politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just months before the US looks set to elect a female Presi
Comments
-
Is Eagle a pretty much a sure thing (c. 90% likelihood) or am I completely misreading the situation?0
-
And you believed them? Bless.surbiton said:
Is she saying that there will be informal discussions before ? The EU has flatly said there won't be.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May says: Brexit means Brexit
Theresa May, outlining her Conservative and prime ministerial leadership challenge says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
The home secretary says there should be no attempts to renege on that verdict and there should be no general election until 2020 and no emergency budget.
There should be no decision to invoke article 50 before the end of this year when Britain's negotiating terms are clear, she says.
There should be no change in Britain's trading arrangements with the EU or the legal status of overseas people living in the UK changed.0 -
That is brutal. Did Boris not guarantee him the Treasury? Foolish if he didn't.SimonStClare said:Sparrow, snap analysis: - Last week Michael Gove’s Vote Leave campaign ended the career of David Cameron - a man that Gove has counted as a close friend for more than a decade.
Today the Gove career-destroying machine has turned on Boris Johnson, who until about half an hour ago was the favourite to win the Conservative leadership. Gove, who is respected by colleagues, Tory members and the media, has just published a damning character reference about the man with whom he jointly ran the victorious Vote Leave campaign. Here it is again:
" I respect and admire all the candidates running for the leadership. In particular, I wanted to help build a team behindBoris Johnson so that a politician who argued for leaving the European Union could lead us to a better future.
But I have come, reluctantly, to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead."
Bojo is shafted.0 -
Where does May stand on Heathrow ?0
-
Wonderful stuff from Ms May re Johnson's negotiating skills with Europe."Last time he negotiated a deal with the Germans he came back with 3 second-hand water cannon" which he couldn't use and Londoners are still paying for.
Ouch!0 -
RochdalePioneers said:
Must thank Armando Iannouchi - this new live daily version of The Thick Of It is the best ever
0 -
I see the French finance minister has said that freedom of movement should be on the table at the negotiations. Perhaps those on here who are so certain of what can and cannot be achieved may not be correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/freedom-of-movement-reform-on-the-table-for-brexit-talks-suggest/0 -
Heh. In fairness I have tipped Gove [at 80/1] & May [at 10/1] too.Pulpstar said:
" take any odds available on Boris. Might even be a coronation"TheScreamingEagles said:
Gove is very publicly voicing the doubts many Tories hold privately about Boris.Pulpstar said:Does this really kill off Boris ?
I'm not so sure.
That's not good for Boris
"Take the 7-4 on Osborne" >.>0 -
I doubt any government has ever had a stronger mandate irrespective of the leader; the General Election, the EU referendum and Scottish referendum.
The direction from here to 2020 has been given by the electorate.
0 -
I think the sensible money has to be on May, now.
Serious. Punchy. Credible. Sprinkled with humour. A glint in the eye.
Very impressive.0 -
I think it's hard to see how she get's Brexit done with a Con majority of 12.Jonathan said:May was impressive. Ticked all the boxes. An interesting prospect.
The main weakness is that she wants no GE and will take the same route as Gordon Brown took in 2007.
The next four years will be tough, managing that as an "unelected PM", without a personal mandate will be tough.
Might be saying no election for two reasons
1. To keep markets calm.
2. To keep Con MP's calm.
We'll see if that line holds to the autumn.0 -
Yep. Master class in action. Years of preparation by a professional.Richard_Nabavi said:Things seem to be moving at a dizzying pace, but Theresa May's speech leaps out of the chaos as the first, and so far only, serious plan by a grown-up.
0 -
Floater said:
“First, Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high, and the public gave their verdict. There must be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to rejoin it through the backdoor, and no second referendum. The country voted to leave the European Union, and it is the duty of the government and Parliament to make sure we do just that.”
Bravo Mrs May.
0 -
No - she's saying that we need time to discuss amongst ourselves what we want in detail and advise the NZ negotiators of our position.surbiton said:
Is she saying that there will be informal discussions before ? The EU has flatly said there won't be.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May says: Brexit means Brexit
Theresa May, outlining her Conservative and prime ministerial leadership challenge says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
The home secretary says there should be no attempts to renege on that verdict and there should be no general election until 2020 and no emergency budget.
There should be no decision to invoke article 50 before the end of this year when Britain's negotiating terms are clear, she says.
