politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn v Eagle will decide whether LAB continues to be a pa

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

If Corbyn wins again, the party will split.

That is going to happen anyway.

15 years of Blairite shortlisting means the PLP is far to the right of both members and supporters.

If Corbyn survives there's a way to have the PLP survive as a Parliamentary Party united and led by Corbyn, and that would surely be mandatory reselection. If there was mandatory reselection then Corbyn could be supported by the vast majority of the MPs his party has after the next election.

Of course 40 seats could also be a majority of the seats his party wins but that's by the by.

Theresa PM wednesday afternoon

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/752516843886215168

Handover Wednesday.

Theresa needs to get cracking on her new cabinet then.

No sign of a ballot among members. I doubt if that will go down well but if she has a strong start and the pound climbs just before the holiday season the membership may swallow it.

Bah. Another tawdry round of applause and unconvincing ovation, as per Blair.

I don't despise Cameron, for all my criticism of his behaviour in recent months, but he should go at the first opportunity instead of clinging on for faux praise.

Had kind of assumed you lived in Southam...

Had not assumed you were called Joff! Not heard that one before :-)

Great piece though, spot on

Morris_Dancer said:

Bah. Another tawdry round of applause and unconvincing ovation, as per Blair.

I don't despise Cameron, for all my criticism of his behaviour in recent months, but he should go at the first opportunity instead of clinging on for faux praise.

Cameron led a round of applause for Blair. I can't see Corbyn returning the favour to Cameron.

Interesting article @SouthamObserver, many thanks.

Good afternoon, everybody.

Morris_Dancer said:

Bah. Another tawdry round of applause and unconvincing ovation, as per Blair.

Jez will get his backbenches up for an ovation the way Cameron did?

That seems really unlikely to me. Corbyn wouldn't even share a platform with him in the EU ref!

Afternoon all

Let me join the chorus of praise for your debut piece, SO. The only problem is it's so well written and so well argued I find it very hard to comment except to agree with every word.

I commented earlier today on the disconnection between senior members in a party and the membership and that has afflicted all parties in recent times. As an LD, the "shock" of 2015 was less of a shock to those who had seen council seats lost and members disappear since 2010 but the Party was in Government and had some influence.

There's the trade off - the purity of principle versus the practicality of power. I honestly believe Corbyn wants to be Prime Minister but he doesn't want to get his ideological hands dirty. The compromises of Blair and Wilson don't work for him. The people have to come to him, he won't go to them.

The corollary of that is the powerlessness of power - when parties in Government have no purpose and are just drifting along in Government but not governing. After 18 years and 13 years respectively, the Conservative and Labour parties were exhausted and the problem is the ability to think and re-invent in power is very limited.

Morris_Dancer said:

Bah. Another tawdry round of applause and unconvincing ovation, as per Blair.

I don't despise Cameron, for all my criticism of his behaviour in recent months, but he should go at the first opportunity instead of clinging on for faux praise.

It's not that. Needs to be fully ratified by the Tory party board and plus Theresa May doesn't want to do PMQs with less than 24 hours preparation.

Mr. Jessop, perhaps you're right.

Mr. NorthWales, a fair point.

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sky - Dave says new PM by Wednesday evening

Victory for Corbyn as he sees off his first Conservative leader.

Tipped at evens by yours truly...

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sky - Dave says new PM by Wednesday evening

Victory for Corbyn as he sees off his first Conservative leader.

Cameron saw off Miliband, Brown, and technically Blair.

But in the case of Blair, I don't think it was CMD that did the seeing off!

May appoints a new cabinet while Osborne is out of the country...

Unlucky

RodCrosby said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Bah. Another tawdry round of applause and unconvincing ovation, as per Blair.

I don't despise Cameron, for all my criticism of his behaviour in recent months, but he should go at the first opportunity instead of clinging on for faux praise.

The Queen wasn't available before Wednesday so seems it is as quick as possible

HMQ's 13th PM kissing hands on the 13th...

Inauspicious? Unlucky? For whom?

