politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn v Eagle will decide whether LAB continues to be a pa
Comments
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If they are talking about formal negotiation, those won't start until after Article 50. Unless you think we should push the button right now?GIN1138 said:
Into the long grass Brexit goes....PlatoSaid said:On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.0 -
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Makes Angela Eagle seem interesting.RodCrosby said:
Who?Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
All the charisma of a parking attendant, or assistant librarian...0 -
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.oxfordsimon said:
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.PlatoSaid said:Kevin Schofield
EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
I want Yvette.0 -
i see Corbyn is going after the swing vote by attending an event for Cuba, doing his little bit to offset Labour's loses in Scotland in 2015.
It is a shame for Labour that the old fool is trying his hardest to destroy the PLP as an effective alternative to The Tories.0 -
@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp0
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Both of them are pygmies. Pointless and doomed to fail.AndyJS said:
Makes Angela Eagle seem interesting.RodCrosby said:
Who?Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
All the charisma of a parking attendant, or assistant librarian...0 -
Didn't Corbyn do a Cuba event just last week!? I seem to remember something like that.dr_spyn said:i see Corbyn is going after the swing vote by attending an event for Cuba, doing his little bit to offset Labour's loses in Scotland in 2015.
It is a shame for Labour that the old fool is trying his hardest to destroy the PLP as an effective alternative to The Tories.0 -
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
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You missed the next line!Ishmael_X said:ukip email just in
"Dear Friend,
We’re going to have a Remain supporter Theresa May as Britain’s next Prime Minister.
The Tory establishment with its media friends in tow have managed to hound Brexiteer Andrea Leadsom out of the race, and we’re now looking at a Brexit fudge.
You only had to listen to the Home Secretary and next Prime Minister’s mealy mouthed statement on EU free movement this morning to realise what’s coming. She didn’t say she’d end it, she said she’d control it.
All this talk of “leave means leave” means almost nothing.
That’s why UKIP is needed now more than ever."
http://tinyurl.com/j8jfjap-1 -
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.GIN1138 said:
Into the long grass Brexit goes....PlatoSaid said:On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.0 -
Justice is the obvious place for Raab, given his background.0
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The problem with giving members a choice of "unity" candidate is that quite a few of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up going to Corbyn.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
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A deal in under five months? Interesting!Paul_Bedfordshire said:0 -
Do the Labour leadership rules allows nominations from MPs who are deselected by their CLP?
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/angela-eagle-face-deselection-battle-11596763
Poor Argclu is really up to her neck in it.0 -
Looks like Shadsy has settled some markets0
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Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!surbiton said:
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.oxfordsimon said:
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.PlatoSaid said:Kevin Schofield
EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
I want Yvette.0 -
He'd been waiting outside with all the other hopefuls - Green came out with Grayling et al just before May.ChaosOdin said:
She went straight to talk to Duncan after her speech.CarlottaVance said:
May has known Green since Univerity (and Duncan, but not as well) - there was a feeling Green was overlooked by Cameron.....rottenborough said:Rudd, Damien Green, Grayling, Green. The key people lined up behind May.
Cabinet clues?0 -
The fact paranoid people are worried, or at least conflate their idea of leave as the only idea, is why may has less time than she thinks.John_M said:
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.GIN1138 said:
Into the long grass Brexit goes....PlatoSaid said:On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.0 -
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.MaxPB said:Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.0 -
Knowledge just gets in the way!Jobabob said:
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!surbiton said:
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.oxfordsimon said:
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.PlatoSaid said:Kevin Schofield
EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
I want Yvette.0 -
Only the heads of agreement. If you think about it, with the red lines each side has already publicly quoted, there's a fairly straightforward laundry list. Single market membership with all that entails? Or just in goods? Financial passporting, yes or no? Which of the areas of cooperation continue, and which will fall into abeyance?RobD said:
A deal in under five months? Interesting!Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Sorting out the rules & regs and agreeing transitional arrangements for things like the CFP could take years.0 -
Early next year is reasonable. If the negotiations get postponed past January, then it will be backsliding.MaxPB said:
Damien Green and Dominic Grieve are both noted europhiles. Their views are to be put in the "ignore" pile.GIN1138 said:
Into the long grass Brexit goes....PlatoSaid said:On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.0 -
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.Jobabob said:
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!surbiton said:
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.oxfordsimon said:
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.PlatoSaid said:Kevin Schofield
EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
I want Yvette.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45
Eagle 35
Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2:
Corbyn 52
Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.0 -
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
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The de-selections only come about when a new candidate is selected. It will be , at least, a year before that happens.Lowlander said:Do the Labour leadership rules allows nominations from MPs who are deselected by their CLP?
