politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leadsom quits the race. Big question now is whether May is
Comments
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They stood and lost. How is that walking away?OllyT said:Entirely predictable that there will be nobody around from Leave to be held accountable for their campaign and its consequences.
This is the real downside with a referendum, Boris, Farage, Gove, now Leadsom have all washed their hands of implementing Brexit. It's a bloody disgrace that people who never wanted us to leave the EU are now left having to make the best of it as all the Leavers walk away. It really makes me angry but, as I said, entirely predictable from Leave.
I suspect they will now go back to carping on the sidelines again and blame any problems on the poor sods landed with implementing it. Not on ounce of political guts or integrity between the lot of them..0 -
The risk of an early election is that it becomes EU ref 2 with UKIp campaigning for full leave and LDs campaigning to stay, while the Tories offer a luke warm fudge in the middledavid_herdson said:
If there is an autumn election, the Tories will fight it on an explicitly pro-Brexit platform now. That particular UKIP fox will be shot.Essexit said:
That's one reason, but there is another. As has been pointed out, if she goes to a GE having not triggered Article 50 UKIP could do very well indeed. I'd expect Farage to cancel his resignation again.SouthamObserver said:The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.
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Fair enough. Let the chips fall where they may. Everything that follows on, including whatever happens with Brexit and whether Scotland remains in the Union is just the consequence of making that referendum choice. It will be what it will be. It is not the way I think but several well established countries have come into existence in that way. Ireland and Slovakia to name two.MaxPB said:
Because the future of this nation is far more important than whether Dave stays in as PM. I liked Dave as well, but leaving the EU is forever, Dave and George aren't.FF43 said:
Maybe so, but DavidL wants Cameron and Osborne, yet voted for an action that guaranteed their destruction along with the kind of politics they represent and which he approves of.PClipp said:
"Rational form of politics"' ??? Cameron and Osborne dominated the Remain campaign, crowding out all other voices and shades of opinion, and relied 100% on a campaign of fear.FF43 said:You voted Leave. What did you think would happen to Cameron and Osborne and the more rational form of politics?
I shall be very happy to see the back of the pair of them.0 -
Okay, LD target seats, pedant.kjohnw said:
what 30 LD seats? lolDadge said:I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
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First thing May should do in her honeymoon is get those bloody boundary changes through.... Article 50 can wait!tlg86 said:ToryJim said:Farron has called for an early General Election. Be careful what you wish for. Yazz had a great song but it might not be sage advice
Mind you it would be on the current boundaries.0 -
She won't want the economy to tank.Paristonda said:
She won't backtrack on Brexit. No reason to from her point of view - her voters and members favoured Leave, the country favoured Leave, most remainers accept the result anyway, the EU will want us out ASAP not changing our minds every couple months, and she herself was not exactly a europhile so she probably doesn't mind brexiting! However, I think a Brexit-lite becomes more likely now, as she won't have to make all sorts of red meat Brexit promises to beat Leadsom, there is no-one important left to hold her feet to the fire.kle4 said:
Which Is why she would never risk that even if she wanted to. With no contest it may be even harder to get a sort of Brexit lite option, as her feet will be held to the fire and she has no proven member backer.GIN1138 said:
We'll see what she does but if Theresa thinks she can get away with not implementing Brexit the 17m who voted LEAVE will have no other choice than to take the UKIP route in 2020.taffys said:''Indeed. Disaster awaits the Tories I think. ''
The country wants change.
The tories gave them fudger May.
They will not be forgiven.0 -
Thanks Richard - Will send this nugget to the appropriate teamsRichard_Nabavi said:
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:MaxPB said:Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?page=with:block-578377d1e4b0eebd31587035#liveblog-navigation
11.27 0 -
Thank goodness for that. May we see some less interesting times for a while.0
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One of the problems with lying is that you have to remember all the lies ! Otherwise, they begin to unravel.CarlottaVance said:Looks like Leadsom got out before more CV-fluffing was exposed:
http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.id/2016/07/andrea-leadsom-more-cv-woe.html
I wonder what she told members of the Conservative Association before she was selected.
I think she pulled out because the press were getting closer to the Channel Islands connection.
