politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Team Corbyn shouldn’t assume that he’ll get “three quidder
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The Times had a poll which suggested 64% of Labour members would still support Corbyn0
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In order to be able to damage our economy by cutting immigration we will damage it by losing passporting. Cunning.SouthamObserver said:So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D0 -
I think you meant Bankers, not Bakers.SouthamObserver said:So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
But it wouldn't only be the bankers who will be hurt, all those connected in the financial services industry will also be buggered senseless, and all those tax revenues are lost, and well that means spending cuts, instead of giving £350m a week extra to the NHS, Boris might have to take £350m a week away from the NHS0 -
If Corbyn wins again, surely Labour will split. Most of its MPs would be in a party led by someone they have very publicly rubbished.
If Corbyn loses will there be a left wing party? Seems likely
Either way if the tories can agree on a leader without too much division and manage Brexit halfway reasonably then it's looking great for them, no?
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Flying start by Sri Lanka. Looking at near 400 at their current rate.0
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Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.MaxPB said:
I don't think any Tory PM would sign up to that, the donors wouldn't be happy.SouthamObserver said:So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
We will accept free movement and keep our current single market status or we will fully leave and put up full immigration restrictions on EU migrants. Those are the two available options, anything else would be sub-optimal in one way or another.
You could easily tweak that to a job offer > £x, and an upper limit/transition period.0 -
I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/7481404440732344320 -
Those are not the two available options necessarily. Our EU friends can offer us, or decline to offer us, whatever they like. If they don't want to offer the full EEA Monty, no-one can force them to. Or if they want to offer the deal Southam described, that would be very hard indeed for a UK politician to decline.MaxPB said:I don't think any Tory PM would sign up to that, the donors wouldn't be happy.
We will accept free movement and keep our current single market status or we will fully leave and put up full immigration restrictions on EU migrants. Those are the two available options, anything else would be sub-optimal in one way or another.
This is a God-awful mess by any standard.0 -
Indy Ref 2 sorts it.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/7481404440732344320 -
And if the UK ceases to exist before BREXIT ?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/7481404440732344320 -
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.anotherDave said:Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
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Well that's the Union saved, at least for a while. The idea that Scotland could take over our opt-outs and vetoes was pie in the sky. Glad to see a dose of reality served.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/7481404440732344320 -
OK, my fantasy Labour snap GE EU/Immigration Section of the manifesto:
BREXIT POLICY
- Pause invocation of article 50 until at least Jan 2017.
- Gain a memo of understanding with EFTA to join and preserve EEA status
- Devise economic tests which are genuine indicators of economic crisis, and will need to be passed for Brexit to proceed.
- Invoke A50 when all three of the above are in place.
- If these conditions are not in place by Jan 2018, call a second referendum in which the options will be to 'Immediately trigger A50' or 'Suspend indefinitely A50 and remain in EU'.
MIGRATION / POPULATION POLICY:
- Make the case that falling working age population and increase in pensioner population make some level of immigration highly desirable and define and commit to publish every 2 years an ideal level of immigration that would serve long-term demographics. This level would maintains working / childbearing age population (on current pension age), and ultimately be consistent with a long-term stable population. 120-160k/yr is a likely initial range, but would not be treated as a committed target.
- Retain EFTA free movement, but make full use of benefit flexibility EFTA allows, to indirectly influence EU immigration.
(Fight for financial passporting in return, although relax about some FS leaving London in a controlled way)
- Target reduction in visa non-EU net immigration to around 50000 within 3 years
(Universities to retain 9k fee cap during transition, and transitional arrangements tbc for business)
- Introduction of variable pension age considered for those born after 5/4/61, and implemented in event of Brexit without EFTA. Pension age will be announced annually for individual age ranges, at least 10 years in advance of retirement date, with age variable by up to 4 months each year. (i.e. this will be an explicit price for any reduction in immigration)
- Note contribution of tax-paying immigration to deficit reduction, and say extra tax receipts from immigration will be split 50:50 between deficit reduction and extra services to support population growth until deficit is within target, then fully committed to extra services at that point.
- Budget pot to be set up from above for rapid funding for relief plans to areas and sectors particularly affected by immigration (e.g. the wider Fens / agriculture)
- Update discrimination laws to include or make more explicit that discrimination against white British people is unlawful.
