politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef
Comments
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What makes you say that?Lowlander said:
The interests of France, America and Russia are aligned.FrankBooth said:What do we think? Is this supported by the West and if so, why? ISIS? Blackmailing Europe over the migrant crisis? Might seem like a cunning move but is Erdogan unpopular? What if an increasingly Islamist Turkey population turned inextricably against the west.
It is hard to think this is not backed in advanced by the West and Russia.
Although it seems the UK is out of the loop.0 -
We need to know how much of the Army is backing the coup. If this isn't resolved quickly this will descend into fully fledged war.0
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counter-coup gaining upper hand: reports0
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This could still end up as a damp squib0
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This curfew isn't exactly being enforced.0
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No you don't. You can have lots of directors not who have to be auto enrolled provided they don't hav a contract of employment. Most tiny firms don't. Even if someone does provided they are taking usual modest salary and mainly dividends then won't usually breach the threshold in pay reference periods so not an eligible jobholder. In helping lots of these and it's just completing a declaration of compliance to the tpr and being aware of responsibility should a worker become an eligible jobholder. Really not that big a hassle for these husband wife businesses.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yep, as soon as you have two directors you have to go through the entire nonsense, with threats at every stage saying you're committing a criminal offence if you get the slightest detail of the charade wrong.Scrapheap_as_was said:That's not really the case. Changes made to rules for director only firms. Have you used the tpr employer duties checker?
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"The Turkish president's office will not disclose Erdogan's whereabouts to the Associated Press news agency, saying he is at a secure location."DanSmith said:So Erdogan is out of Turkey?
http://www.dw.com/en/updates-military-attempt-to-seize-power-in-turkey/a-194037120 -
It seems pretty hard to concluded who is in or out of the loop right now, and even harder to suggest with any certainty that France is in on it and we're not.Lowlander said:
The interests of France, America and Russia are aligned.FrankBooth said:What do we think? Is this supported by the West and if so, why? ISIS? Blackmailing Europe over the migrant crisis? Might seem like a cunning move but is Erdogan unpopular? What if an increasingly Islamist Turkey population turned inextricably against the west.
It is hard to think this is not backed in advanced by the West and Russia.
Although it seems the UK is out of the loop.0 -
Seems like pretty much all of it tbh. Only he police and Erdogan loyalists are in opposition IMO. The military seems united, they wouldn't have moved without that unity. That the senior generals have been locked away shows that.Chameleon said:We need to know how much of the Army is backing the coup. If this isn't resolved quickly this will descend into fully fledged war.
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When you start shooting at civilians it will. Reports are that there have been outbreaks of firing where the military has met protestors.MyBurningEars said:
I have the horrible feeling that this could get very, very bloody.MaxPB said:Live fire on one of the bridges. Erdogan is a fool. He should have given up. People are going to die and he won't hold on.
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Is that not a call for a he home sec?AndyJS said:Hopefully Boris tells him to go elsewhere:
https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/7540744447385313280 -
Agree. I also find it a bit embarrassing that Germany isn't letting him in - firstly because they've let everyone else in, secondly because when he was in power they were silencing comedians for him. RUDE I call it.John_M said:
Yes, we should let him land on condition that he accepts defeat. Least bloodshed please.Sean_F said:
Allowing him asylum here would probably help resolve the situation quickly.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tell him to f##k off.marke09 said:NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London
As was said upthread, the coup needs to succeed or fail quickly.0 -
Sure, but we're not a husband and wife business, we're a proper company where the directors are definitely also employees. Like many other companies.Scrapheap_as_was said:No you don't. You can have lots of directors not who have to be auto enrolled provided they don't hav a contract of employment. Most tiny firms don't. Even if someone does provided they are taking usual modest salary and mainly dividends then won't usually breach the threshold in pay reference periods so not an eligible jobholder. In helping lots of these and it's just completing a declaration of compliance to the tpr and being aware of responsibility should a worker become an eligible jobholder. Really not that big a hassle for these husband wife businesses.
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Hundreds of live feeds from streets all over Turkey: https://www.facebook.com/live
Erdogan supporters it appears.0 -
Apparently police are arming themselves and AKP supporters. This is looking like a civil war.0
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This is too early to call a success.0
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Suspect a lot of junior officers may be being fitted up for the noose come the morning.0
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I believe that the secularist troops in Turkey will NOT be the namby-pamby bleeding-heart liberals in Germany, France and the UK. When they know it's either us or them they will make dammed sure it is them.kle4 said:
Only one winner in such a chaotic situation, I fear, and it isn't secularists.Chameleon said:Mosques are urging people onto the street, this is may turn into a Muslims v Secularists civil war.
