politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leadsom quits the race. Big question now is whether May is

Managed to turn my mild loss into a nice little profit in the last 30 minutes of the contest !

#Portugal

Paristonda said:

Pulpstar said:

John_M said:

Pulpstar said:

John_M said:

Brom said:

May - PM
Hammond - Chancellor
Grayling - Home
Osborn - Foreign
Davis - Head of Brexit
Gove - Justice
Javid - Education
Leadsom - Business
Fox - Health
Johnson - Defence
Rudd - Culture

would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.

I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.

Boris Johnson in charge of defence ?!

Are you mad ?

Did you actually read what I wrote, or were you replying to Brom's post? I don't think Boris is really ministerial material. Can you imagine him doing his red boxes? Party Chairman at best. Or possibly Minister for Cheering People Up.

Defence is a serious job for a serious man.

Boris should get the Ministry of fun, much more suited to his talents.

Ministry of Fun, that sounds like something out of 1984!

Sounds more like Madness to me!

Welcome to the lion's den
Temptation's on his way
Welcome to the House....

Oxford uni win again.

@LouiseMensch is a spoof. I hope we all realise that now.

I was amazed I got taken in for so long. Genius twitter account, whoever is behind it.

Anyone else got a problem with bbc news 24 live on iplayer?

IanB2 said:

ToryJim said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?

Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?

It's grandstanding, if there was a motion to hold an election they wouldn't vote for it.

I think the LibDems would.

If there is an early GE anti-Corbyn Labour MPs might well escape being deselected. On that basis they'd have a very good reason to vote for one asap.

Scott_P said:

Just seen IDS "sore loser" speech on Sky

Can this day get any better?

The Germans have a word for it that I can never spell. Schaudenfraude or something :-)

SandyRentool said:

She also became a Labour £3 supporter last year. Covering all the bases!

Indeed so ....

But the yellow peril was just a step too far ....

She lead some up to the top of the hill then she lead them down again...

PlatoSaid said:

EXCLUSIVE: UKIP Executive Says Leadership Candidates Must Be 5-Year-Long Party Members https://t.co/t8SNu6IeMN https://t.co/Dqqq0oL7cw

Sorry, Plato, you'll have to take your hat out the ring... ;-)

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

Just seen IDS "sore loser" speech on Sky

Can this day get any better?

The Germans have a word for it that I can never spell. Schaudenfraude or something :-)

I see Labour are calling for a snap GE. I thought u were joking when u said Corbyn wants to destroy Labour but I see now u were serious.

Probably time for a quick roundup.

Leading eurosceptics since their referendum victory:

Leadsom – withdrawn
Boris – retreated
Gove – humiliated
Farage – resigned
Corbyn – mutinied
Fox – beaten

To twist an old saying, if that's what victory looks like, I sure as hell wouldn't wish defeat on them.

Sky News team in a cloud burst !! ...

Pulpstar said:

Managed to turn my mild loss into a nice little profit in the last 30 minutes of the contest !

#Portugal

I could have been bolder this morning, but still, dinner for two somewhere nice on Ms May!

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Polls/pm-future-pm-conservative-public-2015.jpg

Some polling on PM suitability from last year.

Jobabob said:

Probably time for a quick roundup.

Leading eurosceptics since their referendum victory:

Leadsom – withdrawn
Boris – retreated
Gove – humiliated
Farage – resigned
Corbyn – mutinied
Fox – beaten

To twist an old saying, if that's what victory looks like, I sure as hell wouldn't wish defeat on them.

But Farage has resigned victorious. Of all the UK politicians he alongside May are the biggest winners from Brexit.

I've been following politics for almost 50 years, and I've never seen anything like the last few weeks.

Once we get back to the slow pace of "politics as usual" I am going to be suffering from Cold Turkey.

@ayestotheright:

The @nick_clegg who is calling for an early general election must be so mad with his evil twin who introduced fixed term parliaments

SandyRentool said:

JackW said:

I note Plato has donated to UKIP whilst still a member of the Conservative Party. Are these two positions compatible within the Tory rules ....

Just aski.. stirring ..

She also became a Labour £3 supporter last year. Covering all the bases!

Thats a definite no-no - rules aren't clear on 'donations' but explicitly rule out membership of other parties....

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.

I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:

Q: Would you stay in the single market?

May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?page=with:block-578377d1e4b0eebd31587035#liveblog-navigation

11.27

Isn't this rather worrying news for those of us hoping for EFTA/EEA?

