politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn v Eagle will decide whether LAB continues to be a pa

Richard_Nabavi said:

A very well-written piece by Southam.

One minor point, though: there seems to be an assumption in the article that the choice is going to be Eagle or Corbyn, but others might fancy their chances as well. Indeed someone else who hasn't been actively involved in trying to dislodge Corbyn might have a better chance of beating him, if he stands. And if he doesn't or isn't able to stand, there would be even more room for other candidates.

Cough. Worth covering certain candidates on odds slightly longer than 20s. (Shields post from Shadsy for benefit of fellow PBers).

surbiton said:

Scott_P said:

The war is over, and yet still they fight on, like stranded Japanese soldiers in the jungle...

@IainDale: .@afneil @JohnRentoul Trade cannot possibly be Osborne. Has to be a Brexiter, as do Chancellor & Foreign Secretary IMHO.

Osborne could easily be Osborne

I agree. It's the only role he's really well suited for.

I will shed no tears if he is excluded from the cabinet, which my iPhone autocorrected to canine.

foxinsoxuk said:

shiney2 said:

grabcocque said:

In the interests of balance, is there anyone who *doesn't* think Labour are doomed?

No they are not doomed.

I doubt anyone here excepting probably NP has ever tried to canvas votes in a Labour heartland seat. The attachment is emotional and familial with a strong dose of dependency.

Whoever owns the 'Labour Party' brand at the end of the current squabble will be one of the two parties of government in the UK. Comrade Jez is strategically correct to wait his enemies out.

As it was for the Liberals a century ago...

You may recall which brand crushed the Liberals..

Jobabob said:

JosiasJessop said:

PlatoSaid said:

numbertwelve said:

Gosh, listening to Angela Eagle is painful, isnt it?

I actually tried to mimic her voice the other day and the nearest I managed involved speaking from the top of my throat. If she spoke from her chest or near her diaphragm - she'd sound totally different.

A bit like a Kipper pretending to be a Tory ...

Britain Firsters pretending to be moderates sound remarkably similar

At least I can now call Plato what she's called so many Tories she's disagreed with in the past: TINO!

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

Scott_P said:

The war is over, and yet still they fight on, like stranded Japanese soldiers in the jungle...

@IainDale: .@afneil @JohnRentoul Trade cannot possibly be Osborne. Has to be a Brexiter, as do Chancellor & Foreign Secretary IMHO.

Osborne could easily be Osborne

I agree. It's the only role he's really well suited for.

I will shed no tears if he is excluded from the cabinet, which my iPhone autocorrected to canine.

My phone autocorrects europhile to urophile. I suggested to @paul_bedfordshire the other day that he had had a hand in programming it.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

JosiasJessop said:

Jobabob said:

JosiasJessop said:

PlatoSaid said:

numbertwelve said:

Gosh, listening to Angela Eagle is painful, isnt it?

I actually tried to mimic her voice the other day and the nearest I managed involved speaking from the top of my throat. If she spoke from her chest or near her diaphragm - she'd sound totally different.

A bit like a Kipper pretending to be a Tory ...

Britain Firsters pretending to be moderates sound remarkably similar

At least I can now call Plato what she's called so many Tories she's disagreed with in the past: TINO!

Whats TINO

Tory in name only

Pulpstar said:

Wonder if May might give Osborne her old job...

Minister for uncontrolled migration?

Jobabob said:

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

Scott_P said:

The war is over, and yet still they fight on, like stranded Japanese soldiers in the jungle...

@IainDale: .@afneil @JohnRentoul Trade cannot possibly be Osborne. Has to be a Brexiter, as do Chancellor & Foreign Secretary IMHO.

Osborne could easily be Osborne

I agree. It's the only role he's really well suited for.

I will shed no tears if he is excluded from the cabinet, which my iPhone autocorrected to canine.

My phone autocorrects europhile to urophile. I suggested to @paul_bedfordshire the other day that he had had a hand in programming it.

Did you? I didnt see it.

