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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Happy days! Very happy with either Gove or May.

    May gets it as more voter friendly.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited June 2016
    Whoa - Gove standing!!!

    Edit: Thanks to whoever it was here that tipped him at 8/1 the other week, good call and I owe you a beer if he wins!
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    We need more LEAVE candidates surely ?

    Johnson, Gove, Baron, Fox, Leadsom ....

    Peter Bone please .. :smile:
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Gove and Osborne?

    Yuck. Osborne has to walk the plank.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    matt said:

    Tim Farron has left open the possibility of setting up a new party with elements of the Labour party who are unhappy under Jeremy Corbyn.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/tim-farron/news/76748/tim-farron-refuses-rule-out-new

    He doesn't seriously think he would lead a grouping comprised of ten times as many MPs as he currently commands, does he?
    Perhaps he takes the view that it's better to be senior in an organisation going somewhere than leader of a failing organisation. See by way of example the Anglo "mergers" of Scottish law firms.
    I don't think I can really comment on that example!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,452
    matt said:

    Tim Farron has left open the possibility of setting up a new party with elements of the Labour party who are unhappy under Jeremy Corbyn.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/tim-farron/news/76748/tim-farron-refuses-rule-out-new

    He doesn't seriously think he would lead a grouping comprised of ten times as many MPs as he currently commands, does he?
    Perhaps he takes the view that it's better to be senior in an organisation going somewhere than leader of a failing organisation. See by way of example the Anglo "mergers" of Scottish law firms.
    "Refuses to rule out" must be the most worthless phrase in political reporting.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    WOW! :open_mouth:
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    Not great. He's got interesting ideas, but seems divisive to me. I am surprised he'd stand, I assume this might split the Boris vote?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    This is the opportunity for the PCP to kill off Boris. Gove v May for the members to choose from.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727
    IanB2 said:

    matt said:

    Tim Farron has left open the possibility of setting up a new party with elements of the Labour party who are unhappy under Jeremy Corbyn.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/tim-farron/news/76748/tim-farron-refuses-rule-out-new

    He doesn't seriously think he would lead a grouping comprised of ten times as many MPs as he currently commands, does he?
    Perhaps he takes the view that it's better to be senior in an organisation going somewhere than leader of a failing organisation. See by way of example the Anglo "mergers" of Scottish law firms.
    "Refuses to rule out" must be the most worthless phrase in political reporting.
    ... along with 'we have no plans to ...'
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Croydon South CLP passed the no confidence in JC motion 27 to 6
    Finchley CLP passed the no confidence motion too

    SW Norfolk CLP passed the confidence in JC motion.
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    I'm really enthused. Gove is one of the few politicians I genuinely admire.

    Go MiGo!
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    eekeek Posts: 25,027
    kle4 said:

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    Not great. He's got interesting ideas, but seems divisive to me. I am surprised he'd stand, I assume this might split the Boris vote?
    Yep. My inkling is that Gove wants CoE... And May will give it to him if she wins... And you really don't want to be Cabinet member for Leave do you...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    I'd love Gove to say he is standing as an interim leader until say early 2019, to oversee Brexit and no more. Meantime, a few more can get Cabinet experience and show their true worth (or otherwise) to the voters for the 2020's. I think he'd walk it then.....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Gove and Osborne?

    Yuck. Osborne has to walk the plank.
    A long walk and a short plank, please!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    More worrying than Boris. I don't think he'd make it, the split may end up looking a lot like it is now, with around 40% of leavers going for May and few to no remainers going for Gove, but it may be as low as 20% of leavers going for May. Gove has a different appeal to Boris with different drawbacks.

    We also need to see what happens with Labour, if they manage to walk back on to the path of electablility then May has it in the bag. Gove doesn't have enough wider appeal among the public to beat an electable Labour party in 2020.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Just seen the news.

    I'm now assuming Boris is done for.

