time ? I'll keep my £25 and wait for SDP2 if that's their attitude.
Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
At the moment May is Merkel in personality, Thatcher in dominance and a combination of the two in policy
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.
That Scottish sub sample could give the Conservatives 15-20. Yeah I don't believe it either. Although I would expect them to pick up seats in Scotland at the moment but 2-3 max.
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen. .
The Tories came within a few hundred votes of getting a second seat in Scotland in 2015, which would have been hilarious.
Kipppers flocking back to the Tories. Labour in freefall. Despairing lefty Remainians moving to the Lib Dems.
Not so sure about that for the LDs - it's been a high mark for them for awhile, but they have been as high as 9 in the past year. And Kipper support will be very ephemeral.
Changes from April?? Have they selected Labour's most favourable poll from the last 12 months for comparison, then? Surely that was not the last YouGov GE VI poll.
It would be quite incredible if UKIP VI didn't drop after the vote to Leave the EU, the resignation of Farage and the destruction of the Cameroons. Their goal has been achieved, I would think they have a lot less to be fired up about
It seems Yougovs previous polls were wildly out of kilter with other firms re Con share, have they changed something?
OT interesting to hear the head woman of a Republicans UK on R4 just now saying she will be backing Gary Johnson and thinks he might have a chance. I see his odds on Betfair are coming in rapidly (400 on Sunday now 270). If this trend gathers pace - particularly if he makes the debates, which I gather is a possibility - then this bet must still represent good value?
Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
Yup.
I totally agree also - generally speaking, hectoring women are not vote winners.
One of them did pretty well in 1979, 1983 and 1987 though.
I was a Labour GE2015 voter, but they didn't ask ME
With a 30% headline Labour figure more or less matching GE2015, suggests Labour have also pulled in some support from elsewhere. Greens, non-voters, UKIP?
Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
yes but her message is different, an economy for everyone not the privliged few.
Owen Smith doesn't want Brexit. That's going to go down well in Northern areas.
That rather depends on the line now taken by Corbyn ..... will he (sensibly) declare that the people have now spoken and we must go with the majority decision?
Kipppers flocking back to the Tories. Labour in freefall. Despairing lefty Remainians moving to the Lib Dems.
Perhaps the last century was just an anomaly and by 2021 it'll be Tories vs Liberals/Whigs once more!
We can but hope
That would be logical since there is clear political space between the liberal and conservative view on social issues, and despite its more liberal membership (or at least the middle class bit of it) labour relies on wwc and Muslim votes, neither groups that are known for being particularly liberal, and hence is always going to be a poor champion for liberal social issues.
On the economy no-one seems to have a clue anyway.
Two Taxi Tim Farron must be encouraged by the LibDems 9% level of support in this latest poll .... surely just about their highest score since last year's G.E.
I think the Lib Dems have an opportunity, but we don't know if it will be realised after them being invisible for so long. Their case goes something like this:
A lot of people think the Coalition government worked much better than the one that followed. People who voted Remain will particularly think that because of the Brexit disaster (from their POV), but not just Remainers. We can generalise this goodwill to say Lib Dems bring a moderate and competent influence to politics across the board. So it's a just a step for people who might otherwise vote Conservative or Labour to decide we are worth voting for and to switch their votes to us.
Well done to all those Tory MPs and the black ops on Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom would have been in tears at PMQs
Your personal nastiness to Andrea Leadsom has been one of the most unedifying features of this site over recent weeks. I read some of your comments whilst on holiday and I was, frankly, shocked.
Thankfully, Theresa May doesn't share your spite.
Well the behaviour of several site regulars over the last couple of months has been fairly unedifying.
Still, as they managed to call the referendum completely wrongly despite their smug self-satisfaction we can be cheerful.
I will never forget the squeals of delight every time Andrew Copper talked up the private polling for Remain.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.
