politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef
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I've always thought he seems a bit of a fool full stop...MaxPB said:
Obama calls it for Erdogan while Kerry in Russia stays cool. Obama also supported Morsi in Egypt though, he seems to be a bit of a foreign policy fool.FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
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He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".FrancisUrquhart said:
Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.RobD said:
US calling it for Erdogan?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
Its a hedge.0 -
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Sign erdogan is winning this?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.0 -
snip0
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Well if there is a second referendum, I predict an uphill struggle for remainers.0
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Hang on, perhaps your letter worked because that's exactly the exemption which came in in April this year. I can't link to the gov site which consulted on this in jan and changed it from April. You may be fine from now on.Richard_Nabavi said:
Paying in to a scheme rather than opting-out would be absurdly burdensome in terms of the admin required.Scrapheap_as_was said:If you have to have a scheme for non directors who aren't in the ssas you directors could just join too pay the phased bare minimums and then carry on with the ssas regardless for main provision. The key though is you are untypical of the swathe of employers now staging and who mainly have shell stakeholders if they had need if anything at all. The tiny firms are ok too as I've defined them and Richard t shows.
Sure, tiny firms with one employee-director are fine. But not tiny firms (of which there are many, especially hi-tech start-ups) with two or three employee-directors. That was my simple point, which Baroness Altman didn't bother to respond to. So good riddance that she's gone.0 -
Trans # Urgent | News of the death of 17 policemen during the coup attack on the headquarters of the Special Forces in TurkeyMarcKlein said:ttps://twitter.com/JustBanter__/status/754090056294535168
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It says 'the'. Although it notably omits Erdogan's name. I still think that this is the US calling it for the Govt.Lowlander said:
He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".FrancisUrquhart said:
Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.RobD said:
US calling it for Erdogan?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
Its a hedge.
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In what sense was the government not democratic though? I thought elections in Turkey were OK,despite journalist intimidation? The people, as ever, are the problem.Lowlander said:
He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".FrancisUrquhart said:
Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.RobD said:
US calling it for Erdogan?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
Its a hedge.0 -
Who are the Russians calling it for?Chameleon said:
It says 'the'. Although it notably omits Erdogan's name. I still think that this is the US calling it for the Govt.Lowlander said:
He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".FrancisUrquhart said:
Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.RobD said:
US calling it for Erdogan?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
Its a hedge.0 -
Ah, if so I'll forgive her! I'll look it up tomorrow, thanks. Now it's bed time - g'night all.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Hang on, perhaps your letter worked because that's exactly the exemption which came in in April this year. I can't link to the gov site which consulted on this in jan and changed it from April. You may be fine from now on.0 -
My ongoing assessment of changing headlined, now the bbchas it as as army group stages coup attempt. Not even the glory of takes power in quotes at least.0
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No. There is no way that any army officer would be doing this if they thought it put NATO membership at risk.williamglenn said:Will the UK's membership of the EU outlast Turkey's membership of NATO?
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Do a Google for 'April 2016 director changes for auto enrolment ', you'll see its a lot simpler for you now.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Hang on, perhaps your letter worked because that's exactly the exemption which came in in April this year. I can't link to the gov site which consulted on this in jan and changed it from April. You may be fine from now on.Richard_Nabavi said:
Paying in to a scheme rather than opting-out would be absurdly burdensome in terms of the admin required.Scrapheap_as_was said:If you have to have a scheme for non directors who aren't in the ssas you directors could just join too pay the phased bare minimums and then carry on with the ssas regardless for main provision. The key though is you are untypical of the swathe of employers now staging and who mainly have shell stakeholders if they had need if anything at all. The tiny firms are ok too as I've defined them and Richard t shows.