There does seem a reasonable chance that May will be her last Prime Minister. After all, Her Maj is 90 and May while taking a hot seat at a tough time, has the unanimous support of her rivals, one opposition party imploding, one only interested in Scotland and one with a mere 8 MPs. She could last some years and by then even if the Queen is still alive it seems very possible Charles or even William will have been made Regent.

TGOHF said:

Victory for Corbyn as he sees off his first Conservative leader.

stodge said:

Afternoon all

Let me join the chorus of praise for your debut piece, SO. The only problem is it's so well written and so well argued I find it very hard to comment except to agree with every word.

I commented earlier today on the disconnection between senior members in a party and the membership and that has afflicted all parties in recent times. As an LD, the "shock" of 2015 was less of a shock to those who had seen council seats lost and members disappear since 2010 but the Party was in Government and had some influence.

There's the trade off - the purity of principle versus the practicality of power. I honestly believe Corbyn wants to be Prime Minister but he doesn't want to get his ideological hands dirty. The compromises of Blair and Wilson don't work for him. The people have to come to him, he won't go to them.

The corollary of that is the powerlessness of power - when parties in Government have no purpose and are just drifting along in Government but not governing. After 18 years and 13 years respectively, the Conservative and Labour parties were exhausted and the problem is the ability to think and re-invent in power is very limited.

JC - and most Labour activists - believe that Labour is only ever in office, never in power.

Most left activists know that their values are opposed by most of the electorate. Now would be a good time for UKIP to call for socialism to be criminalised - except, of course, that it hasn't got a leader either.

Well after all this excitement I am pleased with Andrea Leadsom for her gracious resignation, delighted we have the best person for PM, also that she will be in post in 48 hours, the market reaction is positive, and labour are self destructing and, after Theresa May's earlier speech, near suicidal as she moves onto their territory.

What is there not to like

SimonStClare said:

ydoethur said:

Just seen Eagle's launch. What a flop. The hunt for any well-known journalist was just embarrassing.

An astute politician would have postponed it 24 hours.

A good politician would have launched a week ago!

Angela Eagle was 15 minutes into her launch when Leadsom stood down and the press deserted her. - It was horrible to watch, but quite beyond her control imo.

Fair play to you Simon.

Yes, it was bad luck really. Let's face it, none of us had a scooby that Leadsom would quit today. She was 7-1 to do so by the end of July as recently as this morning!

It has been fascinating to watch the parties in action today.

Tories stating that 9 weeks of infighting would do irreparable damage to the party, so they called it off

Labour have been at it for 9 months, and are digging in for the next 9 months.

Awesome

PlatoSaid said:

ydoethur said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sky - Dave says new PM by Wednesday evening

Victory for Corbyn as he sees off his first Conservative leader.

Cameron saw off Miliband, Brown, and technically Blair.

But in the case of Blair, I don't think it was CMD that did the seeing off!

Watson must surely have the claim to Blair's demise.

Watson would not have acted without orders. He has neither the ability nor the courage to lead a coup himself, as he has just demonstrated with devastating clarity.

Miss Plato, Blair wrote his own demise with the needless promise he'd go to distract attention from the heart murmur or suchlike he had.

I agree Watson had a significant hand in it, but Blair was his own worst enemy in that regard.

Jobabob said:

SimonStClare said:

ydoethur said:

Just seen Eagle's launch. What a flop. The hunt for any well-known journalist was just embarrassing.

An astute politician would have postponed it 24 hours.

A good politician would have launched a week ago!

Angela Eagle was 15 minutes into her launch when Leadsom stood down and the press deserted her. - It was horrible to watch, but quite beyond her control imo.

Fair play to you Simon.

Yes, it was bad luck really. Let's face it, none of us had a scooby that Leadsom would quit today. She was 7-1 to do so by the end of July as recently as this morning!

The thing was - we did know from 11.30 that the Leadsom thing was about to happen.

Eagle could easily have pushed back by an hour or two and got a bit more than 3 minutes of live air time. But she failed to even notice. Amateur doesn't even cover it.

