Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full membership of the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
Richard, I think our respective position on this topic is probably very close, if not the same. Given the Brexit vote, I would like a solution which is as close as we can be to what we have now except being members of the EU.
The referendum only gave one verdict: This country should leave the EU.
No other question was asked. By implication, Parliament was given the authority to sort out the details.
If we had [almost] unfettered access to the Single Market and the best FoM policy we could get, about 60/70% of the country would go with it. Remember 48% voted for the status quo.
The Brexit vote will still be honoured. We cannot go on about what each voter who voted Leave were thinking about. Virtually, every one had a different idea.
Personally I would want to see full control of the laws in the UK being set by the UK. In addition I would want the ability to accept or deny any person wishing to come to this country.
"Theresa May has benefited from the Tories’ hunger for power May’s speech showed Labour now faces a formidable opponent who has already placed several tanks on their lawn. Meanwhile, Labour is fighting itself Jonathan Freedland"
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full membership of the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
Richard, I think our respective position on this topic is probably very close, if not the same. Given the Brexit vote, I would like a solution which is as close as we can be to what we have now except being members of the EU.
The referendum only gave one verdict: This country should leave the EU.
No other question was asked. By implication, Parliament was given the authority to sort out the details.
If we had [almost] unfettered access to the Single Market and the best FoM policy we could get, about 60/70% of the country would go with it. Remember 48% voted for the status quo.
The Brexit vote will still be honoured. We cannot go on about what each voter who voted Leave were thinking about. Virtually, every one had a different idea.
Personally I would want to see full control of the laws in the UK being set by the UK. In addition I would want the ability to accept or deny any person wishing to come to this country.
Wouldn't that require withdrawing from several international treaties, including the UN?
And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?
Quite bad in the short-term because of the effect on the City, although a quick deal along those lines would be better than an EEA deal after an extended negotiation.
In the long-term, hard to say. The Brexiteers told us that we'd be free to take advantages of trade with other countries in a way in which we couldn't as members of the EU. That always seemed to me to be an argument which was generated mainly by wishful thinking, but perhaps it can be made to work.
I don't how many took into account the pound's depreciation of 10% since Brexit. The pound had already fallen about 10% since November.
£1 = € 1.43 [ Nov ]. Today. £1 = € 1.17. Ouch ! Good for exporters if we know our markets [ in the short term it will still be the EU ]. In the long run, it will help exports.
But, of course, it comes with a catch. Big increases in import costs including food items. House prices and rents will collapse. So good and bad.
I get wee Timmy Farron calling for an election, he has nothing whatsoever to lose, but Labour? Is the reckoning that Corbyn wins the leadership contest, and a general election gets rid of him? Corbyn will not resign even if Labour loses the next election. They are stuck with him.
Sky saying Her Majesty is due in London on Thursday. Probably going to happen then.
Thursday would appear fitting. No unseemly rush. Cameron does a valedictory PMQ's, May has a few days to decide on a cabinet and the test match at Lords begins.
Political history and leather on willow in one day. Splendid ..
Amir coming into bowl.
Having the noted boxer Amir Khan coming into bowl for England would be novel ..
Sadly I shall not be there. Mrs JackW travel restrictions apply. Bloody relatives snaffled my tickets !!
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full membership of the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
Richard, I think our respective position on this topic is probably very close, if not the same. Given the Brexit vote, I would like a solution which is as close as we can be to what we have now except being members of the EU.
The referendum only gave one verdict: This country should leave the EU.
No other question was asked. By implication, Parliament was given the authority to sort out the details.
If we had [almost] unfettered access to the Single Market and the best FoM policy we could get, about 60/70% of the country would go with it. Remember 48% voted for the status quo.
The Brexit vote will still be honoured. We cannot go on about what each voter who voted Leave were thinking about. Virtually, every one had a different idea.
Personally I would want to see full control of the laws in the UK being set by the UK. In addition I would want the ability to accept or deny any person wishing to come to this country.
I get wee Timmy Farron calling for an election, he has nothing whatsoever to lose, but Labour? Is the reckoning that Corbyn wins the leadership contest, and a general election gets rid of him? Corbyn will not resign even if Labour loses the next election. They are stuck with him.
Farron has got something to lose - the final 8 seats!
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full access to the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?
Serious because anything other than vanilla EEA is going to take a long time to negotiate. Maybe ten years. In the meantime we are either in minimal WTO or languishing in an EU exit limbo dependent on the goodwill of EU partners who don't owe us any.
I think Germany will like to sell cars to us and not do anything that might trigger the collapse of Deutsche Bank... As such nothing much has changed is a happy medium term position for everyone....
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 23s23 seconds ago Politics is a cruel business... Team Cameron pleading with Team May for him to be allowed to do a last PMQs.
I get wee Timmy Farron calling for an election, he has nothing whatsoever to lose, but Labour? Is the reckoning that Corbyn wins the leadership contest, and a general election gets rid of him? Corbyn will not resign even if Labour loses the next election. They are stuck with him.
