politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef
Comments
-
Afternoon GIN, still wriggling yet but in its death throes for sure.GIN1138 said:
"The Union" has already gone?DecrepitJohnL said:
Unless Theresa May wishes to go down in history as the Prime Minister who lost the union, then yes, Scotland matters and in the current climate, that means Nicola matters.Sean_F said:Does it matter, particularly, whether or not Nicola Sturgeon approves the terms of any deal?
0 -
Why give up a position of maximum power? For the first time ever the UK really matters to the politics of the EU.edmundintokyo said:
Then after that X has presidential elections and Y is having a referendum then there are the European Parliament elections coming up then you'd better see what happens with TTIP etc etc etc etc. The government obviously don't want to Brexit, maybe they'll just keep putting it off.grabcocque said:Makes sense to leave A50 till after the French presidential elections at least. Hollande is sitting duck. Merkel might survive the German federal elections, but even she might be unexpectedly weak after.
So no point starting negotiations in earnest till then.
0 -
I've not spoken with that many people today as working from home, but of those I have, the general mood (besides shock at the nature of the attack) is a lack of surprise that it's happened. Most people were expecting something to happen at the euros and were surprised that it didn't.PlatoSaid said:
As a resident of Paris - what's the local mood re Nice?Paristonda said:
Boris is fine, he's a secret remainer anyway he won't care what deal we get. Fox and Davis are both leadership losers brought in from the cold by TM, if they aren't willing to go along with what TM wants they are easily replaceable.Theuniondivvie said:
It is VERY hard to read what May really wants. Her remarks on not invoking A50 until Scotland agrees (indicating EEA type brexit) flies in the face of her cabinet brexit appointments (indicating Full English Brexit).
Feels very pessimistic here - which may be reflected in those earlier comments about 'living with terrorism'. Wonder if it's approaching a similar state to the US's mass shootings, where sad words are exchanged and nothing ever changes, and people become 'used' to it.0 -
Pre-vote, Carney probably overstepped his remit and strayed into politicsMaxPB said:
It feels like people are blaming Mark Carney for the government not having a suitable fiscal and economic policy re Brexit. It isn't up to Carney to make Brexit work, his job is to ensure the safety of the UK banking sector and to keep the taps open until the government come up with policies to take over. He has done both very well without having to resort to interest rate cuts or extra QE just yet. That's a job well done.felix said:How appalling to have a BoE governor who looks after the money in the BoE!
Additionally in the speech post Brexit he scared the market unnecessarily - around the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
Overall still a goodish Guv'nor, but not a great one.0 -
Check your Vanilla Mail.John_M said:
I like OpenEurope's suggestion that rather than just repeating Cameron's failed renegotiation and closing in on SM/FoM trade offs, we open it up completely and talk about the whole subject of European trade, intelligence, security and cooperation across the board. Wide, not narrow.Theuniondivvie said:
I wonder if May is absolutely sure herself? There seems to be a lot of 'wait and see' floating in the zeitgeist.Paristonda said:
Boris is fine, he's a secret remainer anyway he won't care what deal we get. Fox and Davis are both leadership losers brought in from the cold by TM, if they aren't willing to go along with what TM wants they are easily replaceable.Theuniondivvie said:
It is VERY hard to read what May really wants. Her remarks on not invoking A50 until Scotland agrees (indicating EEA type brexit) flies in the face of her cabinet brexit appointments (indicating Full English Brexit).
It would probably suit both sides if the UK took more responsibility for European security - increased UK defence capability would suit our more global role, and make us more interesting to the US. We could even support the upcoming EU army.
It made sense to me.0 -
Lol. since Leavers have never clarified the kind of Brexit they want you can't realistically talk about compromise nor assume that all 17m voted for your 'version'.taffys said:''It will only happen if it is seen as a compromise that is in the best interest of the whole nation, but it must guarantee sovereignty and some action on free movement.''
I don;t see why Brexiteers should compromise to keep remainers happy.
If it had been a narrow remainer victory, the feelings of leavers would have been totally ignored thereafter.0 -
No , just a right wing Tory buffoongrabcocque said:
How can you possibly no that you mus be a psychic or sutin.Richard_Nabavi said:
I can tell you, for free and for 100% certain, that she won't, whatever it is.Sean_F said:Does it matter, particularly, whether or not Nicola Sturgeon approves the terms of any deal?
0 -
I will have one of what you are drinkingrunnymede said:
The reason the SNP are so worried about this is because Brexit makes their 'independence' quest harder. 'Independence' within the same multinational economic and political framework that the rest of the UK is in is an independence-lite option that can win over middling Scots.saddened said:
Scotland is not going to be given a veto. As part of the UK, in voting terms they are insignificant.FF43 said:
Presumably the deal is that the Scottish government can't prevent Brexit but does have a veto over the replacement deal.JonathanD said:
What specific benefits from Scotland being part of the EU does the SNP want to keep?Theuniondivvie said:
Membership of the Common Fisheries policy? Freedom of Movement? Tariff free trade?
Hopefully it will drive them to have another referendum, but I doubt Nicola, will ever reach a high enough level of certainty to raise the courage to try and trigger one.
'Independence' meaning a harder border with rUK and accepting the euro, Schengen and all the political integration to come is not going to fly.
Getting out the CFP will conceivably be a problem for the SNP too, ultimately, in the NE/
Brexit strengthens the union if we plough ahead with it.0 -
The difference is that in the US the legislature, with overwhelming public support, has deliberately and repeatedly refused to take the obvious and (in any other democracy on earth) uncontroversial measures which would mitigate the risk. So it's not that nothing ever changes, it's that they don't want anything to change.Paristonda said:...Wonder if it's approaching a similar state to the US's mass shootings, where sad words are exchanged and nothing ever changes, and people become 'used' to it.
