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Someone's changed his tune from a fortnight ago!AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Hmmm.
Corbyn to Step Down Q3 2016 1.72 @ Paddy.0 -
This was a while ago!OldKingCole said:
My cousin has indeed posted to the effect that farmers have had problems, but I gather that the Govt is taking action to sort them out.Charles said:
Some cousins had a farm outside Christchurch a while back, but couldn't make a go of it so ended up selling up and moving to Kent.OldKingCole said:
Agree about the visiting. Spectacular, particularly in South Island. The cousin who I advised to go loves it. After a few years working for the firm he started with he and his wife have branched out on their own, although he’s still employed part time on business development, and they’re obviously doing very well. His sons are in the “looking for work” stage now and don’t seem to be thinking about emigrating.Charles said:
It's like Dorset from the 1950s. Lovely place to visit but wouldn't want to live there.
One of my sons, who lives in Thailand, is thinking about moving on to NZ as offering more opportunities for his family. For him the downside is that NZ is a day away from anywhere but Australia.
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Good morning, everyone.
Watched both Question Time and This Week, for the first time in ages.
QT wasn't too illuminating. Thornberry remains an arse. Must admit when I saw they had a comedian (Russell Kane) on I thought it'd be Sarpongesque nonsense, but he actually made some interesting points.
This Week was, of course, better. Interesting to see that Rachel Shabi was as politically obtuse as ever. [She's occasionally on the Sky papers review of an evening, and rarely offers anything beyond condescension and a smirk].
On-topic: I'll believe the Black Knight's dead when I see it. Members losing faith only matters if either Corbyn jumps, or the PLP forces a challenge.0 -
I get that, but if he hadn't stood down straight away, it would have been possible to avoid some the jitters we've had since the result. And outsourcing the negotiations to a Leaver would have reassured the voters that the result was going to be driven thru with good will.ydoethur said:
The second part makes sense, not the first. Cameron was tolerated reluctantly by the party because he was seen as a winner, a golden boy who always found a way to win. The referendum destroyed that and he had to go.anotherDave said:One interesting thing from Ms Leadsom's ITV bit this morning. She wanted Cameron to stay, to have avoided the current uncertainly. Ideally he would have appointed a Leaver to head and begin negotiations ASAP.
(Both May and Leadsom have advocated a specific minister/department to deal with EU-UK deal. Leadsom said deputy PM in her LBC interview.)
I also think he was very shocked and hurt to realise just how out of touch he was with his party and with the country. He sold himself as the man who got the Tories to listen and deliver - and it must have seemed as though they had been right all along. That must have shattered his self belief and it's not surprising he wanted out.0 -
I'm screwed either way, I've got a mortgage and savings, and for logistical reasons I can't use one to pay off the other in case I need to move house again in twelve months to a more expensive area for family reasons.blackburn63 said:
This is getting better, imagine how mortgage payers would react if interest rates went up.AlastairMeeks said:
We could see negative interest rates.Sandpit said:
They're 0.5% now, there's not an awful lot of scope for cutting them much more!blackburn63 said:
Now this gets interesting, what will he cut them from and to and what will the effect be?tyson said:
Ergghhh....Carney saying he will need to cut interest rates. That announcement was a clear indication of things to come. You CorBrexers just ignore the facts. You stupidly look at one weeks trading on the footsie, ignoring even the collapse of sterling in the US.blackburn63 said:
And what is that evidence?ThomasNashe said:
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.blackburn63 said:
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.SouthamObserver said:
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.blackburn63 said:@southam
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
And I keep hearing millions of ordinary people are worse off.0 -
Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.0 -
You forgot to say it's only 45 minutes until P1 in AustriaMorris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Watched both Question Time and This Week, for the first time in ages.
QT wasn't too illuminating. Thornberry remains an arse. Must admit when I saw they had a comedian (Russell Kane) on I thought it'd be Sarpongesque nonsense, but he actually made some interesting points.
This Week was, of course, better. Interesting to see that Rachel Shabi was as politically obtuse as ever. [She's occasionally on the Sky papers review of an evening, and rarely offers anything beyond condescension and a smirk].
On-topic: I'll believe the Black Knight's dead when I see it. Members losing faith only matters if either Corbyn jumps, or the PLP forces a challenge.
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A lot of these banks will act as prime brokerages and self-clear any trades, the rules about EUR clearing in the EU won't really affect them too much, 99% of the business would still take place in London, 1% would move to Dublin (not Paris).JosiasJessop said:
We haven't exited yet, have we?anotherDave said:"BARCLAYS 'HAS NO PLANS TO MOVE JOBS' AFTER BREXIT VOTE: BBC. Joins Goldman and MS to refute fearmongering"
twitter.com/zerohedge/status/748518505478258694
"HSBC February: if Brexit we will move 1000 bankers to France
HSBC now: we will not move 1000 bankers to France"
twitter.com/zerohedge/status/7487072431435939840 -
It's a fair point that the lower pound etc. are indicators, rather than evidence, but they are based on real flows of money and, like betting, indicate where those with a bit more knowledge believe we may be heading. Asking for "evidence" just a few days after the vote, and before anything has actually happened, is a bit naive. But there is already some anecdotal evidence you can pick up of contracts being cancelled, business decisions being reviewed etc. But most business takes time to work through investment choices, and these take time to impact on the real economy. Our most immediate challenge is that the UK now looks a lot less attractive a destination for inward investment.blackburn63 said:
But you have failed to offer any evidence, you simply mention "likelihood"ThomasNashe said:
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.blackburn63 said:
OK so no evidence just scaremongeringThomasNashe said:
Early days, but a 10% drop in the value of the pound and the likelihood of negative interest rates is not particularly good news. It's also clear to me that if we want to protect our trade with Europe we're going to have to sign up to continued free movement.blackburn63 said:
And what is that evidence?ThomasNashe said:
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.blackburn63 said:
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.SouthamObserver said:blackburn63 said:@southam
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.0 -
To be honest he doesn't come out of that very well. Given that this is the 100 year anniversary of the starting of the battle of the Somme one does have to reflect whether he is the guy you would want to rely on in the trenches. I think Leadsom for the last 2 is looking a very good bet.CarlottaVance said:Is Gove serious?
Mr Gove said he wanted his chief of staff to be Dominic Cummings, his former special adviser at the Department of Education and a key strategist in the Leave campaign. Mr Cummings is a controversial and at times divisive figure, and Mr Johnson put his foot down.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/how-boris-johnson-was-brought-to-his-knees-by-the-cuckoo-nest-pl/0 -
Mike is wrong in the thread to describe Corbyn as "doomed" on the figures in this poll. He is still ahead of Eagle by 50% to 40% which must make him the favourite still.
