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Indigo said:

Danny565 said:

logical_song said:

Danny565 said:

All of whom have such bad political judgement that they just enthusiastically backed the "Remain" campaign. Why should I trust they know how to win an election, if they mis-judged the public mood on the EU so badly?

51.9 to 48.1

A defeat, then - and a defeat despite all the institutional advantages a campaign could dream of.

Ergo, anyone who thought it was a good idea to back the Remain campaign (i.e. most of the Labour MPs who now think they are qualified to dish out lectures on how to be electable) clearly does not have a good sense of how the public think themselves.

51.9 to 48.1 is a bit disingenuous in this context as well, since Labour are not going to be that concerned with the views of voters in Tory safe seats. The real issue is that lack of understanding for voters in places like Stoke which came out 70% for Leave and is of course represented by that well known man of the working people Dr Hon. Tristram Hunt.

Even London, that bastion of Remain belief and fervour voted 40% for Leave.

No-one is concerned with the views of the voters in safe seats. Therein lies the problem.

IanB2 said:

david_kendrick1 said:

"So, Mrs May, what did you during the referendum?"

"I hid. That was because Brexit doesn't interest me much one-way-or the other".

"So why should you lead our exit negotiations?"

"I work hard, and I don't drink."

The tory activists may be impressed. For Leavers, not so much...

Not that I agree with her, but I think she is a leaver. Her speech on the ECJ/ECHR was a proxy and as close as she could come to disloyalty whilst keeping her job. She stayed with remain for the same reason that Boris joined leave - they both thought it was to their advantage and they both thought that remain would win. The one thing I am confident of is that their two personal votes in the Referendum were cast in opposite directions!

When the government chose to opt in to the Justice and Home Affairs part of the Lisbon Treaty, the reporting was that Ms May was the push behind it. Not the action of a Leaver.

Ok, just catching up. Owen Smith is going to challenge Jezza, as is Eagle. Surely if two run then that clears the gate for the whole gang of them to challenge?

Sandpit said:

PlatoSaid said:

blackburn63 said:

OldKingCole said:

ManWithThePlan said:

logical_song said:

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

I wonder how many wwc Leave voters realised that they were voting for bankers bonuses to be increased.

Very few probably, which is why UKIP will surge and accelerate Labour's demise.

You mean you’ve got to be really thick to vote UKIP?

No, I DON”T think the WWC are; Poorly informed, perhaps.

I can't persuade people to agree with me, they are thick

You've been reading David Aaronovitch in The Times? He's totally lost it. Now he's arguing down in the comments with those who believe in democracy more than he does. It's really quite remarkably entertaining given 98% are WTF Are You On?

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-anger-is-so-great-we-must-have-a-new-vote-wx6s953z7

There's certainly an awful lot of supposedly intelligent commentators showing their true colours in the past few days. That they, the elites, should run things and the little people should just shut up and do what they're told.

Well, the people have had their say - thanks Mr Cameron - and they've spoken, so deal with it.

The problem is that we can't deal with it. We cannot leave the EU on the terms the Leave campaign promised. In selling a false proposition to voters the Leave side has undermined democracy, not enhanced it.

Marine Le Pen also leads first round presidential polls in France, unpalatable though she may be she has used her gender to distance herself from her father

Sandpit said:

PlatoSaid said:

blackburn63 said:

OldKingCole said:

ManWithThePlan said:

logical_song said:

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

I wonder how many wwc Leave voters realised that they were voting for bankers bonuses to be increased.

Very few probably, which is why UKIP will surge and accelerate Labour's demise.

You mean you’ve got to be really thick to vote UKIP?

No, I DON”T think the WWC are; Poorly informed, perhaps.

I can't persuade people to agree with me, they are thick

You've been reading David Aaronovitch in The Times? He's totally lost it. Now he's arguing down in the comments with those who believe in democracy more than he does. It's really quite remarkably entertaining given 98% are WTF Are You On?

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-anger-is-so-great-we-must-have-a-new-vote-wx6s953z7

There's certainly an awful lot of supposedly intelligent commentators showing their true colours in the past few days. That they, the elites, should run things and the little people should just shut up and do what they're told.