France, sadly, hasn't got such an easy option.0 -
It was 52 - 48 and that is very narrow. It isn't a case of Brexiteers keeping remainer's happy, it is the need to be able to seek sensible compromise otherwise it will fail as the 52 - 48 turns into 40 - 60 against.taffys said:''It will only happen if it is seen as a compromise that is in the best interest of the whole nation, but it must guarantee sovereignty and some action on free movement.''
I don;t see why Brexiteers should compromise to keep remainers happy.
If it had been a narrow remainer victory, the feelings of leavers would have been totally ignored thereafter.
I want Brexit but some on here really worry me so much, that each side will become polarised and the whole deal will be lost in never ending turmoil0 -
BBC - Arrest over Angela Eagle death threats.
The 44-year-old was arrested in Paisley, Renfrewshire after allegedly making threats to kill the Wallasey MP in an email, Merseyside Police said.
e-mail ?
0 -
Always good to get predictions from the 'put all your hollybags money on Zac' faction.TGOHF said:May is going to grin-f**k the Nats into digging their own political graves - bind them into the agreement by inflating their egos.
Exactly what Cam did to Clegg.
Chortle.0 -
Yes, I'd agree with that. I think the risks of Brexit wrt to monetary policy are lesser than the risk to fiscal policy. The banks have been tested for up to a 30% fall in house prices and the failure of a Lehman sized institution simultaneously. All UK banks passed iirc. People are getting on Carney's back because they disagree with him about the economic implications of Brexit, at least in the short term. You and I both know that the uncertainty caused in the short term is likely to see a slowing of the economy and a reduction in house prices, we both voted to leave anyway. The governor saw the same risks and probably voted to remain. Our priorities for Brexit were different to the governor's, but he wasn't and isn't wrong about the short term economic implications of leaving the EU.Charles said:
Pre-vote, Carney probably overstepped his remit and strayed into politicsMaxPB said:
It feels like people are blaming Mark Carney for the government not having a suitable fiscal and economic policy re Brexit. It isn't up to Carney to make Brexit work, his job is to ensure the safety of the UK banking sector and to keep the taps open until the government come up with policies to take over. He has done both very well without having to resort to interest rate cuts or extra QE just yet. That's a job well done.felix said:How appalling to have a BoE governor who looks after the money in the BoE!
Additionally in the speech post Brexit he scared the market unnecessarily - around the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
Overall still a goodish Guv'nor, but not a great one.0 -
As Carney said, he had a duty, pre-Brexit vote, to assess the BoE view on the risks to having the vote and actually leaving. These were statements of opinion and not politically motivated. His statement on future interest rate cuts were a signal for the future which were emphasised in the MPC minutes. The headbangers have it in for Carey because he did not deny the truth that uncertainty has a downside even if only temporary.Charles said:
Pre-vote, Carney probably overstepped his remit and strayed into politicsMaxPB said:
It feels like people are blaming Mark Carney for the government not having a suitable fiscal and economic policy re Brexit. It isn't up to Carney to make Brexit work, his job is to ensure the safety of the UK banking sector and to keep the taps open until the government come up with policies to take over. He has done both very well without having to resort to interest rate cuts or extra QE just yet. That's a job well done.felix said:How appalling to have a BoE governor who looks after the money in the BoE!
Additionally in the speech post Brexit he scared the market unnecessarily - around the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
Overall still a goodish Guv'nor, but not a great one.
0 -
That's not as different to Europe as it appears on first glance. In America the right to bear arms is a fundamental freedom guaranteed by the constitution. In Europe too free movement is a constitutional fundamental freedom. Maintaining border security is (in any other democracy on earth) an uncontroversial measure that would mitigate the risk but Europe is no more willing to consider it than America is willing to consider gun control.Richard_Nabavi said:
The difference is that in the US the legislature, with overwhelming public support, has deliberately and repeatedly refused to take the obvious and (in any other democracy on earth) uncontroversial measures which would mitigate the risk. So it's not that nothing ever changes, it's that they don't want anything to change.Paristonda said:...Wonder if it's approaching a similar state to the US's mass shootings, where sad words are exchanged and nothing ever changes, and people become 'used' to it.
0 -
What ticks me off more about this kind of thing is that we get a surfeit of "reaction" (western leaders, organisations and pop stars condemn the attack and offer their sympathies - big surprise there!!) and eyewitness reports (that can only be partial and fragmentary, and by this stage we now know much more about what actually happened), and not enough big-picture overview and analysis. Plus all the other stuff that's happening across the world - plenty of things going on that would have deservedly hogged headlines in their own right and shouldn't be completely neglected.Big_G_NorthWales said:The attack last night in Nice was devastating and upsetting but both the BBC and Sky have gone into overdrive with constant repetitive reports and witness interviews at the total absence of anything else. What is it with our broadcaster's that make them obsess so much with a story. I am as upset by this act as anyone but we do need some balance in news coverage.
0 -
Great analogyPhilip_Thompson said:
That's not as different to Europe as it appears on first glance. In America the right to bear arms is a fundamental freedom guaranteed by the constitution. In Europe too free movement is a constitutional fundamental freedom. Maintaining border security is (in any other democracy on earth) an uncontroversial measure that would mitigate the risk but Europe is no more willing to consider it than America is willing to consider gun control.Richard_Nabavi said:
The difference is that in the US the legislature, with overwhelming public support, has deliberately and repeatedly refused to take the obvious and (in any other democracy on earth) uncontroversial measures which would mitigate the risk. So it's not that nothing ever changes, it's that they don't want anything to change.Paristonda said:...Wonder if it's approaching a similar state to the US's mass shootings, where sad words are exchanged and nothing ever changes, and people become 'used' to it.
