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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leadsom quits the race. Big question now is whether May is

SystemSystem Posts: 11,688
edited July 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leadsom quits the race. Big question now is whether May is declared winner

Leadsom quits race pic.twitter.com/KisrMlXyPg

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    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    edited July 2016
    And what about a GE? No mandate for TM now!
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Theresa May, the Conservative party's Gordon Brown. Gets a reputation for being competent by staying in a top job for a long time despite mediocre performance, gets to be PM without a real fight.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Spin on this, Richard Dawkins! Of course there's a God....and He is merciful!

    Marquee Mark 7:51AM

    I'm hoping that God might yet have a quiet word with Mother Superior - and gets her to stand down.

    If He is a merciful God, it would spare us all two months more of this.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    FPT:

    Mr. 86, literally?

    Yes.
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Are the 22 going to ask Eagle to step into the contest?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,139
    It appears May is the Portugal of Westminster politics (apols if this has already been observed).
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Looks like being humiliated by Andy Murray at the tennis will be Dave's swansong now on the international stage.

    A bit unfitting, but hey ho...
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Repost FPT:


    Leadsom has gone up in my estimations. Gracious and in the overwhelming interests of the Party and the country.

    Well done.

    And congratulations to our new PM, Theresa May. I wish her well. I think she will do well.

    Labour - this is how you sort out leadership issues. The Tories are (the IDS saga aside) rather good at this.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632
    Reopen nominations!!!

    Go Boris!!!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    In two of the last three Tory leadership contests the membership hasn't been granted a vote.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Britain's Prague spring.

    UKIP will be doing handsprings.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Second Tory women PM.

    Labour have AWS, Tories just go for it.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Right decision. She had just enough wisdom to realize she was dangerously out of her depth and no good could have come from carrying on.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The Con leadership contest has been brutally efficient at weeding out those least suitable for the job in such a short period of time.

    Labour on the other hand..
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Is Boris seriously suggesting RON ?
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    FPT
    matt said:

    This does not look like a cake walk premiership for Mrs May. She will start out with 100+ of her MPs not wanting her there and another group within her supporters, watching her carefully for what she does on Brexit and this "drift to the centre". Added to that are the rabid spreaders of poison, which Boles and Soubry rank amongst the worst (rank being the smell involved). If those folk feature in the new Govt, Mrs May will hardly be encouraging unity.

    It's odd isn't that you avoid mentioning Duncan-Smith et al in relation to your penultimate sentence. It's almost as if you're not being entirely impartial.
    I had no noticed any attack from IDS on Mrs May (please link to that if available), but IDS is not expected to feature in the new Govt. IDS's attacks were on Osborne and Cameron at the time of his resignation. Soubry has a long list of fellow MPs that she has attacked as has Boles.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,727
    Guardian:

    What was significant about Leadsom’s statement was not just that she said she was withdrawing, but that she said that as a candidate with so little support amongst Tory MP she would not have been able to run a strong government.

    As I write Iain Duncan Smith, a Leadsom supporter and former Tory leader, is saying he agrees. He says he wants to see May become PM as soon as possible.

    After this is it hard to see how the 1922 committee could reopen the contest. Leadsom had the backing of 84 Tory MPs - 25% of the total. Michael Gove, who was in third place, got just 46 - or 14%.

    For the ultra-Eurosceptic leave Tories, this has been a disaster. A majority of Tory members backed leave, three of the five original candidates were Brexiteer, but their champion has now backed out after just three days on the final shortlist.

    Leadsom’s statement did not include anything about the pressure she has been under, which has reflected her relative inexperience. But it did not need to; it is clear that what she said about the importance of support amongst the parliamentary party, and about a nine-week campaign being too long (on Friday her team were saying nine weeks was just right) is at least in part just cover for the fact she did not want to go on.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "@LabourEoin
    Theresa May's speech & now ascent to PM are great news for Jeremy Corbyn. Shifts the entire UK political trajectory significantly leftwards."

    twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/752463990958202880
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    It's a no brainer isn't it? I agree Scotland is an issue, but Scotland is going to be an issue anyway whatever happens. Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    That's one reason, but there is another. As has been pointed out, if she goes to a GE having not triggered Article 50 UKIP could do very well indeed. I'd expect Farage to cancel his resignation again.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Leadsom and Eagle are dressed up as each other for their respective statements. What is that all about?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited July 2016
    Essexit said:

    Theresa May, the Conservative party's Gordon Brown. Gets a reputation for being competent by staying in a top job for a long time despite mediocre performance, gets to be PM without a real fight.