    A cruel blow by the PCP.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    IanB2 said:

    matt said:

    Tim Farron has left open the possibility of setting up a new party with elements of the Labour party who are unhappy under Jeremy Corbyn.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/tim-farron/news/76748/tim-farron-refuses-rule-out-new

    He doesn't seriously think he would lead a grouping comprised of ten times as many MPs as he currently commands, does he?
    Perhaps he takes the view that it's better to be senior in an organisation going somewhere than leader of a failing organisation. See by way of example the Anglo "mergers" of Scottish law firms.
    "Refuses to rule out" must be the most worthless phrase in political reporting.
    ... along with 'we have no plans to ...'
    And "could". Or "may"......
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Andrea Leadsom standing too.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715
    Boris, Gove, Leadsom, Fox. Just about every Leaver other than Priti is having a go.

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    edited June 2016
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    Not great. He's got interesting ideas, but seems divisive to me. I am surprised he'd stand, I assume this might split the Boris vote?
    Yep. My inkling is that Gove wants CoE... And May will give it to him if she wins... And you really don't want to be Cabinet member for Leave do you...
    Amidst the PB Leave euphoria, I am still not sure.

    I don't like people lying to me and I know that events change so people change their minds but he looked at us and said he wouldn't.

    But then, you know, I am a conservative Conservative. Not one of these mobile, going through the Parties on the whim of a bad speech or wrongly raised eyebrow, jelly Conservatives.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Gove made the same promises as Boris.

    Wonderful stuff.

    I'm also intrigued by the idea of having someone who doesn't want to fly as our PM. European meetings only for him - I guess that would put a stop to this bold new globally trading Britain. A problem for G7 meetings too, I guess.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    JackW said:

    We need more LEAVE candidates surely ?

    Johnson, Gove, Baron, Fox, Leadsom ....

    Peter Bone please .. :smile:

    Mrs Bone could blitz the lot of them! :smiley:
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So Boris doesn't make the ballot...

    Oh dear, what a shame.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Boles has ditched Boris and gone over to Gove.

    I can only think Johnson has has a serious wobble behind the scenes.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    So that leaked email was accidental huh?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    So that leaked email was accidental huh?

    You might say that, I couldn't possibly comment.....
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    What. The. Fuck. Is. Happening. To. British. Politics?
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    eekeek Posts: 25,027
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    Not great. He's got interesting ideas, but seems divisive to me. I am surprised he'd stand, I assume this might split the Boris vote?
    Yep. My inkling is that Gove wants CoE... And May will give it to him if she wins... And you really don't want to be Cabinet member for Leave do you...
    Amidst the PB Leave euphoria, I am still not sure.

    I don't like people lying to me and I know that events change so people change their minds but he looked at us and said he wouldn't.

    But then, you know, I am a conservative Conservative. Not one of these mobile, going through the Parties on the whim of a bad speech or wrongly raised eyebrow, jelly Conservatives.
    I think part of the battle is to stop Boris being in the final 2...
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    It could end up like Ed Milliband standing for Labour leader just to raise his profile and then accidentally winning it.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    eek said:

    Floater said:

    I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

    People also appear to be forgetting employment laws in France.

    I am sure dynamic businesses paying huge salaries will love that environment...........
    Remember the people discussing banks moving to Paris / Frankfurt / Dublin are those in Paris / Frankfurt / Dublin who want people to move there...
    With respect (a) it's not just banks; and (b) it's being discussed in London and contingency plans are being activated.
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    A week after the referendum was held and there's still no news of the winner of the PB.com competition, sponsored by Wm. Hill.
    I had been given to understand that the clever software employed enabled the full results to simply plop out at the touch of a button .... clearly I was wrong!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Nick Boles now chairing Gove campaign, no longer supporting Boris
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Fenster said:

    Boles has ditched Boris and gone over to Gove.

    I can only think Johnson has has a serious wobble behind the scenes.