0 -
''The difference is that in the US the legislature, with overwhelming public support, has deliberately and repeatedly refused to take the obvious and (in any other democracy on earth) uncontroversial measures which would mitigate the risk. So it's not that nothing ever changes, it's that they don't want anything to change. ''
Perhaps Americans take the view that banning guns would mean disarming law abiding people whilst the criminals in the country keep all of theirs.
And in many parts of that huge country, law abiding people with guns are effectively the law.0 -
No more in its death throes than Canada's union is. A second failed Indyref will kill off independence as surely as Quebec's second failure has done.malcolmg said:
Afternoon GIN, still wriggling yet but in its death throes for sure.GIN1138 said:
"The Union" has already gone?DecrepitJohnL said:
Unless Theresa May wishes to go down in history as the Prime Minister who lost the union, then yes, Scotland matters and in the current climate, that means Nicola matters.Sean_F said:Does it matter, particularly, whether or not Nicola Sturgeon approves the terms of any deal?
0 -
For sure it will depend on the deal, but anyone who thinks Westminster can just do what they want is pretty stupid , which as you will have seen by some of the infantile comments is many of the frothers on here.Philip_Thompson said:
She will be asked I'm sure, but ultimately she can't just stubbornly veto every proposal. So hopefully if she is serious and co-operates then she can negotiate the best deal that is in Scotland's interests, if she refuses to countenance any form of Brexit then we should just negotiate the best deal in England's interests.malcolmg said:
5 million people in Scotland care plenty and we will see the outcome if she is not asked for sure.grabcocque said:Makes sense to leave A50 till after the French presidential elections at least. Hollande is sitting duck. Merkel might survive the German federal elections, but even she might be unexpectedly weak after.
So no point starting negotiations in earnest till then.
And as to the Sturgeon question, who cares? Nobody will ask her to "accept" the negotiated settlement. That's not her job nor will it ever be.0 -
Err, no. The EU free movement rules have zilch to do with this.Philip_Thompson said:That's not as different to Europe as it appears on first glance. In America the right to bear arms is a fundamental freedom guaranteed by the constitution. In Europe too free movement is a constitutional fundamental freedom. Maintaining border security is (in any other democracy on earth) an uncontroversial measure that would mitigate the risk but Europe is no more willing to consider it than America is willing to consider gun control.
0 -
there has not been one though has therePhilip_Thompson said:
No more in its death throes than Canada's union is. A second failed Indyref will kill off independence as surely as Quebec's second failure has done.malcolmg said:
Afternoon GIN, still wriggling yet but in its death throes for sure.GIN1138 said:
"The Union" has already gone?DecrepitJohnL said:
Unless Theresa May wishes to go down in history as the Prime Minister who lost the union, then yes, Scotland matters and in the current climate, that means Nicola matters.Sean_F said:Does it matter, particularly, whether or not Nicola Sturgeon approves the terms of any deal?
0 -
England 153/4 at tea at Lords.0
-
2 for 2 "man not ball" posts from our resident Nats suggests I hit the spot.Theuniondivvie said:
Always good to get predictions from the 'put all your hollybags money on Zac' faction.TGOHF said:May is going to grin-f**k the Nats into digging their own political graves - bind them into the agreement by inflating their egos.
Exactly what Cam did to Clegg.
Chortle.0 -
They do take that view. Bonkers, isn't it?taffys said:Perhaps Americans take the view that banning guns would mean disarming law abiding people whilst the criminals in the country keep all of theirs..
0 -
''For sure it will depend on the deal, but anyone who thinks Westminster can just do what they want is pretty stupid , which as you will have seen by some of the infantile comments is many of the frothers on here. ''
All the same, I'm struggling to see what the ultimate goal of the SNP is. An independent Scotland would surely rejoin the EU, which would certainly stretch the meaning of the word 'independent'. Arguably Scotland would be less independent than it is now.
0 -
Can I take that as support for a 2nd Indy referendum asap?Philip_Thompson said:
No more in its death throes than Canada's union is. A second failed Indyref will kill off independence as surely as Quebec's second failure has done.malcolmg said:
Afternoon GIN, still wriggling yet but in its death throes for sure.GIN1138 said:
"The Union" has already gone?DecrepitJohnL said:
Unless Theresa May wishes to go down in history as the Prime Minister who lost the union, then yes, Scotland matters and in the current climate, that means Nicola matters.Sean_F said:Does it matter, particularly, whether or not Nicola Sturgeon approves the terms of any deal?
0 -
Exactly so. I'm a leaver and don't agree with the version of leave some others have. The vote was leave with no details, the fight for what type is still up for grabs.msadly, may looks like she'll go for a harder Brexit.felix said:
Lol. since Leavers have never clarified the kind of Brexit they want you can't realistically talk about compromise nor assume that all 17m voted for your 'version'.taffys said:''It will only happen if it is seen as a compromise that is in the best interest of the whole nation, but it must guarantee sovereignty and some action on free movement.''
I don;t see why Brexiteers should compromise to keep remainers happy.
If it had been a narrow remainer victory, the feelings of leavers would have been totally ignored thereafter.0 -
Yes they do.Richard_Nabavi said:
Err, no. The EU free movement rules have zilch to do with this.Philip_Thompson said:That's not as different to Europe as it appears on first glance. In America the right to bear arms is a fundamental freedom guaranteed by the constitution. In Europe too free movement is a constitutional fundamental freedom. Maintaining border security is (in any other democracy on earth) an uncontroversial measure that would mitigate the risk but Europe is no more willing to consider it than America is willing to consider gun control.
