CoTE surely. There just aren't that many Brexit permutations. We've a choice of a couple of umbrella treaties (EFTA/EEA), a completely bespoke agreement, or trading under WTO rules (with a couple of variants, e.g. unilateral zero import tariffs).
We don't have infinite room for maneuver. The only substantive question is financial passporting, yes or no?
I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.
No evidence whatsoever for the 15% point. Labour shouldn't touch the Greens with a ten foot pole.
I agree. I've had similar suggestions from the same sort of person on the right, advocating Con-UKIP deals. Both big parties would be nuts to go down that road.
It all sounds very clever when sat in committee rooms but the public tend to resent being told what to do in that way and can be disinclined to play ball.
Tactical voting worked in 1997, but it wasn't explicitly endorsed by the parties. I think you're right that being seen to tell voters what do can backfire, but getting some sort of informal arrangements in certain seats could help massively.
@JoeMurphyLondon: A minister tells me the Queen returns to London tomorrow. So it sounds like Mrs May will go to the Palace and become Prime Minister by tea.
Presumably the Queen will come down the East coast, taking in Warrington and then crossing over to Leicester to pass through the A 50.
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I remember reading about the politics of the 70's back in my A-level days - feels a bit similar to the fracturing of the postwar consensus.
Usually the winners - those who will forge the new post-brexit political consensus - are the ones who are the best organised when the tectonic plates shift.
accompanied by The Duke of Edinburgh, will visit East Anglian Air Ambulance at Cambridge Airport to officially open the Egerton-Smith Centre, Newmarket Road, Cambridge.
14 July 2016 Her Majesty The Queen, The Duke of Edinburgh
Buckingham Palace will give a Reception for winners of The Queen's Award for Enterprise, at Buckingham Palace.
Actually all the things that Leadsom has been talking about before the ref regarding FTSE pay etc was a big part of May's speech, maybe May can appoint her head of some taskforce.
Head of corporate governance and director for financial institutions pay perhaps?
Just looking at a photo of Theresa May standing in front of a banner "A country that works for everyone, not just a privileged few" - a damning statement that the Government of which she has been at the very highest level for the past six years has failed
I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.
If and when PM May agrees an EEA deal it is also equally possible UKIP could get up to 25% much of it at the Tories expense so both the Tories and Labour could be under 30%, though the Tories still probably ahead
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
All three out would look too much like a shift to the right.
BBC - "Gove: Theresa May has my 'full support'" BBC - "Boris Johnson: May will be 'excellent' PM"
I don't like Gove at all, but he's got to be the choice there (if it comes down to those 2). Boris has no respect in Brussels, he's known for all the bendy-banana stories, he doesn't come across serious. Gove is a longterm eurosceptic so will be brimming with ideas - ignore all his Vote Leave campaign BS about hating experts and billions of turks coming over.
Boris was born to be Culture Secretary - I genuinely think he would be a good fit there.
If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.
David Davis seems a good choice or Grayling.
For governor of South Georgia? Maybe but you'd worry for the welfare of the Penguins.
The Spanish Second Republic sent Franco to the Canary Islands to keep him out the way... how well did that work for them?!
But he was competent. Terrible but competent. The comparison falls down there.
I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.
If and when PM May agrees an EEA deal it is also equally possible UKIP could get up to 25% much of it at the Tories expense so both the Tories and Labour could be under 30%, though the Tories still probably ahead
Why would the EEA deal be mostly at the Tories expense when it was in no small parts Labour WWC Leavers that are most bothered by migration. EEA will appeal to a lot of Tory leavers, it won't appeal to many Labour leavers.
The Eagle campaign graphics are ludicrous. 2 weeks of planning and that was the best they could come up with. A pink background with a strange version of the Union Flag and then her signature in white over the top. Does not project powerful leader...
Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
Demand three contradictory things, send a delegation of leavers to negotiate it, referendum on the result, after that goes down she has some options.