She is almost like a conwoman . [ Female version of a conman - nothing to do with being a Tory ].0 -
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And the person you love most: the one you said wouldn't be going anywhere. David Cameron. Oh wait.CarlottaVance said:
Gove, Boris, Farage, Leadsom......what is it with LEAVErs and taking responsibility?felix said:
Yay - the gift that keeps on giving. One by one the headbangers who won the referendum have fallen away at the prospect of dealing with it and thus shown their true destructive colours. Never mind the big girls [ and boys] will now try to make it work for the 17m and the 16m.PlatoSaid said:
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.DavidL said:Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.0 -
Demand three contradictory things, send a delegation of leavers to negotiate it, referendum on the result, after that goes down she has some options.Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:MaxPB said:Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?page=with:block-578377d1e4b0eebd31587035#liveblog-navigation
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The Tories have made absolutely the right decision for themselves and for the country. I don't like May's politics, but it's good to have a grown-up in charge.Jonathan said:What a development. Thought over the weekend that she might quit, but didn't act on it.
Politics is mad at the moment.0 -
Luke warm fudge is very popular with the public though. It is very British. Especially if wrapped in a Union Jack tin...GarethoftheVale2 said:
The risk of an early election is that it becomes EU ref 2 with UKIp campaigning for full leave and LDs campaigning to stay, while the Tories offer a luke warm fudge in the middledavid_herdson said:
If there is an autumn election, the Tories will fight it on an explicitly pro-Brexit platform now. That particular UKIP fox will be shot.Essexit said:
That's one reason, but there is another. As has been pointed out, if she goes to a GE having not triggered Article 50 UKIP could do very well indeed. I'd expect Farage to cancel his resignation again.SouthamObserver said:The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.
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The Eagle campaign graphics are ludicrous. 2 weeks of planning and that was the best they could come up with. A pink background with a strange version of the Union Flag and then her signature in white over the top. Does not project powerful leader...0
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Have you seen the local by election results?ToryJim said:Farron has called for an early General Election. Be careful what you wish for. Yazz had a great song but it might not be sage advice
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When danger reared its ugly head, Sir Robin bravely turned and fled....felix said:
Yay - the gift that keeps on giving. One by one the headbangers who won the referendum have fallen away at the prospect of dealing with it and thus shown their true destructive colours. Never mind the big girls [ and boys] will now try to make it work for the 17m and the 16m.PlatoSaid said:
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.DavidL said:Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
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The boundary commission hasn't produced them yet. First draft due out in the autumn. I suppose she could try and implement the last review that was killed off by the LDsMarqueeMark said:
First thing May should do in her honeymoon is get those bloody boundary changes through.... Article 50 can wait!tlg86 said:ToryJim said:Farron has called for an early General Election. Be careful what you wish for. Yazz had a great song but it might not be sage advice
Mind you it would be on the current boundaries.0 -
I don't like Gove at all, but he's got to be the choice there (if it comes down to those 2). Boris has no respect in Brussels, he's known for all the bendy-banana stories, he doesn't come across serious. Gove is a longterm eurosceptic so will be brimming with ideas - ignore all his Vote Leave campaign BS about hating experts and billions of turks coming over.SimonStClare said:
Both are certainly angling for it.DaemonBarber said:Will Boris/Gove be given the Brexit Brief?
BBC - "Gove: Theresa May has my 'full support'"
BBC - "Boris Johnson: May will be 'excellent' PM"
Boris was born to be Culture Secretary - I genuinely think he would be a good fit there.0 -
Steven Woolfe will be licking his lips. To elect anyone else would be a mistake for UKIP. He can eat into both Labour heartlands in the North and swing seats in the Midlands and East. Good luck to him.0
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I sincerely hope that is not true.Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think we'll be staying in the single market:MaxPB said:Yes, pro-leave but also staying in the single market.
Q: Would you stay in the single market?
May says she wants to get the best deal for trade in goods and services. But free movement of labour cannot continue. The Brexit vote was very clear on that, she says.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live?page=with:block-578377d1e4b0eebd31587035#liveblog-navigation
11.270 -
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It was pretty obvious from the start that she was a lightweight and a liar. It's no surprise the usual suspects fell for her.surbiton said:
One of the problems with lying is that you have to remember all the lies ! Otherwise, they begin to unravel.CarlottaVance said:Looks like Leadsom got out before more CV-fluffing was exposed:
http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.id/2016/07/andrea-leadsom-more-cv-woe.html
I wonder what she told members of the Conservative Association before she was selected.