0 -
The photo of Sturgeon and May together at Bute House should give cause for optimism that these two are serious leaders who want the best for their Countries and will work constructively together in the interests of both Scotland and RUK.malcolmg said:
For sure it will depend on the deal, but anyone who thinks Westminster can just do what they want is pretty stupid , which as you will have seen by some of the infantile comments is many of the frothers on here.Philip_Thompson said:
She will be asked I'm sure, but ultimately she can't just stubbornly veto every proposal. So hopefully if she is serious and co-operates then she can negotiate the best deal that is in Scotland's interests, if she refuses to countenance any form of Brexit then we should just negotiate the best deal in England's interests.malcolmg said:
5 million people in Scotland care plenty and we will see the outcome if she is not asked for sure.grabcocque said:Makes sense to leave A50 till after the French presidential elections at least. Hollande is sitting duck. Merkel might survive the German federal elections, but even she might be unexpectedly weak after.
So no point starting negotiations in earnest till then.
And as to the Sturgeon question, who cares? Nobody will ask her to "accept" the negotiated settlement. That's not her job nor will it ever be.
I am genuinely hopeful that they will both give us grown up politics0 -
They do take that view. Bonkers, isn't it?
I think its perfectly logical. Ban guns and its open season on middle class Americans in isolated communities or small towns where local law enforcement is hours away.
You can see the 'awaydays' for the big city gangs right now.
0 -
Mr. Taffys, indeed, that perspective seems bloody odd to me.
On that note, Mr. G, if Scotland left the UK on a joining the EU ticket, would you join/support a Scottish version of UKIP to get Scotland out of the EU?0 -
Please elucidate on your 'less independent than it is now' argument.taffys said:''For sure it will depend on the deal, but anyone who thinks Westminster can just do what they want is pretty stupid , which as you will have seen by some of the infantile comments is many of the frothers on here. ''
All the same, I'm struggling to see what the ultimate goal of the SNP is. An independent Scotland would surely rejoin the EU, which would certainly stretch the meaning of the word 'independent'. Arguably Scotland would be less independent than it is now.0 -
Carney's guidanceMaxPB said:
His forward guidance is one of the reasons we've had such a solid economy. At the time it gave us a very solid foundation to grow from. Carney is doing a decent job. Removing the governor at a time like this would be suicidal. Hopefully he can be convinced to continue after 2018, but idiots like Jenkin make it tougher. ....Like it or not, Brexit creates economic uncertainty. The governor is right to point that out, to not do so would be farcical. You call it "talking down the economy" I call it realism. I voted to leave, but was under no impression that it would be easy or with no cost..PlatoSaid said:
Calming? You're kidding? He's done zip to help our economy and oodles of talking it down.John_M said:Good afternoon all.
FPT:
1. I'm a Mark Carney fan. He should stay. He's not perfect (I love the 'unreliable boyfriend' moniker) but he's very competent and calming.
2. Getting obsessed about Obama's choice of words is getting very close to tinfoil territory. Sad to see on PB. The US has always had its Anglophile/phobe split. We may or may not be at the front/back of the queue/line.
3. We project anything we like on to our opposition re EUref. In the interests of fairness, I'm sure there are a body of Leavers who can't wait to deport all the muslims, based on some fairly loopy half-logic. How many? No idea. PB is awash with free trade sovereignistas. Can't believe we're representative of the populace at large.
On topic. May originally said end of year. Davis has said end of the year, beginning of next. Don't think we'll get away with anything longer.
Hence the pissed off *unreliable boyfriend* moniker.
I'm AMAZED you think this is either big or clever behaviour.
2013 = When jobless rate reaches 7% then rates are going up. He broke that one. Now at 5%.
2015 = Expect rates to rise early in 2016. They did not.
2016 = If we Brexit we will have to increase rates. He did not.
2016 = In next few rates we will have to lower the rate. He did not.
What part of f**king forward guidance is any one supposed to believe?
0 -
You really are delusionalTGOHF said:
2 for 2 "man not ball" posts from our resident Nats suggests I hit the spot.Theuniondivvie said:
Always good to get predictions from the 'put all your hollybags money on Zac' faction.TGOHF said:May is going to grin-f**k the Nats into digging their own political graves - bind them into the agreement by inflating their egos.
Exactly what Cam did to Clegg.
Chortle.0 -
Don't hold your breathTheuniondivvie said:
Please elucidate on your 'less independent than it is now' argument.taffys said:''For sure it will depend on the deal, but anyone who thinks Westminster can just do what they want is pretty stupid , which as you will have seen by some of the infantile comments is many of the frothers on here. ''
All the same, I'm struggling to see what the ultimate goal of the SNP is. An independent Scotland would surely rejoin the EU, which would certainly stretch the meaning of the word 'independent'. Arguably Scotland would be less independent than it is now.0 -
Sure sure, that's the argument, albeit a feeble one (most Americans live in large cities and suburbs, but still are allowed to have guns). More to the point as regards mass shootings, they even refuse to take the most obvious measures to prevent nutjobs buying (perfectly legally) automatic weapons. It's entirely up to them, but clearly they don't regard preventing these mass shootings as a priority.taffys said:They do take that view. Bonkers, isn't it?
I think its perfectly logical. Ban guns and its open season on middle class Americans in isolated communities or small towns where local law enforcement is hours away.
You can see the 'awaydays' for the big city gangs right now.0 -
BF now have a market up for next Con leader. Only £140 so far. I think this is interesting book, as at moment it can be see as 'who takes over (permanently) if something terrible happens and May resigns'. Or, you can view it as who do you punt on at say 50/1 who will be leader in about a decade.0
-
No, it's a completely shite analogy, given that closing EU borders would not have made the slightest difference to the likelihood or outcome of this particular attack.PlatoSaid said:
Great analogyPhilip_Thompson said:
That's not as different to Europe as it appears on first glance. In America the right to bear arms is a fundamental freedom guaranteed by the constitution. In Europe too free movement is a constitutional fundamental freedom. Maintaining border security is (in any other democracy on earth) an uncontroversial measure that would mitigate the risk but Europe is no more willing to consider it than America is willing to consider gun control.Richard_Nabavi said:
The difference is that in the US the legislature, with overwhelming public support, has deliberately and repeatedly refused to take the obvious and (in any other democracy on earth) uncontroversial measures which would mitigate the risk. So it's not that nothing ever changes, it's that they don't want anything to change.Paristonda said:...Wonder if it's approaching a similar state to the US's mass shootings, where sad words are exchanged and nothing ever changes, and people become 'used' to it.
