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First!

Corbyn is going nowhere, Angela Eagle will never lead Labour. In any case, can it really be seen as a mainstream party these days?

Watching Channel 4's Power Monkeys from last night - very sharp, especially so given they write, film and broadcast it all the same day. Jokes about Mrs Gove and PMQs for example.

SquareRoot said:

Eagle's voice isn't strong enough and she talks too fast and isn't dynamic enough imho. If she becomes Labour leader, Labour are only slightly better off than with Corbyn. She could not imho win an election, but she might stave off disaster, which cannot be ignored. OTOH.... I think Mrs May would be v impressive. She won't stand any nonsense,.. just about the longest standing Home Sec and with virtually no crises on her cv.

Eagle would be better than Corbyn because she would have a full choice of Labour MPs to put in her shadow cabinet. The country needs an opposition to hold this government, and the next one, to account. The final Brexit deal is going to shape our future for many years, so we need the best one possible. It is also going to fail to deliver much of what the Leave campaign promised. If the whole debate is essentially an internal Tory conversation many millions of people are going to be forgotten.

Eagle can't win a general election, but she can deliver a credible opposition. Corbyn can do neither. Labour members, though, have no interest in that. Corbyn is going nowhere.

daodao said:

FPT:

The PLP don't get it if they think that choosing a dyke as leader will endear them to older socially conservative WWC voters in the North of England and Midlands, whose views led to the Leave result last week. She also has very limited appeal to the Labour selectorate, who placed her 4th in the last deputy leadership contest. She is the wrong candidate to challenge JC.

If the Labour party aren't careful, UKIP could win swathes of seats in former Labour heartlands, like the SNP have done in the West of Scotland, at the next GE. I would personally prefer Farage as LOTO, to hold the new Con government's feet to the fire and deliver on the key arguments for Brexit, namely sovereignty and effective control and restriction of immigration. He made an excellent speech in the EU "parliament" the other day.

Re other elections in the next year or so, Trump has a very good chance of becoming POTUS, as Clinton is an appalling candidate. I wouldn't bet against M_LP in France either.

I think wrong, at every level. Also just a whisper of prejudice... Trump ain't going to win, Le Pen? Maybe, but about as positive a force as Farage in the EP, surrounded by people far more qualified, saying that being a commodities broker was a real job. The backlash may leave UKIP with fewer seats in the House Commons than it has now. Eagle is not the finished article, but neither was Thatcher. At least she really is a Northerner.

daodao said:

FPT:

The PLP don't get it if they think that choosing a dyke as leader will endear them to older socially conservative WWC voters in the North of England and Midlands, whose views led to the Leave result last week. She also has very limited appeal to the Labour selectorate, who placed her 4th in the last deputy leadership contest. She is the wrong candidate to challenge JC.

If the Labour party aren't careful, UKIP could win swathes of seats in former Labour heartlands, like the SNP have done in the West of Scotland, at the next GE. I would personally prefer Farage as LOTO, to hold the new Con government's feet to the fire and deliver on the key arguments for Brexit, namely sovereignty and effective control and restriction of immigration. He made an excellent speech in the EU "parliament" the other day.

Re other elections in the next year or so, Trump has a very good chance of becoming POTUS, as Clinton is an appalling candidate. I wouldn't bet against M_LP in France either.

You been in the juice already? Bit early man.

It's all a bit game of thrones, it's all female rulers there too

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

Eagle's voice isn't strong enough and she talks too fast and isn't dynamic enough imho. If she becomes Labour leader, Labour are only slightly better off than with Corbyn. She could not imho win an election, but she might stave off disaster, which cannot be ignored. OTOH.... I think Mrs May would be v impressive. She won't stand any nonsense,.. just about the longest standing Home Sec and with virtually no crises on her cv.

Eagle would be better than Corbyn because she would have a full choice of Labour MPs to put in her shadow cabinet. The country needs an opposition to hold this government, and the next one, to account. The final Brexit deal is going to shape our future for many years, so we need the best one possible. It is also going to fail to deliver much of what the Leave campaign promised. If the whole debate is essentially an internal Tory conversation many millions of people are going to be forgotten.