I think she pulled out because the press were getting closer to the Channel Islands connection.
She is almost like a conwoman . [ Female version of a conman - nothing to do with being a Tory ].
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Indeed. A quick election in the next month or two will be at the advantage of the SNP, Conservatives and Lib Dems (probably in that order), and to the detriment of Labour. I'm currently undecided about how it might affect UKIP: there's too much up in the air there.logical_song said:
Have you seen the local by election results?ToryJim said:Farron has called for an early General Election. Be careful what you wish for. Yazz had a great song but it might not be sage advice
But UKIP seem to have Plato now, so they'll be fine. 0 -
Another example of why the yellow peril should have chosen Norman Lamb.ToryJim said:Farron has called for an early General Election. Be careful what you wish for. Yazz had a great song but it might not be sage advice
There is no requirement or need for a general election. The Conservatives had a mandate for a referendum whose result they would abide by. Part I actioned.
The country needs a period of political and economic stability and a general election is not in the national interest even if it might be in the narrow interest of the Tories.0 -
How's Leadsom doing? Oh, wait.....JennyFreeman said:
And the person you love most: the one you said wouldn't be going anywhere. David Cameron. Oh wait.CarlottaVance said:
Gove, Boris, Farage, Leadsom......what is it with LEAVErs and taking responsibility?felix said:
Yay - the gift that keeps on giving. One by one the headbangers who won the referendum have fallen away at the prospect of dealing with it and thus shown their true destructive colours. Never mind the big girls [ and boys] will now try to make it work for the 17m and the 16m.PlatoSaid said:
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.DavidL said:Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.0 -
Just looking at a photo of Theresa May standing in front of a banner "A country that works for everyone, not just a privileged few" - a damning statement that the Government of which she has been at the very highest level for the past six years has failed
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@JoeMurphyLondon: A minister tells me the Queen returns to London tomorrow. So it sounds like Mrs May will go to the Palace and become Prime Minister by tea.0
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If there is to be a GE, then I very much hope that A50 will be officially rendered before it is called. That will put the matter beyond recall, I think.volcanopete said:The calls for a GE will become irresistable,especially with Labour analysing its navel and rear-end for the foreseeable future.
Paul Mason @paulmasonnews 20m20 minutes ago Lambeth, London
Tory coronation of Theresa May, unopposed = act of an entitled elite w zero credibility. General Election Now!0 -
did someone mention tax returns?0
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She is much better than Leadsom. That's about it.SouthamObserver said:
The Tories have made absolutely the right decision for themselves and for the country. I don't like May's politics, but it's good to have a grown-up in charge.Jonathan said:What a development. Thought over the weekend that she might quit, but didn't act on it.
Politics is mad at the moment.
So we are going to have an unelected PM embarking on major constitutional reform with no mandate or desire to get a mandate for her specific proposals.
Good luck with that.
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https://twitter.com/petermannionmp/status/752477331328012288oxfordsimon said:The Eagle campaign graphics are ludicrous. 2 weeks of planning and that was the best they could come up with. A pink background with a strange version of the Union Flag and then her signature in white over the top. Does not project powerful leader...
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The previous version would still be far, far better than fighting an early election on the ridiculously out-of-date boundaries for the 650 seats.GarethoftheVale2 said:
The boundary commission hasn't produced them yet. First draft due out in the autumn. I suppose she could try and implement the last review that was killed off by the LDsMarqueeMark said:
First thing May should do in her honeymoon is get those bloody boundary changes through.... Article 50 can wait!tlg86 said:ToryJim said:Farron has called for an early General Election. Be careful what you wish for. Yazz had a great song but it might not be sage advice
Mind you it would be on the current boundaries.0 -
I guess I chose the wrong day to write my first PB article :-)0
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I suppose this is bad news for the tenants of chez Cameron in Notting Hill.0
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@WikiGuido: Six minutes apart, Labour have sent out press releases demanding a snap general election and announcing their own leadership contest.0
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If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.Paristonda said:
I don't like Gove at all, but he's got to be the choice there (if it comes down to those 2). Boris has no respect in Brussels, he's known for all the bendy-banana stories, he doesn't come across serious. Gove is a longterm eurosceptic so will be brimming with ideas - ignore all his Vote Leave campaign BS about hating experts and billions of turks coming over.SimonStClare said:
Both are certainly angling for it.DaemonBarber said:Will Boris/Gove be given the Brexit Brief?