Farron has got something to lose - the final 8 seats!
I suspect there is a large element of calling for something they know wont happen. Virtue signalling I guess.
Sorry, Plato, you'll have to take your hat out the ring... ;-)
Glad to see some of your sangfroid has returned...
You and I have been in a similar place. Both worked hard to get a Tory party elected that had promised a Referendum. Both hoped that Dave would deliver on his promise to materially renegotiate our position within the EU. Both would probably have voted Remain if he had. But both of us got pissed off with the overselling of the resulting "deal", insulting our intelligence at its supposed wonderfulness - then got incensed by his Project Fear and "Little Englander" stuff. Both of us voted Leave.
Both hoped to have a serious Leaver on the Conservative members ballot. But then Gove started playing with hand grenades. He took it upon himself to decide who was a worthy candidate, usurping the role of the members. For whatever reason, Boris then stood aside. (The biographies covering this period are going to be fascinating...)
I don't think you would have voted for Boris, even if he had carried the Leave banner into the final two. But when he wasn't there, you invested your hope in Leadsom. That is where we parted company. Just never saw her as Prime Ministerial. With a few more years in Government, she might have grown into being a proper challenger. But one decent showing in the TV debate was nowhere near enough. A Prime Minister can't just open mouth before engaging brain. Failing to understand in the moment how her comments might be interpreted was a one strike and your out moment. Reluctantly, I would have voted for May - though the temptation to spoil my ballot would have been high.
So now we have May. She has a tricky high-wire act to perform. I hope she manages it. But I, at least, will still be on the inside of the party - watching, judging.... If she isn't up to snuff, then it will be down to folks like me to put the spine into our MPs to act. Can't do that from UKIP.
I wanted Gove for all his faults. When he nuked himself, it was a choice between neither for me. I wanted to see what they'd to offer/similar scrutiny of positions et al.
I seriously considered abstaining or spoiling my ballot. How ironic is that.
Having listened to May's EdM Meets Ted Heath speech - I can't pretend to support her. It's The All The Same Party. Been there, done that and can't kid myself that I'll get over it.
The Tories still got another £25 Good luck to you and when I can, I'll cheer you on - I hope your efforts get results.
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full membership of the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
Richard, I think our respective position on this topic is probably very close, if not the same. Given the Brexit vote, I would like a solution which is as close as we can be to what we have now except being members of the EU.
The referendum only gave one verdict: This country should leave the EU.
No other question was asked. By implication, Parliament was given the authority to sort out the details.
If we had [almost] unfettered access to the Single Market and the best FoM policy we could get, about 60/70% of the country would go with it. Remember 48% voted for the status quo.
The Brexit vote will still be honoured. We cannot go on about what each voter who voted Leave were thinking about. Virtually, every one had a different idea.
We need a May -ism to cover her political followers and style, we've already got Blairites, Corbynistas, Cameroonians. Do we go with Mayflies or Mayflowers?
I get wee Timmy Farron calling for an election, he has nothing whatsoever to lose, but Labour? Is the reckoning that Corbyn wins the leadership contest, and a general election gets rid of him? Corbyn will not resign even if Labour loses the next election. They are stuck with him.
Farron has got something to lose - the final 8 seats!
I suspect there is a large element of calling for something they know wont happen. Virtue signalling I guess.
@Pong reckons it is a decent chance, and he's a man who knows the odds. I doubt the 8 Lib Dem votes in the house will swing the vote if there is one either way, but it's not empty virtue signalling.
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full access to the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?
Serious because anything other than vanilla EEA is going to take a long time to negotiate. Maybe ten years. In the meantime we are either in minimal WTO or languishing in an EU exit limbo dependent on the goodwill of EU partners who don't owe us any.
This is just more scaremongering. One of the reasons trade deals with non EU countries take such a long time is because of the issues of the technicalities of standardisation. In this case that is not an issue. There will be very few technical issues and almost everything will be political.
Leading eurosceptics since their referendum victory:
Leadsom – withdrawn Boris – retreated Gove – humiliated Farage – resigned Corbyn – mutinied Fox – beaten
To twist an old saying, if that's what victory looks like, I sure as hell wouldn't wish defeat on them.
Hater of democracy?
Eh?
You seem to be celebrating the "demise" of these people. Farage has seen a lifetimes work pay off against the odds, while Corbyn is successfully dismantling the centrist Party Labour have become over the last two decades, in the face of opposition from people whose support he never had when he won a landslide victory.
As for the Tory Brexit crew, they have been outwitted by a group of MP's who are diametrically at odds with both their membership and the majority of their voters
Elites pulling together to obstruct the will of the masses isn't something I would celebrate.
I seriously considered abstaining or spoiling my ballot. How ironic is that.