Eagle can't win a general election, but she can deliver a credible opposition. Corbyn can do neither. Labour members, though, have no interest in that. Corbyn is going nowhere.

The Labour membership is divided on Corbyn. It may not be enough to get rid of him and save Labour, but don't tar all members with the same brush.

Indeed - I will vote for anyone but Corbyn. It will be close this time.

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

Eagle's voice isn't strong enough and she talks too fast and isn't dynamic enough imho. If she becomes Labour leader, Labour are only slightly better off than with Corbyn. She could not imho win an election, but she might stave off disaster, which cannot be ignored. OTOH.... I think Mrs May would be v impressive. She won't stand any nonsense,.. just about the longest standing Home Sec and with virtually no crises on her cv.

Eagle would be better than Corbyn because she would have a full choice of Labour MPs to put in her shadow cabinet. The country needs an opposition to hold this government, and the next one, to account. The final Brexit deal is going to shape our future for many years, so we need the best one possible. It is also going to fail to deliver much of what the Leave campaign promised. If the whole debate is essentially an internal Tory conversation many millions of people are going to be forgotten.

Eagle can't win a general election, but she can deliver a credible opposition. Corbyn can do neither. Labour members, though, have no interest in that. Corbyn is going nowhere.

The Labour membership is divided on Corbyn. It may not be enough to get rid of him and save Labour, but don't tar all members with the same brush.

I understand and apologise. It's short hand. It's sane Labour members I feel most sorry for. It's doing my head in and I'm on the outside. What it must be like on the inside doesn't bear thinking about.

I noticed that last night the Holborn & St Pancras CLP voted against a motion in support of Corbyn. No £3ers involved, of course. It'll be different for the leadership election - and that's the problem.

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

Eagle's voice isn't strong enough and she talks too fast and isn't dynamic enough imho. If she becomes Labour leader, Labour are only slightly better off than with Corbyn. She could not imho win an election, but she might stave off disaster, which cannot be ignored. OTOH.... I think Mrs May would be v impressive. She won't stand any nonsense,.. just about the longest standing Home Sec and with virtually no crises on her cv.

Eagle would be better than Corbyn because she would have a full choice of Labour MPs to put in her shadow cabinet. The country needs an opposition to hold this government, and the next one, to account. The final Brexit deal is going to shape our future for many years, so we need the best one possible. It is also going to fail to deliver much of what the Leave campaign promised. If the whole debate is essentially an internal Tory conversation many millions of people are going to be forgotten.

Eagle can't win a general election, but she can deliver a credible opposition. Corbyn can do neither. Labour members, though, have no interest in that. Corbyn is going nowhere.

The Labour membership is divided on Corbyn. It may not be enough to get rid of him and save Labour, but don't tar all members with the same brush.

I understand and apologise. It's short hand. It's sane Labour members I feel most sorry for. It's doing my head in and I'm on the outside. What it must be like on the inside doesn't bear thinking about.

I noticed that last night the Holborn & St Pancras CLP voted against a motion in support of Corbyn. No £3ers involved, of course. It'll be different for the leadership election - and that's the problem.

And not just because of Corbyn's obvious unsuitability: they are in this position because the other wing of their party is equally bankrupt. John Harris in the Guardian today should be a must read for all labour supporters.

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

Eagle's voice isn't strong enough and she talks too fast and isn't dynamic enough imho. If she becomes Labour leader, Labour are only slightly better off than with Corbyn. She could not imho win an election, but she might stave off disaster, which cannot be ignored. OTOH.... I think Mrs May would be v impressive. She won't stand any nonsense,.. just about the longest standing Home Sec and with virtually no crises on her cv.

Eagle would be better than Corbyn because she would have a full choice of Labour MPs to put in her shadow cabinet. The country needs an opposition to hold this government, and the next one, to account. The final Brexit deal is going to shape our future for many years, so we need the best one possible. It is also going to fail to deliver much of what the Leave campaign promised. If the whole debate is essentially an internal Tory conversation many millions of people are going to be forgotten.

