We’re going to have a Remain supporter Theresa May as Britain’s next Prime Minister.
The Tory establishment with its media friends in tow have managed to hound Brexiteer Andrea Leadsom out of the race, and we’re now looking at a Brexit fudge.
You only had to listen to the Home Secretary and next Prime Minister’s mealy mouthed statement on EU free movement this morning to realise what’s coming. She didn’t say she’d end it, she said she’d control it.
All this talk of “leave means leave” means almost nothing.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
The problem with giving members a choice of "unity" candidate is that quite a few of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up going to Corbyn.
Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
Consistent with what she said about invoking Article 50 at Christmas.
By when the real negotiations will have been concluded out of the public eye.
A deal in under five months? Interesting!
Only the heads of agreement. If you think about it, with the red lines each side has already publicly quoted, there's a fairly straightforward laundry list. Single market membership with all that entails? Or just in goods? Financial passporting, yes or no? Which of the areas of cooperation continue, and which will fall into abeyance?
Sorting out the rules & regs and agreeing transitional arrangements for things like the CFP could take years.
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.
I want Yvette.
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45 Eagle 35 Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2: Corbyn 52 Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Has Eagle lined up her 51 nominations?
Obviously can only be 5, and realistically probably only 4 contenders (plus Corbyn).
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.
I want Yvette.
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45 Eagle 35 Smith 30 (eliminated)
Round 2: Corbyn 52 Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
That's by far the best option. But this is the Labour party you are talking about.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
The problem with giving members a choice of "unity" candidate is that quite a few of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up going to Corbyn.
Shows how much you know the Labour Party. If someone will not vote Eagle, after voting Owen, will not vote for Eagle anyway, unity or not.
Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.
On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
Into the long grass Brexit goes....
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
Exactly, Mr. M.. Some people seem to expect that international diplomacy should happen in accordance with news cycles and in public. Well, it don't.
I am quite sure that the FCO people will have been having quiet conversations with all sorts of countries for weeks if not months. That is what embassies are for after all. Chats will be had, reports written, position papers prepared, all that has to happen before the politicians get involved and actual negotiations start. Very little of that work will ever appear in media and that does will be by selective leaks by one or more countries trying to exert influence by the back door.
The de-selections only come about when a new candidate is selected. It will be , at least, a year before that happens.
It does put May in a bit of a quandary in calling a new election.
Sure she can call one while the existing right-wing PLP is in place and cull a lot of them. But they will be in a position then to oust Corbyn and start to rebuild.
Give Labour 12 months and they can cull most of their right-wing themselves and then whatever rump survives the election will be left-wing nuts with no ability to rebuild the party ensuring Tory rule for decades.
On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
Into the long grass Brexit goes....
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
The fact paranoid people are worried, or at least conflate their idea of leave as the only idea, is why may has less time than she thinks.
I just hope people realise that for the sake of the economy, we're going to tiptoe away from the EU. EEA or whatever doesn't have to be the final destination.
We can't just scream 'Banzai!' and jump out of the EU skyscraper. That's unpossible.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
The problem with giving members a choice of "unity" candidate is that quite a few of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up going to Corbyn.
Shows how much you know the Labour Party. If someone will not vote Eagle, after voting Owen, will not vote for Eagle anyway, unity or not.
But they might give Corbyn the second preference. Why risk that option?
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.
I tend to agree. The MPC can say 'we don't have enough hard data yet to justify a cut, we'll review it next month'
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.
I want Yvette.
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45 Eagle 35 Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2: Corbyn 52 Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
That's somewhat true but someone like Yvette, with good name recognition, could potentially benefit in the same way.
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.
I want Yvette.
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45 Eagle 35 Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2: Corbyn 52 Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
Extraordinary logic !
A MP who voted for Owen, will not vote Eagle in Round 2 because he/she votes Corbyn.
However, if there was only one contest, the same MP, will choose Eagle over Corbyn !!
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
Interesting anecdotal evidence from BBC News: their reporters found that Brexit Tories in North Yorkshire were mostly happy with May as leader, but in Gosport they were overwhelmingly hostile.
On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
Into the long grass Brexit goes....
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
Exactly, Mr. M.. Some people seem to expect that international diplomacy should happen in accordance with news cycles and in public. Well, it don't.
I am quite sure that the FCO people will have been having quiet conversations with all sorts of countries for weeks if not months. That is what embassies are for after all. Chats will be had, reports written, position papers prepared, all that has to happen before the politicians get involved and actual negotiations start. Very little of that work will ever appear in media and that does will be by selective leaks by one or more countries trying to exert influence by the back door.