BBC - "Gove: Theresa May has my 'full support'"
BBC - "Boris Johnson: May will be 'excellent' PM"
Boris was born to be Culture Secretary - I genuinely think he would be a good fit there.0 -
With no labour candidate there are well over 30 seats that the LibDems could win. The issue is whether standing down in Labour's favour would work given that neither wing of their party has much voter appeal right now.kjohnw said:
what 30 LD seats? lolDadge said:I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
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I wanted rational government that was socially liberal, did real things to help the less well off in society (such as the living wage and the increased personal allowance) worked hard but pragmatically to undo the devastation of Brown and generally did not think that more government was the answer to every question.PClipp said:
I think DavidL wanted something that Cameron and Osborne appeared to be - and perhaps they even were for a time, while we had the benefits of Coalition Government - but since the general election, they came out in their true colours. And in this referendum campaign, even more so. They are just a couple of unscrupulous bullies, who have no heed for the consequences of their actions.FF43 said:
Maybe so, but DavidL wants Cameron and Osborne, yet voted for an action that guaranteed their destruction along with the kind of politics they represent and which he approves of.PClipp said:
"Rational form of politics"' ??? Cameron and Osborne dominated the Remain campaign, crowding out all other voices and shades of opinion, and relied 100% on a campaign of fear.FF43 said:You voted Leave. What did you think would happen to Cameron and Osborne and the more rational form of politics?
I shall be very happy to see the back of the pair of them.
And that is what we got. It was great. So long David and thanks. Europe notwithstanding thanks.0 -
But but she "always gets what she wants"TheScreamingEagles said:
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Good job you haven't been rubbing your hands in glee at Labour's travails otherwise you would be open season for mockery yourself!PlatoSaid said:
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.DavidL said:Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
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So Leadsom quits, a pity as a contest would have given May a stronger mandate.
Presumably now May is effectively Tory leader, Cameron can be out of Downing Street by the end of the week and May in No 10 by the weekend? Presumably too Article 50 can be invoked by September and an EFTA/EEA/single market deal agreed by Christmas?0 -
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.Dadge said:I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
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@britainelects: Labour Party leadership election now confirmed: Angela Eagle has received required no. of nominations to stand.
@NCPoliticsUK: Labour leadership contest now officially on0 -
Is that compatible with being a Conservative member?PlatoSaid said:
I've just bunged some money towards UKIP. Not at all impressed.taffys said:''I do not think UKIP will benefit at all from this as regards the Tories - possibly from Labour but my feeling is the party will gradually fade away now. ''
LOL0 -
Yup. It's not advisable not to write PB threads more than 30 mins in advance these days.SouthamObserver said:I guess I chose the wrong day to write my first PB article :-)
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David Davis seems a good choice or Grayling.FF43 said:
If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.Paristonda said:
I don't like Gove at all, but he's got to be the choice there (if it comes down to those 2). Boris has no respect in Brussels, he's known for all the bendy-banana stories, he doesn't come across serious. Gove is a longterm eurosceptic so will be brimming with ideas - ignore all his Vote Leave campaign BS about hating experts and billions of turks coming over.SimonStClare said:
Both are certainly angling for it.DaemonBarber said:Will Boris/Gove be given the Brexit Brief?
BBC - "Gove: Theresa May has my 'full support'"
BBC - "Boris Johnson: May will be 'excellent' PM"
Boris was born to be Culture Secretary - I genuinely think he would be a good fit there.0 -
The issue there is that we still don't know why Leavers voted in the way they did. Excuse me if I laugh at any retconning by the pollsters.GIN1138 said:
We'll see what she does but if Theresa thinks she can get away with not implementing Brexit the 17m who voted LEAVE will have no other choice than to take the UKIP route in 2020.taffys said:''Indeed. Disaster awaits the Tories I think. ''
The country wants change.