Eagle can't win a general election, but she can deliver a credible opposition. Corbyn can do neither. Labour members, though, have no interest in that. Corbyn is going nowhere.

The Labour membership is divided on Corbyn. It may not be enough to get rid of him and save Labour, but don't tar all members with the same brush.

I understand and apologise. It's short hand. It's sane Labour members I feel most sorry for. It's doing my head in and I'm on the outside. What it must be like on the inside doesn't bear thinking about.

I noticed that last night the Holborn & St Pancras CLP voted against a motion in support of Corbyn. No £3ers involved, of course. It'll be different for the leadership election - and that's the problem.

A sane Labour friend of mine (properly, not this £3 nonsense) specifically in order to vote against Corbyn. I suspect his continued membership will depend on the outcome; I think he sees this as the last chance to get his party back.

It says something though that Angela Eagle is the vehicle for such a moment.

ManWithThePlan said:

logical_song said:

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

I wonder how many wwc Leave voters realised that they were voting for bankers bonuses to be increased.

Very few probably, which is why UKIP will surge and accelerate Labour's demise.

You mean you’ve got to be really thick to vote UKIP?

No, I DON”T think the WWC are; Poorly informed, perhaps.

On topic, there may be a slight effect on the Lab campaign if May looks like winning but I doubt it will be big.

Firstly, Boris seems to have a decent lead in MPs, though he may poll like Portillo in 2001, scoring well to start with then failing to advance, or like David Davis who actually went backwards in 2005. But either way, May isn't going to look like a shoo-in so Labour members would be taking a bit of a flier voting on that basis. Also, most Labour votes (like most Con votes) are likely to be cast early, so there'll be less opportunity to respond to events.

And secondly, and more importantly, Labour's contest is a battle for the soul of the party. Issues such as 'our first female leader' come a very long way down the list. How many potential Cobyn voters will be swayed by that notion? How many would otherwise have voted for him - and for the likely split in the Labour party that would in all probability result from a Corbyn win - but will switch just because his opponent is a woman (and not a particularly big-hitting woman)?

SouthamObserver said:

logical_song said:

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

I wonder how many wwc Leave voters realised that they were voting for bankers bonuses to be increased.

What could possibly go wrong with London becoming a highly deregulated offshore financial centre hosting institutions with potential liabilities many times greater than the size of the English economy?

It's not going to be deregulated. It's going to be appropriately regulated.

E.g. the banker bonus cap has resulted in higher fixed costs and more volatility in profitability hence less systemic stability. Better to have a significant portion paid in stock, vesting over an extended period and cancelled for bad behaviour

not_on_fire said:

I'd never heard of or seen Eagle until the referendum debate, but she sounded like a village idiot in that one. Not convinced she'd be any improvement on Corbyn.

May would destroy her.

In Scotland the leaders of the three biggest parties are women. It does make a difference.

Four out of six party leaders are in same-sex relationships FWIW.

daodao said:

FPT:

The PLP don't get it if they think that choosing a dyke as leader will endear them to older socially conservative WWC voters in the North of England and Midlands, whose views led to the Leave result last week. She also has very limited appeal to the Labour selectorate, who placed her 4th in the last deputy leadership contest. She is the wrong candidate to challenge JC.

If the Labour party aren't careful, UKIP could win swathes of seats in former Labour heartlands, like the SNP have done in the West of Scotland, at the next GE. I would personally prefer Farage as LOTO, to hold the new Con government's feet to the fire and deliver on the key arguments for Brexit, namely sovereignty and effective control and restriction of immigration. He made an excellent speech in the EU "parliament" the other day.

Re other elections in the next year or so, Trump has a very good chance of becoming POTUS, as Clinton is an appalling candidate. I wouldn't bet against M_LP in France either.