I'll confess my ignorance up-front, but it's the FCO that bothers me most. Everyone there will have spent their careers pursuing EU objectives. How can anyone be expected to do an about-turn like that? And when it's an entire organisation that needs to be turned round, well .....
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Has Eagle lined up her 51 nominations?
Obviously can only be 5, and realistically probably only 4 contenders (plus Corbyn).
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
Don't let the door hit you on the way out!
More seriously, if the only thing keeping people in one rather than the other was the prospect of the other person winning, a person who is themselves happily staying put, maybe they were in the wrong party to start with.
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
Is this the same Twitter which expected EICIPM to enter Downing Street last year?
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
I wonder of May will take soundings from her new Cabinet regarding a snap GE. Surely it is more likely now she was coronated?
Less likely, surely? They dismay not have wanted the prospect of one floated by candidates, and since they are all united again no need to seek public endorsement of any platform.
Interesting anecdotal evidence from BBC News: their reporters found that Brexit Tories in North Yorkshire were mostly happy with May as leader, but in Gosport they were overwhelmingly hostile.
I live in North Yorkshire. It's so wonderful we'd be happy if Darth Vader was PM.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
The problem with giving members a choice of "unity" candidate is that quite a few of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up going to Corbyn.
Shows how much you know the Labour Party. If someone will not vote Eagle, after voting Owen, will not vote for Eagle anyway, unity or not.
But they might give Corbyn the second preference. Why risk that option?
Equally, someone might vote Owen who would never vote Eagle. Why not let Owen beat Eagle ?
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
I don't know about anyone else. But I don't think Aaron Banks is a reliable narrator.
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.
I want Yvette.
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45 Eagle 35 Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2: Corbyn 52 Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
That's somewhat true but someone like Yvette, with good name recognition, could potentially benefit in the same way.
Why take the risk though. The anti-Corbyn camp needs to poll the membership on which of Eagle, Smith and Watson has the best chance of beating Corbyn, then put that person up and unite behind them. Having two anti-Corbyn options just looks like in fighting and squabbling, plus a certain amount of axing Corbyn because these people covet the leadership rather than him being crap. I think it is time for Corbyn to go, obviously if he sticks around it's great for the Tories, but having no real opposition is turning the UK into a single party state which is bad for the country. I think splitting the ticket and allowing the option of unity votes to transfer to Corbyn in a second round greatly decreases the chance of removing him.
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
I don't know about anyone else. But I don't think Aaron Banks is a reliable narrator.
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
Is this the same Twitter which expected EICIPM to enter Downing Street last year?
I think its the Twitter that expected 50 UKIP MPs last year.
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.
I want Yvette.
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45 Eagle 35 Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2: Corbyn 52 Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
Extraordinary logic !
A MP who voted for Owen, will not vote Eagle in Round 2 because he/she votes Corbyn.
However, if there was only one contest, the same MP, will choose Eagle over Corbyn !!
They can't even get a challenge right. It is truly pathetic.
Why ? I am glad he has put his hat in the ring. It's STV. So, it does not matter how many candidates there are. Eagle won't even fly.
I want Yvette.
Exactly. I do wish people would do some basic reading on the rules before making these comments. Would make for a better forum!
As I said above, there is a fair chance that enough of the second preferences from the anti-Corbyn choice will end up with Corbyn to push him over the line.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45 Eagle 35 Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2: Corbyn 52 Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
Extraordinary logic !
A MP who voted for Owen, will not vote Eagle in Round 2 because he/she votes Corbyn.
However, if there was only one contest, the same MP, will choose Eagle over Corbyn !!
Really ?
There were some people in London who voted for Britain First then Khan iirc. Never underestimate the lack of logic from voters.
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
Twitter should not be used as a barometer of anything except the noisiness of tw@ts.
Twitter awash with people quitting the Tories and joining UKIP today;UKIP site and phone lines crashing due to volume of new membership traffic. Banks says it's game on.
Is this the same Twitter which expected EICIPM to enter Downing Street last year?
I think its the Twitter that expected 50 UKIP MPs last year.
I wouldn't be shocked to discover 50 MPs had voted UKIP at some point though, in the privacy of the booth at euro or locals time
On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
Into the long grass Brexit goes....
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
Exactly, Mr. M.. Some people seem to expect that international diplomacy should happen in accordance with news cycles and in public. Well, it don't.
