politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Team Corbyn shouldn’t assume that he’ll get “three quidder
Comments
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Madness.RobD said:
Immediately after the referendum results was probably not the best time for a new chancellor to take over!GIN1138 said:
Osborne should have resigned at 7am on Monday morning.geoffw said:Charles Moore calling for Osborne to go.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/time-george-osborne-go-go-now/
Too right, he should.0 -
Anyone else slightly surprised to see Johnny Mercer backing Stephen Crabb?0
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It is the Leavers that are all backtracking over article 50 and actually checking out.MarqueeMark said:
So the EU = Hotel California. We can check out, but we can never leave.surbiton said:
The market is beginning to get the feeling:williamglenn said:
Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet. If/when it is, then the calculus will change.MaxPB said:
Yes but I remember reading that the hostile nations would all round on the UK and offer Scotland amazing terms to join and bring about the end of the Union.anotherDave said:
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.MaxPB said:
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?MarkHopkins said:
The French president and Spanish prime minister have both said they are opposed to the EU negotiating potential membership for Scotland.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
either, Art.50 will never be invoked,
or, an arrangement, [ EEA / EFTA / whatever ] will be cobbled which will the economics will be very close to what it is now.
Without telling the voters that at any point.
You think there won't be hell to pay for that?
No, we can leave, with a Tory soft Leaver at the helm. Or in 2020 we can have Nigel Farage ripping out the drip and the monitors and walking out the hospital, regardless of the prognosis...
To me and many of the Leavers the EEA looks very much like being in the EU only without a say on decisions.
I cannot see the Faragists happy with that.0 -
They really are not "fizzing with anger" the young in Islington might be but they don't vote. A split Labour party is not going to win Kensington nor is a united one. Not going to happen. Period.HHemmelig said:
Kensington wasn't in Surrey last time I checked.nunu said:
Hahaha. Never going to happen, Surrey will never vote for Labour they just don't care about the E.U that much, no one apart from the non voting hippy Islington types do.HHemmelig said:
Perhaps so, but we may also see swathes of the Tories' richest constituencies turning from blue to red - eg Labour might lose Barnsley but gain Kensington.Pong said:
vs. UKIP's "leave means leave"surbiton said:
I have already suggested a new name for the nascent Party. Progressive Democrats incorporating the Lib Dems. Old LD gets 200 nominations, exLab gets 450.Slackbladder said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 51 secs51 seconds ago
Supportive message coming from the unions, and letter from 240 Labour councillors BACKING Corbyn
They automatically become HM Opposition. Win the next election on a manifesto commitment that "we will not invoke Article 50".
Ironically save the City of London.
On the electoral map, huge swathes of England and Wales would turn from red to purple.
The young/middle aged rich city professional demographic which makes up a large chunk of the Tory vote in central and south west London is fizzing with anger. Such seats where the Lib Dems put up a strong challenge (eg Kingston, Twickenham, perhaps even Richmond) will be very hard for the Tories to hold IMO. Battersea, Putney and Wimbledon also vulnerable if Labour put someone vaguely electable into the leadership. Long term it's hard to see even Westminster and K&C voting for a Tory party that has sold out to the loony populist right and trashed the interests of the ultra wealthy.0 -
The Tories I know seem to be pretty comfortable with this idea.SouthamObserver said:
I'd love that. If Labour did come to its senses - not likely, I grant - it would not only salvage something from a very bad situation, but mean no Tory governments for the rest of my life :-)MaxPB said:
Just want to get your opinion? Would you be happy if we just went for EEA membership no modifications? Keeping full membership of the single market and no modifications to free movement?surbiton said:
The market is beginning to get the feeling:williamglenn said:
Article 50 hasn't been triggered yet. If/when it is, then the calculus will change.MaxPB said:
Yes but I remember reading that the hostile nations would all round on the UK and offer Scotland amazing terms to join and bring about the end of the Union.anotherDave said:
I believe the french also have a Corsican separatist movement to keep in check.MaxPB said:
Lol, wasn't it supposed to be the Frogs that wanted to shaft the Union by offering Scotland favourable terms to stay in?MarkHopkins said:
The French president and Spanish prime minister have both said they are opposed to the EU negotiating potential membership for Scotland.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980
No one wants to sour the negotiations. The French want to ensure we keep free movement and we want to keep free trade in goods and services, the deal is there to be done.
either, Art.50 will never be invoked,
or, an arrangement, [ EEA / EFTA / whatever ] will be cobbled which will the economics will be very close to what it is now.0 -
He needs to go for his own health apart from anything else. He looks like a burst blister.GIN1138 said:
Osborne should have resigned at 7am on Monday morning.geoffw said:Charles Moore calling for Osborne to go.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/time-george-osborne-go-go-now/
Too right, he should.0 -
Top heavy party, wonder how she expects it to be funded. MP salary sacrifice till GE then its fookedbigjohnowls said:Mary Honeyball MEP.
