politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef
Comments
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Agree with all that (except Utah!) - Clinton will also carry CO.rcs1000 said:
Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.JackW said:
Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.Pulpstar said:Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".
Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.0 -
Where can you bet on individual states?rcs1000 said:
Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.JackW said:
Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.Pulpstar said:Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".
Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.0 -
Oh, I think Trump will win Utah. In fact, he's probably a 90% chance. But he's not a 99% chance.Jobabob said:
Agree with all that (except Utah!) - Clinton will also carry CO.rcs1000 said:
Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.JackW said:
Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.Pulpstar said:Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".
Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.0 -
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.rottenborough said:
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.0 -
Somebody said it was 100-1 earlier, I haven't checked where they got that from.AndyJS said:
Where can you bet on individual states?rcs1000 said:
Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.JackW said:
Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.Pulpstar said:Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".
Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.0 -
I think that it should not be permissible to rennounce your rights - you can agree to use the parallel system but you should always have a right of appeal to the normal courtsrcs1000 said:
There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.
There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.0 -
https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/753910308834533380rcs1000 said:Somebody said it was 100-1 earlier, I haven't checked where they got that from.
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That's because you voted leave dude..FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
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@GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++
Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP
Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD
https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN0 -
@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.0
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Did I? And my day to day life is surrounded by people who overwhelmingly voted to remain. I joked on the Friday of spending the day at one of the countries leading unis & expecting to see academics having to be talked down off roofs etc. In fact what I found was disappointment but determination to crack on. And the message has been one of little immediate change & projects that were already agreed going ahead.Monksfield said:
That's because you voted leave dude..FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
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Spot on as ever Jack - the premier PBer for US politics for many a good year. What is less discussed is how Trump is also losing white professional Republican entrepreneurs. My brother lives in CO, his in-laws are devoted wealthy low-tax GOP, but neither will vote for Trump. His mother-in-law will vote Democratic for the first time in her life "because I wanna see Trump lose so bad". His father-in-law will abstain for the first time.JackW said:
The WWC is a diminishing demographic, the more so in swing states and a group that in the primaries showed no exceptional fervour for Trump.nunu said:Lol Trump is not Romney. Romney and McCain are the establishment candidates, no one who hasnt voted since the '80s are suddenly going to vote for them plus the financial crash had just happed people are not going to vote for change (when I say change I mean a revolution like Brexit) in the middle of a shit storm they vote for it when things calm down.
Hilary could still win but she needs to connect with wwc ex industrial city America, especially with Trump's VP choice.
Further for every WWC that Trump might attract he is losing college educated whites that Clinton is polling well in. Trump will not win by relying on WWC.0 -
Mordaunt backed Leadsom in the leadership contest.Scott_P said:@GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++
Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP
Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD
https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN
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If you willingly give up your rights, that's your concern surely.Charles said:
I think that it should not be permissible to rennounce your rights - you can agree to use the parallel system but you should always have a right of appeal to the normal courtsrcs1000 said:
There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.
There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.
But it's an interesting one, certainly. In the UK, all the bookmakers require you to use ABAS and not the courts. If they all do, it's effectively a cartel restricting the ability of people to use the UK legal system.0 -
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?Jobabob said:
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.rottenborough said:
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.0 -
Trump will easily win Missouri - +10-12rcs1000 said:Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.
But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.
Clinton wins PA WI NV FL - +5-7 .. Ohio +3-5
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It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promotedScott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
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I gave Trump all the states he is currently leading in the state polling average (all polls, except Rasmussen, Fox, Marist, GQR, Demcorps, partisan pollsters for either Democrats or Republicans) by more than 2%.JackW said:
I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?Speedy said:I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.
Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.
And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
Basically all the states Romney won in 2012 minus N.Carolina, and added Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine's CD-2.