0 -
MD I would not be aghast at being in the UK, I ma interested in best interests of Scotland and I believe that would be better served by an independent Scotland in the EU than being a bit part in UK being forced to take England's position 100% of the time whether good or bad.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Taffys, indeed, that perspective seems bloody odd to me.
On that note, Mr. G, if Scotland left the UK on a joining the EU ticket, would you join/support a Scottish version of UKIP to get Scotland out of the EU?
At least in the EU you get to make some local decisions and spend your own money how you wish.0 -
We can but hope, it would be a welcome change from normal Westminster practice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The photo of Sturgeon and May together at Bute House should give cause for optimism that these two are serious leaders who want the best for their Countries and will work constructively together in the interests of both Scotland and RUK.malcolmg said:
For sure it will depend on the deal, but anyone who thinks Westminster can just do what they want is pretty stupid , which as you will have seen by some of the infantile comments is many of the frothers on here.Philip_Thompson said:
She will be asked I'm sure, but ultimately she can't just stubbornly veto every proposal. So hopefully if she is serious and co-operates then she can negotiate the best deal that is in Scotland's interests, if she refuses to countenance any form of Brexit then we should just negotiate the best deal in England's interests.malcolmg said:
5 million people in Scotland care plenty and we will see the outcome if she is not asked for sure.grabcocque said:Makes sense to leave A50 till after the French presidential elections at least. Hollande is sitting duck. Merkel might survive the German federal elections, but even she might be unexpectedly weak after.
So no point starting negotiations in earnest till then.
And as to the Sturgeon question, who cares? Nobody will ask her to "accept" the negotiated settlement. That's not her job nor will it ever be.
I am genuinely hopeful that they will both give us grown up politics0 -
Please elucidate on your 'less independent than it is now' argument.
Well the EU is bent on ever closer union, something Scotland would be asked to sign up to as a condition of rejoining?
That would be less independent ( or you could certainly argue that it would).
I wonder whether if, given the choice, Scotland might go for a Norway or Switzerland solution? Or even Iceland? Independent from the EU and England?0 -
BTW, can I just say how much Yokal's description of Corbyinite ultras as "brownshirts" yesterday resonated with me. That seems to be exactly what is going on.0
-
Mr. G, must say I think that's a slightly odd position given there's increasing devolution within the UK [except the England...], and increasing centralisation within the EU, but there we are.
Edited extra bit: except for*. Not 'the'.
Feeling oddly hungry [gluttony is the sin with which I've tended to struggle the least]. May be related to finally doing some exercise yesterday.0 -
I disagree , we have no say in anything at present , the 85% majority in England decide everything and anything that is to happen. We would have much more local say as a small part of a very big union than as a bit part in UK.taffys said:''For sure it will depend on the deal, but anyone who thinks Westminster can just do what they want is pretty stupid , which as you will have seen by some of the infantile comments is many of the frothers on here. ''
All the same, I'm struggling to see what the ultimate goal of the SNP is. An independent Scotland would surely rejoin the EU, which would certainly stretch the meaning of the word 'independent'. Arguably Scotland would be less independent than it is now.0 -
And there won't be one anytime soon, for exactly that reason. Another NO would finish the SNP, bye bye ministerial cars, salaries and pensions.malcolmg said:
there has not been one though has therePhilip_Thompson said:
No more in its death throes than Canada's union is. A second failed Indyref will kill off independence as surely as Quebec's second failure has done.malcolmg said:
Afternoon GIN, still wriggling yet but in its death throes for sure.GIN1138 said:
"The Union" has already gone?DecrepitJohnL said:
Unless Theresa May wishes to go down in history as the Prime Minister who lost the union, then yes, Scotland matters and in the current climate, that means Nicola matters.Sean_F said:Does it matter, particularly, whether or not Nicola Sturgeon approves the terms of any deal?
0 -
*CLAPS* ;-)MaxPB said:
It's nothing to do with my personal pay packet. As it happens I might be moving to Switzerland anyway.PlatoSaid said:
And like others here - you're a City centred chap.
The vast majority of the country aren't so interested in your personal pay packets. We want a good balanced economy - not one that suits ones who already earn a huge living.
What matters is having the right person for the job, I'm certain that Carney is the right person. Everyone else I know also thinks that. You don't like him becauae he backed remain. He's a central banker, they will always back economic security over uncertainty. The leave vote makes his job of holding the UK banking system together much more difficult. Yet he's managing it with great confidence and very few problems. The £150bn stimulus was a great innovation that the likes of Merve wouldn't have come up with, the forward guidance on reactivating the fund for lending is another one that will help banks continue to have confidence to keep lending to UK businesses.
Carney has produced tangible monetary policies since the vote that will keep the banking sector healthy and keep our show on the road until we have a firm policy position. He has done a good job, what you call negativity is realism, nothing more. You don't like that he is calling Brexit as economically sub-optimal. Well it is and I say that having voted and campaigned for leave.0 -
Just listened to his "economic case for brexit" speech.GIN1138 said:
David Davis is going to surprise a lot of people I think. He'll stick with this to the bitter end.Jonathan said:David Davis is definitely going to resign at some point. It's how he rolls. Only a matter of time. Wonder what it will be over.
Surprised he has lasted so long.
Brexit is his one and only chance to shape the countries destiny for decades, maybe centuries to come... And he'll be able to do it while Cameron looks on from the sidelines.
