politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So the changeover begins

Charles said:

MyBurningEars said:

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

Bob__Sykes said:

KentRising said:

If he'd campaigned for Leave, he'd have won it by a landslide and would have been untouchable.

He wanted his legacy to include securing the UK's place in Europe and killing off the issue for a generation. That was entirely noble, and probably achievable if he'd only got a bit more out of his negotiation and if Labour had a moderate likeable leader going all out to campaign for "Remain".

Possibly. I'm beginning to wonder if the referendum was lost for Remain long before the renegotiation, that it was used as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity by many voters to give an "Up Yours" to a way of governing that lots of people had been sotto voce grumbling about for years, a feeling that government (both British/EU) had become a conspiracy against the people rather than the servants of the people.

Why do you think we chose to position ourselves on the right side of history?

I think that sometimes the "little people", in their masses, have a better sense for the sweepingly big moments in history than the political elite.

If in 20 - or better, 40 - years' time any of us are still alive and commenting on PB.com, I would be astonished if any of us would challenge the Wisdom of Sunderland, point at what the EU has become and declare but for one mad year, we would fit right in there.

Was the referendum vote a grasping of Destiny, or a flailing F.U. by a long-failed populace? I don't know. But I do believe there is wisdom in them there crowds.

I completely agree.

It's far too easy for the country's leadership team to become divorced from the realities of life for normal people. It's hard work keeping your finger on the pulse, but worth doing.

I think Tim T has posted some interesting stuff on the decision-making process and how taking lots of factors into account often requires an emotional, "gut" response rather than an analytical one. If he's listening in and has any reading suggestions along these lines, I'd be interested.

ThreeQuidder said:

FF43 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I would say Heath was also destroyed by the Europe issue. Firstly if he hadn't gone into the EU the industrial strife would not have been as bad and secondly he was out by a handful of votes - and would probably have got them if senior tories including a former cabinet minister were not advising people to vote Labour in the 74 elections.

The majority of Tory MPs voted to stay out and Heath only got the legislation narrowly through with the help of Labour Europhiles like Woy.

That poisoned the party for 41 years, dividing it into Europhiles and Eurosceptics. That is over now and the intellectual energy can be focused on more useful things.

Genuine question to a (pre-referendum) committed Brexiteer. If you are told, out of EU, but keep a multilateral arrangement via the EEA, unrestricted freedom of movement, UK subject to foreign court, and no say on legislation enacted multilaterally, - would you say, I accept that, maybe not my first choice, but I can live with it?

That is not an entirely fair description of the EEA.

As it currently stands, the EEA is like that. The reason why I ask the question is that I think there will some pressure to move quickly on this. Anything else is a bilateral arrangement and subject to a lot of uncertainty and probable delay. There would be a real debate and in that case I would ask whether divisions in the Conservative Party on Eaurope really have disappeared.

https://twitter.com/AndyGilder/status/753186508887252993

Blurry pic of May curtseying for the queen - seemingly taken on the corgi's phone camera.

Why is the new Prime Minister wearing a hi-viz bum-flap in that image of her with HM the Queen??

AndyJS said:

The UK has its first female prime minister since Wednesday 28th November 1990.

Harriet must be thrilled...

MikeL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Watching all of this can anyone imagine that it was Andrea Leadsom meeting the Queen just now to become PM.

Doesn't bare thinking about does it.

84 MPs should be ashamed of themselves for voting for someone so completely unqualified.

(Snip)

But she was a leaver, which in the eyes of some matters more than truthfulness or competence.

But it's all Murdoch's fault, not the fact that Leadsom proved herself incapable of conducting even one interview.

DecrepitJohnL said:

GIN1138 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thanks Dave. IMO you did well. Not brilliantly, but well. But you prevented the catastrophe of another Brown government, or an Ed one.

Yes, he got rid of Brown for us and revived the economy. I think people forget just what a terrible state we was in back in 2010. The 2010 to 2015 coalition did make decent progress.

I think he could have been an all time great PM but in the end he was too much of a gambler.

Actually in 2010 the economy was recovering from the global crash until Osborne's Plan A flatlined it.

As I remember it, Brown simply sprayed around a lot of money we didn't have a few months before the election and got a little bump in GDP as a result.