What on earth does her sexual orientation have to do with anything? Depressing that sort of comment is even still thought let alone made.

nunu said:

not_on_fire said:

I'd never heard of or seen Eagle until the referendum debate, but she sounded like a village idiot in that one. Not convinced she'd be any improvement on Corbyn.

May would destroy her.

As opposed to destroying Corbyn.

But Eagle does understand that Labour ought to aspire to being a party of government rather than a movement of protest, which would be a step in the right direction.

The danger of an Eagle leadership is that is proves ineffective and gives the Corbynites the charge that their leader was betrayed for nothing (which wouldn't be true because the counterfactual would undoubtedly have been worse but they wouldn't know that and no amount of speculation will persuade them of it). Consequently, it would risk the possibility of another left-wing takeover after a general election, when the PLP may have enough left-wing MPs to provide a nominating block.

Freggles said:

not_on_fire said:

I'd never heard of or seen Eagle until the referendum debate, but she sounded like a village idiot in that one. Not convinced she'd be any improvement on Corbyn.

Seconded. Shrill.

She's Labour's Anthony Meyer (older readers only).

blackburn63 said:

According to the Telegraph the FTSE had it's best day for 5 years yesterday, the emotional headless chickens will ignore that.

FTSE 100 is now higher than any time since the middle of April, and the 250 is back to where it was a week ago. But that doesn't fit the narrative, so it will go unmentioned.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/stockmarket/3/three_month.stm

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

Eagle's voice isn't strong enough and she talks too fast and isn't dynamic enough imho. If she becomes Labour leader, Labour are only slightly better off than with Corbyn. She could not imho win an election, but she might stave off disaster, which cannot be ignored. OTOH.... I think Mrs May would be v impressive. She won't stand any nonsense,.. just about the longest standing Home Sec and with virtually no crises on her cv.

Eagle would be better than Corbyn because she would have a full choice of Labour MPs to put in her shadow cabinet. The country needs an opposition to hold this government, and the next one, to account. The final Brexit deal is going to shape our future for many years, so we need the best one possible. It is also going to fail to deliver much of what the Leave campaign promised. If the whole debate is essentially an internal Tory conversation many millions of people are going to be forgotten.

Eagle can't win a general election, but she can deliver a credible opposition. Corbyn can do neither. Labour members, though, have no interest in that. Corbyn is going nowhere.

The Labour membership is divided on Corbyn. It may not be enough to get rid of him and save Labour, but don't tar all members with the same brush.

I understand and apologise. It's short hand. It's sane Labour members I feel most sorry for. It's doing my head in and I'm on the outside. What it must be like on the inside doesn't bear thinking about.

I noticed that last night the Holborn & St Pancras CLP voted against a motion in support of Corbyn. No £3ers involved, of course. It'll be different for the leadership election - and that's the problem.

And not just because of Corbyn's obvious unsuitability: they are in this position because the other wing of their party is equally bankrupt. John Harris in the Guardian today should be a must read for all labour supporters.

Whatever else Blair might be, he's not bankrupt.

not_on_fire said:

I'd never heard of or seen Eagle until the referendum debate, but she sounded like a village idiot in that one. Not convinced she'd be any improvement on Corbyn.

Eagles needs some media training, fast. She is always the rudest member of any panel, chuntering away over other panellists trying to have their say. She speaks too fast, then pauses obviously whilst she has to think. And that voice? It reminds me of the high-pitched whine of a mosquito.

I just despair of Labour putting up a half-decent opposition any time soon.

Danny565 said:

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

Eagle's voice isn't strong enough and she talks too fast and isn't dynamic enough imho. If she becomes Labour leader, Labour are only slightly better off than with Corbyn. She could not imho win an election, but she might stave off disaster, which cannot be ignored. OTOH.... I think Mrs May would be v impressive. She won't stand any nonsense,.. just about the longest standing Home Sec and with virtually no crises on her cv.

Eagle would be better than Corbyn because she would have a full choice of Labour MPs to put in her shadow cabinet. The country needs an opposition to hold this government, and the next one, to account. The final Brexit deal is going to shape our future for many years, so we need the best one possible. It is also going to fail to deliver much of what the Leave campaign promised. If the whole debate is essentially an internal Tory conversation many millions of people are going to be forgotten.