What we can though say is that Labour members' attitudes have shifted significantly, something which until this poll was merely heresay. Eagle is in with a shout. 10% is a relatively small gap though. Reality may be a bit either way and in any case 10% could be closed in a campaign. A lot of members naturally rallied around the party leader once he was elected, regardless of who they voted for, and there may still be some of that instinct to defend any party leader in the figures, but once a leadership contest kicks off I think Corbyn's advantage there would dwindle. MPs will no doubt be communicating directly with party members in their own constituencies, with whom their views do carry some weight, and that could potentially shift opinion too.
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But has the pound really dropped against the Euro much more than its normal trading volatility? 2-3% maybe. Seems like overblown knee-jerk reaction. The bigger issue surely is with the Euro falling much more against the dollar, it is now cheaper for Americans to visit Amalfi...Cyclefree said:
The drop in the pound is a concern to those in the tourist industry here in Amalfi - where the British are a big part of the customer base.ThomasNashe said:
Early days, but a 10% drop in the value of the pound and the likelihood of negative interest rates is not particularly good news. It's also clear to me that if we want to protect our trade with Europe we're going to have to sign up to continued free movement.blackburn63 said:
And what is that evidence?ThomasNashe said:
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.blackburn63 said:
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.SouthamObserver said:
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.blackburn63 said:@southam
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.
How Brexit is handled and who handles it will affect the consequences but I think it is far too early to make a definitive judgment.0 -
On Corbyn, if the Labour plotters don't force the issue before Chilcott then he is going to be very hard to remove. Once he makes his statement on that, all of the hard left and stop the war types will forgive his EU stance. No one else in the party will call Blair and Bush war criminals in Parliament though many will think it, for that he will retail a fair amount of popularity.0
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If you're looking for a substantial figure who didn't vote for war in Iraq, Ed Miliband qualifies.
#justsaying0 -
Mr. Sandpit, d'you know if it's on Channel 4 this weekend (live, obviously)?
Hamilton's on the verge of engine penalties:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/366766480 -
I can't think of any, while their party was in government. Plenty from opposition of course, Cameron and Blair being the two most recent examples.SquareRoot said:
How many 20th/21st century PM's have become so straight from being an MP without ever holding a cabinet or shadow cabinet post?Sandpit said:
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there.SquareRoot said:mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.0 -
Corbyn's poll rating may have dipped with members but he still leads Eagle by 10% and Jarvis and Watson by more than that which suggests he is anything but doomed. If Eagle launches a challenge and Corbyn beats her with members, as this poll suggests he would, then he has renewed his mandate and is secure until the next election. This poll confirms McDonnell as the only plausible alternative to Corbyn, he is from the same wing of the party and the only alternative Corbyn might consider standing down for. Although McDonnell does not do as well with members as Corbyn the poll showed he would beat Dan Jarvis and if Corbyn backed him I think members would too. In 2003 IDS lost a vote of confidence amongst his MPs and was replaced by the right-wing, anti EU Michael Howard who was his Shadow Chancellor. The left-wing McDonnell is Corbyn's Shadow Chancellor. Could history be about to repeat itself only this time for Labour not the Tories?0
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Next week is the British Grand Prix so without looking I can safely say its highlights only.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, d'you know if it's on Channel 4 this weekend (live, obviously)?
Hamilton's on the verge of engine penalties:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/366766480 -
More like your betting slips!AlastairMeeks said:If you're looking for a substantial figure who didn't vote for war in Iraq, Ed Miliband qualifies.
#justsaying0 -
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.0 -
BeIn Sports for meMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, d'you know if it's on Channel 4 this weekend (live, obviously)?
Hamilton's on the verge of engine penalties:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36676648
They buy in the Sky feed for all the races. www.beinsports.net
Lewis was always going to get penalties after his early reliability issues. Unfortunately for him the field is a lot more competitive this year than last, he'll struggle to make the podium from 10 places back in the latter half of the season.0 -
A happy coincidence.MaxPB said:
More like your betting slips!AlastairMeeks said:If you're looking for a substantial figure who didn't vote for war in Iraq, Ed Miliband qualifies.
#justsaying0 -
But I suggest the Tories are now going to have the Brexit label pinned on them, regardless of how particular areas voted. We only had the referendum because of the anti-EU leanings of the Tory party (spurred on by Farage, of course), and Leave only won because Tories led the campaign. The other principal parties all opposed our exit. When people look back at the decision, clearly the Tories are going to get the blame (or the credit, if things go well) and I cannot see how they escape from this if some of the worst economic consequences come to pass.MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.0 -
If Corbyn stands down all candidates to replace him would need to get sufficient nominations from the PLP and MEPs before they could stand. McDonnell will not get these. That's why Corbyn will not stand down. Corbyn will only resign when the Labour party's rules have been rewritten. For that he needs control of the NEC. He will go once that is secured. Labour is finished as a party of potential government. It is as simple as that. The majority of the membership is with Corbyn on this.HYUFD said:Corbyn's poll rating may have dipped with members but he still leads Eagle by 10% and Jarvis and Watson by more than that which suggests he is anything but doomed. If Eagle launches a challenge and Corbyn beats her with members, as this poll suggests he would, then he has renewed his mandate and is secure until the next election. This poll confirms McDonnell as the only plausible alternative to Corbyn, he is from the same wing of the party and the only alternative Corbyn might consider standing down for. Although McDonnell does not do as well with members as Corbyn the poll showed he would beat Dan Jarvis and if Corbyn backed him I think members would too. In 2003 IDS lost a vote of confidence amongst his MPs and was replaced by the right-wing, anti EU Michael Howard who was his Shadow Chancellor. The left-wing McDonnell is Corbyn's Shadow Chancellor. Could history be about to repeat itself only this time for Labour not the Tories?
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Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.AlastairMeeks said:
We could see negative interest rates.Sandpit said:
They're 0.5% now, there's not an awful lot of scope for cutting them much more!blackburn63 said:
Now this gets interesting, what will he cut them from and to and what will the effect be?tyson said:
Ergghhh....Carney saying he will need to cut interest rates. That announcement was a clear indication of things to come. You CorBrexers just ignore the facts. You stupidly look at one weeks trading on the footsie, ignoring even the collapse of sterling in the US.blackburn63 said:
And what is that evidence?ThomasNashe said:
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.blackburn63 said:
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.SouthamObserver said:
Life does go on. Most of our business is in Asia and North America. I've lost track of the number of calls and emails I've had that express astonishment at the vote and laugh at us, good naturedly of course. The Trumps, the Palins, the Le Pens and the Putins may applaud, but no-one else is. And we have not begun to feel the economic effects yet.blackburn63 said:@southam
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?
In a couple of years this will settle down and other countries will have voted too, the tone on here will change as it has in the last week. A couple of planks are still calling us dimwitted racists, most have accepted it, you should too.0 -
Leadsom does have the feel of the dark horse he steals away with the party membership at the end, but, I think this time there is a general feeling that the country needs a firm grip and experience - I have no idea, but suspect (hope) that Tory members will feel the same way.Sandpit said:
I can't think of any, while their party was in government. Plenty from opposition of course, Cameron and Blair being the two most recent examples.SquareRoot said:
How many 20th/21st century PM's have become so straight from being an MP without ever holding a cabinet or shadow cabinet post?Sandpit said:
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there.SquareRoot said:mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Of course, there is speculation that there wont be a ballot as May will sweep up all the MPs in their ballots.0 -
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 11m11 minutes ago
Wonder what odds you could get on Gove announcing "I"m not running after all".0 -
eek said:
Next week is the British Grand Prix so without looking I can safely say its highlights only.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, d'you know if it's on Channel 4 this weekend (live, obviously)?