So what is the immediate future of the Labour Party? There is a real possibility of Corbyn getting on the ballot paper and being re-elected. At that stage 200 MPs may form a new party. And if need be I will join them.
Oh dear how sad never mind0 -
This Labour leadership market could be quite horrific market for some of us, consider some or all of the following might happen to bugger up this market
1) The Labour leadership election might be in 2020
2) Most of the Parliamentary Party (and most of the contenders) might bugger off and form a new party
3) The UK might break up in the next few years
4) Tories might be led by someone who has delivered an entirely avoidable deep recession, thus making Labour nailed onto win the next general election, so Jez ain't going to give up
5) There might be a general election in a few months time0 -
You misunderstand. That is exactly what I am saying.MaxPB said:
Isn't it just easier to get an amicable agreement to join EFTA and stay in the EEA, rather than using legal machinations to force our membership on them? I don't see what the issue is, the EU are going to try and bounce us into the EEA solution anyway. I don't see why we should get hostile over it.Richard_Tyndall said:
So how did the previous EFTA states move to the EU without renegotiation of the treaty?Richard_Nabavi said:
Why should it annoy me? I agree. We'll still be signatories, of course. We'll still be a Contracting Party. So what? That won't make us an EFTA state for the purposes of this agreement.Richard_Tyndall said:<
I know this really annoys you but it is a fact. No signatory can be removed from a treaty without being in breach of the terms. If they are forced out the whole treaty ceases to exist.
I''ve no idea why you can't understand the fact the we are signatories IN OUR CAPACITY AS AN EU MEMBER STATE, and the three EFTA states named in the treaty are on the other side of the agreement. Of course, the agreement will now have to be changed whatever happens.
Do go check but you will find that there was no renegotiation in spite of their change of status.
More importantly there was no amendment to the treaty. All amendments including reasons are listed at the start of the treaty. Each time a new member joins the EU there is an amendment. There is no amendment for countries moving from EFTA to the EU.
And the reason? Because as I have kept repeating each individual state is a contracting party and cannot be removed unless they are in breach of the treaty. Moving from one organisation to the other clearly does not constitute a breach.
It is Richard N who is saying that is not possible and that the EU members will stop it - or at least use it as an opportunity to change the Agreement. All I am doing is pointing out he is wrong and we can do exactly as you suggest.0 -
BBC Breaking News Verified account @BBCBreaking · 3m3 minutes ago
Deputy leader of Labour party Tom Watson won't challenge Jeremy Corbyn's leadership but expects leadership election http://bbc.in/294GtJF
I think there is value at ~ 25/1 on Watson now.
I think there is more than a 4% chance Corbyn stands and wins the election, then all bets are off.0 -
Then again, Farron only needs to piss off five people to lose a no confidence vote among his MPs.Pulpstar said:
Why would anyone bet on next Lib Dem leader ?TheScreamingEagles said:Posted without comment.
Total matched so far on the various next party leader markets
Next Con Leader: £629,963
Next Lab Leader: £94,100
Next Lib Dem Leader: £33 (thirty-three pounds)
Tim is going nowhere and he faces no challengers.
I'm sure Corbyn could give him a few tips.0 -
YouGov
"most British people (58%) oppose holding a second referendum. This includes not only 91% of Leave voters, but also 29% of Remain voters. 11% don't know."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/little-support-second-referendum/
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Me too, but not quite perfectly for those who voted for lower immigration. Unless something can be cobbled together within EEA to dampen the numbers down.Richard_Tyndall said:
It has been my aim for many years. It would suit me - and I think the country - perfectly.MaxPB said:
If we end up in the EEA it will have been worth it. Business will be happy, Labour voters unhappy, regaining sovereignty over our laws, no more ECJ. We can make it work.CopperSulphate said:I'm starting to think the brexit result has been absolutely perfect.
Retaining free trade and movement with the EU whilst regaining national sovereignty, the ability to sign free trade deals with the rest of the planet and Labour completely screwed for a generation. Oh and Scotland aren't going anywhere.
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Pretty certain £3 was me betting by accident on that market...Gravitation said:
Then again, Farron only needs to piss off five people to lose a no confidence vote among his MPs.Pulpstar said:
Why would anyone bet on next Lib Dem leader ?TheScreamingEagles said:Posted without comment.
Total matched so far on the various next party leader markets
Next Con Leader: £629,963
Next Lab Leader: £94,100
Next Lib Dem Leader: £33 (thirty-three pounds)
Tim is going nowhere and he faces no challengers.