- Asylum seekers who are not from recognised source countries or have engaged in forms of arrival that are either dangerous or help sustain people trafficking to be de-prioritised and obliged to process their claims in person through offices in areas of low inward migration (e.g. north of Scotland) and asylum detention to be moved to those areas.
- Greater rights with respect to short-term temporary employment for asylum seekers being processed who are deemed to have played by the rules.0 -
Boom!
Eagle out to 11 on BF...0 -
That's a shame for Sturgeon.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
After all Rajoy has such a strong mandate in Spain and is in no way likely to end up out in the cold as the only possible path to a workable Spanish government.0 -
Listened to Tusk (can't speak whatever language Juncker was using).
Next official meeting to discuss Brexit is September 16th in Bratislava.0 -
I think we'd walk out of the exit door if that was the only offer on the table and try our luck with prime brokering and looser regulations.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those are not the two available options necessarily. Our EU friends can offer us, or decline to offer us, whatever they like. If they don't want to offer the full EEA Monty, no-one can force them to. Or if they want to offer the deal Southam described, that would be very hard indeed for a UK politician to decline.MaxPB said:I don't think any Tory PM would sign up to that, the donors wouldn't be happy.
We will accept free movement and keep our current single market status or we will fully leave and put up full immigration restrictions on EU migrants. Those are the two available options, anything else would be sub-optimal in one way or another.
This is a God-awful mess by any standard.0 -
Yes. There are several variations of "Free Movement" that could result, yet a lot of media commentators see only the status quo or a points-based visa system.anotherDave said:
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.MaxPB said:
I don't think any Tory PM would sign up to that, the donors wouldn't be happy.SouthamObserver said:So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
We will accept free movement and keep our current single market status or we will fully leave and put up full immigration restrictions on EU migrants. Those are the two available options, anything else would be sub-optimal in one way or another.
You could easily tweak that to a job offer > £x, and an upper limit/transition period.
Something along the lines of Hannan's EEA proposal - for freedom of labour rather than freedom of welfare - will keep the majority of the Leave vote onside, as it will reduce the pull factors currently influencing immigration from the Continent.0 -
If Rajoy is even still there (unlikely) he'll be demanding Scotland gets in so the CFP doesnt collapse.JackW said:
And if the UK ceases to exist before BREXIT ?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/7481404440732344320 -
I picked up a copy of the Telegraph yesterday. It was cover-to-cover doom and gloom, with multiple calls for the government to Do Something to keep us in the Single Market. Even CityAM today was much the same.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@PickardJE: Senior union figures meeting today to try to "end it" - whatever that means. Aka the men in grey suits.0
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If Mr Lilico believes that has any real possibility of success outside of the pages of News Corp, the National Post and The Telegraph, he's reaching.anotherDave said:
Mr Lilico was suggesting we look to political union/grouping with Canada, NZ, and Australia.chestnut said:
The Deputy Finance Minister was telling the FT that he felt it would be much easier to deal with us as a single country just a few days ago.rcs1000 said:Re India-EU, the Indian government used to have a very detailed set of pages on EU negotiations, but I can't seem to find it. (They had one on EFTA negotiations too.)
I don't know if they're removed it, or (more likely) if my Google Fu skills are just lacking today.
The South Koreans, New Zealanders and Australians have all been talking about bi-lateral deals also.
"A CANZUK union would be a very significant geopolitical player, with a combined GDP of about three quarters of that of China, the fourth largest economic area in the world. It would have the largest land area of any union. It would have the third largest defence expenditure. It would be a very significant geopolitical player. "
http://reaction.life/so-what-next/0 -
Isnt that part of the malaise though? EU trade agreements need to be ratified by all the member states. Organised labour and in general producer interests are not fans of free trade. The process runs at the speed of the slowest country. Look how difficult politically free trade is for american politicians, in a nation that is suppose to be pretty darnJohn_M said:FPT:
I've paddled about on the EU's trade website ( http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/december/tradoc_118238.pdf).
Interesting tidbit (which illustrates how ponderous trade talks can be). The draft FTA with Singapore was completed in October 2014. It was submitted to the ECJ in July 2015. It's not yet been ratified.
For the partisan crowd, it's genuinely not a dig at the EU. It should serve as a cautionary warning to all of us that trade agreements aren't necessarily swiftly hammered out over a pint on the back of a fag packet.
