Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leadsom quits the race. Big question now is whether May is

24567

Comments

  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Several Leadsom backers have spoken saying that May had the overwhelming support of MP's. Looks very much like behind the scenes people have put pressure on Leadsom to drop out.

    Perhaps fear of a Corbyn situation?
  • Options
    I suspect that May will be a reasonably good PM actually. I also suspect that all she needs to do to achieve a proper unity within the party is to deliver on Brexit on almost any terms. If she takes us out without breaking anything too badly she'll go down in history with a positive write-up. If she weasels out then the history books are going to be very unkind.

    Patrick's advice to our new PM:
    1. Get us out and don't ruin our economy or international friendships in the process.
    2. Trigger A50 soonish (within 6 months).
    3. Repeal the FTPA and go for a GE soon.
    4. TRADE BABY TRADE!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    Lennon said:

    OllyT said:

    Entirely predictable that there will be nobody around from Leave to be held accountable for their campaign and its consequences.

    This is the real downside with a referendum, Boris, Farage, Gove, now Leadsom have all washed their hands of implementing Brexit. It's a bloody disgrace that people who never wanted us to leave the EU are now left having to make the best of it as all the Leavers walk away. It really makes me angry but, as I said, entirely predictable from Leave.

    I suspect they will now go back to carping on the sidelines again and blame any problems on the poor sods landed with implementing it. Not on ounce of political guts or integrity between the lot of them..

    Somewhat scarily, the most senior Leaver left standing is Chris Grayling... (May's campaign manager - and clearly likely to get a promotion)
    David Davis is still there as well.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    Two main stories on The Times website: Leadsom pulls out, Corbyn threatens to sue his own MPs.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    DavidL said:

    Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

    My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

    I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

    I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,738
    MaxPB said:

    Lennon said:

    OllyT said:

    Entirely predictable that there will be nobody around from Leave to be held accountable for their campaign and its consequences.

    This is the real downside with a referendum, Boris, Farage, Gove, now Leadsom have all washed their hands of implementing Brexit. It's a bloody disgrace that people who never wanted us to leave the EU are now left having to make the best of it as all the Leavers walk away. It really makes me angry but, as I said, entirely predictable from Leave.

    I suspect they will now go back to carping on the sidelines again and blame any problems on the poor sods landed with implementing it. Not on ounce of political guts or integrity between the lot of them..

    Somewhat scarily, the most senior Leaver left standing is Chris Grayling... (May's campaign manager - and clearly likely to get a promotion)
    David Davis is still there as well.
    Fair point. Presumably it is too much to hope that he could be the new Home Secretary...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,091
    PClipp said:

    OllyT said:

    Entirely predictable that there will be nobody around from Leave to be held accountable for their campaign and its consequences.
    This is the real downside with a referendum, Boris, Farage, Gove, now Leadsom have all washed their hands of implementing Brexit. It's a bloody disgrace that people who never wanted us to leave the EU are now left having to make the best of it as all the Leavers walk away. It really makes me angry but, as I said, entirely predictable from Leave.
    I suspect they will now go back to carping on the sidelines again and blame any problems on the poor sods landed with implementing it. Not on ounce of political guts or integrity between the lot of them..

    You seem to be overlooking Cameron and Osborne, who set the whole nonsense up in the first place with no regard for the consequences, and are now calmly walking away from the disaster, just like the rest of the top Tories.
    They, at least, simply lacked the strength with their members to deny a vote and we're very clear in the end what a bad idea they thought it was.
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    O/TBetting for POTUS after this one,keep an eye on Zephyr Teachout who is standing for Congress in NY.She has the Bernie Sanders endorsement.When the new odds are announced,my money will be on Zephyr to be next POTUS in 4 years's time.She is one hell of a woman and human being.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    Patrick said:

    I suspect that May will be a reasonably good PM actually. I also suspect that all she needs to do to achieve a proper unity within the party is to deliver on Brexit on almost any terms. If she takes us out without breaking anything too badly she'll go down in history with a positive write-up. If she weasels out then the history books are going to be very unkind.

    Patrick's advice to our new PM:
    1. Get us out and don't ruin our economy or international friendships in the process.
    2. Trigger A50 soonish (within 6 months).
    3. Repeal the FTPA and go for a GE soon.
    4. TRADE BABY TRADE!