In no real sense was the economy "recovering".

MarqueeMark said:

Why is the new Prime Minister wearing a hi-viz bum-flap in that image of her with HM the Queen??

She's planning to squash the LibDems?

The Prime Minister has resigned.

Long Live the Prime Minister!

Alanbrooke said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

why the fk are the cabinet being driven around in German cars ?

Saxe-Coburg-Gotha ---> Windsor

LOL

should be a Rolls Royce then. German car built in Sussex.

Built in Sussex? I think put together from parts manufactured all over would be a better description.

Incidentally my brother-in-law who works at the site is very critical of the body presses and other bits that come from Germany. Says the quality is crap.

Pong said:

Danny565 said:

Cameron's Twitter description now: "Former Prime Minister and MP for Witney"

Perhaps he'll now post on PB using his real name?

So long TSE....!

JosiasJessop said:

MikeL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Watching all of this can anyone imagine that it was Andrea Leadsom meeting the Queen just now to become PM.

Doesn't bare thinking about does it.

84 MPs should be ashamed of themselves for voting for someone so completely unqualified.

(Snip)

But she was a leaver, which in the eyes of some matters more than truthfulness or competence.

But it's all Murdoch's fault, not the fact that Leadsom proved herself incapable of conducting even one interview.

That's one habit we need to shed, pronto. Now the decision has been made, we need the most able, not the most ideological, to lead the way.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

FF43 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I would say Heath was also destroyed by the Europe issue. Firstly if he hadn't gone into the EU the industrial strife would not have been as bad and secondly he was out by a handful of votes - and would probably have got them if senior tories including a former cabinet minister were not advising people to vote Labour in the 74 elections.

The majority of Tory MPs voted to stay out and Heath only got the legislation narrowly through with the help of Labour Europhiles like Woy.

That poisoned the party for 41 years, dividing it into Europhiles and Eurosceptics. That is over now and the intellectual energy can be focused on more useful things.

Genuine question to a (pre-referendum) committed Brexiteer. If you are told, out of EU, but keep a multilateral arrangement via the EEA, unrestricted freedom of movement, UK subject to foreign court, and no say on legislation enacted multilaterally, - would you say, I accept that, maybe not my first choice, but I can live with it?

Thats a bit of an exaggeration (there are some free movement get outs in terms of benefits etc. and "emergency" measures not available in the EU and the EDJ wont be meddling in our affairs other than a proxy court on single market matters but...

Yes. Sure I would love to get out of everything except EFTA but that would be mad and far too big a jump for the economy.

Join ETFA/EEA and get whatever free movement concessions we can in return for higher annual fees per capita than Norway Danegeld. Wait a decade and if then we are powering ahead with bilateral trade with RoW sorted and an ever smaller percentage of our foreign trade with the single market then we consider demanding a renegiotiation in which we are prepared to walk away from EEA if we don't get what we want.

Sounds like a qualified Yes and a willingness to park the EU issue at least for a while.

ThreeQuidder said:

Jobabob said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Cyclefree said:

Bob__Sykes said:

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm doing my best to not cry like a disgraced televangelist

Permission for top lip to wobble; granted.

I'm really quite emotional about all this. I have ranted and railed at times, but I was "with him" generally from day 1 when Howard announced he was quitting. That's 11 years ago, and that's more than a quarter of my lifetime.

What a stupid, stupid waste of a generally sound Premiership.

It is quite something how many British Tory PMs have - in the end - been destroyed by the EU issue: Thatcher, Major, Cameron i.e. all of them since Heath who took us in.

And how many other Tory leaders/would be leaders have had to or felt they needed to define themselves around the EU issue: Clarke, Portillo, IDS, Hague.

It is odd that the EU issue has been so toxic for the Tories when - arguably - it is Labour voters who have felt more of the disadvantages of being in the EU.

Discuss.........

I would say Heath was also destroyed by the Europe issue. Firstly if he hadn't gone into the EU the industrial strife would not have been as bad and secondly he was out by a handful of votes - and would probably have got them if senior tories including a former cabinet minister were not advising people to vote Labour in the 74 elections.

The majority of Tory MPs voted to stay out and Heath only got the legislation narrowly through with the help of Labour Europhiles like Woy.