    I imagine Gove asked Boris (and probably Theresa) to put immigration at the front of any EU negotiation, he got the big fat "no" so he has decided to run as the standard bearer for the right wing anti-immigration lot. If Fox bows out and backs Gove then we know it's on.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    So that leaked email was accidental huh?

    Machiavellian politics.
    I think Gove stands a very good chance of winning. He understands momentum in politics, and ultimately May has never been loved.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    Not great. He's got interesting ideas, but seems divisive to me. I am surprised he'd stand, I assume this might split the Boris vote?
    Yep. My inkling is that Gove wants CoE... And May will give it to him if she wins... And you really don't want to be Cabinet member for Leave do you...
    Amidst the PB Leave euphoria, I am still not sure.

    I don't like people lying to me and I know that events change so people change their minds but he looked at us and said he wouldn't.

    But then, you know, I am a conservative Conservative. Not one of these mobile, going through the Parties on the whim of a bad speech or wrongly raised eyebrow, jelly Conservatives.
    I think part of the battle is to stop Boris being in the final 2...
    It's quite a complicated, not to say dangerous game, though...

    We need another of @AlastairMeeks's binomial trees.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TOPPING said:

    What. The. Fuck. Is. Happening. To. British. Politics?

    Ten years of political trials and tribulations condensed into one week. – Great fun ain’t it :lol:
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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Mr Gove could be the first PM of an independent Britain ..... and last Scot.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,618

    PlatoSaid said:

    GOVE is standing!!

    He polled better than Johnson in the YouGov poll if still behind May in terms of positive/negative opinion. He wasn't a named candidate in the polling having declared himself out but it implies that a head to head with May would be closer if he gets that far.

    New YouGov please!
    No. This requires a gold standard effort. TNS/Opinium, PB needs you!

    YouGov's final eve of referendum poll was actually pretty good on the referendum. It had a tied result based on those responding who said they had decided. So the survey data was good.

    Where YouGov went wrong was (1) to ignore what the poll was telling them about turnout in terms of certainty to vote and to instead adjust their result based on different assumptions about turnout drawn from lessons in the general election and (2) to assume that some people who had not made their mind up and by a small balance were leaning to remain would actually vote in the same proportions as everyone else even though this would have implied a >90% turnout from their panel.

    So taking YouGov's actual polling on preferences and applying what their polling was telling them about turnout would have had Leave just ahead. They must be kicking themselves for cocking it up at the final hurdle having been the company which was also showing the best polling for Leave for most of the campaign (without a turnout filter as I pointed out several times here).

    So their polling was vindicated, it's just the way they chose to use it at the 11th hour which was not.

    And, by the way, they have a pretty good record too in polling for Conservative and Labour Party internal elections.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    So Boris was just the useful idiot all along.

    I smell Osborne.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    Not great. He's got interesting ideas, but seems divisive to me. I am surprised he'd stand, I assume this might split the Boris vote?
    Yep. My inkling is that Gove wants CoE... And May will give it to him if she wins... And you really don't want to be Cabinet member for Leave do you...
    Amidst the PB Leave euphoria, I am still not sure.

    I don't like people lying to me and I know that events change so people change their minds but he looked at us and said he wouldn't.

    But then, you know, I am a conservative Conservative. Not one of these mobile, going through the Parties on the whim of a bad speech or wrongly raised eyebrow, jelly Conservatives.
    I think part of the battle is to stop Boris being in the final 2...
    It's quite a complicated, not to say dangerous game, though...

    We need another of @AlastairMeeks's binomial trees.
    The last one wasn't exactly a success...

    But if you like, I can put one together for you.
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    JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Wow. Big development. Do we think Gove is standing, knowing he may not win, but to then rally around someone other than Boris later? Perhaps this is why Leadsom is standing too?
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    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    Gove shorter odds than Boris . It's Portillo all over again!
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Gove has just destroyed Boris, hasn't he?

    Yes, also shows that Gove doesn't trust either May or Boris to deliver immigration reform. May still has it in the bag.
    I am now not so sure.