Hamilton's on the verge of engine penalties:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36676648
One of the few weekends I don't like being an expat - went to Silverstone every year when I lived in the UK. Same with the Goodwood Festival of Speed, which was last weekend.
Watching on telly isn't the same as going there. Got tickets to the season finale in Abu Dhabi though 0 -
Culturally New Zealand is closer to the UK than any nation on earth, including Australia but Australia has a warmer and sunnier climate and a higher average incomeSouthamObserver said:
NZ is wonderful if you have a bit of money. The top of the South Island around Nelson - where my brother lives - is paradise. Doctors and others working in essential professions have it all. But it's a tough place to build a future in if you don't have such skills. Lots of kiwis emigrate to Australia these days, I think.foxinsoxuk said:
I have been canvassed for a job in NZ. Smallish city with good climate and the great outdoors on the doorstep.Tim_B said:
Nuts - come on back home to Georgia: the weather's better and it's much cheaper.foxinsoxuk said:
I couldn't agree more. The future looks bleak.SouthamObserver said:
And at a time when the Tories are hugely vulnerable. The next Chancellor will be raising taxes and/or making even deeper spending cuts; while the Brexit deal is unlikely to bring immigration down in any significant way. What Tory Leavers promised voters is not going to happen. And Tory Leavers are likely to be a majority in May's cabinet. Can you imagine what a credible opposition could do with a Leave-dominated Treasury team, or defence team, or Home Office, or MoD? It would be open goal after open goal. Instead, Corbyn will give them a free pass and the green light to agree a Brexit deal that harms millions of ordinary people.foxinsoxuk said:On topic:
I would like to see Corbyn go the same way he got in.
Without being voted out by the membership there will always be a feeling of betrayal or stab in the back.
If the membership re-elects Corbyn then it is the end of Labour as a potential alternative.government. We would have a defacto one party state, albeit one party with its own internal opposition.
If I were younger, I would emigrate, but at my age I just have to put up with it as best that I can.
A bit too much sunshine and optimism for me, you can only stand so much of that cr@p!
I like life with a bit of an edge and the possibility of misery. It is what keeps me here.0 -
They will escape because there is no credible opposition and there will not be for the foreseeable future. To keep on winning all the Tories need is 37% of the vote. Look after pensioners and well off home owners - while Labour makes itself ever more irrelevant and the LDs struggle to rebuild beyond their old heartlands - and that's the job done.IanB2 said:
But I suggest the Tories are now going to have the Brexit label pinned on them, regardless of how particular areas voted. We only had the referendum because of the anti-EU leanings of the Tory party (spurred on by Farage, of course), and Leave only won because Tories led the campaign. The other principal parties all opposed our exit. When people look back at the decision, clearly the Tories are going to get the blame (or the credit, if things go well) and I cannot see how they escape from this if some of the worst economic consequences come to pass.MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
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Can MPs please not forget about Mr Campbell when they're making accusations in Parliament next Wednesday?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
You can Dutch it or go for the Next Quarter.Sandpit said:
Any way to lay that? If he announces he's standing down tomorrow it will take until Q4 (1st October) to hold the formal contest. Unless he was to do an Ed and just walk away of course.MattW said:Hmmm.
Corbyn to Step Down Q3 2016 1.72 @ Paddy.
Q4 is 6.5.
Q1 2017 is 13.
"Singles Only. Applies to the date that Jeremy Corbyn formally steps down as Labour Party leader. PP decision final in settlement." (Whatever that means :-).
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=26028890 -
Theresa May is against an early general election. I don't think the Tories want one. That might be a reason for Labour to hold off.
But for two things. Firstly, having your leader call his most electorally successful predecessor a war criminal would be an enormous embarrassment for the party. Secondly the deal we negotiate with the EU is critical to our future. It's not true that you can only achieve things in government. Ed Miliband pressured the Tories into various switches on policy. Bernie Sanders has done so with Hilary Clinton, at least in terms of her pitch. Labour needs to make sure that the government doesn't just do a deal with the EU to keep the city sweet. Is Corbyn capable of holding their feet to the fire?0 -
O/T, in rare good news for the planet, it seems that the banning of CFCs may have had some success in allowing the hole in the ozone layer to repair:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-366749960 -
I think the Party will consider her professional experience prior to Parliament sufficient to match May's political experience.rottenborough said:
Leadsom does have the feel of the dark horse he steals away with the party membership at the end, but, I think this time there is a general feeling that the country needs a firm grip and experience - I have no idea, but suspect (hope) that Tory members will feel the same way.Sandpit said:
I can't think of any, while their party was in government. Plenty from opposition of course, Cameron and Blair being the two most recent examples.SquareRoot said:
How many 20th/21st century PM's have become so straight from being an MP without ever holding a cabinet or shadow cabinet post?Sandpit said:
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there.SquareRoot said:mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Of course, there is speculation that there wont be a ballot as May will sweep up all the MPs in their ballots.0 -
I think Mike has called this completely wrong. Corbyn can haul in a lot more £3ers and the moronic Tory tendency will also participate. Corbyn is rock solid safe.Wulfrun_Phil said:Mike is wrong in the thread to describe Corbyn as "doomed" on the figures in this poll. He is still ahead of Eagle by 50% to 40% which must make him the favourite still.
What we can though say is that Labour members' attitudes have shifted significantly, something which until this poll was merely heresay. Eagle is in with a shout. 10% is a relatively small gap though. Reality may be a bit either way and in any case 10% could be closed in a campaign. A lot of members naturally rallied around the party leader once he was elected, regardless of who they voted for, and there may still be some of that instinct to defend any party leader in the figures, but once a leadership contest kicks off I think Corbyn's advantage there would dwindle. MPs will no doubt be communicating directly with party members in their own constituencies, with whom their views do carry some weight, and that could potentially shift opinion too.