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Military opening fire at Intelligence agencies. Looks like they are hitting Erdogan as hard as possible.0
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The key difference to normal scenarios is that one side is a secularist army, the other an islamic group of ex-civilians.weejonnie said:
I believe that the secularist troops in Turkey will NOT be the namby-pamby bleeding-heart liberals in Germany, France and the UK. When they know it's either us or them they will make dammed sure it is them.kle4 said:
Only one winner in such a chaotic situation, I fear, and it isn't secularists.Chameleon said:Mosques are urging people onto the street, this is may turn into a Muslims v Secularists civil war.
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Look, all I want to see is Erdogan's charred naked corpse in a ditch. Is that too much to ask?0
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Making light of things being a coping mechanism, given they didn't see the coup coming, presumably, maybe the military should let the intelligence agencies keep advising Erdogan.MaxPB said:Military opening fire at Intelligence agencies. Looks like they are hitting Erdogan as hard as possible.
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Haha - very good.IanB2 said:
She wrote "F Off" by his name on the list of MPs and it was all a terrible misunderstandingTim_B said:Now that the dust has settled a bit, what was Theresa May's rationale for making BoJo foreign secretary?
I have to think it was more than "You broke it - you fix it."0 -
Are the Turkish military following the PLP playbook? The PLP were sure that Corbyn couldn't carry on with zero support from the MPs. The Turkish military were sure that Erdogan couldn't carry on with zero support from the army.
Maybe both were wrong...0 -
surely the rumour Erdogan has fled is a deliberate attempt by the coup forces to lead his supporters to believe they have been abandoned.0
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So who's winning in Turkey? Looks like a clash is inevitable.0
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From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.
If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.0 -
Calls to prayer across Turkey saying: 'For gods sake, the president's sake, the state's sake, please go out.0
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Maybe the coup forces should force the TV stations to play that clip of Erdogan's balls being stamped on by a horse over and over.0
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quite obviously a call for the PMtlg86 said:
Is that not a call for a he home sec?AndyJS said:Hopefully Boris tells him to go elsewhere:
https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/7540744447385313280 -
Sky News has got a right comical ali lady on....0
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I'm not so sure. People are probably going to disperse soon and the military will still hold the key parts of the nation's infrastructure.alex. said:Are the Turkish military following the PLP playbook? The PLP were sure that Corbyn couldn't carry on with zero support from the MPs. The Turkish military were sure that Erdogan couldn't carry on with zero support from the army.
Maybe both were wrong...0 -
Get Boris on the phone to him...........John_M said:
Yes, we should let him land on condition that he accepts defeat. Least bloodshed please.Sean_F said:
Allowing him asylum here would probably help resolve the situation quickly.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tell him to f##k off.marke09 said:NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London
As was said upthread, the coup needs to succeed or fail quickly.
Reality is getting beyond parody.0 -
The West > Turkey.Lowlander said:From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.
If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.0 -
Where is Dave?TheWhiteRabbit said:
quite obviously a call for the PMtlg86 said:
Is that not a call for a he home sec?AndyJS said:Hopefully Boris tells him to go elsewhere:
https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/7540744447385313280 -
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The grim reaper is winning.MikeK said:So who's winning in Turkey? Looks like a clash is inevitable.
Everyone else is losing.0 -
The poor poor newspaper editors these days.
Has Dan Hodges explained how this is bad news for Corbyn yet?0 -
What we may also see is the freeing of political dissidents and those who have been court martialed.0
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I suspect that you're overriding the downside slightly. While I agree that the next 12 hours are extremely crucial, the result can be anywhere from a co-operative administration installed that will tackle the migrant crisis & ISIS to a hostile state on the door-step. If I was a western leader I'd be telling all assets to assist the coup however they can.Lowlander said:From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.
If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.0 -
LOL. She is claiming it is a tiny tiny number of soldiers yet is verging on tears.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky News has got a right comical ali lady on....
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Early night's sleep.Jonathan said:
Where is Dave?TheWhiteRabbit said:
quite obviously a call for the PMtlg86 said:
Is that not a call for a he home sec?AndyJS said:Hopefully Boris tells him to go elsewhere:
https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/7540744447385313280 -
Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist. Lets hope the interview finishes before she starts sobbing.0
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The West has no John Sobieski. Islam is blocked from Europe by Turkey and has been for over 100 years.Philip_Thompson said:
The West > Turkey.Lowlander said:From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.
If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.
That is ending if Erdogan wins. Hardcore, fundamentalist Islam will be 200 miles from the gates of Vienna. With an uncontrollable border letting anyone they want to let in.0 -
Tiny companies to me are that size. If you are talking 5 to 10 staff then you should be caught by AE if you don't have a scheme for genuine employee directors sRichard_Nabavi said:
Sure, but we're not a husband and wife business, we're a proper company where the directors are definitely also employees. Like many other companies.Scrapheap_as_was said:No you don't. You can have lots of directors not who have to be auto enrolled provided they don't hav a contract of employment. Most tiny firms don't. Even if someone does provided they are taking usual modest salary and mainly dividends then won't usually breach the threshold in pay reference periods so not an eligible jobholder. In helping lots of these and it's just completing a declaration of compliance to the tpr and being aware of responsibility should a worker become an eligible jobholder. Really not that big a hassle for these husband wife businesses.