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/angela-eagle-face-deselection-battle-11596763
Poor Argclu is really up to her neck in it.0 -
Has Eagle lined up her 51 nominations?SouthamObserver said:
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Obviously can only be 5, and realistically probably only 4 contenders (plus Corbyn).0 -
That's by far the best option. But this is the Labour party you are talking about.MaxPB said:
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.Jobabob said:
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!surbiton said:
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.oxfordsimon said:
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.PlatoSaid said:Kevin Schofield
EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
I want Yvette.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45
Eagle 35
Smith 30 (eliminated)
Round 2:
Corbyn 52
Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
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Shows how much you know the Labour Party. If someone will not vote Eagle, after voting Owen, will not vote for Eagle anyway, unity or not.MaxPB said:
The problem with giving members a choice of "unity" candidate is that quite a few of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up going to Corbyn.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
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I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.surbiton said:
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.MaxPB said:Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.0 -
You are very harsh on pygmies. But anybody but Corbyn. Anybody.oxfordsimon said:
Both of them are pygmies. Pointless and doomed to fail.AndyJS said:
Makes Angela Eagle seem interesting.RodCrosby said:
Who?Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
All the charisma of a parking attendant, or assistant librarian...0 -
Exactly, Mr. M.. Some people seem to expect that international diplomacy should happen in accordance with news cycles and in public. Well, it don't.John_M said:
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.GIN1138 said:
Into the long grass Brexit goes....PlatoSaid said:On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
I am quite sure that the FCO people will have been having quiet conversations with all sorts of countries for weeks if not months. That is what embassies are for after all. Chats will be had, reports written, position papers prepared, all that has to happen before the politicians get involved and actual negotiations start. Very little of that work will ever appear in media and that does will be by selective leaks by one or more countries trying to exert influence by the back door.0 -
It does put May in a bit of a quandary in calling a new election.surbiton said:
The de-selections only come about when a new candidate is selected. It will be , at least, a year before that happens.Lowlander said:Do the Labour leadership rules allows nominations from MPs who are deselected by their CLP?
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/angela-eagle-face-deselection-battle-11596763
Poor Argclu is really up to her neck in it.
Sure she can call one while the existing right-wing PLP is in place and cull a lot of them. But they will be in a position then to oust Corbyn and start to rebuild.
Give Labour 12 months and they can cull most of their right-wing themselves and then whatever rump survives the election will be left-wing nuts with no ability to rebuild the party ensuring Tory rule for decades.0 -
I just hope people realise that for the sake of the economy, we're going to tiptoe away from the EU. EEA or whatever doesn't have to be the final destination.kle4 said:
The fact paranoid people are worried, or at least conflate their idea of leave as the only idea, is why may has less time than she thinks.John_M said:
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.GIN1138 said:
Into the long grass Brexit goes....PlatoSaid said:On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
We can't just scream 'Banzai!' and jump out of the EU skyscraper. That's unpossible.0 -
But they might give Corbyn the second preference. Why risk that option?surbiton said:
Shows how much you know the Labour Party. If someone will not vote Eagle, after voting Owen, will not vote for Eagle anyway, unity or not.MaxPB said:
The problem with giving members a choice of "unity" candidate is that quite a few of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up going to Corbyn.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
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I tend to agree. The MPC can say 'we don't have enough hard data yet to justify a cut, we'll review it next month'MaxPB said:
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.0 -
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.0
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That's somewhat true but someone like Yvette, with good name recognition, could potentially benefit in the same way.MaxPB said:
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.Jobabob said:
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!surbiton said:
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.oxfordsimon said:
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.PlatoSaid said:Kevin Schofield
EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
I want Yvette.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45
Eagle 35
Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2:
Corbyn 52
Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
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I wonder of May will take soundings from her new Cabinet regarding a snap GE. Surely it is more likely now she was coronated?0
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Don't let the door hit you on the way out!PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
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Extraordinary logic !MaxPB said:
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.Jobabob said:
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!surbiton said:
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.oxfordsimon said:
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.PlatoSaid said:Kevin Schofield
EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
I want Yvette.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45
Eagle 35
Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2:
Corbyn 52
Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
A MP who voted for Owen, will not vote Eagle in Round 2 because he/she votes Corbyn.