Bilateral agreements can be knocked out fairly quickly if both countries are keen to do so. Of course detail is important...0 -
Watson now favourite as next Leader, suggesting he's the most likely to challenge. Best odds 11/4 from 7/2 this morning. Eagle out from 2/1 to 3/1. No-one else remotely in the frame.
Not sure either is all that good value, as it requires at least evens that Corbyn loses and I can't see either having a chance at a second shot.0 -
Eagle 14 now...0
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It hasn't changed that aspect at all.MaxPB said:
Well that's the Union saved, at least for a while. The idea that Scotland could take over our opt-outs and vetoes was pie in the sky. Glad to see a dose of reality served.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
If Scotland is to inherit the UK membership it is by QMV and does not involve the Spanish veto.0 -
If I hear the bloody words sovereign or sovereignty again....
@georgeeaton: John McDonnell writes exclusively for the NS: "Jeremy is not standing down .... Our members are sovereign."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2016/06/jeremy-corbyn-not-standing-down-172-people-cannot-drown-out-democracy0 -
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.Richard_Nabavi said:
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.anotherDave said:Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
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This is the problem. Brexit from the EU isn't mutually assured destruction for both parties. It's an Indo-Pak nuclear war. To be avoided at all costs but one side anhilated the other gravely injured but it's continuity of Civilisation intact. We've gravely misjudged the strength of our negotiating hand.0
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Wow, Eagle way out on Betfair.0
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LOL - especially to anyone who googles the name. Hint: don't!TheScreamingEagles said:I get the feeling Ron Jeremy would do a better job as Labour Leader than Jeremy Corbyn
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Whatever happens to Labour, they are more unelectable now than they have ever been in their history, and that's quite something when you consider that has mostly been their default status. Corbyn will not go, unless McDonnell and Watson beg him to, and I'm not sure even then. He is pathologically stubborn to the point of destruction. If there's a leadership contest with him on the ballot paper, he'll win by a landslide, which will result in the splitting of the Labour party. It's conceivable you could have two Labour leaders at future PMQs. Could there even be mass defections to the Limp Dims? Perhaps not, as little Timmy Farron is about as effective as Corbyn.
All this leads to an enormous opportunity for the Tories, should they unite (and they will) around the new leader. They MUST call an early election, or risk the same fate as Gordon Brown in 2010.0 -
Yehbut she's still lower odds than David MilibandWanderer said:Wow, Eagle way out on Betfair.
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PS. Ignore all that. Oddschecker clearly way behind Betfair cf Rod Crosby.Wulfrun_Phil said:Watson now favourite as next Leader, suggesting he's the most likely to challenge. Best odds 11/4 from 7/2 this morning. Eagle out from 2/1 to 3/1. No-one else remotely in the frame.
Not sure either is all that good value, as it requires at least evens that Corbyn loses and I can't see either having a chance at a second shot.0 -
Yeah don't, Ron Jeremy is an actor with a very big partSandpit said:
LOL - especially to anyone who googles the name. Hint: don't!TheScreamingEagles said:I get the feeling Ron Jeremy would do a better job as Labour Leader than Jeremy Corbyn
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I raised this very point this morning. The MPs want rid but what about the CLPs who may then threaten deselection on those that try to remove or stand against Jez.RodCrosby said:Looks like the coup has failed.
Corbyn going nowhere, Eagle would be deselected by her own constituency if she stood, and be demolished by Corbyn in a ballot anyhow - "the lesser of two Eagles", as the Corbynites briefed this morning...
It's corbynite but not as we know it.....0 -
Oh, that might be possible.MaxPB said:
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.0 -
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.MaxPB said:
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.Richard_Nabavi said:
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.anotherDave said:Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
Hope that makes sense!
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Ok she's back at 5.6 after briefly hitting 130
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Labour MPs have to unite sufficiently around one or two initial candidates. Should be locked in a room in a pretty exact replica of papal enclave, until they do so.RodCrosby said:0 -
That's my 5.6, didn't get matched. I'd be obliged if you could do so.TheScreamingEagles said:Ok she's back at 5.6 after briefly hitting 13
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Mr. Crosby, surely: "They had one shot, and successfully destroyed Eagle."?0
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Also sounds like it could phonetically be a word in all sorts of global languages...better check none of them mean "turd" or whatever...Concanvasser said:ANZUKA sounds good and is resonate of the ANZAC's.