Eagle can't win a general election, but she can deliver a credible opposition. Corbyn can do neither. Labour members, though, have no interest in that. Corbyn is going nowhere.

The Labour membership is divided on Corbyn. It may not be enough to get rid of him and save Labour, but don't tar all members with the same brush.

I understand and apologise. It's short hand. It's sane Labour members I feel most sorry for. It's doing my head in and I'm on the outside. What it must be like on the inside doesn't bear thinking about.

I noticed that last night the Holborn & St Pancras CLP voted against a motion in support of Corbyn. No £3ers involved, of course. It'll be different for the leadership election - and that's the problem.

A sane Labour friend of mine (properly, not this £3 nonsense) specifically in order to vote against Corbyn. I suspect his continued membership will depend on the outcome; I think he sees this as the last chance to get his party back.

It says something though that Angela Eagle is the vehicle for such a moment.

Beggars can't be choosers.

They could if Hilary Benn, Tom Watson or one of about half-a-dozen other top-level candidates manned up. If Labour wants a woman leader, Yvette Cooper would be a better option.

All of whom have such bad political judgement that they just enthusiastically backed the "Remain" campaign. Why should I trust they know how to win an election, if they mis-judged the public mood on the EU so badly?

51.9 to 48.1

anotherDave said:

OldKingCole said:

tlg86 said:

Fourth like Crabb.

Crabb’s got to have a fair amount of the Welsh equivalent of chutzpah (English usage) to even stand!

Did see if I could find an equivalent word, but there doesn’t appear to be one!

I don't understand why Messrs Crabb and Fox are standing. They know they're not contenders, so they're just wasting everyone's time. Irresponsible.

Agree but I don't think it affects the timetable because the voting date for members will be the same.

Conor Pope ‏@Conorpope 10h10 hours ago
In two and a half years I've worked here, LabourList readership has been - roughly speaking - a decent guide to the average Labour activist.

Conor Pope ‏@Conorpope 10h10 hours ago
When I saw traffic for the list of MPs who had abstained on the Welfare Bill last year it became clear how much Corbyn was going to win by.

Conor Pope ‏@Conorpope 10h10 hours ago
Judging by the most popular stories this week, if there was a leadership contest tomorrow he would walk it at a stroll.

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

May I say that the posts from the new poster (Gavingall?) on financial services and passporting are very good.

The passport is needed by the financial services sector but it is not the only thing which matters. Germany has one of the weakest regulators in the world, the BaFin, and it is currently concerned with Deutsche Bank, a bank described to me as "virtually unregulatable" and in a whole heap of trouble right now. Germany neither understands nor likes investment banking and will struggle to recreate the environment which London had. Its data protection laws are Kafkaesque.

France similarly does not understand markets. Indeed it is hostile to what it sees as an Anglo-Saxon market view. Its employment laws make life difficult for employers and recent judicial decisions such as the one awarding Kerviel (who defrauded SocGen of 5 billion euros) compensation for being unfairly dismissed are not likely to encourage banks to have any more than the bare minimum needed to access the passport. Its tax system is not hugely encouraging either.


Dublin has some advantages but is simply not large enough to support a sector like London (remember all the trouble the Irish banks caused) and the same applies to Scotland.

Clearly the passport matters to London but the strength which London has built up is made of many factors. Sure other countries would like to have the nice stuff ie the tax revenues but the laws they pass often seem designed to cut down or eliminate the very activities giving rise to those revenues.

One other word of caution. All banks are now busy offshoring, onshoring and reducing their costs because of the challenging market and regulatory conditions and this has been happening for a while. Don't assume that all of this is linked to Brexit. Much of it would be happening anyway.