There should be no change in Britain's trading arrangements with the EU or the legal status of overseas people living in the UK changed.0 -
No, I suspect she’s saying that her in charge the Govt will sort out what it thinks is a reasonable negotiating position, with pre-planned fall-backs in it’s back pocket, and only then write the Article 50 letter.surbiton said:
Is she saying that there will be informal discussions before ? The EU has flatly said there won't be.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May says: Brexit means Brexit
Theresa May, outlining her Conservative and prime ministerial leadership challenge says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
The home secretary says there should be no attempts to renege on that verdict and there should be no general election until 2020 and no emergency budget.
There should be no decision to invoke article 50 before the end of this year when Britain's negotiating terms are clear, she says.
There should be no change in Britain's trading arrangements with the EU or the legal status of overseas people living in the UK changed.0 -
Standing back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.0
-
I'm bury resigning from the Shadow Cabinet I was appointed yesterday. But as I finished to draft my "Jeremy you are a man of great principle, but fuc* off now" letter (obviously with whole paragraph unaligned, random spaces between sentences and so on), I will launch my Tory leadership bid.JohnO said:
According to Guido, AndreaParma. sorry Leadsom, is also throwing her hat into the ring.
0 -
I think it's more that Gove believes that Boris will water down the pure wine of a Brexit in favour of some fudge or other. Destroying Boris is just a desirable second order effect.DavidL said:
That is brutal. Did Boris not guarantee him the Treasury? Foolish if he didn't.SimonStClare said:Sparrow, snap analysis: - Last week Michael Gove’s Vote Leave campaign ended the career of David Cameron - a man that Gove has counted as a close friend for more than a decade.
Today the Gove career-destroying machine has turned on Boris Johnson, who until about half an hour ago was the favourite to win the Conservative leadership. Gove, who is respected by colleagues, Tory members and the media, has just published a damning character reference about the man with whom he jointly ran the victorious Vote Leave campaign. Here it is again:
" I respect and admire all the candidates running for the leadership. In particular, I wanted to help build a team behindBoris Johnson so that a politician who argued for leaving the European Union could lead us to a better future.
But I have come, reluctantly, to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead."
Bojo is shafted.0 -
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
0 -
Negotiating with the EU has been ruled out by the EU. I don't know whether negotiating with EFTA has been ruled out by EFTA, which is something completely different.OldKingCole said:
No, I suspect she’s saying that her in charge the Govt will sort out what it thinks is a reasonable negotiating position, with pre-planned fall-backs in it’s back pocket, and only then write the Article 50 letter.surbiton said:
Is she saying that there will be informal discussions before ? The EU has flatly said there won't be.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May says: Brexit means Brexit
Theresa May, outlining her Conservative and prime ministerial leadership challenge says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
The home secretary says there should be no attempts to renege on that verdict and there should be no general election until 2020 and no emergency budget.
There should be no decision to invoke article 50 before the end of this year when Britain's negotiating terms are clear, she says.
There should be no change in Britain's trading arrangements with the EU or the legal status of overseas people living in the UK changed.0 -
With all these Tory leadership candidates, maybe they could loan one or two to Labour? They seem to be short of them when they need them.0
-
Comment of the day so far.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
I have a feeling Boris not standing might be the tactical choice. The stop May choice, even.0 -
No, I don't think that's true, but I will conduct 'soundings' from around the patch.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
0 -
I've been betting on this market since 2006, I think I've backed everyone at some point. Except Boris, I've been laying him like one of many mistresses.Mortimer said:
Insufficiently smug - you need to be bragging about left-field predictions like that.TheScreamingEagles said:
YupMortimer said:TSE - didn't you write a thread about this?
I wonder if Boris even runs now....
Hope you backed it?0 -
Good solid speech. No change to trading arrangements means free movement continues. OK with me, but may not be universally popular.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May says: Brexit means Brexit
Theresa May, outlining her Conservative and prime ministerial leadership challenge says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
The home secretary says there should be no attempts to renege on that verdict and there should be no general election until 2020 and no emergency budget.
There should be no decision to invoke article 50 before the end of this year when Britain's negotiating terms are clear, she says.
There should be no change in Britain's trading arrangements with the EU or the legal status of overseas people living in the UK changed.0 -
I have first hand experience of French employment laws, honestly, such a disincentive to take staff on.Sandpit said:
That's also a good point. Most of the businesses that pay the very high salaries and bonuses are very performance-oriented with lots of hiring and firing. What would attract them to a country where not only are income taxes on high earners massive, but it's almost impossible to fire anyone?Floater said:
People also appear to be forgetting employment laws in France.ManWithThePlan said:I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.