    Gove has the bonafides over Brexit. He chose Brexit because he believed in Brexit.

    He destroys Boris on that point and obliterates May's "no comment" on the subject.

    May was going to mop up Leavers who didn't like Boris. They go to Gove now. The whole texture of the contest has been changed.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    So Boris was just the useful idiot all along.

    I smell Osborne.

    @DPJHodges: Boris Johnson just went from being next PM to a cautionary tale.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383


    Gove statement https://t.co/178zw7EiHY
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    edited June 2016

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    Not great. He's got interesting ideas, but seems divisive to me. I am surprised he'd stand, I assume this might split the Boris vote?
    Yep. My inkling is that Gove wants CoE... And May will give it to him if she wins... And you really don't want to be Cabinet member for Leave do you...
    Amidst the PB Leave euphoria, I am still not sure.

    I don't like people lying to me and I know that events change so people change their minds but he looked at us and said he wouldn't.

    But then, you know, I am a conservative Conservative. Not one of these mobile, going through the Parties on the whim of a bad speech or wrongly raised eyebrow, jelly Conservatives.
    I think part of the battle is to stop Boris being in the final 2...
    It's quite a complicated, not to say dangerous game, though...

    We need another of @AlastairMeeks's binomial trees.
    The last one wasn't exactly a success...

    But if you like, I can put one together for you.
    I'll start.

    If A: bonkers, if Not A: utterly mad.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited June 2016
    All of a sudden my book is looking very good on next PM :D
    Osborne Lay 2.2 £500
    Boris Lay 2.1 £950
    May 11 £100
    Gove 8 £50

    Come on Tory MPs, shut Boris out of it for my best ever betting event!!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369



    YouGov's final eve of referendum poll was actually pretty good on the referendum. It had a tied result based on those responding who said they had decided. So the survey data was good.

    Where YouGov went wrong was (1) to ignore what the poll was telling them about turnout in terms of certainty to vote and to instead adjust their result based on different assumptions about turnout drawn from lessons in the general election and (2) to assume that some people who had not made their mind up and by a small balance were leaning to remain would actually vote in the same proportions as everyone else even though this would have implied a >90% turnout from their panel.

    So taking YouGov's actual polling on preferences and applying what their polling was telling them about turnout would have had Leave just ahead. They must be kicking themselves for cocking it up at the final hurdle having been the company which was also showing the best polling for Leave for most of the campaign (without a turnout filter as I pointed out several times here).

    So their polling was vindicated, it's just the way they chose to use it at the 11th hour which was not.

    And, by the way, they have a pretty good record too in polling for Conservative and Labour Party internal elections.

    Really good analysis. Turnout is a moveable feast and polling companies who extrapolate from thee last GE are simply fighting the last war.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    tyson said:

    So that leaked email was accidental huh?

    Machiavellian politics.
    I think Gove stands a very good chance of winning. He understands momentum in politics, and ultimately May has never been loved.
    Better than Boris, but ultimately the party elected David Cameron over Davis (basically a prior run of Theresa vs Gove). The basic instinct to win is still there and it is much, much more likely that Theresa will deliver a win in 2020 than Gove. As long as she promises to deliver the referendum result and take the UK out of the EU then she should still win. That is probably another reason why Gove is running, he may not trust the current front runners to actually serve Article 50, so this way he gets them to guarantee it or he probably would win.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    MaxPB said:

    Fenster said:

    Boles has ditched Boris and gone over to Gove.

    I can only think Johnson has has a serious wobble behind the scenes.

    I imagine Gove asked Boris (and probably Theresa) to put immigration at the front of any EU negotiation, he got the big fat "no" so he has decided to run as the standard bearer for the right wing anti-immigration lot. If Fox bows out and backs Gove then we know it's on.
    Is Gove particularly motivated by immigration? I always thought he was more a sovereignty leaver? Do you think he be willing to leave the single market to deliver on immigration?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Betrayal. Double betrayal. Triple betrayal...