Well, the people have had their say - thanks Mr Cameron - and they've spoken, so deal with it.

Nothing inherently wrong with the view that the little people should not get to decide things as they cannot consider all the facts and implications, that's why we have representatives. Of course, no one is going to say something that blunt before a public vote, be it referendum or election. Well, almost no one. And if you e ever talked about the importance of listening to the people, that the people are sovereign, well. You're screwed.

AlastairMeeks said:

anotherDave said:

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So:

Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb are declared runners. Boris Johnson and Theresa May are certain to enter the race today. Will there be any others? Andrea Leadsom and Nicky Morgan have flirted with the idea but are they actually going to stand? Any others?

I'm guessing Nicky Morgan will have had a slap from the Reality Monster.

Andrea probably gets a more sympathetic "I'd love to, but..." Maybe some people will vote for others but on the proviso that Andrea is given a top finance job. She deserves that.

Is the MPs vote a secret ballot?

Yes. Public endorsements are for the public only.

After the first round of the 1975 Tory leadership election when Ted Heath had been eliminated, Ted Heath received over 150 messages from Tory MPs saying something along the lines of

'Bad luck old boy, I voted for you'

The reality was only 119 Tory MPs had voted for Ted Heath

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

PlatoSaid said:

blackburn63 said:

OldKingCole said:

ManWithThePlan said:

logical_song said:

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

I wonder how many wwc Leave voters realised that they were voting for bankers bonuses to be increased.

Very few probably, which is why UKIP will surge and accelerate Labour's demise.

You mean you’ve got to be really thick to vote UKIP?

No, I DON”T think the WWC are; Poorly informed, perhaps.

I can't persuade people to agree with me, they are thick

You've been reading David Aaronovitch in The Times? He's totally lost it. Now he's arguing down in the comments with those who believe in democracy more than he does. It's really quite remarkably entertaining given 98% are WTF Are You On?

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-anger-is-so-great-we-must-have-a-new-vote-wx6s953z7

There's certainly an awful lot of supposedly intelligent commentators showing their true colours in the past few days. That they, the elites, should run things and the little people should just shut up and do what they're told.

Well, the people have had their say - thanks Mr Cameron - and they've spoken, so deal with it.

The problem is that we can't deal with it. We cannot leave the EU on the terms the Leave campaign promised. In selling a false proposition to voters the Leave side has undermined democracy, not enhanced it.

Every election sells a false prospectus. This one is just more significant if indeed it us false.

Labour activist Neal Lawson "the choice is essentially between different captains of the Titanic, and therefore is no choice at all"

A break coming up?

HYUFD said:

Marine Le Pen also leads first round presidential polls in France, unpalatable though she may be she has used her gender to distance herself from her father

I'm really looking forward to the french presidential election.

Ms Le Pen is going to make a french referendum part of her platform, I'm curious to see how popular that is, and how the other candidates respond.

blackburn63 said:

Looking at the egos and careerists fighting in the Labour Party its no wonder people are turning away from party politics. Few of them have any principles or association with the grass roots, I hate to say it but I hope the Labour Party disappears.

I bow to no one in my dislike of the Labour party, but at this time especially a functioning opposition might be nice!

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So:

Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb are declared runners. Boris Johnson and Theresa May are certain to enter the race today. Will there be any others? Andrea Leadsom and Nicky Morgan have flirted with the idea but are they actually going to stand? Any others?

I think that is plenty. Indeed in the case of Fox and Morgan rather too many.

I am not a fan of Liam Fox but he speaks for a grouping of the Conservative party. It would be helpful to see its Parliamentary strength.

I wonder whether we might see one or two more unanticipated names come forward. Jeremy Hunt was musing on his own position. Has Phillip Hammond yet said what he is doing?

Jeremy Hunt has done a good job keeping the NHS off the agenda during the election and then taking on the most reactionary unions in the UK today but I don't think he would have a chance. I am still struggling to see what is so wonderful about Hammond. He has a good backstory but his performance in Defence was nothing to write home about (admittedly he inherited a total shambles) and he has been unusually invisible as Foreign Secretary at a time when foreign affairs have been playing a rather more significant part than usual in our affairs. He seems to have nothing to say.