I am sure dynamic businesses paying huge salaries will love that environment...........0 -
I will be very conflicted on May v Gove.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
0 -
Given that the only thing a general election will do is destroy the labour party at the cost of introducing some (probably mad) UKIP MPs what would be achieved by holding one?Jonathan said:May was impressive. Ticked all the boxes. An interesting prospect.
The main weakness is that she wants no GE and will take the same route as Gordon Brown took in 2007.
The next four years will be tough, managing that as an "unelected PM", without a personal mandate will be tough.
Better to hold your nose and use what's available to you to avoid one. And if needs must bring in 1 or 2 experts from elsewhere to pacify everyone...0 -
Subtle message from Teresa May wearing Government Tartan.0
-
There are 170+ other nations that we can commence discussions with even if the EU will not meet. What is the real probability of no backroom discussion with EU leaders?surbiton said:
Is she saying that there will be informal discussions before ? The EU has flatly said there won't be.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May says: Brexit means Brexit
Theresa May, outlining her Conservative and prime ministerial leadership challenge says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
The home secretary says there should be no attempts to renege on that verdict and there should be no general election until 2020 and no emergency budget.
There should be no decision to invoke article 50 before the end of this year when Britain's negotiating terms are clear, she says.
There should be no change in Britain's trading arrangements with the EU or the legal status of overseas people living in the UK changed.0 -
Well, having stabbed Boris in the back will have changed things. Gove has a stall he didn't have before.JohnO said:
No, I don't think that's true, but I will conduct 'soundings' from around the patch.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
It is certainly more difficult to attack Gove compared to Johnson, if you're May.
0 -
I can see May changing the whole EU attitude to free movement.0
-
In truth nobody knows. Either side are going to quote people that suit there side of the argument. Every news outlet is carrying at least 2 or 3 contradictory opinions from EU politicians. Opinion within the other 27 EU countries will range from "give them everything they want" to "bring them to their knees".HurstLlama said:I see the French finance minister has said that freedom of movement should be on the table at the negotiations. Perhaps those on here who are so certain of what can and cannot be achieved may not be correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/freedom-of-movement-reform-on-the-table-for-brexit-talks-suggest/
We won't even know till September what sort of Brexit we are going to ask for let alone whether we stand any chance of getting it.0 -
*Theresa!dr_spyn said:Subtle message from Teresa May wearing Government Tartan.
0 -
No sensible person would lay down hard and fast rules at this stage. On the British side, we have no idea as to who will lead the negotiations.HurstLlama said:I see the French finance minister has said that freedom of movement should be on the table at the negotiations. Perhaps those on here who are so certain of what can and cannot be achieved may not be correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/freedom-of-movement-reform-on-the-table-for-brexit-talks-suggest/
0 -
There is enough chaos without having a GE. Wilson handed over to Callaghan. That's how it works in UK.eek said:
Given that the only thing a general election will do is destroy the labour party at the cost of introducing some (probably mad) UKIP MPs what would be achieved by holding one?Jonathan said:May was impressive. Ticked all the boxes. An interesting prospect.
The main weakness is that she wants no GE and will take the same route as Gordon Brown took in 2007.
The next four years will be tough, managing that as an "unelected PM", without a personal mandate will be tough.
Better to hold your nose and use what's available to you to avoid one. And if needs must bring in 1 or 2 experts from elsewhere to pacify everyone...0 -
Indeed. Teresa May is a porn star.TheWhiteRabbit said:
*Theresa!dr_spyn said:Subtle message from Teresa May wearing Government Tartan.
0 -
@MrHarryCole: There's the clip: "I'm Theresa May and I'm the best person to be Prime Minister."0
-
Don't be, May will deliver the referendum result, but she won't do so in a way that destroys our businesses and employment. We can fix the issue of mass immigration on this side of the fence by reforming benefits and education. If you are a Tory you must believe in supply side reforms rather than consumer side restrictions, ending free movement is a restriction on the consumer side which will damage our economy and create mass labour shortages.Tissue_Price said:
I will be very conflicted on May v Gove.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
0 -
By being flakey on immigration controls Boris has blown his chances of being PM.
As a result Gove has to stand and that blows the chances of any Brexit candidate winning.
May is only committed to "more control" over immigration not an Australian points system. So May is also flakey on immigration controls.
0 -
i'm not making many shrewd political betting calls recently but Boris price now looks value to me and May shouldn't be odds on. It will be May versus ANOTHER and she still has to beat the ANOTHER in the membership ballot.