Sure, tiny firms with one employee-director are fine. But not tiny firms (of which there are many, especially hi-tech start-ups) with two or three employee-directors. That was my simple point, which Baroness Altman didn't bother to respond to. So good riddance that she's gone.0 -
They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.kle4 said:
Sign erdogan is winning this?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.0 -
What time did it start over there, it must have been after midnight?MaxPB said:
They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.kle4 said:
Sign erdogan is winning this?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.0 -
Whatever happens the coup is proof that democracy and Islam are not happy bedfellows.0
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About midnight I think. Last time it happened at 3am when the nation was asleep.RobD said:
What time did it start over there, it must have been after midnight?MaxPB said:
They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.kle4 said:
Sign erdogan is winning this?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.0 -
Fox just repeated it - they said "an" not "the".Chameleon said:
It says 'the'. Although it notably omits Erdogan's name. I still think that this is the US calling it for the Govt.Lowlander said:
He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".FrancisUrquhart said:
Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.RobD said:
US calling it for Erdogan?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
Its a hedge.0 -
Why? The lie that Turkey is about to join is now sunk.taffys said:Well if there is a second referendum, I predict an uphill struggle for remainers.
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Well that's just poor grammar!Lowlander said:
Fox just repeated it - they said "an" not "the".Chameleon said:
It says 'the'. Although it notably omits Erdogan's name. I still think that this is the US calling it for the Govt.Lowlander said:
He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".FrancisUrquhart said:
Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.RobD said:
US calling it for Erdogan?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
Its a hedge.
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If it hasn't been mentioned before then Chris Bryant's Twitter is the place to be. What a complete bellend!0
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So... has tim changed his twitter name now???
Iht rocks...0 -
The retweets of the public reaction to his nonsense is a particular highlight.Brom said:If it hasn't been mentioned before then Chris Bryant's Twitter is the place to be. What a complete bellend!
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But if the army fails?david_herdson said:
No. There is no way that any army officer would be doing this if they thought it put NATO membership at risk.williamglenn said:Will the UK's membership of the EU outlast Turkey's membership of NATO?
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Clearly I don't know anything more about it than anyone else but the general supposedly leading the coup was court martialled earlier this year. So it could be a disgruntled faction within the army?0
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Sky - US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that he emphasised "absolute support for Turkey's democratically elected, civilian government and democratic institutions" in a phone call with Turkey's Foreign Minister.
If the Obama quote could be read two ways, Kerry quote and who he was saying it to sounds very clear to me.0 -
Hahahaha.williamglenn said:0 -
This is the only Tweet Matt Drudge has ever made (since joining twitter 5 years ago).
https://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/7540941222400614410 -
I'd assumed the days of army coups In turkey were past, as I think swathes of senior officers had been similarly purged in the last decade, but that's just a vague recollection.FF43 said:Clearly I don't know anything more about it than anyone else but the general supposedly leading the coup was court martialled earlier this year. So it could be a disgruntled faction within the army?
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An attempted coup, people on the streets, yet a guy is sleeping in Taksim Square.
Mohammed C Nesbitt.0 -
Close to over then and getting in publicly before that's obvious to all.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky - US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that he emphasised "absolute support for Turkey's democratically elected, civilian government and democratic institutions" in a phone call with Turkey's Foreign Minister.
If the Obama quote could be read two ways, Kerry quote and who he was saying it to sounds very clear to me.
Good night.
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Looks like Erdogan is going to hold on then. Shame. I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to amend Turkey's constitution to remove the military protection for secularism if he does win. Hopefully the people see him for what he is and kick him out, but he has absolute control over the media and locks up dissidents so it isn't going to be easy. I think an assassination would probably have worked better.FrancisUrquhart said:US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that he emphasised "absolute support for Turkey's democratically elected, civilian government and democratic institutions" in a phone call with Turkey's Foreign Minister.
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The democratic order in Turkey must be respected and all must be done to protect lives, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman0 -
Deary me...what has happened to quality of the BBC...what do they teach them at that college of journalism...from their live feed.
"We're getting images of some injuries among pro-coup protesters on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul."
So are they pro coup and protesting, or are they protesting about those who are pro coup.0 -
Can I suggest that OGH stops writing articles for a while? These days "Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet" would probably do with all the weirdness the world is throwing up.