I'm sure Corbyn could give him a few tips.0 -
Haha, what a bunch of bull from Labour.
I think NP is wrong, btw. Watson could not rationally or honourably stand without first resigning...0 -
Given pollsters accuracy these days, that could mean in reality anywhere from 25% to 75% of people don't want one ;-)anotherDave said:YouGov
"most British people (58%) oppose holding a second referendum. This includes not only 91% of Leave voters, but also 29% of Remain voters. 11% don't know."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/little-support-second-referendum/0 -
Not without the UK's agreement as a contracting party.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's no point repeating all this, but even if you were right, my original point earlier was that the Contracting Parties can agree whatever changes they like. If they jointly decide that the UK has some special status in the agreement then they can write that in.Richard_Tyndall said:So how did the previous EFTA states move to the EU without renegotiation of the treaty?
Do go check but you will find that there was no renegotiation in spite of their change of status.
More importantly there was no amendment to the treaty. All amendments including reasons are listed at the start of the treaty. Each time a new member joins the EU there is an amendment. There is no amendment for countries moving from EFTA to the EU.
And the reason? Because as I have kept repeating each individual state is a contracting party and cannot be removed unless they are in breach of the treaty. Moving from one organisation to the other clearly does not constitute a breach.0 -
Watson out to 16s now. WTF
Edit - This explains it, from the Beeb
The deputy leader of the Labour Party, Tom Watson, has told the BBC that he will not challenge Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership of the Labour Party.
However he said that he's been trying to negotiate Jeremy Corbyn's departure.
Mr Watson echoed the words of the Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, and said that Mr Corbyn can't lead the party like this.
He said he expects there to be a leadership election. And he said the party is facing an existential crisis and is in peril.0 -
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Is Watson the Platini to Corbyn's Blatter? Too afraid to actually take him on.TheWhiteRabbit said:BBC Breaking News Verified account @BBCBreaking · 3m3 minutes ago
Deputy leader of Labour party Tom Watson won't challenge Jeremy Corbyn's leadership but expects leadership election http://bbc.in/294GtJF
.
Yes, although the key would seem to be whether the Tories can be united on it - can most of them accept it, even at the risk of inflaming a vote for UKIP?geoffw said:
Me too, but not quite perfectly for those who voted for lower immigration.Richard_Tyndall said:
It has been my aim for many years. It would suit me - and I think the country - perfectly.MaxPB said:
If we end up in the EEA it will have been worth it. Business will be happy, Labour voters unhappy, regaining sovereignty over our laws, no more ECJ. We can make it work.CopperSulphate said:I'm starting to think the brexit result has been absolutely perfect.
Retaining free trade and movement with the EU whilst regaining national sovereignty, the ability to sign free trade deals with the rest of the planet and Labour completely screwed for a generation. Oh and Scotland aren't going anywhere.
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Charlie Falconer
They are welcome to it.SouthamObserver said:
As if he cares. This is what the far left have been working towards for the last 40 years - ownership of the Labour party.Jobabob said:
If he doesn't go, the party will split. It's that simple.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha. He is going to lead Labour to their next two electoral wipe outs.Jobabob said:Corbyn is surely fucked
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As I've been saying... The idea anybody will risk a second European referednum before 2100 is for the birds.anotherDave said:YouGov
"most British people (58%) oppose holding a second referendum. This includes not only 91% of Leave voters, but also 29% of Remain voters. 11% don't know."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/little-support-second-referendum/0 -
A friend of mine has an apt description - "he looks like a dropped cake..."Luckyguy1983 said:
He needs to go for his own health apart from anything else. He looks like a burst blister.GIN1138 said:
Osborne should have resigned at 7am on Monday morning.geoffw said:Charles Moore calling for Osborne to go.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/time-george-osborne-go-go-now/
Too right, he should.0 -
Project Fear must be sick.GIN1138 said:FTSE 100 closes ABOVE pre-Brexit level
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36660133
Surely emergency tax give away budget required0 -
Could conceivably be way after 2020 even. And it may be that Piers Corbyn is a shoe-in anyway - he's not even listed by BF.TheScreamingEagles said:This Labour leadership market could be quite horrific market for some of us, consider some or all of the following might happen to bugger up this market
1) The Labour leadership election might be in 2020
2) Most of the Parliamentary Party (and most of the contenders) might bugger off and form a new party
3) The UK might break up in the next few years
4) Tories might be led by someone who has delivered an entirely avoidable deep recession, thus making Labour nailed onto win the next general election, so Jez ain't going to give up
5) There might be a general election in a few months time
And then there's David Milliband... (my worst result)0 -
@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'0
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Put up or shut upTheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
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Labour has been in existential crisis and peril since at least 7th May 2015.TheScreamingEagles said:Watson out to 16s now. WTF
Edit - This explains it, from the Beeb
The deputy leader of the Labour Party, Tom Watson, has told the BBC that he will not challenge Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership of the Labour Party.