I've backed Boris! 6.4-6.6.0 -
May is vulnerable on immigration.David_Evershed said:By being flakey on immigration controls Boris has blown his chances of being PM.
As a result Gove has to stand and that blows the chances of any Brexit candidate winning.
May is only committed to "more control" over immigration not an Australian points system. So May is also flakey on immigration controls.0 -
Philip CollinsVerified account
@PCollinsTimes Philip Collins Retweeted Sam Coates Times
No election till 2020 is good news for Labour. Gives them time to get competitive.0 -
Another reason for opposing Gove is that he is the lickspittle of Murdoch and Dacre. Actually, maybe that's the prime factor.0
-
Eagle is in the process of collecting her 51 signatures. Were I an MP, I'd consider being the 50th person backing her, but not necessarily the 52nd. Like I said yesterday, the 172 Labour MPs should basically be setting themselves up as a papal conclave.FrankMuller said:Is Eagle a pretty much a sure thing (c. 90% likelihood) or am I completely misreading the situation?
I just have a feeling that the Labour election will end having 3 or 4 runners. Does that increaase the danger of Corbyn squeaking over the line - slightly, but it's a risk worth taking to get a candidate who you could actually see as PM.0 -
From my mate Faisal
My sense is core vote leavers wanted some absolute assurances from Boris on EU exit strategy - that's some of what's behind Leadsom, gove
So Bozza is the best candidate to keep us in the single market. I might vote for him now.0 -
That phrase is at risk of death by over-use...TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been betting on this market since 2006, I think I've backed everyone at some point. Except Boris, I've been laying him like one of many mistresses.Mortimer said:
Insufficiently smug - you need to be bragging about left-field predictions like that.TheScreamingEagles said:
YupMortimer said:TSE - didn't you write a thread about this?
I wonder if Boris even runs now....
Hope you backed it?
(And one of HIS many mistresses? Or yours??)
0 -
I don't think the perception is like that. May has the personal qualities to be seen as being able to control immigration, with a record that - in the members' eye - doesn't contradict that.Pong said:
May is vulnerable on immigration.David_Evershed said:By being flakey on immigration controls Boris has blown his chances of being PM.
As a result Gove has to stand and that blows the chances of any Brexit candidate winning.
May is only committed to "more control" over immigration not an Australian points system. So May is also flakey on immigration controls.0 -
she said thats only until we actually leave, she clearly said that there was no mandate for freedom of movement, and no one should be able to wriggle out of thatNickPalmer said:
Good solid speech. No change to trading arrangements means free movement continues. OK with me, but may not be universally popular.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May says: Brexit means Brexit
Theresa May, outlining her Conservative and prime ministerial leadership challenge says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
The home secretary says there should be no attempts to renege on that verdict and there should be no general election until 2020 and no emergency budget.
There should be no decision to invoke article 50 before the end of this year when Britain's negotiating terms are clear, she says.
There should be no change in Britain's trading arrangements with the EU or the legal status of overseas people living in the UK changed.0 -
With jeremy corbyn still as leader?rottenborough said:Philip CollinsVerified account
@PCollinsTimes Philip Collins Retweeted Sam Coates Times
No election till 2020 is good news for Labour. Gives them time to get competitive.0 -
It's what the people voted for, so it must be enactedMaxPB said:
If you are a Tory you must believe in supply side reforms rather than consumer side restrictions, ending free movement is a restriction on the consumer side which will damage our economy and create mass labour shortages.Tissue_Price said:
I will be very conflicted on May v Gove.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
0 -
I've sold off my Theresa May and taken a big punt on Gove @ ~4/1
The fundamentals are very good for him if he makes the final round.0 -
May drops withdrawing from ECHR ?
Farage lights cigar....0 -
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago
Theresa May looks like a prime minister. In charge, good humour, sounds like she knows what she's doing.
0 -
But she is fighting an election to be leader of the Tories, not UKIP.Pong said:
May is vulnerable on immigration.David_Evershed said:By being flakey on immigration controls Boris has blown his chances of being PM.
As a result Gove has to stand and that blows the chances of any Brexit candidate winning.
May is only committed to "more control" over immigration not an Australian points system. So May is also flakey on immigration controls.
0 -
@DPJHodges: That water cannon line is the first time I've seen Theresa May do politics. And you know what, she's good at it.