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I'm on Tom Watson, The Blair Slayer, if he can topple Blair, he can topple a no mark like CorbymPulpstar said:
That's my 5.6, didn't get matched. I'd be obliged if you could do so.TheScreamingEagles said:Ok she's back at 5.6 after briefly hitting 13
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Well it's just a rumour for now as to what was being tabled at the gang of six meeting.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oh, that might be possible.MaxPB said:
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.0 -
I've been canvassing Corbyn's local fan club - they are more convinced than ever that he is Superman fighting off the evil traitors. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he won again.0
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Why ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm on Tom WatsonPulpstar said:
That's my 5.6, didn't get matched. I'd be obliged if you could do so.TheScreamingEagles said:Ok she's back at 5.6 after briefly hitting 13
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It doesn't make sense. EEA (and Swiss) citizens have the same rights as EU citizens in this regard. That's the whole point about the freedom of movement directive applying to the EEA countries.anotherDave said:State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.
Hope that makes sense!0 -
Tom Watson is The Blair Slayer, if he can topple Blair, he can topple a no mark like CorbymPulpstar said:
Why ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm on Tom WatsonPulpstar said:
That's my 5.6, didn't get matched. I'd be obliged if you could do so.TheScreamingEagles said:Ok she's back at 5.6 after briefly hitting 13
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There is so little liquidity on the market that i wouldn't pay any attention to it.Wanderer said:Wow, Eagle way out on Betfair.
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
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That's the choice Boris will get. He'll have to turn it down. But he'll be turning down immigration controls to save bankers.Wanderer said:
In order to be able to damage our economy by cutting immigration we will damage it by losing passporting. Cunning.SouthamObserver said:So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
Boris bats for the bankers
Boris boosts the bankers
Boris says no to immigration controls to save the bankers
And so on.
Leave has totally misread the balance of strength in this negotiation. You take out free trade - both sides want that- and what levers does the UK have left? The square root of none, I'd say.
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Be aware though that the £3 "supporters" don't have a vote in MP selections.Moses_ said:
I raised this very point this morning. The MPs want rid but what about the CLPs who may then threaten deselection on those that try to remove or stand against Jez.RodCrosby said:Looks like the coup has failed.
Corbyn going nowhere, Eagle would be deselected by her own constituency if she stood, and be demolished by Corbyn in a ballot anyhow - "the lesser of two Eagles", as the Corbynites briefed this morning...
It's corbynite but not as we know it.....0 -
It would still apply, as Richard N has pointed out on many, many occasions, the free movement clause in the EEA agreement is identical to the one written into the EU treaties.anotherDave said:
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.MaxPB said:
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.Richard_Nabavi said:
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.anotherDave said:Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
Hope that makes sense!0 -
What did they expect?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
There's no way a second Scottish referendum can take place during the EU negotiations, there would be too many balls in the air at the same time and people would be voting on hypothetical results of in-progress negotiations.0 -
Afternoon all
http://www.barkinganddagenhampost.co.uk/news/http_www_barkinganddagenhampost_co_uk_news_romanian_family_of_16_sleeping_under_north_circular_in_barking_1_4595578_1_4595578
The Daily Mail has picked up this story which takes place not 800 yards from my front door.
This is why I voted LEAVE last Thursday - not because of racism or xenophobia but because the EU has fundamentally failed large numbers of people.
I'll be more controversial - I blame the Single Market which sucks wealth from the poorest areas to the richest and since people will always go to the money, the people come too. An entire family come looking for work and finish up under the North Circular Road.
There are multiple failings - the family itself is not beyond reproach for their actions but the lesson remains - if people think there is a better life for them somewhere and they can get there, they will. It's human nature and I understand it.
I also see a third of Lithuanians have emigrated since the country joined the EU - what are the statistics for the other Baltic states and parts of Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia - I don't know.
What I do know is the EU has failed on a human level - instead of helping the economic regeneration of eastern Europe after 1989, it created the Single Market which has become a pool of cheap labour to power the British and German economies but without recognition of the social, political, cultural and above all human implications for the continent.0 -
Corbyn is about to aannounce that Blair should be tried for war crimes. Can you imagine how many Labour members are going to join that day ?