We just need a fudge, nothing more. We have ridiculous pull factors for eastern european migrants some of which are in our own hands. Add qualifying periods for access to welfare for everyone, EU have no problem with that.
Chris Grayling is the man of the moment. Either he becomes Chancellor, or in my view marginally more likely, he takes on the Brexit role. Are there odds on that?
Grayling to Home Secretary with Hammond and Osborne swapping roles would be my option for stability.
All this the Queen is not in London, if she is at Windsor then both Cam and May can go to her!
I believe that she is at Balmoral...
No she doesn't go to Balmoral until the end of July. She may still be at Holyroodhouse
It would be entertaining to see Cam and May having to go to the 'other' palace (May in tartan suit no doubt), attended by mystified crowds of foreign tourists laden with all their juicy exchange rate shopping.
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.
If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.
Agreed. Gove is too abrasive, and Boris is Boris. Actually, temperamentally Andrea Leadsom would be a better bet, although her complete lack of experience is a problem.
In her shoes, I'd put Boris in a role as the figurehead in a new department dedicated to securing trade deals. Something where he's out of the country a lot, and where his penchant for getting himself publicity would actually be beneficial.
I can see Johnson as Foreign Sec and on the Brexit Committee along with May, the Home Sec and the person doing the actual work on Brexit. Gove maybe Home Sec. He needs to be in a department where he won't cause too much damage. Johnson is lazy and is less of a risk. Whether May wants to give Leavers two of the top cabinet posts depends on how much she thinks she needs to keep them and their faction on board, compared with rewarding her followers.
Gove as Home Secretary could set about doing those things that he would say were his new boss's failings in her six years in the job. His first negotiation will be asking her for an extra billion quid for an effective Border Patrol....
Hmm. Maybe not Home Sec. Gove is a godawful administrator. Is there a high profile department where he can do all the things that make the Tory grassroots warm and fuzzy, without irreparably blowing up what that Department exists to do?
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
May will be far, far more balanced than that list. Prediction that Anna will remain a Minister, Wollaston likely to stay as Health Committee chairman. Patel will probably join the Cabinet.
All this the Queen is not in London, if she is at Windsor then both Cam and May can go to her!
I believe that she is at Balmoral...
No she doesn't go to Balmoral until the end of July. She may still be at Holyroodhouse
Next official engagement is on Wednesday in Cambridge and is in the office on Thursday:
13 July 2016 Her Majesty The Queen accompanied by The Duke of Edinburgh, will visit East Anglian Air Ambulance at Cambridge Airport to officially open the Egerton-Smith Centre, Newmarket Road, Cambridge.
14 July 2016 Her Majesty The Queen, The Duke of Edinburgh will give a Reception for winners of The Queen's Award for Enterprise, at Buckingham Palace.
If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.
Agreed. Gove is too abrasive, and Boris is Boris. Actually, temperamentally Andrea Leadsom would be a better bet, although her complete lack of experience is a problem.
In her shoes, I'd put Boris in a role as the figurehead in a new department dedicated to securing trade deals. Something where he's out of the country a lot, and where his penchant for getting himself publicity would actually be beneficial.
I can see Johnson as Foreign Sec and on the Brexit Committee along with May, the Home Sec and the person doing the actual work on Brexit. Gove maybe Home Sec. He needs to be in a department where he won't cause too much damage. Johnson is lazy and is less of a risk. Whether May wants to give Leavers two of the top cabinet posts depends on how much she thinks she needs to keep them and their faction on board, compared with rewarding her followers.
Gove as Home Secretary could set about doing those things that he would say were his new boss's failings in her six years in the job. His first negotiation will be asking her for an extra billion quid for an effective Border Patrol....
Hmm. Maybe not Home Sec. Gove is a godawful administrator. Is there a high profile department where he can do all the things that make the Tory grassroots warm and fuzzy, without irreparably blowing up what that Department exists to do?
Easy. He stays at Justice where he's doing some good work.
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
All three out would look too much like a shift to the right.
Johnson at defence? Oh god no. Should swap with Rudd.
If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.