The tories gave them fudger May.
They will not be forgiven.
We also shouldn't underestimate the tribalism in politics. I think any GE would be a fairly conventional one, assuming Corbyn is toppled.0 -
Do you have a list?IanB2 said:
With no labour candidate there are well over 30 seats that the LibDems could win. The issue is whether standing down in Labour's favour would work given that neither wing of their party has much voter appeal right now.kjohnw said:
what 30 LD seats? lolDadge said:I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
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Agreed. Gove is too abrasive, and Boris is Boris. Actually, temperamentally Andrea Leadsom would be a better bet, although her complete lack of experience is a problem.FF43 said:If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.
In Theresa May's shoes, I'd put Boris in a role as the figurehead in a new department dedicated to securing trade deals. Something where he's out of the country a lot, and where his penchant for getting himself publicity would actually be beneficial.0 -
Does anyone care now? Not even the BBC felt able to cover her launch speech in full...Scott_P said:@britainelects: Labour Party leadership election now confirmed: Angela Eagle has received required no. of nominations to stand.
@NCPoliticsUK: Labour leadership contest now officially on0 -
Some movement in year of next GE betting,2016 backed into 6-4 2nd fav,2020 remains fav at evens.Could there be a little bit of value in 2017,out now to 5-1?0
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No evidence whatsoever for the 15% point. Labour shouldn't touch the Greens with a ten foot pole.NickPalmer said:
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.Dadge said:I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
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IDS - as ever - wins 'brass neck' of the day:SouthamObserver said:
It was pretty obvious from the start that she was a lightweight and a liar. It's no surprise the usual suspects fell for her.surbiton said:
One of the problems with lying is that you have to remember all the lies ! Otherwise, they begin to unravel.CarlottaVance said:Looks like Leadsom got out before more CV-fluffing was exposed:
http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.id/2016/07/andrea-leadsom-more-cv-woe.html
I wonder what she told members of the Conservative Association before she was selected.
I think she pulled out because the press were getting closer to the Channel Islands connection.
She is almost like a conwoman . [ Female version of a conman - nothing to do with being a Tory ].
IDS: Leadsom attackers must 'examine their conscience'
Iain Duncan Smith has said that those who attacked Andrea Leadsom over the weekend must "examine their conscience".
He said: "The circumstances of last few days give you some indication[about why she stepped aside]. There are people in the party who need to examine own consciences and recognise that this is now way to treat colleagues. They'd should be putting the country first, not their personal ambitions."
So it's their fault Leadsom embellished her CV and her supporters lied about it?0 -
A question for PBers:
When is the official start of the Silly Season? June 24th or another date?0 -
She's the Tory Eoin ClarkeScrapheap_as_was said:0 -
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tlg86 said:
I suppose this is bad news for the tenants of chez Cameron in Notting Hill.
Depends on the lease they've signed.....they could be there for another 4 years.....0 -
This is a particularly stupid line to take. Farage isn't even an MP. What on earth has the result got to do with him, in terms of implementation? Gove was an idiot to shaft Boris, but it was inherently unpredictable. Leadsom was an accidental candidate.CarlottaVance said:
Gove, Boris, Farage, Leadsom......what is it with LEAVErs and taking responsibility?felix said:
Yay - the gift that keeps on giving. One by one the headbangers who won the referendum have fallen away at the prospect of dealing with it and thus shown their true destructive colours. Never mind the big girls [ and boys] will now try to make it work for the 17m and the 16m.PlatoSaid said:
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.DavidL said:Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
Any responsibility for the result is down to Cameron. Firstly for making the commitment, secondly for running one of the most abjectly stupid campaigns in political history.0 -
Wot-ev-vuh.....Scott_P said:@britainelects: Labour Party leadership election now confirmed: Angela Eagle has received required no. of nominations to stand.
@NCPoliticsUK: Labour leadership contest now officially on0 -
For governor of South Georgia? Maybe but you'd worry for the welfare of the Penguins.jonny83 said:
David Davis seems a good choice or Grayling.FF43 said:
If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.Paristonda said:
I don't like Gove at all, but he's got to be the choice there (if it comes down to those 2). Boris has no respect in Brussels, he's known for all the bendy-banana stories, he doesn't come across serious. Gove is a longterm eurosceptic so will be brimming with ideas - ignore all his Vote Leave campaign BS about hating experts and billions of turks coming over.SimonStClare said:
Both are certainly angling for it.DaemonBarber said:Will Boris/Gove be given the Brexit Brief?