That poisoned the party for 41 years, dividing it into Europhiles and Eurosceptics. That is over now and the intellectual energy can be focused on more useful things.

"That poisoned the party for 41 years, dividing it into Europhiles and Eurosceptics. That is over now"

Chuckle. I doubt it!

Approximately nobody in the Tory party is going to advocate rejoining.

It will become one of those things discussed earnestly every year at Libdem party conferences.

MarqueeMark said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

GIN1138 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thanks Dave. IMO you did well. Not brilliantly, but well. But you prevented the catastrophe of another Brown government, or an Ed one.

Yes, he got rid of Brown for us and revived the economy. I think people forget just what a terrible state we was in back in 2010. The 2010 to 2015 coalition did make decent progress.

I think he could have been an all time great PM but in the end he was too much of a gambler.

Actually in 2010 the economy was recovering from the global crash until Osborne's Plan A flatlined it.

Strange how you lefties who laud Gordon Brown's economic recovery in 2010 never have "sustainable" in your vocabulary....

AAA Brown vs. AA Cameron

All you need to know

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

runnymede said:

Good riddance to a man who first tried to bounce the public into voting away their future, then tried to scare and bully them into doing so. He disgraced his office and his departure is a very good thing.

Not even a kind word for delivering on the referendum.

Certaiinly not. It was a waste of time and money. The question was meaningless without greater precision.

The question was hardly meaningless, we'll be leaving the EU.

People were asked to vote without knowing what the possible alternatives were. The Leave campaign, headed by prominent Tories, promised any number of contradictory outcomes. And Caameron´s team just kept on threatening us. This was not a real choice.

Yeah, the choice was between staying in the EU, and leaving the EU...

What sort of EU?

The one based on Cameron's renegotiation.

I don´t think anybody voted on that basis!!!

So what were they voting for on remaining in the EU? Some wishful thinking that they'd give us an even better deal if we stayed in?

It seems to me that everybody understood Cameron´s referendum question in their own particular way- some thought it meant more money for the NHS, or an end to EU immigration, others an end to third world immigration, others increased privileges for bankers and the City of London, others for abolition of environmental control and workers´rights. Whatever you like.

And now that Cameron, Osborne, Johnson, Gove, Leadsome etc have all scarpered off, Mrs May is left trying to reconcile all these contradictions. She is doomed to failure, and will be remembered as the very worst prime minister ever.

We do these events so well...

John_M said:

JosiasJessop said:

MikeL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Watching all of this can anyone imagine that it was Andrea Leadsom meeting the Queen just now to become PM.

Doesn't bare thinking about does it.

84 MPs should be ashamed of themselves for voting for someone so completely unqualified.

(Snip)

But she was a leaver, which in the eyes of some matters more than truthfulness or competence.

But it's all Murdoch's fault, not the fact that Leadsom proved herself incapable of conducting even one interview.

That's one habit we need to shed, pronto. Now the decision has been made, we need the most able, not the most ideological, to lead the way.

Indeed.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Watching all of this can anyone imagine that it was Andrea Leadsom meeting the Queen just now to become PM.

I expect the party faithful would be bigging up Leadsom and publicly wondering how Theresa May ever got on the ballot paper after single-handedly losing the referendum by failing to curb immigration. Likewise if Boris were the new PM, we'd be overwhelmed with Heineken similes and pictures of bikes and the Olympics. Everyone loves a winner.

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

GIN1138 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thanks Dave. IMO you did well. Not brilliantly, but well. But you prevented the catastrophe of another Brown government, or an Ed one.

Yes, he got rid of Brown for us and revived the economy. I think people forget just what a terrible state we was in back in 2010. The 2010 to 2015 coalition did make decent progress.

I think he could have been an all time great PM but in the end he was too much of a gambler.

Actually in 2010 the economy was recovering from the global crash until Osborne's Plan A flatlined it.

Strange how you lefties who laud Gordon Brown's economic recovery in 2010 never have "sustainable" in your vocabulary....

AAA Brown vs. AA Cameron

All you need to know

Lol. Does anyone still take ratings agencies seriously.

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

runnymede said:

Good riddance to a man who first tried to bounce the public into voting away their future, then tried to scare and bully them into doing so. He disgraced his office and his departure is a very good thing.

