Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?
Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?
It's grandstanding, if there was a motion to hold an election they wouldn't vote for it.
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.
Boris Johnson in charge of defence ?!
Are you mad ?
Did you actually read what I wrote, or were you replying to Brom's post? I don't think Boris is really ministerial material. Can you imagine him doing his red boxes? Party Chairman at best. Or possibly Minister for Cheering People Up.
Defence is a serious job for a serious man.
Boris should get the Ministry of fun, much more suited to his talents.
Ministry of Fun, that sounds like something out of 1984!
Sounds more like Madness to me!
Welcome to the lion's den Temptation's on his way Welcome to the House....
Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?
Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?
It's grandstanding, if there was a motion to hold an election they wouldn't vote for it.
I think the LibDems would.
Yes; an election on 650 seats not 600, plus no Vince in Twickenham, and a good chance in a couple of Scottish seats if the Scottish parliament is anything to go by. I reckon they'd end up on 12% with 14 seats. Which would be quite a result for Mr Farron.
Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?
Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?
It's grandstanding, if there was a motion to hold an election they wouldn't vote for it.
I think the LibDems would.
If there is an early GE anti-Corbyn Labour MPs might well escape being deselected. On that basis they'd have a very good reason to vote for one asap.
@JoeMurphyLondon: A minister tells me the Queen returns to London tomorrow. So it sounds like Mrs May will go to the Palace and become Prime Minister by tea.
Presumably the Queen will come down the East coast, taking in Warrington and then crossing over to Leicester to pass through the A 50.
A novel means of invoking A50, but I expect Juncker would accept it.
Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
Apart from fervent hope what are people basing "Staying in the EEA and failing to en Freedom of Movement will be more devastating to Labour-UKIP seats than Con-UKIP seats"?
BBC - "Gove: Theresa May has my 'full support'" BBC - "Boris Johnson: May will be 'excellent' PM"
I don't like Gove at all, but he's got to be the choice there (if it comes down to those 2). Boris has no respect in Brussels, he's known for all the bendy-banana stories, he doesn't come across serious. Gove is a longterm eurosceptic so will be brimming with ideas - ignore all his Vote Leave campaign BS about hating experts and billions of turks coming over.
Boris was born to be Culture Secretary - I genuinely think he would be a good fit there.
If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.
David Davis seems a good choice or Grayling.
For governor of South Georgia? Maybe but you'd worry for the welfare of the Penguins.
No even for Davis they're a kind of black and white issue
Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''
LOL
I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.
Is that compatible with being a Conservative member?
Is joining the Labour party to vote in their election? It's not just rules but conscience.
Anyone else got a problem with bbc news 24 live on iplayer?
It's been on the blink for a couple of weeks now, when you try to find the political news all you get is some ridiculously unbelievable political drama series.
Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
Isn't this rather worrying news for those of us hoping for EFTA/EEA?
Yes, I've been saying for weeks that an EEA-style deal is unlikely.
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?
I object very strongly to the notion of members not getting a vote. A pro-Remain PM given the job as a result of enormous media pressure exerted on her rival.
I like democracy and would accept the result whether it was May or not. I'm politically homeless right now.
Hilarious.. just so funny. Maybe they'll refund your membership fee.
Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?
I object very strongly to the notion of members not getting a vote. A pro-Remain PM given the job as a result of enormous media pressure exerted on her rival.
I like democracy and would accept the result whether it was May or not. I'm politically homeless right now.
Hilarious.. just so funny. Maybe they'll refund your membership fee.
It's what we do. Almost like 2003 all over again.
In fact the PCP overturned the will of the Tory members.
While May gets on with running the country, Corbyn is consumed by the task of suing his own party. Well, not yet...
I suspect even he wouldn't go through with it.
If the NEC says he needs nominations (odds against but possible) and he is kept off the ballot by the PLP (likely) and then attacked through the courts he would lose, having already been deposed as leader.
Once deposed as leader I suspect he'll go back to Islington to be a self-indulgent, narcissistic, rabble-rouser with no clue about the world as it is today. Oh hang on... he never left!
Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
Isn't this rather worrying news for those of us hoping for EFTA/EEA?
Yes, I've been saying for weeks that an EEA-style deal is unlikely.
And how do the single-market EEA majority in parliament react if something far inferior to that is offered? You might be able to trigger A50 alone, but Parliament is going to be heavily involved at plenty of points along the way.