@RupertMyers: @DPJHodges so good that's the first time you've seen her do it.0 -
My computer crashed before I could correct that error. But Theresa May is wearing Government Tartan, subtle reminded to Sturgeon, Gove, Boris et al. What a minx.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Teresa May is a porn star.TheWhiteRabbit said:
*Theresa!dr_spyn said:Subtle message from Teresa May wearing Government Tartan.
0 -
We've been doing this on the last couple of threads: They're trying to tempt British voters into giving up passporting, in exchange for the ability to restrict immigration, to the benefit of Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt.HurstLlama said:I see the French finance minister has said that freedom of movement should be on the table at the negotiations. Perhaps those on here who are so certain of what can and cannot be achieved may not be correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/freedom-of-movement-reform-on-the-table-for-brexit-talks-suggest/0 -
The issue is the same as the last Labour election. Multiple candidates all attack each other and Corbyn sneaks down the left hand flank.. This sadly does need to be one person against Corbyn anything else is utterly pointless..Pro_Rata said:
Eagle is in the process of collecting her 51 signatures. Were I an MP, I'd consider being the 50th person backing her, but not necessarily the 52nd. Like I said yesterday, the 172 Labour MPs should basically be setting themselves up as a papal conclave.FrankMuller said:Is Eagle a pretty much a sure thing (c. 90% likelihood) or am I completely misreading the situation?
I just have a feeling that the Labour election will end having 3 or 4 runners. Does that increaase the danger of Corbyn squeaking over the line - slightly, but it's a risk worth taking to get a candidate who you could actually see as PM.
If Corbyn doesn't stand however all bets are off and you could then have multiple candidates.0 -
No, the people voted to leave the EU. Nothing more than that.asjohnstone said:
It's what the people voted for, so it must be enactedMaxPB said:
If you are a Tory you must believe in supply side reforms rather than consumer side restrictions, ending free movement is a restriction on the consumer side which will damage our economy and create mass labour shortages.Tissue_Price said:
I will be very conflicted on May v Gove.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
0 -
Lots of suggestions that Boris may be about to pull his bid.0
-
Indeed.edmundintokyo said:
We've been doing this on the last couple of threads: They're trying to tempt British voters into giving up passporting, in exchange for the ability to restrict immigration, to the benefit of Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt.HurstLlama said:I see the French finance minister has said that freedom of movement should be on the table at the negotiations. Perhaps those on here who are so certain of what can and cannot be achieved may not be correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/freedom-of-movement-reform-on-the-table-for-brexit-talks-suggest/
It will take some time for the Hysteriat to realise that their bubble has popped.0 -
Is this really what it seems? There was talk yesterday that Boris had enough votes to lend them to the third candidate in order to freeze May out of the final round. Gove's action scuppers that. Perhaps Gove is May's sleeper agent.0
-
Yes, she'll get her fig leaf. 180 day waiting times are my bet.kjohnw said:
she said thats only until we actually leave, she clearly said that there was no mandate for freedom of movement, and no one should be able to wriggle out of thatNickPalmer said:
Good solid speech. No change to trading arrangements means free movement continues. OK with me, but may not be universally popular.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May says: Brexit means Brexit
Theresa May, outlining her Conservative and prime ministerial leadership challenge says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
The home secretary says there should be no attempts to renege on that verdict and there should be no general election until 2020 and no emergency budget.
There should be no decision to invoke article 50 before the end of this year when Britain's negotiating terms are clear, she says.
There should be no change in Britain's trading arrangements with the EU or the legal status of overseas people living in the UK changed.0 -
Statements by Tory politicians on whether an early GE is likely should be viewed through the prism of whether it looks as though Jeremy Corbyn is about to be defenestrated.0
-
I saw Macron a few weeks ago (and reported it directly to this board): he said EEA, no passporting. So presumably, he's now saying "EEA, no passporting, no FoM".HurstLlama said:I see the French finance minister has said that freedom of movement should be on the table at the negotiations. Perhaps those on here who are so certain of what can and cannot be achieved may not be correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/freedom-of-movement-reform-on-the-table-for-brexit-talks-suggest/0 -
I'm happy with either May or Gove and a Brexitty cabinet.