Having listened to May's EdM Meets Ted Heath speech - I can't pretend to support her. It's The All The Same Party. Been there, done that and can't kid myself that I'll get over it.
The Tories still got another £25 Good luck to you and when I can, I'll cheer you on - I hope your efforts get results.
If a GE was held tomorrow - I'd vote Kipper.
Your recent political journey: from centre-left (Blair), to centre-right (Cameron) to nutty right (UKIP).
Leading eurosceptics since their referendum victory:
Leadsom – withdrawn Boris – retreated Gove – humiliated Farage – resigned Corbyn – mutinied Fox – beaten
To twist an old saying, if that's what victory looks like, I sure as hell wouldn't wish defeat on them.
Hater of democracy?
Eh?
You seem to be celebrating the "demise" of these people. Farage has seen a lifetimes work pay off against the odds, while Corbyn is successfully dismantling the centrist Party Labour have become over the last two decades, in the face of opposition from people whose support he never had when he won a landslide victory.
As for the Tory Brexit crew, they have been outwitted by a group of MP's who are diametrically at odds with both their membership and the majority of their voters
Elites pulling together to obstruct the will of the masses isn't something I would celebrate.
Leading eurosceptics since their referendum victory:
Leadsom – withdrawn Boris – retreated Gove – humiliated Farage – resigned Corbyn – mutinied Fox – beaten
To twist an old saying, if that's what victory looks like, I sure as hell wouldn't wish defeat on them.
Hater of democracy?
Eh?
You seem to be celebrating the "demise" of these people. Farage has seen a lifetimes work pay off against the odds, while Corbyn is successfully dismantling the centrist Party Labour have become over the last two decades, in the face of opposition from people whose support he never had when he won a landslide victory.
As for the Tory Brexit crew, they have been outwitted by a group of MP's who are diametrically at odds with both their membership and the majority of their voters
Elites pulling together to obstruct the will of the masses isn't something I would celebrate.
The centrists command the views of the vast majority of the country. What the party memberships' median view is is hardly relevant. Also, it may surprise you to hear I had no role in the Shambolic Six's departures from the stage. They brought that upon themselves.
We need a May -ism to cover her political followers and style, we've already got Blairites, Corbynistas, Cameroonians. Do we go with Mayflies or Mayflowers?
We need a May -ism to cover her political followers and style, we've already got Blairites, Corbynistas, Cameroonians. Do we go with Mayflies or Mayflowers?
We need a May -ism to cover her political followers and style, we've already got Blairites, Corbynistas, Cameroonians. Do we go with Mayflies or Mayflowers?
It was Blairites, CameROONS and Corbynistas.
I would go with Mayflowers. That's quite neat and original.
I wanted Gove for all his faults. When he nuked himself, it was a choice between neither for me. I wanted to see what they'd to offer/similar scrutiny of positions et al.
I seriously considered abstaining or spoiling my ballot. How ironic is that.
Having listened to May's EdM Meets Ted Heath speech - I can't pretend to support her. It's The All The Same Party. Been there, done that and can't kid myself that I'll get over it.
The Tories still got another £25 Good luck to you and when I can, I'll cheer you on - I hope your efforts get results.
If a GE was held tomorrow - I'd vote Kipper.
I have to say your strop is completely baffling. Just over a year ago you were helping Caroline Ansell dislodge the Yellow Peril in Eastbourne, helping to get Cameron re-elected and, even better, working towards a majority Conservative government. An important part of the Conservative platform was the referendum. Despite the naysaying of the Kippers, that referendum was duly and promptly delivered. It went the way you wanted. The party is now uniting around an experienced candidate who is going to implement that decision, and who is slightly to the right of Cameron, and yet you're in a strop and leaning Kipperwards. It does seem very odd, Miss Plato!
We need a May -ism to cover her political followers and style, we've already got Blairites, Corbynistas, Cameroonians. Do we go with Mayflies or Mayflowers?
It was Blairites, CameROONS and Corbynistas.
I would go with Mayflowers. That's quite neat and original.
We need a May -ism to cover her political followers and style, we've already got Blairites, Corbynistas, Cameroonians. Do we go with Mayflies or Mayflowers?
One other thing we do know about what kind of prime minister May will be: she won’t be hasty and hyperactive. She finds herself in this position by not doing things. We journalists puzzled over why she wasn’t running a leadership campaign before the referendum. She got on with her job. During the referendum campaign she said she wanted to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, and got on with her job. After the referendum campaign, while Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom destroyed themselves, she focused on the task at hand, setting out her programme for her leadership (not including withdrawing from the ECHR). If as prime minister she simply gets on with the job, she could be very popular indeed
Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
The mood music from Germany is somewhat negative. Merkel thinks the UK voted for Brexit because it doesn't like freedom of movement; she expects Article 50 to be triggered once the new PM is in place, but the UK will not get all the benefits of the EU in the new arrangement.