Agreed. Gove is too abrasive, and Boris is Boris. Actually, temperamentally Andrea Leadsom would be a better bet, although her complete lack of experience is a problem.
In her shoes, I'd put Boris in a role as the figurehead in a new department dedicated to securing trade deals. Something where he's out of the country a lot, and where his penchant for getting himself publicity would actually be beneficial.
I can see Johnson as Foreign Sec and on the Brexit Committee along with May, the Home Sec and the person doing the actual work on Brexit. Gove maybe Home Sec. He needs to be in a department where he won't cause too much damage. Johnson is lazy and is less of a risk. Whether May wants to give Leavers two of the top cabinet posts depends on how much she thinks she needs to keep them and their faction on board, compared with rewarding her followers.
Gove as Home Secretary could set about doing those things that he would say were his new boss's failings in her six years in the job. His first negotiation will be asking her for an extra billion quid for an effective Border Patrol....
Hmm. Maybe not Home Sec. Gove is a godawful administrator. Is there a high profile department where he can do all the things that make the Tory grassroots warm and fuzzy, without irreparably blowing up what that Department exists to do?
Easy. He stays at Justice where he's doing some good work.
Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
Demand three contradictory things, send a delegation of leavers to negotiate it, referendum on the result, after that goes down she has some options.
We just need a fudge, nothing more. We have ridiculous pull factors for eastern european migrants some of which are in our own hands. Add qualifying periods for access to welfare for everyone, EU have no problem with that.
Yep, the solution is easy, the problem was a lack of a political will and politically acceptable means. Given the Brexit vote now is the perfect time to get those things in place as the pain that previously existed isn't there at the moment....
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.
Chris Grayling is the man of the moment. Either he becomes Chancellor, or in my view marginally more likely, he takes on the Brexit role. Are there odds on that?
Grayling to Home Secretary with Hammond and Osborne swapping roles would be my option for stability.
Certainly very possible and not unattractive....I wonder what Grayling himself would like.
All this the Queen is not in London, if she is at Windsor then both Cam and May can go to her!
I believe that she is at Balmoral...
No she doesn't go to Balmoral until the end of July. She may still be at Holyroodhouse
It would be entertaining to see Cam and May having to go to the 'other' palace (May in tartan suit no doubt), attended by mystified crowds of foreign tourists laden with all their juicy exchange rate shopping.
Why not Cameron in the clan Cameron tartan kilt too?
I guess the most likely scenario is for Cameron to go to the Palace after doing PMQs for a final time on Wednesday afternoon. Blair did the same thing IIRC.
I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.
If and when PM May agrees an EEA deal it is also equally possible UKIP could get up to 25% much of it at the Tories expense so both the Tories and Labour could be under 30%, though the Tories still probably ahead
Why would the EEA deal be mostly at the Tories expense when it was in no small parts Labour WWC Leavers that are most bothered by migration. EEA will appeal to a lot of Tory leavers, it won't appeal to many Labour leavers.
Because it would be the Tories pushing it through and far more Tories voted Leave than Labour voters. Labour will be affected too of course but Tory seats in Kent and Essex and Lincolnshire etc would all be prime UKIP targets after an EEA deal
Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?
This is the way I'm looking at it. Winning the vote and getting a version of Brexit and not being full EU members will at least be a consolation, though I think only the soft leavers like my parents will be truly happy with what May delivers.
We can't have a divided nation split basically 50/50 down the middle, we need a PM who can try to find an acceptable middle ground option on Brexit. Theresa won't satisfy everyone, there will always be those wedded to 100% full-on EU integration and those 100% full-on nothing at all to do with the EU isolationists. But most of us, whichever way we voted on the 23rd, want to find an acceptable happy medium. I think "a soft version of Brexit" will satisfy possibly 75% of the electorate, which is good enough. I think May, supported by the talent around her, can achieve it.
Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?
A pro-Remain PM given the job as a result of enormous media pressure exerted on her rival.
You mean, 'examining her CV' and 'publishing what she said'?
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.