I think you are taking the Piss

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

Scott_P said:

The war is over, and yet still they fight on, like stranded Japanese soldiers in the jungle...

@IainDale: .@afneil @JohnRentoul Trade cannot possibly be Osborne. Has to be a Brexiter, as do Chancellor & Foreign Secretary IMHO.

Osborne could easily be Osborne

I agree. It's the only role he's really well suited for.

I will shed no tears if he is excluded from the cabinet, which my iPhone autocorrected to canine.

Before the GE I suggested that Osborne was acting as the Austerity Chancellor, so that whoever took over would not have that pain on their shoulders. His recent abandonment of he deficit reduction after Brexit seems to be the final move in that plan - although he'd undoubtedly have preferred it if he'd actually managed to reduce the deficit!

Expect the next chancellor not to want to navigate the stormy seas of debt, and instead fend off the oily oceans of a recession.

Artist said:

Pong said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tim Farron is just plain silly - trying to force an election as the Government does not have a mandate to take us out of Europe

Regardless of what Mr Farron thinks, It's very much in Theresa's interests to have a workable majority with the bastards onside - especially since the politics of the next few years will be on the bastards territory.

Right now she has a tiny majority, the bastards are in disarray, with the media still gunning for them - and the nutters opposite her are in civil war.

If you were Theresa May, why wouldn't you call an election?

Recent polls have a Tory lead of 4%-8%, would that be enough to be confident that they'll improve their position? There could also still be a bit of a Brexit hangover for remain (Lib Dems) and leave (UKIP)

I would expect double digit leads within a month. It will soon be 40%'s for the Conservatives, unless Mrs May upsets the LEAVErs badly.

I 100% agree with SO.

I don't see any positive in the Labour party basically destroying itself. This isn't usual party-infighting which a party at some stage can actually come back from. This is basically the Labour party ensuring that for the foreseeable future, we have no real tangible opposition to HM's government. We will rely on the press as the political opposition, which for me doesn't seem too ideal for a country which considers itself a parliamentary democracy. The Labour party will most likely split, and FPTP will punish both 'Labour' parties - but especially the breakaway party - severely for this. Once Corbyn wins the leadership contest, I have no idea how he will even begin to construct a shadow cabinet. I can easily see mass deselections happening. Corbyn will be emboldened in victory, and realise that a PLP without other militant leftists such as himself will be impossible to work with. The Labour party as we know it is over.

What this tells you, is that much of the Labour party membership really does not have the working class' best interests at heart. Those who do, understand that the most effective way to improve the lives of the poorest and vulnerable people in this country is through government. Those who seek Labour to become some sort bizarre 'movement' have yet to explain how Labour being a social movement which ignores parliamentary democracy will be more effective in changing people's lives for the better. The SNP, the most competent centre-left force in the country is an option only Scots can vote for. UKIP's fox has basically been shot, and they seem unable to successfully organise themselves to even get to LD levels of success under Charles Kennedy, let alone be the main opposition. The LDs are totally irrelevant.

I can only hope that May is as competent and as much of a 'One Nation' Tory as she appears to be.

shiney2 said:

I doubt anyone here excepting probably NP has ever tried to canvas votes in a Labour heartland seat.

I spent the much of 2014 and 2015 doing better than that, canvassing votes and running the campaign in the only seat that Labour gained off the Tories in the entire West or East Midlands.

shiney2 said:

Whoever owns the 'Labour Party' brand at the end of the current squabble will be one of the two parties of government in the UK. Comrade Jez is strategically correct to wait his enemies out.

I don't honestly think that I'll see another Labour government should Corbyn prevail. Labour will be further from government now than the party was in the immediate aftermath of the 1983 general election, the difference from 1983 being that Militant is now running the leader's office, that most of that brand loyalty is long gone and that should there be a political realignment far more than 10% of the party's MPs will leave.

Scott_P said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

You seem very sure May is going to sell Brexit out

Not at all. I am convinced she is going to deliver the best possible Out we can get.