However he said that he's been trying to negotiate Jeremy Corbyn's departure.
Mr Watson echoed the words of the Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, and said that Mr Corbyn can't lead the party like this.
He said he expects there to be a leadership election. And he said the party is facing an existential crisis and is in peril.
Arguable it's been there since 18th September 2014.0 -
tlg86 said:
Anyone else slightly surprised to see Johnny Mercer backing Stephen Crabb?
I was more surprised to see him go Remain after his consultation exercise with his constituents was solidly for Leave...0 -
0
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I'm surprised anyone would want another one outside of extreme remainers - the more interesting data is whether more people would want it in the event of Scotland formally demanding to leave, or on the outcome of any deal.FrancisUrquhart said:class="Quote" rel="anotherDave">YouGov
"most British people (58%) oppose holding a second referendum. This includes not only 91% of Leave voters, but also 29% of Remain voters. 11% don't know."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/little-support-second-referendum/
)
Not a great deal, it would seem, if trustworthy, although I'd think more might support a second one if there was a majorly different deal (but only if asked months from now, and things were bad) rather than voting the terms of a deal, which is pretty pointless.
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Charming.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Put up or shut upTheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
Oh you were channelling Corbyn to the rebels0 -
What does it take for an MP to get deselected? They seem to be golden.MarqueeMark said:tlg86 said:Anyone else slightly surprised to see Johnny Mercer backing Stephen Crabb?
I was more surprised to see him go Remain after his consultation exercise with his constituents was solidly for Leave...
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Well with weak Sterling there is a lot of value in the FTSE 100 since a lot of companies in it earn in USD. If I was a US investor I'd look at the UK because you know Sterling isn't going to be this weak forever and if it does strengthen then you win doubly.GIN1138 said:FTSE 100 closes ABOVE pre-Brexit level
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-366601330 -
NopeMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Alistair, that's tasty. Have you hedged?
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As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.0
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I almost hope he does stick it out and win if, unlikely as it is, it provoked the party to split and see what happens - although the Tories don't look close to that and really we could do with them splitting and aproper realignment too.TheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
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Fish or cut baitTheScreamingEagles said:
Charming.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Put up or shut upTheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
Oh you were channelling Corbyn to the rebels0 -
Anything to prevent a snap GE during Labour's leadership election? Feels like it just wouldn't be cricket!TheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
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Mr. Alistair, brave of you. I'd say 'best of luck', but I don't want Farage to be PM.0
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Well if the government backs EEA membership you might get a good opportunity to do so.Alistair said:
NopeMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Alistair, that's tasty. Have you hedged?
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Less an amusing spoof, more a fly-on-the-wall documentary....FrancisUrquhart said:Not the best effort, but not bad by somebody.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w729u8mp_mQ0 -
?Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
The country voted Leave. Not Remain. Live with it.
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Is 'existential' the new 'literally'? For me it's just a signal of 'management speak imminent'.TheScreamingEagles said:Watson out to 16s now. WTF
Edit - This explains it, from the Beeb
The deputy leader of the Labour Party, Tom Watson, has told the BBC that he will not challenge Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership of the Labour Party.
However he said that he's been trying to negotiate Jeremy Corbyn's departure.
Mr Watson echoed the words of the Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, and said that Mr Corbyn can't lead the party like this.
He said he expects there to be a leadership election. And he said the party is facing an existential crisis and is in peril.0 -
A few weeks ago, I promised everyone in my non PB life that after June 24th, I would cut down on my interest in politics and focus on other things for a few months.
That's working out brilliantly so far.0 -
Electorally, that becomes possible if the UK joins the EEA with freedom of movement. Both the Tories and Labour face electoral humiliation and in Labour's case, it might be electoral oblivion.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Alistair, brave of you. I'd say 'best of luck', but I don't want Farage to be PM.
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My understanding, and it has lapsed of late, is that EU laws must be accepted or rejected by the EEA before being written into the EEA agreement (or not).Richard_Tyndall said:
Because we cannot be outvoted by anyone if we are in EFTA. There is no QMV and all votes have to be unanimous.TOPPING said:
Not for Richard. He is one of the Enlightened Ones that will happily accept the betrayal of the desires of the majority of the Leave voters (foreigners out) because he sees a more elegant solution in some supposed EEA arrangement.surbiton said:
One was no free movement of people.Richard_Tyndall said:
We have listed the advantages of leaving so many times before that I am not going to bother repeating them for you yet again.surbiton said:
If that is the case, then why Leave ?Richard_Tyndall said:
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.SeanT said:
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.SeanT said:That Credit Suisse prediction is just horrible.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
Although why being vetoed by Norway is a superior state of affairs to being vetoed by France, or outvoted by France and Poland, is anyone's guess.