Jez will ascend to the heavens before stepping down in their eyes.0 -
No Rajoy hasn't saved the Union. Or at least not in the way that you think. He's saying Scotland gets what the UK gets. Which improves Nicola's hand in the longer term. Which weakens the PM's hand. Which nudges A50 a bit further down the tracks.0
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I always said that...Tom Watson will be the man that does itTheScreamingEagles said:
Tom Watson is The Blair Slayer, if he can topple Blair, he can topple a no mark like CorbymPulpstar said:
Why ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm on Tom WatsonPulpstar said:
That's my 5.6, didn't get matched. I'd be obliged if you could do so.TheScreamingEagles said:Ok she's back at 5.6 after briefly hitting 13
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Is the concept of being a self-governing nation really so abhorrent to those in favour of Scotland leaving the UK? Do you have to be either a subset of the UK, or a subset of the EU?Lowlander said:
That's a shame for Sturgeon.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
After all Rajoy has such a strong mandate in Spain and is in no way likely to end up out in the cold as the only possible path to a workable Spanish government.0 -
The worrying thing is, would he make that choice?SouthamObserver said:
That's the choice Boris will get. He'll have to turn it down. But he'll be turning down immigration controls to save bankers.Wanderer said:
In order to be able to damage our economy by cutting immigration we will damage it by losing passporting. Cunning.SouthamObserver said:So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
Boris bats for the bankers
Boris boosts the bankers
Boris says no to immigration controls to save the bankers
And so on.
Leave has totally misread the balance of strength in this negotiation. You take out free trade - both sides want that- and what levers does the UK have left? The square root of none, I'd say.0 -
There is no way on God's earth that he is going. The prize is too big. A far left party with 10% of the vote is far more important to Corbyn than a centre left one with a chance of being the government. Labour members are happy to help him achieve that goal. He is home and dry.tyson said:
There is so little liquidity on the market that i wouldn't pay any attention to it.Wanderer said:Wow, Eagle way out on Betfair.
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
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@iainmartin1: Paris rolls out plan to attract London's investment bankers... https://t.co/7QjJGKxSLY
Wow, who saw that coming? Oh, wait...0 -
Rajoy has his own issues with Catalonia and other parts of regional Spain. He is politically unable to offer a separatist region a separate deal - whatever he offers to Edinburgh, Barcelona will want one day.YellowSubmarine said:No Rajoy hasn't saved the Union. Or at least not in the way that you think. He's saying Scotland gets what the UK gets. Which improves Nicola's hand in the longer term. Which weakens the PM's hand. Which nudges A50 a bit further down the tracks.
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The situation is so extraordinarily fluid that Spain's position is utterly rigid until it isn't and frankly the only UK leader that has a grip is Nicola Sturgeon :Lowlander said:
If Rajoy is even still there (unlikely) he'll be demanding Scotland gets in so the CFP doesnt collapse.JackW said:
And if the UK ceases to exist before BREXIT ?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
Dave - Demob happy
Jezza - Mob happy
Boris - Happy not to be seen
Gove - Not seen and not heard
Farron - As Above-lite
Ruth - The Lioness of the North has lost her choppers
Kezia - Found her voice months too late
Falconer - Thought to be on holiday in the Bermuda Triangle.
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The French are being very hospitable to us.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Paris rolls out plan to attract London's investment bankers... https://t.co/7QjJGKxSLY
Wow, who saw that coming? Oh, wait...
I might even stop saying rude things about them for a while.0 -
I seem to have entered a nether world in which I am right about absolutely everything (except England losing to Iceland).TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
That said, if Rajoy were no longer Spanish PM the situation might change very quickly. The Scottish situation is not analogous to Catalonia declaring independence and then looking for fast track EU entry.
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If there was a leadership contest would you join back to vote?SouthamObserver said:
There is no way on God's earth that he is going. The prize is too big. A far left party with 10% of the vote is far more important to Corbyn than a centre left one with a chance of being the government. Labour members are happy to help him achieve that goal. He is home and dry.tyson said:
There is so little liquidity on the market that i wouldn't pay any attention to it.Wanderer said:Wow, Eagle way out on Betfair.