    None of those are easy, the first may be impossible.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Is there a book on whether DC or TM will do PMQs this week?

    Article 50. I assume that TM won't invoke it before the summer hols, and will give her team at least 6-8 weeks after the summer to get some talking done, so I'm guessing that 1st November would be the earliest date. It'd damp Ukip down if she were to announce the date now, but I suppose she's not the kind of person who'd do that.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856
    Sean_F said:

    taffys said:

    ''Indeed. Disaster awaits the Tories I think. ''

    The country wants change.

    The tories gave them fudger May.

    They will not be forgiven.

    It all depends whether May gives the country change.

    If we get Brexit that is indistinguishable from EU membership, and continued mass migration, then I think she will be seen as the Conservatives' Gordon Brown. If she plots a more radical path, then she may be another Thatcher.
    Her speech today - clearly aimed at the country, not members - was not exactly 'steady as she goes....'
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I wonder whether May will become PM on Wednesday afternoon following Cameron's final PMQ's.

    Discussions with Sir Christopher Geidt - Her Maj's Private Secretary required.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Our soon-to-be-PM has a massively difficult problem deciding on Cabinet posts and the Brexit negotiation team.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,711
    DavidL said:

    Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

    My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

    I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

    Dave and George backed her, that gives me hope.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Another person pleased with the news will be the individual charged with licking 130,000 stamps for the leadership ballot .... :smile:
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    Trying to find out what the Queen's schedule is:

    https://www.royal.uk/
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    taffys said:

    '' If she plots a more radical path, then she may be another Thatcher. ''

    Looking at her track record, I am not optimistic.

    Thatcher's track record prior to being PM wasn't a good indication of what was to come...
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Hammond has been backed to 5-2 fav with Lads in next chancellor betting.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Dadge said:

    Is there a book on whether DC or TM will do PMQs this week?

    Article 50. I assume that TM won't invoke it before the summer hols, and will give her team at least 6-8 weeks after the summer to get some talking done, so I'm guessing that 1st November would be the earliest date. It'd damp Ukip down if she were to announce the date now, but I suppose she's not the kind of person who'd do that.

    Surely you give DC the farewell. I mean, things have got to happen behind the scenes anyway. May would want to be fully briefed.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    Our soon-to-be-PM has a massively difficult problem deciding on Cabinet posts and the Brexit negotiation team.

    So long as the "near perfect" chancellor moves...
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Will Boris/Gove be given the Brexit Brief?
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    O/TBetting for POTUS after this one,keep an eye on Zephyr Teachout who is standing for Congress in NY.She has the Bernie Sanders endorsement.When the new odds are announced,my money will be on Zephyr to be next POTUS in 4 years's time.She is one hell of a woman and human being.

    You couldn't guess she was born in 1971, could you...
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrJacHart: The second female Prime Minister... delivered without an all women shortlist, and a pink bus.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    Hammond has been backed to 5-2 fav with Lads in next chancellor betting.

    Pleaaaaaaaaase !
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tlg86 said:

    Is Theresa May now the leader of the Conservative Party?

    No, the 1922 committee are still conducting formal discussions.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    FF43 said:

    You voted Leave. What did you think would happen to Cameron and Osborne and the more rational form of politics?

    "Rational form of politics"' ??? Cameron and Osborne dominated the Remain campaign, crowding out all other voices and shades of opinion, and relied 100% on a campaign of fear.

    I shall be very happy to see the back of the pair of them.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Our soon-to-be-PM has a massively difficult problem deciding on Cabinet posts and the Brexit negotiation team.

    So long as the "near perfect" chancellor moves...
    No doubt about that, I think.
  • Options
    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

    My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

    I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

    I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
    Suck it up. You voted Leave and threw all the cards up in the air. Can't really complain if they come down in a random order you dislike.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,711

    Will Boris/Gove be given the Brexit Brief?

    Keep Gove at Justice, someone like Fox or Davis for the Brexit Ministry
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,848
    Patrick said:

    I suspect that May will be a reasonably good PM actually. I also suspect that all she needs to do to achieve a proper unity within the party is to deliver on Brexit on almost any terms. If she takes us out without breaking anything too badly she'll go down in history with a positive write-up. If she weasels out then the history books are going to be very unkind.