    If Theresa May proves to be shite at being PM, we have plenty of time to shove her out the door of 10 Downing Street and find someone better. Hopefully, one that the membership get to vote on when the atmosphere at large is rather less febrile.

    But that said, I think she might be really rather good. We should get some steer from her choice of Cabinet. I hope she starts with a clean sheet of paper.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Shadsy has paid out on Leadsom quitting before July 31st.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Let forth the headbangers ....poor old IDS

    I'm so going to enjoy the tweets of Mensch, Richards et al..

    Righteous fury to follow.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    AndyJS said:

    In two of the last three Tory leadership contests the membership hasn't been granted a vote.

    After IDS that's a bad thing?????
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Queen is in Scotland, May in Birmingham.
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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 905
    "Leadsom has gone up in my estimations."

    Well I suppose, she couldn't go any lower! What on earth was she thinking of standing. Surely the support of IDS should have told her she had no chance.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Ishmael_X said:

    Leadsom and Eagle are dressed up as each other for their respective statements. What is that all about?

    It's this season's Loser Look...
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,465
    Could May be in place today?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Looks like being humiliated by Andy Murray at the tennis will be Dave's swansong now on the international stage.

    A bit unfitting, but hey ho...

    What was that?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''If Theresa May proves to be shite at being PM, we have plenty of time to shove her out the door of 10 Downing Street and find someone better.''

    Tories couldn;t have arranged this better....for UKIP.

    What an opportunity.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    DanSmith said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    It's a no brainer isn't it? I agree Scotland is an issue, but Scotland is going to be an issue anyway whatever happens. Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least.
    I suspect May is probably thinking more about what is in the interests of the nation at the moment, as anyone about to assume the highest office in the land should be, not about how to completely screw over the Labour Party...
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    Seems Corbyn was correct that the best path to become PM was to be nominally in favour of remain but not to lift a finger.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Oh gods, why Leadsom?! A contest was a good thing for the party to have, and the country too as it happens - while the delay on a new PM was vexing, it was only a few months and would enable a debate to play out in the Tories about what Brexit type to go for. Were you not ready, like Umunna? Then why stand in the first place?
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    Mark Wallace @wallaceme
    Leadsom's departure still leaves quite a lot of Tory MPs with concerns about ensuring Brexit really happens. They'll be watching May closely
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311

    Reopen nominations!!!

    Go Boris!!!

    I agree. Being elected unopposed made Brown even worse than he would otherwise have been.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I suspect May is probably thinking more about what is in the interests of the nation

    The only interests Theresa May ever thinks about are those of one T. May.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    AndyJS said:

    "@LabourEoin
    Theresa May's speech & now ascent to PM are great news for Jeremy Corbyn. Shifts the entire UK political trajectory significantly leftwards."

    twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/752463990958202880

    He is priceless... long may he be involved with the Labour party.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    Queen is in Scotland, May in Birmingham.

    I didn't think Nicola leaves Scotland much...... :)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    DanSmith said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    It's a no brainer isn't it? I agree Scotland is an issue, but Scotland is going to be an issue anyway whatever happens. Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least.
    I suspect May is probably thinking more about what is in the interests of the nation at the moment, as anyone about to assume the highest office in the land should be, not about how to completely screw over the Labour Party...
    Wonder if she could get the snap GE through the house with the 2/3rds majority - Tories unanimous, SNP probably in favour, Labour not - not sure about Lib Dems or various NI parties, or PC.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Leadsom statement 12.15, 1922 Chair 12.30, May campaign chief 12.45, Tory MPs all pulling together and pledging support to Theresa - all feels rather well co-ordinated this.

    Good on the Tories if so.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Mark Wallace @wallaceme
    Leadsom's departure still leaves quite a lot of Tory MPs with concerns about ensuring Brexit really happens. They'll be watching May closely

    Given how useless these Tory MPs have been at even organising a leadership bid, they should sit down and let the grown ups get on with running things rather than delude themselves into thinking that they could do better.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Brady says May's victory is final.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    "Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least."