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
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If the UK is not an EU member state, being an EU citizen in the UK is being a foreign national.MaxPB said:
It would still apply, as Richard N has pointed out on many, many occasions, the free movement clause in the EEA agreement is identical to the one written into the EU treaties.anotherDave said:
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.MaxPB said:
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.Richard_Nabavi said:
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.anotherDave said:Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
Hope that makes sense!
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I see Sarah Vine has written a long piece in the Mail today...
Interesting that we've heard more from Mrs Micheael Gove than we've heard from Mr Michael Gove himself?0 -
Speaking from experience, the nether world doesn't last as long as you hoped, so enjoy it whilst it lasts.SouthamObserver said:
I seem to have entered a nether world in which I am right about absolutely everything (except England losing to Iceland).TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
That said, if Rajoy were no longer Spanish PM the situation might change very quickly. The Scottish situation is not analogous to Catalonia declaring independence and then looking for fast track EU entry.0 -
Well Cameron did one thing right in recognising quickly that our best piece of leverage was the risk to the EU of being left in limbo with no Article 50, whilst dissenters in various other EU states weigh up their options. Of maybe he just didn't want his name on it so arrived at the right tactic by accident.Wanderer said:
The worrying thing is, would he make that choice?SouthamObserver said:
That's the choice Boris will get. He'll have to turn it down. But he'll be turning down immigration controls to save bankers.Wanderer said:
In order to be able to damage our economy by cutting immigration we will damage it by losing passporting. Cunning.SouthamObserver said:So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
Boris bats for the bankers
Boris boosts the bankers
Boris says no to immigration controls to save the bankers
And so on.
Leave has totally misread the balance of strength in this negotiation. You take out free trade - both sides want that- and what levers does the UK have left? The square root of none, I'd say.
But the Leave campaign has been warned from the beginning that the UK's position would be poor, and all we got back from them was some crap about how we were such a large economy etc. so everyone would offer us amazing terms.
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Quite so. And the rUK trade links for Scotland are worth approximately 8x what the EU trade is worth so the critical issue is whether Scotland can have a single market with rUK as we have had for the last 300 years or so.Sandpit said:
What did they expect?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
There's no way a second Scottish referendum can take place during the EU negotiations, there would be too many balls in the air at the same time and people would be voting on hypothetical results of in-progress negotiations.
If rUK stay in the single market then the single market between Scotland and rUK remains intact so independence and an application to join the EU is on the table. If the UK is not in the single market an independent Scotland would be committing suicide by applying. The SNP need to wait and see what the outcome is. Ironically, not being in the Single Market makes the chances of the UK breaking up much less but I still think we should go for it.0 -
No Tory PM could walk away from the City like that. Frankly, no PM could. But it's only a Tory one that could get us into this ridiculous position in the first place.Wanderer said:
The worrying thing is, would he make that choice?SouthamObserver said:
That's the choice Boris will get. He'll have to turn it down. But he'll be turning down immigration controls to save bankers.Wanderer said:
In order to be able to damage our economy by cutting immigration we will damage it by losing passporting. Cunning.SouthamObserver said:So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
Boris bats for the bankers
Boris boosts the bankers
Boris says no to immigration controls to save the bankers
And so on.
Leave has totally misread the balance of strength in this negotiation. You take out free trade - both sides want that- and what levers does the UK have left? The square root of none, I'd say.
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If we are in the EEA the rules apply exactly the same as they do in the EU to the basic principle of freedom of movement. It is freedom of movement for EEA citizens not just EU citizens.anotherDave said:
If the UK is not an EU member state, being an EU citizen in the UK is being a foreign national.MaxPB said:
It would still apply, as Richard N has pointed out on many, many occasions, the free movement clause in the EEA agreement is identical to the one written into the EU treaties.anotherDave said:
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.MaxPB said:
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.Richard_Nabavi said:
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.anotherDave said:Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
Hope that makes sense!0 -
By my calculation, the FTSE 250 has recovered almost half its Brexit drop.0
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Recreational sex ?Pulpstar said:
Why ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm on Tom WatsonPulpstar said:
That's my 5.6, didn't get matched. I'd be obliged if you could do so.TheScreamingEagles said:Ok she's back at 5.6 after briefly hitting 13
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Fining universities for admitting foreign students would put a rocket up them as far as helping to improve British pre-university education is concerned. Better still, make the universities do some community service, teaching pre-university students in Britain. I don't mean doing PR for their own institutions, saying how they fall over themselves to try to get oiks to apply from the dirtiest smelliest areas but sadly the oiks are just so unwilling, being dirty feckless oiks. Measure them on results. If they don't admit more British students, increase the amount of community teaching service they have to do the next year. They know their subject? Well they can teach it to those who don't. If they can't, they don't know it properly.MaxPB said:As I've said time and again, mass immigration is caused by a poorly designed benefits system and an education system that isn't fit for purpose.