Baring betrayal by the politicians we are now on our way out of the EU. This means that the decision on where to proceed must be made on behalf of all the electorate, not just the 23% who have said they would not want the EFTA route.
What happens if Norway and the UK differ on one particular EU law or another being written into the EEA agreement?0 -
To be fair at the moment, the likes of the Thick of It appear to be training films of competent government compared to reality.MarqueeMark said:
Less an amusing spoof, more a fly-on-the-wall documentary....FrancisUrquhart said:Not the best effort, but not bad by somebody.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w729u8mp_mQ0 -
non-PB life? What's that?...TheScreamingEagles said:A few weeks ago, I promised everyone in my non PB life that after June 24th, I would cut down on my interest in politics and focus on other things for a few months.
That's working out brilliantly so far.
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Many may want it, but the problems are twofold:GIN1138 said:
As I've been saying... The idea anybody will risk a second European referednum before 2100 is for the birds.anotherDave said:YouGov
"most British people (58%) oppose holding a second referendum. This includes not only 91% of Leave voters, but also 29% of Remain voters. 11% don't know."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/little-support-second-referendum/
a - On what grounds (plain rerun/brand new deal to remain/on deal with FOM etc but leave) is it to be justified and what question would it be specifically?
b - Risking it (no guarantee of a win/facing deselection/government collapse)0 -
While May wouldn't have been my first choice before Brexit, it is completely acceptable to me as well. Boris will have to deal with the poisoned chalice of the Leave bullshit while she could disown it relatively easily.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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FTPA since at least a few Tory MPs would consider that not fair play...RobD said:
Anything to prevent a snap GE during Labour's leadership election? Feels like it just wouldn't be cricket!TheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
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No, was Sir John in 1995!TheScreamingEagles said:
Charming.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Put up or shut upTheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
Oh you were channelling Corbyn to the rebels
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZifWqG2413U0 -
I was wondering about that, you just can't resist.TheScreamingEagles said:A few weeks ago, I promised everyone in my non PB life that after June 24th, I would cut down on my interest in politics and focus on other things for a few months.
That's working out brilliantly so far.0 -
There's a very obvious way round that.TheWhiteRabbit said:
FTPA since at least a few Tory MPs would consider that not fair play...RobD said:
Anything to prevent a snap GE during Labour's leadership election? Feels like it just wouldn't be cricket!TheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
Repeal The Fixed Term Parliament Act, The Tories possess a majority to do so.0 -
Blimey, turn my back for ten mins and Watson's out.0
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Mr. D, the Romans also thought Hannibal's tactics were unfair.0
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Well that's my point, you'd need a strong whip to see it through and kicking the Labour party while it's down is not going to assist with that.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a very obvious way round that.TheWhiteRabbit said:
FTPA since at least a few Tory MPs would consider that not fair play...RobD said:
Anything to prevent a snap GE during Labour's leadership election? Feels like it just wouldn't be cricket!TheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
Repeal The Fixed Term Parliament Act, The Tories possess a majority to do so.
The FTPA is normally not going to be a problem.0 -
Under QTWAIN, could Farron become Prime Minister?
As unlikely as it seems to go from 8 MPs to Downing Street this past year has seen a lot of unlikely events happen. What are the odds that the following could happen:
Corbyn (or a Corbynite like McDonnell) wins re-election
Mandatory reselection is pushed on the Labour Party as the Corbynites revenge on this failed coup.
Seeing the writing on the wall, and because of the failure of the SDP over a hundred Labour MPs defect to the Lib Dems, making them the second largest party and Farron is now Leader of the Opposition.
The Tories fail to agree and implement a Brexit in time for the next election.
Leader of the Opposition Farron leads a centrist Remain quasi-referendum campaign in the subsequent election.
Leave votes split between EEA-backing Tories and End Free Movement-backing UKIP. Rump Labour fading away to obscurity.
Lib Dems largest party at the election, Farron new Prime Minister.0 -
It's awful, people don't obsess over political minutiae. *shudder*RobD said:
non-PB life? What's that?...TheScreamingEagles said:A few weeks ago, I promised everyone in my non PB life that after June 24th, I would cut down on my interest in politics and focus on other things for a few months.
That's working out brilliantly so far.0 -
You've got it in a nutshell there. If Boris were PM every PMQs would start with a question about the extra £350 million a week for the NHS.MaxPB said:
While May wouldn't have been my first choice before Brexit, it is completely acceptable to me as well. Boris will have to deal with the poisoned chalice of the Leave bullshit while she could disown it relatively easily.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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McDonnell
Let's have a comradely debate about Labour leadership because at the moment the Tory party is "tearing itself apart"
HahahahahahaHahahahahahaHahahahahahaHahahahahahaHahahahahaha
HahahahahahaHahahahahaha
Oh my aching sides stop please stop it !!