I am quite sure that the FCO people will have been having quiet conversations with all sorts of countries for weeks if not months. That is what embassies are for after all. Chats will be had, reports written, position papers prepared, all that has to happen before the politicians get involved and actual negotiations start. Very little of that work will ever appear in media and that does will be by selective leaks by one or more countries trying to exert influence by the back door.
I'll confess my ignorance up-front, but it's the FCO that bothers me most. Everyone there will have spent their careers pursuing EU objectives. How can anyone be expected to do an about-turn like that? And when it's an entire organisation that needs to be turned round, well .....
I believe that's part of the motivation for setting up a cross departmental team to handle Brexit. The FCO will have to be reset, rebuilt and re-aimed. If you're really interested in some of the background, there's plenty on https://www.civilserviceworld.com/ (though as you might expect, the overriding theme is 'give us more money' ).
Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.
I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.
That is not to say people stopping borrowing to buy imported stuff on their credit cards (the usual symptom of a "slide in consumer confidence") might not be a bad idea.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.
And Ed Miliband for fucking up the leadership election process.
Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.
I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.
That is not to say people stopping borrowing to buy imported stuff on their credit cards (the usual symptom of a "slide in consumer confidence") might not be a bad idea.
You will have to wait for the PMI's etc. at the beginning of August. Most of the July numbers were taken before the vote when everyone expected a Remain vote.
Next Con leader & Con forecast suspended on Betfair.
Belatedly.
Yep - Betfair do have to v careful with timing of markets though. There is still a very very slim chance that T May may not be the PM after Cameron - so they can't settle that one yet.
I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.
Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.
I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.
That is not to say people stopping borrowing to buy imported stuff on their credit cards (the usual symptom of a "slide in consumer confidence") might not be a bad idea.
The most recent indicator is that Dixons Carphone are being marked down - people think big ticket purchases are going to be deferred in the second half of the year.
It's hard to tell what normal people are thinking. We need a decent summer to cheer everyone up .
I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.
My daughter has funding for a PHD and has been offered a place at a red brick uni to complete this. She has formally accepted and the university have acknowledged that acceptance Lecturers in the department gave sent her congratulatory Emails and stating really looking forward to the research. Her appointed mentors have said to her get started now doing background work even though you start in early October. This my daughter has been doing. The university has now emailed her saying they have amended the conditions and they need her transcript o result from the MSC. The problem is that doesn't meet the new conditions and a further problem is that the results on the transcript are incorrect as my daughter had higher marks. We have told student office , emailed them without luck and we are now seeking interviews with them and the uni administration
Firstly can a university offer a place and then withdraw when they have changed conditions months later and well after the offer was made and acceptance. I consider that to be a contract in place and agreed
1) How the hell do you get anything changed in a uni when's it incorrect and the student office has made a catastrophic error. It's their own document that shows the error clearly. We have been trying to change this since MSC results were given out.
2) If nothing resolved who should e go to the chancellor ? Dean? To press the case.
3) My daughter has done nothing wrong achieved the grades before and even after new conditions and is now again being made unwell by this incredible stress now placed on her.
Any thoughts help would be appreciated because as we all know there is a huge amount riding on an admin mistake. That mistake exacerbated due to a post change of the acceptance conditions which I think is not only unfair but possibly a breach of the original contract of acceptance.
Looking forwards, I'd like Carney to stay the expected interest rate drop and QE now that we have regained political stability. It would take 2-3% off markets but push Sterling above $1.33 and €1.20 and the whining lefties who don't understand the FX markets would shut up about it and stop talking the economy down.
He has no choice. Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone. Already banks reserve ratios have been relaxed. Next is interest rates [ not much to play with ] and, of course, QE.
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
I didn't say increase rates, just to keep everything as it is. If rates are held in place that alone will be seen as a vote of confidence, the markets might lose a bit of froth on the basis of no extra QE, but overall the BoE declaring that there is no need for immediate rate cuts will be seen as a positive for the economy and arrest the slide in consumer confidence once it is widely reported. Plus with slightly stronger Sterling people will feel richer and spend more even if it makes no difference in reality.
I am fascinated by this slide in consumer confidence. Where is it happening? The markets have been a bit squirrelly but they usually are. PMIs were a bit crap but they have been sinking gently for months (referendum or no we were always going to have a down turn in or around 2017). However, "Consumer confidence is dropping like a stone" as per Surbiton or even a "slide", can't see much sign of that.