It would be quite incredible if UKIP VI didn't drop after the vote to Leave the EU, the resignation of Farage and the destruction of the Cameroons. Their goal has been achieved, I would think they have a lot less to be fired up about
I've a lot of Kippers in my timeline and they're still red hot on immigration controls/ensuring Brexit is delivered. They're very suspicious sorts when it comes to Tories following through in deed as well as word.
Rudd's comment that there wouldn't be an immigration target now has got them going.
Well done to all those Tory MPs and the black ops on Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom would have been in tears at PMQs
Your personal nastiness to Andrea Leadsom has been one of the most unedifying features of this site over recent weeks. I read some of your comments whilst on holiday and I was, frankly, shocked.
Thankfully, Theresa May doesn't share your spite.
Well the behaviour of several site regulars over the last couple of months has been fairly unedifying.
Still, as they managed to call the referendum completely wrongly despite their smug self-satisfaction we can be cheerful.
I will never forget the squeals of delight every time Andrew Copper talked up the private polling for Remain.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.
The flagging of Betfair every time Leave drifted was handy, although it felt like an implicit troll rather than betting advice.
Well done to all those Tory MPs and the black ops on Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom would have been in tears at PMQs
Your personal nastiness to Andrea Leadsom has been one of the most unedifying features of this site over recent weeks. I read some of your comments whilst on holiday and I was, frankly, shocked.
Thankfully, Theresa May doesn't share your spite.
Well the behaviour of several site regulars over the last couple of months has been fairly unedifying.
Still, as they managed to call the referendum completely wrongly despite their smug self-satisfaction we can be cheerful.
I will never forget the squeals of delight every time Andrew Copper talked up the private polling for Remain.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.
I think the polling industry would be well advised never to credit his predictions again.
If you factor in the SNP at say 4.5% and PC at 0.5% that poll is pretty close to the 2015 result, with Labour a shade down and the LibDems a shade up. But no big shifts really.
It would be quite incredible if UKIP VI didn't drop after the vote to Leave the EU, the resignation of Farage and the destruction of the Cameroons. Their goal has been achieved, I would think they have a lot less to be fired up about
It seems Yougovs previous polls were wildly out of kilter with other firms re Con share, have they changed something?
You miss my point, and that being made by others, that the comparison used to create the figures was itself awfully out of line with both results and other polling at the time. It appears to have been wilfully chosen to create a narrative.
How much is real drop and how much is Yougov's bad methodology?
Well done to all those Tory MPs and the black ops on Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom would have been in tears at PMQs
Your personal nastiness to Andrea Leadsom has been one of the most unedifying features of this site over recent weeks. I read some of your comments whilst on holiday and I was, frankly, shocked.
Thankfully, Theresa May doesn't share your spite.
Well the behaviour of several site regulars over the last couple of months has been fairly unedifying.
Still, as they managed to call the referendum completely wrongly despite their smug self-satisfaction we can be cheerful.
I will never forget the squeals of delight every time Andrew Copper talked up the private polling for Remain.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.
The flagging of Betfair every time Leave drifted was handy, although it felt like an implicit troll rather than betting advice.
UKIP is obviously a party in transition at the moment, plenty of targets for the Woolfe.
What the polls seem to be saying is that Labour will lose heavily to the Tories in the marginals, while keeping most of the core vote seats. Terrible, terrible stuff. The one very small consolation is that UKIP have a hell of a lot of work to do before they are going to mount a serious challenge.
Owen Smith doesn't want Brexit. That's going to go down well in Northern areas.
That rather depends on the line now taken by Corbyn ..... will he (sensibly) declare that the people have now spoken and we must go with the majority decision?
"The majority have no right to do wrong!"
- Eamonn de Valera, in the wake of the June 1922 Irish Free State Election, when his Anti-Treaty wing of Sinn Fein lost to the Pro-Treaty faction and allies.
The last one looked like an outlier. But, there's nothing surprising about this. People on the Right who were pissed off with David Cameron's fake renegotiation have switched back to the Tories.