    Just another day in British politics.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,452
    JonathanD said:

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    It could end up like Ed Milliband standing for Labour leader just to raise his profile and then accidentally winning it.
    Gove versus Eagle, now that would be something. Quite what, I don't know, but definitely something.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    MaxPB said:

    Fenster said:

    Boles has ditched Boris and gone over to Gove.

    I can only think Johnson has has a serious wobble behind the scenes.

    I imagine Gove asked Boris (and probably Theresa) to put immigration at the front of any EU negotiation, he got the big fat "no" so he has decided to run as the standard bearer for the right wing anti-immigration lot. If Fox bows out and backs Gove then we know it's on.
    Is Gove particularly motivated by immigration? I always thought he was more a sovereignty leaver? Do you think he be willing to leave the single market to deliver on immigration?
    Yes, he said it many times. He would prefer to be out of the single market if it meant restricting immigration. Boris always used the double speak of saying we could be in the single market and reduce immigration. Gove was quite clear about leaving the single market.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 9 mins9 minutes ago

    Nicky Morgan has pulled out of race for No10 - friends say
    20 retweets 7 likes


    We have lost a titan.....
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    SandraMSandraM Posts: 206

    TOPPING said:

    What. The. Fuck. Is. Happening. To. British. Politics?

    Ten years of political trials and tribulations condensed into one week. – Great fun ain’t it :lol:
    I feel that these fast moving events will speed the demise of the print press. By the time the daily papers come out, events will have moved on so far it will seem like last week's news.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,452

    MaxPB said:

    Fenster said:

    Boles has ditched Boris and gone over to Gove.

    I can only think Johnson has has a serious wobble behind the scenes.

    I imagine Gove asked Boris (and probably Theresa) to put immigration at the front of any EU negotiation, he got the big fat "no" so he has decided to run as the standard bearer for the right wing anti-immigration lot. If Fox bows out and backs Gove then we know it's on.
    Is Gove particularly motivated by immigration? I always thought he was more a sovereignty leaver? Do you think he be willing to leave the single market to deliver on immigration?
    I suspect Gove has had a 'steer' from Dacre and Murdoch.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    So Gove thrusts his trusty sword/hat? into the ring. Good for him. He may just give the two frontrunners a run for their money, and even win. :)
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    madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    Patrick said:

    I'm really enthused. Gove is one of the few politicians I genuinely admire.

    Go MiGo!

    I would not vote for Gove,if he becomes PM. Annoying man.
    I would also not vote for Fox,or Boris- both deeply untrustworthy.
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @ianB2

    It is very simple, for years we have been unable to restrict immigration, now we can. If we don't the politicians will pay the consequences.

    Its called democracy, its what we voted for.

    If these ones, arguably the most right wing set of Conservatives in a while, don't deliver immigration restriction, who on earth are you expecting to?
    Who are you referring to?
    You want to restrict immigration. You say that if the government doesn't, they will "pay the consequences" which, short of armed uprising or swinging from the Cenotaph, presumably means voting them out.

    In which case which set of politicians are you expecting to be voted in to deliver your desired restriction of immigration? Labour? UKIP? Green? SDP2?
    I meant which right wing tories are you referring to? The govt has the ability to reduce immigration, it was implicitly told to by the electorate, if it doesn't they'll be replaced.

    You lot are in such a muddle its hilarious.
    I am certainly not in a muddle.

    You, meanwhile, have not answered my question. If the forthcoming set of Conservatives don't restrict immigration, who are you expecting them to be replaced by who will restrict it?

    Give me some names here, so I can get a handle on your thinking. The Moggster, John Redwood and Bill Cash at his side? Douglas Carswell and an expected other 325 UKIP MPs?
    I've been ticked of by Leavers on here for daring to suggest that immigration was the reason for Leaves triumph. Apparently it was all about sovereignty, despite the campaign . So maybe not just remain in a muddle?