Night all.0 -
NATO chief has called for "full respect" for Turkey's democratic institutions, constitution.0
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FrancisUrquhart said:
Deary me...what has happened to quality of the BBC...what do they teach them at that college of journalism...from their live feed.
"We're getting images of some injuries among pro-coup protesters on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul."
So are they pro coup and protesting, or are they protesting about those who are pro coup.
Seems fairly obviously the first, not really that ambiguous. I was far more annoyed by the BBC report that Erdogan was on "vacation"...FrancisUrquhart said:Deary me...what has happened to quality of the BBC...what do they teach them at that college of journalism...from their live feed.
"We're getting images of some injuries among pro-coup protesters on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul."
So are they pro coup and protesting, or are they protesting about those who are pro coup.0 -
Why would the military shot those supporting the coup? And also, so far all the rest of the coverage has only shown anti-coup public on the streets....so its it the first?not_on_fire said:FrancisUrquhart said:Deary me...what has happened to quality of the BBC...what do they teach them at that college of journalism...from their live feed.
"We're getting images of some injuries among pro-coup protesters on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul."
So are they pro coup and protesting, or are they protesting about those who are pro coup.
Seems fairly obviously the first, not really that ambiguous. I was far more annoyed by the BBC report that Erdogan was on "vacation"...FrancisUrquhart said:Deary me...what has happened to quality of the BBC...what do they teach them at that college of journalism...from their live feed.
"We're getting images of some injuries among pro-coup protesters on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul."
So are they pro coup and protesting, or are they protesting about those who are pro coup.
If they are pro-coup, they are surely coup supporters....if they are anti-coup they are protesters.0 -
That was never taken seriously by most Britons they are not stupid. But if u want a second ref be my guest, although Corbyn might just come out for Leave this time just to piss off the PLP even more. Lol.not_on_fire said:
Why? The lie that Turkey is about to join is now sunk.taffys said:Well if there is a second referendum, I predict an uphill struggle for remainers.
Seriously tho asking the electorate again will lead to a resounding defeat for Remain. I would bet big on it.0 -
Istanbul's airport hopes to resume international departures soon, according to the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation.0
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Lol. They are fucking useless as plotters then.MaxPB said:
About midnight I think. Last time it happened at 3am when the nation was asleep.RobD said:
What time did it start over there, it must have been after midnight?MaxPB said:
They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.kle4 said:
Sign erdogan is winning this?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.0 -
They have been watching the Labour leadership attempted coup and thought it was a blueprint on how to do things.nunu said:
Lol. They are fucking useless as plotters then.MaxPB said:
About midnight I think. Last time it happened at 3am when the nation was asleep.RobD said:
What time did it start over there, it must have been after midnight?MaxPB said:
They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.kle4 said:
Sign erdogan is winning this?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.0 -
Reuters: bomb his Turkish parliament in Ankara0
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Bomb hits Turkish Parliament — BBC.0
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Snopes on Me Me Mensch's "scoop": http://www.snopes.com/france-covered-up-bataclan-victims/0
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They should have phoned May for tips beforehand.FrancisUrquhart said:
They have been watching the Labour leadership attempted coup and thought it was a blueprint on how to do things.nunu said:
Lol. They are fucking useless as plotters then.MaxPB said:
About midnight I think. Last time it happened at 3am when the nation was asleep.RobD said:
What time did it start over there, it must have been after midnight?MaxPB said:
They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.kle4 said:
Sign erdogan is winning this?FrancisUrquhart said:President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.
I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.0 -
BBC still sounding very pessimistic about Erdogan's chances.0
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There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.0
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The plotters have lost the airport and the TV station apparently. If that is true then they have lost. They should have shut down the internet and all TV stations from the beginning then gone in air to tell people to stay indoors. Once Erdogan was able to rally his rent-a-mob it was never going to be easy, they could probably still win but it would end up being a very bloody, very messy affair.AndyJS said:BBC still sounding very pessimistic about Erdogan's chances.