This is an entirely different scenario to when he was the "runt of litter" in Cameron and Osborne's shadow cabinet.
Boris and Fox may leave but Davis will still be "there" in 2020, IMO.
http://www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-mp-delivers-speech-on-the-economic-case-for-brexit/
One point that struck me, was that he thinks the 2017 elections in France and Germany actually help us. As the Brexit deal, and the consequences for French/German exporters, will be a feature in their elections.0 -
It's not bonkers at all. There are parts of the States where, if I lived there, I would have firearms. Ditto SA.Richard_Nabavi said:
They do take that view. Bonkers, isn't it?taffys said:Perhaps Americans take the view that banning guns would mean disarming law abiding people whilst the criminals in the country keep all of theirs..
0 -
"Why targeting Nice for a terrorist attack was not surprising
The idyllic Mediterranean beach town has a severe problem of Islamist radicalisation"
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21702282-idyllic-mediterranean-beach-town-has-severe-problem-islamist-radicalisation-why0 -
MD, the devolution is just the small petty things that matter little. On all big ticket items we have no say , the arithmetic means what England wants is what UK gets. Even in a centralised EU we would make local decisions.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, must say I think that's a slightly odd position given there's increasing devolution within the UK [except the England...], and increasing centralisation within the EU, but there we are.
Edited extra bit: except for*. Not 'the'.
Feeling oddly hungry [gluttony is the sin with which I've tended to struggle the least]. May be related to finally doing some exercise yesterday.0 -
RNC Rules committee has thrown out the NeverTrump movement rule changes to unbind delegates.
Trump goes from 1.01 shot to 1.0001 I reckon.0 -
Less independent than currently wherein we cede control over 2/3 of our taxation, 3/4 of welfare policy, foreign policy, defence, broadcasting, trade and industry, nuclear energy, oil, coal, gas and electricity, the constitution and immigration?taffys said:Please elucidate on your 'less independent than it is now' argument.
Well the EU is bent on ever closer union, something Scotland would be asked to sign up to as a condition of rejoining?
That would be less independent ( or you could certainly argue that it would).
I wonder whether if, given the choice, Scotland might go for a Norway or Switzerland solution? Or even Iceland? Independent from the EU and England?
I have to disagree.0 -
Well quite, he's no oracle at all.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Carney's guidanceMaxPB said:
His forward guidance is one of the reasons we've had such a solid economy. At the time it gave us a very solid foundation to grow from. Carney is doing a decent job. Removing the governor at a time like this would be suicidal. Hopefully he can be convinced to continue after 2018, but idiots like Jenkin make it tougher. ....Like it or not, Brexit creates economic uncertainty. The governor is right to point that out, to not do so would be farcical. You call it "talking down the economy" I call it realism. I voted to leave, but was under no impression that it would be easy or with no cost..PlatoSaid said:
Calming? You're kidding? He's done zip to help our economy and oodles of talking it down.John_M said:Good afternoon all.
FPT:
1. I'm a Mark Carney fan. He should stay. He's not perfect (I love the 'unreliable boyfriend' moniker) but he's very competent and calming.
2. Getting obsessed about Obama's choice of words is getting very close to tinfoil territory. Sad to see on PB. The US has always had its Anglophile/phobe split. We may or may not be at the front/back of the queue/line.
3. We project anything we like on to our opposition re EUref. In the interests of fairness, I'm sure there are a body of Leavers who can't wait to deport all the muslims, based on some fairly loopy half-logic. How many? No idea. PB is awash with free trade sovereignistas. Can't believe we're representative of the populace at large.
On topic. May originally said end of year. Davis has said end of the year, beginning of next. Don't think we'll get away with anything longer.
Hence the pissed off *unreliable boyfriend* moniker.
I'm AMAZED you think this is either big or clever behaviour.
2013 = When jobless rate reaches 7% then rates are going up. He broke that one. Now at 5%.
2015 = Expect rates to rise early in 2016. They did not.
2016 = If we Brexit we will have to increase rates. He did not.
2016 = In next few rates we will have to lower the rate. He did not.
What part of f**king forward guidance is any one supposed to believe?
Being Canadian isn't Get Out Clause.0 -
Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.0
-
We do get to chose road signs now thoughTheuniondivvie said:
Less independent than currently wherein we cede control over 2/3 of our taxation, 3/4 of welfare policy, foreign policy, defence, broadcasting, trade and industry, nuclear energy, oil, coal, gas and electricity, the constitution and immigration?taffys said:Please elucidate on your 'less independent than it is now' argument.
Well the EU is bent on ever closer union, something Scotland would be asked to sign up to as a condition of rejoining?
That would be less independent ( or you could certainly argue that it would).
I wonder whether if, given the choice, Scotland might go for a Norway or Switzerland solution? Or even Iceland? Independent from the EU and England?
I have to disagree.0 -
''I disagree , we have no say in anything at present , the 85% majority in England decide everything and anything that is to happen. We would have much more local say as a small part of a very big union than as a bit part in UK.''
That may be true of the EU as it stands at the moment, Mr G, but as we know the EU is a moveable feast that is heading towards ever closer union.0 -
The dogsh*t collectors will wear kilts. Good stuff.malcolmg said:
MD, the devolution is just the small petty things that matter little. On all big ticket items we have no say , the arithmetic means what England wants is what UK gets. Even in a centralised EU we would make local decisions.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, must say I think that's a slightly odd position given there's increasing devolution within the UK [except the England...], and increasing centralisation within the EU, but there we are.
Edited extra bit: except for*. Not 'the'.