However, if there was only one contest, the same MP, will choose Eagle over Corbyn !!
Really ?0 -
I was never inMaxPB said:
Don't let the door hit you on the way out!PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
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Interesting anecdotal evidence from BBC News: their reporters found that Brexit Tories in North Yorkshire were mostly happy with May as leader, but in Gosport they were overwhelmingly hostile.0
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I'll confess my ignorance up-front, but it's the FCO that bothers me most. Everyone there will have spent their careers pursuing EU objectives. How can anyone be expected to do an about-turn like that? And when it's an entire organisation that needs to be turned round, well .....HurstLlama said:
Exactly, Mr. M.. Some people seem to expect that international diplomacy should happen in accordance with news cycles and in public. Well, it don't.John_M said:
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.GIN1138 said:
Into the long grass Brexit goes....PlatoSaid said:On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
I am quite sure that the FCO people will have been having quiet conversations with all sorts of countries for weeks if not months. That is what embassies are for after all. Chats will be had, reports written, position papers prepared, all that has to happen before the politicians get involved and actual negotiations start. Very little of that work will ever appear in media and that does will be by selective leaks by one or more countries trying to exert influence by the back door.0 -
Yes she has her nomsOmnium said:
Has Eagle lined up her 51 nominations?SouthamObserver said:
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Obviously can only be 5, and realistically probably only 4 contenders (plus Corbyn).0 -
More seriously, if the only thing keeping people in one rather than the other was the prospect of the other person winning, a person who is themselves happily staying put, maybe they were in the wrong party to start with.MaxPB said:
Don't let the door hit you on the way out!PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
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Is this the same Twitter which expected EICIPM to enter Downing Street last year?PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
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How many Twitter accounts does Plato have ?PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
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Less likely, surely? They dismay not have wanted the prospect of one floated by candidates, and since they are all united again no need to seek public endorsement of any platform.RobD said:I wonder of May will take soundings from her new Cabinet regarding a snap GE. Surely it is more likely now she was coronated?
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I live in North Yorkshire. It's so wonderful we'd be happy if Darth Vader was PM.AndyJS said:Interesting anecdotal evidence from BBC News: their reporters found that Brexit Tories in North Yorkshire were mostly happy with May as leader, but in Gosport they were overwhelmingly hostile.
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Equally, someone might vote Owen who would never vote Eagle. Why not let Owen beat Eagle ?MaxPB said:
But they might give Corbyn the second preference. Why risk that option?surbiton said:
Shows how much you know the Labour Party. If someone will not vote Eagle, after voting Owen, will not vote for Eagle anyway, unity or not.MaxPB said:
The problem with giving members a choice of "unity" candidate is that quite a few of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up going to Corbyn.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
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I don't know about anyone else. But I don't think Aaron Banks is a reliable narrator.PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
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Next Con leader & Con forecast suspended on Betfair.0
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Why take the risk though. The anti-Corbyn camp needs to poll the membership on which of Eagle, Smith and Watson has the best chance of beating Corbyn, then put that person up and unite behind them. Having two anti-Corbyn options just looks like in fighting and squabbling, plus a certain amount of axing Corbyn because these people covet the leadership rather than him being crap. I think it is time for Corbyn to go, obviously if he sticks around it's great for the Tories, but having no real opposition is turning the UK into a single party state which is bad for the country. I think splitting the ticket and allowing the option of unity votes to transfer to Corbyn in a second round greatly decreases the chance of removing him.Jobabob said:
That's somewhat true but someone like Yvette, with good name recognition, could potentially benefit in the same way.MaxPB said:
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.Jobabob said:
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!surbiton said:
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.oxfordsimon said:
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.PlatoSaid said:Kevin Schofield
EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
I want Yvette.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45
Eagle 35
Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2:
Corbyn 52
Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.0 -
Cooper-esque?Lowlander said:
I don't know about anyone else. But I don't think Aaron Banks is a reliable narrator.PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
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I think its the Twitter that expected 50 UKIP MPs last year.AndyJS said:
Is this the same Twitter which expected EICIPM to enter Downing Street last year?PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
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surbiton said:
How many Twitter accounts does Plato have ?PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
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May, Brown, Major, Callaghan, Home, Macmillan, Eden.