Come on, Oxford, Cambridge, others in the golden triangle and the Russell Group, you can manage it. It is British people who pay tax so that British universities don't have to. Ban them from spending money on recruitment drives abroad, in places such as China and Saudi.
Of course this will never happen, because the structure of the British education system has elitism written all the way through it as if it were a stick of Brighton rock.
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Did you read the article Mr Martin linked to?Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Paris rolls out plan to attract London's investment bankers... https://t.co/7QjJGKxSLY
Wow, who saw that coming? Oh, wait...
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Of course. You have to try. But Corbyn will win. The membership would prefer a Tory government to a Labour party led by someone who is not Jeremy Corbyn.tyson said:
If there was a leadership contest would you join back to vote?SouthamObserver said:
There is no way on God's earth that he is going. The prize is too big. A far left party with 10% of the vote is far more important to Corbyn than a centre left one with a chance of being the government. Labour members are happy to help him achieve that goal. He is home and dry.tyson said:
There is so little liquidity on the market that i wouldn't pay any attention to it.Wanderer said:Wow, Eagle way out on Betfair.
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
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YOU failed to see the irony in Martin's post I think!Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Paris rolls out plan to attract London's investment bankers... https://t.co/7QjJGKxSLY
Wow, who saw that coming? Oh, wait...0 -
My guess would be more like 20%, in any case...SouthamObserver said:
There is no way on God's earth that he is going. The prize is too big. A far left party with 10% of the vote is far more important to Corbyn...tyson said:
There is so little liquidity on the market that i wouldn't pay any attention to it.Wanderer said:Wow, Eagle way out on Betfair.
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
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I did some research and posted on it last week. Poland is in trouble. It has a low fertility rate and high emigration. They're looking to import Belorussians to help look after the Polish elderly, fix the Polish boilers and whatnot. The expectation is that the Polish emigres are not going to return (the average salary in Poland is around a third of the UK).stodge said:Afternoon all
http://www.barkinganddagenhampost.co.uk/news/http_www_barkinganddagenhampost_co_uk_news_romanian_family_of_16_sleeping_under_north_circular_in_barking_1_4595578_1_4595578
The Daily Mail has picked up this story which takes place not 800 yards from my front door.
This is why I voted LEAVE last Thursday - not because of racism or xenophobia but because the EU has fundamentally failed large numbers of people.
I'll be more controversial - I blame the Single Market which sucks wealth from the poorest areas to the richest and since people will always go to the money, the people come too. An entire family come looking for work and finish up under the North Circular Road.
There are multiple failings - the family itself is not beyond reproach for their actions but the lesson remains - if people think there is a better life for them somewhere and they can get there, they will. It's human nature and I understand it.
I also see a third of Lithuanians have emigrated since the country joined the EU - what are the statistics for the other Baltic states and parts of Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia - I don't know.
What I do know is the EU has failed on a human level - instead of helping the economic regeneration of eastern Europe after 1989, it created the Single Market which has become a pool of cheap labour to power the British and German economies but without recognition of the social, political, cultural and above all human implications for the continent.