Feeling oddly hungry [gluttony is the sin with which I've tended to struggle the least]. May be related to finally doing some exercise yesterday.0 -
It's ghastly. I used to spend a bit of time in Nice in the 90s. I went back recently and the whole charecter of the place had changed. Walking around you felt like you had to look over your shoulder. And the beurs had a swagger you didn't see in the 90s. Before anyone accuses me of racism, most of my friends there are of Lebanese heritage. We still await news of someone who hasn't been heard of since last night.AndyJS said:"Why targeting Nice for a terrorist attack was not surprising
The idyllic Mediterranean beach town has a severe problem of Islamist radicalisation"
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21702282-idyllic-mediterranean-beach-town-has-severe-problem-islamist-radicalisation-why0 -
Mr. G, Scotland's getting almost all income tax setting, though [I agree it's bonkers that one aspect, forget which, might be the personal allowance, isn't included given the rest is]. Also, the trend is your friend, within UK devolution. In Euroland, power only flows one way.
I do respect your opinion, though I don't share it.0 -
Not at all. I'd certainly own firearms if I lived in the US and I would support their wider private ownership and use in other countries too.Richard_Nabavi said:
They do take that view. Bonkers, isn't it?taffys said:Perhaps Americans take the view that banning guns would mean disarming law abiding people whilst the criminals in the country keep all of theirs..
0 -
What has she said now ?John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
0 -
http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-france-suppressed-news-of-gruesome-torture-at-bataclan-massacre/John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
0 -
I'll leave it at claims of atrocities committed on the victims of Bataclan before they died, based on testimony at the French government enquiry that's still underway.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What has she said now ?John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
0 -
Awful, terrible details that might be emerging from the French enquiry into the Bataclan massacre about torture on the 2nd floor. Dunno if it's true. But it is believable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What has she said now ?John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
0 -
Filmed but we haven't seen it released? Why not?Pulpstar said:
http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-france-suppressed-news-of-gruesome-torture-at-bataclan-massacre/John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
0 -
First time I have heard of "Heat St". But that is not to say the report is false.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Filmed but we haven't seen it released? Why not?Pulpstar said:
http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-france-suppressed-news-of-gruesome-torture-at-bataclan-massacre/John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
0 -
Actually, the physics of it is that an explosion might blow your balls off and then into your mouth. But still...Pulpstar said:
http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-france-suppressed-news-of-gruesome-torture-at-bataclan-massacre/John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
0 -
That sounds horrible but no doubt nothing should shock us nowpbr2013 said:
Awful, terrible details that might be emerging from the French enquiry into the Bataclan massacre about torture on the 2nd floor. Dunno if it's true. But it is believable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What has she said now ?John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
0 -
She clearly has too much time on her hands. But this is evidence to the official French inquiry being reported on.Fenster said:
She's fucking mental.John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
No other word for it. Absolutely chicken fucking oriental.0 -
I'm sure Ms Mensch, sitting in New York firing off tweets every thirty seconds, is the ideally-placed investigative journalist to give us the truth.0
-
You can still get a 3% return in a day on Mike Pence at Betfair. That's an APR which would make Wonga blush.0
-
If she is talking about this today, of all days, she is just so out of orderpbr2013 said:
She clearly has too much time on her hands. But this is evidence to the official French enquiry being reported on.Fenster said:
She's fucking mental.John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
No other word for it. Absolutely chicken fucking oriental.0 -
Nevertheless, she appears to be reporting the proceedings of the official French inquiry.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm sure Ms Mensch, sitting in New York firing off tweets every thirty seconds, is the ideally-placed investigative journalist to give us the truth.
0 -
I'm not denying that horrific, awful, sickening stuff might've happened.pbr2013 said:
She clearly has too much time on her hands. But this is evidence to the official French enquiry being reported on.Fenster said:
She's fucking mental.John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
No other word for it. Absolutely chicken fucking oriental.
I just find it bizarre that she's selected it as he latest hot topic and will now spend the rest of the evening arguing with everyone about it.
Some things are best just left alone.0 -
I'm very sorry to hear that. I hope they're safe.pbr2013 said:
It's ghastly. I used to spend a bit of time in Nice in the 90s. I went back recently and the whole charecter of the place had changed. Walking around you felt like you had to look over your shoulder. And the beurs had a swagger you didn't see in the 90s. Before anyone accuses me of racism, most of my friends there are of Lebanese heritage. We still await news of someone who hasn't been heard of since last night.AndyJS said:"Why targeting Nice for a terrorist attack was not surprising
The idyllic Mediterranean beach town has a severe problem of Islamist radicalisation"
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21702282-idyllic-mediterranean-beach-town-has-severe-problem-islamist-radicalisation-why0 -
Will be a very pleasant sight indeed.runnymede said:
The dogsh*t collectors will wear kilts. Good stuff.malcolmg said:
MD, the devolution is just the small petty things that matter little. On all big ticket items we have no say , the arithmetic means what England wants is what UK gets. Even in a centralised EU we would make local decisions.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, must say I think that's a slightly odd position given there's increasing devolution within the UK [except the England...], and increasing centralisation within the EU, but there we are.
Edited extra bit: except for*. Not 'the'.
Feeling oddly hungry [gluttony is the sin with which I've tended to struggle the least]. May be related to finally doing some exercise yesterday.0 -
I find it a bit suspicious it is only being reported on that one website.pbr2013 said:
Nevertheless, she appears to be reporting the proceedings of the official French inquiry.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm sure Ms Mensch, sitting in New York firing off tweets every thirty seconds, is the ideally-placed investigative journalist to give us the truth.
0 -
That corresponds very closely to accounts of the Westgate incident in NairobiPulpstar said:
http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-france-suppressed-news-of-gruesome-torture-at-bataclan-massacre/John_M said:Mensch is on the warpath about Bataclan. I sincerely hope she's wrong, otherwise this is not going to end well.
0 -
The rules indicate it settles after a vote at the RNC.Richard_Nabavi said:You can still get a 3% return in a day on Mike Pence at Betfair. That's an APR which would make Wonga blush.