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Yes, we are in extraordinary economic times and have been since 2008 - because it is no longer news it is easy to think that somehow everything has gone back to normal. But without almost-free-money the fear is that the economy would seize up altogether. Sadly this policy has had some very adverse consequences including the housing bubble, the massive growth in inequality (of wealth rather than income), and a lot of disillusion, including the EUref result itself. But Japan has been stuck in this rut for over twenty years and not managed to find any way of escape, meanwhile the levels of government debt in Japan have risen to levels that will be impossible ever to reverse, without some hyper inflationary crisis. You can see why an increasing number of economic commentators fear that the real crash is yet to come.chestnut said:
Somewhere down the line people will wonder why interest rates were kept at 0.5% at a time when house prices rose by 25% over three years, and over 50% in London.AlastairMeeks said:
We could see negative interest rates.Sandpit said:
They're 0.5% now, there's not an awful lot of scope for cutting them much more!blackburn63 said:
Now this gets interesting, what will he cut them from and to and what will the effect be?tyson said:
Ergghhh....Carney saying he will need to cut interest rates. That announcement was a clear indication of things to come. You CorBrexers just ignore the facts. You stupidly look at one weeks trading on the footsie, ignoring even the collapse of sterling in the US.blackburn63 said:
And what is that evidence?ThomasNashe said:
Just a point of clarification on behalf of remainers like myself, because a lot of you seem to be getting confused about this: a big majority of us accept the result and don't want another referendum. We want the country to move forward and make the best deal it can. However, we are still entitled to point to evidence that shows that we would have been much better off voting to remain.blackburn63 said:
I have no interest in politicians from abroad, the electorate spoke and we're delighted. While you're wallowing in self pity the rest of us are getting on with life.SouthamObserver said:
, you should too.0 -
60,000 £3 joined last week, according to Newsnight. Who are they? Corbynites? I'm not so sure. Could be very angry Remainers, perhaps who have lapsed from Labour in recent years.SouthamObserver said:
I think Mike has called this completely wrong. Corbyn can haul in a lot more £3ers and the moronic Tory tendency will also participate. Corbyn is rock solid safe.Wulfrun_Phil said:Mike is wrong in the thread to describe Corbyn as "doomed" on the figures in this poll. He is still ahead of Eagle by 50% to 40% which must make him the favourite still.
What we can though say is that Labour members' attitudes have shifted significantly, something which until this poll was merely heresay. Eagle is in with a shout. 10% is a relatively small gap though. Reality may be a bit either way and in any case 10% could be closed in a campaign. A lot of members naturally rallied around the party leader once he was elected, regardless of who they voted for, and there may still be some of that instinct to defend any party leader in the figures, but once a leadership contest kicks off I think Corbyn's advantage there would dwindle. MPs will no doubt be communicating directly with party members in their own constituencies, with whom their views do carry some weight, and that could potentially shift opinion too.0 -
And those Tories might not be happy with Brexit?MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.0 -
IanB2 said:blackburn63 said:ThomasNashe said:
But look at the betting on the referendum: a cracking indicator of "where those with a bit more knowledge believe we may be heading", not! Seriously, diagnosis is one thing and prognosis another, and in the financial and economic arena no prognosis is reliably better than coin-tossing - and that is not a sneer at "experts", it's a thoroughly proven fact. If there isn't scaremongering going on, there is at least cherrypicking of imperfectly grasped facts - such as that stock indices and exchange rates are always changing (always look at a year's worth of chart before getting excited about a week's change), that a fall in the pound is not in itself an unalloyed disaster or a disaster at all, and that the mere possibility of interest rate cuts from 0.5% is not the best argument in the world for cleaving at all costs to the eurozone - interest rates 0.0% and predicted by the experts, for any expert-prediction-lovers out there, not to go up any time soon.blackburn63 said:
It's a fair point that the lower pound etc. are indicators, rather than evidence, but they are based on real flows of money and, like betting, indicate where those with a bit more knowledge believe we may be heading. Asking for "evidence" just a few days after the vote, and before anything has actually happened, is a bit naive. But there is already some anecdotal evidence you can pick up of contracts being cancelled, business decisions being reviewed etc. But most business takes time to work through investment choices, and these take time to impact on the real economy. Our most immediate challenge is that the UK now looks a lot less attractive a destination for inward investment.ThomasNashe said:
But you have failed to offer any evidence, you simply mention "likelihood"blackburn63 said:
This too is the fallacy of the leavers: label anything you don't like hearing, 'scaremongering'. Admittedly, and unfortunately, it did help win the vote - because it allowed you to discard any view that came from the mouth of an 'expert'.ThomasNashe said:
OK so no evidence just scaremongeringblackburn63 said:
snip to save spaceSouthamObserver said:blackburn63 said:@southam
You get worse, for everyone other than a few hysterical berks on the internet life goes on as normal, albeit with a broader smile on our faces.
A journo from something called Vice News rang me yesterday to say she'd heard the Jungle was moving from Calais to Dover. Has anybody ever heard such nonsense?0 -
Can i get this right.....Corbyn is hanging on (as leader of the labour party) so that he gets to condemn the party and its leader that took us into an illegal war.. the erm Labour party?
by the way 20 hours on and Goves actions already taking on that dead fish smell. Who will ever work with him again? Brexiteers getting taken down one by one as events will develop to make them look like swivel eyed loons. Reluctant remain looking the smartest - time to buy shares in Javed?0 -
0
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Will this be the same Mr Murdoch that the same Mr Campbell assiduously courted during his time in the New Labour project?Sandpit said:
Can MPs please not forget about Mr Campbell when they're making accusations in Parliament next Wednesday?AlastairMeeks said:
If you boiled down all the worst excesses of public life in a giant cauldron, Al Campbell would be the scum floating on the surface.0 -
But look at the betting on the referendum: a cracking indicator of "where those with a bit more knowledge believe we may be heading", not! Seriously, diagnosis is one thing and prognosis another, and in the financial and economic arena no prognosis is reliably better than coin-tossing - and that is not a sneer at "experts", it's a thoroughly proven fact. If there isn't scaremongering going on, there is at least cherrypicking of imperfectly grasped facts - such as that stock indices and exchange rates are always changing (always look at a year's worth of chart before getting excited about a week's change), that a fall in the pound is not in itself an unalloyed disaster or a disaster at all, and that the mere possibility of interest rate cuts from 0.5% is not the best argument in the world for cleaving at all costs to the eurozone - interest rates 0.0% and predicted by the experts, for any expert-prediction-lovers out there, not to go up any time soon.
[I hate the quoting system]0 -
I think we all know the answer to that one.FrankBooth said:Theresa May is against an early general election. I don't think the Tories want one. That might be a reason for Labour to hold off.
But for two things. Firstly, having your leader call his most electorally successful predecessor a war criminal would be an enormous embarrassment for the party. Secondly the deal we negotiate with the EU is critical to our future. It's not true that you can only achieve things in government. Ed Miliband pressured the Tories into various switches on policy. Bernie Sanders has done so with Hilary Clinton, at least in terms of her pitch. Labour needs to make sure that the government doesn't just do a deal with the EU to keep the city sweet. Is Corbyn capable of holding their feet to the fire?
0 -
From The Times, I suppose I'd be happy with a 33/1 winner instead of a 50/1 winner
Under the proposed exit plan, one of Mr Corbyn’s left-wing allies would be ensured a spot in a leadership race against a unity candidate. Clive Lewis, the MP for Norwich South and former BBC journalist, is being discussed as the most likely left-wing replacement. Mainstream figures involved in the plan would not accept allowing John McDonnell to run in Mr Corbyn’s place. The shadow chancellor, who is among those urging Mr Corbyn not to waver, is seen as too divisive.