    I wasn't and still am not entirely convinced of that, but, assuming that is correct for the bulk of the Leave vote and we negotiate access to the single market with freedom of movement but crucially resolve the sovereignty issue does that not mean that all ukip can campaign on is immigration?
    I can see that being a step to far for a lot of voters. Or is that just wishful thinking?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Boris has been utterly f**ked over....

    Lol
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    Not great. He's got interesting ideas, but seems divisive to me. I am surprised he'd stand, I assume this might split the Boris vote?
    Yep. My inkling is that Gove wants CoE... And May will give it to him if she wins... And you really don't want to be Cabinet member for Leave do you...
    Amidst the PB Leave euphoria, I am still not sure.

    I don't like people lying to me and I know that events change so people change their minds but he looked at us and said he wouldn't.

    But then, you know, I am a conservative Conservative. Not one of these mobile, going through the Parties on the whim of a bad speech or wrongly raised eyebrow, jelly Conservatives.
    I think part of the battle is to stop Boris being in the final 2...
    It's quite a complicated, not to say dangerous game, though...

    We need another of @AlastairMeeks's binomial trees.
    The last one wasn't exactly a success...

    But if you like, I can put one together for you.
    I'll start.

    If A: bonkers, if Not A: utterly mad.

    Interesting looking at Gove's YouGov page

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Michael_Gove

    -46 positivity

    Most loved by the hard right

    Correlates most with those who like Donald Trump and Dad's Army.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,452
    midwinter said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @ianB2

    It is very simple, for years we have been unable to restrict immigration, now we can. If we don't the politicians will pay the consequences.

    Its called democracy, its what we voted for.

    If these ones, arguably the most right wing set of Conservatives in a while, don't deliver immigration restriction, who on earth are you expecting to?
    Who are you referring to?
    You want to restrict immigration. You say that if the government doesn't, they will "pay the consequences" which, short of armed uprising or swinging from the Cenotaph, presumably means voting them out.

    In which case which set of politicians are you expecting to be voted in to deliver your desired restriction of immigration? Labour? UKIP? Green? SDP2?
    I meant which right wing tories are you referring to? The govt has the ability to reduce immigration, it was implicitly told to by the electorate, if it doesn't they'll be replaced.

    You lot are in such a muddle its hilarious.
    I am certainly not in a muddle.

    You, meanwhile, have not answered my question. If the forthcoming set of Conservatives don't restrict immigration, who are you expecting them to be replaced by who will restrict it?

    Give me some names here, so I can get a handle on your thinking. The Moggster, John Redwood and Bill Cash at his side? Douglas Carswell and an expected other 325 UKIP MPs?
    I've been ticked of by Leavers on here for daring to suggest that immigration was the reason for Leaves triumph. Apparently it was all about sovereignty, despite the campaign . So maybe not just remain in a muddle?

    I wasn't and still am not entirely convinced of that, but, assuming that is correct for the bulk of the Leave vote and we negotiate access to the single market with freedom of movement but crucially resolve the sovereignty issue does that not mean that all ukip can campaign on is immigration?
    I can see that being a step to far for a lot of voters. Or is that just wishful thinking?
    Surely we have just seen that for the last month, so we know already?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    MaxPB said:

    Fenster said:

    Boles has ditched Boris and gone over to Gove.

    I can only think Johnson has has a serious wobble behind the scenes.

    I imagine Gove asked Boris (and probably Theresa) to put immigration at the front of any EU negotiation, he got the big fat "no" so he has decided to run as the standard bearer for the right wing anti-immigration lot. If Fox bows out and backs Gove then we know it's on.
    Is Gove particularly motivated by immigration? I always thought he was more a sovereignty leaver? Do you think he be willing to leave the single market to deliver on immigration?
    I think he would be far likelier to apply, surgically, the Leave manifesto and promises. He strikes me as that kind of a guy.

    It is about as damning a public dismissal of one politician by another as I can remember.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jonathan said:

    Because of Corbyn's intransigence two likely outcomes await.