    Perhaps, but what about the Queensbury Rules? No hitting when your opponent's on the floor. And someone will replace them - either Ukip (if Art 50 hasn't been invoked) or a new electable Labour Party?
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    eekeek Posts: 24,985

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    The SNP have 56 of the 59 seats, there are none left for them to win so any mandate really wouldn't carry any more weight than it did before...
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    AndyJS said:

    "@LabourEoin
    Theresa May's speech & now ascent to PM are great news for Jeremy Corbyn. Shifts the entire UK political trajectory significantly leftwards."
    twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/752463990958202880

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Leadson got a much greater percentage of CON MPs backing her than Corbyn has ever had from LAB MPs.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    kle4 said:

    Oh gods, why Leadsom?! A contest was a good thing for the party to have, and the country too as it happens - while the delay on a new PM was vexing, it was only a few months and would enable a debate to play out in the Tories about what Brexit type to go for. Were you not ready, like Umunna? Then why stand in the first place?

    Irritating for May as well - we know some people are paranoid Brexit will not happen, or not happen in the right way (the former highly implausible, the latter a matter of opinion) and now not having been beaten in a contest they'll just continue to snipe away at any hint of nuance or caution.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    Brady confirms: no reopening of the contest. May will be PM very soon
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''

    LOL
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    edited July 2016
    Brady confirms May "IS" the Tory Leader.

    Er, no - now BBC backtrack: "he needs to consult as to whether she is"!

    WTF?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    kle4 said:

    Oh gods, why Leadsom?! A contest was a good thing for the party to have, and the country too as it happens - while the delay on a new PM was vexing, it was only a few months and would enable a debate to play out in the Tories about what Brexit type to go for. Were you not ready, like Umunna? Then why stand in the first place?

    It is disappointing. :(

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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,465

    Leadsom statement 12.15, 1922 Chair 12.30, May campaign chief 12.45, Tory MPs all pulling together and pledging support to Theresa - all feels rather well co-ordinated this.

    Good on the Tories if so.

    Tories do political manoeuvre properly, compared to the shower in Labour
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    edited July 2016
    I'm so glad I subscribe to The Times, they made Leadsom's departure happen.

    That subscription is worth every penny, I'm never cancelling my subscription.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    It's a no brainer isn't it? I agree Scotland is an issue, but Scotland is going to be an issue anyway whatever happens. Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least.
    I suspect May is probably thinking more about what is in the interests of the nation at the moment, as anyone about to assume the highest office in the land should be, not about how to completely screw over the Labour Party...
    Wonder if she could get the snap GE through the house with the 2/3rds majority - Tories unanimous, SNP probably in favour, Labour not - not sure about Lib Dems or various NI parties, or PC.
    Why would the SNP be in favour, they have nothing to gain.
    They may want to see how a May government deals with the fallout of Brexit.
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    PoliticsHome
    @politicshome
    NEW: 1922 C'ttee chair Graham Brady asked if any chance or reopening leadership contest: "None whatsoever." http://polho.me/29CD0U5
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Not much of a bounce from the FTSE.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,824
    Essexit said:

    Theresa May, the Conservative party's Gordon Brown. Gets a reputation for being competent by staying in a top job for a long time despite mediocre performance, gets to be PM without a real fight.

    Indeed. Disaster awaits the Tories I think.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Will Leadsom get a top Cabinet position?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh gods, why Leadsom?! A contest was a good thing for the party to have, and the country too as it happens - while the delay on a new PM was vexing, it was only a few months and would enable a debate to play out in the Tories about what Brexit type to go for. Were you not ready, like Umunna? Then why stand in the first place?

    Irritating for May as well - we know some people are paranoid Brexit will not happen, or not happen in the right way (the former highly implausible, the latter a matter of opinion) and now not having been beaten in a contest they'll just continue to snipe away at any hint of nuance or caution.
    And not having been beaten in a contest where, presumably, May would argue as she has done to delay article 50, they will be able to continually pressure her to do it and do it now. Why wait?
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    edited July 2016
    Essexit said:

    Theresa May, the Conservative party's Gordon Brown. Gets a reputation for being competent by staying in a top job for a long time despite mediocre performance, gets to be PM without a real fight.

    I was very pleased to see Mr Brown achieve his ambition after so many years, and was grieved for him that it turned out to be the worst possible thing for him.

    I don't think there is any parallel between that unopposed takeover and this open competition, even though Conservative members would have preferred to have had their say in the matter.

    (edited to add: good afternoon, everyone)
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721

    Leadsom statement 12.15, 1922 Chair 12.30, May campaign chief 12.45, Tory MPs all pulling together and pledging support to Theresa - all feels rather well co-ordinated this.

    Good on the Tories if so.