0 -
No.FrankBooth said:Theresa May is against an early general election. I don't think the Tories want one. That might be a reason for Labour to hold off.
But for two things. Firstly, having your leader call his most electorally successful predecessor a war criminal would be an enormous embarrassment for the party. Secondly the deal we negotiate with the EU is critical to our future. It's not true that you can only achieve things in government. Ed Miliband pressured the Tories into various switches on policy. Bernie Sanders has done so with Hilary Clinton, at least in terms of her pitch. Labour needs to make sure that the government doesn't just do a deal with the EU to keep the city sweet. Is Corbyn capable of holding their feet to the fire?0 -
If the PLP realise McDonnell is the only alternative and they will have to, he may get the leadership unopposed. Like Corbyn he is hard left but he is at least competent, the PLP have no choice. Corbyn also got 40 MPs backing him in the confidence vote so the Corbyn and McDonnell base is still there in the PLPSouthamObserver said:
If Corbyn stands down all candidates to replace him would need to get sufficient nominations from the PLP and MEPs before they could stand. McDonnell will not get these. That's why Corbyn will not stand down. Corbyn will only resign when the Labour party's rules have been rewritten. For that he needs control of the NEC. He will go once that is secured. Labour is finished as a party of potential government. It is as simple as that. The majority of the membership is with Corbyn on this.HYUFD said:Corbyn's poll rating may have dipped with members but he still leads Eagle by 10% and Jarvis and Watson by more than that which suggests he is anything but doomed. If Eagle launches a challenge and Corbyn beats her with members, as this poll suggests he would, then he has renewed his mandate and is secure until the next election. This poll confirms McDonnell as the only plausible alternative to Corbyn, he is from the same wing of the party and the only alternative Corbyn might consider standing down for. Although McDonnell does not do as well with members as Corbyn the poll showed he would beat Dan Jarvis and if Corbyn backed him I think members would too. In 2003 IDS lost a vote of confidence amongst his MPs and was replaced by the right-wing, anti EU Michael Howard who was his Shadow Chancellor. The left-wing McDonnell is Corbyn's Shadow Chancellor. Could history be about to repeat itself only this time for Labour not the Tories?
0 -
I rather think you're missing the point that at any GE in the autumn the Lib Dems will be unequivocally standing with a policy to challenge Brexit. The Conservative party won't.MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
0 -
My MP says "Not legitimate to stand in a contest when you've had vote of No confidence, no Labour Group would accept that".SouthamObserver said:
I think Mike has called this completely wrong. Corbyn can haul in a lot more £3ers and the moronic Tory tendency will also participate. Corbyn is rock solid safe.Wulfrun_Phil said:Mike is wrong in the thread to describe Corbyn as "doomed" on the figures in this poll. He is still ahead of Eagle by 50% to 40% which must make him the favourite still.
What we can though say is that Labour members' attitudes have shifted significantly, something which until this poll was merely heresay. Eagle is in with a shout. 10% is a relatively small gap though. Reality may be a bit either way and in any case 10% could be closed in a campaign. A lot of members naturally rallied around the party leader once he was elected, regardless of who they voted for, and there may still be some of that instinct to defend any party leader in the figures, but once a leadership contest kicks off I think Corbyn's advantage there would dwindle. MPs will no doubt be communicating directly with party members in their own constituencies, with whom their views do carry some weight, and that could potentially shift opinion too.
When i asked him if the same applied if Chesterfielld Labour Party passed a vote of no confidence in its MP would he resign, he declined to comment
0 -
How pissed off are the left going to be if the tories have two women leaders and PMs before they've even had one?0
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Mr Claypole, That's not the reason but it is a bonus for hin.
Thamr-claypole said:Can i get this right.....Corbyn is hanging on (as leader of the labour party) so that he gets to condemn the party and its leader that took us into an illegal war.. the erm Labour party?
by the way 20 hours on and Goves actions already taking on that dead fish smell. Who will ever work with him again? Brexiteers getting taken down one by one as events will develop to make them look like swivel eyed loons. Reluctant remain looking the smartest - time to buy shares in Javed?mr-claypole said:Can i get this right.....Corbyn is hanging on (as leader of the labour party) so that he gets to condemn the party and its leader that took us into an illegal war.. the erm Labour party?
by the way 20 hours on and Goves actions already taking on that dead fish smell. Who will ever work with him again? Brexiteers getting taken down one by one as events will develop to make them look like swivel eyed loons. Reluctant remain looking the smartest - time to buy shares in Javed?0 -
I expect they will still be Tories come the election, whenever that is.FrankBooth said:
And those Tories might not be happy with Brexit?MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Libdems who get all dewy-eyed at their prospects of regaining seats now lost should take a look at how Newbury has fared for them.0 -
My anecdotal experience suggests that they are quite evenly divided between the two groups.rottenborough said:
60,000 £3 joined last week, according to Newsnight. Who are they? Corbynites? I'm not so sure. Could be very angry Remainers, perhaps who have lapsed from Labour in recent years.SouthamObserver said:
I think Mike has called this completely wrong. Corbyn can haul in a lot more £3ers and the moronic Tory tendency will also participate. Corbyn is rock solid safe.Wulfrun_Phil said:Mike is wrong in the thread to describe Corbyn as "doomed" on the figures in this poll. He is still ahead of Eagle by 50% to 40% which must make him the favourite still.
What we can though say is that Labour members' attitudes have shifted significantly, something which until this poll was merely heresay. Eagle is in with a shout. 10% is a relatively small gap though. Reality may be a bit either way and in any case 10% could be closed in a campaign. A lot of members naturally rallied around the party leader once he was elected, regardless of who they voted for, and there may still be some of that instinct to defend any party leader in the figures, but once a leadership contest kicks off I think Corbyn's advantage there would dwindle. MPs will no doubt be communicating directly with party members in their own constituencies, with whom their views do carry some weight, and that could potentially shift opinion too.0 -
Jeremy is a good, decent man ...
https://twitter.com/andrewspoooner/status/7487451047230545960 -
Bottlers. But if Lewis is competent and acceptable to the left, it works for everyone.TheScreamingEagles said:From The Times, I suppose I'd be happy with a 33/1 winner instead of a 50/1 winner
Under the proposed exit plan, one of Mr Corbyn’s left-wing allies would be ensured a spot in a leadership race against a unity candidate. Clive Lewis, the MP for Norwich South and former BBC journalist, is being discussed as the most likely left-wing replacement. Mainstream figures involved in the plan would not accept allowing John McDonnell to run in Mr Corbyn’s place. The shadow chancellor, who is among those urging Mr Corbyn not to waver, is seen as too divisive.0 -
Yet more Tories wanting Corbyn to remain in situ. ?rottenborough said:
60,000 £3 joined last week, according to Newsnight. Who are they? Corbynites? I'm not so sure. Could be very angry Remainers, perhaps who have lapsed from Labour in recent years.SouthamObserver said:
I think Mike has called this completely wrong. Corbyn can haul in a lot more £3ers and the moronic Tory tendency will also participate. Corbyn is rock solid safe.Wulfrun_Phil said:Mike is wrong in the thread to describe Corbyn as "doomed" on the figures in this poll. He is still ahead of Eagle by 50% to 40% which must make him the favourite still.