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https://www.facebook.com/gemliklife/ proper singalong here0
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Seems like the plotters have taken tips from the PLP0
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You wonder how crap their military training is if they can't seize and hold something like a tv station vs a civilian mob.MaxPB said:
The plotters have lost the airport and the TV station apparently. If that is true then they have lost. They should have shut down the internet and all TV stations from the beginning then gone in air to tell people to stay indoors. Once Erdogan was able to rally his rent-a-mob it was never going to be easy, they could probably still win but it would end up being a very bloody, very messy affair.AndyJS said:BBC still sounding very pessimistic about Erdogan's chances.
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https://www.flightradar24.com/THY8456/a5a3952Y0kel said:There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.
The 21st Century is insane.0 -
Aint in no holding pattern now.Pong said:
https://www.flightradar24.com/THY8456/a5a3952Y0kel said:There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.
The 21st Century is insane.0 -
And its heading North East towards Istanbul.Pong said:
https://www.flightradar24.com/THY8456/a5a3952Y0kel said:There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.
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That's him I reckon.Pong said:
https://www.flightradar24.com/THY8456/a5a3952Y0kel said:There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.
The 21st Century is insane.0 -
Just watching a wedding (I think) party going on in Aleppo - not a hijab or veil in sight.0
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Sometimes the squaddies just refuse to fire on the people.FrancisUrquhart said:
You wonder how crap their military training is if they can't seize and hold something like a tv station vs a civilian mob.MaxPB said:
The plotters have lost the airport and the TV station apparently. If that is true then they have lost. They should have shut down the internet and all TV stations from the beginning then gone in air to tell people to stay indoors. Once Erdogan was able to rally his rent-a-mob it was never going to be easy, they could probably still win but it would end up being a very bloody, very messy affair.AndyJS said:BBC still sounding very pessimistic about Erdogan's chances.
If it can be done bloodlessly by the seizure of TV stations, parliaments, convincing the regime to flee, etc. - they're in.
If it means massacring their fellow citizens [and ending up swinging from lampposts themselves] - they're out.0 -
That kind of thing isn't so much about training though is it? The issue is how you react when folk ignore the warning shots. Do you really want to shoot a civilian, your own countryman? Do you feel comfortable with that? Military training alone can't do that, I suspect, especially if you're in doubt whether the orders are legitimate and your superiors are really in control. Bear in mind your odds of being prosecuted after the event and it would hardly be the easy choice.FrancisUrquhart said:
You wonder how crap their military training is if they can't seize and hold something like a tv station vs a civilian mob.MaxPB said:
The plotters have lost the airport and the TV station apparently. If that is true then they have lost. They should have shut down the internet and all TV stations from the beginning then gone in air to tell people to stay indoors. Once Erdogan was able to rally his rent-a-mob it was never going to be easy, they could probably still win but it would end up being a very bloody, very messy affair.AndyJS said:BBC still sounding very pessimistic about Erdogan's chances.
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According to the flightradar website, the plane has been stationary @ 1250ft for the past 2 minutes.Y0kel said:
And its heading North East towards Istanbul.Pong said:
https://www.flightradar24.com/THY8456/a5a3952Y0kel said:There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.
The website data is probably wrong.
or....
edit. looks like it's landed.0 -
Ankara is too much of a hot zone to land Erdogan by looks of it.0
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1hour 37 mins to cover 475 km0
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Nope, wasn't at all. https://www.facebook.com/gabiafram11 2nd vid down - amongst all the madness in the world people in the war ravaged city of Aleppo were having a great time !nunu said:
Is it segregated?Pulpstar said:Just watching a wedding (I think) party going on in Aleppo - not a hijab or veil in sight.
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Two more explosions hit the Parliament building in Ankara. It can't be over yet.0
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yikes! ok there will be no coup.MarcKlein said:0 -
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"Tens of Turkish soldiers" have surrendered their weapons to armed police in Taksim Square, a witness tells Reuters.0
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new thread folks....0