Yes, I've been saying for weeks that an EEA-style deal is unlikely.

JosiasJessop said:

PlatoSaid said:

taffys said:

''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''

LOL

I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.

Is that compatible with being a Conservative member?

Is joining the Labour party to vote in their election? It's not just rules but conscience.

Disraeli said:

I've been following politics for almost 50 years, and I've never seen anything like the last few weeks.

Once we get back to the slow pace of "politics as usual" I am going to be suffering from Cold Turkey.

If we hadn't seen such riches, we could live with being poor!

In honour of Mrs May, I'm spending my winnings on new footwear.

While May gets on with running the country, Corbyn is consumed by the task of suing his own party. Well, not yet...

I hope Corbyn survives as at present the Tories are Mayist and Labour is Maoist!

felix said:

PlatoSaid said:

Bob__Sykes said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.

As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?

I object very strongly to the notion of members not getting a vote. A pro-Remain PM given the job as a result of enormous media pressure exerted on her rival.

I like democracy and would accept the result whether it was May or not. I'm politically homeless right now.

Hilarious.. just so funny. Maybe they'll refund your membership fee.

It's what we do. Almost like 2003 all over again.

In fact the PCP overturned the will of the Tory members.

Angela Eagle sounded awful, just awful. "I am my own woman squawk squawk squawk"!

OTOH Mrs May isn't a great speaker either but at least I believe her.

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.

I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:

Q: Would you stay in the single market?

May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?page=with:block-578377d1e4b0eebd31587035#liveblog-navigation

11.27

Isn't this rather worrying news for those of us hoping for EFTA/EEA?

Yes, I've been saying for weeks that an EEA-style deal is unlikely.

And how do the single-market EEA majority in parliament react if something far inferior to that is offered? You might be able to trigger A50 alone, but Parliament is going to be heavily involved at plenty of points along the way.

The lack of Brexiteers in the fore has left the field free for every former Europhile to grab their version of Brexit. The UK politics of Brexit is going to be a stroppy, messy, cross-party shenanigan of epic proportions.

It is why Southam is calling GE (I'd say eventually), but the more confident prediction is that Disraeli is not going to be bored for a long, long, long time.

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.

I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:

Q: Would you stay in the single market?

May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?page=with:block-578377d1e4b0eebd31587035#liveblog-navigation

11.27

The mood music from Germany is somewhat negative. Merkel thinks the UK voted for Brexit because it doesn't like freedom of movement; she expects Article 50 to be triggered once the new PM is in place, but the UK will not get all the benefits of the EU in the new arrangement.

FWIW the Norwegian PM doubts EEA will be suitable for the UK.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@benrileysmith: Labour MP: "Willfully charging into a general election now is the equivalent of running full pelt off the edge of a cliff."

And May won't have a meaningful majority.

I can't see why she wouldn't call an election straight away.

>50% chance of another election this year, IMO.

matt said:

JosiasJessop said:

PlatoSaid said:

taffys said:

''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''

LOL

I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.

Is that compatible with being a Conservative member?

Is joining the Labour party to vote in their election? It's not just rules but conscience.

Quite. Interesting very many Tories on here think it's a pretty low down dirty act. They are, of course, exactly right. It is.

Jobabob said:

AndyJS said:

While May gets on with running the country, Corbyn is consumed by the task of suing his own party. Well, not yet...

I suspect even he wouldn't go through with it.

If the NEC says he needs nominations (odds against but possible) and he is kept off the ballot by the PLP (likely) and then attacked through the courts he would lose, having already been deposed as leader.

Once deposed as leader I suspect he'll go back to Islington to be a self-indulgent, narcissistic, rabble-rouser with no clue about the world as it is today. Oh hang on... he never left!

It would look very odd for an avowedly anti establishment figure like Corbyn to rely on the courts to preserve his position.

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?

I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full access to the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).

And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

EXCLUSIVE: UKIP Executive Says Leadership Candidates Must Be 5-Year-Long Party Members https://t.co/t8SNu6IeMN https://t.co/Dqqq0oL7cw

Sorry, Plato, you'll have to take your hat out the ring... ;-)

Glad to see some of your sangfroid has returned...

You and I have been in a similar place. Both worked hard to get a Tory party elected that had promised a Referendum. Both hoped that Dave would deliver on his promise to materially renegotiate our position within the EU. Both would probably have voted Remain if he had. But both of us got pissed off with the overselling of the resulting "deal", insulting our intelligence at its supposed wonderfulness - then got incensed by his Project Fear and "Little Englander" stuff. Both of us voted Leave.