The lack of Brexiteers in the fore has left the field free for every former Europhile to grab their version of Brexit. The UK politics of Brexit is going to be a stroppy, messy, cross-party shenanigan of epic proportions.
It is why Southam is calling GE (I'd say eventually), but the more confident prediction is that Disraeli is not going to be bored for a long, long, long time.
Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
The mood music from Germany is somewhat negative. Merkel thinks the UK voted for Brexit because it doesn't like freedom of movement; she expects Article 50 to be triggered once the new PM is in place, but the UK will not get all the benefits of the EU in the new arrangement.
FWIW the Norwegian PM doubts EEA will be suitable for the UK.
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full membership of the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''
LOL
I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.
Is that compatible with being a Conservative member?
Is joining the Labour party to vote in their election? It's not just rules but conscience.
Quite. Interesting very many Tories on here think it's a pretty low down dirty act. They are, of course, exactly right. It is.
I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.
If and when PM May agrees an EEA deal it is also equally possible UKIP could get up to 25% much of it at the Tories expense so both the Tories and Labour could be under 30%, though the Tories still probably ahead
Why would the EEA deal be mostly at the Tories expense when it was in no small parts Labour WWC Leavers that are most bothered by migration. EEA will appeal to a lot of Tory leavers, it won't appeal to many Labour leavers.
Because it would be the Tories pushing it through and far more Tories voted Leave than Labour voters. Labour will be affected too of course but Tory seats in Kent and Essex and Lincolnshire etc would all be prime UKIP targets after an EEA deal
I doubt if they'd actually go UKIP in a GE - they had a real chance last time and none of it happened. In a GE people are voting for MPs - big difference.
While May gets on with running the country, Corbyn is consumed by the task of suing his own party. Well, not yet...
I suspect even he wouldn't go through with it.
If the NEC says he needs nominations (odds against but possible) and he is kept off the ballot by the PLP (likely) and then attacked through the courts he would lose, having already been deposed as leader.
Once deposed as leader I suspect he'll go back to Islington to be a self-indulgent, narcissistic, rabble-rouser with no clue about the world as it is today. Oh hang on... he never left!
It would look very odd for an avowedly anti establishment figure like Corbyn to rely on the courts to preserve his position.
While May gets on with running the country, Corbyn is consumed by the task of suing his own party. Well, not yet...
I suspect even he wouldn't go through with it.
If the NEC says he needs nominations (odds against but possible) and he is kept off the ballot by the PLP (likely) and then attacked through the courts he would lose, having already been deposed as leader.
Once deposed as leader I suspect he'll go back to Islington to be a self-indulgent, narcissistic, rabble-rouser with no clue about the world as it is today. Oh hang on... he never left!
It would look very odd for an avowedly anti establishment figure like Corbyn to rely on the courts to preserve his position.
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full access to the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?
Sorry, Plato, you'll have to take your hat out the ring... ;-)
Glad to see some of your sangfroid has returned...
You and I have been in a similar place. Both worked hard to get a Tory party elected that had promised a Referendum. Both hoped that Dave would deliver on his promise to materially renegotiate our position within the EU. Both would probably have voted Remain if he had. But both of us got pissed off with the overselling of the resulting "deal", insulting our intelligence at its supposed wonderfulness - then got incensed by his Project Fear and "Little Englander" stuff. Both of us voted Leave.
Both hoped to have a serious Leaver on the Conservative members ballot. But then Gove started playing with hand grenades. He took it upon himself to decide who was a worthy candidate, usurping the role of the members. For whatever reason, Boris then stood aside. (The biographies covering this period are going to be fascinating...)
I don't think you would have voted for Boris, even if he had carried the Leave banner into the final two. But when he wasn't there, you invested your hope in Leadsom. That is where we parted company. Just never saw her as Prime Ministerial. With a few more years in Government, she might have grown into being a proper challenger. But one decent showing in the TV debate was nowhere near enough. A Prime Minister can't just open mouth before engaging brain. Failing to understand in the moment how her comments might be interpreted was a one strike and your out moment. Reluctantly, I would have voted for May - though the temptation to spoil my ballot would have been high.
So now we have May. She has a tricky high-wire act to perform. I hope she manages it. But I, at least, will still be on the inside of the party - watching, judging.... If she isn't up to snuff, then it will be down to folks like me to put the spine into our MPs to act. Can't do that from UKIP.