What is cheering me up is that the IDS resurrection is over, as I am equally confident he and his team would have delivered the worst possible Out we could get.

Oh dear. I agree with Scott.

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A very well-written piece by Southam.

One minor point, though: there seems to be an assumption in the article that the choice is going to be Eagle or Corbyn, but others might fancy their chances as well. Indeed someone else who hasn't been actively involved in trying to dislodge Corbyn might have a better chance of beating him, if he stands. And if he doesn't or isn't able to stand, there would be even more room for other candidates.

Someone who looks like a PM in waiting might be helpful.

Yes, well they've got one sitting on the back benches, but they don't want to select her.

Mr. Jessop, if the Conservatives win in 2020, which seems possible, Cameron may wish to delay to avoid damaging the Party [I think it matters less when your party's in opposition and the winner was from a different wing of the party].

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A very well-written piece by Southam.

One minor point, though: there seems to be an assumption in the article that the choice is going to be Eagle or Corbyn, but others might fancy their chances as well. Indeed someone else who hasn't been actively involved in trying to dislodge Corbyn might have a better chance of beating him, if he stands. And if he doesn't or isn't able to stand, there would be even more room for other candidates.

Someone who looks like a PM in waiting might be helpful.

Unfortunately for Labour anyone who looks remotely like a "PM in waiting" will be denounced as a 'Red Tory' scum and so forth.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The one flip side of today is PB will finally be able to devote some time to the White House race.

In normal times we'd have a daily US thread, but the last White House thread was nearly six weeks ago.

Not to mention time for an AV thread.

Richard_Nabavi said:

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A very well-written piece by Southam.

One minor point, though: there seems to be an assumption in the article that the choice is going to be Eagle or Corbyn, but others might fancy their chances as well. Indeed someone else who hasn't been actively involved in trying to dislodge Corbyn might have a better chance of beating him, if he stands. And if he doesn't or isn't able to stand, there would be even more room for other candidates.

Someone who looks like a PM in waiting might be helpful.

Yes, well they've got one sitting on the back benches, but they don't want to select her.

What do you possibly gain in running Eagle ahead of Yvette btw ?

I'm guessing Tom Watson has persuaded Eagle to lay down her political life. Bit cowardly that he didn't do it himself - I think he might have half a chance vs Jezza.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Announcement at 5.00pm

From who?

SandyRentool said:

nunu said:

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A very well-written piece by Southam.

One minor point, though: there seems to be an assumption in the article that the choice is going to be Eagle or Corbyn, but others might fancy their chances as well. Indeed someone else who hasn't been actively involved in trying to dislodge Corbyn might have a better chance of beating him, if he stands. And if he doesn't or isn't able to stand, there would be even more room for other candidates.

Someone who looks like a PM in waiting might be helpful.

Like??

Hilary Benn

You're joking. Even Keir would be better than him granted he's from that north London clique but still he can't hold a candle to his late father.

surbiton said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Scott_P said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

You seem very sure May is going to sell Brexit out

Not at all. I am convinced she is going to deliver the best possible Out we can get.

What is cheering me up is that the IDS resurrection is over, as I am equally confident he and his team would have delivered the worst possible Out we could get.

It seems quite amazing to me that we don't have a scooby what sort of out she would even prefer because she has never been put on the spot by the leadership process.

She really has gone through the whole loop without really being questioned. Not her fault though. Everyone knifed each other out. She just walked through the carnage.

This whole process has frankly been a disgrace to democracy.When you put the media crucifixion of Leadsom against the backdrop of the Jo Cox murder,Farage being harassed into quitting,the bullying of MPs by momentum ; the vitriol on twitter etc you have to wonder whether our democracy is going to survive in its current form.

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Announcement at 5.00pm

From whom, about what?

Falconer - about resigning?

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Announcement at 5.00pm

From who?

1922 Committee

Jon Trickett going big on conspiracy theories here. Not a terribly convincing performance.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Announcement at 5.00pm

From whom, about what?

Falconer - about resigning?