The pedigree of unelected PMs is not good. She must aim to emulate Supermac.0 -
Needs a threadsurbiton said:
Extraordinary logic !MaxPB said:
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.Jobabob said:
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!surbiton said:
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.oxfordsimon said:
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.PlatoSaid said:Kevin Schofield
EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
I want Yvette.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45
Eagle 35
Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2:
Corbyn 52
Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
A MP who voted for Owen, will not vote Eagle in Round 2 because he/she votes Corbyn.
However, if there was only one contest, the same MP, will choose Eagle over Corbyn !!
Really ?0 -
There were some people in London who voted for Britain First then Khan iirc. Never underestimate the lack of logic from voters.surbiton said:
Extraordinary logic !MaxPB said:
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.Jobabob said:
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!surbiton said:
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.oxfordsimon said:
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.PlatoSaid said:Kevin Schofield
EXCL Owen Smith to run for Labour leadership - and could launch his campaign tomorrow https://t.co/GMSHMcRQLM https://t.co/eqkbXkuNBW
I want Yvette.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45
Eagle 35
Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2:
Corbyn 52
Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
A MP who voted for Owen, will not vote Eagle in Round 2 because he/she votes Corbyn.
However, if there was only one contest, the same MP, will choose Eagle over Corbyn !!
Really ?0 -
Twitter should not be used as a barometer of anything except the noisiness of tw@ts.PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
0 -
I wouldn't be shocked to discover 50 MPs had voted UKIP at some point though, in the privacy of the booth at euro or locals timeLowlander said:
I think its the Twitter that expected 50 UKIP MPs last year.AndyJS said:
Is this the same Twitter which expected EICIPM to enter Downing Street last year?PrinceofTaranto said:Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
0 -
I believe that's part of the motivation for setting up a cross departmental team to handle Brexit. The FCO will have to be reset, rebuilt and re-aimed. If you're really interested in some of the background, there's plenty on https://www.civilserviceworld.com/ (though as you might expect, the overriding theme is 'give us more money'AnneJGP said:
I'll confess my ignorance up-front, but it's the FCO that bothers me most. Everyone there will have spent their careers pursuing EU objectives. How can anyone be expected to do an about-turn like that? And when it's an entire organisation that needs to be turned round, well .....HurstLlama said:
Exactly, Mr. M.. Some people seem to expect that international diplomacy should happen in accordance with news cycles and in public. Well, it don't.John_M said:
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.GIN1138 said:
Into the long grass Brexit goes....PlatoSaid said:On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
I am quite sure that the FCO people will have been having quiet conversations with all sorts of countries for weeks if not months. That is what embassies are for after all. Chats will be had, reports written, position papers prepared, all that has to happen before the politicians get involved and actual negotiations start. Very little of that work will ever appear in media and that does will be by selective leaks by one or more countries trying to exert influence by the back door.
). 0 -
I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.MaxPB said:
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.surbiton said:
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.MaxPB said:Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
That is not to say people stopping borrowing to buy imported stuff on their credit cards (the usual symptom of a "slide in consumer confidence") might not be a bad idea.0 -
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.SouthamObserver said:
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.0 -
And Ed Miliband for fucking up the leadership election process.surbiton said:
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.SouthamObserver said:
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.0 -
You will have to wait for the PMI's etc. at the beginning of August. Most of the July numbers were taken before the vote when everyone expected a Remain vote.HurstLlama said:
I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.MaxPB said:
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.surbiton said:
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.MaxPB said:Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
That is not to say people stopping borrowing to buy imported stuff on their credit cards (the usual symptom of a "slide in consumer confidence") might not be a bad idea.0 -
-
Look here, for example:HurstLlama said:I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2016/7/8/brexit-prompts-biggest-drop-in-uk-consumer-confidence-in-21-years
0 -
The most recent indicator is that Dixons Carphone are being marked down - people think big ticket purchases are going to be deferred in the second half of the year.HurstLlama said:
I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.MaxPB said:
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.surbiton said:
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.MaxPB said:Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
That is not to say people stopping borrowing to buy imported stuff on their credit cards (the usual symptom of a "slide in consumer confidence") might not be a bad idea.