    Tories do political manoeuvre properly, compared to the shower in Labour
    IDS?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Leadsom statement 12.15, 1922 Chair 12.30, May campaign chief 12.45, Tory MPs all pulling together and pledging support to Theresa - all feels rather well co-ordinated this.

    Good on the Tories if so.

    Tories do political manoeuvre properly, compared to the shower in Labour
    You missed one. Theresa's speech this morning which was a pitch to voters, not members.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    AndyJS said:

    Will Leadsom get a top Cabinet position?

    No, but she'll put one in her CV anyway. :lol:
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited July 2016
    I hope Michael Gove is sitting down, having a long hard look at how things panned out. And saying to himself "oooooops." Fox was always dead meat. Crabbe was along for the ride. Leadsom was never top two run-off material. Gove made the unilateral decision that Boris wasn't up to the job. But that should have been for the members to decide, after a 9 week campaign. Boris was a far stronger Brexit candidate than Leadsom, whatever his faults. Now we have a coronation of a Remainer (albeit, perhaps not a very committed one).

    Way to go, Gove. Way to fucking go....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488

    Brady confirms May "IS" the Tory Leader.

    Er, no - now BBC backtrack: "he needs to consult as to whether she is"!

    WTF?

    He didn't want to preempt the Queen
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176

    I'm so glad I subscribe to The Times, they made Leadsom's departure happen.

    That subscription is worth every penny, I'm never cancelling my subscription.

    So am I - have read The Times since the age of 16.

    It was a bit gutter press, but Rachel Sylvester deserves an OBE for her services to the country...
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    Spin on this, Richard Dawkins! Of course there's a God....and He is merciful!

    Marquee Mark 7:51AM

    I'm hoping that God might yet have a quiet word with Mother Superior - and gets her to stand down.

    If He is a merciful God, it would spare us all two months more of this.

    :smiley:
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    JonathanD said:

    Mark Wallace @wallaceme
    Leadsom's departure still leaves quite a lot of Tory MPs with concerns about ensuring Brexit really happens. They'll be watching May closely

    Given how useless these Tory MPs have been at even organising a leadership bid, they should sit down and let the grown ups get on with running things rather than delude themselves into thinking that they could do better.
    Oh really? Is that an area that Labour MPs can give lessons in?
    :smile:
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    I'm so glad I subscribe to The Times, they made Leadsom's departure happen.

    That subscription is worth every penny, I'm never cancelling my subscription.

    Yes, they have once again proved the power of the press. Rachel Sylvester gave Leadsom just enough rope and well look at the results. Well worth the couple of quid per week.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    The Tories are going to have leads of 10%+ in the next batch of opinion polls.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    taffys said:

    ''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''

    LOL

    Yes it would be a cause for celebrations and laughing out loud.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Indeed. Disaster awaits the Tories I think. ''

    The country wants change.

    The tories gave them fudger May.

    They will not be forgiven.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    I hope Michael Gove is sitting down, having a long hard look at how things panned out. And saying to himself "oooooops." Fox was always dead meat. Crabbe was along for the ride. Leadsom was never top two run-off material. Gove made the unilateral decision that Boris wasn't up to the job. But that should have been for the members to decide, after a 9 week campaign. Boris was a far stronger Brexit candidate than Leadsom, whatever his faults. Now we have a coronation of a Remainer (albeit, perhaps not a very committed one).

    Way to go, Gove. Way to fucking go....

    Yes, Gove screwed up immensely.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    DanSmith said:

    The Tories are going to have leads of 10%+ in the next batch of opinion polls.

    Yes there should be a honeymoon period. People will be thankful for a bit of peace and quiet.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    DanSmith said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    It's a no brainer isn't it? I agree Scotland is an issue, but Scotland is going to be an issue anyway whatever happens. Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least.
    I suspect May is probably thinking more about what is in the interests of the nation at the moment, as anyone about to assume the highest office in the land should be, not about how to completely screw over the Labour Party...
    Well said
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    taffys said:

    ''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''

    LOL

    I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    It's a no brainer isn't it? I agree Scotland is an issue, but Scotland is going to be an issue anyway whatever happens. Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least.
    I suspect May is probably thinking more about what is in the interests of the nation at the moment, as anyone about to assume the highest office in the land should be, not about how to completely screw over the Labour Party...
    Wonder if she could get the snap GE through the house with the 2/3rds majority - Tories unanimous, SNP probably in favour, Labour not - not sure about Lib Dems or various NI parties, or PC.
    Why would the SNP be in favour, they have nothing to gain.
    They may want to see how a May government deals with the fallout of Brexit.
    Because they have a chance to get rid of a Tory government.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    I hope Michael Gove is sitting down, having a long hard look at how things panned out. And saying to himself "oooooops." Fox was always dead meat. Crabbe was along for the ride. Leadsom was never top two run-off material. Gove made the unilateral decision that Boris wasn't up to the job. But that should have been for the members to decide, after a 9 week campaign. Boris was a far stronger Brexit candidate than Leadsom, whatever his faults. Now we have a coronation of a Remainer (albeit, perhaps not a very committed one).