On a personal note I think Gove would do well to lose the specs and get contacts and stand up a bit straighter.0 -
In the believe that passporting is actually that important.edmundintokyo said:
We've been doing this on the last couple of threads: They're trying to tempt British voters into giving up passporting, in exchange for the ability to restrict immigration, to the benefit of Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt.HurstLlama said:I see the French finance minister has said that freedom of movement should be on the table at the negotiations. Perhaps those on here who are so certain of what can and cannot be achieved may not be correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/freedom-of-movement-reform-on-the-table-for-brexit-talks-suggest/0 -
I'm definitely behind Gove, May isn't what I want in policy terms.John_M said:
I think it's more that Gove believes that Boris will water down the pure wine of a Brexit in favour of some fudge or other. Destroying Boris is just a desirable second order effect.DavidL said:
That is brutal. Did Boris not guarantee him the Treasury? Foolish if he didn't.SimonStClare said:Sparrow, snap analysis: - Last week Michael Gove’s Vote Leave campaign ended the career of David Cameron - a man that Gove has counted as a close friend for more than a decade.
Today the Gove career-destroying machine has turned on Boris Johnson, who until about half an hour ago was the favourite to win the Conservative leadership. Gove, who is respected by colleagues, Tory members and the media, has just published a damning character reference about the man with whom he jointly ran the victorious Vote Leave campaign. Here it is again:
" I respect and admire all the candidates running for the leadership. In particular, I wanted to help build a team behindBoris Johnson so that a politician who argued for leaving the European Union could lead us to a better future.
But I have come, reluctantly, to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead."
Bojo is shafted.0 -
Trying to sort out where the hell I am, are there any other runners ?
May 19.77
Gove -3.97
Johnson 4.92
Leadsom -188.5
Crabb -604.8
Baron -188.5
Fox 61.45
Edit: Ah yes0 -
I imagine if Corbyn hangs on May would go for a snap election in October/November.Richard_Nabavi said:Statements by Tory politicians on whether an early GE is likely should be viewed through the prism of whether it looks as though Jeremy Corbyn is about to be defenestrated.
0 -
Maybe Fox (not confirmed though)Pulpstar said:Trying to sort out where the hell I am, are there any other runners ?
May 19.77
Gove -3.97
Johnson 4.92
Leadsom -188.5
Crabb -604.8
Baron -188.50 -
I trust everyone who continuously attacked Brown for 3 years for being "unelected" will express the same reactions to the new Con leader if there's no election?0
-
Yes, that was what we said in our report. Restricting FoM will mean giving up a big prize, probably passporting rights (or single market for services, which is just financial passporting plus a few other things).rcs1000 said:
I saw Macron a few weeks ago (and reported it directly to this board): he said EEA, no passporting. So presumably, he's now saying "EEA, no passporting, no FoM".HurstLlama said:I see the French finance minister has said that freedom of movement should be on the table at the negotiations. Perhaps those on here who are so certain of what can and cannot be achieved may not be correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/freedom-of-movement-reform-on-the-table-for-brexit-talks-suggest/0 -
My analogy of Boris and the EURef being his Cannae and the Tory leadership race would be his Zama is looking spot on.
Well what would you expect from PB's foremost classicist.0 -
May is not vulnerable on immigration. The EU result is a reflection of the fact that the electorate understand that the government is powerless to prevent it.
Non-EU migration is mainly fee-paying students.0 -
I like Gove. I think he is a thoughtful, intellectual, spiky asset. And although he'd be a good leader, I just don't think he would win a GE.
I like Johnson. I think he is popular, a good campaigner and a vital asset. But he's flaky and lacks top level bravery and this week he's proved he's not a leader.
I was indifferent about May. But this morning she's proved she is a leader.
My money is on May. Super impressive.0 -
Doubt it. Too much messing about before it can happen. Further, would the electorate take kindly to be shouted at again. We’ve just seen one electoral gamble go badly wrong.MaxPB said:
I imagine if Corbyn hangs on May would go for a snap election in October/November.Richard_Nabavi said:Statements by Tory politicians on whether an early GE is likely should be viewed through the prism of whether it looks as though Jeremy Corbyn is about to be defenestrated.
0 -
We never got to that stage - Corbyn didn't exactly squeak down the middle, so the theory is untested. Personally, I wouldn't go for more than 3 candidates though, including Corbyn, and I'm pretty sure most of the fire this time will be directed his way, not between the other 2.eek said:
The issue is the same as the last Labour election. Multiple candidates all attack each other and Corbyn sneaks down the left hand flank.. This sadly does need to be one person against Corbyn anything else is utterly pointless..Pro_Rata said:
Eagle is in the process of collecting her 51 signatures. Were I an MP, I'd consider being the 50th person backing her, but not necessarily the 52nd. Like I said yesterday, the 172 Labour MPs should basically be setting themselves up as a papal conclave.FrankMuller said:Is Eagle a pretty much a sure thing (c. 90% likelihood) or am I completely misreading the situation?