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full membership of the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
The only caveat to that is that Merkel et al will be much more welcoming to May, as one who supported Remain. She has a reasonable chance of cutting some sort of deal, perhaps.
Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?
I object very strongly to the notion of members not getting a vote. A pro-Remain PM given the job as a result of enormous media pressure exerted on her rival.
I like democracy and would accept the result whether it was May or not. I'm politically homeless right now.
No Plato. It was not the result of 'enormous media pressure'. Leadsom shot herself in the foot, and then turned the gun and shot her campaign in the back. She was the architect, designer, builder, and labourer of her own misfortune.
If you want to blame anyone for your not getting a say, blame Leadsom.
After all, you were undecided and willing to listen, weren't you?
Can't disagree with that. I thought Leadsom was overhyped as a media performer during the referendum campaign and has shown a serious lack of experience in the leadership campaign. For me today's news is very welcome.
And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?
Quite bad in the short-term because of the effect on the City, although a quick deal along those lines would be better than an EEA deal after an extended negotiation.
In the long-term, hard to say. The Brexiteers told us that we'd be free to take advantages of trade with other countries in a way in which we couldn't as members of the EU. That always seemed to me to be an argument which was generated mainly by wishful thinking, but perhaps it can be made to work.
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full access to the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?
Serious because anything other than vanilla EEA is going to take a long time to negotiate. Maybe ten years. In the meantime we are either in minimal WTO or languishing in an EU exit limbo dependent on the goodwill of EU partners who don't owe us any.
Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
The mood music from Germany is somewhat negative. Merkel thinks the UK voted for Brexit because it doesn't like freedom of movement; she expects Article 50 to be triggered once the new PM is in place, but the UK will not get all the benefits of the EU in the new arrangement.
FWIW the Norwegian PM doubts EEA will be suitable for the UK.
I think they're right. I fear the likes of CR, Max, RCS etc are going to be very disappointed.
''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''
LOL
I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.
Is that compatible with being a Conservative member?
Is joining the Labour party to vote in their election? It's not just rules but conscience.
Quite. Interesting very many Tories on here think it's a pretty low down dirty act. They are, of course, exactly right. It is.
Has there been any other kind of politics since Tony Blair?
Sky saying Her Majesty is due in London on Thursday. Probably going to happen then.
Thursday would appear fitting. No unseemly rush. Cameron does a valedictory PMQ's, May has a few days to decide on a cabinet and the test match at Lords begins.
Political history and leather on willow in one day. Splendid ..
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full membership of the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
Richard, I think our respective position on this topic is probably very close, if not the same. Given the Brexit vote, I would like a solution which is as close as we can be to what we have now except being members of the EU.
The referendum only gave one verdict: This country should leave the EU.
No other question was asked. By implication, Parliament was given the authority to sort out the details.
If we had [almost] unfettered access to the Single Market and the best FoM policy we could get, about 60/70% of the country would go with it. Remember 48% voted for the status quo.
The Brexit vote will still be honoured. We cannot go on about what each voter who voted Leave were thinking about. Virtually, every one had a different idea.
Sky saying Her Majesty is due in London on Thursday. Probably going to happen then.
Thursday would appear fitting. No unseemly rush. Cameron does a valedictory PMQ's, May has a few days to decide on a cabinet and the test match at Lords begins.
Political history and leather on willow in one day. Splendid ..
Anyone else got a problem with bbc news 24 live on iplayer?
It's been on the blink for a couple of weeks now, when you try to find the political news all you get is some ridiculously unbelievable political drama series.
''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''
LOL
I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.
Is that compatible with being a Conservative member?
Is joining the Labour party to vote in their election? It's not just rules but conscience.
I didn't condone that. It was stupid.
On that matter, wasn't there evidence afterwards that more Greens did it than Conservatives?
Comments
Chortle ....
#Portugal
Had some on Hammond
Welcome to the lion's den
Temptation's on his way
Welcome to the House....
Unlike the Brexiteers...
I was amazed I got taken in for so long. Genius twitter account, whoever is behind it.
I won very big (for me) on Brexit, but gave back 5% of the winnings backing Boris as next Con leader.
Hey ho, well done on the May bet
But the yellow peril was just a step too far ....
Leading eurosceptics since their referendum victory:
Leadsom – withdrawn
Boris – retreated
Gove – humiliated
Farage – resigned
Corbyn – mutinied
Fox – beaten
To twist an old saying, if that's what victory looks like, I sure as hell wouldn't wish defeat on them.