BBC - "Gove: Theresa May has my 'full support'"
BBC - "Boris Johnson: May will be 'excellent' PM"
Boris was born to be Culture Secretary - I genuinely think he would be a good fit there.0 -
I agree. I've had similar suggestions from the same sort of person on the right, advocating Con-UKIP deals. Both big parties would be nuts to go down that road.Jonathan said:
No evidence whatsoever for the 15% point. Labour shouldn't touch the Greens with a ten foot pole.NickPalmer said:
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.Dadge said:I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
It all sounds very clever when sat in committee rooms but the public tend to resent being told what to do in that way and can be disinclined to play ball.0 -
What's the bigger job in this Parly ?
Minister for Brexit or CoTE0 -
That's very good. But the Tories are asking to be "continental Brexit", surely?Pulpstar said:
UKIP - Full English Brexitdavid_herdson said:
If there is an autumn election, the Tories will fight it on an explicitly pro-Brexit platform now. That particular UKIP fox will be shot.Essexit said:
That's one reason, but there is another. As has been pointed out, if she goes to a GE having not triggered Article 50 UKIP could do very well indeed. I'd expect Farage to cancel his resignation again.SouthamObserver said:The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.
Tories - Theresa's Brexit fudgecake.
Lib Dems - Remain
Labour - Err err errrrrrr erm err emmmm ah a Ha HA HAHAHAHAHHAHAHA Bwahahaha LOL0 -
Well..surbiton said:
She is almost like a conwoman . [ Female version of a conman - nothing to do with being a Tory ].0 -
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?PlatoSaid said:
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.DavidL said:Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.0 -
Norman is hardly Spring lamb .... more old mutton !!MarqueeMark said:0 -
I rather suspect that the public would buy fudge.GarethoftheVale2 said:
The risk of an early election is that it becomes EU ref 2 with UKIp campaigning for full leave and LDs campaigning to stay, while the Tories offer a luke warm fudge in the middledavid_herdson said:
If there is an autumn election, the Tories will fight it on an explicitly pro-Brexit platform now. That particular UKIP fox will be shot.Essexit said:
That's one reason, but there is another. As has been pointed out, if she goes to a GE having not triggered Article 50 UKIP could do very well indeed. I'd expect Farage to cancel his resignation again.SouthamObserver said:The only reason May might not call an early GE is Scotland. The SNP would presumably win just about every seat on a mandate of a new independence referendum. That is possibly not something that she would want to deal with while negotiating Brexit. However, apart from that she would be mad not to do it. The Tories will get their biggest majority since WW2 and Labour will be torn asunder, in no position to oppose with a leader - adored by the membership - who has just led the party to its most catastrophic defeat ever and is despised by the party's remaining rump of MPs.
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I think its either immediate (i.e. 2016) or not until 2020.... What reason is there to hold an election unless its now due to new Leadership.....volcanopete said:Some movement in year of next GE betting,2016 backed into 6-4 2nd fav,2020 remains fav at evens.Could there be a little bit of value in 2017,out now to 5-1?
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All this the Queen is not in London, if she is at Windsor then both Cam and May can go to her!0
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Sky — formal procedure for Labour leadership election triggered.0
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I'd typed up that they might be siblings in some distant universe but then thought that was too harsh... so deleted it ..TheScreamingEagles said:
She's the Tory Eoin ClarkeScrapheap_as_was said:0 -
The Spanish Second Republic sent Franco to the Canary Islands to keep him out the way... how well did that work for them?!DavidL said:
For governor of South Georgia? Maybe but you'd worry for the welfare of the Penguins.jonny83 said:
David Davis seems a good choice or Grayling.FF43 said:
If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.Paristonda said:
I don't like Gove at all, but he's got to be the choice there (if it comes down to those 2). Boris has no respect in Brussels, he's known for all the bendy-banana stories, he doesn't come across serious. Gove is a longterm eurosceptic so will be brimming with ideas - ignore all his Vote Leave campaign BS about hating experts and billions of turks coming over.SimonStClare said:
Both are certainly angling for it.DaemonBarber said:Will Boris/Gove be given the Brexit Brief?