Boris Johnson in charge of defence ?!
Are you mad ?
Did you actually read what I wrote, or were you replying to Brom's post? I don't think Boris is really ministerial material. Can you imagine him doing his red boxes? Party Chairman at best. Or possibly Minister for Cheering People Up.
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I think Letwin is presently head of Brexit though Davis may join him
Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?
This is the way I'm looking at it. Winning the vote and getting a version of Brexit and not being full EU members will at least be a consolation, though I think only the soft leavers like my parents will be truly happy with what May delivers.
We can't have a divided nation split basically 50/50 down the middle, we need a PM who can try to find an acceptable middle ground option on Brexit. Theresa won't satisfy everyone, there will always be those wedded to 100% full-on EU integration and those 100% full-on nothing at all to do with the EU isolationists. But most of us, whichever way we voted on the 23rd, want to find an acceptable happy medium. I think "a soft version of Brexit" will satisfy possibly 75% of the electorate, which is good enough. I think May, supported by the talent around her, can achieve it.
I think the vast bulk of us would have been happy with EU membership with some quicksand around migration. That was all they had to offer the PM when he asked them. But they know best and now their entire project is looking shaky.
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
We need to be completely rid of Osborne for a while (and useless bloody Letwin)
Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?
This is the way I'm looking at it. Winning the vote and getting a version of Brexit and not being full EU members will at least be a consolation, though I think only the soft leavers like my parents will be truly happy with what May delivers.
We can't have a divided nation split basically 50/50 down the middle, we need a PM who can try to find an acceptable middle ground option on Brexit. Theresa won't satisfy everyone, there will always be those wedded to 100% full-on EU integration and those 100% full-on nothing at all to do with the EU isolationists. But most of us, whichever way we voted on the 23rd, want to find an acceptable happy medium. I think "a soft version of Brexit" will satisfy possibly 75% of the electorate, which is good enough. I think May, supported by the talent around her, can achieve it.
Why did the referendum divide the country more deeply than a GE ?
Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?
Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?
All this the Queen is not in London, if she is at Windsor then both Cam and May can go to her!
I believe that she is at Balmoral...
No she doesn't go to Balmoral until the end of July. She may still be at Holyroodhouse
It would be entertaining to see Cam and May having to go to the 'other' palace (May in tartan suit no doubt), attended by mystified crowds of foreign tourists laden with all their juicy exchange rate shopping.
Why not Cameron in the clan Cameron tartan kilt too?
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.
Boris Johnson in charge of defence ?!
Are you mad ?
Did you actually read what I wrote, or were you replying to Brom's post? I don't think Boris is really ministerial material. Can you imagine him doing his red boxes? Party Chairman at best. Or possibly Minister for Cheering People Up.
Defence is a serious job for a serious man.
Boris should get the Ministry of fun, much more suited to his talents.
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.
Boris Johnson in charge of defence ?!
Are you mad ?
My thoughts too.
Of course Johnson won't get defence.
(As a US citizen, he'd be liable to arrest in the US if he tried to enter on his British passport. Which hasn't stopped him being called a "Putin apologist". He wasn't even allowed to be in the proper cabinet.)
Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?
This is the way I'm looking at it. Winning the vote and getting a version of Brexit and not being full EU members will at least be a consolation, though I think only the soft leavers like my parents will be truly happy with what May delivers.
We can't have a divided nation split basically 50/50 down the middle, we need a PM who can try to find an acceptable middle ground option on Brexit. Theresa won't satisfy everyone, there will always be those wedded to 100% full-on EU integration and those 100% full-on nothing at all to do with the EU isolationists. But most of us, whichever way we voted on the 23rd, want to find an acceptable happy medium. I think "a soft version of Brexit" will satisfy possibly 75% of the electorate, which is good enough. I think May, supported by the talent around her, can achieve it.
Well, quite. Leave/remain is settled in the same way that the "Is heavier than air flight possible?" debate is settled. And it becomes clearer that that is the way things are, with every day that passes since June 23rd.
Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?
Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?