Jobabob said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

If Corbyn wins again, the party will split.

That is going to happen anyway.

15 years of Blairite shortlisting means the PLP is far to the right of both members and supporters.

Far to the right of members, yes. Far to the right of the 2015 vote, no. You are entirely wrong about that, hence why you and your ilk will trigger the destruction of a once great party. A sad day, but don't tell us you weren't warned.

I remember the Tories here warning Brown would be a disaster. The Labour supporters here said Balls.

I remember the Tories here saying Ed Miliband would be a disaster. The Labour supporters on here said Balls.

And now we have the Tories saying Corbyn will be disaster. The Labour supporters can no longer say Balls but Eagle (who would be a disaster as well).

People who keep making the same mistakes over a period of a decade or so have learned nothing. Darwin wrote a lot on that..... I just say it's stupid.

Parties demanding a GE when the PM changes mid term is so token at this point, why even bother?

Bit worried May won't even try for single market, but that was always the risk, and not having any mandate from the members she might have gotten if she'd argued it in a contest, assuming she may have, she has little power to argue for it now. But she's still wrong the referendum was clear on FOM. It was suggestive on FOM, but not clear, because peopel don't explain why they voted on the ballots.

MarkHopkins said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/752516843886215168

Cam does PMQ's and then heads off to see HMQ on Wednesday afternoon?

And then, like that, he's gone...

Scott_P said:

The trail of miserable Brexiteers across our screens continues.

Which is nice...

You seem very sure May is going to sell Brexit out

GIN1138 said:

MarkHopkins said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/752516843886215168

Cam does PMQ's and then heads off to see HMQ on Wednesday afternoon?

And then, like that, he's gone...

I bet he's going to be fairly relieved.

So, an bets on when we'll get the first volume of his memoirs? "Cameron: the pig years" ?

If at the next election I have a choice between an hard left Labour party and moderate Labour party(committed to Leaving the E.U) I will vote for the former. However they could split the vot in which case my seat becomes a marginal again and voting Conservative means I could actually get a Tory MP in Ealing North.

A lot comes down to which way Steven Pound MP deciedes to stand as I think he has built up a strongish personal vote and also on who gets the brand.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tim Farron is just plain silly - trying to force an election as the Government does not have a mandate to take us out of Europe

Mandate:52 - 48

The war is over, and yet still they fight on, like stranded Japanese soldiers in the jungle...

@IainDale: .@afneil @JohnRentoul Trade cannot possibly be Osborne. Has to be a Brexiter, as do Chancellor & Foreign Secretary IMHO.

GIN1138 said:

MarkHopkins said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/752516843886215168

Cam does PMQ's and then heads off to see HMQ on Wednesday afternoon?

And then, like that, he's gone...

Just in time for some surfing in Cornwall over the holidays.

Chillax dudes!

david_herdson said:

That kind of thinking is, frankly, indulgent. Political parties should not aspire to be pure expressions of democracy; they should be vehicles through which democracy can work. An excessive regard for members' views misses the point of what a party is for.

If members don't decide what the party is for, who does? Do you envisage a sort of deus ex machina? It can't, surely, be the MPs, who as I and every other MP and ex-MP well know are mostly elected not for their great wisdom and thought but because they represent their parties. If they in turn were to decide the purpose of the party, we would have a completely empty circular phenomenon.

The issue hasn't arisen very often since it's usually pretty well-defined what parties are for, and people join them accotrdingly and sit comfortably in them as MPs or ordinary members. But in a time of questioning of orthodox thinking, who decides if a party should change?

RodCrosby said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Bah. Another tawdry round of applause and unconvincing ovation, as per Blair.

I don't despise Cameron, for all my criticism of his behaviour in recent months, but he should go at the first opportunity instead of clinging on for faux praise.

The Queen wasn't available before Wednesday so seems it is as quick as possible

HMQ's 13th PM kissing hands on the 13th...

Inauspicious? Unlucky? For whom?