What we can though say is that Labour members' attitudes have shifted significantly, something which until this poll was merely heresay. Eagle is in with a shout. 10% is a relatively small gap though. Reality may be a bit either way and in any case 10% could be closed in a campaign. A lot of members naturally rallied around the party leader once he was elected, regardless of who they voted for, and there may still be some of that instinct to defend any party leader in the figures, but once a leadership contest kicks off I think Corbyn's advantage there would dwindle. MPs will no doubt be communicating directly with party members in their own constituencies, with whom their views do carry some weight, and that could potentially shift opinion too.0 -
Serves Labour right for being stacked full of misogynists....Slackbladder said:How pissed off are the left going to be if the tories have two women leaders and PMs before they've even had one?
*ducks for cover...*0 -
Sadly it is also deeply racist.HYUFD said:
Culturally New Zealand is closer to the UK than any nation on earth, including Australia but Australia has a warmer and sunnier climate and a higher average incomeSouthamObserver said:
NZ is wonderful if you have a bit of money. The top of the South Island around Nelson - where my brother lives - is paradise. Doctors and others working in essential professions have it all. But it's a tough place to build a future in if you don't have such skills. Lots of kiwis emigrate to Australia these days, I think.foxinsoxuk said:
I have been canvassed for a job in NZ. Smallish city with good climate and the great outdoors on the doorstep.Tim_B said:
Nuts - come on back home to Georgia: the weather's better and it's much cheaper.foxinsoxuk said:
I couldn't agree more. The future looks bleak.SouthamObserver said:
And at a time when the Tories are hugely vulnerable. The next Chancellor will be raising taxes and/or making even deeper spending cuts; while the Brexit deal is unlikely to bring immigration down in any significant way. What Tory Leavers promised voters is not going to happen. And Tory Leavers are likely to be a majority in May's cabinet. Can you imagine what a credible opposition could do with a Leave-dominated Treasury team, or defence team, or Home Office, or MoD? It would be open goal after open goal. Instead, Corbyn will give them a free pass and the green light to agree a Brexit deal that harms millions of ordinary people.foxinsoxuk said:On topic:
I would like to see Corbyn go the same way he got in.
Without being voted out by the membership there will always be a feeling of betrayal or stab in the back.
If the membership re-elects Corbyn then it is the end of Labour as a potential alternative.government. We would have a defacto one party state, albeit one party with its own internal opposition.
If I were younger, I would emigrate, but at my age I just have to put up with it as best that I can.
A bit too much sunshine and optimism for me, you can only stand so much of that cr@p!
I like life with a bit of an edge and the possibility of misery. It is what keeps me here.0 -
Dustbyn0
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Do any of you honestly think 60,000 people will sign up to a political party to vote for Angela Eagle ?
Stop Trump all over again.0 -
Indeed. Harpy Harperson will be hillarious to watch! Obviously the two Tory wimmin PMs will be the wrong kind of wimmin.Slackbladder said:How pissed off are the left going to be if the tories have two women leaders and PMs before they've even had one?
0 -
Can't begin negotiations without triggering Article 50. Was she in favour of that?anotherDave said:
One interesting thing from Ms Leadsom's ITV bit this morning. She wanted Cameron to stay, to have avoided the current uncertainly. Ideally he would have appointed a Leaver to head and begin negotiations ASAP.MikeK said:
You've been wrong before, David - we all have - and you may be wrong again, in this instance junior and inexperienced count for less than commitment to Brexit.david_herdson said:
ConHome is not a good reflection of Tory Party members' views. Leadsom is too junior, too inexperienced and too hectoring. May will run on 'a safe pair of hands for difficult times' and that will be enough.IanB2 said:
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.Sandpit said:
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there.SquareRoot said:mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
(Both May and Leadsom have advocated a specific minister/department to deal with EU-UK deal. Leadsom said deputy PM in her LBC interview.)0 -
I love Clive Lewis.kle4 said:
Bottlers. But if Lewis is competent and acceptable to the left, it works for everyone.TheScreamingEagles said:From The Times, I suppose I'd be happy with a 33/1 winner instead of a 50/1 winner
Under the proposed exit plan, one of Mr Corbyn’s left-wing allies would be ensured a spot in a leadership race against a unity candidate. Clive Lewis, the MP for Norwich South and former BBC journalist, is being discussed as the most likely left-wing replacement. Mainstream figures involved in the plan would not accept allowing John McDonnell to run in Mr Corbyn’s place. The shadow chancellor, who is among those urging Mr Corbyn not to waver, is seen as too divisive.
A Labour candidate has apologised for “getting carried away with colourful metaphors” by making a joke about being caught in a threesome with Ed Miliband and a goat.
Clive Lewis, who is standing in Norwich South, made the comments during an interview with the New Statesman after being asked about his chances in the forthcoming elections.
"I mean, in the multiverse there's still three universes in a hundred where there's a Green MP in Norwich, so anything could happen,” he said.
"I could be caught with my pants down behind a goat with Ed Miliband at the other end - well, hopefully that won't happen."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/labour-candidate-apologises-for-joking-about-threesome-with-ed-miliband-and-a-goat-we-all-have-10185351.html0 -
Mr. Claypole, I hope you're right. I put a smidgen on Gove to finish last in the first round at 20/1 on Ladbrokes.
It won't be May, and Crabb's got a reasonable number of MPs on-side. Leadsom appears to be the favoured Leaver. Fox, as usual, may bugger things up, but if it's a two horse race for least popular man, Gove might win [as it were].0 -
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The symbolism of Gove opting to go over the top at 11am, given the Somme remembrance, seems entirely appropriate.
A minute silence for his political ambitions is in keeping. After which there will be the sound of many raspberries being fired off.
Let us hope Mrs May uses her new authority as PM to sack Gove from the cabinet. Shafting a colleague and showing a devastating lack of judgement should not be seen to be rewarded.0 -
Mmm. I reckon he'll still be there in 2020 but would like to get paid out at the end of September!MattW said:
You can Dutch it or go for the Next Quarter.Sandpit said:
Any way to lay that? If he announces he's standing down tomorrow it will take until Q4 (1st October) to hold the formal contest. Unless he was to do an Ed and just walk away of course.MattW said:Hmmm.
Corbyn to Step Down Q3 2016 1.72 @ Paddy.
Q4 is 6.5.
Q1 2017 is 13.
"Singles Only. Applies to the date that Jeremy Corbyn formally steps down as Labour Party leader. PP decision final in settlement." (Whatever that means :-).