    Way to go, Gove. Way to fucking go....

    Mrs May will be coronated crowned because of Gove's vanity and Mrs Gove's ambition.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,730
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh gods, why Leadsom?! A contest was a good thing for the party to have, and the country too as it happens - while the delay on a new PM was vexing, it was only a few months and would enable a debate to play out in the Tories about what Brexit type to go for. Were you not ready, like Umunna? Then why stand in the first place?

    Irritating for May as well - we know some people are paranoid Brexit will not happen, or not happen in the right way (the former highly implausible, the latter a matter of opinion) and now not having been beaten in a contest they'll just continue to snipe away at any hint of nuance or caution.
    She can answer that by being elected on a manifesto containing whatever Brexit settlement she comes up with. The question is whether she can resolve that convincingly and quickly enough to take advantage of the relief that her leadership election will have in the post-referendum chaos.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I hope Michael Gove is sitting down, having a long hard look at how things panned out. And saying to himself "oooooops." Fox was always dead meat. Crabbe was along for the ride. Leadsom was never top two run-off material. Gove made the unilateral decision that Boris wasn't up to the job. But that should have been for the members to decide, after a 9 week campaign. Boris was a far stronger Brexit candidate than Leadsom, whatever his faults. Now we have a coronation of a Remainer (albeit, perhaps not a very committed one).

    Way to go, Gove. Way to fucking go....

    Quite.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,824
    taffys said:

    ''Indeed. Disaster awaits the Tories I think. ''

    The country wants change.

    The tories gave them fudger May.

    They will not be forgiven.

    We'll see what she does but if Theresa thinks she can get away with not implementing Brexit the 17m who voted LEAVE will have no other choice than to take the UKIP route in 2020.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sean_F said:

    I hope Michael Gove is sitting down, having a long hard look at how things panned out. And saying to himself "oooooops." Fox was always dead meat. Crabbe was along for the ride. Leadsom was never top two run-off material. Gove made the unilateral decision that Boris wasn't up to the job. But that should have been for the members to decide, after a 9 week campaign. Boris was a far stronger Brexit candidate than Leadsom, whatever his faults. Now we have a coronation of a Remainer (albeit, perhaps not a very committed one).

    Way to go, Gove. Way to fucking go....

    Yes, Gove screwed up immensely.
    I hope Gove and Johnson are excluded from the new government.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Pulpstar said:

    Wonder if she could get the snap GE through the house with the 2/3rds majority - Tories unanimous, SNP probably in favour, Labour not - not sure about Lib Dems or various NI parties, or PC.

    Which parties have the money to fight a general election right now? Tories, obviously - they always have enough to overspend. The rest, no idea, but probably not.

    So why would they help the Tories set aside the FTPA, just to let the Tories have a larger majority?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    taffys said:

    ''Indeed. Disaster awaits the Tories I think. ''

    The country wants change.

    The tories gave them fudger May.

    They will not be forgiven.

    It all depends whether May gives the country change.

    If we get Brexit that is indistinguishable from EU membership, and continued mass migration, then I think she will be seen as the Conservatives' Gordon Brown. If she plots a more radical path, then she may be another Thatcher.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    It's a no brainer isn't it? I agree Scotland is an issue, but Scotland is going to be an issue anyway whatever happens. Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least.
    I suspect May is probably thinking more about what is in the interests of the nation at the moment, as anyone about to assume the highest office in the land should be, not about how to completely screw over the Labour Party...
    Wonder if she could get the snap GE through the house with the 2/3rds majority - Tories unanimous, SNP probably in favour, Labour not - not sure about Lib Dems or various NI parties, or PC.
    Why would the SNP be in favour, they have nothing to gain.
    They may want to see how a May government deals with the fallout of Brexit.
    Because they have a chance to get rid of a Tory government.
    Why would they care about that? Their hope is to get rid of the uk, that doesn't require getting rid of a tory government.
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    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    We've been waiting for weeks for someone to step up and challenge Jeremy Corbyn, and when they finally do, it's a complete sideshow. Brilliant stuff, this!
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    Entirely predictable that there will be nobody around from Leave to be held accountable for their campaign and its consequences.