I just have a feeling that the Labour election will end having 3 or 4 runners. Does that increaase the danger of Corbyn squeaking over the line - slightly, but it's a risk worth taking to get a candidate who you could actually see as PM.
If Corbyn doesn't stand however all bets are off and you could then have multiple candidates.0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Some might say this is genius by the Tories. Boris gets tarred and feathered along with Farage with all the unrealistic promises of EU campaign and instead elect a middle way candidate that didn't say a word throughout the referendum.SouthamObserver said:The Tory Leavers dumping Boris as quickly as they're dumping working class Labour voters. Who'da thunk it?
As an aside, I notice the EU have just announced that following a meeting in March, talks with Turkey in the EU is starting again.
The UK out, Turkey in. I'm sure some in Brussels will think that fair swap....0 -
Humans have many attributes. "Consistency" isn't one of them.not_on_fire said:I trust everyone who continuously attacked Brown for 3 years for being "unelected" will express the same reactions to the new Con leader if there's no election?
That said, if the optics are right, don't rule out a GE. The Labour party....I have no words for what they are at the moment - "divided" doesn't do it justice...riven by internal dissent is just not up for one.0 -
"Did Andrew Cooper's polls lose the referendum?"
"What purpose did the polling day announcement of a ten-point lead serve except to persuade Remain voters to stay at home?"
"Lord Cooper has form: last year, his bullishly named ‘Populus predictor’ gave a wonderfully precise figure for the Tories’ chance of winning a majority: 0.5 per cent. On polling day, he denounced Cameron’s triumphant general election campaign as a ‘prolonged exhibition of insanity’. All of which raises a question: why put him in charge of an EU referendum campaign whose failure could (and did) destroy the Prime Minister?"
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/how-the-pms-pollster-pal-called-it-wrong-again/0 -
When the ball comes loose out of the back of the scrum...the Tories form a ruck, Labour just stand around and look at it.0
-
asjohnstone said:
It's what the people voted for, so it must be enactedMaxPB said:
If you are a Tory you must believe in supply side reforms rather than consumer side restrictions, ending free movement is a restriction on the consumer side which will damage our economy and create mass labour shortages.Tissue_Price said:
I will be very conflicted on May v Gove.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
The whole point of Parliamentary documentary is to prevent popular but stupid things from being enacted.asjohnstone said:
It's what the people voted for, so it must be enactedMaxPB said:
If you are a Tory you must believe in supply side reforms rather than consumer side restrictions, ending free movement is a restriction on the consumer side which will damage our economy and create mass labour shortages.Tissue_Price said:
I will be very conflicted on May v Gove.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
0 -
Formal announcement of candidates standing for the Conservative leadership will be made at midday - Sky.
Boris speech at 11am to go ahead.
Sky now running clip of Gove in one of the recent debates saying he wouldn't run.0 -
There's no problem negotiating with EFTA, but EFTA is Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Iceland repesenting 10 million people in total, while the EU is Germany, France and 25 other countries representing 450 million people. Those are the important guys.Pro_Rata said:
Negotiating with the EU has been ruled out by the EU. I don't know whether negotiating with EFTA has been ruled out by EFTA, which is something completely different.OldKingCole said:
No, I suspect she’s saying that her in charge the Govt will sort out what it thinks is a reasonable negotiating position, with pre-planned fall-backs in it’s back pocket, and only then write the Article 50 letter.surbiton said:
Is she saying that there will be informal discussions before ? The EU has flatly said there won't be.TheWhiteRabbit said:Theresa May says: Brexit means Brexit
Theresa May, outlining her Conservative and prime ministerial leadership challenge says: "Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high and the public has given its verdict."
The home secretary says there should be no attempts to renege on that verdict and there should be no general election until 2020 and no emergency budget.
There should be no decision to invoke article 50 before the end of this year when Britain's negotiating terms are clear, she says.
There should be no change in Britain's trading arrangements with the EU or the legal status of overseas people living in the UK changed.0 -
Boris hasn't even marched his elephants across the Alps yet. He has 95 minutes to catch up.TheScreamingEagles said:My analogy of Boris and the EURef being his Cannae and the Tory leadership race would be his Zama is looking spot on.
Well what would you expect from PB's foremost classicist.0 -
Sky News reporting team Osborne "not unhappy with developments this morning"
ROFLMAO0 -
Yes, the glasses make him look intelligent, like one of those awful experts.Patrick said:I'm happy with either May or Gove and a Brexitty cabinet.