And in fact why would you not just have a qwps already with all the tax advantages there are incl sal exchange for the company???0 -
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Delusional: some Erdogan supporters calling on western leaders to support him.0
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"The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara
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People who want to die for their beliefs should be given every assistance.Chameleon said:
The key difference to normal scenarios is that one side is a secularist army, the other an islamic group of ex-civilians.weejonnie said:
I believe that the secularist troops in Turkey will NOT be the namby-pamby bleeding-heart liberals in Germany, France and the UK. When they know it's either us or them they will make dammed sure it is them.kle4 said:
Only one winner in such a chaotic situation, I fear, and it isn't secularists.Chameleon said:Mosques are urging people onto the street, this is may turn into a Muslims v Secularists civil war.
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That's because he's been deposed. This hasn't been led by the generals.Richard_Nabavi said:"The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara
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Taking command of the coup? or government forces?Richard_Nabavi said:"The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara
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And the Gulen movement get the finger pointed at them for this coup.0
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Not been my experience at all. My company has two directors and all I had to do was sign a piece of paper to that effect and I am opted out. All sorted for me by my accountant in minutes.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yep, as soon as you have two directors you have to go through the entire nonsense, with threats at every stage saying you're committing a criminal offence if you get the slightest detail of the charade wrong.Scrapheap_as_was said:That's not really the case. Changes made to rules for director only firms. Have you used the tpr employer duties checker?
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His diary is remarkably free.Jonathan said:
Where is Dave?TheWhiteRabbit said:
quite obviously a call for the PMtlg86 said:
Is that not a call for a he home sec?AndyJS said:Hopefully Boris tells him to go elsewhere:
https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/7540744447385313280 -
No, just why it is bad news for Ed Miliband.kle4 said:The poor poor newspaper editors these days.
Has Dan Hodges explained how this is bad news for Corbyn yet?0 -
One important thing to note is that the Turkish military is made up largely of conscripts.0
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Don't be silly. If the military wins they are likely to revive the 'no problems with neighbours' policy and do very little. If Erdogan wins, he's similarly likely not to emerge from his hutch very often for a while. Neither scenario is devastating for 'The West'. But it won't be nice for the Turkish people, that's for sure.Lowlander said:From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.
If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.0 -
I think the military need to talk to the police and ensure their safety and status so they drop support for Erdogan. If they can get the police on side in Ankara it's done.0
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Breaking - Owen Smith’s 2nd attempt at a leadership launch postponed....0
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Should the D-notices not be issued already?MaxPB said:
She's an AKP member.Chameleon said:Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.
As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.
Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?0 -
Of course, we have a small self-administered scheme, which we're perfectly happy with, and into which we pay far more than the auto-enrolment limits. But like most such schemes it's not compliant with the auto-enrolment rules.Scrapheap_as_was said:Tiny companies to me are that size. If you are talking 5 to 10 staff then you should be caught by AE if you don't have a scheme for genuine employee directors s
And in fact why would you not just have a qwps already with all the tax advantages there are incl sal exchange for the company???
Anyway - my point to Baroness Altman was a simple one. Why on earth did we have to go through the charade, knowing that it was a charade? Who was the charade supposed to protect? This is supposed to be a government dedicated to sweeping away nonsensical red-tape, and here was a completely unambiguous piece of nonsensical red-tape all ready to be cut out.0 -
How many in Turkey are watching Sky?Lowlander said:
Should the D-notices not be issued already?MaxPB said:
She's an AKP member.Chameleon said:Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.
As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.
Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?0 -
I believe the Chief of Staff has been arrested.Richard_Nabavi said:"The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara
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I got the feeling Sky News got caught out there, as they introduced the lady first as a journalist....then I think somebody realised oh f##k she is a member of the AKP and just parroting the propaganda.
Tim Marshall appears to have gone from their coverage which is a shame.0 -
Given that Erdogan has been giving interviews on Turkish TV I'm not sure that it matters what happens here or anywhere else outside of Europe.Lowlander said:
Should the D-notices not be issued already?MaxPB said:
She's an AKP member.Chameleon said:Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.
As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.
Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?0 -
The Chief of Staff is an Erdogan supporter (as are most of the senior command). That they have been neutralised is a good sign. They are more important than Erdogan.Richard_Nabavi said:"The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara
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Sorry, I meant two employee-directors.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not been my experience at all. My company has two directors and all I had to do was sign a piece of paper to that effect and I am opted out. All sorted for me by my accountant in minutes.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yep, as soon as you have two directors you have to go through the entire nonsense, with threats at every stage saying you're committing a criminal offence if you get the slightest detail of the charade wrong.Scrapheap_as_was said:That's not really the case. Changes made to rules for director only firms. Have you used the tpr employer duties checker?