He's standing for the leadership but will withdraw after 12 hours, known as a Chukka?

PrinceofTaranto said:

surbiton said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Scott_P said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

You seem very sure May is going to sell Brexit out

Not at all. I am convinced she is going to deliver the best possible Out we can get.

What is cheering me up is that the IDS resurrection is over, as I am equally confident he and his team would have delivered the worst possible Out we could get.

It seems quite amazing to me that we don't have a scooby what sort of out she would even prefer because she has never been put on the spot by the leadership process.

She really has gone through the whole loop without really being questioned. Not her fault though. Everyone knifed each other out. She just walked through the carnage.

This whole process has frankly been a disgrace to democracy.When you put the media crucifixion of Leadsom against the backdrop of the Jo Cox murder,Farage being harassed into quitting,the bullying of MPs by momentum ; the vitriol on twitter etc you have to wonder whether our democracy is going to survive in its current form.

Part of being suitable to be PM is being experienced enough to handle the media without inadvertently or otherwise saying something that causes a shitstorm.

Dear all - many thanks for your very kind comments and incisive criticisms. This is how I would have ended the article in a slightly longer form:

Sadly, though, I suspect that I will be on the losing side. Labour members will choose the extra-Parliamentary route and the party is likely to go into the next general election as a movement rather than one that aspires to govern. If that election comes soon, Jeremy Corbyn will once again sit in front of a parliamentary party that has no confidence in him, but which he and his allies can – through deselections actual and threatened – mould into something new. If May waits, that process will take place during the current Parliament. What happens then will have to be the subject of a different piece penned sometime in the future.

My view is that if Corbyn does win again, Labour is bound to split, if only because a number of current Labour MPs are going to be deselected and will no longer sit on the labour benches. Others will join them. Corbyn and his allies will welcome that split. They want to take Labour onto the streets. Parliament is bourgeois. Socialism will only be delivered when the proletariat rise up. A few more years of Tory rule should hasten that. I'd laugh at the stupidity if it were not so sad.

I am 52, Corbyn is 67. I will not live to see another Labour government; Jezza will not live to see his socialist revolution. If I am lucky, a new party of the centre left may govern before I snuff it, but I am not counting in it. Thirty-five very stupid Labour MPs effectively destroyed their party by opening it up to the hard left and assorted useful idiots. They must hate themselves. I genuinely feel sorry for them.

On another note, my Twitter account has never seen such action. The power of Political Betting :-)

PlatoSaid said:

rottenborough said:

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A very well-written piece by Southam.

One minor point, though: there seems to be an assumption in the article that the choice is going to be Eagle or Corbyn, but others might fancy their chances as well. Indeed someone else who hasn't been actively involved in trying to dislodge Corbyn might have a better chance of beating him, if he stands. And if he doesn't or isn't able to stand, there would be even more room for other candidates.

Someone who looks like a PM in waiting might be helpful.

Unfortunately for Labour anyone who looks remotely like a "PM in waiting" will be denounced as a 'Red Tory' scum and so forth.

Quite. It's an invidious position.

They don’t even need to look like a PM in waiting, Ms Eagle’s Twitter feed has been wall to wall vitriol by Momentum for the best part of the day – she’s in for a very tough ride imo.

Has anyone heard from Louise Mensch

surbiton said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rottenborough said:

Presumably you mean Yvette?

Yep. She's not wonderful, and she's certainly not my cup of tea, but at least she'd be a perfectly credible alternative PM. You can easily picture her handling PMQs well, representing the UK at international summits, chairing COBRA, or speaking on behalf of the nation when major events occur. There aren't many other Labour MPs of whom one can say that.

Ironically, another point I agree with Richard. She is, by far, the most capable of the lot. Shame her husband is not in the HoC.

But Yvette would do.

I highly suspect Balls will be back if Corbyn has gone.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

surbiton said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Scott_P said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

You seem very sure May is going to sell Brexit out

Not at all. I am convinced she is going to deliver the best possible Out we can get.