It's grandstanding, if there was a motion to hold an election they wouldn't vote for it.
We can't have a divided nation split basically 50/50 down the middle, we need a PM who can try to find an acceptable middle ground option on Brexit. Theresa won't satisfy everyone, there will always be those wedded to 100% full-on EU integration and those 100% full-on nothing at all to do with the EU isolationists. But most of us, whichever way we voted on the 23rd, want to find an acceptable happy medium. I think "a soft version of Brexit" will satisfy possibly 75% of the electorate, which is good enough. I think May, supported by the talent around her, can achieve it.
I wonder what the "racist old bitch" who had the temerity to smile at you in the polling station thinks?
All this the Queen is not in London, if she is at Windsor then both Cam and May can go to her!
I believe that she is at Balmoral...
No she doesn't go to Balmoral until the end of July. She may still be at Holyroodhouse
It would be entertaining to see Cam and May having to go to the 'other' palace (May in tartan suit no doubt), attended by mystified crowds of foreign tourists laden with all their juicy exchange rate shopping.
Why not Cameron in the clan Cameron tartan kilt too?
I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.
No evidence whatsoever for the 15% point. Labour shouldn't touch the Greens with a ten foot pole.
I agree. I've had similar suggestions from the same sort of person on the right, advocating Con-UKIP deals. Both big parties would be nuts to go down that road.
It all sounds very clever when sat in committee rooms but the public tend to resent being told what to do in that way and can be disinclined to play ball.
Tactical voting worked in 1997, but it wasn't explicitly endorsed by the parties. I think you're right that being seen to tell voters what do can backfire, but getting some sort of informal arrangements in certain seats could help massively.
1. Tactical voting worked in 1997 because (a) the two parties were close together in policy terms and (b) because both were acceptable anti-Tory vehicles, which was the dominant political mood at the time. That's far from the case now.
2. Going down the tactical voting route was a strategic disaster for the Lib Dems in the longer term because it hard-wired Labour voters into their voting coalition and meant that they'd ultimately be likely to have to choose between propping up a failing and discredited Labour government ,and so being tainted by association, or breaking faith with those tactical voters and backing the Tories in government. Both routes were likely to end up in a horrible car-crash of an election, though playing their hand badly while in government made it even worse.
Fantastic news re Leadsom quitting. It's hilarious that even Andrea Leadsom can see that having less than 25% of your parliamentary party supporting you is a recipe for disaster, but Corbyn cannot. And of course Paul Mason would say what's he's just said. Mason should really be careful what he wishes for. A GE is going to show him and other militant leftists exactly how much support their politics has in this country, and I don't think they'll take it well. I bet Mason wasn't demanding a new GE when Gordon Brown became PM nearly ten years ago.
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.
Boris Johnson in charge of defence ?!
Are you mad ?
Did you actually read what I wrote, or were you replying to Brom's post? I don't think Boris is really ministerial material. Can you imagine him doing his red boxes? Party Chairman at best. Or possibly Minister for Cheering People Up.
I'd be surprised if he didn't get a ministerial role. He's a big player, had success in London and will be a useful asset to May if she keeps him onside. Remember Boris can reach voters that other Tory MPs cannot and to keep friends close to you and enemies closer may apply to Bozza if she wishes to stave off a future coup.
But yes maybe he's more likely to get culture than defence!
We can't have a divided nation split basically 50/50 down the middle, we need a PM who can try to find an acceptable middle ground option on Brexit. Theresa won't satisfy everyone, there will always be those wedded to 100% full-on EU integration and those 100% full-on nothing at all to do with the EU isolationists. But most of us, whichever way we voted on the 23rd, want to find an acceptable happy medium. I think "a soft version of Brexit" will satisfy possibly 75% of the electorate, which is good enough. I think May, supported by the talent around her, can achieve it.
I wonder what the "racist old bitch" who had the temerity to smile at you in the polling station thinks?