BBC - "Gove: Theresa May has my 'full support'"
BBC - "Boris Johnson: May will be 'excellent' PM"
Boris was born to be Culture Secretary - I genuinely think he would be a good fit there.0 -
Boris as party chairman, surely?Richard_Nabavi said:
Agreed. Gove is too abrasive, and Boris is Boris. Actually, temperamentally Andrea Leadsom would be a better bet, although her complete lack of experience is a problem.FF43 said:If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.
In Theresa May's shoes, I'd put Boris in a role as the figurehead in a new department dedicated to securing trade deals. Something where he's out of the country a lot, and where his penchant for getting himself publicity would actually be beneficial.
Leadsom can be given BIS after Javid has underwhelmed.0 -
agreed, plus Cameron told the voters before the last election that he wouldn't serve a full term, and the tories were democratically elected on that basis. The Government needs to stabilise UK Plc now and come up with a clear exit plan from the EU. In 2020 the voters will make their judgment on the success or failure of this. They have given the mandate to leave the EU, but now expect the Government to work out the details of how best to achieve that in the national interest, and bring the country together.JackW said:
Another example of why the yellow peril should have chosen Norman Lamb.ToryJim said:Farron has called for an early General Election. Be careful what you wish for. Yazz had a great song but it might not be sage advice
There is no requirement or need for a general election. The Conservatives had a mandate for a referendum whose result they would abide by. Part I actioned.
The country needs a period of political and economic stability and a general election is not in the national interest even if it might be in the narrow interest of the Tories.0 -
I can see Johnson as Foreign Sec and on the Brexit Committee along with May, the Home Sec and the person doing the actual work on Brexit. Gove maybe Home Sec. He needs to be in a department where he won't cause too much damage. Johnson is lazy and is less of a risk. Whether May wants to give Leavers two of the top cabinet posts depends on how much she thinks she needs to keep them and their faction on board, compared with rewarding her followers.Richard_Nabavi said:
Agreed. Gove is too abrasive, and Boris is Boris. Actually, temperamentally Andrea Leadsom would be a better bet, although her complete lack of experience is a problem.FF43 said:If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.
In her shoes, I'd put Boris in a role as the figurehead in a new department dedicated to securing trade deals. Something where he's out of the country a lot, and where his penchant for getting himself publicity would actually be beneficial.0 -
No, the Greens would not get 15%+. Most Labour voters think that Corbyn is crap, 300,000 members don't. Many of them are in areas where voting Green would be a complete waste of time. Would you vote Green in Islington North, Nick? :-)NickPalmer said:
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.Dadge said:I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
Anyway, it is not going to happen.
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This is the way I'm looking at it. Winning the vote and getting a version of Brexit and not being full EU members will at least be a consolation, though I think only the soft leavers like my parents will be truly happy with what May delivers.Bob__Sykes said:
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?PlatoSaid said:
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.DavidL said:Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.0 -
Labour demanding a GE cuts the FTPA knot?0
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Boris in leopard skin high heels .... What an image ..Richard_Nabavi said:In Theresa May's shoes, I'd put Boris in a role....
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I think it is still relevant, so hopefully you can fit it in at some stage soon. I'd be happy to tweak it if you feel that will help.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup. It's not advisable not to write PB threads more than 30 mins in advance these days.SouthamObserver said:I guess I chose the wrong day to write my first PB article :-)
0 -
Heart of stone
Andrew Neil Retweeted
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 1h1 hour ago
Who is going to break it to @LouiseMensch ? It's early in New York.0 -
Has an obvious, powerful appeal to the quiet bat people.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/petermannionmp/status/752477331328012288oxfordsimon said:The Eagle campaign graphics are ludicrous. 2 weeks of planning and that was the best they could come up with. A pink background with a strange version of the Union Flag and then her signature in white over the top. Does not project powerful leader...
