politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leadsom quits the race. Big question now is whether May is

Wanderer said:

Labour demanding a GE cuts the FTPA knot?

If noone is discussing their leadership launch today, no one will be listening to their demands.

Something must be up, the Sky News helicopter is circling over Westminster.

Scott_P said:

@JoeMurphyLondon: A minister tells me the Queen returns to London tomorrow. So it sounds like Mrs May will go to the Palace and become Prime Minister by tea.

Presumably the Queen will come down the East coast, taking in Warrington and then crossing over to Leicester to pass through the A 50.

May - PM
Hammond - Chancellor
Grayling - Home
Osborn - Foreign
Davis - Head of Brexit
Gove - Justice
Javid - Education
Leadsom - Business
Fox - Health
Johnson - Defence
Rudd - Culture

would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.

Looks like the Queen is not in Scotland

13 July 2016
Her Majesty The Queen

accompanied by The Duke of Edinburgh, will visit East Anglian Air Ambulance at Cambridge Airport to officially open the Egerton-Smith Centre, Newmarket Road, Cambridge.

14 July 2016
Her Majesty The Queen, The Duke of Edinburgh

Buckingham Palace
will give a Reception for winners of The Queen's Award for Enterprise, at Buckingham Palace.

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Just looking at a photo of Theresa May standing in front of a banner "A country that works for everyone, not just a privileged few" - a damning statement that the Government of which she has been at the very highest level for the past six years has failed

A damning statement of Osborne.

DaemonBarber said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/752480992041000960

That is devastatingly bad.

Lol Alan Duncan is short, just about the same height as Justine.

I'd call Labour's bluff, they are calling for an election so put a motion before the house to hold one. See how soon they chicken out!

pbr2013 said:

Scott_P said:

oxfordsimon said:

The Eagle campaign graphics are ludicrous. 2 weeks of planning and that was the best they could come up with. A pink background with a strange version of the Union Flag and then her signature in white over the top. Does not project powerful leader...

https://twitter.com/petermannionmp/status/752477331328012288

Has an obvious, powerful appeal to the quiet bat people.

Seems a shame to waste it.

"Real Leadership" - a new range of perfume from Argelu, the House of Leadsom...

Pulpstar said:

Wanderer said:

Labour demanding a GE cuts the FTPA knot?

God only knows why Labour want a GE - but hey ho.

It's a bit like Boris wanting to 'Leave', they have to say it but don't really want it.

ToryJim said:

I'd call Labour's bluff, they are calling for an election so put a motion before the house to hold one. See how soon they chicken out!

If May wants an election, she just has to put it to the house.

"Dear Public. I trust you but those on the other side do not. They stand in the way of democracy etc. etc. etc."

ToryJim said:

Lennon said:

ToryJim said:

All this the Queen is not in London, if she is at Windsor then both Cam and May can go to her!

I believe that she is at Balmoral...

No she doesn't go to Balmoral until the end of July. She may still be at Holyroodhouse

It would be entertaining to see Cam and May having to go to the 'other' palace (May in tartan suit no doubt), attended by mystified crowds of foreign tourists laden with all their juicy exchange rate shopping.

MarqueeMark said:

FF43 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FF43 said:

If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.

Agreed. Gove is too abrasive, and Boris is Boris. Actually, temperamentally Andrea Leadsom would be a better bet, although her complete lack of experience is a problem.

In her shoes, I'd put Boris in a role as the figurehead in a new department dedicated to securing trade deals. Something where he's out of the country a lot, and where his penchant for getting himself publicity would actually be beneficial.

I can see Johnson as Foreign Sec and on the Brexit Committee along with May, the Home Sec and the person doing the actual work on Brexit. Gove maybe Home Sec. He needs to be in a department where he won't cause too much damage. Johnson is lazy and is less of a risk. Whether May wants to give Leavers two of the top cabinet posts depends on how much she thinks she needs to keep them and their faction on board, compared with rewarding her followers.

Gove as Home Secretary could set about doing those things that he would say were his new boss's failings in her six years in the job. His first negotiation will be asking her for an extra billion quid for an effective Border Patrol....

Hmm. Maybe not Home Sec. Gove is a godawful administrator. Is there a high profile department where he can do all the things that make the Tory grassroots warm and fuzzy, without irreparably blowing up what that Department exists to do?

ToryJim said:

Lennon said:

ToryJim said:

All this the Queen is not in London, if she is at Windsor then both Cam and May can go to her!

I believe that she is at Balmoral...