I completely agree with your comments. When we talk about immigration, we're consistently looking down the wrong end of the telescope. We've performed a kind of intellectual beggar-thy-neighbour, and now complain about it.0 -
TBH I think that’s a bit hard on Farron. He’s doing his damndest to be heard but the London Media have decided no, and that seems to be it.JackW said:
The situation is so extraordinarily fluid that Spain's position is utterly rigid until it isn't and frankly the only UK leader that has a grip is Nicola Sturgeon :Lowlander said:
If Rajoy is even still there (unlikely) he'll be demanding Scotland gets in so the CFP doesnt collapse.JackW said:
And if the UK ceases to exist before BREXIT ?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
Dave - Demob happy
Jezza - Mob happy
Boris - Happy not to be seen
Gove - Not seen and not heard
Farron - As Above-lite
Ruth - The Lioness of the North has lost her choppers
Kezia - Found her voice months too late
Falconer - Thought to be on holiday in the Bermuda Triangle.0 -
On topic, presumably the rules for an election will be set by the NEC. Do we know which way it would be likely to go in terms of questions that might favour Corbyn or hinder him?0
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Do they have to be treated as if they were UK citizens? Housing benefit, tax credits, NHS etc?Richard_Tyndall said:
If we are in the EEA the rules apply exactly the same as they do in the EU to the basic principle of freedom of movement. It is freedom of movement for EEA citizens not just EU citizens.anotherDave said:
If the UK is not an EU member state, being an EU citizen in the UK is being a foreign national.MaxPB said:
It would still apply, as Richard N has pointed out on many, many occasions, the free movement clause in the EEA agreement is identical to the one written into the EU treaties.anotherDave said:
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.MaxPB said:
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.Richard_Nabavi said:
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.anotherDave said:Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
Hope that makes sense!
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The Moggster's sister?JonCisBack said:
Also sounds like it could phonetically be a word in all sorts of global languages...better check none of them mean "turd" or whatever...Concanvasser said:ANZUKA sounds good and is resonate of the ANZAC's.
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Superb posts on the previous thread by Travelgall (new poster) at 2:22 concerning financial services and passporting.0
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anotherDave said:
Did you read the article Mr Martin linked to?
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Whilst there would obviously still have been massive market turmoil - possibly large than what we are seeing now - I can say with confidence that Salmond would have at least have had a fucking plan which would be being enacted right now.Scott_P said:@euanmccolm: make no mistake, alex salmond came within a few hundred thousand votes of being boris in 2014.
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Don't profess to know the machinations of the Labour Party but could some of the recent events b connected to Chilcott. In other words if Corbyn is back on the back benches then it limits the damage he can actually do to the Balirites from the depart have box as LOTO , many of which are the ones that agreed to the war and have just resigned and issued a vote of no confidence.Pulpstar said:Corbyn is about to aannounce that Blair should be tried for war crimes. Can you imagine how many Labour members are going to join that day ?
Jez will ascend to the heavens before stepping down in their eyes.
(Or perhaps I should just adjust my tin foil hat)0 -
He gets a lot of shit from my FB friends who used to love him.SeanT said:
Not so sure. My ultra-Corbynite friends are wobbling again. Europe has shaken them.SouthamObserver said:Corbyn will walk it. Labour members are prepared to kill the Labour party to keep him in place.
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Presumably an independent Scotland that remained a member of the EU would like to have the same relationship with the UK as the Republic of Ireland. Why would this not be viable?DavidL said:
Quite so. And the rUK trade links for Scotland are worth approximately 8x what the EU trade is worth so the critical issue is whether Scotland can have a single market with rUK as we have had for the last 300 years or so.Sandpit said:
What did they expect?TheScreamingEagles said:I think Southam's been pointing this out for years
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
There's no way a second Scottish referendum can take place during the EU negotiations, there would be too many balls in the air at the same time and people would be voting on hypothetical results of in-progress negotiations.
If rUK stay in the single market then the single market between Scotland and rUK remains intact so independence and an application to join the EU is on the table. If the UK is not in the single market an independent Scotland would be committing suicide by applying. The SNP need to wait and see what the outcome is. Ironically, not being in the Single Market makes the chances of the UK breaking up much less but I still think we should go for it.0 -
No, but as a part of the EEA agreement we would recognise EU citizens and that they have the same rights as our own citizens. It would be no different. The only way to stop mass migration is to ensure demand for workers can be filled by UK citizens which means improving our education system and crucially make it much more difficult to be unproductive.anotherDave said:
If the UK is not an EU member state, being an EU citizen in the UK is being a foreign national.MaxPB said:
It would still apply, as Richard N has pointed out on many, many occasions, the free movement clause in the EEA agreement is identical to the one written into the EU treaties.anotherDave said:
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.MaxPB said:
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.Richard_Nabavi said:
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.anotherDave said:Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
Hope that makes sense!0 -
Luckily the EU needs a trade deal more than we do
@lindayueh: SMMT: UK car industry needs “unrestricted & reciprocal access” to Single Market or risk becoming 2nd tier;>800k jobs https://t.co/9TTon5oaCd0