I'll never know. I think I said "cow" though, to be fair. :-)
CoTE surely. There just aren't that many Brexit permutations. We've a choice of a couple of umbrella treaties (EFTA/EEA), a completely bespoke agreement, or trading under WTO rules (with a couple of variants, e.g. unilateral zero import tariffs).
We don't have infinite room for maneuver. The only substantive question is financial passporting, yes or no?
Plus, and here is the gift that will keep on giving for whoever is given the role, years and years of ditchwater dull domestic law re-writing as we formulate our independent way.
Setting up of the new British Board of Protected Food Labelling anyone? (x1000)
In the longer run, Minister for Brexit is going to be good job for someone who you don't like quite well enough to give the Northern Ireland role.
Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?
This is the way I'm looking at it. Winning the vote and getting a version of Brexit and not being full EU members will at least be a consolation, though I think only the soft leavers like my parents will be truly happy with what May delivers.
We can't have a divided nation split basically 50/50 down the middle, we need a PM who can try to find an acceptable middle ground option on Brexit. Theresa won't satisfy everyone, there will always be those wedded to 100% full-on EU integration and those 100% full-on nothing at all to do with the EU isolationists. But most of us, whichever way we voted on the 23rd, want to find an acceptable happy medium. I think "a soft version of Brexit" will satisfy possibly 75% of the electorate, which is good enough. I think May, supported by the talent around her, can achieve it.
May's problem is that there are enough Tory MPs who are not in the happy medium camp to deny her a majority in the Commons. That's why the case for an early GE looks so compelling.
@charlywoodsy: Thing is, the Tories have now had their squabble, thrown a few punches and shook hands before Labour have even managed to tie their laces
Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?
I object very strongly to the notion of members not getting a vote. A pro-Remain PM given the job as a result of enormous media pressure exerted on her rival.
I like democracy and would accept the result whether it was May or not. I'm politically homeless right now.
No Plato. It was not the result of 'enormous media pressure'. Leadsom shot herself in the foot, and then turned the gun and shot her campaign in the back. She was the architect, designer, builder, and labourer of her own misfortune.
If you want to blame anyone for your not getting a say, blame Leadsom.
After all, you were undecided and willing to listen, weren't you?
@charlywoodsy: Thing is, the Tories have now had their squabble, thrown a few punches and shook hands before Labour have even managed to tie their laces
It's worse than that. They are still fitting the horseshoes into the gloves....
Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?
Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?
I think that they were urging a GE right from Cameron's resignation speech.
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.
Boris Johnson in charge of defence ?!
Are you mad ?
Did you actually read what I wrote, or were you replying to Brom's post? I don't think Boris is really ministerial material. Can you imagine him doing his red boxes? Party Chairman at best. Or possibly Minister for Cheering People Up.
Defence is a serious job for a serious man.
Boris should get the Ministry of fun, much more suited to his talents.
Ministry of Fun, that sounds like something out of 1984!
Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?
Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?
I think that they were urging a GE right from Cameron's resignation speech.
And yet they were the party who pushed for the fixed term parliaments act.
CoTE surely. There just aren't that many Brexit permutations. We've a choice of a couple of umbrella treaties (EFTA/EEA), a completely bespoke agreement, or trading under WTO rules (with a couple of variants, e.g. unilateral zero import tariffs).
We don't have infinite room for maneuver. The only substantive question is financial passporting, yes or no?
Brexit is a major duck lining up exercise. Negotiating with a relatively weak hand, making sure the widely disparate parties are on board and then managing the sequencing. Difficult job that I can see going to an ambitious but competent younger politician. If that person pulls it off without an major upset, he/she will be in a very strong position for following on from May.
May - PM Hammond - Chancellor Grayling - Home Osborn - Foreign Davis - Head of Brexit Gove - Justice Javid - Education Leadsom - Business Fox - Health Johnson - Defence Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.
Boris Johnson in charge of defence ?!
Are you mad ?
Did you actually read what I wrote, or were you replying to Brom's post? I don't think Boris is really ministerial material. Can you imagine him doing his red boxes? Party Chairman at best. Or possibly Minister for Cheering People Up.