I think that electing a PM is different from electing a leader of the opposition where it is possible to take more of a chance and see how we go (very, very badly in Corbyn's case of course). We need safer hands in government.

It would be helpful if Gove would clarify his position.

Hunt is presumably banging the phones etc to see if he can muster enough to be worth it.

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

Danny565 said:

logical_song said:

Danny565 said:

All of whom have such bad political judgement that they just enthusiastically backed the "Remain" campaign. Why should I trust they know how to win an election, if they mis-judged the public mood on the EU so badly?

51.9 to 48.1

A defeat, then - and a defeat despite all the institutional advantages a campaign could dream of.

Ergo, anyone who thought it was a good idea to back the Remain campaign (i.e. most of the Labour MPs who now think they are qualified to dish out lectures on how to be electable) clearly does not have a good sense of how the public think themselves.

Does that include Corbyn who - in his own words - worked as hard as possible for Remain?

And all the trade unions?

In any case, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Remain side was correct: the Leavers cannot deliver the Brexit deal they promised.

If they can deliver one without immigration stuff they can deliver a better deal than promised

Cyclefree said:

One other word of caution. All banks are now busy offshoring, onshoring and reducing their costs because of the challenging market and regulatory conditions and this has been happening for a while. Don't assume that all of this is linked to Brexit. Much of it would be happening anyway.

I thought that when a couple of banks announced stuff last Friday. Here's an excuse to do what we've already got planned - announce today and the news will be both lost and planned on something utterly irrelevant...

To be honest I think the passport is a trump card for us - we can probably extract a lot by using it in negotiations and then just dropping it. What someone needs to do quickly is identify what areas require passporting and how profitable they are... Yes someone probably is doing that but given the current headless chicken government better to explicitly state a point for investigation...

Floater said:

Labour activist Neal Lawson "the choice is essentially between different captains of the Titanic, and therefore is no choice at all"

A break coming up?

What happened to his compass? Still up and running?

IanB2 said:

Indigo said:

Danny565 said:

logical_song said:

Danny565 said:

All of whom have such bad political judgement that they just enthusiastically backed the "Remain" campaign. Why should I trust they know how to win an election, if they mis-judged the public mood on the EU so badly?

51.9 to 48.1

A defeat, then - and a defeat despite all the institutional advantages a campaign could dream of.

Ergo, anyone who thought it was a good idea to back the Remain campaign (i.e. most of the Labour MPs who now think they are qualified to dish out lectures on how to be electable) clearly does not have a good sense of how the public think themselves.

51.9 to 48.1 is a bit disingenuous in this context as well, since Labour are not going to be that concerned with the views of voters in Tory safe seats. The real issue is that lack of understanding for voters in places like Stoke which came out 70% for Leave and is of course represented by that well known man of the working people Dr Hon. Tristram Hunt.

Even London, that bastion of Remain belief and fervour voted 40% for Leave.

No-one is concerned with the views of the voters in safe seats. Therein lies the problem.

Perhaps we now have fewer safe seats :-)

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So:

Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb are declared runners. Boris Johnson and Theresa May are certain to enter the race today. Will there be any others? Andrea Leadsom and Nicky Morgan have flirted with the idea but are they actually going to stand? Any others?

I think that is plenty. Indeed in the case of Fox and Morgan rather too many.

I am not a fan of Liam Fox but he speaks for a grouping of the Conservative party. It would be helpful to see its Parliamentary strength.

I wonder whether we might see one or two more unanticipated names come forward. Jeremy Hunt was musing on his own position. Has Phillip Hammond yet said what he is doing?

Jeremy Hunt has done a good job keeping the NHS off the agenda during the election and then taking on the most reactionary unions in the UK today but I don't think he would have a chance. I am still struggling to see what is so wonderful about Hammond. He has a good backstory but his performance in Defence was nothing to write home about (admittedly he inherited a total shambles) and he has been unusually invisible as Foreign Secretary at a time when foreign affairs have been playing a rather more significant part than usual in our affairs. He seems to have nothing to say.