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No, it's fine as it is. It will go up, is very relevant.SouthamObserver said:
I think it is still relevant, so hopefully you can fit it in at some stage soon. I'd be happy to tweak it if you feel that will help.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup. It's not advisable not to write PB threads more than 30 mins in advance these days.SouthamObserver said:I guess I chose the wrong day to write my first PB article :-)
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Gove as Home Secretary could set about doing those things that he would say were his new boss's failings in her six years in the job. His first negotiation will be asking her for an extra billion quid for an effective Border Patrol....FF43 said:
I can see Johnson as Foreign Sec and on the Brexit Committee along with May, the Home Sec and the person doing the actual work on Brexit. Gove maybe Home Sec. He needs to be in a department where he won't cause too much damage. Johnson is lazy and is less of a risk. Whether May wants to give Leavers two of the top cabinet posts depends on how much she thinks she needs to keep them and their faction on board, compared with rewarding her followers.Richard_Nabavi said:
Agreed. Gove is too abrasive, and Boris is Boris. Actually, temperamentally Andrea Leadsom would be a better bet, although her complete lack of experience is a problem.FF43 said:If Theresa May has any sense she will keep those two away from the Brexit brief - beyond a possible PR oversight to keep Leavers happy. She will give the job to someone like herself - a boring, safe pair of hands with no strong opinions who will keep out of the limelight.
In her shoes, I'd put Boris in a role as the figurehead in a new department dedicated to securing trade deals. Something where he's out of the country a lot, and where his penchant for getting himself publicity would actually be beneficial.0 -
Please, please, dont reward Leadsom by giving her a senior position in the May cabinet.0
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"The Eagles are coming, the Eagles are coming".Jonathan said:
TLOTR is cold hard reality compared to this.0 -
Tactical voting worked in 1997, but it wasn't explicitly endorsed by the parties. I think you're right that being seen to tell voters what do can backfire, but getting some sort of informal arrangements in certain seats could help massively.david_herdson said:
I agree. I've had similar suggestions from the same sort of person on the right, advocating Con-UKIP deals. Both big parties would be nuts to go down that road.Jonathan said:
No evidence whatsoever for the 15% point. Labour shouldn't touch the Greens with a ten foot pole.NickPalmer said:
If Corbyn is ousted by not letting him stand and there is then a snap election, I'd think the Greens will get 15%+, entirely at Labour's expense. They certainly won't agree to any sort of pact in that case. It's quite possible that Labour could lose 100 seats in that scenario. If Corbyn stays, a Green pact is politically possible, though I'm not sure the LibDems would be up for it.Dadge said:I wonder whether, if Labour can oust Corbyn (big if), it's worth trying to engineer a Lab-LD-Green electoral pact? If Lab stand down in say 30 LD seats and 5 Green seats, and in return LD and Green agree not to stand in any Lab-Con marginals, there'd be a faint hope of averting a Tory or Tory/Ukip landslide.
It all sounds very clever when sat in committee rooms but the public tend to resent being told what to do in that way and can be disinclined to play ball.0 -
Chris Grayling is the man of the moment. Either he becomes Chancellor, or in my view marginally more likely, he takes on the Brexit role. Are there odds on that?0
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I object very strongly to the notion of members not getting a vote. A pro-Remain PM given the job as a result of enormous media pressure exerted on her rival.Bob__Sykes said:
As a Brexiter, surely it's better to be in the world where Leave has won even if you have a pro-Remain PM (but committed to Leave) rather than any other point in the time in the past 30 years when the prospect of the UK leaving the EU was nothing but a pipedream?PlatoSaid said:
I've been waiting for my silent rage to subside - and it isn't. I can't recall the last time I felt so grrrrr. Thirty years or more.DavidL said:Christ. What a mess. There was an excellent Matt a few days ago with 2 students saying they were studying politics and in particular the period from Thursday morning to Friday lunchtime.
My list of reasons to support Theresa has not got any longer. I am suspicious of her authoritarian tendencies, her belief in government action, her failure of delivery at the Home Office and her narrow outlook on life. Having had the government that was probably closest to my own political views in my adult life under Cameron and Osborne I feel at most a semi detached supporter of this new government.
I hope for the best but fear the worst in a situation where we have no effective opposition. The sheer self indulgence of those people who nominated and voted for Corbyn makes me sick.
I like democracy and would accept the result whether it was May or not. I'm politically homeless right now.0
