politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef

surbiton said:

My purchase costs have gone up by 10% in the last 3 weeks. From £ 0.75/EUR to £0.84/EUR.

I have just announced a complete stop to any new spending. I hope to avoid any redundancies. I managed to do that in 2009/2010.

Since we do not have any UK competitors, all of us are in the same boat. So, let's see, who puts up prices first.

Some of our prices are going up. The government is switching the money taps on. We're seeing the return of inflation. We're just not used to it. Wages will likely not rise, so we will inflate our way through Brexit by reducing real wages.

PlatoSaid said:

pbr2013 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I'm sure Ms Mensch, sitting in New York firing off tweets every thirty seconds, is the ideally-placed investigative journalist to give us the truth.

Nevertheless, she appears to be reporting the proceedings of the official French inquiry.

Quite.

The proceedings, but not the findings.

kle4 said:

To go back to Faisal Islam's question:

So is there a version of Brexit that David Davis, Fox and Boris can negotiate from 27 EU nations, that Sturgeon & Scotland will accept?

The answer is no. Not with those three and what they will go for, and thus implicitly what May wants to go for.

kle4 said:

To go back to Faisal Islam's question:

So is there a version of Brexit that David Davis, Fox and Boris can negotiate from 27 EU nations, that Sturgeon & Scotland will accept?

The answer is no. Not with those three and what they will go for, and thus implicitly what May wants to go for.

The answer is no, because Nicola will say its not enough no matter what.

Paristonda said:

Just been listening to May's comments on Scotland. She doesn't seem like someone very comfortable on camera, she has that habit of speaking too quickly and therefore getting certain words wrong and correcting herself, common when people who are nervous public speakers have to give presentations. I'm not saying it as a criticism, just a little surprised given how many times she has been on camera and given speeches!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-article-50-activated-uk-approach-eu-referendum-scotland-sturgeon-a7138971.html

Yes. She she has come across a nervous when speaking on camera in the past few weeks.

Hollande — "50 people between life and death":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-36799172

TGOHF said:

O/T Test betting - the betfair market hates PK - for some reason they are 2.44 to Englands 2.11...

Trade heaven.

Yeah that's odd - it's not like the leg-spinner's suddenly going to be easy to play in the 4th innings is it...

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

MaxPB said:

felix said:

How appalling to have a BoE governor who looks after the money in the BoE!

It feels like people are blaming Mark Carney for the government not having a suitable fiscal and economic policy re Brexit. It isn't up to Carney to make Brexit work, his job is to ensure the safety of the UK banking sector and to keep the taps open until the government come up with policies to take over. He has done both very well without having to resort to interest rate cuts or extra QE just yet. That's a job well done.

Pre-vote, Carney probably overstepped his remit and strayed into politics

Additionally in the speech post Brexit he scared the market unnecessarily - around the likelihood of interest rate cuts.

Overall still a goodish Guv'nor, but not a great one.

Yes, I'd agree with that. I think the risks of Brexit wrt to monetary policy are lesser than the risk to fiscal policy. The banks have been tested for up to a 30% fall in house prices and the failure of a Lehman sized institution simultaneously. All UK banks passed iirc. People are getting on Carney's back because they disagree with him about the economic implications of Brexit, at least in the short term. You and I both know that the uncertainty caused in the short term is likely to see a slowing of the economy and a reduction in house prices, we both voted to leave anyway. The governor saw the same risks and probably voted to remain. Our priorities for Brexit were different to the governor's, but he wasn't and isn't wrong about the short term economic implications of leaving the EU.

No, he wasn't wrong in substance, but he got the tone wrong.

State Polls - Marist/NBC

Colorado - Clinton 43 .. Trump 35
Virginia - Clinton 44 .. Trump 35
North Carolina - Clinton 44 .. Trump 38
Florida - Clinton 44 .. Trump 37

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-leads-trump-diverse-battleground-states-new-polls-n609551

perdix said:

Charles said:

MaxPB said:

felix said:

How appalling to have a BoE governor who looks after the money in the BoE!