I think that electing a PM is different from electing a leader of the opposition where it is possible to take more of a chance and see how we go (very, very badly in Corbyn's case of course). We need safer hands in government.

It would be helpful if Gove would clarify his position.

Hunt is presumably banging the phones etc to see if he can muster enough to be worth it.

Personally I'm on Hunt at 66 from last year, but that is in the "likely lost" pile, and you can do far better on Betfair and trade it without overhead :-(.

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So:

Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb are declared runners. Boris Johnson and Theresa May are certain to enter the race today. Will there be any others? Andrea Leadsom and Nicky Morgan have flirted with the idea but are they actually going to stand? Any others?

I think that is plenty. Indeed in the case of Fox and Morgan rather too many.

I am not a fan of Liam Fox but he speaks for a grouping of the Conservative party. It would be helpful to see its Parliamentary strength.

I wonder whether we might see one or two more unanticipated names come forward. Jeremy Hunt was musing on his own position. Has Phillip Hammond yet said what he is doing?

Jeremy Hunt has done a good job keeping the NHS off the agenda during the election and then taking on the most reactionary unions in the UK today but I don't think he would have a chance. I am still struggling to see what is so wonderful about Hammond. He has a good backstory but his performance in Defence was nothing to write home about (admittedly he inherited a total shambles) and he has been unusually invisible as Foreign Secretary at a time when foreign affairs have been playing a rather more significant part than usual in our affairs. He seems to have nothing to say.

I think that electing a PM is different from electing a leader of the opposition where it is possible to take more of a chance and see how we go (very, very badly in Corbyn's case of course). We need safer hands in government.

It would be helpful if Gove would clarify his position.

Hunt is presumably banging the phones etc to see if he can muster enough to be worth it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3559154/My-job-politics-Jeremy-Hunt-admits-junior-doctors-row-killed-career-thousands-patients-hit-strike.html

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So:

Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb are declared runners. Boris Johnson and Theresa May are certain to enter the race today. Will there be any others? Andrea Leadsom and Nicky Morgan have flirted with the idea but are they actually going to stand? Any others?

I think that is plenty. Indeed in the case of Fox and Morgan rather too many.

I am not a fan of Liam Fox but he speaks for a grouping of the Conservative party. It would be helpful to see its Parliamentary strength.

I wonder whether we might see one or two more unanticipated names come forward. Jeremy Hunt was musing on his own position. Has Phillip Hammond yet said what he is doing?

It would be helpful if Gove would clarify his position.

I thought he'd come out for Mr Johnson?

Because of Corbyn's intransigence two likely outcomes await.

A Corbyn stays

Labour goes into a general election where almost all of its candidates are questioned daily on why they think people should vote Labour if they have no confidence in their own leader.

B Corbyn goes

Momentum do not accept defeat and put up candidates against key PLP members dividing the vote.

The only way out is a tiny chance that a candidate could be found that can minimise (b) and avoid (a). But everything is saying that this will not happen.

As things stand, make no mistake, this is the end of the Labour party. It needs a miracle.

Mr. Dave, I do wonder if the result was the equivalent of when the Somerset flooding started to affect the Thames Valley.

Suddenly it became the top news story in all the world, despite having been afflicting Somerset for weeks at that point.

GIN1138 said:

blackburn63 said:

According to the Telegraph the FTSE had it's best day for 5 years yesterday, the emotional headless chickens will ignore that.

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

Hush you two... It's all gong to be a disaster... Now pass me another large one Anna!

May will do a deal on the EEA and bankers' passports to protect the City though she may keep the bonus cap for now

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

(snip)

Secondly, it seems probable that a majority of Labour voters did back Remain, though the Labour vote must also have been deeply split because in many heartland areas, the Leave vote was huge.

Be interesting to see the Labour vote split with London taken out. London has masked that, in the rest of the country, there was far less enthusiasm from Labour voters to Remain.