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

Eagle's voice isn't strong enough and she talks too fast and isn't dynamic enough imho. If she becomes Labour leader, Labour are only slightly better off than with Corbyn. She could not imho win an election, but she might stave off disaster, which cannot be ignored. OTOH.... I think Mrs May would be v impressive. She won't stand any nonsense,.. just about the longest standing Home Sec and with virtually no crises on her cv.

Eagle would be better than Corbyn because she would have a full choice of Labour MPs to put in her shadow cabinet. The country needs an opposition to hold this government, and the next one, to account. The final Brexit deal is going to shape our future for many years, so we need the best one possible. It is also going to fail to deliver much of what the Leave campaign promised. If the whole debate is essentially an internal Tory conversation many millions of people are going to be forgotten.

Eagle can't win a general election, but she can deliver a credible opposition. Corbyn can do neither. Labour members, though, have no interest in that. Corbyn is going nowhere.

The Labour membership is divided on Corbyn. It may not be enough to get rid of him and save Labour, but don't tar all members with the same brush.

I understand and apologise. It's short hand. It's sane Labour members I feel most sorry for. It's doing my head in and I'm on the outside. What it must be like on the inside doesn't bear thinking about.

I noticed that last night the Holborn & St Pancras CLP voted against a motion in support of Corbyn. No £3ers involved, of course. It'll be different for the leadership election - and that's the problem.

And not just because of Corbyn's obvious unsuitability: they are in this position because the other wing of their party is equally bankrupt. John Harris in the Guardian today should be a must read for all labour supporters.

Quite. This is a story of the weakness of Labour's right more than the strength of the Labour left. Labour rightwingers correctly criticise the Labour hard left for being stuck in the 80s but they themselves have not moved their thinking on since the turn of the millennium.

<

anotherDave said:

OldKingCole said:

tlg86 said:

Fourth like Crabb.

Crabb’s got to have a fair amount of the Welsh equivalent of chutzpah (English usage) to even stand!

Did see if I could find an equivalent word, but there doesn’t appear to be one!

I don't understand why Messrs Crabb and Fox are standing. They know they're not contenders, so they're just wasting everyone's time. Irresponsible.

Robert Carr said much the same thing about a 49-year-old junior cabinet minister standing against Heath in 1975. His friends laughed loudly.

Within the next 48 hours, he had been made acting leader following Heath's defeat and then sacked altogether by that same junior minister.

Underestimate junior ministers at your peril. In particular, Fox standing is a real blow to Johnson's hopes.

daodao said:

Beliefs and values inculcated in childhood last until one's dying day.

They used to say that about voting Labour too.

We were told that same-sex marriage would drive millions of Tories into the arms of UKIP. In reality, I heard one person mention it on the doorsteps last year - and it still wasn't changing their vote.

People are far more "meh" about sexuality today. Thankfully.

asjohnstone said:

It's all a bit game of thrones, it's all female rulers there too

One of whom is a bit sociopathic and the other is psycopathic (and dim), I feel confident our options will be better.

Indigo said:

williamglenn said:

dugarbandier said:

MTimT said:

JennyFreeman said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

A perfect illustration of the problem -

Stephen Sackur on hard Talk is interviewing a French woman in the government ( minister of the environment Segoline Royal) asking about whether Marine Le Pen will ever get a referendum in France, and how are they going to dissuade her?

"Well, we won't make david cameron's mistake, I can assure you. We are not going to have a referendum for France's exit from the European Union, I can assure you."

Sackur asks if that means they will never allow the French people to have a fundamental say in whether they want to be in the European Union. You don't believe in democracy?

"We are not going to do that. We believe in democracy, but we believe in the right question and the right answer. The right question is not whether you want to stay in or out of Europe.

The right question is what kind of Europe do you want?

Indeed. The people are too thick to work out what question is most important to them.

The sneering snobbishness of the metropolitan elites is something to behold. The people have given them a good kicking in Britain and will do so in other countries for as long as there's this sort of supercilious attitude.

Let's hope so.

It's amazing that people like Farage, Boris and Trump can somehow be considered not to be members of metropolitan elites

I wouldn't like to put them all in the same category, but I believe Champagne Populism is the new Champagne Socialism. Too many privileged people claiming to speak for the common man when they really just want to score points against members of their own class.