It feels like people are blaming Mark Carney for the government not having a suitable fiscal and economic policy re Brexit. It isn't up to Carney to make Brexit work, his job is to ensure the safety of the UK banking sector and to keep the taps open until the government come up with policies to take over. He has done both very well without having to resort to interest rate cuts or extra QE just yet. That's a job well done.

Pre-vote, Carney probably overstepped his remit and strayed into politics

Additionally in the speech post Brexit he scared the market unnecessarily - around the likelihood of interest rate cuts.

Overall still a goodish Guv'nor, but not a great one.

As Carney said, he had a duty, pre-Brexit vote, to assess the BoE view on the risks to having the vote and actually leaving. These were statements of opinion and not politically motivated. His statement on future interest rate cuts were a signal for the future which were emphasised in the MPC minutes. The headbangers have it in for Carey because he did not deny the truth that uncertainty has a downside even if only temporary.

He may have said that, but I don't think that was his duty whatsoever.

It would be fine for him to be having those conversations behind the scenes (and I am sure that he was). No one who is significant in the systemic financial risk learnt anything from his initial speech (pre-Brexit): going public like that could only be political.

Post the announcement he was right to speak out - but he got the tone wrong (you can see that from the FX/stock market movements during his speech)

From last thread, on Michel Houellebecq's Submission: I would recommend anyone trying to think through the whole LePen, nativism and Muslim issue read this book. Especially if thinking about the prospect of major civil disturbances.

Disturbing and from a man many consider France's premier enfant terrible, but very thought provoking and highly plausible.

perdix said:

pbr2013 said:

AndyJS said:

"Why targeting Nice for a terrorist attack was not surprising
The idyllic Mediterranean beach town has a severe problem of Islamist radicalisation"

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21702282-idyllic-mediterranean-beach-town-has-severe-problem-islamist-radicalisation-why

It's ghastly. I used to spend a bit of time in Nice in the 90s. I went back recently and the whole charecter of the place had changed. Walking around you felt like you had to look over your shoulder. And the beurs had a swagger you didn't see in the 90s. Before anyone accuses me of racism, most of my friends there are of Lebanese heritage. We still await news of someone who hasn't been heard of since last night.

Haven't been to Nice for some years but really liked it and the region. It seems that the Russian mafia has a strong foothold there.

I have never particularly liked Nice but my daughter and I were driving down that boulevard only 10 days ago. It is beyond sad what has happened. That we mourn - once again - with France is simply too much to bear.

Andrew Hussey's book "The French Intifada" is a very good account of the relationship between France and its Arab minorities from Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco.

Whatever the reasons for immigration from those countries from the 1960's onwards - and however well the first generation may have integrated - given the winds of Islamist change and how the second/third generations are reacting - it is beyond stupid to continue to permit large scale immigration from an unstable and violence-ridden region of the world, something Mrs Merkel (and others) might do well to realise.

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, Scotland's getting almost all income tax setting, though [I agree it's bonkers that one aspect, forget which, might be the personal allowance, isn't included given the rest is]. Also, the trend is your friend, within UK devolution. In Euroland, power only flows one way.

I do respect your opinion, though I don't share it.

MD , it is all just bits and pieces and does not allow you to actually do anything or change anything , just the minimum they can give without actually transferring any real power.

Isn't health run entirely from Holyrood, for instance?

Yes but with budgets allocated by Westminster

PlatoSaid said:

Pulpstar said:

RNC Rules committee has thrown out the NeverTrump movement rule changes to unbind delegates.

Trump goes from 1.01 shot to 1.0001 I reckon.

Well that's stumped Ms Mensch tweets for a bit - who will be her next target?

50/1 as next Tory leader on BF (although as a Bagshawe). Maybe this is a combined bet with a divorce and return to UK?

So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

This is going to end well.

SimonStClare said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Publication on a French government website is a creative way of covering up the facts.

I think the cover-up claim is based on the information released by the authorities at the time and what is being reported now.

Well, having scanned the (very long) document, I have found the passage which Ms Mensch refers to (it's about half-way through). It's a question about an unconfirmed report, which M. Christian Sainte, directeur de la police judiciaire à Paris, says he has no evidence to support.

brokenwheel said:

So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

This is going to end well.