Don't forget Maine and Nebraska split their EV votes among their Congressional Districts.0 -
As do the Jewish law courts.PrinceofTaranto said:
And I could set up Smithson's Law and Tribunal Court Today, and get people to sign a contract with me when they get married saying they'll consult me first, and that my views will be binding.0 -
Mordaunt didn't even know she was responsible for the Fire and Rescue Service when she was at DCLOG. I doubt she'll have a better grasp of the DWP.anotherDave said:
Mordaunt backed Leadsom in the leadership contest.Scott_P said:@GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++
Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP
Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD
https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN0 -
Similar to Romney's score there?Pulpstar said:
Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".JackW said:Missouri - PPP
Clinton 36 .. Trump 46
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf
Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.0 -
A bit like House Saxe-Coburg Gotha?rcs1000 said:
As do the Jewish law courts.PrinceofTaranto said:
And I could set up Smithson's Law and Tribunal Court Today, and get people to sign a contract with me when they get married saying they'll consult me first, and that my views will be binding.
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Lowcostholidays goes into administration with warning to travellers
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/15/lowcostholidays-administration-warning-travellers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard0 -
I think Clinton will perhaps carry PA, but it will be close.nunu said:JackW said:
I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?Speedy said:I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.
Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.
And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.JackW said:
I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?Speedy said:I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.
Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.
And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
Don't you think with each tragic event like Nice Trump will seem like the answer to more and more people, and the chances of a polling disaster bigger than Brexit grows ever more likely.JackW said:
I'm intrigued how you get Trump to 261?Speedy said:I have Trump winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Maine's CD-2.
Hillary winning Colorado and Maine's CD-1.
Nevada, Iowa, N.Carolina, Ohio, N.Hampshire and Maine as too close to call for a total of Trump 261, Hillary 233, TCTC 44.
And I'm using the same non-partisan state pollsters that gave Hillary a comfortable win of 311 EV as early as April, so it's a real movement towards Trump.
They are downweighting the wwc, he will win Penn easily. Anyone with a brain cell can see that forget the polls for a second.0 -
I was thinking about binding arbitration when I wrote my original post.rcs1000 said:
If you willingly give up your rights, that's your concern surely.Charles said:
I think that it should not be permissible to rennounce your rights - you can agree to use the parallel system but you should always have a right of appeal to the normal courtsrcs1000 said:
There are actually several parallel legal systems in the UK.
There's the Beth Din, for example. And there are lots areas where people agree to renounce their rights to use the British civil law system, and instead use parallel private courts.
But it's an interesting one, certainly. In the UK, all the bookmakers require you to use ABAS and not the courts. If they all do, it's effectively a cartel restricting the ability of people to use the UK legal system.
But I think that there should be some fundamental guarantees - such as equality before the law - that all citizens benefit from.
If a system meets these criteria then I'd be open to allow people to give up their rights. If not, then not.
E.g. for instance I think that a man can divorce a woman in the Beth Din without any financial settlement. That is not acceptable in my view0 -
By living in LondonTwistedFireStopper said:
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?Jobabob said:
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.rottenborough said:
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.
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It is because, if the tabloids aren't printing "economy in crisis" headlines for a week or two, people think things are back to normal, since the sun comes up and goes down every day, the same as before. The fact that our economy remains on life support on the back of near-free money and large doses of QE, our debt continues to rise, and whilst being in this immensely fragile position we have just voted to take the biggest 'double or quits' gamble in our history, won't impinge on people unless or until it starts to go wrong.FrancisUrquhart said:
Did I? And my day to day life is surrounded by people who overwhelmingly voted to remain. I joked on the Friday of spending the day at one of the countries leading unis & expecting to see academics having to be talked down off roofs etc. In fact what I found was disappointment but determination to crack on.Monksfield said:
That's because you voted leave dude..FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
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AhahahahahahahahahaScott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
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There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE0 -
I think this is the thrust of the investigation.PrinceofTaranto said:
"The Home Secretary committed to an independent review of the application of sharia law as part of the government’s Counter-Extremism Strategy. The strategy notes that many people in England and Wales follow religious codes and practices, and benefit from the guidance they offer. However, there is evidence some sharia councils may be working in a discriminatory and unacceptable way, seeking to legitimise forced marriage and issuing divorces that are unfair to women, contrary to the teachings of Islam. It will also seek out examples of best practice among sharia councils.