Indeed, it was Labour voters in London, Manchester, Newcastle, Cardiff, Leeds and Liverpool who ensured Labour voters overall backed Remain. As a majority of the present Labour vote comes from metropolitan areas that determined which way the overall Labour vote went, even when Labour voters elsewhere frequently voted Leave

If your argument is that Labour voted remain overall because of the Metropolitan Cities then you should be able to see the problem...

Outside those metropolitan cities every safe labour seat is probably now a Labour / UKIP marginal.... And in the next election I would be betting on UKIP every single time...

Patrick said:

I have been speaking to some of my relatives and discovered they mostly voted Remain. My father and my brother included! I'm really surprised. My father said he hates the EU with a passion and his heart was 100% Leave but he felt the short term grief this would cause pushed him reluctantly to Remain and he now regrets not voting Leave. I suspect this may be a very common position. Not many of the 48% are diehard Europhiles at all - but mostly those who didn't fancy some grief in order to deliver what their heart told them. They bottled it and chose a short term palliative rather than a long term cure.

I think that's true.

The longer we stay out, the bigger the Leave support will get. There are already indications of that in the YouGov poll on a 2nd referendum.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/little-support-second-referendum/

Surely May's chances are a mile better than Eagle's ?

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

(snip)

Secondly, it seems probable that a majority of Labour voters did back Remain, though the Labour vote must also have been deeply split because in many heartland areas, the Leave vote was huge.

Be interesting to see the Labour vote split with London taken out. London has masked that, in the rest of the country, there was far less enthusiasm from Labour voters to Remain.

So what? We are constantly reminded by the Right on here is that London is part of England and we ought not try to split it out

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

People also appear to be forgetting employment laws in France.

I am sure dynamic businesses paying huge salaries will love that environment...........

Jonathan said:

Because of Corbyn's intransigence two likely outcomes await.

A Corbyn stays

Labour goes into a general election where almost all of its candidates are questioned daily on why they think people should vote Labour if they have no confidence in their own leader.

B Corbyn goes

Momentum do not accept defeat and put up candidates against key PLP members dividing the vote.

The only way out is a tiny chance that a candidate could be found that can minimise (b) and avoid (a). But everything is saying that this will not happen.

As things stand, make no mistake, this is the end of the Labour party. It needs a miracle.

B will result in the usual result, a hard left candidate (in addition to Labour) on the GE ballot in the average Labour constituency gets around 2 or 3% of vote at best. I don't see any change on that front. Only by wrapping themselves in the 'Labour' brand can they get any traction. That is why McDonnell and his henchmen are fighting tooth and nail to retain the power of the party.

anotherDave said:

IanB2 said:

david_kendrick1 said:

"So, Mrs May, what did you during the referendum?"

"I hid. That was because Brexit doesn't interest me much one-way-or the other".

"So why should you lead our exit negotiations?"

"I work hard, and I don't drink."

The tory activists may be impressed. For Leavers, not so much...

Not that I agree with her, but I think she is a leaver. Her speech on the ECJ/ECHR was a proxy and as close as she could come to disloyalty whilst keeping her job. She stayed with remain for the same reason that Boris joined leave - they both thought it was to their advantage and they both thought that remain would win. The one thing I am confident of is that their two personal votes in the Referendum were cast in opposite directions!

When the government chose to opt in to the Justice and Home Affairs part of the Lisbon Treaty, the reporting was that Ms May was the push behind it. Not the action of a Leaver.

Possibly because cooperating with other countries in fighting crime and terrorism is a good idea rather than the mark of a traitor.

Looks like May is sensible, pragmatic and not blinded by ideology. Definitely a better choice than Boris.

blackburn63 said:

SouthamObserver said:

blackburn63 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sandpit said:

PlatoSaid said:

blackburn63 said:

OldKingCole said:

ManWithThePlan said:

logical_song said:

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

I wonder how many wwc Leave voters realised that they were voting for bankers bonuses to be increased.

Very few probably, which is why UKIP will surge and accelerate Labour's demise.

You mean you’ve got to be really thick to vote UKIP?

No, I DON”T think the WWC are; Poorly informed, perhaps.