She has no intention of keeping us in the EU. If that was her intent, it'd be simpler to just resign right now.

rottenborough said:

PlatoSaid said:

Pulpstar said:

RNC Rules committee has thrown out the NeverTrump movement rule changes to unbind delegates.

Trump goes from 1.01 shot to 1.0001 I reckon.

Well that's stumped Ms Mensch tweets for a bit - who will be her next target?

50/1 as next Tory leader on BF (although as a Bagshawe). Maybe this is a combined bet with a divorce and return to UK?

It's a terrible bet !

One thing which I don't understand about the Nice attack - surely to hire a truck like that you would need an HGV licence, wouldn't you? Yet the murderer is reported to have a had a string of convictions for serious crimes including six-months in prison for a road rage incident.

Also, can you just hire a truck like that on a credit card? And who would insure this guy?

Richard_Nabavi said:

One thing which I don't understand about the Nice attack - surely to hire a truck like that you would need an HGV licence, wouldn't you? Yet the murderer is reported to have a had a string of convictions for serious crimes including six-months in prison for a road rage incident.

Also, can you just hire a truck like that on a credit card? And who would insure this guy?

Someone else could have hired it?

More here:

According to those who knew the attacker he had only acquired his heavy vehicle licence relatively recently - within the last year to year and a half - as details emerged of the steps he would have had to have taken to hire the vehicle used in the attack.

Those would have included paying a substantial deposit of around €2,000 suggesting - as French security officials have claimed - a large degree of premeditation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/15/bastille-day-truck-driver-was-known-to-police-reports-say

How the hell did he get that licence given his record?

surbiton said:

JackW said:

Florida - GQR

Clinton 45 .. Trump 40

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000155-ebd0-dc24-ab55-fbf97c6b0001

Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.

Why's Trump gone for Pence? Hobson's choice. Over the past couple of months a lot of Republicans have publicly ruled themselves out, so presumably others will have done so privately. Pence and, for that matter, Gingrich, are both old enough that career death does not matter. Gingrich could start a fight in a phone box so by a process of elimination, it is Pence.

surbiton said:

JackW said:

Florida - GQR

Clinton 45 .. Trump 40

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000155-ebd0-dc24-ab55-fbf97c6b0001

Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.

Trump is weak with the religious.

pbr2013 said:

rottenborough said:

From last thread, on Michel Houellebecq's Submission: I would recommend anyone trying to think through the whole LePen, nativism and Muslim issue read this book. Especially if thinking about the prospect of major civil disturbances.

Disturbing and from a man many consider France's premier enfant terrible, but very thought provoking and highly plausible.

*Reconstucts my response FPT*

I was unimpressed by Houellebecq's earlier work. I thought that JG Ballard covered similar ground better in the 70s. But Submission weirded me out a bit. I always thought that a lot of islamism stems from sexual frustration/sadism. Submission, quite powerfully puts the case that the whole point of the whole business is (in the West) the restoration of patriarchy. In its proper sense, as in women and girls being returned to full chattel status, rather than in the Western feminist vision of an abstract tool of oppression. Deeply creepy.

I think also though there is a theme about the loss of religion in secular France, slow death of Catholicism (and from that the whole of traditional french civilisation), which Houellebecq worries about (at least in this book, through his character). Practicing Muslims have something many French don't, a point in their lives, seems to one of the arguments.

I'm surprised Sir Bill Cash didn't have a "Get out of the EU Plan" ready and waiting. He has been strangely quiet since the referendum.

LadyBucket said:

I'm surprised Sir Bill Cash didn't have a "Get out of the EU Plan" ready and waiting. He has been strangely quiet since the referendum.

Isn't the plan:

1 - Invent a time machine and go back to 1945
2 - Do everything differently

Missed this one, Perry has resigned as Rail Minister.

LadyBucket said:

I'm surprised Sir Bill Cash didn't have a "Get out of the EU Plan" ready and waiting. He has been strangely quiet since the referendum.

The issue with planning is invariant; it applied pre-EUref and afterwards. You can't unilaterally plan for a multilateral process. We are completely one-eyed on this topic.