    Patrick's advice to our new PM:
    1. Get us out and don't ruin our economy or international friendships in the process.
    2. Trigger A50 soonish (within 6 months).
    3. Repeal the FTPA and go for a GE soon.
    4. TRADE BABY TRADE!

    The problem with that, and the EU debate all along, is that it isn't a case of "We're off and will never deal with you again". It's a case of we don't want the current arrangement but aren't clear what the alternative would be, that is acceptable to all parties. In any case the transition will be complicated and probably slow.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited July 2016

    Will Boris/Gove be given the Brexit Brief?

    Both are certainly angling for it.

    BBC - "Gove: Theresa May has my 'full support'"
    BBC - "Boris Johnson: May will be 'excellent' PM"


  • Options

    Our soon-to-be-PM has a massively difficult problem deciding on Cabinet posts and the Brexit negotiation team.

    Where there is discord, may we bring harmony. Where there is error, may we bring truth. Where there is doubt, may we bring faith. And where there is despair, may we bring hope.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Lib Dems well up (On Facebook at least) for another GE.

  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Reopen nominations!!!

    Go Boris!!!

    I agree. Being elected unopposed made Brown even worse than he would otherwise have been.
    But May hasnt been electd unopposed.

    She was opposed by 4 Parliamentary colleagues and gained over 50 % of the vote in the first round.
    Comparisons with Brown I think are misplaced.

  • Options
    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Osborne's in the States isn't he?
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Will Boris/Gove be given the Brexit Brief?

    Keep Gove at Justice, someone like Fox or Davis for the Brexit Ministry
    Davis I hope he is somewhat likeable.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,549
    Leadsom's maths not her long suit?

    84 is not 'less than 25%' of 331 - it is 25.3%.

    If Bercow is excluded as of course he should be, the percentage rises a fraction.

    Are we seeing why she had to massage her CV a bit?
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,542
    edited July 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Trying to find out what the Queen's schedule is:

    https://www.royal.uk/

    Presumably she'll return to London tonight?

    Edit: ignore me, forgot PMQs isn't tomorrow. Doh
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    Our soon-to-be-PM has a massively difficult problem deciding on Cabinet posts and the Brexit negotiation team.

    Where there is discord, may we bring harmony. Where there is error, may we bring truth. Where there is doubt, may we bring faith. And where there is despair, may we bring hope.
    Were you the MP for Taunton ?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,091
    Monty said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

    My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

    I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

    I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
    Suck it up. You voted Leave and threw all the cards up in the air. Can't really complain if they come down in a random order you dislike.
    That At Least Is True. While I'd have preferred a contest to clear up some issues, I'm not a tory and frankly this is not the worst outcome for my strand of leaver.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    JackW said:

    Another person pleased with the news will be the individual charged with licking 130,000 stamps for the leadership ballot .... :smile:

    *JackW demonstrates he hasn't posted a letter in years - his butler could tell him they are self adhesive these days...*
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

    My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

    I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

    I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
    I feel for you. I believe your "yebbut have you got a vote in this election?" gambit of yesterday has also backfired on you a bit.

    Leadsom deserves magnanimity: nothing in her campaign became her like the leaving of it.

    And the "let's all laugh at IDS" ness of all this is surpassed only by the "let's all laugh at mensch" angle.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,091

    DavidL said:

    Reopen nominations!!!

    Go Boris!!!

    I agree. Being elected unopposed made Brown even worse than he would otherwise have been.
    But May hasnt been electd unopposed.

    She was opposed by 4 Parliamentary colleagues and gained over 50 % of the vote in the first round.
    Comparisons with Brown I think are misplaced.

    Or at least partial only.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    Essexit said:

    Theresa May, the Conservative party's Gordon Brown. Gets a reputation for being competent by staying in a top job for a long time despite mediocre performance, gets to be PM without a real fight.

    She fought as much of a fight as Heath, Thatcher, Major or Hague did - or Labour leaders such as Wilson, Callaghan and Foot.

    Indeed, had she run under previous rules, she'd have been elected after only one ballot, which most people would regard as a very strong mandate - and more than in the actual elections held under those rules.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    taffys said:

    ''Indeed. Disaster awaits the Tories I think. ''

    The country wants change.

    The tories gave them fudger May.

    They will not be forgiven.