I can't persuade people to agree with me, they are thick

You've been reading David Aaronovitch in The Times? He's totally lost it. Now he's arguing down in the comments with those who believe in democracy more than he does. It's really quite remarkably entertaining given 98% are WTF Are You On?

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-anger-is-so-great-we-must-have-a-new-vote-wx6s953z7

There's certainly an awful lot ofittle people should just shut up and do what they're told.

Well, the people have had their say - thanks Mr Cameron - and they've spoken, so deal with it.

The problem is that we can't deal with it. We cannot leave the EU on the terms the Leave campaign promisedve side has undermined democracy, not enhanced it.

I really don't get why you persist with this line. The Leave campaign was about what our govt would be able to do if we left the EU, it is now the govt's responsibility to carry it out.

The government that negotiates the Brexit deal will be full of prominent Leavers. They will not deliver the Brexit deal they promised.

Maybe, but they could if they wanted to. We could stop immigration today if we wanted to. I don't think we should but its very easy to do so.

Of course. But the Tory Leavers made specific promises and will not deliver on them.

SouthamObserver said:

logical_song said:

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

I wonder how many wwc Leave voters realised that they were voting for bankers bonuses to be increased.

What could possibly go wrong with London becoming a highly deregulated offshore financial centre hosting institutions with potential liabilities many times greater than the size of the English economy?

What we need is a Labour government to properly regulate them........ oh

rottenborough said:

Jonathan said:

Because of Corbyn's intransigence two likely outcomes await.

A Corbyn stays

Labour goes into a general election where almost all of its candidates are questioned daily on why they think people should vote Labour if they have no confidence in their own leader.

B Corbyn goes

Momentum do not accept defeat and put up candidates against key PLP members dividing the vote.

The only way out is a tiny chance that a candidate could be found that can minimise (b) and avoid (a). But everything is saying that this will not happen.

As things stand, make no mistake, this is the end of the Labour party. It needs a miracle.

B will result in the usual result, a hard left candidate (in addition to Labour) on the GE ballot in the average Labour constituency gets around 2 or 3% of vote at best. I don't see any change on that front. Only by wrapping themselves in the 'Labour' brand can they get any traction. That is why McDonnell and his henchmen are fighting tooth and nail to retain the power of the party.

Spot on. If Corbyn stands down or loses the hard left is finished. So he won't.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dave, I do wonder if the result was the equivalent of when the Somerset flooding started to affect the Thames Valley.

Suddenly it became the top news story in all the world, despite having been afflicting Somerset for weeks at that point.

Everything's settled until it isn't.

I quite like Mr Lilico's new Canzuk (Canada, Australia, NZ, UK) alliance future. We may need to add privateers for the movie version, but it has a bright feel about it.

http://reaction.life/so-what-next/

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So:

Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb are declared runners. Boris Johnson and Theresa May are certain to enter the race today. Will there be any others? Andrea Leadsom and Nicky Morgan have flirted with the idea but are they actually going to stand? Any others?

I think that is plenty. Indeed in the case of Fox and Morgan rather too many.

I am not a fan of Liam Fox but he speaks for a grouping of the Conservative party. It would be helpful to see its Parliamentary strength.

I wonder whether we might see one or two more unanticipated names come forward. Jeremy Hunt was musing on his own position. Has Phillip Hammond yet said what he is doing?

Hammond will likely back May

I read yesterday that he had ruled out running for PM

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

Danny565 said:

logical_song said:

Danny565 said:

All of whom have such bad political judgement that they just enthusiastically backed the "Remain" campaign. Why should I trust they know how to win an election, if they mis-judged the public mood on the EU so badly?

51.9 to 48.1

A defeat, then - and a defeat despite all the institutional advantages a campaign could dream of.

Ergo, anyone who thought it was a good idea to back the Remain campaign (i.e. most of the Labour MPs who now think they are qualified to dish out lectures on how to be electable) clearly does not have a good sense of how the public think themselves.

Does that include Corbyn who - in his own words - worked as hard as possible for Remain?

And all the trade unions?

In any case, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Remain side was correct: the Leavers cannot deliver the Brexit deal they promised.