That is not to say people stopping borrowing to buy imported stuff on their credit cards (the usual symptom of a "slide in consumer confidence") might not be a bad idea.
Consumer confidence can clearly change very rapidly.
I actually think that there is a slim chance rates could rise rather than be cut, and that it could be the right thing to do. Potentially the drop in the pounds is causing inflation, and higher rates are the traditional tool to fight that. They'd support the pound a little, potentially (and counter-intuitively) help avoid softness in the property market, and potentially send a signal that the BoE sees a positive economic outlook.
On Brexit, Theresa May ally Damian Green says new PM "won't start the negotiations until early next year"
Into the long grass Brexit goes....
The Conservative Party is heading for disaster.
It's going to be fine. We need to have the informal talks with the large countries first, outside of the spotlight.
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
Exactly, Mr. M.. Some people seem to expect that international diplomacy should happen in accordance with news cycles and in public. Well, it don't.
I am quite sure that the FCO people will have been having quiet conversations with all sorts of countries for weeks if not months. That is what embassies are for after all. Chats will be had, reports written, position papers prepared, all that has to happen before the politicians get involved and actual negotiations start. Very little of that work will ever appear in media and that does will be by selective leaks by one or more countries trying to exert influence by the back door.
I'll confess my ignorance up-front, but it's the FCO that bothers me most. Everyone there will have spent their careers pursuing EU objectives. How can anyone be expected to do an about-turn like that? And when it's an entire organisation that needs to be turned round, well .....
I believe that's part of the motivation for setting up a cross departmental team to handle Brexit. The FCO will have to be reset, rebuilt and re-aimed. If you're really interested in some of the background, there's plenty on https://www.civilserviceworld.com/ (though as you might expect, the overriding theme is 'give us more money' ).
Thanks for tht link. I shall be interested to browse it.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.
In all probability Corbyn will win again, so yes. But if by some miracle he loses I wouldn't categorise a load of Trots and Stalinists slinking off to the Greens as a split.
David Cameron is no longer leader of the Conservative Party.
Actually, I will miss Dave a bit. Why did he do it?
He didn't have the strength to resist calls for a referendum , then wasn't up to the task of selling what he got from the EU. If he had to do it again, and couldn't avoid a vote, I imagine he would have risked another migrant crisis and Greek crisis and taken longer trying to force a deal.
Just looking at the consensus for Thursday, looks like it has gone from a 5-4 vote for a rate cut to a 6-3 vote for no extra QE or rate cut. Hopefully we're right and Carney holds the course.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.
In all probability Corbyn will win again, so yes. But if by some miracle he loses I wouldn't categorise a load of Trots and Stalinists slinking off to the Greens as a split.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.
In all probability Corbyn will win again, so yes. But if by some miracle he loses I wouldn't categorise a load of Trots and Stalinists slinking off to the Greens as a split.
He won't lose. He might even get 65%.
Given the rush of new joiners it will be a disaster if he gets less than 75%
David Cameron is no longer leader of the Conservative Party.
Actually, I will miss Dave a bit. Why did he do it?
He didn't have the strength to resist calls for a referendum , then wasn't up to the task of selling what he got from the EU. If he had to do it again, and couldn't avoid a vote, I imagine he would have risked another migrant crisis and Greek crisis and taken longer trying to force a deal.
Despite Brexit, I will miss the coalition.
You like coalition government? Filthy neutral scum.
I don't understand this one candidate nonsense. The Labour leader is not elected on FPTP.
As long as Corbyn does not get second votes it will be fine. But this is the Labour party, so it is undoubtedly the case he will get loads of transfers.
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Whichever way you look at it, Labour is splitting. The fault lies with people like Margaret Beckett who lent Corbyn her name in nominating him.
In all probability Corbyn will win again, so yes. But if by some miracle he loses I wouldn't categorise a load of Trots and Stalinists slinking off to the Greens as a split.
And the great irony is that it's another example of Labour's subsequent demise which has been made much much worse by the Blair years. They had the mandate and the majority to bring in PR and they balked at the chance.
Holding a left coalition together is always harder than a right coalition and this was well known and the seeds around the world were already demonstrating the likelihood (and they had already suffered one split 15 years earlier). Stupid, stupid Labour.
Comments
I want Yvette.
It is a shame for Labour that the old fool is trying his hardest to destroy the PLP as an effective alternative to The Tories.
http://tinyurl.com/j8jfjap
We're leaving. We won't get everything we want, but we are leaving.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/angela-eagle-face-deselection-battle-11596763
Poor Argclu is really up to her neck in it.