The terms of reference set out the review’s intention to explore whether, and to what extent, the application of sharia law may be incompatible with the law in England and Wales. It will examine the ways in which sharia may be being misused, or exploited, in a way that may discriminate against certain groups, undermine shared values and cause social harms."
With the following rider:
"There is only one rule of law in our country, which provides rights and security for every citizen."0 -
I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.Jobabob said:
By living in LondonTwistedFireStopper said:
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?Jobabob said:
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.rottenborough said:
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.0 -
Could be a threat prompted closure?wasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE0 -
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE0 -
I'd be tempted to give OH to Trump but then both my brother and I lost money last time by under-betting you on the EC vote Jack. You would think we'd learned our lesson!JackW said:
Trump will easily win Missouri - +10-12rcs1000 said:Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.
But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.
Clinton wins PA WI NV FL - +5-7 .. Ohio +3-50 -
Breaking - gunfire, military jets & helicopters overhead in istanbul0
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But they have recourse to English law.PrinceofTaranto said:0 -
Betfair isn't doing state betting atm.rcs1000 said:
Somebody said it was 100-1 earlier, I haven't checked where they got that from.AndyJS said:
Where can you bet on individual states?rcs1000 said:
Personal view is that Trump will do very well in the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.JackW said:
Hardly. Romney beat Obama by 9.5 points in 12.Pulpstar said:Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".
Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
But that he'll fail in Nevada, and Florida. Given how the Mormons feel about Trump, take the 100-1 on the Republicans to lose Utah.0 -
Wow, there aren't many threats that would need a jet to be deployedFrancisUrquhart said:Breaking - gunfire, military jets & helicopters overhead in istanbul
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I do actually, from time to time.TwistedFireStopper said:
I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.Jobabob said:
By living in LondonTwistedFireStopper said:
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?Jobabob said:
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.rottenborough said:
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.0 -
Indeed.Jobabob said:
Similar to Romney's score there?Pulpstar said:
Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".JackW said:Missouri - PPP
Clinton 36 .. Trump 46
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf
Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
As I have mentioned back in April, due to the nature of Trump losing some Republicans and gaining Democrats there is a swing that is distinct in safe states.
So far on the states that have polls published, the average shift from 2012 per category is:
Safe R states.
Trump -12
Hillary -4
Swing States.
Hillary -8
Trump -6
Safe D states.
Hillary -13
Trump -5
That is not enough usually to move safe states into the other camp, because the majorities from 2012 where so large for the victor.
But in individual states like Utah, Maine, Connecticut and Delaware it is enough to reduce the margin to single digits.
In the case of Maine, Trump may pick up 1 EV from CD-2.0 -
Indeed. What the hell is her problem. Grayling took a relatively minor role after being the PM's main backer. Stupid person.Charles said:
It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promotedScott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
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I rest my case!Jobabob said:
I do actually, from time to time.TwistedFireStopper said:
I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.Jobabob said:
By living in LondonTwistedFireStopper said:
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?Jobabob said:
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.rottenborough said:
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48.
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Vice news reporter suggesting could be a military coup.0
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What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?0 -
I always thought Penny Mordaunt was something to do with the Navy. No idea where I got that idea from.TwistedFireStopper said:
Mordaunt didn't even know she was responsible for the Fire and Rescue Service when she was at DCLOG. I doubt she'll have a better grasp of the DWP.anotherDave said:
Mordaunt backed Leadsom in the leadership contest.Scott_P said:@GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++
Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP
Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD
https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN0 -
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?0 -
Being an MP for Portsmouth, possibly?Jobabob said:
I always thought Penny Mordaunt was something to do with the Navy. No idea where I got that idea from.TwistedFireStopper said:
Mordaunt didn't even know she was responsible for the Fire and Rescue Service when she was at DCLOG. I doubt she'll have a better grasp of the DWP.anotherDave said:
Mordaunt backed Leadsom in the leadership contest.Scott_P said:@GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++
Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP
Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD
https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN0 -
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?0 -
So Boris how you liking this cushy foreign secretary job....0
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That sums up Sourby.Charles said:
It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promotedScott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
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What's your overall forecast for the EC?Speedy said:
Indeed.Jobabob said:
Similar to Romney's score there?Pulpstar said:
Whilst not a swing state, Missouri should be "closish".JackW said:Missouri - PPP
Clinton 36 .. Trump 46
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf
Trump starting to have the distinct whiff of Brexit about the polling.