No she doesn't go to Balmoral until the end of July. She may still be at Holyroodhouse

Next official engagement is on Wednesday in Cambridge and is in the office on Thursday:

13 July 2016
Her Majesty The Queen accompanied by The Duke of Edinburgh, will visit East Anglian Air Ambulance at Cambridge Airport to officially open the Egerton-Smith Centre, Newmarket Road, Cambridge.

14 July 2016
Her Majesty The Queen, The Duke of Edinburgh will give a Reception for winners of The Queen's Award for Enterprise, at Buckingham Palace.

https://www.royal.uk/future-engagements

So presumably she's heading south soon.....

FF43 said:

MarqueeMark said:

FF43 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FF43 said:

If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.

Agreed. Gove is too abrasive, and Boris is Boris. Actually, temperamentally Andrea Leadsom would be a better bet, although her complete lack of experience is a problem.

In her shoes, I'd put Boris in a role as the figurehead in a new department dedicated to securing trade deals. Something where he's out of the country a lot, and where his penchant for getting himself publicity would actually be beneficial.

I can see Johnson as Foreign Sec and on the Brexit Committee along with May, the Home Sec and the person doing the actual work on Brexit. Gove maybe Home Sec. He needs to be in a department where he won't cause too much damage. Johnson is lazy and is less of a risk. Whether May wants to give Leavers two of the top cabinet posts depends on how much she thinks she needs to keep them and their faction on board, compared with rewarding her followers.

Gove as Home Secretary could set about doing those things that he would say were his new boss's failings in her six years in the job. His first negotiation will be asking her for an extra billion quid for an effective Border Patrol....

Hmm. Maybe not Home Sec. Gove is a godawful administrator. Is there a high profile department where he can do all the things that make the Tory grassroots warm and fuzzy, without irreparably blowing up what that Department exists to do?

Easy. He stays at Justice where he's doing some good work.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Brom said:

May - PM
Hammond - Chancellor
Grayling - Home
Osborn - Foreign
Davis - Head of Brexit
Gove - Justice
Javid - Education
Leadsom - Business
Fox - Health
Johnson - Defence
Rudd - Culture

would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.

All three out would look too much like a shift to the right.

Johnson at defence? Oh god no. Should swap with Rudd.

JohnO said:

FF43 said:

MarqueeMark said:

FF43 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FF43 said:

If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.

Agreed. Gove is too abrasive, and Boris is Boris. Actually, temperamentally Andrea Leadsom would be a better bet, although her complete lack of experience is a problem.

In her shoes, I'd put Boris in a role as the figurehead in a new department dedicated to securing trade deals. Something where he's out of the country a lot, and where his penchant for getting himself publicity would actually be beneficial.

I can see Johnson as Foreign Sec and on the Brexit Committee along with May, the Home Sec and the person doing the actual work on Brexit. Gove maybe Home Sec. He needs to be in a department where he won't cause too much damage. Johnson is lazy and is less of a risk. Whether May wants to give Leavers two of the top cabinet posts depends on how much she thinks she needs to keep them and their faction on board, compared with rewarding her followers.

Gove as Home Secretary could set about doing those things that he would say were his new boss's failings in her six years in the job. His first negotiation will be asking her for an extra billion quid for an effective Border Patrol....

Hmm. Maybe not Home Sec. Gove is a godawful administrator. Is there a high profile department where he can do all the things that make the Tory grassroots warm and fuzzy, without irreparably blowing up what that Department exists to do?

Easy. He stays at Justice where he's doing some good work.

Deckchairs.

notme said:

edmundintokyo said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.

I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:

Q: Would you stay in the single market?

May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?page=with:block-578377d1e4b0eebd31587035#liveblog-navigation

11.27

Demand three contradictory things, send a delegation of leavers to negotiate it, referendum on the result, after that goes down she has some options.

We just need a fudge, nothing more. We have ridiculous pull factors for eastern european migrants some of which are in our own hands. Add qualifying periods for access to welfare for everyone, EU have no problem with that.

Yep, the solution is easy, the problem was a lack of a political will and politically acceptable means. Given the Brexit vote now is the perfect time to get those things in place as the pain that previously existed isn't there at the moment....

JackW said:

JohnO said:

Chris Grayling is the man of the moment. Either he becomes Chancellor, or in my view marginally more likely, he takes on the Brexit role. Are there odds on that?

Grayling to Home Secretary with Hammond and Osborne swapping roles would be my option for stability.

Certainly very possible and not unattractive....I wonder what Grayling himself would like.

I guess the most likely scenario is for Cameron to go to the Palace after doing PMQs for a final time on Wednesday afternoon. Blair did the same thing IIRC.