Hahahahahaha0 -
Well, depends how many Tory MPs would consider it not fair play.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a very obvious way round that.TheWhiteRabbit said:
FTPA since at least a few Tory MPs would consider that not fair play...RobD said:
Anything to prevent a snap GE during Labour's leadership election? Feels like it just wouldn't be cricket!TheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
Repeal The Fixed Term Parliament Act, The Tories possess a majority to do so.0 -
We did vote Leave - there are many options within that label.anotherDave said:
?Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
The country voted Leave. Not Remain. Live with it.0 -
I'm in.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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That'll be if they start talking about the need for a synergistic or holistic approach to fix things.TudorRose said:
Is 'existential' the new 'literally'? For me it's just a signal of 'management speak imminent'.TheScreamingEagles said:Watson out to 16s now. WTF
Edit - This explains it, from the Beeb
The deputy leader of the Labour Party, Tom Watson, has told the BBC that he will not challenge Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership of the Labour Party.
However he said that he's been trying to negotiate Jeremy Corbyn's departure.
Mr Watson echoed the words of the Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, and said that Mr Corbyn can't lead the party like this.
He said he expects there to be a leadership election. And he said the party is facing an existential crisis and is in peril.0 -
Probably the best thing to ever happen to Labour - cutting the union link would be rather good for them I feel. Of course a splinter party would have good relations with the unions, but no longer be in their pocket. (I'm by no means suggesting that the link is all bad, but merely that its worst aspects are very bad)kle4 said:
I almost hope he does stick it out and win if, unlikely as it is, it provoked the party to split and see what happens - although the Tories don't look close to that and really we could do with them splitting and aproper realignment too.TheScreamingEagles said:@bbclaurak: Corbyn source leadership contest is 'the only way this will be settled'
I'm sort of hoping that the more fruitcake like elements of UKIP will continue in their own way, but that the rational people will come back to the mainstream parties. If on the left the fruitcake element went off with Corbyn into the sunset that'd be fine too.
In both cases the unfairly derided (by me) fruitcakers will have done the country a service in putting some elements of their views into the mainstream, but those issues won't now be the inhibitors that they've been in the past.
So well done Mr Farage for example. I'm sort of hoping that we won't hear a great deal from you again, but if we do I'm hoping that we take a hard look at whatever issues sooner and more seriously than we did with the EU.
I know I'm going to get ripped to pieces for this, but I think when this has all settled down that Farage deserves a bit of recognition in some way or other. He has done an astonishing thing, and has given voice to the concerns of many people. I don't want him anywhere near the EU-exit negotiating table though.0 -
Mr. Moses, the mood in the PCP must be odd at that moment. They've got their own leadership election and a serious issue to address, yet their principal opposition appears to be trying to eat its own head.0
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We should negotiate for EEA+ migration changes so that the EU backs EEA as their position. If we try to start with EEA as our position we will be negotiated down from there. Then we can fall back to EEA if necessary.MaxPB said:
While May wouldn't have been my first choice before Brexit, it is completely acceptable to me as well. Boris will have to deal with the poisoned chalice of the Leave bullshit while she could disown it relatively easily.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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To be honest I haven't stopped laughing since the leader of TSSA said that mass walkouts were a disgrace...Moses_ said:McDonnell
Let's have a comradely debate about Labour leadership because at the moment the Tory party is "tearing itself apart"
HahahahahahaHahahahahahaHahahahahahaHahahahahahaHahahahahaha
HahahahahahaHahahahahaha
Oh my aching sides stop please stop it !!
Hahahahahaha0 -
And May could destroy Boris' career by handing him the keys to Number 11 so he can (fail to) deliver the Leave prospectus.ThomasNashe said:
You've got it in a nutshell there. If Boris were PM every PMQs would start with a question about the extra £350 million a week for the NHS.MaxPB said:
While May wouldn't have been my first choice before Brexit, it is completely acceptable to me as well. Boris will have to deal with the poisoned chalice of the Leave bullshit while she could disown it relatively easily.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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If anyone does not accept it then it is vetoed.TOPPING said:
My understanding, and it has lapsed of late, is that EU laws must be accepted or rejected by the EEA before being written into the EEA agreement (or not).Richard_Tyndall said:
Because we cannot be outvoted by anyone if we are in EFTA. There is no QMV and all votes have to be unanimous.TOPPING said:
Not for Richard. He is one of the Enlightened Ones that will happily accept the betrayal of the desires of the majority of the Leave voters (foreigners out) because he sees a more elegant solution in some supposed EEA arrangement.surbiton said:
One was no free movement of people.Richard_Tyndall said:
We have listed the advantages of leaving so many times before that I am not going to bother repeating them for you yet again.surbiton said:
If that is the case, then why Leave ?Richard_Tyndall said:
There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.SeanT said:
But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.SeanT said:That Credit Suisse prediction is just horrible.