As I have mentioned back in April, due to the nature of Trump losing some Republicans and gaining Democrats there is a swing that is distinct in safe states.
So far on the states that have polls published, the average shift from 2012 per category is:
Safe R states.
Trump -12
Hillary -4
Swing States.
Hillary -8
Trump -6
Safe D states.
Hillary -13
Trump -5
That is not enough usually to move safe states into the other camp, because the majorities from 2012 where so large for the victor.
But in individual states like Utah, Maine, Connecticut and Delaware it is enough to reduce the margin to single digits.
In the case of Maine, Trump may pick up 1 EV from CD-2.0 -
Could it not just be an anti-terrorist operation?ydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?0 -
Oh not again.FrancisUrquhart said:Breaking - gunfire, military jets & helicopters overhead in istanbul
It was only 24 hours since the last terrorist attack on the news.0 -
The ideal man to deal with a problem in Turkey though...FrancisUrquhart said:So Boris how you liking this cushy foreign secretary job....
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She was a Navy Reservist.IanB2 said:
Being an MP for Portsmouth, possibly?Jobabob said:
I always thought Penny Mordaunt was something to do with the Navy. No idea where I got that idea from.TwistedFireStopper said:
Mordaunt didn't even know she was responsible for the Fire and Rescue Service when she was at DCLOG. I doubt she'll have a better grasp of the DWP.anotherDave said:
Mordaunt backed Leadsom in the leadership contest.Scott_P said:@GuidoFawkes: ++ NEW APPOINTMENTS ++
Penny Mordaunt Minister of State at DWP
Mike Penning Minister of State at MoD
https://t.co/Z2YGkgKftN0 -
She's got a new job offer in the cabinet of the new European Democrats.MaxPB said:
Indeed. What the hell is her problem. Grayling took a relatively minor role after being the PM's main backer. Stupid person.Charles said:
It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promotedScott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
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Crazy stuff.ydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?0 -
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If it is a military coup I'm surprised both that it is happening and that it hasn't happened yet.MaxPB said:
Crazy stuff.ydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?0 -
Only from PretTwistedFireStopper said:
I rest my case!Jobabob said:
I do actually, from time to time.TwistedFireStopper said:
I always knew you were a member of the Champagne socialist metropolitan elite. Probably eat prawn sarnies as well.Jobabob said:
By living in LondonTwistedFireStopper said:
It must feel awful to live in such a shitty country. How do you cope?Jobabob said:
I'd be keen to know how many of the 52 think we have already left the EU. I hazard a guess that 20 or 30% of them think we have.rottenborough said:
"people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives"FrancisUrquhart said:Is it just me...the media and labour keep pushing this narrative that because of brexit vote we now live in a massively divided nation. I am going to guess if we votes to.remain we wouldn't be hearing this. But on a real world level I can't say my day to day life and my contact with people is any different. My experience is.much more as described by the lady from the economist on Newsnight the other day, most people in Britain were / are somewhere in the middle, have accepted the result & gone back to their normal lives.
Unfortunately, I think these will be exactly the same people who will be crying ten buckets of shit when the economy goes tits up and they lose their jobs/pensions/state benefits/NHS appointments in two years time.
What me gov? Oh no, I voted Remain. We are the 48. 0 -
It could, but in all three cities at once it seems a little unlikely. A 'terrorist plot' has been used as cover for a coup before as well, e.g. Hitler in 1934.alex. said:
Could it not just be an anti-terrorist operation?ydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?0 -
If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.ydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup.
Erdogan might survive if its unsanctioned.0 -
So Turkey won't be joining the E.U after all. Lolydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
Not that anyone thought they would soon.0 -
The military are the secular ones, right?Speedy said:
If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.ydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup.