Not even a kind word for delivering on the referendum.

Certaiinly not. It was a waste of time and money. The question was meaningless without greater precision.

The question was hardly meaningless, we'll be leaving the EU.

People were asked to vote without knowing what the possible alternatives were. The Leave campaign, headed by prominent Tories, promised any number of contradictory outcomes. And Caameron´s team just kept on threatening us. This was not a real choice.

Yeah, the choice was between staying in the EU, and leaving the EU...

What sort of EU?

The one based on Cameron's renegotiation.

I don´t think anybody voted on that basis!!!

So what were they voting for on remaining in the EU? Some wishful thinking that they'd give us an even better deal if we stayed in?

It seems to me that everybody understood Cameron´s referendum question in their own particular way- some thought it meant more money for the NHS, or an end to EU immigration, others an end to third world immigration, others increased privileges for bankers and the City of London, others for abolition of environmental control and workers´rights. Whatever you like.

And now that Cameron, Osborne, Johnson, Gove, Leadsome etc have all scarpered off, Mrs May is left trying to reconcile all these contradictions. She is doomed to failure, and will be remembered as the very worst prime minister ever.

I think you're forgetting that the UK electorate just aren't ideological. I hate pigeonholing myself, but I probably lean Hannanite. However, I'm not going to die in a ditch if we went for an EEA-like option.

Similarly, immigration just has to be demonstrably better controlled rather than reduced to zero. We're a phlegmatic bunch. We'll adapt to the new reality and get on with what's actually important; family, friends, community.

Betfair has settled.

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

PClipp said:

RobD said:

runnymede said:

Good riddance to a man who first tried to bounce the public into voting away their future, then tried to scare and bully them into doing so. He disgraced his office and his departure is a very good thing.

Not even a kind word for delivering on the referendum.

Certaiinly not. It was a waste of time and money. The question was meaningless without greater precision.

The question was hardly meaningless, we'll be leaving the EU.

People were asked to vote without knowing what the possible alternatives were. The Leave campaign, headed by prominent Tories, promised any number of contradictory outcomes. And Caameron´s team just kept on threatening us. This was not a real choice.

Yeah, the choice was between staying in the EU, and leaving the EU...

What sort of EU?

The one based on Cameron's renegotiation.

I don´t think anybody voted on that basis!!!

So what were they voting for on remaining in the EU? Some wishful thinking that they'd give us an even better deal if we stayed in?

She is doomed to failure, and will be remembered as the very worst prime minister ever.

No rush to judgement here.....

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

GIN1138 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thanks Dave. IMO you did well. Not brilliantly, but well. But you prevented the catastrophe of another Brown government, or an Ed one.

Yes, he got rid of Brown for us and revived the economy. I think people forget just what a terrible state we was in back in 2010. The 2010 to 2015 coalition did make decent progress.

I think he could have been an all time great PM but in the end he was too much of a gambler.

Actually in 2010 the economy was recovering from the global crash until Osborne's Plan A flatlined it.

Strange how you lefties who laud Gordon Brown's economic recovery in 2010 never have "sustainable" in your vocabulary....

AAA Brown vs. AA Cameron

All you need to know

AAARRGGH Brown.

The new PM gets a few moment to collect her thoughts - and play with all the electronic toys in the back of the Jaguar!

nunu said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

GIN1138 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thanks Dave. IMO you did well. Not brilliantly, but well. But you prevented the catastrophe of another Brown government, or an Ed one.

Yes, he got rid of Brown for us and revived the economy. I think people forget just what a terrible state we was in back in 2010. The 2010 to 2015 coalition did make decent progress.

I think he could have been an all time great PM but in the end he was too much of a gambler.

Actually in 2010 the economy was recovering from the global crash until Osborne's Plan A flatlined it.

Strange how you lefties who laud Gordon Brown's economic recovery in 2010 never have "sustainable" in your vocabulary....

AAA Brown vs. AA Cameron

All you need to know

Lol. Does anyone still take ratings agencies seriously.