OT interesting to hear the head woman of a Republicans UK on R4 just now saying she will be backing Gary Johnson and thinks he might have a chance. I see his odds on Betfair are coming in rapidly (400 on Sunday now 270). If this trend gathers pace - particularly if he makes the debates, which I gather is a possibility - then this bet must still represent good value?
Zero value.
With the Electoal College he will get no votes. The only effect may be to peel off some of the nuttier Republicans and put Hillary in the White House.
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.
LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchman
Well done to all those Tory MPs and the black ops on Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom would have been in tears at PMQs
Your personal nastiness to Andrea Leadsom has been one of the most unedifying features of this site over recent weeks. I read some of your comments whilst on holiday and I was, frankly, shocked.
Thankfully, Theresa May doesn't share your spite.
Well the behaviour of several site regulars over the last couple of months has been fairly unedifying.
Still, as they managed to call the referendum completely wrongly despite their smug self-satisfaction we can be cheerful.
I will never forget the squeals of delight every time Andrew Copper talked up the private polling for Remain.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.
I think the polling industry would be well advised never to credit his predictions again.
If he'd actually accepted what his polling was saying, he'd have been okay. But, he very much wanted a big win for Remain, so made assumptions that weren't well-founded.
Two Taxi Tim Farron must be encouraged by the LibDems 9% level of support in this latest poll .... surely just about their highest score since last year's G.E.
I think the Lib Dems have an opportunity, but we don't know if it will be realised after them being invisible for so long. Their case goes something like this:
A lot of people think the Coalition government worked much better than the one that followed. People who voted Remain will particularly think that because of the Brexit disaster (from their POV), but not just Remainers. We can generalise this goodwill to say Lib Dems bring a moderate and competent influence to politics across the board. So it's a just a step for people who might otherwise vote Conservative or Labour to decide we are worth voting for and to switch their votes to us.
One of the main problems for the LibDems is that they lost so many of their seats in the West Country, where the demographics seem likely to shift ever more in the Tories' favour over the coming years, in terms of relative wealth and age profile.
OT interesting to hear the head woman of a Republicans UK on R4 just now saying she will be backing Gary Johnson and thinks he might have a chance. I see his odds on Betfair are coming in rapidly (400 on Sunday now 270). If this trend gathers pace - particularly if he makes the debates, which I gather is a possibility - then this bet must still represent good value?
Zero value.
With the Electoal College he will get no votes. The only effect may be to peel off some of the nuttier Republicans and put Hillary in the White House.
He is on the ballot in every state. I have backed him at any rate as I'd rather not be in a Johnson sized hole when he gets included in the presidential debates. There is a value, albeit slight.
OT interesting to hear the head woman of a Republicans UK on R4 just now saying she will be backing Gary Johnson and thinks he might have a chance. I see his odds on Betfair are coming in rapidly (400 on Sunday now 270). If this trend gathers pace - particularly if he makes the debates, which I gather is a possibility - then this bet must still represent good value?
Zero value.
With the Electoal College he will get no votes. The only effect may be to peel off some of the nuttier Republicans and put Hillary in the White House.
The value, surely, is that if he did make the debates (and the republican lady thought his poll ratings were almost at the threshold) his odds would surely come in from 270/1 and therefore there is value in backing at 270. I thought there was value at 400 and my first bet is already in the green.
What the polls seem to be saying is that Labour will lose heavily to the Tories in the marginals, while keeping most of the core vote seats. Terrible, terrible stuff. The one very small consolation is that UKIP have a hell of a lot of work to do before they are going to mount a serious challenge.
Especially as it always used to be assumed that the more left wing MPs were in the safer seats, isolated from the swings of the electorate?