    This is the real downside with a referendum, Boris, Farage, Gove, now Leadsom have all washed their hands of implementing Brexit. It's a bloody disgrace that people who never wanted us to leave the EU are now left having to make the best of it as all the Leavers walk away. It really makes me angry but, as I said, entirely predictable from Leave.

    I suspect they will now go back to carping on the sidelines again and blame any problems on the poor sods landed with implementing it. Not on ounce of political guts or integrity between the lot of them..
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,602

    AndyJS said:

    "@LabourEoin
    Theresa May's speech & now ascent to PM are great news for Jeremy Corbyn. Shifts the entire UK political trajectory significantly leftwards."
    twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/752463990958202880

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Leadson got a much greater percentage of CON MPs backing her than Corbyn has ever had from LAB MPs.
    "Nevertheless, this is less than 25% of the parliamentary party and after careful consideration I do not believe this is sufficient support to lead a strong and stable government should I win the leadership election."

    If only Corbyn had said that.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,311
    Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

    My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

    I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    '' If she plots a more radical path, then she may be another Thatcher. ''

    Looking at her track record, I am not optimistic.

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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.

    It's a no brainer isn't it? I agree Scotland is an issue, but Scotland is going to be an issue anyway whatever happens. Great chance to knock Labour out for the next 10 years at least.
    I suspect May is probably thinking more about what is in the interests of the nation at the moment, as anyone about to assume the highest office in the land should be, not about how to completely screw over the Labour Party...
    Wonder if she could get the snap GE through the house with the 2/3rds majority - Tories unanimous, SNP probably in favour, Labour not - not sure about Lib Dems or various NI parties, or PC.
    Why would the SNP be in favour, they have nothing to gain.
    They may want to see how a May government deals with the fallout of Brexit.
    Because they have a chance to get rid of a Tory government.
    I'm not convinced.
    The SNP are smart operators. They will see that Theresa wants to capitalise on her honeymoon period and Labour's woes. The SNP currently have 56 of the 59 MPs in Scotland, they have little to gain and a lot to lose.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Is Theresa May now the leader of the Conservative Party?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    GIN1138 said:

    taffys said:

    ''Indeed. Disaster awaits the Tories I think. ''

    The country wants change.

    The tories gave them fudger May.

    They will not be forgiven.

    We'll see what she does but if Theresa thinks she can get away with not implementing Brexit the 17m who voted LEAVE will have no other choice than to take the UKIP route in 2020.
    Which Is why she would never risk that even if she wanted to. With no contest it may be even harder to get a sort of Brexit lite option, as her feet will be held to the fire and she has no proven member backer.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,730
    DavidL said:

    Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

    My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

    I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

    You voted Leave. What did you think would happen to Cameron and Osborne and the more rational form of politics?
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733
    OllyT said:

    Entirely predictable that there will be nobody around from Leave to be held accountable for their campaign and its consequences.

    This is the real downside with a referendum, Boris, Farage, Gove, now Leadsom have all washed their hands of implementing Brexit. It's a bloody disgrace that people who never wanted us to leave the EU are now left having to make the best of it as all the Leavers walk away. It really makes me angry but, as I said, entirely predictable from Leave.

    I suspect they will now go back to carping on the sidelines again and blame any problems on the poor sods landed with implementing it. Not on ounce of political guts or integrity between the lot of them..

    Somewhat scarily, the most senior Leaver left standing is Chris Grayling... (May's campaign manager - and clearly likely to get a promotion)
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    OllyT said:

    Entirely predictable that there will be nobody around from Leave to be held accountable for their campaign and its consequences.
    This is the real downside with a referendum, Boris, Farage, Gove, now Leadsom have all washed their hands of implementing Brexit. It's a bloody disgrace that people who never wanted us to leave the EU are now left having to make the best of it as all the Leavers walk away. It really makes me angry but, as I said, entirely predictable from Leave.
    I suspect they will now go back to carping on the sidelines again and blame any problems on the poor sods landed with implementing it. Not on ounce of political guts or integrity between the lot of them..

    You seem to be overlooking Cameron and Osborne, who set the whole nonsense up in the first place with no regard for the consequences, and are now calmly walking away from the disaster, just like the rest of the top Tories.
This discussion has been closed.