72% of Common men just spoke on behalf of the common man, and everyone is trying as hard as they can to brush it under the carpet and not give them what they asked for.

Untrue. Very few people seem to e suggesting we don't Leave, and leaving was the only thing we definitively asked for. What form of leave we'd like is pure conjecture, and so anything goes as long as it fits under the broad leave banner

"So, Mrs May, what did you during the referendum?"

"I hid. That was because Brexit doesn't interest me much one-way-or the other".

"So why should you lead our exit negotiations?"

"I work hard, and I don't drink."

The tory activists may be impressed. For Leavers, not so much...

ydoethur said:

anotherDave said:

OldKingCole said:

tlg86 said:

Fourth like Crabb.

Crabb’s got to have a fair amount of the Welsh equivalent of chutzpah (English usage) to even stand!

Did see if I could find an equivalent word, but there doesn’t appear to be one!

I don't understand why Messrs Crabb and Fox are standing. They know they're not contenders, so they're just wasting everyone's time. Irresponsible.

Robert Carr said much the same thing about a 49-year-old junior cabinet minister standing against Heath in 1975. His friends laughed loudly.

Within the next 48 hours, he had been made acting leader following Heath's defeat and then sacked altogether by that same junior minister.

Underestimate junior ministers at your peril. In particular, Fox standing is a real blow to Johnson's hopes.

I just feel that this contest, with the Leave negotiations being held up by the result, needs to be resolved asap. Not a good time to be showboating.

Mrs Thatcher, as I recall represented a particular faction within the party. I'm not aware that that is true for Dr Fox, or Mr Crabb.

PlatoSaid said:

blackburn63 said:

OldKingCole said:

ManWithThePlan said:

logical_song said:

ManWithThePlan said:

I am still tickled by the idea that London's financial sector will be shared out between Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. The whole advantage of a financial cluster is that it exists in one place where all the other firms and talent is. Amsterdam is not even a second tier financial cluster. The bankers will surely love the 49% income tax rate in Paris with a wealth tax on top. And Frankfurt is one of the most boring cities in the world. People dread going on business trips there, God forbid living there. Meanwhile London will increase the two thirds of financial service exports to non-EU countries as we sign more trade deals, and we can also scrap the banker bonus cap.

I wonder how many wwc Leave voters realised that they were voting for bankers bonuses to be increased.

Very few probably, which is why UKIP will surge and accelerate Labour's demise.

You mean you’ve got to be really thick to vote UKIP?

No, I DON”T think the WWC are; Poorly informed, perhaps.

I can't persuade people to agree with me, they are thick

You've been reading David Aaronovitch in The Times? He's totally lost it. Now he's arguing down in the comments with those who believe in democracy more than he does. It's really quite remarkably entertaining given 98% are WTF Are You On?

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-anger-is-so-great-we-must-have-a-new-vote-wx6s953z7

There's certainly an awful lot of supposedly intelligent commentators showing their true colours in the past few days. That they, the elites, should run things and the little people should just shut up and do what they're told.

Well, the people have had their say - thanks Mr Cameron - and they've spoken, so deal with it.

daodao said:

DavidL said:

daodao said:

FPT:

The PLP don't get it if they think that choosing a dyke as leader will endear them to older socially conservative WWC voters in the North of England and Midlands, whose views led to the Leave result last week. She also has very limited appeal to the Labour selectorate, who placed her 4th in the last deputy leadership contest. She is the wrong candidate to challenge JC.

If the Labour party aren't careful, UKIP could win swathes of seats in former Labour heartlands, like the SNP have done in the West of Scotland, at the next GE. I would personally prefer Farage as LOTO, to hold the new Con government's feet to the fire and deliver on the key arguments for Brexit, namely sovereignty and effective control and restriction of immigration. He made an excellent speech in the EU "parliament" the other day.