Brom said:

Bob__Sykes said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.

As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?

This is the way I'm looking at it. Winning the vote and getting a version of Brexit and not being full EU members will at least be a consolation, though I think only the soft leavers like my parents will be truly happy with what May delivers.

We can't have a divided nation split basically 50/50 down the middle, we need a PM who can try to find an acceptable middle ground option on Brexit. Theresa won't satisfy everyone, there will always be those wedded to 100% full-on EU integration and those 100% full-on nothing at all to do with the EU isolationists. But most of us, whichever way we voted on the 23rd, want to find an acceptable happy medium. I think "a soft version of Brexit" will satisfy possibly 75% of the electorate, which is good enough. I think May, supported by the talent around her, can achieve it.

Brandon Lewis to BIS
#Just sayin

Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

PlatoSaid said:

Bob__Sykes said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.

As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?

A pro-Remain PM given the job as a result of enormous media pressure exerted on her rival.

You mean, 'examining her CV' and 'publishing what she said'?

Brom said:

May - PM
Hammond - Chancellor
Grayling - Home
Osborn - Foreign
Davis - Head of Brexit
Gove - Justice
Javid - Education
Leadsom - Business
Fox - Health
Johnson - Defence
Rudd - Culture

would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.

I think Letwin is presently head of Brexit though Davis may join him

RodCrosby said:

oxfordsimon said:

DaemonBarber said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/752480992041000960

That is devastatingly bad.

She's gone from being the lesser-spotted eagle to now the solitary eagle...

Soon to be the booted eagle?

She is pretty much already a dead parrot

Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?

Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?

No-one can deny that these Leavers aren't half adept at leaving!

Bob__Sykes said:

Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?

Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?

It's grandstanding, if there was a motion to hold an election they wouldn't vote for it.

rottenborough said:

....Plus I win big on May. Held the bet for 3 years. Sometimes it pays to play it long.

Single To Win
Theresa May @ 33/1
Next Prime Minister post David Cameron

Single To Win
Theresa May @ 18/1
Next Conservative Leader

Single To Win
Theresa May @ 12/1
Next Conservative Leader

Paristonda said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

NickPalmer said:

Dadge said:

I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.

If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.

No evidence whatsoever for the 15% point. Labour shouldn't touch the Greens with a ten foot pole.

I agree. I've had similar suggestions from the same sort of person on the right, advocating Con-UKIP deals. Both big parties would be nuts to go down that road.

It all sounds very clever when sat in committee rooms but the public tend to resent being told what to do in that way and can be disinclined to play ball.

Tactical voting worked in 1997, but it wasn't explicitly endorsed by the parties. I think you're right that being seen to tell voters what do can backfire, but getting some sort of informal arrangements in certain seats could help massively.

1. Tactical voting worked in 1997 because (a) the two parties were close together in policy terms and (b) because both were acceptable anti-Tory vehicles, which was the dominant political mood at the time. That's far from the case now.

2. Going down the tactical voting route was a strategic disaster for the Lib Dems in the longer term because it hard-wired Labour voters into their voting coalition and meant that they'd ultimately be likely to have to choose between propping up a failing and discredited Labour government ,and so being tainted by association, or breaking faith with those tactical voters and backing the Tories in government. Both routes were likely to end up in a horrible car-crash of an election, though playing their hand badly while in government made it even worse.

Fantastic news re Leadsom quitting. It's hilarious that even Andrea Leadsom can see that having less than 25% of your parliamentary party supporting you is a recipe for disaster, but Corbyn cannot. And of course Paul Mason would say what's he's just said. Mason should really be careful what he wishes for. A GE is going to show him and other militant leftists exactly how much support their politics has in this country, and I don't think they'll take it well. I bet Mason wasn't demanding a new GE when Gordon Brown became PM nearly ten years ago.

John_M said:

Pulpstar said:

John_M said:

Brom said:

May - PM
Hammond - Chancellor
Grayling - Home
Osborn - Foreign
Davis - Head of Brexit
Gove - Justice
Javid - Education
Leadsom - Business
Fox - Health
Johnson - Defence
Rudd - Culture

would be my guess. Though anything that keeps Rudd, Soubry and Morgan out of the cabinet would be a success in my eyes. I'm hoping in particularly Soubry and Wollaston have ruined their future prospects over the past weeks.

I'd be very unhappy to see Fallon moved from Defence, particularly if replaced by Johnson. He should replace Rudd @ DCMS, if anything at all.

Boris Johnson in charge of defence ?!

Are you mad ?