We're leaving the EU, yes. Equally, each EU country is relinquishing the UK. That will affect their people, their economy and their national interest in different ways. Some might not care that much (I'm looking at you Malta), others will be profoundly affected.

We can have a top-level view of our immediate destination (several of which have been beaten to death on here), but it's really about the art of the possible.

Bottom line for me is internal planning based on WTO rules + Scottish independence. That's our worst case - our stress test if you will.

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Who to believe? The Minister for Brexit, a mere four days ago, wrote that Article 50 should be invoked at around the end of the year, and that "Some of the economic benefits of Brexit will materialise even before the probable formal departure from the EU, in around December 2018."

I'm baffled as to why the PM appointed DD to this role. Surely Liam Fox would have been a better candidate? He seems much more grounded and realistic.

I do hope all of May's appointments are because she believes said people are best for the job rather than anything else.........

I tend to agree that DD will stick around, for having come in from the cold it is clearly his last chance to be at the centre of things. Those who think he will quickly resign or be sacked don't take account of how it must feel to be a key minister, after so long out of favour.

Boris, on the other hand, will now always be just one gaffe away from finishing his own career.

And please shed a tear for all those pensioner-Brexit voters who now won't live long enough to see the UK actually outside of the EU.

RobD said:

brokenwheel said:

pbr2013 said:

saddened said:

brokenwheel said:

So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

This is going to end well.

Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?

"Sharia" May? What an idiot.

Look in the mirror.

It doesn't even rhyme with Theresa!

Wasn't meant to.

rottenborough said:

Missed this one, Perry has resigned as Rail Minister.

Everything I read said that May would have terminated her with extreme prejudice. Nothing left but a greasy spot on the Downing Street carpet.

Richard_Nabavi said:

More here:

According to those who knew the attacker he had only acquired his heavy vehicle licence relatively recently - within the last year to year and a half - as details emerged of the steps he would have had to have taken to hire the vehicle used in the attack.

Those would have included paying a substantial deposit of around €2,000 suggesting - as French security officials have claimed - a large degree of premeditation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/15/bastille-day-truck-driver-was-known-to-police-reports-say

How the hell did he get that licence given his record?

Bribery?

In many EU countries bribery is an acceptable way of dealing with issues.
Although France is not Eastern or Southern Europe, on paper at least.

Pong said:

Great article on Boris the bullshitter;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/brexit-boris-johnson-euromyths-telegraph-brussels?CMP=share_btn_tw

The same guy wrote "Dear Britain, if you stay in the EU, you will ruin our lives. Here is why"

He'll get over it soon enough.

RobD said:

Pong said:

Great article on Boris the bullshitter;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/brexit-boris-johnson-euromyths-telegraph-brussels?CMP=share_btn_tw

A totally unbiased assessment, I hope

Come now Rob, the Guardian is unswerving in its allegiance to balanced political reporting. How very dare you.

taffys said:

''I disagree , we have no say in anything at present , the 85% majority in England decide everything and anything that is to happen. We would have much more local say as a small part of a very big union than as a bit part in UK.''

That may be true of the EU as it stands at the moment, Mr G, but as we know the EU is a moveable feast that is heading towards ever closer union.

Does taffys never consider how unhappy is the dog that has lost its tail?

Speedy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

More here:

According to those who knew the attacker he had only acquired his heavy vehicle licence relatively recently - within the last year to year and a half - as details emerged of the steps he would have had to have taken to hire the vehicle used in the attack.

Those would have included paying a substantial deposit of around €2,000 suggesting - as French security officials have claimed - a large degree of premeditation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/15/bastille-day-truck-driver-was-known-to-police-reports-say

How the hell did he get that licence given his record?

Bribery?

In many EU countries bribery is an acceptable way of dealing with issues.
Although France is not Eastern or Southern Europe, on paper at least.

Depends how much credit he had on his card. He wouldn't have to put a pile of crisp 50 Euro notes on the counter. It's not as if he expected to have to pay it back.

There's also a strong chance the card was bent. If he was a low level criminal bent cards aren't exactly difficult to get.