    We'll see what she does but if Theresa thinks she can get away with not implementing Brexit the 17m who voted LEAVE will have no other choice than to take the UKIP route in 2020.
    Which Is why she would never risk that even if she wanted to. With no contest it may be even harder to get a sort of Brexit lite option, as her feet will be held to the fire and she has no proven member backer.
    If she takes us into an EEA deal with free movement she is going to be needing Boris' water cannons.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    What a farce !
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,220
    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

    My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

    I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

    I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
    'Silent rage' seems an odd response from someone who claimed to be undecided ;)

    Seriously, either graciously accept the result as Leadsom has done, or just leave the Tories and join UKIP. They seem a better fit to your views atm IMO.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,848
    PClipp said:

    FF43 said:

    You voted Leave. What did you think would happen to Cameron and Osborne and the more rational form of politics?

    "Rational form of politics"' ??? Cameron and Osborne dominated the Remain campaign, crowding out all other voices and shades of opinion, and relied 100% on a campaign of fear.

    I shall be very happy to see the back of the pair of them.
    Maybe so, but DavidL wants Cameron and Osborne, yet voted for an action that guaranteed their destruction along with the kind of politics they represent and which he approves of.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    surbiton said:

    What a farce !

    But no-one is paying attention to Labour today....
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    What a development. Thought over the weekend that she might quit, but didn't act on it.

    Politics is mad at the moment.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jameskirkup: Senior Tory backer of Leadsom: "This is a very good day for Ukip. I wouldn't be surprised if Farage changes his mind and stays on now."
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. 86, in that case, Peston's a cad and a bounder.

    Anyway, I'm off for a bit. Will be interesting to see how the dust has settled when I return.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667

    Pulpstar said:

    Our soon-to-be-PM has a massively difficult problem deciding on Cabinet posts and the Brexit negotiation team.

    So long as the "near perfect" chancellor moves...
    No doubt about that, I think.
    Interesting that Osborne is in New York doing the job normally reserved for the foreign secretary...
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Actually all the things that Leadsom has been talking about before the ref regarding FTSE pay etc was a big part of May's speech, maybe May can appoint her head of some taskforce.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    What a development. Thought over the weekend that she might quit, but didn't act on it.

    Politics is mad at the moment.

    This is a rare example of politics being sane at the moment, though.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,549
    edited July 2016
    Was there just a fraction of emphasis on the first word in this sentence from Brady:

    'our procedures are very clear?'

    Could hardly blame him under the circumstances!
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    PlatoSaid said:

    taffys said:

    ''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''

    LOL

    I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.
    ROFL LMFAO - as some of us predicted Plato is on the move again - beware UKIP she won't be with you for long :)
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    Interesting that Osborne is in New York doing the job normally reserved for the foreign secretary...

    He is in New York meeting bankers, not Washington meeting pols, but maybe...
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    It's great to see that the Establishment has taken such a massive whacking as a result of the Brexit vote. It took nearly two and a half weeks for it to get its bearings and reassert its authority. Blimey, what a revolution :-D
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    FF43 said:

    PClipp said:

    FF43 said:

    You voted Leave. What did you think would happen to Cameron and Osborne and the more rational form of politics?

    "Rational form of politics"' ??? Cameron and Osborne dominated the Remain campaign, crowding out all other voices and shades of opinion, and relied 100% on a campaign of fear.

    I shall be very happy to see the back of the pair of them.
    Maybe so, but DavidL wants Cameron and Osborne, yet voted for an action that guaranteed their destruction along with the kind of politics they represent and which he approves of.
    Because the future of this nation is far more important than whether Dave stays in as PM. I liked Dave as well, but leaving the EU is forever, Dave and George aren't.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems well up (On Facebook at least) for another GE.

    Greens likewise (per Twitter).

    Everybody wants a bite out of the Labour Party before it starts to smell.
  • Options

    Leadsom statement 12.15, 1922 Chair 12.30, May campaign chief 12.45, Tory MPs all pulling together and pledging support to Theresa - all feels rather well co-ordinated this.

    Good on the Tories if so.

    Tories do political manoeuvre properly, compared to the shower in Labour
    You missed one. Theresa's speech this morning which was a pitch to voters, not members.
    Which makes you wonder when she knew Leadsom was pulling out?

    Others said on the earlier thread it was a strange speech to make to a CONSERVATIVE electorate.