Re other elections in the next year or so, Trump has a very good chance of becoming POTUS, as Clinton is an appalling candidate. I wouldn't bet against M_LP in France either.

What on earth does her sexual orientation have to do with anything? Depressing that sort of comment is even still thought let alone made.

Anyone over 60 in the UK was brought up in era when homosexuality was a criminal offence and regarded as a cardinal sin. It is still regarded as the latter by Muslims (and Jews). If anyone was unfortunately afflicted by same-sex desire, it was the done thing to keep quiet and not be in the public eye. Beliefs and values inculcated in childhood last until one's dying day.

Plenty of over 60 homosexuals out there, so i guess that inculcating didn't take for some.

Aren't most of the Scottish party leaders gay? Doesn't seem to do them harm, and while Scotland lines to think it's really different, it's social attitudes are not that different from the rest of us, thank goodness.

And even if we accept the premise it might prove a problem, I for one had no idea of Eagles orientation, and who woukd use it against her in a campaign even obliquely?

alex. said:

If the Labour membership "electorate" was broadly the same people as last year, then you would have to think that Corbyn would surely struggle against a single candidate. He got 60% against a divided opposition, which doesn't seem insurmountable. However the Labour membership is a movable feast because of this £3 thing.

One minor point though - I assume the 3quidders from last time do not have a vote this time unless they pay up again. I wonder how many of them will be aware of that and be surprised when the ballot paper doesn't drop through the letterbox?

We 3 quidders are still on the mailing list. I get emails most weeks, most days during the referendum.

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So:

Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb are declared runners. Boris Johnson and Theresa May are certain to enter the race today. Will there be any others? Andrea Leadsom and Nicky Morgan have flirted with the idea but are they actually going to stand? Any others?

I'm guessing Nicky Morgan will have had a slap from the Reality Monster.

Andrea probably gets a more sympathetic "I'd love to, but..." Maybe some people will vote for others but on the proviso that Andrea is given a top finance job. She deserves that.

Is the MPs vote a secret ballot?

MikeK said:

Indigo said:

MikeK said:

nunu said:

not_on_fire said:

I'd never heard of or seen Eagle until the referendum debate, but she sounded like a village idiot in that one. Not convinced she'd be any improvement on Corbyn.

May would destroy her.

Yep, Eagle - a person so misnamed would be hard to find - is really a pigeon sent to be prey for the May Jubjub bird or the Boris Bandersnatch.

I think you might have those around the wrong way, according to Hunting of the Snark a Jubjub bird is a "desperate bird that lives in perpetual passion", now does that sound more like Boris or May

A Bandersnatch meanwhile is "swift moving creature with snapping jaws, capable of extending its neck"

You really must go to my biology class. On the door is a notice: Jabberwocky. Do enter.

The Bandersnatch is frumious. A portmanteau of fuming and furious. More May than Boris I would suggest. Brillig debate.

david_kendrick1 said:

"So, Mrs May, what did you during the referendum?"

"I hid. That was because Brexit doesn't interest me much one-way-or the other".

"So why should you lead our exit negotiations?"

"I work hard, and I don't drink."

The tory activists may be impressed. For Leavers, not so much...

Not that I agree with her, but I think she is a leaver. Her speech on the ECJ/ECHR was a proxy and as close as she could come to disloyalty whilst keeping her job. She stayed with remain for the same reason that Boris joined leave - they both thought it was to their advantage and they both thought that remain would win. The one thing I am confident of is that their two personal votes in the Referendum were cast in opposite directions!

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So:

Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb are declared runners. Boris Johnson and Theresa May are certain to enter the race today. Will there be any others? Andrea Leadsom and Nicky Morgan have flirted with the idea but are they actually going to stand? Any others?

I think that is plenty. Indeed in the case of Fox and Morgan rather too many.

I am not a fan of Liam Fox but he speaks for a grouping of the Conservative party. It would be helpful to see its Parliamentary strength.

I wonder whether we might see one or two more unanticipated names come forward. Jeremy Hunt was musing on his own position. Has Phillip Hammond yet said what he is doing?