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2602889 0 -
But there won't be an autumn election, as likely next PM May has said.Monksfield said:
I rather think you're missing the point that at any GE in the autumn the Lib Dems will be unequivocally standing with a policy to challenge Brexit. The Conservative party won't.MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Good luck to the LibDems in 2020 running on a rejoin the EU ticket - complete with the Euro and Schengen. It won't happen, will it? No. In which case the LibDem position will have been a very temporary one.
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And how are they going to feel with Vodafone making loud noises about moving over the Channel?MarqueeMark said:
I expect they will still be Tories come the election, whenever that is.FrankBooth said:
And those Tories might not be happy with Brexit?MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Libdems who get all dewy-eyed at their prospects of regaining seats now lost should take a look at how Newbury has fared for them.
In PBToryworld nothing can ever go wrong for the Tories....0 -
You can't begin formal negotiations. You can have nation state level talks to get a rough outline, and highlight any red lines.FrankBooth said:
Can't begin negotiations without triggering Article 50. Was she in favour of that?anotherDave said:
One interesting thing from Ms Leadsom's ITV bit this morning. She wanted Cameron to stay, to have avoided the current uncertainly. Ideally he would have appointed a Leaver to head and begin negotiations ASAP.MikeK said:
You've been wrong before, David - we all have - and you may be wrong again, in this instance junior and inexperienced count for less than commitment to Brexit.david_herdson said:
ConHome is not a good reflection of Tory Party members' views. Leadsom is too junior, too inexperienced and too hectoring. May will run on 'a safe pair of hands for difficult times' and that will be enough.IanB2 said:
Reading ConHome Leadsom is clearly starting to gather up the 'anyone but May' vote, and a lot of Tories cannot see past May's nominal support for Remain. Gove is tainted by the smell of the assassin, which probably suits him fine as I am convinced he never stopped not wanting the job anyway. His main constituency appears to be die hard Leavers who think Boris got what he deserved for imminent betrayal.Sandpit said:
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there.SquareRoot said:mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
It will be interesting to see what Gove's payoff might be, and from whom! Given that Fox is seen as nutty even by Tory standards, and with a chequered past, and Crabb is too young and offering a mix of one-nation economics coupled with some very socially-conservative views (plus all the religious stuff), I suspect Iain Dale is right that the members will have the choice of two women. So it is May's to lose, and past precedent suggests Leadsom may have a chance.
(Both May and Leadsom have advocated a specific minister/department to deal with EU-UK deal. Leadsom said deputy PM in her LBC interview.)0 -
Given part of her pitch will be 'steady as she goes' I presume there won't be that many changes. Which is a shame. Although I think Cameron has been right to not chop and change it'd be interesting to see new faces. I still expect more leavers get top jobs but not too many.JackW said:The symbolism of Gove opting to go over the top at 11am, given the Somme remembrance, seems entirely appropriate.
A minute silence for his political ambitions is in keeping. After which there will be the sound of many raspberries being fired off.
Let us hope Mrs May uses her new authority as PM to sack Gove from the cabinet. Shafting a colleague and showing a devastating lack of judgement should not be seen to be rewarded.0 -
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories. And, reasonably enough, they will be blamed for all the disasters that are about to occur. They should have had a plan for dealing with the consequences, other than just running away from the problem.MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
On top of that, a lot of people who normally vote Lib Dem were terrorised into voting Tory at the last election, as you very well know. So with no immediate threat of a Labour government, and the SNP unable to increase their number of MPs, it seems very likely that previously Lib Dem voters will return. As they are doing in laarge numbers - 12,000 new Lib Dem members since the Referendum. How many new members have the Tories recruited recently???0 -
@HYUFD
I would expect quite a bit of slippage from that 40, in terms of nominations. I think if/when Corbyn goes the pressure is off and the likes of Thornberry and the loyalist metropolitan liberal wing of the party would not nominate a lefty. I think Corbyn and JM would fail to reach that the threshold, and they know it. Hence why Milne is refusing to let Corbyn resign.0 -
Re interest rates.
There will be then be some high volume whinging from pensioners that their government guaranteed cash savings do not generate the return they think that it should. The Telegraph will be comically conflicted.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_LeadsomDearPB said:
I think the Party will consider her professional experience prior to Parliament sufficient to match May's political experience.rottenborough said:
Leadsom does have the feel of the dark horse he steals away with the party membership at the end, but, I think this time there is a general feeling that the country needs a firm grip and experience - I have no idea, but suspect (hope) that Tory members will feel the same way.Sandpit said:
I can't think of any, while their party was in government. Plenty from opposition of course, Cameron and Blair being the two most recent examples.SquareRoot said:
How many 20th/21st century PM's have become so straight from being an MP without ever holding a cabinet or shadow cabinet post?Sandpit said:
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there.SquareRoot said:mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Of course, there is speculation that there wont be a ballot as May will sweep up all the MPs in their ballots.
Its impressive
Leadsom worked in the financial sector for BZW, Barclays Bank – where she was Financial Institutions Director from 1993 to 1997 – and was Managing Director of De Putron Fund Management (DPFM) between 1997 and 1999. She was Head of Corporate Governance and Senior Investment Officer at Invesco Perpetual from 1999 to 2009.[1][7]0 -
I think will struggle to get past first round. The depths of the treachery are too great. And he has said on several occasions that he "does not have what it takes to be PM". Suddenly he does.kle4 said:Mr Claypole, That's not the reason but it is a bonus for hin.
Thamr-claypole said:Can i get this right.....Corbyn is hanging on (as leader of the labour party) so that he gets to condemn the party and its leader that took us into an illegal war.. the erm Labour party?
by the way 20 hours on and Goves actions already taking on that dead fish smell. Who will ever work with him again? Brexiteers getting taken down one by one as events will develop to make them look like swivel eyed loons. Reluctant remain looking the smartest - time to buy shares in Javed?mr-claypole said:Can i get this right.....Corbyn is hanging on (as leader of the labour party) so that he gets to condemn the party and its leader that took us into an illegal war.. the erm Labour party?
by the way 20 hours on and Goves actions already taking on that dead fish smell. Who will ever work with him again? Brexiteers getting taken down one by one as events will develop to make them look like swivel eyed loons. Reluctant remain looking the smartest - time to buy shares in Javed?0 -
They're trying to latch on to the 48 remain support so they can increase their base. If that can go from 5 to 10 with such a policy, they hope picking up at GE, that'd be good for them. Nothing else has worked.MarqueeMark said:
But there won't be an autumn election, as likely next PM May has said.Monksfield said:
I rather think you're missing the point that at any GE in the autumn the Lib Dems will be unequivocally standing with a policy to challenge Brexit. The Conservative party won't.MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Good luck to the LibDems in 2020 running on a rejoin the EU ticket - complete with the Euro and Schengen. It won't happen, will it? No. In which case the LibDem position will have been a very temporary one.