    Not so strange as for a speech for the start of a GE campaign.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    James Kirkup
    Senior Tory backer of Leadsom: "This is a very good day for Ukip. I wouldn't be surprised if Farage changes his mind and stays on now."
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The calls for a GE will become irresistable,especially with Labour analysing its navel and rear-end for the foreseeable future.

    Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 20m20 minutes ago Lambeth, London
    Tory coronation of Theresa May, unopposed = act of an entitled elite w zero credibility. General Election Now!
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Jonathan said:

    What a development. Thought over the weekend that she might quit, but didn't act on it.

    Politics is mad at the moment.

    This is a rare example of politics being sane at the moment, though.
    Exactly! Genuinely, you could see the political capital drain from Leadsom, it's like political gravity.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    taffys said:

    ''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''

    LOL

    I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.
    ROFL LMFAO - as some of us predicted Plato is on the move again - beware UKIP she won't be with you for long :)
    The only political equivalent I can think of is Winston McKenzie.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    PlatoSaid said:

    James Kirkup
    Senior Tory backer of Leadsom: "This is a very good day for Ukip. I wouldn't be surprised if Farage changes his mind and stays on now."

    It would be an error, Farage has taken UKIP a long way but its time for someone else to step into the breach.

    A Moss side boy made good springs to mind.
  • Options
    MontyMonty Posts: 346

    It's great to see that the Establishment has taken such a massive whacking as a result of the Brexit vote. It took nearly two and a half weeks for it to get its bearings and reassert its authority. Blimey, what a revolution :-D

    LOL :)
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2016

    *JackW demonstrates he hasn't posted a letter in years - his butler could tell him they are self adhesive these days...*

    Heavens above ... really?!?

    It's only been a few weeks since I moved from folding writing sheets and using my armorial seal ring and red wax ....

  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    nunu said:

    Actually all the things that Leadsom has been talking about before the ref regarding FTSE pay etc was a big part of May's speech, maybe May can appoint her head of some taskforce.

    Staples and Paperclips?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    Essexit said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    That's one reason, but there is another. As has been pointed out, if she goes to a GE having not triggered Article 50 UKIP could do very well indeed. I'd expect Farage to cancel his resignation again.
    If there is an autumn election, the Tories will fight it on an explicitly pro-Brexit platform now. That particular UKIP fox will be shot.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    The calls for a GE will become irresistable,especially with Labour analysing its navel and rear-end for the foreseeable future.

    Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 20m20 minutes ago Lambeth, London
    Tory coronation of Theresa May, unopposed = act of an entitled elite w zero credibility. General Election Now!

    From an unreconstructed Leftie like Mason that is hilarious.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    taffys said:

    '' If she plots a more radical path, then she may be another Thatcher. ''

    Looking at her track record, I am not optimistic.

    Thatcher comparisons wide of the mark. May could be our Merkel, and is probably aiming for that.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
    Farron has called for an early General Election. Be careful what you wish for. Yazz had a great song but it might not be sage advice ;)
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

    My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

    I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

    I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
    Yay - the gift that keeps on giving. One by one the headbangers who won the referendum have fallen away at the prospect of dealing with it and thus shown their true destructive colours. Never mind the big girls [ and boys] will now try to make it work for the 17m and the 16m.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    nunu said:

    Actually all the things that Leadsom has been talking about before the ref regarding FTSE pay etc was a big part of May's speech, maybe May can appoint her head of some taskforce.

    Staples and Paperclips?
    I did suggest the Department of Administrative Affairs a couple of days ago
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    DanSmith said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    It's a no brainer isn't it? I agree Scotland is an issue, but Scotland is going to be an issue anyway whatever happens. Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least.
    I suspect May is probably thinking more about what is in the interests of the nation at the moment, as anyone about to assume the highest office in the land should be, not about how to completely screw over the Labour Party...
    Well said

    DanSmith said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    It's a no brainer isn't it? I agree Scotland is an issue, but Scotland is going to be an issue anyway whatever happens. Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least.
    I suspect May is probably thinking more about what is in the interests of the nation at the moment, as anyone about to assume the highest office in the land should be, not about how to completely screw over the Labour Party...
    Well said

    Are the interests of the nation best served by having a government with a slim majority and no Brexit deal mandate? If the hard core Tory right wanted to cause trouble they are in a very strong position to do so. Does May want that? Does the country?

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    What a development. Thought over the weekend that she might quit, but didn't act on it.

    Politics is mad at the moment.