Erdogan might survive if it unsanctioned.0 -
My interpretation or the Turkish Army's actions?MaxPB said:
Crazy stuff.ydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?0 -
Good riddance to bad rubbish.TCPoliticalBetting said:
That sums up Sourby.Charles said:
It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promotedScott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Reshuffle latest: Baroness Altmann and @Anna_Soubry have left the govt, Soubry voluntarily after not making the Cabinet. A loss in my view.
0 -
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I make that only 258 for Trump ?Speedy said:I gave Trump all the states he is currently leading in the state polling average (all polls, except Rasmussen, Fox, Marist, GQR, Demcorps, partisan pollsters for either Democrats or Republicans) by more than 2%.
Basically all the states Romney won in 2012 minus N.Carolina, and added Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine's CD-2.
Don't forget Maine and Nebraska split their EV votes among their Congressional Districts.
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0
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Footage of Tanks on the streets & jets flying very very low.0
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While we wait to see what, if any, new horror is being perpetrated, a repeat link to Andy Haldane's speech on 30th June. Apparently his remarks today lopped 1.32% off sterling, so he's 1/10 of a Brexit in his own right. Good speech, complete with graphs at the back.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech916.pdf0 -
Real baptism of fire for our PM and Foreign Secretary. Terrorism in Europe and a possible coup in a NATO nation.0
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Military coup in Turkey?0
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A coup could make eventual accession more likely not less.nunu said:
So Turkey won't be joining the E.U after all. Lolydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
Not that anyone thought they would soon.0 -
Could spend the News channels into a spin - all their top people are in France.0
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Correct.RobD said:
The military are the secular ones, right?Speedy said:
If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.ydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup.
Erdogan might survive if it unsanctioned.0 -
With planes?alex. said:
Could it not just be an anti-terrorist operation?ydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?0 -
The reports I'm getting are about tanks on the bridges of the Bosporus right now.RobD said:
The military are the secular ones, right?Speedy said:
If it is a coup, then from the places that there is movement I would bet it would be against Erdogan.ydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
However I would not be betting against Erdogan without knowing if the americans are behind a possible coup.
Erdogan might survive if it unsanctioned.0 -
Soubry tweeting that she's returning to her constituency to continue campaigning for Remain. Stay true to the Emperor Anna! Banzai!0
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Ambulances at the office of the General Staff indicate it could be terrorism related rather than a coup.0
-
Indeed, if the military are about to oust the AKP then it makes Turkey joining the EU much more likely.Philip_Thompson said:
A coup could make eventual accession more likely not less.nunu said:
So Turkey won't be joining the E.U after all. Lolydoethur said:
That's starting to look like a coup. But for or against Erdogan?Philip_Thompson said:
I've heard that it is Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara that have been secured by the Gendarme (military police).ydoethur said:
What's puzzling is that Reuter is saying this is in the Turkish capital, which is of course Ankara.Charles said:
Gunfire reportedwasd said:There appears to be something happening in Turkey.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-istanbul-bridges-idUSKCN0ZV2FE
Has one of their writers got muddled, or is there a coup in progress (which is the only explanation I can think of for both cities descending into chaos)?
Not that anyone thought they would soon.0 -
The news outlets absolutely nowhere to be seen on this turkey stuff. 2016 - blimey0
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Erdogan is apparently on holiday abroad. Coincidence?0
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Nothing at all about Turkey on Sky News0
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PB is the place to be!Razedabode said:The news outlets absolutely nowhere to be seen on this turkey stuff. 2016 - blimey
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BBC have thousands of people worldwide precisely for events like this, they can pivot very quickly.alex. said:Could spend the News channels into a spin - all their top people are in France.
Sky would likely rely on PA etc at first. Either way 24/7 coverage would be maintained.0 -
@Richard_Tyndall
'It's pretty arrogant for a junior minister to say that he/she won't serve because he^she hasn't been promoted.
That sums up Sourby.
Good riddance to bad rubbish.'
More good news.
0 -
Sky don't do breaking news once they've got a pre-prepared story to fill the schedules.TwistedFireStopper said:Nothing at all about Turkey on Sky News
0 -
Telegraph have a liveblog up, but only with the information posted on PB ages ago. Nothing on the Guardian yet...TwistedFireStopper said:Nothing at all about Turkey on Sky News
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