George III's 13th prime minister was Spencer Perceval. Not that that was unlucky.

Victoria never reached 13 PMs due to Palmerston, Gladstone, Salisbury and the like holding office for so long.

MikeL said:

Re an early GE:

May is guaranteed to be PM of a Majority Con Government for the next 4 years.

Majority of 16 is small but perfectly big enough with a split and chaotic opposition.

And what would she gain - one extra year - the difference between next GE in 2021 rather than 2020 is trivial.

And there is a risk - any election is unpredictable - at this time anything could happen. Just because Lab is in disarray doesn't mean something else unexpected might happen. Who knows - UKIP may campaign saying May will backtrack on Brexit and make massive gains - from Lab and Con - costing May her majority.

And finally - May said when she launched her campaign no GE until 2020. She is a straightforward politician and she has a huge job to do - would it really be a good start to do a massive U-turn which looks opportunistic? Which may then massively backfire.

Not so sure it is trivial. With an Autumn election the difference is 18 months, not a year. The public finances for 19/20 already look terrible and no foundation for a re-election campaign. Brexit could conceivably be done within 5 years whereas in three years possibly still in progress or we could be in the immediate post-Brexit aftershock. Plus if she goes now she gets a mandate even if Brexit turns sour; if she waits and Brexit turns sour she is straight into Gordon brown territory,,,.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tim Farron is just plain silly - trying to force an election as the Government does not have a mandate to take us out of Europe

Such comments are for party consumption only – and for everyone else’s amusement.

shiney2 said:

grabcocque said:

In the interests of balance, is there anyone who *doesn't* think Labour are doomed?

No they are not doomed.

I doubt anyone here excepting probably NP has ever tried to canvas votes in a Labour heartland seat. The attachment is emotional and familial with a strong dose of dependency.

Whoever owns the 'Labour Party' brand at the end of the current squabble will be one of the two parties of government in the UK. Comrade Jez is strategically correct to wait his enemies out.

As it was for the Liberals a century ago...

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, Farron's a silly sausage.

Mr. Jessop, doubt it'll be before 2020. How long did Blair wait?

(fx: checks wiki)

2010, so a little over three years.
Did Brown do an official autobiography?

Pretty good outcome. Sorted within three weeks of referendum. Experienced leader, was remain in a low profile unenthusiastic way and previously Eurosceptic. Now confirmed will see Brexit through but will be EFTA/EEA not some Maoist WTO plan. Centrist enough to unite both sides of party.

Leadsom did the decent thing and put the Nation first. Kudos to her.

Can now look forward to cheaper food, increased trade with and importance for the commonwealth, no more CAP subsidies to rich landowners, decent fisheries conservation measures, no more of ministers pushing through things the electorate wont wear as compulsory under EU law. Never never never to Euro, burgundy passports and union jack on Driving licenses, Happy Days.

Meanwhile Labour seem to think they are in a Citizen Smith sequel....

Scott_P said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

You seem very sure May is going to sell Brexit out

Not at all. I am convinced she is going to deliver the best possible Out we can get.

What is cheering me up is that the IDS resurrection is over, as I am equally confident he and his team would have delivered the worst possible Out we could get.

It seems quite amazing to me that we don't have a scooby what sort of out she would even prefer because she has never been put on the spot by the leadership process.

MontyHall said:

Jobabob said:

MontyHall said:

ydoethur said:

MontyHall said:

Jobabob said:

NickPalmer said:

Good to see Southam doing a lead piece and expanding our range of intelligent lead writers - surely one of the best in the political world.

SNIP

Incidentally, the problem with coronations is not that they result in a different choice, but that they don't get the membership buying into them. Corbyn's position is stronger than Gordon's would have been against a challenge, because Corbyn has a mandate. It's possible that if May runs into difficulties, she may wish she'd had one too.

Hypothetical as there was no challenge against Brown. There was a NCV against Corbyn which he lost 172-44. And he's still there. He has a mandate to remain from a tiny proportion of the electorate and a mandate to piss off from the vastly larger proportion of the Labour electorate represented by the 172.