    This is a rare example of politics being sane at the moment, though.
    It's the most damaging way to get to the right answer, but it's better to get to the right answer than the wrong one.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Our soon-to-be-PM has a massively difficult problem deciding on Cabinet posts and the Brexit negotiation team.

    So long as the "near perfect" chancellor moves...
    No doubt about that, I think.
    Interesting that Osborne is in New York doing the job normally reserved for the foreign secretary...
    Naughty... but nice.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856
    Looks like Leadsom got out before more CV-fluffing was exposed:

    http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.id/2016/07/andrea-leadsom-more-cv-woe.html
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667

    Essexit said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    That's one reason, but there is another. As has been pointed out, if she goes to a GE having not triggered Article 50 UKIP could do very well indeed. I'd expect Farage to cancel his resignation again.
    If there is an autumn election, the Tories will fight it on an explicitly pro-Brexit platform now. That particular UKIP fox will be shot.
    Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    FF43 said:

    PClipp said:

    FF43 said:

    You voted Leave. What did you think would happen to Cameron and Osborne and the more rational form of politics?

    "Rational form of politics"' ??? Cameron and Osborne dominated the Remain campaign, crowding out all other voices and shades of opinion, and relied 100% on a campaign of fear.

    I shall be very happy to see the back of the pair of them.
    Maybe so, but DavidL wants Cameron and Osborne, yet voted for an action that guaranteed their destruction along with the kind of politics they represent and which he approves of.
    There's lots of unintended consequences happening recently.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,531
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    PClipp said:

    FF43 said:

    You voted Leave. What did you think would happen to Cameron and Osborne and the more rational form of politics?

    "Rational form of politics"' ??? Cameron and Osborne dominated the Remain campaign, crowding out all other voices and shades of opinion, and relied 100% on a campaign of fear.

    I shall be very happy to see the back of the pair of them.
    Maybe so, but DavidL wants Cameron and Osborne, yet voted for an action that guaranteed their destruction along with the kind of politics they represent and which he approves of.
    Because the future of this nation is far more important than whether Dave stays in as PM. I liked Dave as well, but leaving the EU is forever, Dave and George aren't.
    That is it exactly. I believe that Brexit will prove to be in our long term interests. But oh the price! We have yet to ascertain the price.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Dadge said:

    I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.

    what 30 LD seats? lol
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    MaxPB said:

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    taffys said:

    ''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''

    LOL

    I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.
    ROFL LMFAO - as some of us predicted Plato is on the move again - beware UKIP she won't be with you for long :)
    The only political equivalent I can think of is Winston McKenzie.
    Oooh harsh... but true.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    It's great to see that the Establishment has taken such a massive whacking as a result of the Brexit vote. It took nearly two and a half weeks for it to get its bearings and reassert its authority. Blimey, what a revolution :-D

    Yes, it was a nasty moment....but it passed!
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    The calls for a GE will become irresistable,especially with Labour analysing its navel and rear-end for the foreseeable future.

    Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 20m20 minutes ago Lambeth, London
    Tory coronation of Theresa May, unopposed = act of an entitled elite w zero credibility. General Election Now!

    I'm not a fan of snap GE (even though Labour taking a hammering is what I usually like to see). Far too much going on right now. Getting the right balance of the cabinet is not going to be easy then setting up the negotiating team and deciding what we want from the exit. Once article 50 is triggered we then have 2 years of complex negotiations and having to go through all the legal changes.

    We are in for a rough few years ahead.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    eek said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    The SNP have 56 of the 59 seats, there are none left for them to win so any mandate really wouldn't carry any more weight than it did before...

    The SNP did not campaign specifically on an independence referendum last time.

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,222
    ToryJim said:

    Farron has called for an early General Election. Be careful what you wish for. Yazz had a great song but it might not be sage advice ;)

    :)

    Mind you it would be on the current boundaries.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,220

    DavidL said:

    Reopen nominations!!!

    Go Boris!!!

    I agree. Being elected unopposed made Brown even worse than he would otherwise have been.
    But May hasnt been electd unopposed.

    She was opposed by 4 Parliamentary colleagues and gained over 50 % of the vote in the first round.
    Comparisons with Brown I think are misplaced.
    In addition, Brown and his entourage of sh*ts spent ten years undermining the leader of their party and destroying alternate candidates in order to get the job. In the process he created the mess Labour now find themselves in, with all credible alternatives off the scene or damaged.