Some polling on PM suitability from last year.
Once we get back to the slow pace of "politics as usual" I am going to be suffering from Cold Turkey.
The @nick_clegg who is calling for an early general election must be so mad with his evil twin who introduced fixed term parliaments
Honest Guv ....
If we hadn't seen such riches, we could live with being poor!
In fact the PCP overturned the will of the Tory members.
Too late ....
Edit ... I have this nagging feeling Mrs JackW has an app notifying her of PB shoe posts !! ..
OTOH Mrs May isn't a great speaker either but at least I believe her.
If the NEC says he needs nominations (odds against but possible) and he is kept off the ballot by the PLP (likely) and then attacked through the courts he would lose, having already been deposed as leader.
Once deposed as leader I suspect he'll go back to Islington to be a self-indulgent, narcissistic, rabble-rouser with no clue about the world as it is today. Oh hang on... he never left!
The lack of Brexiteers in the fore has left the field free for every former Europhile to grab their version of Brexit. The UK politics of Brexit is going to be a stroppy, messy, cross-party shenanigan of epic proportions.
It is why Southam is calling GE (I'd say eventually), but the more confident prediction is that Disraeli is not going to be bored for a long, long, long time.
FWIW the Norwegian PM doubts EEA will be suitable for the UK.
I can't see why she wouldn't call an election straight away.
>50% chance of another election this year, IMO.
You and I have been in a similar place. Both worked hard to get a Tory party elected that had promised a Referendum. Both hoped that Dave would deliver on his promise to materially renegotiate our position within the EU. Both would probably have voted Remain if he had. But both of us got pissed off with the overselling of the resulting "deal", insulting our intelligence at its supposed wonderfulness - then got incensed by his Project Fear and "Little Englander" stuff. Both of us voted Leave.
Both hoped to have a serious Leaver on the Conservative members ballot. But then Gove started playing with hand grenades. He took it upon himself to decide who was a worthy candidate, usurping the role of the members. For whatever reason, Boris then stood aside. (The biographies covering this period are going to be fascinating...)
I don't think you would have voted for Boris, even if he had carried the Leave banner into the final two. But when he wasn't there, you invested your hope in Leadsom. That is where we parted company. Just never saw her as Prime Ministerial. With a few more years in Government, she might have grown into being a proper challenger. But one decent showing in the TV debate was nowhere near enough. A Prime Minister can't just open mouth before engaging brain. Failing to understand in the moment how her comments might be interpreted was a one strike and your out moment. Reluctantly, I would have voted for May - though the temptation to spoil my ballot would have been high.
So now we have May. She has a tricky high-wire act to perform. I hope she manages it. But I, at least, will still be on the inside of the party - watching, judging.... If she isn't up to snuff, then it will be down to folks like me to put the spine into our MPs to act. Can't do that from UKIP.
I think she will call a GE before the details are sorted out regarding BREXIT. The next time the country will be asked will be 5 years later.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockport_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
In the long-term, hard to say. The Brexiteers told us that we'd be free to take advantages of trade with other countries in a way in which we couldn't as members of the EU. That always seemed to me to be an argument which was generated mainly by wishful thinking, but perhaps it can be made to work.
Political history and leather on willow in one day. Splendid ..
It has just dawned on me - Article 50 - therefore at least 49 other articles. Light reading, not.
The referendum only gave one verdict: This country should leave the EU.
No other question was asked. By implication, Parliament was given the authority to sort out the details.
If we had [almost] unfettered access to the Single Market and the best FoM policy we could get, about 60/70% of the country would go with it. Remember 48% voted for the status quo.
The Brexit vote will still be honoured. We cannot go on about what each voter who voted Leave were thinking about. Virtually, every one had a different idea.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/jeremy-corbyn-threatens-legal-challenge-if-he-kept-ballot-will-he-be
Today as good a day as any to launch tweaked online polling methods. New t/o weighting & political interest weight intro.
Pre-Leadsom VI (8-10th): @Conservatives 38%, @UKLabour 30%, @LibDems 8%, @UKIP 15%, @theSNP 5%, Green 4%, @Plaid_Cymru 1%, Other *%.
Henry
The risk of Brexit turning sour by next year is too great not to go for it in the autumn IMHO
On that matter, wasn't there evidence afterwards that more Greens did it than Conservatives?
Buy on May and Leadsom go away.