I signed up to the Saving Labour site and had done the psychological contortions needed to pay £3 to save fully functioning democracy in the UK but... It was the coup instigators who were told hiked the fee to £25 and retroactively disenfranchised new full members. Apart from reminding me of everything that's kept me out of the Labour Party all my life where is the strategy ? Why attempt to mobilise centrists to join AND make it bloody difficult at the same time ? I'll keep my £25 and wait for SDP2 if that's their attitude.
If I thought my £25 vote would make any difference to the end result it would be a worthwhile investment for the £500+ windfall I would get... As the electorate has been rigged in a way that I suspect makes things far more Corbynite than the NEC and PLP realise I'll keep my money...
Labour as party that aims for Parliament and power is dead... The sooner the PLP realise that and act upon it the more likely they are to survive the next election...
Corbyn attacking Matron for the falling proportion of younger people buying their houses between 1998 and 2016 ie two thirds government by his own party, and turning querulous when it was pointed out.
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
Holy Hell.
That's stunning if true.
What is that likely to mean, voting wise?
If Corbyn is on the ballot, he wins.
If next week's legal challenge suceeds then Labour is into even deeper legal problems and could be looking at lawsuits from people who have just paid £25, as well as Corbyn himself who was not required to collect any nominations.
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
Holy Hell.
That's stunning if true.
It's either a moment of surprise revolution, or incredible blindness - Labour membership has never been more popular in modern times, and either they really are more reflective of the wider public than we think, or might prove appealing to it more than we think, or it is a party making itself unelectable in a really extreme way by total choice.
Crumbs, when did a party ever shift 10 points either way between polls? Admittedly a gap since April and the April one looks a bit dodgy if the Tories were at 30% and UKIP 20%!
But blimey, this doesn't half look good for May - and she's hardly started yet!
Comments
And Tories only buy children for cooking.
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/755741928487084032?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.
If May doesn't go after the boomers, I shall be incredibly disappointed.
42% - that's nearly 4m 2015 voters - will not commit to Labour.
Corbyn loses Labour 4 million voters. The Lib Dem/UKIP offset is only about 600k.
Labour would poll 20-25% in an election if that were true.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7r7q7dltth/InternalResults_160720_VI.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berwickshire,_Roxburgh_and_Selkirk_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3fpd29osgc/YG trackers-Voting Intention-160428.pdf
And the change figures given are correct
It seems Yougovs previous polls were wildly out of kilter with other firms re Con share, have they changed something?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Tory 58 Labour 15 UKIP 13
Old folk - the children of Beveridge - have written Labour off.
Polls, eh!
On the economy no-one seems to have a clue anyway.
A lot of people think the Coalition government worked much better than the one that followed. People who voted Remain will particularly think that because of the Brexit disaster (from their POV), but not just Remainers. We can generalise this goodwill to say Lib Dems bring a moderate and competent influence to politics across the board. So it's a just a step for people who might otherwise vote Conservative or Labour to decide we are worth voting for and to switch their votes to us.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.
Rudd's comment that there wouldn't be an immigration target now has got them going.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.
How much is real drop and how much is Yougov's bad methodology?
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
- Eamonn de Valera, in the wake of the June 1922 Irish Free State Election, when his Anti-Treaty wing of Sinn Fein lost to the Pro-Treaty faction and allies.
With the Electoal College he will get no votes. The only effect may be to peel off some of the nuttier Republicans and put Hillary in the White House.
They know their client vote.
That's stunning if true.
Labour as party that aims for Parliament and power is dead... The sooner the PLP realise that and act upon it the more likely they are to survive the next election...
Corbyn attacking Matron for the falling proportion of younger people buying their houses between 1998 and 2016 ie two thirds government by his own party, and turning querulous when it was pointed out.
Dear God, that man is a gormless oaf.
If next week's legal challenge suceeds then Labour is into even deeper legal problems and could be looking at lawsuits from people who have just paid £25, as well as Corbyn himself who was not required to collect any nominations.
But blimey, this doesn't half look good for May - and she's hardly started yet!