How did Labour MP's vote in the election which he won?

Seems unlikely he got more than the 20-odd votes from his genuine nominees. But with 1M1V, we'll never know.

Oh I didn't realise there wasn't a way of knowing.

Well if all that's changed is that the MPs who didn't support him then are angry with him now, I would warn the Labour Party against overthrowing him for their own good. They might well lose a lot of committed support to gain a few approving nods from people that will vote Tory anyway

Total and utter rubbish. I'm sure some centrist sensible Conservatives would welcome his deposition on the basis that they believe in parliamentary democracy and upholding its principles. Indeed some will even go as far to say they don't want to see a great party of state destroyed despite being opponents of the party. Some Tories on here have said as much, and that does them great credit.

Yet the idea that the only key group who will celebrate Corbyn's departure are Tory voters is demonstrable rubbish. What about the millions of centrist and centre-left Labour supporters who are left cold by his insane far left agenda?

It seems your knowledge of the Labour coalition is equal or less than your grasp of the Omov system that elected Corbyn in the first place.

Life in a bubble

A pointless and vacuous response that fails to address a single point I have made.

Monty opens a door. Behind it is a pointless and vacuous response. Do you switch?

Scott_P said:

The war is over, and yet still they fight on, like stranded Japanese soldiers in the jungle...

@IainDale: .@afneil @JohnRentoul Trade cannot possibly be Osborne. Has to be a Brexiter, as do Chancellor & Foreign Secretary IMHO.

LOL.

Pong said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tim Farron is just plain silly - trying to force an election as the Government does not have a mandate to take us out of Europe

Regardless of what Mr Farron thinks, It's very much in Theresa's interests to have a workable majority with the bastards subdued and onside - especially since the politics of the next few years will be on the bastards territory.

Right now she has a tiny majority, the bastards are in disarray, with the media still gunning for them - and the nutters opposite her are in civil war.

If you were Theresa May, why wouldn't you call an election?

Because she can't without repealing a law. And that takes distraction/effort better used elsewhere.

david_herdson said:

RodCrosby said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Bah. Another tawdry round of applause and unconvincing ovation, as per Blair.

I don't despise Cameron, for all my criticism of his behaviour in recent months, but he should go at the first opportunity instead of clinging on for faux praise.

The Queen wasn't available before Wednesday so seems it is as quick as possible

HMQ's 13th PM kissing hands on the 13th...

Inauspicious? Unlucky? For whom?

George III's 13th prime minister was Spencer Perceval. Not that that was unlucky.

Victoria never reached 13 PMs due to Palmerston, Gladstone, Salisbury and the like holding office for so long.

I do hope that doesn't happen to May! Perceval was also of course George's last PM in practice as in 1812 a Regency had been declared.

Indeed, Victoria had just 4 PMs from 1867 onwards - Disraeli, Gladstone, Salisbury and Rosebery (and he only managed 18 months). Before that Derby, Palmerston, Russell, Aberdeen, Peel, Melbourne. I make that 10 in total. But of course all of them except Aberdeen and Rosebery had more than one go (Peel and Mebourne under William). Shows how hard it was to unseat party leaders (Derby was leader for 22 years despite never winning an overall majority).

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Pretty good outcome. Sorted within three weeks of referendum. Experienced leader, was remain in a low profile unenthusiastic way and previously Eurosceptic. Now confirmed will see Brexit through but will be EFTA/EEA not some Maoist WTO plan. Centrist enough to unite both sides of party.

Leadsom did the decent thing and put the Nation first. Kudos to her.

Meanwhile Labour seem to think they are in a Citizen Smith sequel....

Don't count your EFTA/EEAs before they hatch.

williamglenn said:

GIN1138 said:

MarkHopkins said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/752516843886215168

Cam does PMQ's and then heads off to see HMQ on Wednesday afternoon?

And then, like that, he's gone...

"Cancel the resignation! You could wipe the floor with these people!"

Yes he's big girl, but not that sort of girl.