It's hard to tell what normal people are thinking. We need a decent summer to cheer everyone up. 0 -
One for the Focus leafletsRichard_Nabavi said:
Look here, for example:HurstLlama said:I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2016/7/8/brexit-prompts-biggest-drop-in-uk-consumer-confidence-in-21-years 0 -
So unlike Blair, who fucked up the country and didn't lose, and Brown, who fucked up the country before he lost.surbiton said:
0 -
Some with a "Broken" name will be fun for the newspapers.Scott_P said:@alantravis40: Now heard two Westminster sources tipping James Brokenshire as next home secretary - May's capable immigration and security minister
0 -
Wonder if someone could advise me here?
My daughter has funding for a PHD and has been offered a place at a red brick uni to complete this. She has formally accepted and the university have acknowledged that acceptance Lecturers in the department gave sent her congratulatory Emails and stating really looking forward to the research. Her appointed mentors have said to her get started now doing background work even though you start in early October. This my daughter has been doing. The university has now emailed her saying they have amended the conditions and they need her transcript o result from the MSC. The problem is that doesn't meet the new conditions and a further problem is that the results on the transcript are incorrect as my daughter had higher marks. We have told student office , emailed them without luck and we are now seeking interviews with them and the uni administration
Firstly can a university offer a place and then withdraw when they have changed conditions months later and well after the offer was made and acceptance. I consider that to be a contract in place and agreed
1) How the hell do you get anything changed in a uni when's it incorrect and the student office has made a catastrophic error. It's their own document that shows the error clearly. We have been trying to change this since MSC results were given out.
2) If nothing resolved who should e go to the chancellor ? Dean? To press the case.
3) My daughter has done nothing wrong achieved the grades before and even after new conditions and is now again being made unwell by this incredible stress now placed on her.
Any thoughts help would be appreciated because as we all know there is a huge amount riding on an admin mistake. That mistake exacerbated due to a post change of the acceptance conditions which I think is not only unfair but possibly a breach of the original contract of acceptance.
Help !!0 -
Consumer confidence can clearly change very rapidly.HurstLlama said:
I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.MaxPB said:
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.surbiton said:
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.MaxPB said:Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
That is not to say people stopping borrowing to buy imported stuff on their credit cards (the usual symptom of a "slide in consumer confidence") might not be a bad idea.
I actually think that there is a slim chance rates could rise rather than be cut, and that it could be the right thing to do. Potentially the drop in the pounds is causing inflation, and higher rates are the traditional tool to fight that. They'd support the pound a little, potentially (and counter-intuitively) help avoid softness in the property market, and potentially send a signal that the BoE sees a positive economic outlook.
Might be a vanishingly slim chance mind you
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0
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Thanks for tht link. I shall be interested to browse it.John_M said:
I believe that's part of the motivation for setting up a cross departmental team to handle Brexit. The FCO will have to be reset, rebuilt and re-aimed. If you're really interested in some of the background, there's plenty on https://www.civilserviceworld.com/ (though as you might expect, the overriding theme is 'give us more money'AnneJGP said:
I'll confess my ignorance up-front, but it's the FCO that bothers me most. Everyone there will have spent their careers pursuing EU objectives. How can anyone be expected to do an about-turn like that? And when it's an entire organisation that needs to be turned round, well .....HurstLlama said:
Exactly, Mr. M.. Some people seem to expect that international diplomacy should happen in accordance with news cycles and in public. Well, it don't.John_M said:
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.GIN1138 said:
Into the long grass Brexit goes....PlatoSaid said:On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
I am quite sure that the FCO people will have been having quiet conversations with all sorts of countries for weeks if not months. That is what embassies are for after all. Chats will be had, reports written, position papers prepared, all that has to happen before the politicians get involved and actual negotiations start. Very little of that work will ever appear in media and that does will be by selective leaks by one or more countries trying to exert influence by the back door. ).0 -
In all probability Corbyn will win again, so yes. But if by some miracle he loses I wouldn't categorise a load of Trots and Stalinists slinking off to the Greens as a split.surbiton said:
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.SouthamObserver said:
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
0 -
At least Dave did it at the same timeJosiasJessop said:
So unlike Blair, who fucked up the country and didn't lose, and Brown, who fucked up the country before he lost.surbiton said: 0 -
He didn't have the strength to resist calls for a referendum , then wasn't up to the task of selling what he got from the EU. If he had to do it again, and couldn't avoid a vote, I imagine he would have risked another migrant crisis and Greek crisis and taken longer trying to force a deal.pbr2013 said:
Actually, I will miss Dave a bit. Why did he do it?AndyJS said:David Cameron is no longer leader of the Conservative Party.