    A Corbyn stays

    Labour goes into a general election where almost all of its candidates are questioned daily on why they think people should vote Labour if they have no confidence in their own leader.

    B Corbyn goes

    Momentum do not accept defeat and put up candidates against key PLP members dividing the vote.

    The only way out is a tiny chance that a candidate could be found that can minimise (b) and avoid (a). But everything is saying that this will not happen.

    As things stand, make no mistake, this is the end of the Labour party. It needs a miracle.

    I am honestly worried about some hot head attacking one of the MPs who is anti Corbyn.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    IanB2 said:

    JonathanD said:

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    It could end up like Ed Milliband standing for Labour leader just to raise his profile and then accidentally winning it.
    Gove versus Eagle, now that would be something. Quite what, I don't know, but definitely something.
    Suddenly Farron would look serious.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    While nobody will step up for the Labour Party, everybody and their mother appears to want to stop Boris in the Tory Party.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Chris Grayling running Theresa May's campaign bid
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Grayling fronts May campaign and will be the Chair
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Well that is Boris Johnson's political career fucked then.
    I wonder what he'll do. Train journeys has been cornered. Cooking....Boris in the kitchen maybe. Or......possibly Top Gear.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Boris is just upset to have been played at his own game, and beaten by someone better at it!
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    never trust any politician. nor any political poll.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Did Southam ever order that 12 gross of BETRAYAL T-shirts?
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    JonathanD said:

    IanB2 said:

    JonathanD said:

    Imagine if the Conservative party elect Gove as their leader. Jesus H Christ.

    How do PBers rank Gove's chances of getting elected?

    Boris will be crying into his cornflakes now though....

    It could end up like Ed Milliband standing for Labour leader just to raise his profile and then accidentally winning it.
    Gove versus Eagle, now that would be something. Quite what, I don't know, but definitely something.
    Suddenly Farron would look serious.
    I wouldn't go that far
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    So has Gove been cooking this up with Osborne and Cameron since Monday (when he stayed behind after Cabinet for 45 minutes)?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    This is the outline of my next thread

    So Boris shafted David Cameron, and now Boris is getting shafted by Gove and a lot of Leavers. I think I might break a rib laughing
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @kle4 Yes, it'll be interesting to see if Gove and Boris being both in the mix splits the vote among LEAVERS.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    WTF. I am literally away from my desk for 15mins thx to a minor domestic crisis and I come back and Gove is running.

    This is getting ridiculous.
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    I'd love Gove to say he is standing as an interim leader until say early 2019, to oversee Brexit and no more. Meantime, a few more can get Cabinet experience and show their true worth (or otherwise) to the voters for the 2020's. I think he'd walk it then.....

    I, too, am very disappointed that Michael Gove isn't standing, especially after having enjoyed a successful Leave campaign, including a comprehensive one to one win against the unpleasant Faisal Islam.
    I suspect the truth of the matter is that he simply didn't want it enough, or indeed at all. Generally speaking you only get one shot at the top job and he's allowed it to pass him by, despite clearly possessing the required intellect and ability .... shame.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Chris Grayling very impressive here.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good morning all. Wow! Leadsom and Gove throwing their hat into the ring, that's unexpected.

    A few remarks:

    Homosexuality was legalised in 1967, that's the thick end of half a century ago. It really is old, old news.

    I always like @matt's posts; we shouldn't try and gloss over the fact that jobs will be lost directly due to Brexit. The argument has to be whether the gain is worth the pain. We're not going to 'win' an argument here. Remainers say no, Leavers say yes...ad infinitum.