    May hasn't. She's been a team player throughout.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    JackW said:

    *JackW demonstrates he hasn't posted a letter in years - his butler could tell him they are self adhesive these days...*

    Heavens above ... really?!?

    It's only been a few weeks since I moved from folding writing sheets and using my armorial seal ring and red wax ....

    I wonder what orifice that armorial seal resembles?
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    taffys said:

    ''Indeed. Disaster awaits the Tories I think. ''

    The country wants change.

    The tories gave them fudger May.

    They will not be forgiven.

    We'll see what she does but if Theresa thinks she can get away with not implementing Brexit the 17m who voted LEAVE will have no other choice than to take the UKIP route in 2020.
    Which Is why she would never risk that even if she wanted to. With no contest it may be even harder to get a sort of Brexit lite option, as her feet will be held to the fire and she has no proven member backer.
    She won't backtrack on Brexit. No reason to from her point of view - her voters and members favoured Leave, the country favoured Leave, most remainers accept the result anyway, the EU will want us out ASAP not changing our minds every couple months, and she herself was not exactly a europhile so she probably doesn't mind brexiting! However, I think a Brexit-lite becomes more likely now, as she won't have to make all sorts of red meat Brexit promises to beat Leadsom, there is no-one important left to hold her feet to the fire.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    Essexit said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    That's one reason, but there is another. As has been pointed out, if she goes to a GE having not triggered Article 50 UKIP could do very well indeed. I'd expect Farage to cancel his resignation again.
    If there is an autumn election, the Tories will fight it on an explicitly pro-Brexit platform now. That particular UKIP fox will be shot.
    UKIP - Full English Brexit

    Tories - Theresa's Brexit fudgecake.

    Lib Dems - Remain

    Labour - Err err errrrrrr erm err emmmm ah a Ha HA HAHAHAHAHHAHAHA Bwahahaha LOL
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856
    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

    My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

    I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

    I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
    Yay - the gift that keeps on giving. One by one the headbangers who won the referendum have fallen away at the prospect of dealing with it and thus shown their true destructive colours. Never mind the big girls [ and boys] will now try to make it work for the 17m and the 16m.
    Gove, Boris, Farage, Leadsom......what is it with LEAVErs and taking responsibility?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited July 2016


    Well the deal is done - now can we get back to laughing at Labour ?
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited July 2016

    Our soon-to-be-PM has a massively difficult problem deciding on Cabinet posts and the Brexit negotiation team.

    Yes.
    1. How big a break with Cameron, Osborne, Hancock, Hands and Perry?
    2. Is she going to kick out or keep the poisonous Soubry and Boles?
    3. Is she going to move on the duffers such as Letwin, Mcloughlin and Morgan?
    4. Will she bring in Brady, Davis and Fox?
    5. Will we get a cabinet of a manageable smaller size?
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    Looks like Leadsom got out before more CV-fluffing was exposed:

    http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.id/2016/07/andrea-leadsom-more-cv-woe.html

    "I was responsible for writing a quantitative bonus scheme that measured the performance of fund managers over three, five and 10 years according to the performance of the team, the business and the individual, which involved clawbacks, as appropriate. I started that work in 1999 and finished it in 2009, so I can say with confidence that I did my bit on remuneration"
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    FF43 said:

    PClipp said:

    FF43 said:

    You voted Leave. What did you think would happen to Cameron and Osborne and the more rational form of politics?

    "Rational form of politics"' ??? Cameron and Osborne dominated the Remain campaign, crowding out all other voices and shades of opinion, and relied 100% on a campaign of fear.

    I shall be very happy to see the back of the pair of them.
    Maybe so, but DavidL wants Cameron and Osborne, yet voted for an action that guaranteed their destruction along with the kind of politics they represent and which he approves of.
    I think DavidL wanted something that Cameron and Osborne appeared to be - and perhaps they even were for a time, while we had the benefits of Coalition Government - but since the general election, they came out in their true colours. And in this referendum campaign, even more so. They are just a couple of unscrupulous bullies, who have no heed for the consequences of their actions.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.

    I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:

    Q: Would you stay in the single market?

    May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?page=with:block-578377d1e4b0eebd31587035#liveblog-navigation

    11.27
This discussion has been closed.