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She was introduced as a member of AKP.FrancisUrquhart said:I got the feeling Sky News got caught out there, as they introduced the lady first as a journalist....then I think somebody realised oh f##k she is a member of the AKP and just parrotting the propaganda.
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Exactly but need to be aware of you do become classed as having a worker on your books.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not been my experience at all. My company has two directors and all I had to do was sign a piece of paper to that effect and I am opted out. All sorted for me by my accountant in minutes.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yep, as soon as you have two directors you have to go through the entire nonsense, with threats at every stage saying you're committing a criminal offence if you get the slightest detail of the charade wrong.Scrapheap_as_was said:That's not really the case. Changes made to rules for director only firms. Have you used the tpr employer duties checker?
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Al Jazeera wins hands down. BBC reporting events of two hours ago. AJ interviewing ex-PM live.0
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There's so much spinning going on from Erdogan's people, it's amazing.0
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Thank youLuckyguy1983 said:
Don't be silly. If the military wins they are likely to revive the 'no problems with neighbours' policy and do very little. If Erdogan wins, he's similarly likely not to emerge from his hutch very often for a while. Neither scenario is devastating for 'The West'. But it won't be nice for the Turkish people, that's for sure.Lowlander said:From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.
If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.0 -
Issuing a d-notice is fairly meaningless in the 21st century with the internet, it is totally meaningless when you're talking British media and a Turkish coup. If Sky/BBC stop reporting coverage what will stop CNN and others?Lowlander said:
Should the D-notices not be issued already?MaxPB said:
She's an AKP member.Chameleon said:Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.
As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.
Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?0 -
Did they. I only heard journalist when the interview started...then about half way through they added to the caption AKP member....but I am multi-tasking so I could be wrong.RobD said:
She was introduced as a member of AKP.FrancisUrquhart said:I got the feeling Sky News got caught out there, as they introduced the lady first as a journalist....then I think somebody realised oh f##k she is a member of the AKP and just parrotting the propaganda.
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Wonder if there are any Pokemon near the Bosphorous bridge.0
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Great news. Turkish people crushes Golan. Golan is an Islamist and these coup plotters were supporting him.
All political parties have come out against the coup.0 -
Main Kurdish party has come out against coup. trying to curry favour if Erdogan wins?0
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For example, Fox News are taking their feed from Sky. The UK might be a tiny backwater in political terms but its news services are still important. Issue the D-notices and make sure the coup is properly backed.RobD said:
How many in Turkey are watching Sky?Lowlander said:
Should the D-notices not be issued already?MaxPB said:
She's an AKP member.Chameleon said:Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.
As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.
Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?0 -
Foreign powers ostensibly not taking sides.0
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Yeah, it was explicitly mentioned she was part of Erdogan's party.FrancisUrquhart said:
Did they. I only heard journalist...then about half way through they added to the caption AKP....but I am multi-tasking so I could have been wrong.RobD said:
She was introduced as a member of AKP.FrancisUrquhart said:I got the feeling Sky News got caught out there, as they introduced the lady first as a journalist....then I think somebody realised oh f##k she is a member of the AKP and just parrotting the propaganda.
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"ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG) @anadoluagency 2m2 minutes ago
+ Gen. Dundar: 'Required measures taken with other troops that did not join but remain in command chain'
ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG) @anadoluagency 3m3 minutes ago
Gen. Dundar: 'Coup leaders small group in first army command; no need to worry' +"
https://twitter.com/anadoluagency0 -
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Why the hell would the Government be issuing D-notices to prevent coverage of a coup in a foreign country?Philip_Thompson said:
Issuing a d-notice is fairly meaningless in the 21st century with the internet, it is totally meaningless when you're talking British media and a Turkish coup. If Sky/BBC stop reporting coverage what will stop CNN and others?Lowlander said:
Should the D-notices not be issued already?MaxPB said:
She's an AKP member.Chameleon said:Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.
As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.
Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?0 -
Plenty of time for that later.Pulpstar said:Foreign powers ostensibly not taking sides.
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nice one Richardalex. said:
That's because he's been deposed. This hasn't been led by the generals.Richard_Nabavi said:"The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara
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If the Americans are involved why isn't there a colour?Lowlander said:
The interests of France, America and Russia are aligned.FrankBooth said:What do we think? Is this supported by the West and if so, why? ISIS? Blackmailing Europe over the migrant crisis? Might seem like a cunning move but is Erdogan unpopular? What if an increasingly Islamist Turkey population turned inextricably against the west.
It is hard to think this is not backed in advanced by the West and Russia.
Although it seems the UK is out of the loop.0