Did you actually read what I wrote, or were you replying to Brom's post? I don't think Boris is really ministerial material. Can you imagine him doing his red boxes? Party Chairman at best. Or possibly Minister for Cheering People Up.

I'd be surprised if he didn't get a ministerial role. He's a big player, had success in London and will be a useful asset to May if she keeps him onside. Remember Boris can reach voters that other Tory MPs cannot and to keep friends close to you and enemies closer may apply to Bozza if she wishes to stave off a future coup.

But yes maybe he's more likely to get culture than defence!

John_M said:

TGOHF said:

What's the bigger job in this Parly ?

Minister for Brexit or CoTE

CoTE surely. There just aren't that many Brexit permutations. We've a choice of a couple of umbrella treaties (EFTA/EEA), a completely bespoke agreement, or trading under WTO rules (with a couple of variants, e.g. unilateral zero import tariffs).

We don't have infinite room for maneuver. The only substantive question is financial passporting, yes or no?

Plus, and here is the gift that will keep on giving for whoever is given the role, years and years of ditchwater dull domestic law re-writing as we formulate our independent way.

Setting up of the new British Board of Protected Food Labelling anyone? (x1000)

In the longer run, Minister for Brexit is going to be good job for someone who you don't like quite well enough to give the Northern Ireland role.

Bob__Sykes said:

Brom said:

Bob__Sykes said:

PlatoSaid said:

DavidL said:

Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.

My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.

I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.

I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.

As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?

This is the way I'm looking at it. Winning the vote and getting a version of Brexit and not being full EU members will at least be a consolation, though I think only the soft leavers like my parents will be truly happy with what May delivers.

We can't have a divided nation split basically 50/50 down the middle, we need a PM who can try to find an acceptable middle ground option on Brexit. Theresa won't satisfy everyone, there will always be those wedded to 100% full-on EU integration and those 100% full-on nothing at all to do with the EU isolationists. But most of us, whichever way we voted on the 23rd, want to find an acceptable happy medium. I think "a soft version of Brexit" will satisfy possibly 75% of the electorate, which is good enough. I think May, supported by the talent around her, can achieve it.

May's problem is that there are enough Tory MPs who are not in the happy medium camp to deny her a majority in the Commons. That's why the case for an early GE looks so compelling.

Leadsom = Realist

Corbyn = Fantascist

John_M said:

https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/752480844665806848

Give it 72 hours and it might be accurate....

Scott_P said:

@charlywoodsy: Thing is, the Tories have now had their squabble, thrown a few punches and shook hands before Labour have even managed to tie their laces

It's worse than that. They are still fitting the horseshoes into the gloves....

Bob__Sykes said:

Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?

Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?

I think that they were urging a GE right from Cameron's resignation speech.

I note Plato has donated to UKIP whilst still a member of the Conservative Party. Are these two positions compatible within the Tory rules ....

Just aski.. stirring ..

logical_song said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?

Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?

I think that they were urging a GE right from Cameron's resignation speech.

And yet they were the party who pushed for the fixed term parliaments act.

John_M said:

TGOHF said:

What's the bigger job in this Parly ?

Minister for Brexit or CoTE

CoTE surely. There just aren't that many Brexit permutations. We've a choice of a couple of umbrella treaties (EFTA/EEA), a completely bespoke agreement, or trading under WTO rules (with a couple of variants, e.g. unilateral zero import tariffs).

We don't have infinite room for maneuver. The only substantive question is financial passporting, yes or no?

Brexit is a major duck lining up exercise. Negotiating with a relatively weak hand, making sure the widely disparate parties are on board and then managing the sequencing. Difficult job that I can see going to an ambitious but competent younger politician. If that person pulls it off without an major upset, he/she will be in a very strong position for following on from May.

Scott_P said:

@charlywoodsy: Thing is, the Tories have now had their squabble, thrown a few punches and shook hands before Labour have even managed to tie their laces

Or work out who should be in the ring.

ToryJim said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Why, suddenly are Labour the LDs coming out urging a GE now there is "a coronation" or "a stitch-up" - the point about "the lack of mandate" would apply equally if 150k Tories determined the PM on 9th September wouldn't it? So why haven't they spent the past fortnight banging on about it?

Did they hope the Tories would shoot themselves in the foot, but are now terrified at the sight of the Tory Party coming together and unifying behind a popular, experienced and moderate leader in the national interest?

It's grandstanding, if there was a motion to hold an election they wouldn't vote for it.

I think the LibDems would.

AndyJS said:

rottenborough said:

....Plus I win big on May. Held the bet for 3 years. Sometimes it pays to play it long.

Congrats.

MontyHall said:

Well done, was May the only one you backed?

Err, no...