FWIW the Norwegian PM doubts EEA will be suitable for the UK.
I think they're right. I fear the likes of CR, Max, RCS etc are going to be very disappointed.
Mr Jessop, I would agree with the Norwegian bloke - the EEA is not right for the UK. The EEA is a deal between three of the four members of EFTA and the EU. The economic, political, diplomatic and military muscle of the EEA members is tiny compared to that of the UK and the deal they agreed to reflects this. Even the Swiss stayed out of it.
I would expect the UK to be able to negotiate a much better deal than even the Swiss got.
As for the "mood music" coming from Berlin and people pretending to know what Merkel thinks, well, that's just nonsense and in any event unlikely to have any impact in the negotiations. What we did see a week or so ago is the German Motor Manufacturers going public with their fear of losing free access to the UK market.
One final thought some people on here talk a lot about the financial passporting arrangements. Fair enough it is not an area that I know much about. However, someone on here (and I have forgotten who, but it was one of the grown ups) said a while back that the passporting was worth about 10bn a year. Serious money, but if that is correct then compared to the size of the economy, the City's total trade income and even government expenditure it is no more than a rounding error rounding. Something to be considered and hopefully kept but too trivial a figure to move one's negotiating position to keep.
I wanted Gove for all his faults. When he nuked himself, it was a choice between neither for me. I wanted to see what they'd to offer/similar scrutiny of positions et al.
I seriously considered abstaining or spoiling my ballot. How ironic is that.
Having listened to May's EdM Meets Ted Heath speech - I can't pretend to support her. It's The All The Same Party. Been there, done that and can't kid myself that I'll get over it.
The Tories still got another £25 Good luck to you and when I can, I'll cheer you on - I hope your efforts get results.
If a GE was held tomorrow - I'd vote Kipper.
I have to say your strop is completely baffling. Just over a year ago you were helping Caroline Ansell dislodge the Yellow Peril in Eastbourne, helping to get Cameron re-elected and, even better, working towards a majority Conservative government. An important part of the Conservative platform was the referendum. Despite the naysaying of the Kippers, that referendum was duly and promptly delivered. It went the way you wanted. The party is now uniting around an experienced candidate who is going to implement that decision, and who is slightly to the right of Cameron, and yet you're in a strop and leaning Kipperwards. It does seem very odd, Miss Plato!
Yep. The bit I really couldn't understand this morning as it was discussed on Today is how anyone could think that Corbyn needed to get nominations to stand. The post 2010 rules are very clear and there is little ambiguity in them
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 23s23 seconds ago Politics is a cruel business... Team Cameron pleading with Team May for him to be allowed to do a last PMQs.
Utter rubbish from Guido.
Cameron is there until he isn't and that is not determined by Team May but by the PM and the Queen.
The Prime Minister might recommend to the Queen to send for a Scottish peer with outstanding credentials not now going to the Lords test match on Thursday ..
@CouncilReporter: Iain Duncan Smith tells @BBCNewsnight some Tories must "examine their conscience about the way they have behaved" as Leadsom quits race
I seriously considered abstaining or spoiling my ballot. How ironic is that.
Having listened to May's EdM Meets Ted Heath speech - I can't pretend to support her. It's The All The Same Party. Been there, done that and can't kid myself that I'll get over it.
The Tories still got another £25 Good luck to you and when I can, I'll cheer you on - I hope your efforts get results.
If a GE was held tomorrow - I'd vote Kipper.
Your recent political journey: from centre-left (Blair), to centre-right (Cameron) to nutty right (UKIP).
I seriously considered abstaining or spoiling my ballot. How ironic is that.
Having listened to May's EdM Meets Ted Heath speech - I can't pretend to support her. It's The All The Same Party. Been there, done that and can't kid myself that I'll get over it.
The Tories still got another £25 Good luck to you and when I can, I'll cheer you on - I hope your efforts get results.
If a GE was held tomorrow - I'd vote Kipper.
Your recent political journey: from centre-left (Blair), to centre-right (Cameron) to nutty right (UKIP).
Sorry, Plato, you'll have to take your hat out the ring... ;-)
..........Reluctantly, I would have voted for May - though the temptation to spoil my ballot would have been high. So now we have May. She has a tricky high-wire act to perform. I hope she manages it. But I, at least, will still be on the inside of the party - watching, judging.... If she isn't up to snuff, then it will be down to folks like me to put the spine into our MPs to act. Can't do that from UKIP.
A majority of 12 and probably 150 LEAVE voting MPs. We will see in her cabinet choices whether she is selecting for talent or for their political leanings. just as Brown had every opportunity to work out how to run an effective Govt, so it is with Mrs May. Will she clean out the Osborneites?
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full membership of the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
Richard, I think our respective position on this topic is probably very close, if not the same. Given the Brexit vote, I would like a solution which is as close as we can be to what we have now except being members of the EU.
The referendum only gave one verdict: This country should leave the EU.