The ratings agencies are another casualty of the 2008 crash. We lost our AAA rating with Fitch and Moodys in 2013. S&P just joined the club. The day they did that, our borrowing costs went down. I would be entirely unsurprised if gilts carry negative interest rates in the next couple of years.

https://twitter.com/thatdanstewart/status/752479401682632704

JackW said:

MikeL said:

Huw Edwards just said Queen came to the throne in 1951.

How can the BBC get such a basic thing wrong? Totally hopeless.

You'd have thought the BBC would get these minor details of Andrea Leadsom's CV correct !!

pb joke of the day.

AndyJS said:

Cameron's final Tweet as custodian of the Number10gov feed:

twitter.com/Number10gov/status/753192970015350784

Personally I would have gone for:-

So long and thanks for all the fish

I hope Mrs May remembers to thank Obama for getting her the new job.

Cameron will be remembered for four things: coalition, gay marriage, Brexit and a peculiar love of pigs.

RobD said:

Pong said:

Danny565 said:

Cameron's Twitter description now: "Former Prime Minister and MP for Witney"

Perhaps he'll now post on PB using his real name?

So long TSE....!

Snowflake x+1 ?

FF43 said:

Sounds like a qualified Yes and a willingness to park the EU issue at least for a while.

Basically - Yes, provided the EU don't take the piss in the Brexit negotiations.

Certainly not park the EU issue for a while. It needs to be done as soon as possible so we can get on with bilaterial RoW trade deals, defenestrate the ECJ and take back control of Agricultural and Fisheries so we can implement sane conservation measures instead of the nonsense of the CFP etc. That is another reason to stay in EEA/EFTA as it makes Brexit far quicker to sort and gets it done before anyone gets cold feet.

The deal ought to be sorted out by the diplomats in principle before we trigger A50 and the formal negotiations can just be some high profile grandstanding about what the Danegeld/Freedom of movement concessions will be before, perhaps with one short breakdown in talks and public huffiness, everyone emerges into the Sunlight with a deal that takes Britian out of the EU but allows the EU to claim that Britain and the EU are still valued partners in Europe or whatever flowery guff.

MarkSenior said:

A good PM stabbed in the back by people like Plato who a year ago went round asking people to vote for him as PM

Away you halfwit he stabbed himself. Get a life and stop attacking innocent people.

MarqueeMark said:

RobD said:

MarqueeMark said:

The new PM gets a few moment to collect her thoughts - and play with all the electronic toys in the back of the Jaguar!

"Don't press that button!!!"

And in a moment, Moscow was accidentally turned into a glowing blob....

Surely all our nukes have a default setting pointing at France?

Who are the protestors? Some union rent-a-mob?

John_M said:

nunu said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

GIN1138 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thanks Dave. IMO you did well. Not brilliantly, but well. But you prevented the catastrophe of another Brown government, or an Ed one.

Yes, he got rid of Brown for us and revived the economy. I think people forget just what a terrible state we was in back in 2010. The 2010 to 2015 coalition did make decent progress.

I think he could have been an all time great PM but in the end he was too much of a gambler.

Actually in 2010 the economy was recovering from the global crash until Osborne's Plan A flatlined it.

Strange how you lefties who laud Gordon Brown's economic recovery in 2010 never have "sustainable" in your vocabulary....

AAA Brown vs. AA Cameron

All you need to know

Lol. Does anyone still take ratings agencies seriously.

The ratings agencies are another casualty of the 2008 crash. We lost our AAA rating with Fitch and Moodys in 2013. S&P just joined the club. The day they did that, our borrowing costs went down. I would be entirely unsurprised if gilts carry negative interest rates in the next couple of years.

The rating agencies lost all their credibility in the 2008 crash, it is of far less consequence what they think now

Was that shrieking noise Nicola Sturgeon's reaction to May talking about Unionism in her second sentence as PM?

RodCrosby said:

Bloody awful speech.

She's only just started.

ydoethur said:

Was that shrieking noise Nicola Sturgeon's reaction to May talking about Unionism in her second sentence as PM?

Another "material change in circumstances"

Flippin eck Theresa - this is pretty robust stuff - and for a Tory PM too!

All credit to May, she is saying the right things

Clear and concise. Now on with the work.

oh dear

Listening to that speech. Labour is screwed isnt it.

I wonder if Dennis Thatcher left a note in Number 10 for future husbands of Prime Ministers?