Defence is a serious job for a serious man.
Boris should get the Ministry of fun, much more suited to his talents.
Ministry of Fun, that sounds like something out of 1984!
@charlywoodsy: Thing is, the Tories have now had their squabble, thrown a few punches and shook hands before Labour have even managed to tie their laces
Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?
Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?
It's grandstanding, if there was a motion to hold an election they wouldn't vote for it.
Comments
Louise Mensch Cannot fault this from Theresa May. Excellent and unifying.
We don't have infinite room for maneuver. The only substantive question is financial passporting, yes or no?
Hammond - Chancellor
Grayling - Home
Osborn - Foreign
Davis - Head of Brexit
Gove - Justice
Javid - Education
Leadsom - Business
Fox - Health
Johnson - Defence
Rudd - Culture
would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.
I remember reading about the politics of the 70's back in my A-level days - feels a bit similar to the fracturing of the postwar consensus.
Usually the winners - those who will forge the new post-brexit political consensus - are the ones who are the best organised when the tectonic plates shift.
13 July 2016
Her Majesty The Queen
accompanied by The Duke of Edinburgh, will visit East Anglian Air Ambulance at Cambridge Airport to officially open the Egerton-Smith Centre, Newmarket Road, Cambridge.
14 July 2016
Her Majesty The Queen, The Duke of Edinburgh
Buckingham Palace
will give a Reception for winners of The Queen's Award for Enterprise, at Buckingham Palace.
(her speech was like "Ed Miliband reheated" was what I heard...
"Real Leadership" - a new range of perfume from Argelu, the House of Leadsom...
"Dear Public. I trust you but those on the other side do not. They stand in the way of democracy etc. etc. etc."
13 July 2016
Her Majesty The Queen accompanied by The Duke of Edinburgh, will visit East Anglian Air Ambulance at Cambridge Airport to officially open the Egerton-Smith Centre, Newmarket Road, Cambridge.
14 July 2016
Her Majesty The Queen, The Duke of Edinburgh will give a Reception for winners of The Queen's Award for Enterprise, at Buckingham Palace.
https://www.royal.uk/future-engagements
So presumably she's heading south soon.....
This says so much, watch the video.
edit:
apologies already posted.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/markets/europe/lse_ukx
Are you mad ?
Soon to be the booted eagle?
OH HAPPY DAY!!!!
We can sleep a lot easier in our beds tonight. Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant.
#Just sayin
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Scott? Scott......?
Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?
http://tinyurl.com/gwwxozp
Boris should get the Ministry of fun, much more suited to his talents.
Of course Johnson won't get defence.
(As a US citizen, he'd be liable to arrest in the US if he tried to enter on his British passport. Which hasn't stopped him being called a "Putin apologist". He wasn't even allowed to be in the proper cabinet.)
Theresa May @ 33/1
Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Single To Win
Theresa May @ 18/1
Next Conservative Leader
Single To Win
Theresa May @ 12/1
Next Conservative Leader
https://www.tartanregister.gov.uk/tartanDetails.aspx?ref=3792
2. Going down the tactical voting route was a strategic disaster for the Lib Dems in the longer term because it hard-wired Labour voters into their voting coalition and meant that they'd ultimately be likely to have to choose between propping up a failing and discredited Labour government ,and so being tainted by association, or breaking faith with those tactical voters and backing the Tories in government. Both routes were likely to end up in a horrible car-crash of an election, though playing their hand badly while in government made it even worse.
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/752480844665806848
In Sterling, worth so much more than they were this morning
But yes maybe he's more likely to get culture than defence!
Setting up of the new British Board of Protected Food Labelling anyone? (x1000)
In the longer run, Minister for Brexit is going to be good job for someone who you don't like quite well enough to give the Northern Ireland role.
Leadsom = Realist
Corbyn = Fantascist
If you want to blame anyone for your not getting a say, blame Leadsom.
After all, you were undecided and willing to listen, weren't you?
Can this day get any better?
Just aski.. stirring ..