Both hoped to have a serious Leaver on the Conservative members ballot. But then Gove started playing with hand grenades. He took it upon himself to decide who was a worthy candidate, usurping the role of the members. For whatever reason, Boris then stood aside. (The biographies covering this period are going to be fascinating...)

I don't think you would have voted for Boris, even if he had carried the Leave banner into the final two. But when he wasn't there, you invested your hope in Leadsom. That is where we parted company. Just never saw her as Prime Ministerial. With a few more years in Government, she might have grown into being a proper challenger. But one decent showing in the TV debate was nowhere near enough. A Prime Minister can't just open mouth before engaging brain. Failing to understand in the moment how her comments might be interpreted was a one strike and your out moment. Reluctantly, I would have voted for May - though the temptation to spoil my ballot would have been high.

So now we have May. She has a tricky high-wire act to perform. I hope she manages it. But I, at least, will still be on the inside of the party - watching, judging.... If she isn't up to snuff, then it will be down to folks like me to put the spine into our MPs to act. Can't do that from UKIP.

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?

I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full membership of the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).

The only caveat to that is that Merkel et al will be much more welcoming to May, as one who supported Remain. She has a reasonable chance of cutting some sort of deal, perhaps.

JosiasJessop said:

PlatoSaid said:

Bob__Sykes said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.

As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?

I object very strongly to the notion of members not getting a vote. A pro-Remain PM given the job as a result of enormous media pressure exerted on her rival.

I like democracy and would accept the result whether it was May or not. I'm politically homeless right now.

No Plato. It was not the result of 'enormous media pressure'. Leadsom shot herself in the foot, and then turned the gun and shot her campaign in the back. She was the architect, designer, builder, and labourer of her own misfortune.

If you want to blame anyone for your not getting a say, blame Leadsom.

After all, you were undecided and willing to listen, weren't you?

Can't disagree with that. I thought Leadsom was overhyped as a media performer during the referendum campaign and has shown a serious lack of experience in the leadership campaign. For me today's news is very welcome.

stjohn said:

And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?

Quite bad in the short-term because of the effect on the City, although a quick deal along those lines would be better than an EEA deal after an extended negotiation.

In the long-term, hard to say. The Brexiteers told us that we'd be free to take advantages of trade with other countries in a way in which we couldn't as members of the EU. That always seemed to me to be an argument which was generated mainly by wishful thinking, but perhaps it can be made to work.

stjohn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stjohn said:

Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?

I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full access to the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).

And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?

Serious because anything other than vanilla EEA is going to take a long time to negotiate. Maybe ten years. In the meantime we are either in minimal WTO or languishing in an EU exit limbo dependent on the goodwill of EU partners who don't owe us any.

Jobabob said:

matt said:

JosiasJessop said:

PlatoSaid said:

taffys said:

''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''

LOL

I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.

Is that compatible with being a Conservative member?

Is joining the Labour party to vote in their election? It's not just rules but conscience.

Quite. Interesting very many Tories on here think it's a pretty low down dirty act. They are, of course, exactly right. It is.

Has there been any other kind of politics since Tony Blair?

Odds of Article 50 being triggered this year, with Brexit in 2018 must now be more likely than at breakfast time.

It has just dawned on me - Article 50 - therefore at least 49 other articles. Light reading, not.

logical_song said:

Pulpstar said:

SimonStClare said:

PlatoSaid said:

EXCLUSIVE: UKIP Executive Says Leadership Candidates Must Be 5-Year-Long Party Members https://t.co/t8SNu6IeMN https://t.co/Dqqq0oL7cw

Narrows the field just a tad – are those still on parole eligible?

Steven Woolfe eligible under this criteria

13% of the vote and third place in Stockport apparently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockport_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

UKIP would have a majority of about a hundred if they held Stockport.

edmundintokyo said:

rottenborough said:

Anyone else got a problem with bbc news 24 live on iplayer?

It's been on the blink for a couple of weeks now, when you try to find the political news all you get is some ridiculously unbelievable political drama series.

LOL

Henry

AndyJS said:

Did those with bets on Leadsom manage to cash out in time?

Nope - was in a meeting while the announcement happened

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/11/george-osborne-us-britain-brexit-stock-markets-sterling-business-live?page=with:block-57838d30e4b0c697648595dc#block-57838d30e4b0c697648595dc

Buy on May and Leadsom go away.