No other question was asked. By implication, Parliament was given the authority to sort out the details.
If we had [almost] unfettered access to the Single Market and the best FoM policy we could get, about 60/70% of the country would go with it. Remember 48% voted for the status quo.
The Brexit vote will still be honoured. We cannot go on about what each voter who voted Leave were thinking about. Virtually, every one had a different idea.
Personally I would want to see full control of the laws in the UK being set by the UK. In addition I would want the ability to accept or deny any person wishing to come to this country.
Wouldn't that require withdrawing from several international treaties, including the UN?
I seriously considered abstaining or spoiling my ballot. How ironic is that.
Having listened to May's EdM Meets Ted Heath speech - I can't pretend to support her. It's The All The Same Party. Been there, done that and can't kid myself that I'll get over it.
The Tories still got another £25 Good luck to you and when I can, I'll cheer you on - I hope your efforts get results.
If a GE was held tomorrow - I'd vote Kipper.
Your recent political journey: from centre-left (Blair), to centre-right (Cameron) to nutty right (UKIP).
Where next?
Something to the right of UKIP.
If the political spectrum is a circle rather than a straight line - a Corbynite
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full access to the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?
Serious because anything other than vanilla EEA is going to take a long time to negotiate. Maybe ten years. In the meantime we are either in minimal WTO or languishing in an EU exit limbo dependent on the goodwill of EU partners who don't owe us any.
I think Germany will like to sell cars to us and not do anything that might trigger the collapse of Deutsche Bank... As such nothing much has changed is a happy medium term position for everyone....
We're in a situation where we can't go back, nor can we move forward to a new arrangement without passing through a damaging and lengthy limbo first. The only sensible alternative is another existing arrangement, which is EEA. May, Merkel and others may realise this and try to make it work, at least in the interim. Brexit will be playing out for a long time to come.
@CouncilReporter: Iain Duncan Smith tells @BBCNewsnight some Tories must "examine their conscience about the way they have behaved" as Leadsom quits race
IDS’ trouble is he put all his egg in one basket case.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 23s23 seconds ago Politics is a cruel business... Team Cameron pleading with Team May for him to be allowed to do a last PMQs.
Utter rubbish from Guido.
Cameron is there until he isn't and that is not determined by Team May but by the PM and the Queen.
The Prime Minister might recommend to the Queen to send for a Scottish peer with outstanding credentials not now going to the Lords test match on Thursday ..
Cough ..
I heard, on the grapevine, that said peer was persona non grata with DC. Something to do with an European Arse malfunction, though that doesn't seem likely.
@CouncilReporter: Iain Duncan Smith tells @BBCNewsnight some Tories must "examine their conscience about the way they have behaved" as Leadsom quits race
IDS’ trouble is he put all his egg in one basket case.
And would be best advised to return to being a quiet man
I wanted Gove for all his faults. When he nuked himself, it was a choice between neither for me. I wanted to see what they'd to offer/similar scrutiny of positions et al.
I seriously considered abstaining or spoiling my ballot. How ironic is that.
Having listened to May's EdM Meets Ted Heath speech - I can't pretend to support her. It's The All The Same Party. Been there, done that and can't kid myself that I'll get over it.
The Tories still got another £25 Good luck to you and when I can, I'll cheer you on - I hope your efforts get results.
If a GE was held tomorrow - I'd vote Kipper.
I have to say your strop is completely baffling. Just over a year ago you were helping Caroline Ansell dislodge the Yellow Peril in Eastbourne, helping to get Cameron re-elected and, even better, working towards a majority Conservative government. An important part of the Conservative platform was the referendum. Despite the naysaying of the Kippers, that referendum was duly and promptly delivered. It went the way you wanted. The party is now uniting around an experienced candidate who is going to implement that decision, and who is slightly to the right of Cameron, and yet you're in a strop and leaning Kipperwards. It does seem very odd, Miss Plato!
Not at all. The Tory Remain campaign eroded 80% of my loyalty with insults such as Little Englander. I'm not alone in feeling this way. The final 20% expired today with no vote and closing ranks. I mentioned a few weeks ago that I'd never previously understood the All The Same Party mindset - and now did. I've simply taken the next step, despite wishing for the opposite.
There's nothing special about the Tories for me. So why stick around. Caroline is a charming lady - but that's the way the electoral cookie crumbles.
Leading eurosceptics since their referendum victory:
Leadsom – withdrawn Boris – retreated Gove – humiliated Farage – resigned Corbyn – mutinied Fox – beaten
To twist an old saying, if that's what victory looks like, I sure as hell wouldn't wish defeat on them.
Hater of democracy?
Eh?
You seem to be celebrating the "demise" of these people. Farage has seen a lifetimes work pay off against the odds, while Corbyn is successfully dismantling the centrist Party Labour have become over the last two decades, in the face of opposition from people whose support he never had when he won a landslide victory.