What is cheering me up is that the IDS resurrection is over, as I am equally confident he and his team would have delivered the worst possible Out we could get.

It seems quite amazing to me that we don't have a scooby what sort of out she would even prefer because she has never been put on the spot by the leadership process.

She really has gone through the whole loop without really being questioned. Not her fault though. Everyone knifed each other out. She just walked through the carnage.

This whole process has frankly been a disgrace to democracy.When you put the media crucifixion of Leadsom against the backdrop of the Jo Cox murder,Farage being harassed into quitting,the bullying of MPs by momentum ; the vitriol on twitter etc you have to wonder whether our democracy is going to survive in its current form.

Part of being suitable to be PM is being experienced enough to handle the media without inadvertently or otherwise saying something that causes a shitstorm.

My point is much wider than that.The Media are only part of the problem though their viciousness and destructiveness seems to grow by the day and in my view is both reflecting and fuelling the hatred we are seeing generally in the political process .

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Has anyone heard from Louise Mensch

Big fan of May.

Always was.

Didn't you know?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Has anyone heard from Louise Mensch

I don't normally follow Twitter (another thing Cameron got right), but Mensch's feed has been funny. The last time we saw political repositioning so fast was Nick's transfer from electable Blairism to unelectable Corbynism.

27 minutes ago:
I'm a Tory #partyofgovernment

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Has anyone heard from Louise Mensch

Big fan of May.

Always was.

Didn't you know?

She was always at war with Eurasia.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Has anyone heard from Louise Mensch

Louise moves on very quickly. She's like a shark, has to keep swimming in the Twitter ocean.

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

david_herdson said:

That kind of thinking is, frankly, indulgent. Political parties should not aspire to be pure expressions of democracy; they should be vehicles through which democracy can work. An excessive regard for members' views misses the point of what a party is for.

If members don't decide what the party is for, who does? Do you envisage a sort of deus ex machina? It can't be the MPs, who as I and every other MP and ex-MP well know are mostly elected not for their great wisdom and thought but because they represent their parties. If they in turn were to decide the purpose of the party, we would have a completely empty circular phenomenon.

The issue hasn't arisen very often since it's usually pretty well-defined what parties are for, and people join them accotrdingly and sit comfortably in them as MPs or ordinary members. But in a time of questioning of orthodox thinking, who decides if a party should change?

The members will decide what Labour is for. That is the entire basis of my article. If they re-elect Corbyn they will have decided that Labour should primarily be an extra-parliamentary movement that focuses on promoting their views rather than on aspiring to be a party of government. As a result, Labour will continue to lose seats, votes, relevance and influence. But the members will feel good about themselves, so that's a positive :-)

I think Labour needs to do away with the £3 voters and moving back to an electoral college. MPs get 40% of the say and members/union members share the remainder.

1922 have now ruled.

One of the first tasks to confront a new prime minister, after an audience with the Queen, is to write “the letter of last resort”
...
As prime minister, with ultimate responsibility for Britain’s nuclear deterrent, May has to write the letter, in her own hand, giving quite detailed instructions about what the UK’s response should be in the event of a pre-emptive nuclear attack.

Well worth reading the whole section:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live

16:58

David Cameron is no longer leader of the Conservative Party.

1922 Cttee chairman Graham Brady: "I can confirm that Mrs May has been elected leader of the Conservative Party with immediate effect."

TheScreamingEagles said:

1922 Cttee chairman Graham Brady: "I can confirm that Mrs May has been elected leader of the Conservative Party with immediate effect."

Hooray!!!

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I'm wonderIng if Lord (Neil) Kinnock might put himself forward. In good health, only a year or two older than Corbyn, widely respected in party. Could serve a couple of years implement reforms to sort the mess out and stand down in late 2018 to give his sucsessor time to bed in before 2020 election?

I cant think of anyone else who could avoid utter disaster. Batley means he could resign from Lords and be parachuted into commons unopposed.

Any odds available?

No, I proposed the same idea a few days ago. No sign of a book available on it. It is a good idea.