Is it a new model or a repainted NHS Fibmobile?
Two banks now have serious problems.
Interest rates will not be increased anywhere. The Fed will postpone theirs possibly until June 2017.
Sorting out the rules & regs and agreeing transitional arrangements for things like the CFP could take years.
Imagine a scenario like this;
Round 1:
Corbyn 45
Eagle 35
Smith 20 (eliminated)
Round 2:
Corbyn 52
Eagle 48
It's far better to unite that 55% in the first round and beat him outright. Then the leader can push through rule changes, wait for the £3 memberships to expire, get rid of entryism with the same rules as the Tories and then resign for a full contest.
More seriously, a range of candidates taking Corbyn on in hustings and, hopefully, on TV may sway a few votes against him. The main point of my article remains the same: if Corbyn wins, Labour moves its focus to outside Parliament and so becomes increasingly irrelevant. If he loses, it's a long, hard road back; but there is a road.
Obviously can only be 5, and realistically probably only 4 contenders (plus Corbyn).
It's STV - rank your candidates then they run off
I am quite sure that the FCO people will have been having quiet conversations with all sorts of countries for weeks if not months. That is what embassies are for after all. Chats will be had, reports written, position papers prepared, all that has to happen before the politicians get involved and actual negotiations start. Very little of that work will ever appear in media and that does will be by selective leaks by one or more countries trying to exert influence by the back door.
Sure she can call one while the existing right-wing PLP is in place and cull a lot of them. But they will be in a position then to oust Corbyn and start to rebuild.
Give Labour 12 months and they can cull most of their right-wing themselves and then whatever rump survives the election will be left-wing nuts with no ability to rebuild the party ensuring Tory rule for decades.
We can't just scream 'Banzai!' and jump out of the EU skyscraper. That's unpossible.
Extraordinary logic !
A MP who voted for Owen, will not vote Eagle in Round 2 because he/she votes Corbyn.
However, if there was only one contest, the same MP, will choose Eagle over Corbyn !!
Really ?
The pedigree of unelected PMs is not good. She must aim to emulate Supermac.
That is not to say people stopping borrowing to buy imported stuff on their credit cards (the usual symptom of a "slide in consumer confidence") might not be a bad idea.
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2016/7/8/brexit-prompts-biggest-drop-in-uk-consumer-confidence-in-21-years
It's hard to tell what normal people are thinking. We need a decent summer to cheer everyone up
My daughter has funding for a PHD and has been offered a place at a red brick uni to complete this. She has formally accepted and the university have acknowledged that acceptance Lecturers in the department gave sent her congratulatory Emails and stating really looking forward to the research. Her appointed mentors have said to her get started now doing background work even though you start in early October. This my daughter has been doing. The university has now emailed her saying they have amended the conditions and they need her transcript o result from the MSC. The problem is that doesn't meet the new conditions and a further problem is that the results on the transcript are incorrect as my daughter had higher marks. We have told student office , emailed them without luck and we are now seeking interviews with them and the uni administration
Firstly can a university offer a place and then withdraw when they have changed conditions months later and well after the offer was made and acceptance. I consider that to be a contract in place and agreed
1) How the hell do you get anything changed in a uni when's it incorrect and the student office has made a catastrophic error. It's their own document that shows the error clearly. We have been trying to change this since MSC results were given out.
2) If nothing resolved who should e go to the chancellor ? Dean? To press the case.
3) My daughter has done nothing wrong achieved the grades before and even after new conditions and is now again being made unwell by this incredible stress now placed on her.
Any thoughts help would be appreciated because as we all know there is a huge amount riding on an admin mistake. That mistake exacerbated due to a post change of the acceptance conditions which I think is not only unfair but possibly a breach of the original contract of acceptance.
Help !!
I actually think that there is a slim chance rates could rise rather than be cut, and that it could be the right thing to do. Potentially the drop in the pounds is causing inflation, and higher rates are the traditional tool to fight that. They'd support the pound a little, potentially (and counter-intuitively) help avoid softness in the property market, and potentially send a signal that the BoE sees a positive economic outlook.
Might be a vanishingly slim chance mind you
Utterly transparent.
Despite Brexit, I will miss the coalition.
Stale, pale, male fail rale and wail tale?
Holding a left coalition together is always harder than a right coalition and this was well known and the seeds around the world were already demonstrating the likelihood (and they had already suffered one split 15 years earlier). Stupid, stupid Labour.