As for the Tory Brexit crew, they have been outwitted by a group of MP's who are diametrically at odds with both their membership and the majority of their voters
Elites pulling together to obstruct the will of the masses isn't something I would celebrate.
The centrists command the views of the vast majority of the country. What the party memberships' median view is is hardly relevant. Also, it may surprise you to hear I had no role in the Shambolic Six's departures from the stage. They brought that upon themselves.
"The centrists command the views of the vast majority of the country"
Do they? If the EU ref were a vote in Parliament, the centrists would have walked it. As it is, freed from the tribal nature of normal elections, a majority of voters explicitly voted against the centrist's view.
As for the "Shambolic Six", Farage quit having achieved all he had ever worked for, while Corbyn is still leader of the Labour Party, and has lit a fire under the cosy armchairs of the centrists.
Both would have bit your hand off 12 month sago to be where they are now.
The other four combined to help defeat the centrist view of EU membership.
But the elites are circling their wagons, while the useful idiots cheer them on.
I think you are now at peace with yourself. This is where you have always belonged.
But the kippers are splitters too aren't they - there's the headbanger lot to be led by Arron Banks as a tribute act to La Farage and the liberal free-market wing of Carswell and Hannan?
I note none of the other Labour runners are declaring before the NEC clears the situation up - that rather gives them an advantage I think over Eagle if Jezza is excluded (Hey Eaton might be right)
We need a May -ism to cover her political followers and style, we've already got Blairites, Corbynistas, Cameroonians. Do we go with Mayflies or Mayflowers?
It was Blairites, CameROONS and Corbynistas.
I would go with Mayflowers. That's quite neat and original.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 23s23 seconds ago Politics is a cruel business... Team Cameron pleading with Team May for him to be allowed to do a last PMQs.
...You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately. .......
I heard, on the grapevine, that said peer was persona non grata with DC. Something to do with an European Arse malfunction, though that doesn't seem likely.
Letwin should be locked in a cupboard. He's very nice but ought to be kept as far away from the exit negotiations as possible. Perhaps he should be Ambassador to the Moons of Jupiter.
Leading eurosceptics since their referendum victory:
Leadsom – withdrawn Boris – retreated Gove – humiliated Farage – resigned Corbyn – mutinied Fox – beaten
To twist an old saying, if that's what victory looks like, I sure as hell wouldn't wish defeat on them.
Hater of democracy?
Eh?
You seem to be celebrating the "demise" of these people. Farage has seen a lifetimes work pay off against the odds, while Corbyn is successfully dismantling the centrist Party Labour have become over the last two decades, in the face of opposition from people whose support he never had when he won a landslide victory.
As for the Tory Brexit crew, they have been outwitted by a group of MP's who are diametrically at odds with both their membership and the majority of their voters
Elites pulling together to obstruct the will of the masses isn't something I would celebrate.
Well said.
The will of the masses, in the UK at least, rarely involves following ideologues of the edge of a cliff as general election results prove.
We need a May -ism to cover her political followers and style, we've already got Blairites, Corbynistas, Cameroonians. Do we go with Mayflies or Mayflowers?
They will be Maymite - you either love them or hate them
I get wee Timmy Farron calling for an election, he has nothing whatsoever to lose, but Labour? Is the reckoning that Corbyn wins the leadership contest, and a general election gets rid of him? Corbyn will not resign even if Labour loses the next election. They are stuck with him.
Farron has got something to lose - the final 8 seats!
I suspect there is a large element of calling for something they know wont happen. Virtue signalling I guess.
@Pong reckons it is a decent chance, and he's a man who knows the odds. I doubt the 8 Lib Dem votes in the house will swing the vote if there is one either way, but it's not empty virtue signalling.
I know the odds, but I don't know the thinking inside MayHQ unfortunately!
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full access to the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?
Serious because anything other than vanilla EEA is going to take a long time to negotiate. Maybe ten years. In the meantime we are either in minimal WTO or languishing in an EU exit limbo dependent on the goodwill of EU partners who don't owe us any.
This is just more scaremongering. One of the reasons trade deals with non EU countries take such a long time is because of the issues of the technicalities of standardisation. In this case that is not an issue. There will be very few technical issues and almost everything will be political.
Exactly.
We will say: yes we accept all the EU technical standards now and in the future (when we will have little or no input into them), thanks very much.
And then we will walk away, our chests puffed out with pride at our newfound sovereignty.
Yes Richard. But I don't think you argued that May wouldn't want to achieve it, rather that the EU wouldn't want to allow or enable it? Unless you made both points?
I've argued that we can't take it for granted that the EU countries + EFTA countries + European Parliament will unanimously agree to EEA membership, but, more importantly, I don't see how the circle of a deal involving full freedom of movement can be reconciled with the referendum result, given that both Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigned on immigration as their principal argument. Since something has to give, I think it will be full access to the Single Market which gets abandoned. My expectation is that we'll end up with a deal where we have full tariff-free and hassle-free access to the Single Market for goods, but not for services (and in particular, we won't retain financial passporting).