Trump needs a new logo designer, or it's what he has in mind:

https://twitter.com/edatpost/status/753983136640405504

saddened said:

brokenwheel said:

pbr2013 said:

saddened said:

brokenwheel said:

So Sharia May's gambit to keep us in the EU is to make us hostage to the SNP?

This is going to end well.

Have you actually read the full quote May, made? Or are you jumping on the same band waggon as the other room temperature IQ, mouth breathers?

"Sharia" May? What an idiot.

Look in the mirror.

Post the full quote that you think entitles you to call her Sharia May. Having read and understood it, it should be no trouble to find. Top tip don't use the Briebart version. Use the real one.

She supports its existence, I couldn't give a fuck about platitudes.

JohnLilburne said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

More here:

According to those who knew the attacker he had only acquired his heavy vehicle licence relatively recently - within the last year to year and a half - as details emerged of the steps he would have had to have taken to hire the vehicle used in the attack.

Those would have included paying a substantial deposit of around €2,000 suggesting - as French security officials have claimed - a large degree of premeditation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/15/bastille-day-truck-driver-was-known-to-police-reports-say

How the hell did he get that licence given his record?

I expect he took the French equivalent of the HGV test. In the UK I don't think there is anything to stop someone with a non-driving related conviction from getting any sort of driving license. In any case, his only conviction appears to be a minor one.

Telegraph suggests he is a career criminal who was "known to the police for assault with a weapon, domestic violence, threats and robbery"

"A terrorist who used a hired lorry to kill at least 84 people in a rampage during Bastille Day celebrations in Nice has been named as a convicted criminal well known to the police for armed attacks.
Tunisian-born Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel - described as a "weird loner" who "became depressed" when his wife left him - was a French passport holder who lived in the Riviera city and was regularly in trouble with the law."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/nice-terror-attack-driver-who-killed-84-on-french-riviera-was-cr/

Speedy said:

Trump needs a new logo designer, or it's what he has in mind:

https://twitter.com/edatpost/status/753983136640405504

Q. How much is trumppence?
A. As much as you want it to be dude, as much as you want it to be.

paulyork64 said:

TGOHF said:

French terrorist had just been released from prison.

Given the Uk report on prisons being turned into madrassas there is an obvious point that needs addressed.

yes, no more releasing!

He wasn't a terrorist prior to releasing though, so it is tricky..!

May suggests no Article 50 until a deal regarding Scotland can done, maybe some form of EFTA plus

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

surbiton said:

JackW said:

Florida - GQR

Clinton 45 .. Trump 40

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000155-ebd0-dc24-ab55-fbf97c6b0001

Florida is consistently giving Hillary good numbers. Yet, barely 16 years ago, it was a paper-thin swing state as we all know.

I am not sure why Trump is going for Pence. He would have won Indiana anyway.

Trump is weak with the religious.

I think Trump went with Pence to:

A. Kill NeverTrump.
B. Double down on the Rust Belt strategy.

Anyway Trump has had a good July in the polls so far, in Florida the last 3 credible polls (Non-Rasmussen, Fox, Marist or other partisan ones) have him with leads of 6, 5 and 2 points.
And Iowa and Maine have moved to a tie for him.

The only area where Trump is not advancing but going backwards is Colorado.

If the election was last week Trump would probably have won.

Based on my calculations on present polling Hillary would win a narrow EC victory, winning Virginia and Colorado but losing Ohio and Florida

paulyork64 said:

I,m sure Theresa would love to sign up Scotland to agreeing on whatever Brexit route we go down. but I'm also sure it's just politicking and Nicola is too smart not to see that. T cant let Scotland have a veto on any deals but to openly ignore them would just stoke up the calls for Sindy2. So go have a chat with N. and when it almost certainly gets nowhere you say you tried your best and if she has levered a couple of percent from the Sindy YES column it's mission accomplished.

Finally an intelligent response. It is pretty obvious that it was just round 1 and a lot of water will go under the bridge before we know who comes out best and whether it ends the union or not. May at least is more intelligent than the Bullingdon duffers and keeps her powder dry rather than running away at the mouth .