What IS becoming clear is that the Leavers won't deliver the Apocalypse that the Remainers promised.

As for your earlier comments about undermining democracy, anything that "Leave" can be accused of is dwarfed into insignificance by the lies told by the Europhiles for over 40 years.

Mr. Eagles, sensible for Farron. If leaving Labour (should it come to that) is the key emotional wrench, then some may prefer to frolic in the pro-EU meadows of LibDemLand.

PlatoSaid said:

Sandpit said:

PlatoSaid said:

blackburn63 said:

OldKingCole said:

ManWithThePlan said:

logical_song said:

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

I wonder how many wwc Leave voters realised that they were voting for bankers bonuses to be increased.

Very few probably, which is why UKIP will surge and accelerate Labour's demise.

You mean you’ve got to be really thick to vote UKIP?

No, I DON”T think the WWC are; Poorly informed, perhaps.

I can't persuade people to agree with me, they are thick

You've been reading David Aaronovitch in The Times? He's totally lost it. Now he's arguing down in the comments with those who believe in democracy more than he does. It's really quite remarkably entertaining given 98% are WTF Are You On?

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-anger-is-so-great-we-must-have-a-new-vote-wx6s953z7

There's certainly an awful lot of supposedly intelligent commentators showing their true colours in the past few days. That they, the elites, should run things and the little people should just shut up and do what they're told.

Well, the people have had their say - thanks Mr Cameron - and they've spoken, so deal with it.

There's so much teenage huffing from the metro-liberal set. If they weren't so insufferably superior, I'd feel a bit sorry for them. Trevor Phillips wrote a Times article earlier this week that basically called all Leavers stupid Whites. Suffice to say he deservedly got both barrels in the comments - all 500 of them.

There's an interesting article on the BBC website, which suggests that the reason why such people are so angry is that it's the first time in their lives they've ever had to contemplate that history may not be on their side. It's hard to accept defeat if you've always been used to winning.

DavidL said:

daodao said:

DavidL said:

daodao said:

FPT:

The PLP don't get it if they think that choosing a dyke as leader will endear them to older socially conservative WWC voters in the North of England and Midlands, whose views led to the Leave result last week. She also has very limited appeal to the Labour selectorate, who placed her 4th in the last deputy leadership contest. She is the wrong candidate to challenge JC.

If the Labour party aren't careful, UKIP could win swathes of seats in former Labour heartlands, like the SNP have done in the West of Scotland, at the next GE. I would personally prefer Farage as LOTO, to hold the new Con government's feet to the fire and deliver on the key arguments for Brexit, namely sovereignty and effective control and restriction of immigration. He made an excellent speech in the EU "parliament" the other day.

Re other elections in the next year or so, Trump has a very good chance of becoming POTUS, as Clinton is an appalling candidate. I wouldn't bet against M_LP in France either.

What on earth does her sexual orientation have to do with anything? Depressing that sort of comment is even still thought let alone made.

Anyone over 60 in the UK was brought up in era when homosexuality was a criminal offence and regarded as a cardinal sin. It is still regarded as the latter by Muslims (and Jews). If anyone was unfortunately afflicted by same-sex desire, it was the done thing to keep quiet and not be in the public eye. Beliefs and values inculcated in childhood last until one's dying day.

Rubbish. We have moved on and are the better for it. You don't get much older or crustier than the average Scottish tory (in my mid 50s I am probably still in the youth section) but Ruth is a hero to them and her sexual orientation is irrelevant. You really need to think through your attitudes. They are irrational and diminish you.

Quite. A couple of decades ago (at my mother's funeral, as it happens) an aunt wondered aloud 'Isn't it a shame about Jim Fyfe, I wonder why he never married?' (He'd lived with the same chap for decades) - the rolled eyes exchanged between the great aunts, then in their late seventies, early eighties were visions to behold.....

Jobabob said:

Danny

Just because you keep saying this doesn't make it true. Once more: 67% of Labour voters voted Remain.

It would have been a lot more if people knew what the party stood for. Yvette is clearly the best choice but the left wing nut jobs who have taken over the party will do their level best to reelect Corbyn, who will destroy the party.