We have to accept this is a major fucking mistake. A Tory must man up and say Nah, we're not doing it, and take the electoral hit. Or offer a revote, where voters can choose the three options, FULL LEAVE, EEA, STAY
The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins
If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
Although why being vetoed by Norway is a superior state of affairs to being vetoed by France, or outvoted by France and Poland, is anyone's guess.
Baring betrayal by the politicians we are now on our way out of the EU. This means that the decision on where to proceed must be made on behalf of all the electorate, not just the 23% who have said they would not want the EFTA route.
What happens if Norway and the UK differ on one particular EU law or another being written into the EEA agreement?
Norway has recently done this with proposals to include oil and gas regulation in the EEA Agreement.
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Mr. Rose, Labour simply needs to augment its message distribution mechanisms and enhance internal party morale via a graduated process of reconciliation and mutual acceptance.0
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Don't forget neoclassical endogenous growth theory.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rose, Labour simply needs to augment its message distribution mechanisms and enhance internal party morale via a graduated process of reconciliation and mutual acceptance.
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Tim Farron is doing a splendid job as Lib Dem Leader and does not justify a no confidence vote.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'd think these were ideal circumstances for a Lib Dem fightback, if they don't start polling in the double digits soon he might face a leadership challenge.Pulpstar said:
Why would anyone bet on next Lib Dem leader ?TheScreamingEagles said:Posted without comment.
Total matched so far on the various next party leader markets
Next Con Leader: £629,963
Next Lab Leader: £94,100
Next Lib Dem Leader: £33 (thirty-three pounds)
Tim is going nowhere and he faces no challengers.
2016 election results
Wales – Lost 4 and down to 1 seat, overtaken by UKIP
London Assembly lost 1 and down to 1 seat, overtaken by Greens and UKIP
Scotland, held at 5 seats but overtaken by Greens
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Sounds about perfect to me.TOPPING said:
I'm in.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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I think what would be funny would be her offering him one of the following: Culture Sec, Overseas Development or Northern Ireland ...MaxPB said:
And May could destroy Boris' career by handing him the keys to Number 11 so he can (fail to) deliver the Leave prospectus.ThomasNashe said:
You've got it in a nutshell there. If Boris were PM every PMQs would start with a question about the extra £350 million a week for the NHS.MaxPB said:
While May wouldn't have been my first choice before Brexit, it is completely acceptable to me as well. Boris will have to deal with the poisoned chalice of the Leave bullshit while she could disown it relatively easily.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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We can try but we'll never get it without giving up a big prize like the single market for services (including the financial passport).ManWithThePlan said:
We should negotiate for EEA+ migration changes so that the EU backs EEA as their position. If we try to start with EEA as our position we will be negotiated down from there. Then we can fall back to EEA if necessary.MaxPB said:
While May wouldn't have been my first choice before Brexit, it is completely acceptable to me as well. Boris will have to deal with the poisoned chalice of the Leave bullshit while she could disown it relatively easily.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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In contrast Mrs JackW has allowed me greater access to the site as she reflected that she hadn't see me laugh so much in weeks subsequent to the events of Friday morning.TheScreamingEagles said:A few weeks ago, I promised everyone in my non PB life that after June 24th, I would cut down on my interest in politics and focus on other things for a few months.
That's working out brilliantly so far.
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Mr. Freggles, utilisation of neoclassical endogenous growth theory will improve the Labour Party's broad economic profile whilst streamlining its communication methodology.0
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Hmmm. Wheels coming off the Remainiac Stirring Wagon.
Nippy Nicky given the brush off by Spain.
(PM): France comfirms that the UK Border Agreement will not he cancelled.
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Tipping point..... Falconer must quit now.
Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor 59s60 seconds ago
Angela Eagle will NOT challenge Jeremy Corbyn. She will only stand when/if there is a contest. "It's a Mexican stand-off", says senior MP.0 -
bravely bold Sir Robin rode forth from Camelot...