And how serious do you see the consequences for the UK economy of such an outcome?
Serious because anything other than vanilla EEA is going to take a long time to negotiate. Maybe ten years. In the meantime we are either in minimal WTO or languishing in an EU exit limbo dependent on the goodwill of EU partners who don't owe us any.
I think Germany will like to sell cars to us and not do anything that might trigger the collapse of Deutsche Bank... As such nothing much has changed is a happy medium term position for everyone....
We're in a situation where we can't go back, nor can we move forward to a new arrangement without passing through a damaging and lengthy limbo first. The only sensible alternative is another existing arrangement, which is EEA. May, Merkel and others may realise this and try to make it work, at least in the interim. Brexit will be playing out for a long time to come.
Well of course it will play out for a long time to come. The full effects of exit will not be felt for ten years maybe more and by that time there will have been so many other events that sorting out what the effects of exit were will be a matter of historians not politicians.
If you are suggesting that actually leaving will take many years then I think you might have hit the "negotiating" stage in the six(?) stages of grief.
One other thing we do know about what kind of prime minister May will be: she won’t be hasty and hyperactive. She finds herself in this position by not doing things. We journalists puzzled over why she wasn’t running a leadership campaign before the referendum. She got on with her job. During the referendum campaign she said she wanted to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, and got on with her job. After the referendum campaign, while Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom destroyed themselves, she focused on the task at hand, setting out her programme for her leadership (not including withdrawing from the ECHR). If as prime minister she simply gets on with the job, she could be very popular indeed
She wanted to leae the ECHR as a sop to Leavers when she thought Remain would win. A few weeks later, she wanted to stay in the ECHR as a sop to Remainers when Leave did win. I like May, but if that is not politicking I do not know what is.
As I've said, I think most members are at a point where they'll look at leadership candidates' policies and make an assessment accordingly. Last year, it was felt that the ABC candidates didn't have many policies, though Yvette strengthened a bit towards the end.
We need a May -ism to cover her political followers and style, we've already got Blairites, Corbynistas, Cameroonians. Do we go with Mayflies or Mayflowers?
I would say that Andrea Leadsom made the right decision for all concerned. Her backers' stood behind her, look absolutely beyond fury. She is in for a very difficult time,but I hope the party and crowing media now back off.
I seriously considered abstaining or spoiling my ballot. How ironic is that.
Having listened to May's EdM Meets Ted Heath speech - I can't pretend to support her. It's The All The Same Party. Been there, done that and can't kid myself that I'll get over it.
The Tories still got another £25 Good luck to you and when I can, I'll cheer you on - I hope your efforts get results.
If a GE was held tomorrow - I'd vote Kipper.
Your recent political journey: from centre-left (Blair), to centre-right (Cameron) to nutty right (UKIP).
Where next?
Something to the right of UKIP.
The political journey of Winston McKenzie. I think he stood in London for the EDL?
Comments
May’s speech showed Labour now faces a formidable opponent who has already placed several tanks on their lawn. Meanwhile, Labour is fighting itself
Jonathan Freedland"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/11/theresa-may-tories-power-labour
£1 = € 1.43 [ Nov ]. Today. £1 = € 1.17. Ouch ! Good for exporters if we know our markets [ in the short term it will still be the EU ]. In the long run, it will help exports.
But, of course, it comes with a catch. Big increases in import costs including food items. House prices and rents will collapse. So good and bad.
What drama has occurred since 1pm? Has Eagle sufficient support to trigger a leadership election?
Sadly I shall not be there. Mrs JackW travel restrictions apply. Bloody relatives snaffled my tickets !!
Politics is a cruel business... Team Cameron pleading with Team May for him to be allowed to do a last PMQs.
I seriously considered abstaining or spoiling my ballot. How ironic is that.
Having listened to May's EdM Meets Ted Heath speech - I can't pretend to support her. It's The All The Same Party. Been there, done that and can't kid myself that I'll get over it.
The Tories still got another £25
If a GE was held tomorrow - I'd vote Kipper.
As for the Tory Brexit crew, they have been outwitted by a group of MP's who are diametrically at odds with both their membership and the majority of their voters
Elites pulling together to obstruct the will of the masses isn't something I would celebrate.
Where next?
https://twitter.com/harrydcarr/status/752500320522100736
Maydens.
It was Blairites, CameROONS and Corbynistas.
I would go with Mayflowers. That's quite neat and original.
CON: 38% (+1)
LAB: 30% (-)
UKIP: 15% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via ICM / 08 - 10 Jul)
Chgs. from 01-03/07.
May would be crazy not to have a snap election.
Your point is correct though. The party is splitting. As Southam constantly worries about: who gets the intellectual rights ?