On a personal note I think Gove would do well to lose the specs and get contacts and stand up a bit straighter.0 -
As I pointed out earlier, that's a fool's errand as none of those three will compete with London unless we elect Corbyn Prime Minister.edmundintokyo said:
We've been doing this on the last couple of threads: They're trying to tempt British voters into giving up passporting, in exchange for the ability to restrict immigration, to the benefit of Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt.HurstLlama said:I see the French finance minister has said that freedom of movement should be on the table at the negotiations. Perhaps those on here who are so certain of what can and cannot be achieved may not be correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/freedom-of-movement-reform-on-the-table-for-brexit-talks-suggest/
In addition, passporting is only worth about £10bn max. If that's our only loss Brexit will be a bargain. We can get at least £30bn from improved regulation and perhaps £5bn from a reduced membership fee. That's before we get a trade deal with the US and others.0 -
That's pretty much the price at which I baled out of my remaining BoJo. He could well be 1000 in an hourstjohn said:i'm not making many shrewd political betting calls recently but Boris price now looks value to me and May shouldn't be odds on. It will be May versus ANOTHER and she still has to beat the ANOTHER in the membership ballot.
I've backed Boris! 6.4-6.6.0 -
That's why Gove will lose, he now looks untrustworthy.Sandpit said:Formal announcement of candidates standing for the Conservative leadership will be made at midday - Sky.
Boris speech at 11am to go ahead.
Sky now running clip of Gove in one of the recent debates saying he wouldn't run.0 -
asjohnstone said:
It's what the people voted for, so it must be enactedMaxPB said:
If you are a Tory you must believe in supply side reforms rather than consumer side restrictions, ending free movement is a restriction on the consumer side which will damage our economy and create mass labour shortages.Tissue_Price said:
I will be very conflicted on May v Gove.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
The whole point of Parliamentary documentary is to prevent popular but stupid things from being enacted. In any case, Free Movement wasn't on the ballot.asjohnstone said:
It's what the people voted for, so it must be enactedMaxPB said:
If you are a Tory you must believe in supply side reforms rather than consumer side restrictions, ending free movement is a restriction on the consumer side which will damage our economy and create mass labour shortages.Tissue_Price said:
I will be very conflicted on May v Gove.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
0 -
What's good with Gove standing is he'll be great during the campaign, and will force promises out of May (and the others) on Article 50 etc.PlatoSaid said:
I'm definitely behind Gove, May isn't what I want in policy terms.John_M said:
I think it's more that Gove believes that Boris will water down the pure wine of a Brexit in favour of some fudge or other. Destroying Boris is just a desirable second order effect.DavidL said:
That is brutal. Did Boris not guarantee him the Treasury? Foolish if he didn't.SimonStClare said:Sparrow, snap analysis: - Last week Michael Gove’s Vote Leave campaign ended the career of David Cameron - a man that Gove has counted as a close friend for more than a decade.
Today the Gove career-destroying machine has turned on Boris Johnson, who until about half an hour ago was the favourite to win the Conservative leadership. Gove, who is respected by colleagues, Tory members and the media, has just published a damning character reference about the man with whom he jointly ran the victorious Vote Leave campaign. Here it is again:
" I respect and admire all the candidates running for the leadership. In particular, I wanted to help build a team behindBoris Johnson so that a politician who argued for leaving the European Union could lead us to a better future.
But I have come, reluctantly, to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead."
Bojo is shafted.
Good move too from May on ditching the budget surplus. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures and boxing herself in on the finances would've been silly.0 -
... and only just.MaxPB said:
No, the people voted to leave the EU. Nothing more than that.asjohnstone said:
It's what the people voted for, so it must be enactedMaxPB said:
If you are a Tory you must believe in supply side reforms rather than consumer side restrictions, ending free movement is a restriction on the consumer side which will damage our economy and create mass labour shortages.Tissue_Price said:
I will be very conflicted on May v Gove.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Gove starts from a worse place in the membership.JohnO said:Tanding back for a moment. If the final two are May and Gove, it will be a MUCH closer race than with Johnson. Perhaps Theresa should loan some of MPs to the former undistinguished Mayor.
0 -
A month before the French presidential elections? That's absolutely nuts.FrancisUrquhart said:
As an aside, I notice the EU have just announced that following a meeting in March, talks with Turkey in the EU is starting again.
0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