So I guess Pence GOP VP should probably be the same odds as trump GOP Nom.0 -
The boss of the Fench MI6 equivalent said only a few days ago that France is only a couple of outrages away from civil war. If the reported - and this does seem to be from the official French inquiry - gruesomeness about torture at the Bataclan is true and if people start to think the details have been suppressed it ain't gonna do much for social cohesion there.0
-
Just been listening to May's comments on Scotland. She doesn't seem like someone very comfortable on camera, she has that habit of speaking too quickly and therefore getting certain words wrong and correcting herself, common when people who are nervous public speakers have to give presentations. I'm not saying it as a criticism, just a little surprised given how many times she has been on camera and given speeches!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-article-50-activated-uk-approach-eu-referendum-scotland-sturgeon-a7138971.html
0 -
Good point.Pong said:
The rules indicate it settles after a vote at the RNC.Richard_Nabavi said:You can still get a 3% return in a day on Mike Pence at Betfair. That's an APR which would make Wonga blush.
So I guess Pence GOP VP should probably be the same odds as trump GOP Nom.0 -
MD , it is all just bits and pieces and does not allow you to actually do anything or change anything , just the minimum they can give without actually transferring any real power.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, Scotland's getting almost all income tax setting, though [I agree it's bonkers that one aspect, forget which, might be the personal allowance, isn't included given the rest is]. Also, the trend is your friend, within UK devolution. In Euroland, power only flows one way.
I do respect your opinion, though I don't share it.0 -
Haven't been to Nice for some years but really liked it and the region. It seems that the Russian mafia has a strong foothold there.pbr2013 said:
It's ghastly. I used to spend a bit of time in Nice in the 90s. I went back recently and the whole charecter of the place had changed. Walking around you felt like you had to look over your shoulder. And the beurs had a swagger you didn't see in the 90s. Before anyone accuses me of racism, most of my friends there are of Lebanese heritage. We still await news of someone who hasn't been heard of since last night.AndyJS said:"Why targeting Nice for a terrorist attack was not surprising
The idyllic Mediterranean beach town has a severe problem of Islamist radicalisation"
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21702282-idyllic-mediterranean-beach-town-has-severe-problem-islamist-radicalisation-why
0 -
Day 2 as PM, understandable. Not everyone is slick as Cameron, and maybe that will be a bit refreshing.Paristonda said:Just been listening to May's comments on Scotland. She doesn't seem like someone very comfortable on camera, she has that habit of speaking too quickly and therefore getting certain words wrong and correcting herself, common when people who are nervous public speakers have to give presentations. I'm not saying it as a criticism, just a little surprised given how many times she has been on camera and given speeches!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-article-50-activated-uk-approach-eu-referendum-scotland-sturgeon-a7138971.html0 -
Dunno. Just tried to find the original text of the French parliamentary report. Couldn't. Some media coverage (Guardian - "intelligence failures" natch).RobD said:
I find it a bit suspicious it is only being reported on that one website.pbr2013 said:
Nevertheless, she appears to be reporting the proceedings of the official French inquiry.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm sure Ms Mensch, sitting in New York firing off tweets every thirty seconds, is the ideally-placed investigative journalist to give us the truth.
0 -
There were reports at the time: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/british-survivor-eagles-death-metal-6839245RobD said:
I find it a bit suspicious it is only being reported on that one website.pbr2013 said:
Nevertheless, she appears to be reporting the proceedings of the official French inquiry.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm sure Ms Mensch, sitting in New York firing off tweets every thirty seconds, is the ideally-placed investigative journalist to give us the truth.
0 -
My purchase costs have gone up by 10% in the last 3 weeks. From £ 0.75/EUR to £0.84/EUR.
I have just announced a complete stop to any new spending. I hope to avoid any redundancies. I managed to do that in 2009/2010.
Since we do not have any UK competitors, all of us are in the same boat. So, let's see, who puts up prices first.-1 -
Isn't health run entirely from Holyrood, for instance?malcolmg said:
MD , it is all just bits and pieces and does not allow you to actually do anything or change anything , just the minimum they can give without actually transferring any real power.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, Scotland's getting almost all income tax setting, though [I agree it's bonkers that one aspect, forget which, might be the personal allowance, isn't included given the rest is]. Also, the trend is your friend, within UK devolution. In Euroland, power only flows one way.
I do respect your opinion, though I don't share it.0 -
Thanx for reply, its soParistonda said:
I've not spoken with that many people today as working from home, but of those I have, the general mood (besides shock at the nature of the attack) is a lack of surprise that it's happened. Most people were expecting something to happen at the euros and were surprised that it didn't.PlatoSaid said:
As a resident of Paris - what's the local mood re Nice?Paristonda said:
Boris is fine, he's a secret remainer anyway he won't care what deal we get. Fox and Davis are both leadership losers brought in from the cold by TM, if they aren't willing to go along with what TM wants they are easily replaceable.Theuniondivvie said:
It is VERY hard to read what May really wants. Her remarks on not invoking A50 until Scotland agrees (indicating EEA type brexit) flies in the face of her cabinet brexit appointments (indicating Full English Brexit).
Feels very pessimistic here - which may be reflected in those earlier comments about 'living with terrorism'. Wonder if it's approaching a similar state to the US's mass shootings, where sad words are exchanged and nothing ever changes, and people become 'used' to it.
0 -
What line of business are you in?surbiton said:My purchase costs have gone up by 10% in the last 3 weeks. From £ 0.75/EUR to £0.84/EUR.
I have just announced a complete stop to any new spending. I hope to avoid any redundancies. I managed to do that in 2009/2010.
Since we do not have any UK competitors, all of us are in the same boat. So, let's see, who puts up prices first.0