Despite Brexit, I will miss the coalition.0 -
How dare you. Brown has the best reputation of all C21 prime ministers. A reputation he will probably keep for some time.JosiasJessop said:
So unlike Blair, who fucked up the country and didn't lose, and Brown, who fucked up the country before he lost.surbiton said:0 -
Just looking at the consensus for Thursday, looks like it has gone from a 5-4 vote for a rate cut to a 6-3 vote for no extra QE or rate cut. Hopefully we're right and Carney holds the course.0
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He won't lose. He might even get 65%.SouthamObserver said:
In all probability Corbyn will win again, so yes. But if by some miracle he loses I wouldn't categorise a load of Trots and Stalinists slinking off to the Greens as a split.surbiton said:
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.SouthamObserver said:
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
0 -
After all, he did save the world!Jonathan said:
How dare you. Brown has the best reputation of all C21 prime ministers. A reputation he will probably keep for some time.JosiasJessop said:
So unlike Blair, who fucked up the country and didn't lose, and Brown, who fucked up the country before he lost.surbiton said:0 -
Story of the end of his candidacy ...Mortimer said:
Failed? Almost works....John_M said:
Male, Pale, Stale. Sadly, I couldn't think of a suitable homonym for 'irrelevant', so it'll have to do.taffys said:''Yes, it's odd how the LDs are basically a party full of old, white, straight men. Even the Tories are a more diverse bunch these days.''
Yes but they are feeling VERY guilty about all of the above, so its OK.
Stale, pale, male fail rale and wail tale?0 -
Given the rush of new joiners it will be a disaster if he gets less than 75%surbiton said:
He won't lose. He might even get 65%.SouthamObserver said:
In all probability Corbyn will win again, so yes. But if by some miracle he loses I wouldn't categorise a load of Trots and Stalinists slinking off to the Greens as a split.surbiton said:
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.SouthamObserver said:
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
0 -
You like coalition government? Filthy neutral scum.kle4 said:
He didn't have the strength to resist calls for a referendum , then wasn't up to the task of selling what he got from the EU. If he had to do it again, and couldn't avoid a vote, I imagine he would have risked another migrant crisis and Greek crisis and taken longer trying to force a deal.pbr2013 said:
Actually, I will miss Dave a bit. Why did he do it?AndyJS said:David Cameron is no longer leader of the Conservative Party.
Despite Brexit, I will miss the coalition. 0 -
And the great irony is that it's another example of Labour's subsequent demise which has been made much much worse by the Blair years. They had the mandate and the majority to bring in PR and they balked at the chance.SouthamObserver said:
In all probability Corbyn will win again, so yes. But if by some miracle he loses I wouldn't categorise a load of Trots and Stalinists slinking off to the Greens as a split.surbiton said:
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.SouthamObserver said:
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.surbiton said:
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.Scott_P said:@JeremyCliffe: Only Labour could have two "unity candidates" for leader https://t.co/7y3sz4jCxp
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Holding a left coalition together is always harder than a right coalition and this was well known and the seeds around the world were already demonstrating the likelihood (and they had already suffered one split 15 years earlier). Stupid, stupid Labour.0
I knew that would illicit such a reaction. 