62% I thought, it may even be higher than that looking at the results rather than the Ashcroft poll.

The problem for Labour is that the 38% who voted for Brexit form the bedrock of the party's support, making sure UKIP don't leech votes away (especially in the EEA scenario that seems to be not very far down the road) is going to be very tough if Labour doesn't have a leader who will pledge to take us out of the EU and reform free movement.

Here's a way to look at it, around 40% of Labour voters voted for Brexit compared to around 60% of Tory ones. Of those how many do you think voted on the basis of immigration and how many do you think can be swung by economic arguments to stay in the single market. A lot of Tory voters I know who were in the leave camp see free movement as an advantage of the EU, but voted to leave on the basis of sovereignty and independence from the EU. These are the kind of people you see on here mostly!

Additionally, a lot of the BlUeKIP voters aren't driven by immigration either, there is a core of 20-25% of UKIP voters who were driven by sovereignty, membership fees and democratic reasons, many of those may now look at the Tories if we are heading down the EEA road.

Labour have a very tough decision coming, they need to find policies that suit both the 62% of voters who voted to retain the single market and free movement as well as the 38% who voted to leave it and restrict immigration, for that is the main reason which drove Labour voters to leave.

Hard to disagree ...
https://twitter.com/tony_j_turner/status/748415006023245824

Floater said:

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

People also appear to be forgetting employment laws in France.

I am sure dynamic businesses paying huge salaries will love that environment...........

Remember the people discussing banks moving to Paris / Frankfurt / Dublin are those in Paris / Frankfurt / Dublin who want people to move there...

david_herdson said:

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

Eagle's voice isn't strong enough and she talks too fast and isn't dynamic enough imho. If she becomes Labour leader, Labour are only slightly better off than with Corbyn. She could not imho win an election, but she might stave off disaster, which cannot be ignored. OTOH.... I think Mrs May would be v impressive. She won't stand any nonsense,.. just about the longest standing Home Sec and with virtually no crises on her cv.

Eagle would be better than Corbyn because she would have a full choice of Labour MPs to put in her shadow cabinet. The country needs an opposition to hold this government, and the next one, to account. The final Brexit deal is going to shape our future for many years, so we need the best one possible. It is also going to fail to deliver much of what the Leave campaign promised. If the whole debate is essentially an internal Tory conversation many millions of people are going to be forgotten.

Eagle can't win a general election, but she can deliver a credible opposition. Corbyn can do neither. Labour members, though, have no interest in that. Corbyn is going nowhere.

The Labour membership is divided on Corbyn. It may not be enough to get rid of him and save Labour, but don't tar all members with the same brush.

I understand and apologise. It's short hand. It's sane Labour members I feel most sorry for. It's doing my head in and I'm on the outside. What it must be like on the inside doesn't bear thinking about.

I noticed that last night the Holborn & St Pancras CLP voted against a motion in support of Corbyn. No £3ers involved, of course. It'll be different for the leadership election - and that's the problem.

And not just because of Corbyn's obvious unsuitability: they are in this position because the other wing of their party is equally bankrupt. John Harris in the Guardian today should be a must read for all labour supporters.

Whatever else Blair might be, he's not bankrupt.

Morally bankrupt perhaps

Mr. Dave, Canzuk sounds like a good idea. Countries that are big, but not superpowers, with a good degree of similar worldview. [Plus, same head of state ].

Boris may have more endorsements from MPs than Theresa, but up to a point that is irrelevant. All she needs to do is to come second among MPs in order to get on the ballot of members.

@blackburn63

The line we are persisting with is scenario analysis. What might happen now. The government can certainly do anything it wants. We are wondering out loud,because you know, this is a chatroom, an' all, what it might actually do.

Single market + free movement of people? Many happy; you and some others on here furious.

No single market + no free movement? Different responses.

One thing I do think, however, is that many people voted to Leave based on the Leave campaign's manifesto and mini-manifesto.

I am surprised that a true-blue patriotic democrat such as you profess to be seem to be so happy to betray their wishes.