I think it will be the Progressive Democrats with a built-in manifesto commitment to change the voting system and the House of Lords.
Maynchancers
One other thing we do know about what kind of prime minister May will be: she won’t be hasty and hyperactive. She finds herself in this position by not doing things. We journalists puzzled over why she wasn’t running a leadership campaign before the referendum. She got on with her job. During the referendum campaign she said she wanted to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, and got on with her job. After the referendum campaign, while Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom destroyed themselves, she focused on the task at hand, setting out her programme for her leadership (not including withdrawing from the ECHR). If as prime minister she simply gets on with the job, she could be very popular indeed
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-what-kind-of-prime-minister-policies-what-she-really-meant-a7130911.html
I would expect the UK to be able to negotiate a much better deal than even the Swiss got.
As for the "mood music" coming from Berlin and people pretending to know what Merkel thinks, well, that's just nonsense and in any event unlikely to have any impact in the negotiations. What we did see a week or so ago is the German Motor Manufacturers going public with their fear of losing free access to the UK market.
One final thought some people on here talk a lot about the financial passporting arrangements. Fair enough it is not an area that I know much about. However, someone on here (and I have forgotten who, but it was one of the grown ups) said a while back that the passporting was worth about 10bn a year. Serious money, but if that is correct then compared to the size of the economy, the City's total trade income and even government expenditure it is no more than a rounding error rounding. Something to be considered and hopefully kept but too trivial a figure to move one's negotiating position to keep.
Cameron is there until he isn't and that is not determined by Team May but by the PM and the Queen.
The Prime Minister might recommend to the Queen to send for a Scottish peer with outstanding credentials not now going to the Lords test match on Thursday ..
Cough ..
@CouncilReporter: Iain Duncan Smith tells @BBCNewsnight some Tories must "examine their conscience about the way they have behaved" as Leadsom quits race
We'll find out tomorrow.
So about that snap election Labour want...
I think Labour's position is the critical story right now.
May = PM
Hammond = Chancellor of Exchequer
Clarkson = Dept of Culture, Media & Sport
There's nothing special about the Tories for me. So why stick around. Caroline is a charming lady - but that's the way the electoral cookie crumbles.
Do they? If the EU ref were a vote in Parliament, the centrists would have walked it. As it is, freed from the tribal nature of normal elections, a majority of voters explicitly voted against the centrist's view.
As for the "Shambolic Six", Farage quit having achieved all he had ever worked for, while Corbyn is still leader of the Labour Party, and has lit a fire under the cosy armchairs of the centrists.
Both would have bit your hand off 12 month sago to be where they are now.
The other four combined to help defeat the centrist view of EU membership.
But the elites are circling their wagons, while the useful idiots cheer them on.
When will David Cameron be announcing his resignation honours list ?
Hard left Labour needs to be utterly eviscerated; Corbyn will then go, and the rebuilding can potentially commence.
Of course all this is simply fast forwarding from 2020, but it may mean that Labour could return to office in 2021 not 2025.
How about...
PM: May (Remain)
Chancellor: Javid (Remain)
Foreign: Hammond (Remain)
Home: Gove (Leave)
Justice: Raab (Leave)
Brexit: Letwin (Remain)
Defence: Fox (Leave)
Education: Crabb (Remain)
Work & Pensions: Patel (Leave)
International Development: Greening (Remain)
Transport: McLoughlin (Remain)
Commons Leader: Grayling (Leave)
Equalities: Morgan (Remain)
Business: Leadsom (Leave)
Culture: Johnson (Leave)
Northern Ireland: Clark (Remain)
Wales: Cairn (Remain)
Scotland: Mundell (Remain)
Energy: Rudd (Remain)
Bunnco. your Man on the Spot
Which reminds me, a bitter lefty speaks, from a few days ago.
@BrianReade: How apt that if you cross the last female Tory PM with the probable next one you get a thieving prostitute called Maggie May?
Con 42% Lab 26% UKIP 18% Lib-Dem 6% Green 2%
Mr. Joel, welcome to pb.com.
Letwin should be locked in a cupboard. He's very nice but ought to be kept as far away from the exit negotiations as possible. Perhaps he should be Ambassador to the Moons of Jupiter.
Maypoles
Amayzingers
Amayzonians
We will say: yes we accept all the EU technical standards now and in the future (when we will have little or no input into them), thanks very much.
And then we will walk away, our chests puffed out with pride at our newfound sovereignty.
If you are suggesting that actually leaving will take many years then I think you might have hit the "negotiating" stage in the six(?) stages of grief.
Here's Angela Eagle's statement in full:
http://angela4labourleader.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Real-Leadership-Statement-from-Angela-Eagle.pdf
It seems, again, to be almost entirely devoid of policy. Perhaps the ideas will come at a later stage. But she won't win on this basis.
Might be useful to compare then and now?
Ideally I'm hoping there's an article from a Labour MP close to Gordon Brown