And May's comments mean nothing. Cameron said he wouldn't resign. I don't think either party wants a ge right now so it won't happen, but if they changed their minds or even think now it might be a good idea, you wouldn't say so.now, disrupting things.0 -
I understand Tory recruiting is going along quite nicely.PClipp said:
Except, Mr Mark, that the shambles arising from the Leave triumph is all due to the Tories. And, reasonably enough, they will be blamed for all the disasters that are about to occur. They should have had a plan for dealing with the consequences, other than just running away from the problem.MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
On top of that, a lot of people who normally vote Lib Dem were terrorised into voting Tory at the last election, as you very well know. So with no immediate threat of a Labour government, and the SNP unable to increase their number of MPs, it seems very likely that previously Lib Dem voters will return. As they are doing in laarge numbers - 12,000 new Lib Dem members since the Referendum. How many new members have the Tories recruited recently???
And the SNP will still have a block of 50 or so seats after the next election. The Labour Leader peering out of Salmonds pocket still stands. Even more so if it is Corbyn...0 -
All useful stuff, but politics is completely different. Cabinet, for sure. PM? Not yet.PlatoSaid said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_LeadsomDearPB said:
I think the Party will consider her professional experience prior to Parliament sufficient to match May's political experience.rottenborough said:
Leadsom does have the feel of the dark horse he steals away with the party membership at the end, but, I think this time there is a general feeling that the country needs a firm grip and experience - I have no idea, but suspect (hope) that Tory members will feel the same way.Sandpit said:
I can't think of any, while their party was in government. Plenty from opposition of course, Cameron and Blair being the two most recent examples.SquareRoot said:
How many 20th/21st century PM's have become so straight from being an MP without ever holding a cabinet or shadow cabinet post?Sandpit said:
Leadsom's never even been a Cabinet member, bit of a jump to go straight in as PM from there.SquareRoot said:mrs May is now at 70% on that link two threads ago. looks like May v Leasdom.(17%)
That said, she's second favourite on Betfair at 5 (4/1), May at 1.43 (4/9), Gove at 9, Crabb at 30 and Fox at 60.
Some muppets still have cash available to lay Boris, albeit at 300.
Of course, there is speculation that there wont be a ballot as May will sweep up all the MPs in their ballots.
Its impressive
Leadsom worked in the financial sector for BZW, Barclays Bank – where she was Financial Institutions Director from 1993 to 1997 – and was Managing Director of De Putron Fund Management (DPFM) between 1997 and 1999. She was Head of Corporate Governance and Senior Investment Officer at Invesco Perpetual from 1999 to 2009.[1][7]0 -
From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.0 -
Very much a case of taking one for the team.TheScreamingEagles said:From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.0 -
If Corbyn resigns does the Harman rule apply so that only women can run?0
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Presumably quite a number of members wanted to vote for Boris, now they wont be able to.TheScreamingEagles said:From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
What prompted Boris to not carry on?0 -
I assumed knifing Boris was one last olive branch to Cameron for their friendship.tlg86 said:
Very much a case of taking one for the team.TheScreamingEagles said:From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
0 -
I very much suspect that this is true (as a Tory Association Deputy Chairman); there's been too many WWII metaphors over the last couple of months for my liking, but Gove set off on a kamikaze mission yesterday - he destroyed Johnson but he won't survive.TheScreamingEagles said:From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.0 -
Doesn't stop the belief that cash savings, guaranteed by the state, should generate a return of 5% + RPI.Alistair said:
Triple lock.matt said:Re interest rates.
There will be then be some high volume whinging from pensioners that their government guaranteed cash savings do not generate the return they think that it should. The Telegraph will be comically conflicted.0 -
If we do - and it's looking likely, it'll be most amusing. What I like most about this Tory election is that we aren't judging the runners by their sex or who they sleep with or whatever identity politics -ism. It's down to competence and policy viewpoints.Slackbladder said:How pissed off are the left going to be if the tories have two women leaders and PMs before they've even had one?
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Have you read Max Hastings in today's Mail - extraordinary!rottenborough said:
Presumably quite a number of members wanted to vote for Boris, now they wont be able to.TheScreamingEagles said:From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
What prompted Boris to not carry on?0 -
Indeed – although I’m not entirely sure which team it was.tlg86 said:
Very much a case of taking one for the team.TheScreamingEagles said:From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.0 -
If we say it often enough, maybe it'll be true...PlatoSaid said:
If we do - and it's looking likely, it'll be most amusing. What I like most about this Tory election is that we aren't judging the runners by their sex or who they sleep with or whatever identity politics -ism. It's down to competence and policy viewpoints.Slackbladder said:How pissed off are the left going to be if the tories have two women leaders and PMs before they've even had one?
0 -
Yep. He has kept Boris away from No.10, his work is done.tlg86 said:
Very much a case of taking one for the team.TheScreamingEagles said:From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.0 -
I know it's difficult for us hard-bitten cynics who bet on politics to accept, but perhaps many LibDem activists actually do believe in the EU, warts and all, the whole caboodle?kle4 said:
They're trying to latch on to the 48 remain support so they can increase their base. If that can go from 5 to 10 with such a policy, they hope picking up at GE, that'd be good for them. Nothing else has worked.MarqueeMark said:
But there won't be an autumn election, as likely next PM May has said.Monksfield said:
I rather think you're missing the point that at any GE in the autumn the Lib Dems will be unequivocally standing with a policy to challenge Brexit. The Conservative party won't.MarqueeMark said:
Those seats voted Remain because the Tories there voted Remain. I wouldn't get your hopes up....Monksfield said:Great council result for the yellows in Leatherhead.
I suspect if (and obviously that's a big if) there's a GE this year, they could well win back REMAIN seats like Oxford W, Cheltenham, Twickenham and Bath.
Good luck to the LibDems in 2020 running on a rejoin the EU ticket - complete with the Euro and Schengen. It won't happen, will it? No. In which case the LibDem position will have been a very temporary one.
And May's comments mean nothing. Cameron said he wouldn't resign. I don't think either party wants a ge right now so it won't happen, but if they changed their minds or even think now it might be a good idea, you wouldn't say so.now, disrupting things.
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He knew the economic problems Brexit is going to throw up and he didn't fancy delivering on that.rottenborough said:
Presumably quite a number of members wanted to vote for Boris, now they wont be able to.TheScreamingEagles said:From Mr Burdett, occasionally of this parish, and is Chairman of Broxbourne Tories.
@toryjim: Those who think Gove has a hope in hell of being leader should speak to Tory members. Many no longer want him in govt. He's trashed himself.
What prompted Boris to not carry on?
Did he really want to be the Prime Minister that damages the City of London by screwing them on the financial passport ?0 -
Better to make him Minister for Brexit to deliver the bullshit from the Vote Leave manifesto. Give him just enough rope.JackW said:The symbolism of Gove opting to go over the top at 11am, given the Somme remembrance, seems entirely appropriate.
A minute silence for his political ambitions is in keeping. After which there will be the sound of many raspberries being fired off.
Let us hope Mrs May uses her new authority as PM to sack Gove from the cabinet. Shafting a colleague and showing a devastating lack of judgement should not be seen to be rewarded.0