    What is clear is that the range and quality of any gains are going to be down to the ability of the British political establishment, supported by the Civil Service and others, to execute Brexit well. Currently I'm not at all sanguine.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It will be a well deserved tragedy for Boris if he fails in hi bid to become PM. He has kept himself in the shadows for too long during this febrile week; he has hesitated to much to be convincing. He may even be pleased to have failed - if indeed he does.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Not too sure the May backdrop of library books is that great.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Leadsom, Gove, Boris/May tie, Fox.... Crabb

    in that order for me. Gove is incredibly clever and on point, but has an image problem holding him back, yet he will be the more exciting option than May.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    midwinter said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    @ianB2

    It is very simple, for years we have been unable to restrict immigration, now we can. If we don't the politicians will pay the consequences.

    Its called democracy, its what we voted for.

    If these ones, arguably the most right wing set of Conservatives in a while, don't deliver immigration restriction, who on earth are you expecting to?
    Who are you referring to?
    You want to restrict immigration. You say that if the government doesn't, they will "pay the consequences" which, short of armed uprising or swinging from the Cenotaph, presumably means voting them out.

    In which case which set of politicians are you expecting to be voted in to deliver your desired restriction of immigration? Labour? UKIP? Green? SDP2?
    I meant which right wing tories are you referring to? The govt has the ability to reduce immigration, it was implicitly told to by the electorate, if it doesn't they'll be replaced.

    You lot are in such a muddle its hilarious.
    I am certainly not in a muddle.

    You, meanwhile, have not answered my question. If the forthcoming set of Conservatives don't restrict immigration, who are you expecting them to be replaced by who will restrict it?

    Give me some names here, so I can get a handle on your thinking. The Moggster, John Redwood and Bill Cash at his side? Douglas Carswell and an expected other 325 UKIP MPs?
    I've been ticked of by Leavers on here for daring to suggest that immigration was the reason for Leaves triumph. Apparently it was all about sovereignty, despite the campaign . So maybe not just remain in a muddle?

    I wasn't and still am not entirely convinced of that, but, assuming that is correct for the bulk of the Leave vote and we negotiate access to the single market with freedom of movement but crucially resolve the sovereignty issue does that not mean that all ukip can campaign on is immigration?
    I can see that being a step to far for a lot of voters. Or is that just wishful thinking?
    Well, at least Michael Gove has answered the question I was asking just now (who is the politician who will restrict immigration if not this lot)!

    I think that the Party leader election will be a rehearsal of the broader (and much more significant) immigration debate that we would get if immigration is not addressed to the right's satisfaction.

    And as to being a step too far for voters? That is the interesting point which, sadly IMO, we might have to find out.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Does this really kill off Boris ?

    I'm not so sure.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    I'd love Gove to say he is standing as an interim leader until say early 2019, to oversee Brexit and no more. Meantime, a few more can get Cabinet experience and show their true worth (or otherwise) to the voters for the 2020's. I think he'd walk it then.....

    I, too, am very disappointed that Michael Gove isn't standing, especially after having enjoyed a successful Leave campaign, including a comprehensive one to one win against the unpleasant Faisal Islam.
    I suspect the truth of the matter is that he simply didn't want it enough, or indeed at all. Generally speaking you only get one shot at the top job and he's allowed it to pass him by, despite clearly possessing the required intellect and ability .... shame.
    Peter, Gove IS standing.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    May down at 2.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Chris Grayling is chairing the T May campaign, real coup for the Home Secretary
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    @kle4 Yes, it'll be interesting to see if Gove and Boris being both in the mix splits the vote among LEAVERS.

    It's AV.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Robert Peston ‏@Peston 2 mins2 minutes ago

    .@BorisJohnson may pull his leadership launch. Jesus
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Pulpstar said:

    Does this really kill off Boris ?

    I'm not so sure.

    Gove is very publicly voicing the doubts many Tories hold privately about Boris.

    That's not good for Boris
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MartinBelam: Labour: We can't find anyone to stand to be new leader

    Conservatives: We are all standing to be new leader
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    May standing. Speaking now.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    Time for the grown-ups to take charge of this clusterf**** of a mess.

    May for Tories.

    Erm, not sure for Labour, where is David?
This discussion has been closed.