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/7482042633404129280 -
Simple solution: Give it to the NHS.ThomasNashe said:
You've got it in a nutshell there. If Boris were PM every PMQs would start with a question about the extra £350 million a week for the NHS.MaxPB said:
While May wouldn't have been my first choice before Brexit, it is completely acceptable to me as well. Boris will have to deal with the poisoned chalice of the Leave bullshit while she could disown it relatively easily.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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I only adopt an holistic approach to fixing things when dealing with leaking buckets or roofskle4 said:
That'll be if they start talking about the need for a synergistic or holistic approach to fix things.TudorRose said:
Is 'existential' the new 'literally'? For me it's just a signal of 'management speak imminent'.TheScreamingEagles said:Watson out to 16s now. WTF
Edit - This explains it, from the Beeb
The deputy leader of the Labour Party, Tom Watson, has told the BBC that he will not challenge Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership of the Labour Party.
However he said that he's been trying to negotiate Jeremy Corbyn's departure.
Mr Watson echoed the words of the Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, and said that Mr Corbyn can't lead the party like this.
He said he expects there to be a leadership election. And he said the party is facing an existential crisis and is in peril.0 -
That is my presumption. I'm expecting a "Great Betrayal " narrative before the next election for UKIP. That would offer far vakue on the lay then. A snap General Election will mess me up think.MaxPB said:
Well if the government backs EEA membership you might get a good opportunity to do so.Alistair said:
NopeMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Alistair, that's tasty. Have you hedged?
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Who's got the stomach for the fight? Come on stalking horses, this is your moment in history.Scrapheap_as_was said:Tipping point..... Falconer must quit now.
Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor 59s60 seconds ago
Angela Eagle will NOT challenge Jeremy Corbyn. She will only stand when/if there is a contest. "It's a Mexican stand-off", says senior MP.0 -
another cynical lie from the remainers...TheScreamingEagles said:A few weeks ago, I promised everyone in my non PB life that after June 24th, I would cut down on my interest in politics and focus on other things for a few months.
That's working out brilliantly so far.0 -
I would also take that.Richard_Tyndall said:
Sounds about perfect to me.TOPPING said:
I'm in.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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Woodcock as stalking horse? He's never stopped having a go at Jezza.0
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I think Sarah Smith's summary on the BBC News pretty much gets the Scottish picture right (and she is a strong anti-SNP advocate).
Either Nicola gets a deal and keeps Scotland in the UK while the rest of the UK leaves and comes back a hero. Or she can't get agreement on a deal and has an overwhelming mandate for a second referendum.
It's win/win.
Spain and France's statements today (from their doomed and soon to be replaced leaders) only hasten the time scale on a second referendum.
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Can't do that while maintaining EU subsidies and spending programmes in the UK. It was bullshit then and bullshit now. If they had stuck with £100m extra for the NHS it may have been deliverable. £350m per week is not.Philip_Thompson said:
Simple solution: Give it to the NHS.ThomasNashe said:
You've got it in a nutshell there. If Boris were PM every PMQs would start with a question about the extra £350 million a week for the NHS.MaxPB said:
While May wouldn't have been my first choice before Brexit, it is completely acceptable to me as well. Boris will have to deal with the poisoned chalice of the Leave bullshit while she could disown it relatively easily.Jobabob said:As a patriot and a proud British citizen I am extremely dismayed by the way our country has descended into complete farce. I would take May + EEA + FOM now. Corbyn, Boris and their fellow narcissists should form their own party. Those of us who care about the health of our country should form another.
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It's worth remembering how this started:
In his weekly Daily Telegraph column, Johnson appeared to revive his support for a second referendum on Britain’s relationship with the EU even if the UK voted to leave.
The suggestion by the London mayor shows the influence of Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave campaign director and former special adviser to Michael Gove, who has suggested that Cameron should use a leave vote to demand better terms from the EU.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/22/david-cameron-ridicules-boris-johnsons-second-referendum-idea0 -
Eagle still at around 3. Eh?0
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Good grief. Is there no one in the Labour party willing to put their head above the parapet?0
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Bundestag seems to be going ballistic about the trade deal between Canada and the EU.
Junker has told German Parliament it has nothing to do with them and is an EU matter so butt out. Germans not taking well to being slapped down and heavily criticising Junker
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/europaeische-union/reaktion-auf-ceta-der-unglaublich-toerichte-juncker-14315300.html0 -
All down to Angie Eagle now then...
http://news.sky.com/story/1719317/tom-watson-will-not-challenge-corbyn-sources0 -
I'm sure at least 1 in 10 of those laughs was intended!JackW said:
In contrast Mrs JackW has allowed me greater access to the site as she reflected that she hadn't see me laugh so much in weeks subsequent to the events of Friday morning.TheScreamingEagles said:A few weeks ago, I promised everyone in my non PB life that after June 24th, I would cut down on my interest in politics and focus on other things for a few months.
That's working out brilliantly so far.0 -
Is Charlie Falconer still in?rottenborough said:Blimey, turn my back for ten mins and Watson's out.
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